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NFL Sighting (Trends/Systems/Thoughts)
This is seen elsewhere and posted for your entertainment. It is not meant to be use on gambling of any purpose. 
Please understand this is just for info purposes! I am leaving for Orlando in an hour for the weekend. Good Luck all!
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28TH
Cleveland at St. Louis
Rams are dead last in the league in scoring offense (11.3 points per game), total touchdowns (6), turnovers (23), and are the only team in the NFL without a rushing touchdown through seven weeks...
Cleveland is last in the league in total defense (413.0 yards per game), and has surrendered an NFL-worst 17 passing touchdowns on the year...Browns are 4-9 all-time following the bye week
Since when does Cleveland deserve to be laying points as a visitor?
this a Breather Alert for the Browns. Following this "easy" game, they play Seattle, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
St. Louis has lost and failed in its first seven tries and is 0-5 as dogs this year and 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home. However, there are signs that skid could end.
The Rams are 20-6 ATS at home off a division game and they have cashed at a 22-12-1 clip when hosting AFC teams. Conversely, Cleveland is 5-9-1 ATS on the road of late against NFC foes and 5-13-1 ATS coming off a SU win. The Browns have 'covered' 17 of 21 on the road when the total was 40 or more. Cleveland has zipped 'over' at a 5-0 clip while St. Louis has knuckled 'under' in five of six tries. The Browns have been on the low side in 16 of 19 when playing in domed stadiums and in 18 of 26 against a non-division opponent. The Rams have eclipsed the 'total' in 15 of 23 as non-conference dogs
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000.
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 5-0 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
Marc Bulger is 5-1 ATS as a home dog.
CLE is 4-1 ATS L5... CLE is 7-4 ATS L11 vs. NFC West... CLE is 6-3 ATS L9 as favorites... CLE is 10-3 to the UNDER L13 where the line is +3 to -3... CLE is 7-1 to the UNDER L8 non-conference games... CLE is 10-3 to the UNDER L13 when playing against a team with a losing record... STL is 1-6 ATS L7... STL is 10-3 ATS L13 vs. AFC North... STL is 1-6 ATS L7 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points... STL is 5-1 to the UNDER L6... STL is 33-17 to the OVER L50 non-conference games...
Detroit at Chicago
Chicago looks for revenge after losing the initial series meeting at Ford Field, 37-27.
Do the Bears really deserve to be favored by five just because Brian Griese had one great drive against a soft prevent defense?
Chicago struggled to score the entire game against the Eagles, though it should be noted that Detroit's stop unit is much worse than Philadelphia's. In that Week 4 matchup, Griese, making his first start, threw for 286 yards. He had three picks and a few fumbles as well. Can we chalk those up as flukes ?
Lions managed to sack Griese six times
The Bears lost to the Lions, and they need the win more.
So Vegas Favor the Bears at home
History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings.
History: Bears have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
History: Seven of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
Bears are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win.
(Teams 17-35 ATS in that situation since 2000; Lovie Smith 1-1).
Lions are 3-7 ATS on the road in 2006.
The series short-ender (LOSER)has cashed at an 11-4-1 clip. Detroit is 17-37 ATS on the road off a win and it is 1-8 as road pups of seven points or less. The Bears are 11-6-2 ATS versus division opponents.
They have zipped 'over' in 15 of 19 as favorites and 11 of 13 as home chalk. The Lions have ducked 'under' in 15 of 23 as division road dogs.
Detroit line has surrendered an NFL- worst 31 sacks on the season
Bears quarterback Brian Griese has thrown seven interceptions in three career starts against the Lions, including three in Chicago's Week 4 loss at Detroit
DET is 2-4 ATS L6 vs. CHI... DET is 3-7 ATS L10 vs. NFC North... DET is 3-8 ATS L11 road games... DET is 15-30 ATS L45 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points... DET is 9-3 to the OVER L12 road games...
DET is 10-5 to the UNDER L15 games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points... CHI is 3-10 ATS L13... CHI is 1-7 ATS L8 home games... CHI is 5-1 ATS L6 games revenging a loss against opponent... CHI is 12-3 to the OVER L15 home games... CHI is 20-11 to the OVER L31 vs. conference opponents...
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY Giants at Miami
Giants are seeking their first six- game winning streak since 2000, when they won seven in a row en route to a Super Bowl appearance
Dolphins' 10-game losing streak dating back to last season is their longest in franchise history, and they are 0-7 for the first time in the 42-year annals of the franchise
London-born Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora is tied for the NFL lead in sacks (8) along with Kansas City's Jared Allen, and New York is No. 1 in the league in sacks (27)...Miami is last in NFL scoring defense (33 points per game), and has surrendered a league-worst 10 rushing touchdowns on the year...
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000.
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 5-0 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
Giants are 7-12 ATS as favorites of 6½ or more the previous 18 instances.
The New York Giants have cashed five straight this year and seven straight in October. They are also 12-6 ATS prior to their bye week. Miami is 1-11 ATS during the first half of the past two seasons and it is 0-6 ATS after facing New England.
The winless Dolphins have 'covered' nine of 11 as dogs of more than six points and at a 7-3-1 clip as short-enders when facing an NFC foe. New York has zipped 'over' in 14 of 21 games as a non-conference favorite. Miami has ducked 'under' in seven of nine as double-digit dogs.
NYG are 5-0 ATS L5... NYG are 1-3-1 ATS L5 vs. AFC East... NYG are 9-1 ATS L10 Oct. games... NYG are 9-2 ATS L11 in weeks 5 through 9... NYG are 7-3 to the OVER L10 as a favorite... NYG are 17-8 to the UNDER L25 games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points... MIA is 1-4-2 ATS L7... MIA is 1-3-1 ATS L5 vs. NFC East... MIA is 2-9 ATS L11 Oct. games... MIA is 3-9 ATS L12 games in weeks 5 through 9... MIA is 5-1 to the OVER L6... MIA is 4-1 to the OVER L5 after 2 or more consecutive losses...\
Oakland at Tennessee
Tennessee leads the NFL in rushing defense (59.7 yards per game), while Oakland is last in yards allowed per rushing attempt (5.2)...
