Tweet
National Football League – Write up
NFL
Write-up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, November 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Packers (6-1) @ Chiefs (4-3)—Pack off dramatic OT win in Denver Monday, is back on the road, on short work week, vs solid Chief defense that is coming off bye. KC won four of last five games after 4-1 start; they scored 3-10-7 in their losses, 20.5 pg in wins. Pack is 3-0 on road, giving up 13-16-13 points. Green Bay has just two TD’s on last 12 visits to red zone, but they’ve only lost one game this year, and they led 17-7 at halftime of that one. Chiefs had 121-126 rushing yards in last two games, after averaging 64 ypg in first three weeks. KC defends run well, unlike Denver, so Favre is going to get less single coverage on his WRs, which is how he hit the two long passes Monday night. Under is 5-2 in Chief games this season.
Redskins (4-3) @ Jets (1-7)—Second-year QB Clemens gets first NFL start in week before bye for Jets, who lost last five games, failing to score TD in last two home games (20 drives); in their last eight trips to red zone, Jets have no TD’s, six FG’s- they’re hoping Clemens’ arm strength can stretch field and help running game that has been held under 70 yards in five of eight games. Skins lost 52-7 in Foxboro last week; interesting to see how they bounce back- they lost CB Rogers (knee) for year last week. AFC teams hold 18-14 lead over NFC entering this week. Skins are 1-3 if they score 17 or less points, 3-0 when they score more. Jets’ only win was 31-28 at home, vs 0-8 Dolphins.
Cardinals (3-4) @ Buccaneers (4-4)—Garcia hadn’t thrown pick all year, until tossing three in loss to Jags last week, their first loss in four home games (wins by 17-21-3); Bucs allowed 14-3-7-10 points in their wins, 20-33-23-24 in losses. Arizona averaging 23.3 pg in four road games- they’re coming off bye, with Warner playing QB despite torn ligament in left elbow; they’re 1-3 on road, with all four games decided by three or less points. Dog is 6-0-1 vs spread in Arizona games this season; Redbirds are 4-0-1 as dog, 2-0-1 on road. Bucs have no takeaways in last two games both teams are -7 in turnovers in last two outings. Only one of four Arizona losses (25-10 vs Panthers) is by more than a FG.
Panthers (4-3) @ Titans (5-2)— Visiting team is 7-0 in Carolina games this season; Panthers are 4-0 on road, allowing just 14 pg away from home. Tennessee won four of last five games, winning last two by combined total of six pts; they’re 2-1 at home, losing 22-20 to Colts, then beating Falcons (20-13), Raiders (13-9)- they beat Oakland last week, despite just 26 net passing yards (they outrushed Raiders 192-92). Carolina likely to have Carr at QB, with Delhomme/Testaverde now both hurt- they’re 3-0 if they win turnover battle (+2-1-5), 1-0 if it is even, 0-3 if they lose it (-2,1,2). Under is 4-0 in last four Carolina games, 5-1-1 in Titan games this season.
49ers (2-5) @ Falcons (1-6)—Tough times for both these squads; 49ers lost last five games, with four of losses by 18+ points- they’re 1-2 on road, losing at Pittsburgh (37-16), Giants (33-15). Even in their two wins, Niners were outgained by 67,206 yards. Not much home field edge for 1-6 teams; Falcons are off bye, have had dissension after they cut vet defensive lineman Grady Jackson; they’re 1-2 at home, and are back to Harrington at QB, with Leftwich out (ankle). Atlanta does have +8 turnover ratio in last four games, still lost last three- they have six INTs in last three games. Under is 5-2 in Falcon games this season. Not much to choose from in this game.
Jaguars (5-2) @ Saints (3-4)— NFC teams are 0-5-2 vs spread this season, when home favorite vs AFC foe, but New Orleans is on roll, winning last three games after 0-4 start; they scored 28-22-31 points in their wins (10 TDs on 31 drives) after scoring 12.8 pg in 0-4 start (four TDs on 40 drives). Jags won at Tampa last week, despite being outgained 385-219. First time starting QB Gray was 7-16/86 passing, but didn’t screw anything up—Jags’ had 50,53-yard TD drives last week, as well as a defensive TD. This is first game on artificial turf for Jags, who scored 10,7 points in only ’07 losses. Interesting to see if Jags can run against Saint defense that allowed last six opponents to run for just 87.2 ypg.
