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Usually don't have this many games on my card, but love the games this week!
You can check out all my picks on www.byeweekpicks.com (not a tout I assure you)
Week 8
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
3* Pittsburgh -3.5 over Cincinnati
If you have been following me the last few years you can see I rarely wager on road favorites, but I love Pittsburgh in this contest. Pittsburgh dominates this game statistically. The Steelers are ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing averaging 4.75 YPR and will be facing a Bengal's rush D that that is ranked 28th in the NFL allowing 4.67 YPR. Big Ben may not throw for many yards per game, but he throws for 7.85 YPPA good enough for 5th in the league. I don't trust Ben, but he will not have to throw the ball in this game, the Steelers will control the ball on the ground. The Bengal's offense is not the same as it was last year. They do not have a run game as they only average 3.8 YPR (21st in the NFL) and will likely be without R. Johnson this week again (listed as doubtful). The Steelers rush defense is strong allowing only 3.71 YPR (9th in NFL). Palmer has been forced to throw this season because of the lack of running game and is 10th in YPPA (7.67 YPPA) and are facing a great Steelers pass D that allows only 6.13 YPPA (3rd in the league). As you can see, the Steelers will be able to move the ball at will and Cinci's only strength (their passing game) will be shut down! My supersystem has Pitt -7.5 so there is great line value in this game. There is a great trend with the record of 34-10 favoring the Steelers that plays against Cinci for their high scoring game last week. The Steelers are coming off their disappointing loss at Denver and will be ready to bounce back for this divisional game.
3* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Jax
Tampa is a very good team this year and Jax defense might look good, but taking a closer look they are not. This week they will have Quinn Gray at the helm who played terrible in his limited playing time last week (2 interceptions). He is going to be in a world of hurt when he visits the Bucs this week. Jones-Drew is also probable but is banged up so the Jags strong rushing game will be limited; the Jags usually average 4.8 YPR (4th). Their pass game is usually below average with Garrard at the helm (7YPPA, 16th) but will definitely take a big hit this week. Defensively the Jags allow 3.9 YPR (13th) and their pass D is terrible allowing 7.5 YPPA (24th). Tampa's run game only average 3.9 YPR (20th), but Garcia has been playing great this year averaging 7.74 YPPA (7th). Defensively the Bucs are very strong only allowing 4 YPR and 6.19 YPPA (4th). Jax will not be able to move the ball on this strong Bucs D. Also, the Jags are coming off a short week off a Monday night game and have to travel to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. The Bucs BIG!
2* St. Louis +3 over Cleveland
Cleveland is definitely improved this year but road favorites with bad defenses (like the Browns) rarely cover in the NFL. The Rams are 0-7 this year, and this is precisely why I am betting them. Winless teams are 91-51-1 (64%) as dogs and 78-35 (69%) against teams with a win percentage of less that .750. The Ram's offense has been bad this year, but they will get just what they need this week, a terrible Browns defense. The Browns allow 4.9 YPR (30th) and 7 YPPA (16th). The Rams manage 3.5 YPR and 5.77 YPPA. With the return of S. Jackson their running game will improve and more importantly Bulger will have more time to throw the ball. Last week versus the Seahawks he was sacked 7 times (for 57 yards), but this week will face a Browns D that has only managed 1 sack/game (29th in NFL). The Browns offense is improved this year averaging 4.6 YPR (9th) and 7.89 YPPA (4th). But, J. Lewis is questionable which will hurt the browns big time. St. Louis' defense is below average, but not terrible; they give up 4 YPR (17th) and 7.2 YPPA. This game is not really about stats, but more on the fact that the Browns always play down to their opponents and the Rams are due for a win. Also, the Rams are -12 in turnover ratio, and I don't see this continuing the entire season especially if Bulger gets more time in the pocket. There are 5 trends favoring the Rams based on their recent poor play including a 54-21 (72%) trend.
2* Washington +16.5 over New England
When wagering on football you have to look at games objectively. I have bet against New England two weeks in a row, but you can't hold grudges when you bet you have to look at each week independently. This line should not be 16.5; the oddsmakers have to increase the line because the public continues to wager heavily on New England. This gives incredible line value to the opposing team. If you look solely at the statistics this line should not be over 9. The Redskins have one of the best defenses in the league and will be able to hold the Pats for the cover. I was surprised to see that the Patriots rushing numbers, they are not that strong. They average only 4.17 YPR (15th in the NFL) and their rushing defense is terrible allowing 4.4 YPR (24th). This week they will be facing an awesome Redskin rush D that is ranked 4th allowing only 3.5 YPR. Brady is having an amazing year averaging 9.2 YPPA (1st in the league). But, the Skins are 1st in the league allowing only 5.56 YPPA. The Skins run game is below average gaining 3.6 YPPA, but their passing game is not that bad gaining 7 YPPA. Campbell is a pretty good QB if he doesn't make mistakes. I am going to take advantage of the inflated line and ride the Skins. I also recommend taking the money line on Washington at +1100 for .10-.15 units. The Pats are not going to lose to a team that they are "supposed" to lose to (Indy, Dallas) so I think this is a good wager. Don't be afraid to bet against the Pats, the Skins D will keep them in this one for the cover!!!
