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Wagering on College Football in November
The last month of the college football season has raced up upon us. The anticipation of waiting all summer has given way to one of the most exciting and unpredictable seasons in years. Yet as the final leaves come off the trees from the chilly November winds, the powerful step forward and the meek timidly return to where they belong. What this month of college football shows us is teams that are strong, have depth and can rise to the occasion to close out a season and will do so. While other collegiate squads that have been racked up injuries or being worn down, will fade this month facing mostly conference opponents.
What this information has been broken down into two segments, one part since 2002 and the other over the last decade. The more recent figures are designed to show where specific programs have been over the last five years, in all likelihood with the same or similar coaching regime. Going back to 1997 does much the same thing, yet with personnel changes sheds light on the mindset of particular programs. What this will show is how teams performed in win/loss situations and against the point spread.
Top Five November ATS teams from 2002.
USC 17-0 – 14-3 ATS
Purdue 14-3 -13-3 ATS
Navy 8-6 – 11-3 ATS
Toledo 13-4 – 12-4 ATS
New Mexico 10-5 – 11-4 ATS
The Trojans have been a juggernaut in the Pete Carroll era in the month of November, laying waste to all Pac-10 teams and winning conference titles. Granted this year’s team doesn’t look to have the same fire and talent as before, that does not mean the Men of Troy won’t turn it up a notch. Besides they are unlikely to be overpriced after suffering a couple of defeats. Year in year out Purdue always struggles in October, typically starting the Big 10 season with the powerhouses of the league and failing. When the schedule lightens up, the Boilersmakers have closed with a vengeance. This is not the same Navy team we have grown accustomed to seeing, going to four straight bowl games under coach Paul Johnson. The dynamic that is different is the defense which is allowing 38.1 points a game. This does not mean the Middies are a bad bet, since the option offense is still lethal at 35.7 PPG, meaning they are still desirable underdog. Like the Navy, the Toledo defense has undermined what is still a very good offensive team. Teams have blown by Rockets defenders for 40.4 points a game, making Toledo a less sure selection. New Mexico is still in the hunt for Mountain West title, trailing BYU by one game. Coach Rocky Long has normally brought his teams along in Albuquerque to a stalwart finish.
Bottom Five November ATS teams from 2002.
Michigan State 3-14 – 5-12 ATS
Florida Atlantic 11-8 – 2-6 ATS
Wake Forest 5-11 - 4-12 ATS
Indiana 1-16 – 3-12 ATS
Colorado State 6-10 – 3-13 ATS
Michigan State has been like cookie in a child’s hand, they are devoured in the month of November. After usual fast starts they crumble and disappear, quickly changing the focus of the East Lansing crowds to basketball. Florida Atlantic is a relative newcomer to the betting board for almost four seasons. They have not closed the year successfully in the past and with three straight road games to conclude the season (at Florida and at Sun Belt leader Troy), the Owls may see bettor’s not give a hoot about them. Wake Forest came out of nowhere last season to be ACC champs, and have been a superior underdog under Jim Grobe. That will be tested with three of final four games on the road. The Demon Deacons have been up to the task in a broader sense, let’s see if they can make bust out of the final month doldrums they have had for years. Indiana has lost three in a row and is attempting desperately to honor former deceased coach Terry Hoeppner and play “13”. This year they lose Michigan or Penn State in November and pick up Northwestern. If they can beat Ball State this week and win at Evanston, they might place a glow on the football program for upbeat coach and become bowl eligible and overcome what had become a gruesome month. For years, Sonny Lubick’s Colorado State teams were like technology stocks, place a wager late in the season on them and watch your money grow. As the talent level has decreased, they have done a 180 degree turn and are a definite play against team in today’s marketplace.
In looking at other teams in college football, there are surprises both good and bad to consider. With Connecticut in first place in the Big East, many may not realize the Huskies are 11-5 and 9-5 ATS the last five years in November. Kansas State was perennial closer under Bill Snyder and might be ready to pick up where he left off under Ron Prince. The Wildcats are 12-5 and 11-6 ATS the last five campaigns. Some may be shocked to see SEC title contender LSU at 17-2 this month over a period of time; however are nothing more than .500 (8-8) club against the number. Florida State’s fall from the elite has been noticed also. The Seminoles used to own the ACC and finished with a flourish. In recent times they are 11-8 and a putrid 6-12 ATS.
Here is a look at the top five teams over the last decade and how they have performed in November.
Boise State 27-3 – 23-7 ATS
USC 29-6 – 25-10 ATS
Colorado 17-16 – 21-11 ATS
Navy 13-15 – 17-9 ATS
Louisville 23-10 – 21-11 ATS
Boise State actually has the sixth best mark the last five years and is a dominant team in the WAC late in the year. Colorado has a long history of playing well at home and on the road against the spread when Gary Barnett was roaming the sidelines. The Buffs might be challenge this year also. Louisville’s run might be over for the time being.
Bottom five teams over the last 10 seasons in November.
Kansas 11-21 –11-21 ATS
New Mexico State 10-21 – 11-20 ATS
Colorado State 17-13 – 10-19 ATS
Indiana 6-26 – 9-21 ATS
Baylor 3-31 – 8-24 ATS
It would a monumental collapse if Kansas adds to negative total this season. New Mexico State and Baylor have neither the talent nor ambition it seems to finish a season with more courageous efforts. In their case losing begets losing.
