Amazing NFL stat

[roccodean]

Teams that won the game straight up is 1094-209-41 ATS the last 5 years in the NFL (84.1%). All you have to do is pick the winner, isn't that amazing!

[MtrCtyPimp]

GL picking the winner....thats not that easy either

PEACE

[roccodean]

I know that, but I just think it's an unbelievable stat.

[GOLDENGREEK]

NOT TRUE AT ALL !!!

READ THE FOLLOWING I FOUND AT ANOTHER SITE THAT DEBUNKS THIS THEORY:

Roughly 82% of all SU winners also cover the spread. On the surface, this seems like a revelation. It's not. For starters, this number is assuming you can pick every single SU winner.You cant!


If you could just pick 70% SU, you're having a very good season! Problem is, of the 70% SU winners you pick, only 82% of them will cover (theoretically) which means you'll only cover 57% ATS and that's for an exceptional season. By this theory, you'd have to pick at least 64% SU winners just to make a profit against -110 juice.

But wait, it gets worse. It's much easier to predict when favorites will win SU rather than dogs. Dogs are more of a crapshoot. Our 82% number is significantly skewed because it includes SU dog winners, which are obviously 100% in covering. You'll be lucky to have just a modest handful of these SU dog winners. Take out the dogs and we see that FAVORITES that win SU also cover the spread only 73% of the time. This is the reality of it. Now, a solid 70% season of picking SU favs will only net you 51% ATS and you'll actually lose money. You would need to hit 72% SU to see a profit but history shows that only 66% of favs actually win SU. So, the next time you hear someone say "Just pick the SU winner because they usually cover", you'll know they are getting the wrong idea. It's a true statement, but it doesn't help you.

This is a quote from a very experienced gambler who breaks down the myth

"the points dont matter when betting

Like most sophist arguments you will find throughout education and the media it is filled with half truths that dont lead to an ultimate truth.

Garbaaage as they say in french. Intellectual sloth. Random thoughts with no end. skippyrioness Ill call it."


INTRESTING

[roccodean]

Greek, I understand this theory and I understand the difficult part is picking the dog SU winners. Still as the article put it if you pick 70% SU winners you go 57% ATS (theoretically) which is a very solid year! This also begs the question should we play the money line on the dogs we bet. I had St. Louis week 10 and the Jets last week both DD dog SU winners...I don't know, just a thought.

[Kaptain]

Greek---

he says 84 % of winners also covered the spread, you say 82 %.....he says last 5 years, you dont stipulate a period of time........???????????????????????

Why do you come in and say ....NOT TRUE AT ALL !!!

You blatantly correcte him in his own thread, and yet you really agree with him....based on your write up...."Roughly 82% of all SU winners also cover the spread"...quoting you

and yes we all know, the hard part is to pick the winner........

Try and show a lil class when contradicting someone.....such as, I disagree and then show reasons/stats as to why....not show stats that actually support his statement, and so arrogantly say ....NOT TRUE AT ALL !!!

Shows lack of class to me, and also shows that you believe just your opinion has any bearing on the subject......no one elses ??????????

Classless IMO.....try and be a lil more courteious to your fellow members.........you would be up in arms if I did this to you....

[ScrantonKid]

Is this related to the theory that 84% of NFL games are decided by 3 points or less?

[SPREADWINNA]

if the favs win outright approx. 50% of the time..
and the dogs win outright approx. 50% of the time....
that stat is cut in half being that when the dog wins outright they automatically cover..and how many times has the fav won and not covered..
approx.50% of the time.
so that stat is reduced drastically...
not so amazing!

[roccodean]

Spreadwinna... i dont think that favorites win SU only 50% of the time, the last i read they win SU about 65-70% of the time. But you are right the key to the stat is that when the UD wins hey cover. But, like the greek article says even favorites cover when they win about 75% of the time! Still amazing.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Greek---

he says 84 % of winners also covered the spread, you say 82 %.....he says last 5 years, you dont stipulate a period of time........???????????????????????

Why do you come in and say ....NOT TRUE AT ALL !!!

You blatantly correcte him in his own thread, and yet you really agree with him....based on your write up...."Roughly 82% of all SU winners also cover the spread"...quoting you

and yes we all know, the hard part is to pick the winner........

Try and show a lil class when contradicting someone.....such as, I disagree and then show reasons/stats as to why....not show stats that actually support his statement, and so arrogantly say ....NOT TRUE AT ALL !!!

Shows lack of class to me, and also shows that you believe just your opinion has any bearing on the subject......no one elses ??????????

Classless IMO.....try and be a lil more courteious to your fellow members.........you would be up in arms if I did this to you....

Are you kidding me????

My post did back up the facts - read it again

I wasnt trying to bash -

Boy someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed

You dont like me very much Kapt. - Thats evident and thats fine, but I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you. I do respect my elders, so I will just let you say what you want about me and my posts and not reply at all.

Have a good one Kapt

[BettorsChat]

Have you guys been watching to see how little the spread comes into play each week?

[molta02]

rocco- thanks for helping out and sharing info, thats what this site is for.

however, people can lose some serious money pretty quick using this system, because they tend to just lay whatever pts because, 'if they win, they cover'.

[roccodean]

I agree molta...I just thought it was interesting. I don't think people should use this as a system by no means. It is an amazing fact though. Like I said it takes UD winners into account, so you have to be able to pick the pups. But, also favortites that win cover nearly 3/4 of the time too. Your right bettorschat...this year teams that win SU are 133-23-6 (85.2%) ATS.

[Kaptain]

Greek

Are you kidding me????

My post did back up the facts - read it again

I wasnt trying to bash -

Boy someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed

You dont like me very much Kapt. - Thats evident and thats fine, but I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you. I do respect my elders, so I will just let you say what you want about me and my posts and not reply at all.

Have a good one Kapt

If what you say in this post is what you meant, they why the.........

NOT TRUE AT ALL....comment.......

you go back and read what you said, not what you thought you were saying....

and as far as me not liking you (NOT TRUE AT ALL), I don't dislike anyone....they are who they are........

I reiterate----you arrogantly opened up with a strong, CAPITALIZED, statement....did you not........

and then almost repeted what he said, what was your point.....????????????

and you should respect your Elders, it's the proper thing to do....Thank you...

you have a nice day also, and try to be more consice/clear with your statements.....

I'm sure I'm not the only one who picked up on the .....NOT TRUE AT ALL----opening......

If you agree, then no need for the NOT TRUE AT ALL opening...

PS---what makes it evident in your saying, I don't like you... (where is the evidence to that)....I merely questioned, and still do the Capped statement....NOT TRUE AT ALL....when in reality, it is ter7e, and then you go on to better support his statement.......what, in heavens name, was NOT TRUE AT ALL, in his post....????

and yes you're right, someone did get up on the wrong side of the bed today, apparently you did.....kinda touchy when someone questions a blatant error on your part......

If you don't want criticism, then quit criticizing others, as NOT TRUE AT ALL....that's a criticism, and outright, statement, that he's wrong....

I ask you again, what did you mean by NOT TRUE AT ALL....re what part....if you would clarify that, then we have no disagreeance........when making that kind of statement, make it clear what you are referring to.....where there's no questions can be brought up....

Take this kind suggestion, from one of the Elders, you supposedly respect

[roccodean]

No need to argue fellas...it's all gravy. To get back to the post I just think its amazing that if you pick the SU winner in 7 out of 10 games you will would have won ATS 59% of the time and make a lot of cash.