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Lookin to continue a good week and stay in the black... Let's go Niners! You can check out all my past picks at www.byeweekpicks.com (not a tout I assure you).
Week 10 Record : 2-1
2007: 18-19-1
Units: +1.01
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* San Fran +10 (-120) over Seattle
(Note: Got this line at bodog)
The Sehawks are a below average and do not deserve to be such a big favorite in this contest. Statistically, these two teams are nearly identical. The only advantage the Hawks have is their passing game and it is raining and windy in Seattle and I don't see the Hawks passing often in this game. A major reason I have a play on the Niners is because there are 25 trends favoring them - the most I have had in the last 4 seasons. One trend is 35-9 over the last 23 seasons, including 15-2 over the last 10 seasons (the average score of these games was 22.8 to 22.4)! Another trend plays on San Fran due to their recent poor defense and is 63-19 (77%). Seattle's offense is poor as they average only 3.5 YPR (27th) and 7.1 YPPA (13th). Alexander is listed as doubtful, but it really doesn't matter because he is playing very poorly this year. Defensively, they are not much better as they allow 3.81 (11th) and 7 YPPA (14th). They are still an overrated football team and have lost 3 out of their last 4 SU and ATS. Seattle is 4-4 and has played one of the easiest schedules in the league (30th).
The Niners are coming off 6 consecutive losses and historically these teams have faired well ATS in their next game. In fact, underdogs are 77-40 ATS after 6 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. The Niners running game is decent averaging 4.23 YPR (14th) and Gore is listed as probable. Their passing game is pitiful as they average only 4.95 YPPA. Defensively they are solid allowing 3.9 YPR (15th) and 6.71 YPPA (11th). You can see how similar these numbers are to the Seahawks. I also feel the Niners have an emotional advantage in this game as the head coach M. Nolan's father has passed away this week. I am taking the Niners as a 1* play.
Week 10 Record : 2-1
2007: 18-19-1
Units: +1.01
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* San Fran +10 (-120) over Seattle
(Note: Got this line at bodog)
The Sehawks are a below average and do not deserve to be such a big favorite in this contest. Statistically, these two teams are nearly identical. The only advantage the Hawks have is their passing game and it is raining and windy in Seattle and I don't see the Hawks passing often in this game. A major reason I have a play on the Niners is because there are 25 trends favoring them - the most I have had in the last 4 seasons. One trend is 35-9 over the last 23 seasons, including 15-2 over the last 10 seasons (the average score of these games was 22.8 to 22.4)! Another trend plays on San Fran due to their recent poor defense and is 63-19 (77%). Seattle's offense is poor as they average only 3.5 YPR (27th) and 7.1 YPPA (13th). Alexander is listed as doubtful, but it really doesn't matter because he is playing very poorly this year. Defensively, they are not much better as they allow 3.81 (11th) and 7 YPPA (14th). They are still an overrated football team and have lost 3 out of their last 4 SU and ATS. Seattle is 4-4 and has played one of the easiest schedules in the league (30th).
The Niners are coming off 6 consecutive losses and historically these teams have faired well ATS in their next game. In fact, underdogs are 77-40 ATS after 6 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. The Niners running game is decent averaging 4.23 YPR (14th) and Gore is listed as probable. Their passing game is pitiful as they average only 4.95 YPPA. Defensively they are solid allowing 3.9 YPR (15th) and 6.71 YPPA (11th). You can see how similar these numbers are to the Seahawks. I also feel the Niners have an emotional advantage in this game as the head coach M. Nolan's father has passed away this week. I am taking the Niners as a 1* play.
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