Broncos (3-4) @ Lions (5-2)— Denver traveling on a short work week after OT loss to Favre and Packers late Monday; Broncos’ run defense is awful (allowing 105+ rushing yards in every game). Against explosive Lion offense (234-244 passing yards in two games since bye, with Calvin Johnson back in lineup), Denver CBs could get exposed again, like they did Monday, giving up 79,82-yard TD passes. This is the first Bronco road game in five weeks; they ran ball for 394 yards in their first two road games (average just 95.6 rushing yards at home). As we said up above, NFC teams are 0-5-2 vs spread this season, when home favorite vs AFC opponent. Five of last six Denver games went over total.
Bengals (2-5) @ Bills (3-4)—Teams are combined 5-9, but 3-0 vs Jets, 2-9 vs everyone else; Cincinnati is 0-3 on road, losing 51-45 at Cleveland, 24-21 at Seattle, 27-20 at Arrowhead. Buffalo covered its last four games, winning three; they’re 2-2 at home, with both losses by single point. Bengals scored 27-38 points in their two wins; they’re 0-4 scoring less than 27. Bills are giving up 19.3 pg, but they gave up 26-38-25 vs Pats-Pitt-Dallas, three of NFL’s elite teams (allowed 11.5 pg in other four games). Cincy averaged 55.7 yds/drive vs Steelers last week, but only scored one TD in four trips to Pitt red zone. Five of seven Buffalo games stayed under total (three of four at home).
Chargers (4-3) @ Vikings (2-5)—Red-hot San Diego scored 41-28-35 points (11 TD’s on last 28 drives) in winning last three games, after 1-3 start. Vikings lost five of last six games, have Jackson back from injury, with Bollinger #2 QB (they have 16 3/outs on last 35 drives, only two TD’s on last 20). Minnesota is 0-5 when it scores less than 24 points; Chargers held all four of their victims to 14 or less points. Doubt Minnesota is lighting up scoreboard here, so unless Vikes get takeaways or Peterson runs wild, hard to see them staying close here. This is only artificial turf game all season for Bolts. All three San Diego road games went over the total, as did three of last four Minnesota games.
Seahawks (4-3) @ Browns (4-3)—Cleveland prospering with QB Anderson (scored 24+ points in five of last six games, winning three of last four), but they fired previous starter Frye after one game, the same Frye who is now Seattle’s #3 QB, so wondering if his knowledge of Browns helps Seattle here. Seahawks are 1-2 on road, losing in Arizona (23-20), Pittsburgh (21-0), winning at Candlestick (23-3). Browns won last three home games by 6-14-10 points, scoring 39.7 pg (15 TDs on last 32 drives). Take away loss at 8-0 Patriots (5.1 ypa), and Anderson averaged 11.3/9.3/8.7 pg in last three games- they converted 14 of last 23 third down plays. Six of seven Cleveland games went over total.
Patriots (8-0) @ Colts (7-0)—Indy is 5.5-point home dog, despite being unbeaten defending NFL champs, testament to unreal first half of season by Patriots (scored 34+ points in every game, no wins by less than 17 points). Colts beat Patriots in playoffs last winter; they’ve only allowed two TD’s on 18 drives in two games since their bye. Patriots’ average halftime score has been 22-6; they haven’t had to go full-tilt for full game, but have done it anyway, running up big scores. Both sides are +11 in turnovers. Popular wisdom is wild shootout, but often in game with this much hoopla, teams feel each other out early, get off to cautious start. Seven of eight Patriot games went over total. Winner here is odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl.
