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Looking to bounce back from a terrible week 8. All of my past picks are posted on www.byeweekpicks.com (not a tout I assure you).
Week 9
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Only 3 plays this week. Oakland has a 42-3 straight up trend favoring them, but I do not trust McNown at the helm. I also like Tenn, but I am shying away from them because of their lack of offense.
2* Indianapolis +6 over N.E.
This is one of the most anticipated regular season games in years, and I usually don't wager on these types of contests. But, Indy looks like a strong play this week. I have wagered against the Patriots several times this year and have not fared well, but as I said before you have to look at each week objectively and I don't feel that the Pats should be such a big road favorite. Statistically, these two teams are nearly exactly the same, and New England is on the road therefore this line is wrong. The odds makers have to increase the lines because they are getting so much action on the Pats, and we have to take advantage of this. The line always catches up with teams. For example, last year the Chargers were blowing everyone out early, but when the line caught up to them they did not cover 5 out of their last 7 games. New England's running game is not that strong as they average 4.2 YPR (15th). They will be facing an Indy team that allows 4.06 YPR (13th). In the air, T. Brady has been having an amazing year averaging 9 YPPA (1st). But, Indy has one of the best passing defenses in the league allowing only 165 YPG (1st in the NFL) and 5.6 YPPA (2nd). I don't see Brady eating up the Colts D as he has other teams this year. Indy's rushing game is better that New England's averaging 4.43 YPR (10th). Manning also has been lights out this year and is averaging 7.87 YPPA (5th). As you can see the Colts have a more balanced attack than the Patriots. Though the Patriots passing D is strong allowing 6.36 YPR (6th), but their rushing defense is poor allowing 4.24 YPR (23rd). There are 9 very strong trends favoring the Colts this week. One trend plays against N.E. for their recent rushing domination and is 52-20 ATS (72%). Another trend against the Pats is: teams that have won by more than 14 points in each of the last 3 weeks (New England) are just 2-18-1 ATS when visiting a team with a winning percentage of .500 or higher (Indy), including 1-8 ATS if the road team is also unbeaten on the season (New England). Yet another trend favors Indy and is 29-5-1 ATS the last 25 years, and is 9-1 ATS because Indy is a home favorite. The stats and trends add up to a Colts 2* play.
2* Tampa Bay -3 (-120) over Arizona
Buy the 1/2 point to bring the line to 3
I lost my 3* play on T.B. last week and I am going to ride them this week. Tampa should have won last week but had costly turnovers and I think they will handle Arizona easily this week. Arizona's running game is terrible averaging only 3.8 YPR (22nd in NFL). Their pass game is not much better averaging only 6.79 YPPA (17th), and Warner is banged up. This week they will be facing a very good Buccaneers defense that allows only 16.8 PPG (9th). Tampa's D allows only 3.86 YPR (11th) and an amazing 6.19 YPPA (4th). So, Arizona will not be able to move the ball in this contest. Tampa's running game is average gaining 4.15 YPR (16th). Garcia has been having a very good year (except for his 3 INT's last week) and is averaging 7.57 YPPA (10th). They will be facing a bad Arizona rushing D that allows 4.15 YPR (21st). Their pass D is pretty good allowing 6.5 YPPA (9th). My Super System has the line at T.B. -11.3, a 7.8 point difference. The Super System is 15-9 (63%) this year when the difference is 5 or greater. Tampa is coming off two consecutive losses and Gruden will have his team up for this game; Gruden coached teams are 18-6 ATS after a loss of 3 points or less.
1* New Orleans -3 over Jax
I don't think that the Saints are the team they were last year but they looked improved the last few weeks. I don't see Q. Gray leading the Jags to a victory on the road against a hot Saints team. With Gray at the helm the Jags will choose to run the ball as they did last week (ran 44 times, passed 16 times). They will not be able to run effectively against a Saints D that allows only 3.63 YPR (5th in the NFL). The Saint's pass D is bad allowing 8.65 YPPA, but this will not come into play because Gray will not be passing often. The Jags D may not allow a lot of points, but statistically they are not a good defense and soon the points will catch up to the yards. The Jags allow 4.2 YPR (22nd) and 7.5 YPPA (25th). The Saints should have no problem moving the ball on this defense. The Saint's numbers over the season are not impressive (they average 3.6 YPPA and 6.05 YPPA), but the last 3 games they have been much improved. The Saints are -9 in turnover ratio that has lead to their losses and this is unlikely to continue as Brees has only 1 interception in the last 3 games (9 in the previous 4). There are 4 trends playing against the Jags based on their underdog victory last week including a 37-12 ATS (over last 5 years) trend. Unfortunately, my Super System has the Jags as a 2 point favorite (but the stats and trends outweigh this) so I will only make the Saints a 1*.
