Sunday Trends and Indexes 11/04

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, November 4

Good Luck on day #308 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

NFL trends for Week 9 action………

-- Raiders failed to cover last eight tries as a favorite, and only seven of last twenty-seven home games.

-- Titans covered four of last fourteen as home favorite.

-- Saints are 4-12-2 vs spread at home vs AFC teams.

-- Vikings covered one of last six as home underdog.

-- Seattle is 5-13 vs spread in game after their last 18 byes.

-- Jets covered three of last nine against NFC teams.

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[pm530]

Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up college football Saturday

13) If McFadden of Arkansas doesn't win the Heisman, they should do away with the award; I know Matt Ryan is darling of the media, playing in the northeast and all, but there is no comparison-- McFadden just ran for over 300 yards in a SEC game, playing a decent part of the game at QB.

12) Strangest stat line ever seen for a QB; Kirby Freeman, in Miami's 19-16 OT loss to NC State, completed only one pass all day in 14 attempts, but it went for an 84-yard touchdown.

11) Notre Dame likes to drag out their green jerseys for USC games; how about using them for Navy games, so you could tell the two teams apart on TV? Plus, Irish have better chance to win against Navy, so maybe the green jerseys would help.

10) Virginia now has six wins by five or less points after they survived missed Wake Forest FG in last minute and beat the Deacons, 17-16. Cavaliers are 7-2, and an exciting 7-2.

9) Navy beat Notre Dame for first time since '63, and now the Irish are 1-8; when the two coaches shook hands at midfield after the game, they should have just exchanged jobs, or at the very least, exchanged paychecks, because Charlie Weis ain't coming close to earning his $3M a year salary.

8) LSU-Alabama game was as good an any football game I've seen in recent memory. What emotion, what effort.

7) Kansas 76, Nebraska 39, after being 1-36 in their previous 37 games against the Huskers. Mark Mangino is the national coach of the year, and it isn't very close.

6) Remember this about Kansas; they sold their home game vs arch-rival Missouri to folks at Arrowhead Stadium; now it could be a game that determines whether Jayhawks will have a shot at winning an extremely unlikely national title. Nov 24 is the date; there could some embarrassed Kansas folks, for selling out the Cinderella team of 2007.

5) South Carolina gave up 500+ yards on ground, has lost its last three games and plays Florida next. Very few teams I can remember allowed 500+ rushing yards in one game.

4) Toledo has quietly become an explosive offensive team, as Rockets hung 52 points on an opponent Saturday.

3) I thought Baylor was making progress in the Big 12 in '05, then they switched to spread offense and are back to being a Big 12 doormat, covering one of last twelve league games.

2) New Mexico was having a good year, then went to TCU and got waxed, 37-0. Strange score-- thought Lobos would play better than that.

1) Before passing away last spring, Indiana coach Hoeppner established "Play 13" as the goal/motto of the Hoosiers' '07 season; in other words, play in a bowl, a 13th game. Indiana won its sixth game Saturday, beating Ball State 38-20, so now they have met their goal, and are bowl eligible. Good for them.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

New England at Indianapolis
New England has put fear into the rest of the league with a juggernaut that continues to ram through teams with the greatest of ease. The latest exhibition came last week with the Patriots' 52-7 dismantling of Washington in which Tom Brady threw for three scores and ran for two more. It was the eighth straight game that Brady has thrown at least three TD passes -- an NFL record -- and he continues to be on pace to shatter Peyton Manning's single-season record of TD passes in a season. He has made the most of his revamped receiving corps of Moss, Welker and Stallworth and comes into the game with a sky-high 136.2 passer rating. But if there is one team that is not intimidated by this show, it is the Manning-led Colts. Manning has put up respectable numbers (13 TDs, 102.9 passer rating), but they are not gaudy largely because the Colts are actually running a balanced offense. The rushing attack behind Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith ranks fifth in the league (140.3 ypg) and leads the NFL with 12 TDs. And the defense has continued to improve under Tony Dungy and comes in ranked No. 1 against the pass (165.4 ypg) while only allowing 14.6 points per game. Indianapolis has won the last three meetings between these two teams, including last year's AFC championship (38-34) in which the Colts overcame a 21-3 halftime deficit. At home, Indy looks like a good underdog pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored straight up by 4. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Game 403-404: Washington at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.246; NY Jets 126.757
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Green Bay at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.795; Kansas City 132.752
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 34
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Arizona at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 124.963; Tampa Bay 134.556
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 9 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Carolina at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.820; Tennessee 136.585
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 11; 32
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4); Under

Game 411-412: San Francisco at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 117.961; Atlanta 126.180
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Under

Game 413-414: Jacksonville at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 133.502; New Orleans 132.156
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Denver at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.200; Detroit 126.807
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Cincinnati at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.588; Buffalo 132.109
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+1); Under

Game 419-420: San Diego at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 135.341; Minnesota 131.035
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+7 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.003; Cleveland 128.691
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1); Over

Game 423-424: New England at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: New England 146.796; Indianapolis 150.705
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4; 59
Vegas Line: New England by 6; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+6); Over