Titans and Raiders are tied for the NFL lead in interceptions recorded per game (1.67)...Raiders are the only team in the NFL that has yet to recover an opponent's fumble...
Raiders are 6-15 ATS in October since 2001.
Vince Young is 11-6 as a starter (13-4 ATS).
Oakland is 19-10 as road dogs after two SU losses. However, the Raiders are 5-15 ATS after losing by three points or less and 2-14-1 ATS after losing SU as favorites. Tennessee has failed to get the cash in 20 of 28 as favorites of 3 1/2 to seven points.
The Titans are also 2-9-1 ATS after winning by three points or less and 2-11 ATS after scoring 28 points or more. Oakland has trickled 'under' in 17 of 19 on the road when facing teams with a winning record and in 13 of 15 on the highway after the first month of the season. Tennessee has topped the 'total' at a 20-8-1 clip at LP Field.
OAK is 4-8 ATS L12 vs. TEN... OAK is 2-5 ATS L7 vs. AFC South... OAK is 2-9 ATS L11... OAK is 12-2 to the UNDER L14 when playing against a team with a winning record... OAK is 19-7 to the UNDER L26 as an underdog... OAK is 13-5 to the UNDER L18... TEN is 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. OAK... TEN is 0-6 ATS L6 vs. AFC West... TEN is 6-2 ATS L8 home games... TEN is 16-6 to the OVER L22 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... TEN is 11-3 to the OVER L14 off a division game... TEN is 6-1 to the OVER L7 off a win against a division rival...
OAKLAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons. OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. OAKLAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. TENNESSEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Vikings head coach Brad Childress, an assistant with the Eagles from 1999 through 2005, will meet his former employer and mentor Andy Reid for the first time as a head coach
We've seen situations like this work flawlessly over the past few years. Whenever former coaches and coordinators play their old team, they seem to have a strong advantage.
This occurred a couple Super Bowls ago, when Jon Gruden beat down the Raiders. The Cardinals defeated Pittsburgh because of Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm. Trent Dilfer and the 49ers battled the Ravens tough, thanks to Mike Nolan's familiarity with Baltimore. And just last week, the Lions and Rod Marinelli took down the Buccaneers.
This is a death trap for the Eagles.
They have Dallas next week and seem to be in disarray
Childress knows them better than anyone in the NFL
Minnesota is tops in the league in rushing offense (163.7 yards per game) and yards per rush (5.5)...
Vikings are last in NFL passing defense (282.5 yards per game)...Minnesota has surrendered just one rushing touchdown on the year, tied for the best figure in the league along with Pittsburgh
Philadelphia is 25-12 ATS against NFC-North opposition and 14-9 ATS on the road as favorites against conference opponents.
The Eagles have also cashed at a 21-13-1 clip when playing under domes. Minnesota has cashed 20 of 29 as home pups.
The Vikings have dipped 'under' in 23 of 32 on the heels of a two-game trip. Philadelphia has been on the low side in 10 of 13 as a non-division road favorite.
PHI is 8-1 ATS L9 vs. MIN... .. PHI is 2-8 ATS L10 games in weeks 5 through 9... PHI is 9-2 to the UNDER L11 when playing against a team with a losing record... PHI is 12-3 to the OVER L15 as an underdog... MIN is 1-6 ATS L7 home games... MIN is 3-6 ATS L9 vs. NFC East... MIN is 8-13 ATS L21 as an underdog... MIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6... MIN is 12-8 to the UNDER L20 dome games...
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pittsburgh leads the NFL in total defense (250.3 yards per game), scoring defense (13 points per game), and is tied for the league lead with just one rushing touchdown allowed, along with Minnesota...
The Steelers are 6-0 in Cincinnati since last losing there in 2001.
On one hand, the Steelers are coming off a road loss to play the defensively challenged Bengals in a rivalry where the visiting team usually wins. On the other hand, laying 3.5 is never a solid proposition in football, and the amount of money on Pittsburgh is just too much to ignore.
The Bengals are one of the worst teams against the run in the NFL. Willie Parker, one of the league leaders in rushing yards, could approach the 150 mark, setting up play-action opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger. Throwing the ball shouldn't be much of a problem anyway, seeing as how Cincinnati actually allowed Chad Pennington to look like a legitimate NFL quarterback.
The Bengals have only 11 sacks through six games, so I don't see how they're going to put any pressure on Roethlisberger. However, it should be noted that Pittsburgh had this type of game edge against Denver last week, and it didn't work out that way.
Beating the Steelers will be difficult. Covering the 3.5 with tons of cash flowing Pittsburgh's way? A bit easier.
Pittsburgh has won 13 of its last 16 at Cincinnati (12-4 ATS). The Steelers are also 18-6-2 ATS versus division foes on the road. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS at home in October off a SU win. They have cashed 15 of 18 when playing their second division game at Paul Brown Stadium.
The home team has failed to cash in nine of the past 10 series showdowns. Pittsburgh has slipped 'under' in 13 of 17 on the road after losing SU as favorites. Cincinnati has topped the 'total' in 25 of 36 as division home dogs.
PIT is 5-0-1 ATS L6 games at CIN... PIT is 3-6 ATS L9 vs. CIN... PIT is 37-20 ATS L57 Oct. games... PIT is 7-2 to the UNDER L9 games played on turf... PIT is 22-11 to the OVER L33 as a favorite... CIN is 6-12-1 ATS L19 home games... CIN is 9-2 ATS L11 vs. AFC North... CIN is 2-8 ATS L10 Oct. games... CIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 home games... CIN is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 home games vs. PIT...
PITTSBURGH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992. CINCINNATI is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Indianapolis at Carolina
looking to join the 1929-31 Green Bay Packers as the only teams in NFL history to start 7-0 in three straight seasons...
Indianapolis has now won 11 in a row dating back to last season...
The Panthers are 3-0 all-time against the Colts.