Week 9
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Only 3 plays this week. Oakland has a 42-3 straight up trend favoring them, but I do not trust McNown at the helm. I also like Tenn, but I am shying away from them because of their lack of offense.
2* Indianapolis +6 over N.E.
This is one of the most anticipated regular season games in years, and I usually don't wager on these types of contests. But, Indy looks like a strong play this week. I have wagered against the Patriots several times this year and have not fared well, but as I said before you have to look at each week objectively and I don't feel that the Pats should be such a big road favorite. Statistically, these two teams are nearly exactly the same, and New England is on the road therefore this line is wrong. The odds makers have to increase the lines because they are getting so much action on the Pats, and we have to take advantage of this. The line always catches up with teams. For example, last year the Chargers were blowing everyone out early, but when the line caught up to them they did not cover 5 out of their last 7 games. New England's running game is not that strong as they average 4.2 YPR (15th). They will be facing an Indy team that allows 4.06 YPR (13th). In the air, T. Brady has been having an amazing year averaging 9 YPPA (1st). But, Indy has one of the best passing defenses in the league allowing only 165 YPG (1st in the NFL) and 5.6 YPPA (2nd). I don't see Brady eating up the Colts D as he has other teams this year. Indy's rushing game is better that New England's averaging 4.43 YPR (10th). Manning also has been lights out this year and is averaging 7.87 YPPA (5th). As you can see the Colts have a more balanced attack than the Patriots. Though the Patriots passing D is strong allowing 6.36 YPR (6th), but their rushing defense is poor allowing 4.24 YPR (23rd). There are 9 very strong trends favoring the Colts this week. One trend plays against N.E. for their recent rushing domination and is 52-20 ATS (72%). Another trend against the Pats is: teams that have won by more than 14 points in each of the last 3 weeks (New England) are just 2-18-1 ATS when visiting a team with a winning percentage of .500 or higher (Indy), including 1-8 ATS if the road team is also unbeaten on the season (New England). Yet another trend favors Indy and is 29-5-1 ATS the last 25 years, and is 9-1 ATS because Indy is a home favorite. The stats and trends add up to a Colts 2* play.
2* Tampa Bay -3 (-120) over Arizona
Buy the 1/2 point to bring the line to 3
I lost my 3* play on T.B. last week and I am going to ride them this week. Tampa should have won last week but had costly turnovers and I think they will handle Arizona easily this week. Arizona's running game is terrible averaging only 3.8 YPR (22nd in NFL). Their pass game is not much better averaging only 6.79 YPPA (17th), and Warner is banged up. This week they will be facing a very good Buccaneers defense that allows only 16.8 PPG (9th). Tampa's D allows only 3.86 YPR (11th) and an amazing 6.19 YPPA (4th). So, Arizona will not be able to move the ball in this contest. Tampa's running game is average gaining 4.15 YPR (16th). Garcia has been having a very good year (except for his 3 INT's last week) and is averaging 7.57 YPPA (10th). They will be facing a bad Arizona rushing D that allows 4.15 YPR (21st). Their pass D is pretty good allowing 6.5 YPPA (9th). My Super System has the line at T.B. -11.3, a 7.8 point difference. The Super System is 15-9 (63%) this year when the difference is 5 or greater. Tampa is coming off two consecutive losses and Gruden will have his team up for this game; Gruden coached teams are 18-6 ATS after a loss of 3 points or less.
1* New Orleans -3 over Jax
I don't think that the Saints are the team they were last year but they looked improved the last few weeks. I don't see Q. Gray leading the Jags to a victory on the road against a hot Saints team. With Gray at the helm the Jags will choose to run the ball as they did last week (ran 44 times, passed 16 times). They will not be able to run effectively against a Saints D that allows only 3.63 YPR (5th in the NFL). The Saint's pass D is bad allowing 8.65 YPPA, but this will not come into play because Gray will not be passing often. The Jags D may not allow a lot of points, but statistically they are not a good defense and soon the points will catch up to the yards. The Jags allow 4.2 YPR (22nd) and 7.5 YPPA (25th). The Saints should have no problem moving the ball on this defense. The Saint's numbers over the season are not impressive (they average 3.6 YPPA and 6.05 YPPA), but the last 3 games they have been much improved. The Saints are -9 in turnover ratio that has lead to their losses and this is unlikely to continue as Brees has only 1 interception in the last 3 games (9 in the previous 4). There are 4 trends playing against the Jags based on their underdog victory last week including a 37-12 ATS (over last 5 years) trend. Unfortunately, my Super System has the Jags as a 2 point favorite (but the stats and trends outweigh this) so I will only make the Saints a 1*.
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