Game 425-426: Houston at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 126.566; Oakland 126.504
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

Game 427-428: Dallas at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.308; Philadelphia 131.158
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Game 431-432: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.093; Pittsburgh 141.036
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15; 32
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7 1/2); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, November 4
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WASHINGTON (4 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 7) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 41-64 ATS (-29.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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GREEN BAY (6 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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ARIZONA (3 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 4) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CAROLINA (4 - 3) at TENNESSEE (5 - 2) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (- 9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 70-41 ATS (+24.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 5) at ATLANTA (1 - 6) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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DENVER (3 - 4) at DETROIT (5 - 2) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CINCINNATI (2 - 5) at BUFFALO (3 - 4) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SAN DIEGO (4 - 3) at MINNESOTA (2 - 5) - 11/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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SEATTLE (4 - 3) at CLEVELAND (4 - 3) - 11/4/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 0) - 11/4/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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HOUSTON (3 - 5) at OAKLAND (2 - 5) - 11/4/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-44 ATS (-27.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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DALLAS (6 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) - 11/4/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 115-81 ATS (+25.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, November 5
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BALTIMORE (4 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) - 11/5/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, November 4th

Week 9 Byes: Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, St. Louis

Washington at NY Jets, 1:00 EST
Washington: 7-2 Under off a loss by 28+ points
NY Jets: 21-6 ATS off a home division loss

Green Bay at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS in road games
Kansas City: 2-8 ATS off BB wins

Arizona at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 12-3 Over as a road underdog
Tampa Bay: 6-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

Carolina at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 8-2 ATS as a road underdog
Tennessee: 11-1 Over off BB wins by 6 points or less

San Francisco at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 6-1 ATS off BB losses by 10+ points
Atlanta: 8-1 Under as a home favorite

Jacksonville at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 13-4 Under in dome stadiums
New Orleans: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite

Denver at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Denver: 6-0 ATS away off an Under
Detroit: 8-19 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games

Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 1-8 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

San Diego at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 17-5 ATS off a win by 21+ points
Minnesota: 1-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Seattle at Cleveland, 4:05 EST
Seattle: 0-8 ATS off a division win by 21+ points
Cleveland: 6-0 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less

New England at Indianapolis, 4:15 EST
New England: 7-1 Over as a favorite
Indianapolis: 8-0 ATS off a road win by 21+ points

Houston at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Houston: 10-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3
Oakland: 3-13 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:15 EST NBC
Dallas: 8-2 Over as a road favorite
Philadelphia: 13-3 Over as an underdog


Monday, November 5th

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 EST ESPN
Baltimore: 18-5 ATS off a loss as a favorite
Pittsburgh: 9-1 Over at home off a win

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


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Sunday, November 4
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Packers (6-1) @ Chiefs (4-3)—Pack off dramatic OT win in Denver Monday, is back on the road, on short work week, vs solid Chief defense that is coming off bye. KC won four of last five games after 4-1 start; they scored 3-10-7 in their losses, 20.5 pg in wins. Pack is 3-0 on road, giving up 13-16-13 points. Green Bay has just two TD’s on last 12 visits to red zone, but they’ve only lost one game this year, and they led 17-7 at halftime of that one. Chiefs had 121-126 rushing yards in last two games, after averaging 64 ypg in first three weeks. KC defends run well, unlike Denver, so Favre is going to get less single coverage on his WRs, which is how he hit the two long passes Monday night. Under is 5-2 in Chief games this season.

Redskins (4-3) @ Jets (1-7)—Second-year QB Clemens gets first NFL start in week before bye for Jets, who lost last five games, failing to score TD in last two home games (20 drives); in their last eight trips to red zone, Jets have no TD’s, six FG’s- they’re hoping Clemens’ arm strength can stretch field and help running game that has been held under 70 yards in five of eight games. Skins lost 52-7 in Foxboro last week; interesting to see how they bounce back- they lost CB Rogers (knee) for year last week. AFC teams hold 18-14 lead over NFC entering this week. Skins are 1-3 if they score 17 or less points, 3-0 when they score more. Jets’ only win was 31-28 at home, vs 0-8 Dolphins.

Cardinals (3-4) @ Buccaneers (4-4)—Garcia hadn’t thrown pick all year, until tossing three in loss to Jags last week, their first loss in four home games (wins by 17-21-3); Bucs allowed 14-3-7-10 points in their wins, 20-33-23-24 in losses. Arizona averaging 23.3 pg in four road games- they’re coming off bye, with Warner playing QB despite torn ligament in left elbow; they’re 1-3 on road, with all four games decided by three or less points. Dog is 6-0-1 vs spread in Arizona games this season; Redbirds are 4-0-1 as dog, 2-0-1 on road. Bucs have no takeaways in last two games both teams are -7 in turnovers in last two outings. Only one of four Arizona losses (25-10 vs Panthers) is by more than a FG.