Indianapolis has committed a league-low four turnovers on the year and is an NFL-best +9 in turnover margin
Carolina has recorded a league-low four sacks on the season...Panthers are 5-7 all-time following the bye week.
Monday Might: Teams coming off a 17+ win on Monday Night Football are 26-14 ATS since 1999 (Tony Dungy 2-2).
Colts are 13-7 ATS vs. the NFC under Tony Dungy.
Colts are 24-17 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy. Peyton
Manning is 18-13 ATS as a road favorite since 2001
Indianapolis must avoid looking ahead to next week's titanic tussle with New England. The Colts are 17-5-1 ATS on the road outside their division. They have also 'covered' 10 of 13 off a division road contest. Carolina is just 2-9-1 in its last dozen home games.
However, the Panthers have 'covered' at a torrid 24-5-1 clip as underdogs. The defending champs have been on the high side at a 20-11-1 pace on the road when facing a non-division foe. Carolina has headed in the opposite direction in 13 of 17 after winning by 14 points or more and in 18 of 27 after yielding 10 points or less.
IND is 8-2 ATS L10... IND is 6-1 ATS L7 vs. NFC South... IND is 9-1 ATS L10 games in weeks 5 through 9... IND is 8-2 ATS L10 Oct. games... IND is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 road games... IND is 9-5 to the OVER L14 off a division game... CAR is 6-2 ATS L8... CAR is 1-4 ATS L5 home games... CAR is 1-4 ATS L5 vs. AFC South... CAR is 4-2 to the UNDER L6... CAR is 11-5 to the OVER L16 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points...
Buffalo at NY Jets
Bills have an NFL-low one touchdown pass as Week 8 begins...
The winner of the first Bills-Jets matchup has lost the return meeting in seven of the last eight seasons.
Chad Pennington still throws like an 8-year-old girl,
though he managed to compile 272 yards at Cincinnati last week. Sure, he battled the Bengals, but it's not like the Bills have the greatest defense in the world. Buffalo has only five sacks this year, which definitely plays a huge factor in its 31st ranking against the pass
I'm not sure what to make of Trent Edwards just yet. He makes solid throws, but he seems good for one horrendous pick-six in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, each of Edwards' three starts have been at home. We have yet to see him perform on the road. I'm not confident in his ability to walk into Giants Stadium and beat a desperate divisional rival just yet
The host has dominated this rivalry over the past few years, winning eight out of the past 10 meetings. And it also makes my life easier that the public is backing Buffalo.
Buffalo has 'covered' three straight and 11 of its last 15, though it has come up short in its last three on the road. The Bills are 4-15 ATS away from home after cashing three of four. They have 'covered' six of eight division road tests.
The New York Jets have cashed 10 of 15 series meetings at The Meadowlands and five of seven clashes overall. The Jets are 4-13-1 ATS after allowing 28 points or more. Four of the last five series encounters have zipped 'over.' New York has eclipsed the number in eight of nine at home when it was between 35 1/2 and 38.
BUF is 6-2 ATS L8 vs. NYJ... BUF is 11-4 ATS L15... BUF is 8-3 ATS L11 vs. AFC East... BUF is 5-2 to the UNDER L7... BUF is 10-5 to the UNDER L15 games where the line is +3 to -3... NYJ are 9-4 ATS L13 home games vs. BUF... NYJ are 0-4-1 ATS L5... NYJ are 0-3-1 ATS L4 vs. AFC East... NYJ are 12-4 to the OVER L16... NYJ are 8-1 to the OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points...
Houston at San Diego
Texans are averaging a league-low 3.1 yards per rushing attempt...Houston has lost an NFL-worst 10 fumbles on the season...Chargers are 8-9 all-time following the bye week.
Fifty-six members of the Chargers organization, including quarterback Philip Rivers and running back LaDainian Tomlinson, were forced to evacuate their homes due to the brushfires...
should this contest even be taking place? Look, I know there are more important things than football, but they do have the option of playing this game in Arizona or Los Angeles. There is no way to reschedule this contest, given that San Diego has already had its bye. And, tons of money is at stake, so the corporations who have a monetary interest in this game won't be too pleased.
Betting football is all about finding spots.
Given what the Chargers are going through right now, this is a terrible spot for them.
Two-thirds of the players, as well as Norv Turner, have been evacuated from their homes. There is no way this team is focused on the task at hand right now.
Houston is 16-6 ATS after losing by 10 points or less and 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Texans are 12-21-1 ATS when facing a non-division foe and just 4-13 as non-division dogs of three points or more. San Diego is 13-6 ATS off a double-digit division win.
The SU winner is 8-0 ATS when Houston faces an AFC-West opponent. The Texans have gone 'under' in 18 of 29 as road dogs.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992
HOU is 1-4 ATS L5... HOU is 4-2 ATS L6 vs. AFC West... HOU is 4-8 ATS L12 games in weeks 5 through 9... HOU is 11-3 to the OVER L14 off a division game... HOU is 9-2 to the OVER L11 off a loss against a division rival... SD is 3-6 ATS L9... SD is 6-0 ATS L6 vs. AFC South... SD is 9-3 ATS L12 Oct. games... SD is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 home games... SD is 6-3 to the UNDER L9 off a win against a division rival...
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Buccaneers have thrown an NFL-low one interception on the year, including zero in 189 attempts by starter Jeff Garcia, while Jaguars are now tied for second in the league with two picks thrown...Garcia has not thrown an INT in 270 pass attempts dating back to last season...
Jacksonville has allowed an NFL-low four touchdown passes on the year...Jaguars are 2-0 on the road this season, one of six NFL teams (Colts, Cowboys, Packers, Panthers, Patriots) that are unblemished away from home
The Jaguars could be really flat after losing their Super Bowl. They may also be down because David Garrard is out. The Buccaneers, coming off a loss, won't feel sorry for Jacksonville.
Monday Misery: Teams coming off a 17+ loss on Monday Night Football are 10-23 ATS since 1999.