Texans (3-5) @ Raiders (2-5)—Only other 4:00 game has pair of fading teams; Texans trailed 37-10/32-7/ 35-3 at one point in each of last three games; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 10-20-25 points. Raiders are 0-3 since bye, scoring only 11 pg (with only two offensive TD’s on 34 drives)- four of last six games were decided by four or less points. Houston is limping towards its bye, with Schaub hurt; they’re -9 in turnovers in last two games,
-14 in last six- in last two games, they lost field position battle by 21,24 yards, making it very tough to win. Houston has started 10 drives in enemy territory this season, but hasn’t scored TD on any of them, kicking four FG’s- they trailed last six games at half .
Cowboys (6-1) @ Eagles (3-4)— Philly has yet to win back/back games, hosts hated rival Dallas with Pokes coming in off bye; Cowboys are 3-0 on road, winning at Miami (37-20), Chicago (34-10), Buffalo (25-24). Last year, Eagles swept Dallas, winning 38-24 here in Week 5 (-1.5), then 23-7 in Dallas in Week 16 (+7), thanks to 9.2/8.9 ypa and +5 turnover ratio in those games. Philly is just 1-2 at home; they scored 16 or less points in five of seven games; there hasn’t been turnover (either way) in their last two games. McNabb making more plays since Eagle bye, converting 22 of last 43 third down plays (51.2%) in last three games (they were 24 of 55 (43.6%) in first four games). Under is 5-2 in Eagle games, 2-5 in Dallas games.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, November 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ravens (4-3) @ Steelers (5-2)— First place in AFC North at stake here; Ravens are off bye, just 1-3 on road, losing by 7-14-5 pts, winning only at Candlestick (9-7). This is first home game in four weeks for Steelers, who are 3-0 at home, winning 26-3 vs Buffalo (-9.5), 37-16 vs Niners (-9), 21-0 over Seattle (-5), not exactly like Murderers’ Row. Big Ben moving chains well for Steelers (they converted 24 of last 38 on 3rd down) part of why they’ve scored 21+ points in every game but one (21-14 loss at Arizona). Ravens faced Dilfer, Frerotte and rookie Edwards in last three games; they finally face their first real QB since Anderson averaged 11.3 ypa against them in Cleveland in Week 5. Last four Baltimore games stayed under total.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
Write-up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, November 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Packers (6-1) @ Chiefs (4-3)—Pack off dramatic OT win in Denver Monday, is back on the road, on short work week, vs solid Chief defense that is coming off bye. KC won four of last five games after 4-1 start; they scored 3-10-7 in their losses, 20.5 pg in wins. Pack is 3-0 on road, giving up 13-16-13 points. Green Bay has just two TD’s on last 12 visits to red zone, but they’ve only lost one game this year, and they led 17-7 at halftime of that one. Chiefs had 121-126 rushing yards in last two games, after averaging 64 ypg in first three weeks. KC defends run well, unlike Denver, so Favre is going to get less single coverage on his WRs, which is how he hit the two long passes Monday night. Under is 5-2 in Chief games this season.
Redskins (4-3) @ Jets (1-7)—Second-year QB Clemens gets first NFL start in week before bye for Jets, who lost last five games, failing to score TD in last two home games (20 drives); in their last eight trips to red zone, Jets have no TD’s, six FG’s- they’re hoping Clemens’ arm strength can stretch field and help running game that has been held under 70 yards in five of eight games. Skins lost 52-7 in Foxboro last week; interesting to see how they bounce back- they lost CB Rogers (knee) for year last week. AFC teams hold 18-14 lead over NFC entering this week. Skins are 1-3 if they score 17 or less points, 3-0 when they score more. Jets’ only win was 31-28 at home, vs 0-8 Dolphins.
Cardinals (3-4) @ Buccaneers (4-4)—Garcia hadn’t thrown pick all year, until tossing three in loss to Jags last week, their first loss in four home games (wins by 17-21-3); Bucs allowed 14-3-7-10 points in their wins, 20-33-23-24 in losses. Arizona averaging 23.3 pg in four road games- they’re coming off bye, with Warner playing QB despite torn ligament in left elbow; they’re 1-3 on road, with all four games decided by three or less points. Dog is 6-0-1 vs spread in Arizona games this season; Redbirds are 4-0-1 as dog, 2-0-1 on road. Bucs have no takeaways in last two games both teams are -7 in turnovers in last two outings. Only one of four Arizona losses (25-10 vs Panthers) is by more than a FG.