Panthers (4-3) @ Titans (5-2)— Visiting team is 7-0 in Carolina games this season; Panthers are 4-0 on road, allowing just 14 pg away from home. Tennessee won four of last five games, winning last two by combined total of six pts; they’re 2-1 at home, losing 22-20 to Colts, then beating Falcons (20-13), Raiders (13-9)- they beat Oakland last week, despite just 26 net passing yards (they outrushed Raiders 192-92). Carolina likely to have Carr at QB, with Delhomme/Testaverde now both hurt- they’re 3-0 if they win turnover battle (+2-1-5), 1-0 if it is even, 0-3 if they lose it (-2,1,2). Under is 4-0 in last four Carolina games, 5-1-1 in Titan games this season.

49ers (2-5) @ Falcons (1-6)—Tough times for both these squads; 49ers lost last five games, with four of losses by 18+ points- they’re 1-2 on road, losing at Pittsburgh (37-16), Giants (33-15). Even in their two wins, Niners were outgained by 67,206 yards. Not much home field edge for 1-6 teams; Falcons are off bye, have had dissension after they cut vet defensive lineman Grady Jackson; they’re 1-2 at home, and are back to Harrington at QB, with Leftwich out (ankle). Atlanta does have +8 turnover ratio in last four games, still lost last three- they have six INTs in last three games. Under is 5-2 in Falcon games this season. Not much to choose from in this game.

Jaguars (5-2) @ Saints (3-4)— NFC teams are 0-5-2 vs spread this season, when home favorite vs AFC foe, but New Orleans is on roll, winning last three games after 0-4 start; they scored 28-22-31 points in their wins (10 TDs on 31 drives) after scoring 12.8 pg in 0-4 start (four TDs on 40 drives). Jags won at Tampa last week, despite being outgained 385-219. First time starting QB Gray was 7-16/86 passing, but didn’t screw anything up—Jags’ had 50,53-yard TD drives last week, as well as a defensive TD. This is first game on artificial turf for Jags, who scored 10,7 points in only ’07 losses. Interesting to see if Jags can run against Saint defense that allowed last six opponents to run for just 87.2 ypg.

Broncos (3-4) @ Lions (5-2)— Denver traveling on a short work week after OT loss to Favre and Packers late Monday; Broncos’ run defense is awful (allowing 105+ rushing yards in every game). Against explosive Lion offense (234-244 passing yards in two games since bye, with Calvin Johnson back in lineup), Denver CBs could get exposed again, like they did Monday, giving up 79,82-yard TD passes. This is the first Bronco road game in five weeks; they ran ball for 394 yards in their first two road games (average just 95.6 rushing yards at home). As we said up above, NFC teams are 0-5-2 vs spread this season, when home favorite vs AFC opponent. Five of last six Denver games went over total.

Bengals (2-5) @ Bills (3-4)—Teams are combined 5-9, but 3-0 vs Jets, 2-9 vs everyone else; Cincinnati is 0-3 on road, losing 51-45 at Cleveland, 24-21 at Seattle, 27-20 at Arrowhead. Buffalo covered its last four games, winning three; they’re 2-2 at home, with both losses by single point. Bengals scored 27-38 points in their two wins; they’re 0-4 scoring less than 27. Bills are giving up 19.3 pg, but they gave up 26-38-25 vs Pats-Pitt-Dallas, three of NFL’s elite teams (allowed 11.5 pg in other four games). Cincy averaged 55.7 yds/drive vs Steelers last week, but only scored one TD in four trips to Pitt red zone. Five of seven Buffalo games stayed under total (three of four at home).

Chargers (4-3) @ Vikings (2-5)—Red-hot San Diego scored 41-28-35 points (11 TD’s on last 28 drives) in winning last three games, after 1-3 start. Vikings lost five of last six games, have Jackson back from injury, with Bollinger #2 QB (they have 16 3/outs on last 35 drives, only two TD’s on last 20). Minnesota is 0-5 when it scores less than 24 points; Chargers held all four of their victims to 14 or less points. Doubt Minnesota is lighting up scoreboard here, so unless Vikes get takeaways or Peterson runs wild, hard to see them staying close here. This is only artificial turf game all season for Bolts. All three San Diego road games went over the total, as did three of last four Minnesota games.

Seahawks (4-3) @ Browns (4-3)—Cleveland prospering with QB Anderson (scored 24+ points in five of last six games, winning three of last four), but they fired previous starter Frye after one game, the same Frye who is now Seattle’s #3 QB, so wondering if his knowledge of Browns helps Seattle here. Seahawks are 1-2 on road, losing in Arizona (23-20), Pittsburgh (21-0), winning at Candlestick (23-3). Browns won last three home games by 6-14-10 points, scoring 39.7 pg (15 TDs on last 32 drives). Take away loss at 8-0 Patriots (5.1 ypa), and Anderson averaged 11.3/9.3/8.7 pg in last three games- they converted 14 of last 23 third down plays. Six of seven Cleveland games went over total.

Patriots (8-0) @ Colts (7-0)—Indy is 5.5-point home dog, despite being unbeaten defending NFL champs, testament to unreal first half of season by Patriots (scored 34+ points in every game, no wins by less than 17 points). Colts beat Patriots in playoffs last winter; they’ve only allowed two TD’s on 18 drives in two games since their bye. Patriots’ average halftime score has been 22-6; they haven’t had to go full-tilt for full game, but have done it anyway, running up big scores. Both sides are +11 in turnovers. Popular wisdom is wild shootout, but often in game with this much hoopla, teams feel each other out early, get off to cautious start. Seven of eight Patriot games went over total. Winner here is odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl.