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
JAC is 3-6 ATS L9... JAC is 1-3 ATS L4 vs. NFC South... JAC is 2-8 ATS L10 after playing on MNF... JAC is 4-2 to the UNDER L6... JAC is 9-5 to the UNDER L14 off a division game... TB is 4-2 ATS L6... TB is 1-4-1 ATS L6 vs. AFC South... TB is 6-10 ATS L16 as favorites... TB is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points... TB is 8-2 to the UNDER L10 non-conference games...
New Orleans at San Francisco
San Francisco is last in NFL total offense (213.8 yards per game) and passing offense (125 yards per game)...
Saints line has allowed a league-low four sacks on the year...New Orleans defense has a league-low three interceptions on the season.
The Saints are ranked 27th against the pass. Even Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington were able to move the chains against them. Given that New Orleans has to worry about Gore, Smith will have an economical afternoon, engineering enough scoring drives to cover.
I like San Francisco for two reasons.
First, there is way too much cash flowing the other way.
And second, I don't believe New Orleans is worthy of being a road favorite over anyone.
The team had one great half against the Seahawks, and just squeaked by the horrendous Falcons
NO is 8-2 ATS L10 vs. SF... NO is 1-8 ATS L9... NO is 4-7 ATS L11 vs. NFC West... NO is 3-11 ATS L14 as a favorite... NO is 4-2 to the OVER L6 road games... NO is 10-3 to the OVER L13 as a road favorite of 3 points or less... SF is 1-4 ATS L5 home games vs. NO... SF is 1-3-1 ATS L5 home games... SF is 3-7 ATS L10 Oct. games... SF is 5-0 to the OVER L5 home games vs. NO... SF is 12-4 to the OVER L16 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points...
Washington at New England
Lets face it only gamblers who’ve lost money will bet against the Patriots.
Those who are ahead will ride with them.
Following Washington's slim 21-19 victory over Arizona, some of the players, including Fred Smoot, were boasting about how they were going to give the Patriots a tough battle. Patrick Crayton and Terrell Owens, meanwhile, were trash-talking New England after a loss. I don't get it. Why is everyone so confident about their chances against the Patriots? Actually let me rephrase that. Why is everyone foolishly ignorant toward their future loss to the Patriots? No one outside of Indianapolis has a shot to knock off New England. If I were gameplanning against the Patriots,
I'd repeatedly proclaim that Bill Belichick is the best coach of all time. I'd set some of my female family members up with Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Tedy Bruschi. I'd show up waiving a white flag
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing yards (2125), passer rating (137.9), and touchdown passes (27), and New England is No. 1 in the league in total offense (432.9 yards per game), scoring offense (39.9 points per game), and passing offense (299.4 yards per game)...
Washington has yet to have a 100-yard rusher in a game this season
Betting wise the Pats are a money making machine. New England (7-0 SU&ATS) crushed Miami last week for its seventh straight victory, both straight up and against the spread. The Patriots thus became the ninth team in the last 10 years to cash as many as seven games in a row. The Patriots have 'covered' their last eight games in October and they are 11-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. New England has been on the high side in six of seven games while averaging 39.9 points. However, the potent Pats have been on the low side in 23 of 33 games following a two-game road trip. They have also slipped 'under' in 12 of 16 when hosting an NFC team and in 17 of 23 off a SU road win versus a division foe.
Redskins head coach Joe Gibbs is 3-0 all-time against the Patriots.
Patriots are 36-22 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
Tom Brady is 89-25 as a starter (73-39 ATS).
WAS is 2-4-2 ATS L8 road games... WAS is 1-1-3 ATS L5 vs. AFC East... WAS is 10-5 ATS L15 when playing against a team with a winning record... WAS is 5-1 to the UNDER L6... WAS is 8-4 to the OVER L12 Oct. games... NE is 7-0 ATS L7... NE is 11-3 ATS L14 as a favorite of 10 or more points... NE is 4-0-1 ATS L5 vs. NFC East... NE is 4-12 ATS L16 home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points... NE is 7-1 to the OVER L8... NE is 5-1 to the OVER L6 as a favorite of 10 or more points...
MONDAY, OCTOBER 29TH
Green Bay at Denver
Green Bay is last in the NFL in rushing offense (65.7 yards per game), and Denver is last in the league in rushing defense (176.2 yards per game)...Packers are 10-8 all-time following the bye week
Green Bay is 24-25-1 (.490) all-time on Monday night, and has lost five in a row on the second night of the week...Broncos are 24-29-1 (.454) on Monday, including two consecutive victories
Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS versus AFC foes. Denver has cashed nine of 12 after scoring 28 points or more. The Broncos are 5-15 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 1-9 ATS at home before playing back-to-back road games. They have zipped 'over' in 24 of 36 as favorites against NFC opposition and at a 20-5-1 clip as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or less.
GB is 5-1-1 ATS L7... GB is 4-0 ATS L4 vs. AFC West... GB is 5-0-1 ATS L6 road games... GB is 4-1 to the OVER L5... GB is 4-1 to the OVER L5 road games... DEN is 1-7 ATS L8... DEN is 1-9 ATS L10 home games... DEN is 4-12 ATS L16 vs. NFC North... DEN is 7-1 to the OVER L8 non-conference games... DEN is 14-5 to the OVER L19 when playing against a team with a winning record...
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Denver trap. The team has one good game, and suddenly they're 3-point favorites over a 5-1 squad? Give me a break.
Mike Shanahan is 2-9 ATS at home following a home win.
Brett Favre is 17-12 on Monday Night. Broncos are 14-9 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 23 instances.
Broncos are 3-14 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
Broncos are 5-9 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
Broncos are 1-9 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 10 instances.
Most teams will never play more than two consecutive games at home or on the road, but there are a few occasions during the course of a season where teams are asked to play back-to-back-to-back home or road games. These sets of triplet games are often interrupted by the bye week.
THIRD CONSECUTIVE HOME GAME
As a dog or favorite of -3.5 or less points vs. opponent off back to back wins, teams in their third consecutive home game are 32-17 ATS since 1980 (Buffalo qualified). If home team is .500 or better on the season, they improve to 18-5 ATS.