Panthers (4-3) @ Titans (5-2)— Visiting team is 7-0 in Carolina games this season; Panthers are 4-0 on road, allowing just 14 pg away from home. Tennessee won four of last five games, winning last two by combined total of six pts; they’re 2-1 at home, losing 22-20 to Colts, then beating Falcons (20-13), Raiders (13-9)- they beat Oakland last week, despite just 26 net passing yards (they outrushed Raiders 192-92). Carolina likely to have Carr at QB, with Delhomme/Testaverde now both hurt- they’re 3-0 if they win turnover battle (+2-1-5), 1-0 if it is even, 0-3 if they lose it (-2,1,2). Under is 4-0 in last four Carolina games, 5-1-1 in Titan games this season.
49ers (2-5) @ Falcons (1-6)—Tough times for both these squads; 49ers lost last five games, with four of losses by 18+ points- they’re 1-2 on road, losing at Pittsburgh (37-16), Giants (33-15). Even in their two wins, Niners were outgained by 67,206 yards. Not much home field edge for 1-6 teams; Falcons are off bye, have had dissension after they cut vet defensive lineman Grady Jackson; they’re 1-2 at home, and are back to Harrington at QB, with Leftwich out (ankle). Atlanta does have +8 turnover ratio in last four games, still lost last three- they have six INTs in last three games. Under is 5-2 in Falcon games this season. Not much to choose from in this game.
Jaguars (5-2) @ Saints (3-4)— NFC teams are 0-5-2 vs spread this season, when home favorite vs AFC foe, but New Orleans is on roll, winning last three games after 0-4 start; they scored 28-22-31 points in their wins (10 TDs on 31 drives) after scoring 12.8 pg in 0-4 start (four TDs on 40 drives). Jags won at Tampa last week, despite being outgained 385-219. First time starting QB Gray was 7-16/86 passing, but didn’t screw anything up—Jags’ had 50,53-yard TD drives last week, as well as a defensive TD. This is first game on artificial turf for Jags, who scored 10,7 points in only ’07 losses. Interesting to see if Jags can run against Saint defense that allowed last six opponents to run for just 87.2 ypg.
Broncos (3-4) @ Lions (5-2)— Denver traveling on a short work week after OT loss to Favre and Packers late Monday; Broncos’ run defense is awful (allowing 105+ rushing yards in every game). Against explosive Lion offense (234-244 passing yards in two games since bye, with Calvin Johnson back in lineup), Denver CBs could get exposed again, like they did Monday, giving up 79,82-yard TD passes. This is the first Bronco road game in five weeks; they ran ball for 394 yards in their first two road games (average just 95.6 rushing yards at home). As we said up above, NFC teams are 0-5-2 vs spread this season, when home favorite vs AFC opponent. Five of last six Denver games went over total.
Bengals (2-5) @ Bills (3-4)—Teams are combined 5-9, but 3-0 vs Jets, 2-9 vs everyone else; Cincinnati is 0-3 on road, losing 51-45 at Cleveland, 24-21 at Seattle, 27-20 at Arrowhead. Buffalo covered its last four games, winning three; they’re 2-2 at home, with both losses by single point. Bengals scored 27-38 points in their two wins; they’re 0-4 scoring less than 27. Bills are giving up 19.3 pg, but they gave up 26-38-25 vs Pats-Pitt-Dallas, three of NFL’s elite teams (allowed 11.5 pg in other four games). Cincy averaged 55.7 yds/drive vs Steelers last week, but only scored one TD in four trips to Pitt red zone. Five of seven Buffalo games stayed under total (three of four at home).