Texans (3-5) @ Raiders (2-5)—Only other 4:00 game has pair of fading teams; Texans trailed 37-10/32-7/ 35-3 at one point in each of last three games; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 10-20-25 points. Raiders are 0-3 since bye, scoring only 11 pg (with only two offensive TD’s on 34 drives)- four of last six games were decided by four or less points. Houston is limping towards its bye, with Schaub hurt; they’re -9 in turnovers in last two games,
-14 in last six- in last two games, they lost field position battle by 21,24 yards, making it very tough to win. Houston has started 10 drives in enemy territory this season, but hasn’t scored TD on any of them, kicking four FG’s- they trailed last six games at half .

Cowboys (6-1) @ Eagles (3-4)— Philly has yet to win back/back games, hosts hated rival Dallas with Pokes coming in off bye; Cowboys are 3-0 on road, winning at Miami (37-20), Chicago (34-10), Buffalo (25-24). Last year, Eagles swept Dallas, winning 38-24 here in Week 5 (-1.5), then 23-7 in Dallas in Week 16 (+7), thanks to 9.2/8.9 ypa and +5 turnover ratio in those games. Philly is just 1-2 at home; they scored 16 or less points in five of seven games; there hasn’t been turnover (either way) in their last two games. McNabb making more plays since Eagle bye, converting 22 of last 43 third down plays (51.2%) in last three games (they were 24 of 55 (43.6%) in first four games). Under is 5-2 in Eagle games, 2-5 in Dallas games.

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Monday, November 5
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Ravens (4-3) @ Steelers (5-2)— First place in AFC North at stake here; Ravens are off bye, just 1-3 on road, losing by 7-14-5 pts, winning only at Candlestick (9-7). This is first home game in four weeks for Steelers, who are 3-0 at home, winning 26-3 vs Buffalo (-9.5), 37-16 vs Niners (-9), 21-0 over Seattle (-5), not exactly like Murderers’ Row. Big Ben moving chains well for Steelers (they converted 24 of last 38 on 3rd down) part of why they’ve scored 21+ points in every game but one (21-14 loss at Arizona). Ravens faced Dilfer, Frerotte and rookie Edwards in last three games; they finally face their first real QB since Anderson averaged 11.3 ypa against them in Cleveland in Week 5. Last four Baltimore games stayed under total.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Sunday, November 4

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Tips and Trends
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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The 49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a losing team.
The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC.
The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games
Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.


Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
The Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.


Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against a winning team.
The Lions are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.
The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against a losing team.
The OVER is 10-2 in Denver's last 12 games overall.


Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.
The Chiefs are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite.
The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
The UNDER is 12-4 in Kansas City's last 16 games overall.


San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a losing team.
The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on tuf.
The Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
The OVER is 8-1 in San Diego's last 9 road games.


Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS against a losing team.
The Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 home games for New Orleans.


Washington Redskins at New York Jets (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Redskins are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a losing team.
The Redskins are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Washington's last 7 games overall.


Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss.
The Cardinals are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a losing team.
The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss.
The OVER is 10-3 in Arizona's last 13 games overall.


Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss.
The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a winning home team.
The Titans are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
The OVER is 8-3 in Tennessee's last 11 games as a favorite.


Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
The Seahawks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games
The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Browns are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win.
The OVER is 15-7 in Seattle's last 22 road games.


New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

The Patriots are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a small favorite.
The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog.
Underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.


Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (CBS | 4:15 ET)

The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a small favorite.
The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a losing team.
The OVER is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 games overall.


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (NBC | 8:15 ET)

The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC.
The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a winning team.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Sunday, November 4

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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts will both put their unbeaten records on the line on Sunday when they meet at the RCA Dome. Here's your NFL Gameday . . .

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-4) (Total 35.5)
LP Field, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

The Panthers looked to knock off the Colts last week, but Indy proved to be too strong in a 31-7 victory. David Carr and Vinny Testaverde split time in that game, with Carr going 16-of-25 for 103 yards and Testaverde going 12-of-20 for 82 yards and an interception. Testaverde, though, suffered an achilles injury, so Carr should be back as the starter this week. DeShaun Foster ran for 62 yards and a touchdown against Indy.

The Titans improved to an impressive 5-2 with a victory over the unimpressive Raiders last week. Vince Young didn't have to do much for Tennessee in that outing - he went 6-of-14 for 42 yards passing, and rushed for 11 yards on seven attempts. LenDale White provided the bulk of the Titans' offense, rushing for 133 yards on his 25 carries, while Chris Henry scored the team's lone TD while running for 48 yards on four carries.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-1) (Total 46.5)
Cleveland Browns Stadium, 4:05pm ET (FOX)

Seattle had a bye in Week 8, so they haven't played since pounding the Rams 33-6 at home back in Week 7. Matt Hasselbeck, though, didn't have a great day against St. Louis, going just 18-of-35 for 195 yards, but he did toss two TD strikes to Will Heller (and he was picked off once). Shaun Alexander ran for just 47 yards on 19 carries against the Rams. Seattle is one game up on the Cards for first place in the NFC West.