NFL teams are 8-2-1 ATS since 2001 in their third straight home game with the line at 4 or less points. (Buffalo qualified)
NFL teams are 4-1 ATS in their third straight home game vs. an opponent off a double digit SU loss.
NFL teams in their third consecutive home game are 33-14 ATS provided they enter off a straight up loss and own a won/loss percentage of .375 or better.
Home favorites of -4 points or more off a win and playing in their third consecutive home game vs. an opponent off back to back losses are 5-17 ATS.
THIRD CONSECUTIVE ROAD GAME
Teams playing in their third straight road game are 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS as dogs of +3 points when playing off a SU underdog win, including 1-10 SU and 1-10 ATS if the total of the game is lined at 37 points or less.
Any team that's playing its third consecutive road game vs. a division foe with a .500 (or better) record, and both teams are off a straight-up win, are 2-10 ATS.
Teams off a win and playing their third straight road game are 2-14 ATS, if their win percentage is between .666 and .900, and they're not favored by a field goal or more.
Teams playing their third straight road game and are off a SU/ATS win and the SU win was by 5 points or more vs. a winning foe are 2-19 SU and 3-18 ATS since 1994.
Teams on the road for the third consecutive game and off a SU and ATS win are 29-57 ATS including 12-29 ATS in this set coming off a division game. With those two parameters applied and the guest priced as an underdog of +3 or more last game, this trend crashes to 3-15 ATS and is currently on a 1-12 SU and 1-12 ATS run since 1990.
Teams with a winning record playing their third consecutive road game are 35-56 ATS. If the weary traveler is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .375 or better, this angle slides to 20-44 ATS.
Remaining teams that may qualify for any of the above trends/angles are;
10/29 DENVER hosts Green Bay
11/11 MIAMI hosts Buffalo
11/11 JACKSONVILLE @ Tennessee
11/11 TENNESSEE hosts Jacksonville
11/18 NY JETS hosts Pittsburgh
11/29 DALLAS hosts Green Bay
12/23 NEW ENGLAND hosts Miami12/23 SAN FRANCISCO hosts Tampa Bay
Denver qualifies for
As a dog or favorite of -3.5 or less points vs. opponent off back to back wins, teams in their third consecutive home game are 32-17 ATS since 1980 (Buffalo qualified). If home team is .500 or better on the season, they improve to 18-5 ATS.
NFL teams are 8-2-1 ATS since 2001 in their third straight home game with the line at 4 or less points. (Buffalo qualified)
NFL teams are 4-1 ATS in their third straight home game vs. an opponent off a double digit SU loss.
His selections!_______________
07-08 NCAAF: (5-3) - 63%
<>10/28 Colts -6.5 ($100)
<>10/28 Patriots -16 ($25)
<>10/28 Saints -2.5 ($25)
<>10/28 Buccaneers -3.5 ($25)
<>10/28 Steelers -3 ($50)
<>10/28 Vikings +1 ($50)
<>10/28 Browns -3 ($25)
<>10/28 Giants -9.5 ($25)
<>10/28 Bills +3 ($25)
Please understand this is just for info purposes! I am leaving for Orlando in an hour for the weekend. Good Luck all!
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28TH
Cleveland at St. Louis
Rams are dead last in the league in scoring offense (11.3 points per game), total touchdowns (6), turnovers (23), and are the only team in the NFL without a rushing touchdown through seven weeks...
Cleveland is last in the league in total defense (413.0 yards per game), and has surrendered an NFL-worst 17 passing touchdowns on the year...Browns are 4-9 all-time following the bye week
Since when does Cleveland deserve to be laying points as a visitor?
this a Breather Alert for the Browns. Following this "easy" game, they play Seattle, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
St. Louis has lost and failed in its first seven tries and is 0-5 as dogs this year and 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home. However, there are signs that skid could end.
The Rams are 20-6 ATS at home off a division game and they have cashed at a 22-12-1 clip when hosting AFC teams. Conversely, Cleveland is 5-9-1 ATS on the road of late against NFC foes and 5-13-1 ATS coming off a SU win. The Browns have 'covered' 17 of 21 on the road when the total was 40 or more. Cleveland has zipped 'over' at a 5-0 clip while St. Louis has knuckled 'under' in five of six tries. The Browns have been on the low side in 16 of 19 when playing in domed stadiums and in 18 of 26 against a non-division opponent. The Rams have eclipsed the 'total' in 15 of 23 as non-conference dogs
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000.
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 5-0 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
Marc Bulger is 5-1 ATS as a home dog.
CLE is 4-1 ATS L5... CLE is 7-4 ATS L11 vs. NFC West... CLE is 6-3 ATS L9 as favorites... CLE is 10-3 to the UNDER L13 where the line is +3 to -3... CLE is 7-1 to the UNDER L8 non-conference games... CLE is 10-3 to the UNDER L13 when playing against a team with a losing record... STL is 1-6 ATS L7... STL is 10-3 ATS L13 vs. AFC North... STL is 1-6 ATS L7 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points... STL is 5-1 to the UNDER L6... STL is 33-17 to the OVER L50 non-conference games...
Detroit at Chicago
Chicago looks for revenge after losing the initial series meeting at Ford Field, 37-27.
Do the Bears really deserve to be favored by five just because Brian Griese had one great drive against a soft prevent defense?
Chicago struggled to score the entire game against the Eagles, though it should be noted that Detroit's stop unit is much worse than Philadelphia's. In that Week 4 matchup, Griese, making his first start, threw for 286 yards. He had three picks and a few fumbles as well. Can we chalk those up as flukes ?
Lions managed to sack Griese six times
The Bears lost to the Lions, and they need the win more.
So Vegas Favor the Bears at home
History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings.
History: Bears have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
History: Seven of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
Bears are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win.
(Teams 17-35 ATS in that situation since 2000; Lovie Smith 1-1).
Lions are 3-7 ATS on the road in 2006.
The series short-ender (LOSER)has cashed at an 11-4-1 clip. Detroit is 17-37 ATS on the road off a win and it is 1-8 as road pups of seven points or less. The Bears are 11-6-2 ATS versus division opponents.