The last month of the college football season has raced up upon us. The anticipation of waiting all summer has given way to one of the most exciting and unpredictable seasons in years. Yet as the final leaves come off the trees from the chilly November winds, the powerful step forward and the meek timidly return to where they belong. What this month of college football shows us is teams that are strong, have depth and can rise to the occasion to close out a season and will do so. While other collegiate squads that have been racked up injuries or being worn down, will fade this month facing mostly conference opponents.
What this information has been broken down into two segments, one part since 2002 and the other over the last decade. The more recent figures are designed to show where specific programs have been over the last five years, in all likelihood with the same or similar coaching regime. Going back to 1997 does much the same thing, yet with personnel changes sheds light on the mindset of particular programs. What this will show is how teams performed in win/loss situations and against the point spread.
Top Five November ATS teams from 2002.
USC 17-0 – 14-3 ATS
Purdue 14-3 -13-3 ATS
Navy 8-6 – 11-3 ATS
Toledo 13-4 – 12-4 ATS
New Mexico 10-5 – 11-4 ATS
The Trojans have been a juggernaut in the Pete Carroll era in the month of November, laying waste to all Pac-10 teams and winning conference titles. Granted this year’s team doesn’t look to have the same fire and talent as before, that does not mean the Men of Troy won’t turn it up a notch. Besides they are unlikely to be overpriced after suffering a couple of defeats. Year in year out Purdue always struggles in October, typically starting the Big 10 season with the powerhouses of the league and failing. When the schedule lightens up, the Boilersmakers have closed with a vengeance. This is not the same Navy team we have grown accustomed to seeing, going to four straight bowl games under coach Paul Johnson. The dynamic that is different is the defense which is allowing 38.1 points a game. This does not mean the Middies are a bad bet, since the option offense is still lethal at 35.7 PPG, meaning they are still desirable underdog. Like the Navy, the Toledo defense has undermined what is still a very good offensive team. Teams have blown by Rockets defenders for 40.4 points a game, making Toledo a less sure selection. New Mexico is still in the hunt for Mountain West title, trailing BYU by one game. Coach Rocky Long has normally brought his teams along in Albuquerque to a stalwart finish.
Bottom Five November ATS teams from 2002.
Michigan State 3-14 – 5-12 ATS
Florida Atlantic 11-8 – 2-6 ATS
Wake Forest 5-11 - 4-12 ATS
Indiana 1-16 – 3-12 ATS
Colorado State 6-10 – 3-13 ATS
Michigan State has been like cookie in a child’s hand, they are devoured in the month of November. After usual fast starts they crumble and disappear, quickly changing the focus of the East Lansing crowds to basketball. Florida Atlantic is a relative newcomer to the betting board for almost four seasons. They have not closed the year successfully in the past and with three straight road games to conclude the season (at Florida and at Sun Belt leader Troy), the Owls may see bettor’s not give a hoot about them. Wake Forest came out of nowhere last season to be ACC champs, and have been a superior underdog under Jim Grobe. That will be tested with three of final four games on the road. The Demon Deacons have been up to the task in a broader sense, let’s see if they can make bust out of the final month doldrums they have had for years. Indiana has lost three in a row and is attempting desperately to honor former deceased coach Terry Hoeppner and play “13”. This year they lose Michigan or Penn State in November and pick up Northwestern. If they can beat Ball State this week and win at Evanston, they might place a glow on the football program for upbeat coach and become bowl eligible and overcome what had become a gruesome month. For years, Sonny Lubick’s Colorado State teams were like technology stocks, place a wager late in the season on them and watch your money grow. As the talent level has decreased, they have done a 180 degree turn and are a definite play against team in today’s marketplace.
In looking at other teams in college football, there are surprises both good and bad to consider. With Connecticut in first place in the Big East, many may not realize the Huskies are 11-5 and 9-5 ATS the last five years in November. Kansas State was perennial closer under Bill Snyder and might be ready to pick up where he left off under Ron Prince. The Wildcats are 12-5 and 11-6 ATS the last five campaigns. Some may be shocked to see SEC title contender LSU at 17-2 this month over a period of time; however are nothing more than .500 (8-8) club against the number. Florida State’s fall from the elite has been noticed also. The Seminoles used to own the ACC and finished with a flourish. In recent times they are 11-8 and a putrid 6-12 ATS.
Here is a look at the top five teams over the last decade and how they have performed in November.
Boise State 27-3 – 23-7 ATS
USC 29-6 – 25-10 ATS
Colorado 17-16 – 21-11 ATS
Navy 13-15 – 17-9 ATS
Louisville 23-10 – 21-11 ATS
Boise State actually has the sixth best mark the last five years and is a dominant team in the WAC late in the year. Colorado has a long history of playing well at home and on the road against the spread when Gary Barnett was roaming the sidelines. The Buffs might be challenge this year also. Louisville’s run might be over for the time being.
Bottom five teams over the last 10 seasons in November.
Kansas 11-21 –11-21 ATS
New Mexico State 10-21 – 11-20 ATS
Colorado State 17-13 – 10-19 ATS
Indiana 6-26 – 9-21 ATS
Baylor 3-31 – 8-24 ATS
It would a monumental collapse if Kansas adds to negative total this season. New Mexico State and Baylor have neither the talent nor ambition it seems to finish a season with more courageous efforts. In their case losing begets losing.
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