The Browns are just one game back of the Steelers for top spot in the AFC North, thanks to their 27-20 win over the Rams in Week 8. Derek Anderson continued to have the hot hand for Cleveland, completing 18-of-25 pass attempts for 248 yards, and throwing three TD strikes. Braylon Edwards had two TDs and 117 yards in the win. Jamal Lewis played through his foot injury for the Browns, and picked up 61 rush yards.

New England Patriots (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts (Total 56.5)
RCA Dome, 4:15pm ET (CBS)

The Patriots ran their record to 8-0 by destroying the Redskins 52-7 last weekend. New England was up 24-0 at halftime in that game, and they went on to score four more TDs after the break. Tom Brady went 29-of-38 for 306 yards passing in that contest, with three touchdown strikes and no interceptions. Wes Welker, Randy Moss, and Mike Vrabel each had TD catches on the day, while Brady ran in for two touchdowns himself.

The Colts were down 7-3 after one quarter versus the Panthers last week, but they outscored the opposition 28-0 from that point through to the end of the game. Peyton Manning went 14-of-30 for 255 yards versus the Panthers, with two TD passes and no interceptions. Joseph Addai ran for 100 yards on 23 carries and found the end zone twice, while Reggie Wayne exploded for 168 yards. Marvin Harrison sat out last week.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (Total 46.5)
Lincoln Financial Field, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

The Cowboys had a bye last week, and they'll put their 6-1 mark on the line against a division opponent on Sunday night. Back in Week 7 Dallas had to come back in the second half in order to knock off the Vikings 24-14; they were down 14-7 at the break. Tony Romo went 31-of-39 for 277 yards passing in that contest, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Terrell Owens and Marion Barber found the end zone in that win.

Philadelphia is currently sitting in last place in the NFC East, but they beat the Vikings last time out as well. Donovan McNabb went 23-of-36 for 333 yards passing in the Eagles' 23-16 road win over Minnesota last week, and he hooked up with Brian Westbrook for a touchdown. Westbrook ran for just 46 yards on 21 carries in that game, but he did pick up a rushing touchdown as well to go along with his 46 receiving yards.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Underdogs

NFL
Underdogs


Sunday, November 4

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NFL underdogs: picks
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NFL underdogs: Week 9 picks

So, plans for Sunday?

Since you’re reading this column, I bet you are already scheming about how to get out of yard work, dinner at the in-laws, or Jackie’s ballet class. If you’re smart, you’re probably running extra errands and putting in special lady friend time as I type. You’re planning ahead.

When the unbeaten New England Patriots have a date in Indy against the also unbeaten, and Super Bowl champion Colts, you dig the day planner out. When oddsmakers make the Pats nearly a 6-point favorites on the road, you rip Sunday out of that day planner and fire it out the window just in case anybody gets any big ideas about you doing anything outside of anchoring yourself to the couch with remote in hand.

That’s what I did anyway. Just a suggestion.

This regular season game is big enough that some sportsbooks posted early odds for it weeks ago and shifted the line as the action poured in. The number moved from around +3 ½ to close to a pair of field goals.

Rightfully or wrongfully, a ton of that action is coming in New England. The general betting public is absolutely in love with the Patriots and it makes sense when they’ve covered eight straight pointspreads while playing over the total in each.

Average Joe bettor loves superstars and touchdowns and New England has plenty of both to go around.

The funny thing is that Average Joe bettor just came out of a steamy romance with the fling-it-around Colts not so long ago – you know, when they won the Super Bowl. Well, consider the Patriots Average Joe’s saucy rebound chick after the Colts affair ran cold.

It’s not that the Pats don’t deserve the attention. With some sexy offseason moves leading the way, New England’s pounding everybody by 35 points and looks almost unbeatable at this point.

Meanwhile, the Colts have held up their end of the bargain by going on the road to beat tough teams like Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Carolina so far while improving their defense (bless you, Bob Sanders) from last year’s Super Bowl team.

You’ve got two unbeaten teams squaring off with a 5 ½-pointspread separating the pair. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick up against Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy. The former champs against the current champs.

So what do you do?

New England at Indianapolis: Colts +5 ½

I’m not going to get into breaking down the strengths and weaknesses of the teams or any of that stuff. You’ll be completely sick of that kind of thing by game time and we all know what these clubs are about, anyway.

What I will say is this line is just much too weighted by public opinion for my liking. Everybody likes the Pats – your mechanic, your buddy at the track, your grandmother. Everybody.

For the sake of this column’s deadline I’ll list +5 ½ as the number, but I’m not laying any cash down until game day because this line will probably finish around +6, +6 ½, or even +7. Right now one of the more public sportsbooks in the market already has Indy at +6 ½, so be patient if you’re playing the Colts.

Maybe New England keeps rolling, but you’re not going to get better value on Indianapolis Colts on their home turf and this line is higher than the books want it to be.