2* N.Y. Jets -3 over Buffalo
Both of these teams are equally bad statistically, and I like to wager on the home team in these contests. Trent Edwards will make his first start on the road in the league and will see how hard it is to play as a visitor. The Jets are off 4 consecutive losses, while the Bills are off a big home underdog win versus the Ravens placing N.Y. in a great position for the victory. Also, the Jets are in a revenge position- they lost to the Bills 17-14 week 4 (this game was evenly matched). As I said both teams are bad statistically. The Bills average 3.71 YPR (23rd) and 6.22 YPPA (27th). Defensively, they allow 4.73 YPR (29th) and 7.23 YPPA (20th). The Jets average 3.37 YPR (28th) and 6.9 YPPA (18th). T. Jones has been playing better and Pennington is on the hot seat and played well last week. Defensively, they allow 4.3 YPR (21st) and 8.3 YPPA (30th). There are 5 trends playing against the Bills; one is 40-13 ATS playing against Buff for their big win last week. The Jets are out for revenge in this one!
2* San Francisco +2 over N.O.
New Orleans is coming of two consecutive wins, but they are still not the team they were last year and should not be a road favorite. The Saints were outplayed statistically in both of those games. San Fran is coming off 4 consecutive straight up losses and will be ready for this contest. The Niners are also in a good schedule position. They are in what I like to call a "sandwich" game; they played away last week and have 2 road games after this week (so they know this is a must win). San Fran's offense has struggled this year, but the will face a New Orleans defense that is bad. The Saints allow 25.3 PPG to teams that have averaged 20.9 PPG. Their run D is solid allowing only 3.6 YPR (6th), but their pass D is second to last in the NFL allowing 8.65 YPPA. The Niners running game is 16th in the NFL averaging 4.16 YPR and their pass game has struggled averaging only 5.31 YPPA, but as I mentioned will be facing a terrible pass defense. QB A. Smith and RB F. Gore are listed as probable this week. The Saints offense is also terrible; they only average 3.6 YPR (24th) and 5.64 (31st). Brees is not the same player without a running game, and without Deuce they are struggling running the ball. The Niners defense is very good allowing 3.6 YPR (12th) and 6.49 (8th). New Orleans is overrated and I will bet against them as a road favorite.
You can check out all my picks on www.byeweekpicks.com (not a tout I assure you)
Week 8
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
3* Pittsburgh -3.5 over Cincinnati
If you have been following me the last few years you can see I rarely wager on road favorites, but I love Pittsburgh in this contest. Pittsburgh dominates this game statistically. The Steelers are ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing averaging 4.75 YPR and will be facing a Bengal's rush D that that is ranked 28th in the NFL allowing 4.67 YPR. Big Ben may not throw for many yards per game, but he throws for 7.85 YPPA good enough for 5th in the league. I don't trust Ben, but he will not have to throw the ball in this game, the Steelers will control the ball on the ground. The Bengal's offense is not the same as it was last year. They do not have a run game as they only average 3.8 YPR (21st in the NFL) and will likely be without R. Johnson this week again (listed as doubtful). The Steelers rush defense is strong allowing only 3.71 YPR (9th in NFL). Palmer has been forced to throw this season because of the lack of running game and is 10th in YPPA (7.67 YPPA) and are facing a great Steelers pass D that allows only 6.13 YPPA (3rd in the league). As you can see, the Steelers will be able to move the ball at will and Cinci's only strength (their passing game) will be shut down! My supersystem has Pitt -7.5 so there is great line value in this game. There is a great trend with the record of 34-10 favoring the Steelers that plays against Cinci for their high scoring game last week. The Steelers are coming off their disappointing loss at Denver and will be ready to bounce back for this divisional game.
3* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Jax
Tampa is a very good team this year and Jax defense might look good, but taking a closer look they are not. This week they will have Quinn Gray at the helm who played terrible in his limited playing time last week (2 interceptions). He is going to be in a world of hurt when he visits the Bucs this week. Jones-Drew is also probable but is banged up so the Jags strong rushing game will be limited; the Jags usually average 4.8 YPR (4th). Their pass game is usually below average with Garrard at the helm (7YPPA, 16th) but will definitely take a big hit this week. Defensively the Jags allow 3.9 YPR (13th) and their pass D is terrible allowing 7.5 YPPA (24th). Tampa's run game only average 3.9 YPR (20th), but Garcia has been playing great this year averaging 7.74 YPPA (7th). Defensively the Bucs are very strong only allowing 4 YPR and 6.19 YPPA (4th). Jax will not be able to move the ball on this strong Bucs D. Also, the Jags are coming off a short week off a Monday night game and have to travel to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. The Bucs BIG!