They have zipped 'over' in 15 of 19 as favorites and 11 of 13 as home chalk. The Lions have ducked 'under' in 15 of 23 as division road dogs.
Detroit line has surrendered an NFL- worst 31 sacks on the season
Bears quarterback Brian Griese has thrown seven interceptions in three career starts against the Lions, including three in Chicago's Week 4 loss at Detroit
DET is 2-4 ATS L6 vs. CHI... DET is 3-7 ATS L10 vs. NFC North... DET is 3-8 ATS L11 road games... DET is 15-30 ATS L45 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points... DET is 9-3 to the OVER L12 road games...
DET is 10-5 to the UNDER L15 games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points... CHI is 3-10 ATS L13... CHI is 1-7 ATS L8 home games... CHI is 5-1 ATS L6 games revenging a loss against opponent... CHI is 12-3 to the OVER L15 home games... CHI is 20-11 to the OVER L31 vs. conference opponents...
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY Giants at Miami
Giants are seeking their first six- game winning streak since 2000, when they won seven in a row en route to a Super Bowl appearance
Dolphins' 10-game losing streak dating back to last season is their longest in franchise history, and they are 0-7 for the first time in the 42-year annals of the franchise
London-born Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora is tied for the NFL lead in sacks (8) along with Kansas City's Jared Allen, and New York is No. 1 in the league in sacks (27)...Miami is last in NFL scoring defense (33 points per game), and has surrendered a league-worst 10 rushing touchdowns on the year...
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000.
Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 5-0 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
Giants are 7-12 ATS as favorites of 6½ or more the previous 18 instances.
The New York Giants have cashed five straight this year and seven straight in October. They are also 12-6 ATS prior to their bye week. Miami is 1-11 ATS during the first half of the past two seasons and it is 0-6 ATS after facing New England.
The winless Dolphins have 'covered' nine of 11 as dogs of more than six points and at a 7-3-1 clip as short-enders when facing an NFC foe. New York has zipped 'over' in 14 of 21 games as a non-conference favorite. Miami has ducked 'under' in seven of nine as double-digit dogs.
NYG are 5-0 ATS L5... NYG are 1-3-1 ATS L5 vs. AFC East... NYG are 9-1 ATS L10 Oct. games... NYG are 9-2 ATS L11 in weeks 5 through 9... NYG are 7-3 to the OVER L10 as a favorite... NYG are 17-8 to the UNDER L25 games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points... MIA is 1-4-2 ATS L7... MIA is 1-3-1 ATS L5 vs. NFC East... MIA is 2-9 ATS L11 Oct. games... MIA is 3-9 ATS L12 games in weeks 5 through 9... MIA is 5-1 to the OVER L6... MIA is 4-1 to the OVER L5 after 2 or more consecutive losses...\
Oakland at Tennessee
Tennessee leads the NFL in rushing defense (59.7 yards per game), while Oakland is last in yards allowed per rushing attempt (5.2)...
Titans and Raiders are tied for the NFL lead in interceptions recorded per game (1.67)...Raiders are the only team in the NFL that has yet to recover an opponent's fumble...
Raiders are 6-15 ATS in October since 2001.
Vince Young is 11-6 as a starter (13-4 ATS).
Oakland is 19-10 as road dogs after two SU losses. However, the Raiders are 5-15 ATS after losing by three points or less and 2-14-1 ATS after losing SU as favorites. Tennessee has failed to get the cash in 20 of 28 as favorites of 3 1/2 to seven points.
The Titans are also 2-9-1 ATS after winning by three points or less and 2-11 ATS after scoring 28 points or more. Oakland has trickled 'under' in 17 of 19 on the road when facing teams with a winning record and in 13 of 15 on the highway after the first month of the season. Tennessee has topped the 'total' at a 20-8-1 clip at LP Field.
OAK is 4-8 ATS L12 vs. TEN... OAK is 2-5 ATS L7 vs. AFC South... OAK is 2-9 ATS L11... OAK is 12-2 to the UNDER L14 when playing against a team with a winning record... OAK is 19-7 to the UNDER L26 as an underdog... OAK is 13-5 to the UNDER L18... TEN is 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. OAK... TEN is 0-6 ATS L6 vs. AFC West... TEN is 6-2 ATS L8 home games... TEN is 16-6 to the OVER L22 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... TEN is 11-3 to the OVER L14 off a division game... TEN is 6-1 to the OVER L7 off a win against a division rival...
OAKLAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons. OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. OAKLAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. TENNESSEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Vikings head coach Brad Childress, an assistant with the Eagles from 1999 through 2005, will meet his former employer and mentor Andy Reid for the first time as a head coach
We've seen situations like this work flawlessly over the past few years. Whenever former coaches and coordinators play their old team, they seem to have a strong advantage.
This occurred a couple Super Bowls ago, when Jon Gruden beat down the Raiders. The Cardinals defeated Pittsburgh because of Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm. Trent Dilfer and the 49ers battled the Ravens tough, thanks to Mike Nolan's familiarity with Baltimore. And just last week, the Lions and Rod Marinelli took down the Buccaneers.
This is a death trap for the Eagles.
They have Dallas next week and seem to be in disarray
Childress knows them better than anyone in the NFL
Minnesota is tops in the league in rushing offense (163.7 yards per game) and yards per rush (5.5)...
Vikings are last in NFL passing defense (282.5 yards per game)...Minnesota has surrendered just one rushing touchdown on the year, tied for the best figure in the league along with Pittsburgh
Philadelphia is 25-12 ATS against NFC-North opposition and 14-9 ATS on the road as favorites against conference opponents.
The Eagles have also cashed at a 21-13-1 clip when playing under domes. Minnesota has cashed 20 of 29 as home pups.
The Vikings have dipped 'under' in 23 of 32 on the heels of a two-game trip. Philadelphia has been on the low side in 10 of 13 as a non-division road favorite.