That’s enough for me.

Arizona at Tampa Bay: Cardinals +3 ½

These teams are a lot alike in some ways. Arizona covered the number in its first four games of the year, while Tampa was 4-2 against the pointspread before running into some problems two weeks ago.

Now both teams are trying to get back on the right track before it’s too late. Arizona should be ready to go coming off its bye week. Plus, I think the Bucs were playing a bit over their heads to start off this year. I mean, we all knew Jeff Garcia wasn’t going to finish the year with the fewest interceptions in the league. That just didn’t make sense.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Ravens +9

If there’s one thing the Ravens like, it’s playing prime time games. If there’s one thing the Ravens love, it’s playing blood-in-your-mouth football.

I think they’re in for both Monday night against Pittsburgh. They should keep it close.

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 13-10-1

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[pm530]

National Football League – over / unders

NFL
over / unders


Sunday, November 4

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NFL over/under picks
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Total bias: Week 9 over/under picks

Observations from Week 8:

The Cleveland Browns’ offense looks unstoppable. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow give the Browns two consistent downfield options. I can’t say enough about quarterback Derek Anderson. Earlier this season the question was when, not if, rookie Brady Quinn would take over. That talk died down because, oh, by the way, only Tom Brady has thrown more touchdown passes than Anderson’s 17.
I guess Brian Griese isn’t the savior of the Chicago Bears. Griese killed three different offensive drives with interceptions in the red zone against the Detroit Lions last weekend. The bottom line is the Bears won’t win games turning the ball over multiple times. I honestly can say they might be better off getting Brian’s dad Bob out of the booth to manage the offense.
The New England Patriots take what the defense gives them. Brady dumped off to his running backs, tight ends and slot receivers underneath, while the Washington Redskins sat back in a two-deep zone. The Pats picked and chewed up yards rather than striking with long bombs. That’s just smart football and one of the reasons the Patriots are so good. At the end of the day, they’re going to use whatever method necessary to beat you.
I don’t mean to throw Champ Bailey and Dre Bly under the bus, but how do these Pro-Bowl corners get burned so badly on go routes? The Green Bay Packers won at Mile High over the Denver Broncos thanks to two big plays. Make no mistake about it, at the end of the day, Denver should have won that game.
Enough – I think I’ve made my point.

Let’s move on to this week’s over/under plays.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons – under 37

It’s a tough time being a Niners fan. Not only have they lost five straight but they’re just an ugly team to watch. The offense is without direction or hope. The team averages a pathetic 13 first downs and 12.4 points per game.

The Falcons aren’t in any better shape with Joey Harrington taking the snaps. Take the under and don’t bother watching this snoozefest.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs – under 37 ½

The Packers face their second-straight hostile field after stealing a win and a cover in Denver. I give the edge to Green Bay’s linebacker trio of A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett and Brady Poppinga against Chiefs running back Larry Johnson.

I don’t trust Kansas City’s passing game nor should you. Expect the punters to get a full day’s work and for the final score to end up in the low 30s.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – under 46 ½

The Eagles are slowly creeping back into the NFC East picture and their defense is the driving force. The unit has yielded just two offensive touchdowns in the last three contests. The Eagles ‘D’ still looks forward to hitting Terrell Owens as often as possible even if it’s been two years since the messy divorce.

The Cowboys haven’t been scoring points with the same ease they did in the first four weeks of the season. Tony Romo continues to be a streaky quarterback with eight turnovers in his last three outings. The offense would gain some stability if the coaching staff would just go ahead and appoint Marion Barber III as the club’s starting running back.

Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record: 14-10

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL


Sunday, November 4

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 9

Carolina at Tennessee (-4)

Why Panthers Cover: Titans have second-worst pass offense in the AFC. Vince Young threw for only 42 yards last week versus Oakland and has twice as many interceptions (6) as touchdowns (3). Road team has won both previous meetings.

Why Titans cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Only allowing 63.9 yards on the ground, tops in the league. Both Carolina QBs are banged up. David Carr (back) looks to get the start over Vinny Testaverde (ankle), but neither figures to be 100 percent. Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on grass.

Total (35 ½): Under is 4-0 in Panthers' last four games. Under is 6-1 in Titans' last seven games.


Cincinnati at Buffalo (+1)

Why Bengals cover: Expected to have running back Rudi Johnson back. Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh face a Bills defense allowing 253.3 passing yards per game. Bills are 0-3 this season with J.P. Losman as the starting quarterback.

Why Bills cover: Have won eight of last 10 meetings with Cincy. Big-play threat Lee Evans is heating up. Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with Buffalo. Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Total (43 ½): Over is 4-0 in Bengals' last four games as a favorite. Teams combined are allowing almost 500 yards per game through the air.


Denver at Detroit (-3)

Why Broncos cover: Have won five straight meetings with Detroit. Expected to have Travis Henry back from a rib injury. Lions have the worst defense in the NFC and have allowed 35 sacks, most in the NFL.