Chargers (4-3) @ Vikings (2-5)—Red-hot San Diego scored 41-28-35 points (11 TD’s on last 28 drives) in winning last three games, after 1-3 start. Vikings lost five of last six games, have Jackson back from injury, with Bollinger #2 QB (they have 16 3/outs on last 35 drives, only two TD’s on last 20). Minnesota is 0-5 when it scores less than 24 points; Chargers held all four of their victims to 14 or less points. Doubt Minnesota is lighting up scoreboard here, so unless Vikes get takeaways or Peterson runs wild, hard to see them staying close here. This is only artificial turf game all season for Bolts. All three San Diego road games went over the total, as did three of last four Minnesota games.
Seahawks (4-3) @ Browns (4-3)—Cleveland prospering with QB Anderson (scored 24+ points in five of last six games, winning three of last four), but they fired previous starter Frye after one game, the same Frye who is now Seattle’s #3 QB, so wondering if his knowledge of Browns helps Seattle here. Seahawks are 1-2 on road, losing in Arizona (23-20), Pittsburgh (21-0), winning at Candlestick (23-3). Browns won last three home games by 6-14-10 points, scoring 39.7 pg (15 TDs on last 32 drives). Take away loss at 8-0 Patriots (5.1 ypa), and Anderson averaged 11.3/9.3/8.7 pg in last three games- they converted 14 of last 23 third down plays. Six of seven Cleveland games went over total.
Patriots (8-0) @ Colts (7-0)—Indy is 5.5-point home dog, despite being unbeaten defending NFL champs, testament to unreal first half of season by Patriots (scored 34+ points in every game, no wins by less than 17 points). Colts beat Patriots in playoffs last winter; they’ve only allowed two TD’s on 18 drives in two games since their bye. Patriots’ average halftime score has been 22-6; they haven’t had to go full-tilt for full game, but have done it anyway, running up big scores. Both sides are +11 in turnovers. Popular wisdom is wild shootout, but often in game with this much hoopla, teams feel each other out early, get off to cautious start. Seven of eight Patriot games went over total. Winner here is odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl.
Texans (3-5) @ Raiders (2-5)—Only other 4:00 game has pair of fading teams; Texans trailed 37-10/32-7/ 35-3 at one point in each of last three games; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 10-20-25 points. Raiders are 0-3 since bye, scoring only 11 pg (with only two offensive TD’s on 34 drives)- four of last six games were decided by four or less points. Houston is limping towards its bye, with Schaub hurt; they’re -9 in turnovers in last two games,
-14 in last six- in last two games, they lost field position battle by 21,24 yards, making it very tough to win. Houston has started 10 drives in enemy territory this season, but hasn’t scored TD on any of them, kicking four FG’s- they trailed last six games at half .
Cowboys (6-1) @ Eagles (3-4)— Philly has yet to win back/back games, hosts hated rival Dallas with Pokes coming in off bye; Cowboys are 3-0 on road, winning at Miami (37-20), Chicago (34-10), Buffalo (25-24). Last year, Eagles swept Dallas, winning 38-24 here in Week 5 (-1.5), then 23-7 in Dallas in Week 16 (+7), thanks to 9.2/8.9 ypa and +5 turnover ratio in those games. Philly is just 1-2 at home; they scored 16 or less points in five of seven games; there hasn’t been turnover (either way) in their last two games. McNabb making more plays since Eagle bye, converting 22 of last 43 third down plays (51.2%) in last three games (they were 24 of 55 (43.6%) in first four games). Under is 5-2 in Eagle games, 2-5 in Dallas games.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, November 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ravens (4-3) @ Steelers (5-2)— First place in AFC North at stake here; Ravens are off bye, just 1-3 on road, losing by 7-14-5 pts, winning only at Candlestick (9-7). This is first home game in four weeks for Steelers, who are 3-0 at home, winning 26-3 vs Buffalo (-9.5), 37-16 vs Niners (-9), 21-0 over Seattle (-5), not exactly like Murderers’ Row. Big Ben moving chains well for Steelers (they converted 24 of last 38 on 3rd down) part of why they’ve scored 21+ points in every game but one (21-14 loss at Arizona). Ravens faced Dilfer, Frerotte and rookie Edwards in last three games; they finally face their first real QB since Anderson averaged 11.3 ypa against them in Cleveland in Week 5. Last four Baltimore games stayed under total.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comment