PHI is 8-1 ATS L9 vs. MIN... .. PHI is 2-8 ATS L10 games in weeks 5 through 9... PHI is 9-2 to the UNDER L11 when playing against a team with a losing record... PHI is 12-3 to the OVER L15 as an underdog... MIN is 1-6 ATS L7 home games... MIN is 3-6 ATS L9 vs. NFC East... MIN is 8-13 ATS L21 as an underdog... MIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6... MIN is 12-8 to the UNDER L20 dome games...
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pittsburgh leads the NFL in total defense (250.3 yards per game), scoring defense (13 points per game), and is tied for the league lead with just one rushing touchdown allowed, along with Minnesota...
The Steelers are 6-0 in Cincinnati since last losing there in 2001.
On one hand, the Steelers are coming off a road loss to play the defensively challenged Bengals in a rivalry where the visiting team usually wins. On the other hand, laying 3.5 is never a solid proposition in football, and the amount of money on Pittsburgh is just too much to ignore.
The Bengals are one of the worst teams against the run in the NFL. Willie Parker, one of the league leaders in rushing yards, could approach the 150 mark, setting up play-action opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger. Throwing the ball shouldn't be much of a problem anyway, seeing as how Cincinnati actually allowed Chad Pennington to look like a legitimate NFL quarterback.
The Bengals have only 11 sacks through six games, so I don't see how they're going to put any pressure on Roethlisberger. However, it should be noted that Pittsburgh had this type of game edge against Denver last week, and it didn't work out that way.
Beating the Steelers will be difficult. Covering the 3.5 with tons of cash flowing Pittsburgh's way? A bit easier.
Pittsburgh has won 13 of its last 16 at Cincinnati (12-4 ATS). The Steelers are also 18-6-2 ATS versus division foes on the road. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS at home in October off a SU win. They have cashed 15 of 18 when playing their second division game at Paul Brown Stadium.
The home team has failed to cash in nine of the past 10 series showdowns. Pittsburgh has slipped 'under' in 13 of 17 on the road after losing SU as favorites. Cincinnati has topped the 'total' in 25 of 36 as division home dogs.
PIT is 5-0-1 ATS L6 games at CIN... PIT is 3-6 ATS L9 vs. CIN... PIT is 37-20 ATS L57 Oct. games... PIT is 7-2 to the UNDER L9 games played on turf... PIT is 22-11 to the OVER L33 as a favorite... CIN is 6-12-1 ATS L19 home games... CIN is 9-2 ATS L11 vs. AFC North... CIN is 2-8 ATS L10 Oct. games... CIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 home games... CIN is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 home games vs. PIT...
PITTSBURGH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992. CINCINNATI is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Indianapolis at Carolina
looking to join the 1929-31 Green Bay Packers as the only teams in NFL history to start 7-0 in three straight seasons...
Indianapolis has now won 11 in a row dating back to last season...
The Panthers are 3-0 all-time against the Colts.
Indianapolis has committed a league-low four turnovers on the year and is an NFL-best +9 in turnover margin
Carolina has recorded a league-low four sacks on the season...Panthers are 5-7 all-time following the bye week.
Monday Might: Teams coming off a 17+ win on Monday Night Football are 26-14 ATS since 1999 (Tony Dungy 2-2).
Colts are 13-7 ATS vs. the NFC under Tony Dungy.
Colts are 24-17 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy. Peyton
Manning is 18-13 ATS as a road favorite since 2001
Indianapolis must avoid looking ahead to next week's titanic tussle with New England. The Colts are 17-5-1 ATS on the road outside their division. They have also 'covered' 10 of 13 off a division road contest. Carolina is just 2-9-1 in its last dozen home games.
However, the Panthers have 'covered' at a torrid 24-5-1 clip as underdogs. The defending champs have been on the high side at a 20-11-1 pace on the road when facing a non-division foe. Carolina has headed in the opposite direction in 13 of 17 after winning by 14 points or more and in 18 of 27 after yielding 10 points or less.
IND is 8-2 ATS L10... IND is 6-1 ATS L7 vs. NFC South... IND is 9-1 ATS L10 games in weeks 5 through 9... IND is 8-2 ATS L10 Oct. games... IND is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 road games... IND is 9-5 to the OVER L14 off a division game... CAR is 6-2 ATS L8... CAR is 1-4 ATS L5 home games... CAR is 1-4 ATS L5 vs. AFC South... CAR is 4-2 to the UNDER L6... CAR is 11-5 to the OVER L16 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points...
Buffalo at NY Jets
Bills have an NFL-low one touchdown pass as Week 8 begins...
The winner of the first Bills-Jets matchup has lost the return meeting in seven of the last eight seasons.
Chad Pennington still throws like an 8-year-old girl,
though he managed to compile 272 yards at Cincinnati last week. Sure, he battled the Bengals, but it's not like the Bills have the greatest defense in the world. Buffalo has only five sacks this year, which definitely plays a huge factor in its 31st ranking against the pass
I'm not sure what to make of Trent Edwards just yet. He makes solid throws, but he seems good for one horrendous pick-six in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, each of Edwards' three starts have been at home. We have yet to see him perform on the road. I'm not confident in his ability to walk into Giants Stadium and beat a desperate divisional rival just yet
The host has dominated this rivalry over the past few years, winning eight out of the past 10 meetings. And it also makes my life easier that the public is backing Buffalo.
Buffalo has 'covered' three straight and 11 of its last 15, though it has come up short in its last three on the road. The Bills are 4-15 ATS away from home after cashing three of four. They have 'covered' six of eight division road tests.
The New York Jets have cashed 10 of 15 series meetings at The Meadowlands and five of seven clashes overall. The Jets are 4-13-1 ATS after allowing 28 points or more. Four of the last five series encounters have zipped 'over.' New York has eclipsed the number in eight of nine at home when it was between 35 1/2 and 38.
BUF is 6-2 ATS L8 vs. NYJ... BUF is 11-4 ATS L15... BUF is 8-3 ATS L11 vs. AFC East... BUF is 5-2 to the UNDER L7... BUF is 10-5 to the UNDER L15 games where the line is +3 to -3... NYJ are 9-4 ATS L13 home games vs. BUF... NYJ are 0-4-1 ATS L5... NYJ are 0-3-1 ATS L4 vs. AFC East... NYJ are 12-4 to the OVER L16... NYJ are 8-1 to the OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points...