Why Lions cover: Are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games on field turf. Lead NFL in takeaways with 20. Stellar passing attack facing a Denver secondary torched for 325 yards by the Packers on Monday night, including two touchdown passes over 79-yards. Averaging 133 rushing yards per game since Kevin Jones replaced Tatum Bell as the starting running back. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Total (45 ½): Over is 4-0 in Broncos' last four games as an underdog and 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.


Green Bay at Kansas City (-2)

Why Packers cover: Are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Rank second behind only New England for most passing yards per game. Finally got ground game going (105 yards) last week against Denver. Chiefs scoring second-fewest points per game in the AFC at 14.6.

Why Chiefs cover: Are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. Have won five of last seven meetings with Green Bay. Brett Favre has never beaten the Chiefs (0-3). Packers are 1-6-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Total (37 ½): Over is 4-1 in Chiefs' last five games following a bye week.


Jacksonville at New Orleans (-3 ½)

Why Jaguars cover: Have won last two games versus New Orleans. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Are averaging over 145 yards rushing per game. Reggie Bush dealing with rib injury and could be limited. Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees has thrown eight touchdowns and only one interception in his last three contests after tossing only one TD against nine picks in his first four games. He is also completing 72 percent of his passes in that recent three-game stretch. Jacksonville defensive tackle Marcus Stroud could start serving substance abuse suspension. Jags are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Total (40): Over is 4-1 in Jaguars' last five road games.


San Diego at Minnesota (+7)

Why Chargers cover: Have won three straight, covering each time. Minnesota’s Tarvaris Jackson is the NFL’s lowest-rated QB at 48.7 percent. Vikings are dead last in the league in pass defense, allowing almost 20 yards more per game than the next worst, Cleveland. Minnesota has only covered once in its last eight home games.

Why Vikings cover: Have won six of their last 10 against San Diego including five straight at home. NFC’s top-ranked rush defense will make things difficult for LaDainian Tomlinson. Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

Total: (41): Over is 8-1 in Chargers' last nine road games.


San Francisco at Atlanta (-3)

Why 49ers cover: Are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with Atlanta. Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. An injury to Byron Leftwich means former starter Joey Harrington will quarterback Atlanta.

Why Falcons cover: Have won four of their last five at home against San Francisco. Are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. Niners QB Alex Smith is dealing with a sore shoulder while running back Frank Gore is suffering from an ankle injury.

Total (37): Under is 5-0 in Falcons' last five games as a favorite, 5-1 in their last six vs. NFC and 13-3 in their last 16 games overall.


Washington at N.Y. Jets (+3 ½)

Why Redskins cover: Need to bounce back from 52-7 shellacking at the hands of New England last week. Jets are reeling from losing five straight. New York’s Kellen Clemens will be making only second professional start and has completed only 49 percent of his passes. Clemens has one TD and four interceptions this season. Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games and 0-5 ATS in their last five overall.

Why Jets cover: QB change could spark offense. Redskins are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and 1-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Total (35 ½): Under is 4-1-1 in Redskins' last six games on grass and 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.


Arizona at Tampa Bay (-3 ½)

Why Cardinals cover: Are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog, 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC. Bye week allowed Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin to rest nagging injuries. Buccaneers have lost two in a row after winning four of their previous five games.

Why Buccaneers cover: Are 3-1 at home this season and have won last two meetings with Arizona at home. Are 6-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass. Have NFC’s third-ranked defense.

Total (37 ½): Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers' last six vs. NFC.


Seattle at Cleveland (-1 ½)

Why Seahawks cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Have won last two meetings. Cleveland’s defense is worst in the NFL.

Why Browns cover: Are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Surprising QB Derek Anderson has thrown six touchdowns in his last two games and 17 overall. Seahawks’ Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander and Deion Branch all dealing with injuries. Alexander hasn’t rushed for more than 47 yards in his last three games and is averaging 2.4 yards per carry during that span.

Total (47): Under is 7-1 in Browns' last eight games as a home favorite and 4-1 in Seahawks' last five games overall.


Houston at Oakland (-3)

Why Texans cover: Have won previous three meetings. Oakland has lost three straight, averaging only 11-points in those contests. Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Why Raiders cover: Texans will start backup QB Sage Rosenfels. Houston is second in the NFL with 23 turnovers and have worst takeaway/giveaway differential at -10. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and 0-5 ATS in its last five overall.

Total (41 ½): Over is 5-1 in Texans' last six road games.


New England at Indianapolis (+6)

Why Patriots cover: Have covered in 13 of their last 15 regular season games. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Indianapolis and averaging almost 10 points more per game than the Colts. Tom Brady is leading the NFL in passer rating at an unheard-of 132.5 percent.

Why Colts cover: Own the best pass defense in the league. Have won three straight against New England with Peyton Manning throwing for over 300 yards each time. Are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four overall.

Total (56 ½): Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.


Dallas at Philadelphia (+3)

Why Cowboys cover: Scoring 32.4 points per game, second only to the Patriots. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games on grass. NFC’s top-ranked defense often overshadowed by headline-grabbing offense.

Why Eagles cover: Won both meetings last year and seven of last 10. Second in the NFC with 24 sacks. Are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Donovan McNabb getting stronger as season progresses. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Cowboys are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Philadelphia.