2* St. Louis +3 over Cleveland
Cleveland is definitely improved this year but road favorites with bad defenses (like the Browns) rarely cover in the NFL. The Rams are 0-7 this year, and this is precisely why I am betting them. Winless teams are 91-51-1 (64%) as dogs and 78-35 (69%) against teams with a win percentage of less that .750. The Ram's offense has been bad this year, but they will get just what they need this week, a terrible Browns defense. The Browns allow 4.9 YPR (30th) and 7 YPPA (16th). The Rams manage 3.5 YPR and 5.77 YPPA. With the return of S. Jackson their running game will improve and more importantly Bulger will have more time to throw the ball. Last week versus the Seahawks he was sacked 7 times (for 57 yards), but this week will face a Browns D that has only managed 1 sack/game (29th in NFL). The Browns offense is improved this year averaging 4.6 YPR (9th) and 7.89 YPPA (4th). But, J. Lewis is questionable which will hurt the browns big time. St. Louis' defense is below average, but not terrible; they give up 4 YPR (17th) and 7.2 YPPA. This game is not really about stats, but more on the fact that the Browns always play down to their opponents and the Rams are due for a win. Also, the Rams are -12 in turnover ratio, and I don't see this continuing the entire season especially if Bulger gets more time in the pocket. There are 5 trends favoring the Rams based on their recent poor play including a 54-21 (72%) trend.
2* Washington +16.5 over New England
When wagering on football you have to look at games objectively. I have bet against New England two weeks in a row, but you can't hold grudges when you bet you have to look at each week independently. This line should not be 16.5; the oddsmakers have to increase the line because the public continues to wager heavily on New England. This gives incredible line value to the opposing team. If you look solely at the statistics this line should not be over 9. The Redskins have one of the best defenses in the league and will be able to hold the Pats for the cover. I was surprised to see that the Patriots rushing numbers, they are not that strong. They average only 4.17 YPR (15th in the NFL) and their rushing defense is terrible allowing 4.4 YPR (24th). This week they will be facing an awesome Redskin rush D that is ranked 4th allowing only 3.5 YPR. Brady is having an amazing year averaging 9.2 YPPA (1st in the league). But, the Skins are 1st in the league allowing only 5.56 YPPA. The Skins run game is below average gaining 3.6 YPPA, but their passing game is not that bad gaining 7 YPPA. Campbell is a pretty good QB if he doesn't make mistakes. I am going to take advantage of the inflated line and ride the Skins. I also recommend taking the money line on Washington at +1100 for .10-.15 units. The Pats are not going to lose to a team that they are "supposed" to lose to (Indy, Dallas) so I think this is a good wager. Don't be afraid to bet against the Pats, the Skins D will keep them in this one for the cover!!!
2* N.Y. Jets -3 over Buffalo
Both of these teams are equally bad statistically, and I like to wager on the home team in these contests. Trent Edwards will make his first start on the road in the league and will see how hard it is to play as a visitor. The Jets are off 4 consecutive losses, while the Bills are off a big home underdog win versus the Ravens placing N.Y. in a great position for the victory. Also, the Jets are in a revenge position- they lost to the Bills 17-14 week 4 (this game was evenly matched). As I said both teams are bad statistically. The Bills average 3.71 YPR (23rd) and 6.22 YPPA (27th). Defensively, they allow 4.73 YPR (29th) and 7.23 YPPA (20th). The Jets average 3.37 YPR (28th) and 6.9 YPPA (18th). T. Jones has been playing better and Pennington is on the hot seat and played well last week. Defensively, they allow 4.3 YPR (21st) and 8.3 YPPA (30th). There are 5 trends playing against the Bills; one is 40-13 ATS playing against Buff for their big win last week. The Jets are out for revenge in this one!
2* San Francisco +2 over N.O.
New Orleans is coming of two consecutive wins, but they are still not the team they were last year and should not be a road favorite. The Saints were outplayed statistically in both of those games. San Fran is coming off 4 consecutive straight up losses and will be ready for this contest. The Niners are also in a good schedule position. They are in what I like to call a "sandwich" game; they played away last week and have 2 road games after this week (so they know this is a must win). San Fran's offense has struggled this year, but the will face a New Orleans defense that is bad. The Saints allow 25.3 PPG to teams that have averaged 20.9 PPG. Their run D is solid allowing only 3.6 YPR (6th), but their pass D is second to last in the NFL allowing 8.65 YPPA. The Niners running game is 16th in the NFL averaging 4.16 YPR and their pass game has struggled averaging only 5.31 YPPA, but as I mentioned will be facing a terrible pass defense. QB A. Smith and RB F. Gore are listed as probable this week. The Saints offense is also terrible; they only average 3.6 YPR (24th) and 5.64 (31st). Brees is not the same player without a running game, and without Deuce they are struggling running the ball. The Niners defense is very good allowing 3.6 YPR (12th) and 6.49 (8th). New Orleans is overrated and I will bet against them as a road favorite.
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