Total (46 ½): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia.


Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-9 ½)

Why Ravens cover: Have won last three meetings. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and can tie Pittsburgh atop the AFC North with a victory. Bye week allows Ravens to get starters Steve McNair, Chris McAlister and Trevor Pryce back in the lineup.

Why Steelers cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Haven’t lost a Monday Night Football game at home since 1991, a span of 11 contests. Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Baltimore is the AFC’s most penalized team, giving up 438 yards to penalties.

Total (36 ½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Pittsburgh.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Injuries

NFL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Injury Report
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NFL injury report: Week 9

QB Vinny Testaverde, Carolina Panthers
Status: Questionable

Testaverde missed a third straight practice Friday with a right Achilles' tendon injury. David Carr is likely to start at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers at Tennessee on Sunday. The Panthers are 4-point underdogs.

QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills
Status: Doubtful

Edwards is doubtful for Buffalo's game Sunday against Cincinnati after missing his third straight practice Friday because of a swollen right hand. Edwards would only be used as a backup with J.P. Losman expected to start. The Bills are set as 1-point home underdogs.

QB Steve McNair, Baltimore Ravens
Status: Probable

Since missing two starts and recuperating from back and groin injuries during Baltimore's bye week, McNair is preparing to start Monday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers for his first action since Oct. 7. The Ravens are 9-point underdogs at Pittsburgh.

LB Karlos Dansby, Arizona Cardinals
Status: Questionable

Dansby, considered the Cardinals' big-play linebacker, took part in limited practice on Thursday and said he might be able to play in another week while recovering from a left knee sprain. The Cardinals are 3 ½-point underdogs Sunday at Tampa Bay.

RBs Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson, Cincinnati Bengals
Status: Questionable

Johnson missed most of the past four games with a pulled hamstring, but returned to practice this week and reported no problems. Watson returned to practice Thursday after recovering from a concussion. Coach Marvin Lewis won't say which one will start Sunday. The total is set at 43 ½.

DE Jarvis Moss, Denver Broncos
Status: Out

Moss, the 17th overall pick in the 2007 draft, broke his right shin in practice and will have surgery in the next few days. He will be out for three to four months. Denver is a 3-point underdog at Detroit.

WR Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts
Status: Questionable

Colts doctors have told Pro Bowl receiver Marvin Harrison he can play, but coach Tony Dungy said Harrison is expected to be a game-time decision. The Colts are 6-point home underdogs to the Patriots Sunday.

WR Laveranues Coles, New York Jets
Status: Doubtful

Coles was listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against Washington because of a concussion, jeopardizing a streak in which he has started every game since 2001. The Jets are 3 ½-point underdogs.

QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Status: Out

Schaub will not start Sunday's game after suffering a concussion from a helmet-to-helmet hit last week in San Diego. With Schaub out, the Texans will go with Sage Rosenfels against Oakland as 3-point road dogs.

RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints
Status: Probable

Bush returned to practice Wednesday after leaving last Sunday's win over San Francisco with bruised ribs. The Saints host the Jaguars as 3 ½-point favorites.

DE Charles Grant, New Orleans Saints
Status: Questionable

Grant sprained his right ankle Sunday. He returned to the game, but said his ankle swelled up during the flight home that night. Grant has never missed a game and said he expected that trend to continue.

QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
Status: Probable

Hasselbeck and the Seahawks said he'll be ready to start after straining his right oblique muscle in a win over St. Louis on Oct. 21. Seattle is listed at +1 ½ at Cleveland.

WR Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks
Status: Questionable

Branch was supposed to be back by now from a sprained right foot that has caused him to miss the past two games, but coach Mike Holmgren said Branch has a 50 percent chance of playing Sunday.

QB Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings
Status: Questionable

Jackson suffered a small break on the index finger of his throwing hand on Oct. 21 at Dallas and didn't play last Sunday. He is in line to return against San Diego after reporting no problems in Wednesday's practice. The Vikings are 7-point home underdogs.

CB Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings
Status: Questionable

Winfield was listed as questionable because of a hamstring injury that first flared up against Philadelphia last week and was tweaked during practice. He did not practice on Thursday or Friday, but coach Brad Childress was holding out hope that he will be in the lineup.

WRs Bobby Wade and Troy Williamson, Minnesota Vikings
Status: Questionable

Wade has a knee injury and Williamson has been out all week following the death of his grandmother.

LB Marcus Washington, Washington Redskins
Status: Questionable

Washington has been limited in practice with a hamstring injury. He missed two games with the injury before playing in last week's loss to New England. However, Washington felt sore following Thursday's practice. The Redskins are favored by 3 ½ points at the Jets.

RB LenDale White, Tennessee Titans
Status: Probable

White sat out practice Friday because of a toe problem, but coach Jeff Fisher said he should be available for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Game 429-430: SMU at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 67.035; Houston 91.571
Dunkel Line: Houston by 24 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Houston by 19; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-19); Under

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[pm530]

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet

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Sunday, November 4
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SMU (1 - 7) at HOUSTON (5 - 3) - 11/4/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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