Houston at San Diego
Texans are averaging a league-low 3.1 yards per rushing attempt...Houston has lost an NFL-worst 10 fumbles on the season...Chargers are 8-9 all-time following the bye week.
Fifty-six members of the Chargers organization, including quarterback Philip Rivers and running back LaDainian Tomlinson, were forced to evacuate their homes due to the brushfires...
should this contest even be taking place? Look, I know there are more important things than football, but they do have the option of playing this game in Arizona or Los Angeles. There is no way to reschedule this contest, given that San Diego has already had its bye. And, tons of money is at stake, so the corporations who have a monetary interest in this game won't be too pleased.
Betting football is all about finding spots.
Given what the Chargers are going through right now, this is a terrible spot for them.
Two-thirds of the players, as well as Norv Turner, have been evacuated from their homes. There is no way this team is focused on the task at hand right now.
Houston is 16-6 ATS after losing by 10 points or less and 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Texans are 12-21-1 ATS when facing a non-division foe and just 4-13 as non-division dogs of three points or more. San Diego is 13-6 ATS off a double-digit division win.
The SU winner is 8-0 ATS when Houston faces an AFC-West opponent. The Texans have gone 'under' in 18 of 29 as road dogs.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992
HOU is 1-4 ATS L5... HOU is 4-2 ATS L6 vs. AFC West... HOU is 4-8 ATS L12 games in weeks 5 through 9... HOU is 11-3 to the OVER L14 off a division game... HOU is 9-2 to the OVER L11 off a loss against a division rival... SD is 3-6 ATS L9... SD is 6-0 ATS L6 vs. AFC South... SD is 9-3 ATS L12 Oct. games... SD is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 home games... SD is 6-3 to the UNDER L9 off a win against a division rival...
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Buccaneers have thrown an NFL-low one interception on the year, including zero in 189 attempts by starter Jeff Garcia, while Jaguars are now tied for second in the league with two picks thrown...Garcia has not thrown an INT in 270 pass attempts dating back to last season...
Jacksonville has allowed an NFL-low four touchdown passes on the year...Jaguars are 2-0 on the road this season, one of six NFL teams (Colts, Cowboys, Packers, Panthers, Patriots) that are unblemished away from home
The Jaguars could be really flat after losing their Super Bowl. They may also be down because David Garrard is out. The Buccaneers, coming off a loss, won't feel sorry for Jacksonville.
Monday Misery: Teams coming off a 17+ loss on Monday Night Football are 10-23 ATS since 1999.
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
JAC is 3-6 ATS L9... JAC is 1-3 ATS L4 vs. NFC South... JAC is 2-8 ATS L10 after playing on MNF... JAC is 4-2 to the UNDER L6... JAC is 9-5 to the UNDER L14 off a division game... TB is 4-2 ATS L6... TB is 1-4-1 ATS L6 vs. AFC South... TB is 6-10 ATS L16 as favorites... TB is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points... TB is 8-2 to the UNDER L10 non-conference games...
New Orleans at San Francisco
San Francisco is last in NFL total offense (213.8 yards per game) and passing offense (125 yards per game)...
Saints line has allowed a league-low four sacks on the year...New Orleans defense has a league-low three interceptions on the season.
The Saints are ranked 27th against the pass. Even Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington were able to move the chains against them. Given that New Orleans has to worry about Gore, Smith will have an economical afternoon, engineering enough scoring drives to cover.
I like San Francisco for two reasons.
First, there is way too much cash flowing the other way.
And second, I don't believe New Orleans is worthy of being a road favorite over anyone.
The team had one great half against the Seahawks, and just squeaked by the horrendous Falcons
NO is 8-2 ATS L10 vs. SF... NO is 1-8 ATS L9... NO is 4-7 ATS L11 vs. NFC West... NO is 3-11 ATS L14 as a favorite... NO is 4-2 to the OVER L6 road games... NO is 10-3 to the OVER L13 as a road favorite of 3 points or less... SF is 1-4 ATS L5 home games vs. NO... SF is 1-3-1 ATS L5 home games... SF is 3-7 ATS L10 Oct. games... SF is 5-0 to the OVER L5 home games vs. NO... SF is 12-4 to the OVER L16 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points...
Washington at New England
Lets face it only gamblers who’ve lost money will bet against the Patriots.
Those who are ahead will ride with them.
Following Washington's slim 21-19 victory over Arizona, some of the players, including Fred Smoot, were boasting about how they were going to give the Patriots a tough battle. Patrick Crayton and Terrell Owens, meanwhile, were trash-talking New England after a loss. I don't get it. Why is everyone so confident about their chances against the Patriots? Actually let me rephrase that. Why is everyone foolishly ignorant toward their future loss to the Patriots? No one outside of Indianapolis has a shot to knock off New England. If I were gameplanning against the Patriots,
I'd repeatedly proclaim that Bill Belichick is the best coach of all time. I'd set some of my female family members up with Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Tedy Bruschi. I'd show up waiving a white flag
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing yards (2125), passer rating (137.9), and touchdown passes (27), and New England is No. 1 in the league in total offense (432.9 yards per game), scoring offense (39.9 points per game), and passing offense (299.4 yards per game)...
Washington has yet to have a 100-yard rusher in a game this season
Betting wise the Pats are a money making machine. New England (7-0 SU&ATS) crushed Miami last week for its seventh straight victory, both straight up and against the spread. The Patriots thus became the ninth team in the last 10 years to cash as many as seven games in a row. The Patriots have 'covered' their last eight games in October and they are 11-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. New England has been on the high side in six of seven games while averaging 39.9 points. However, the potent Pats have been on the low side in 23 of 33 games following a two-game road trip. They have also slipped 'under' in 12 of 16 when hosting an NFC team and in 17 of 23 off a SU road win versus a division foe.
Redskins head coach Joe Gibbs is 3-0 all-time against the Patriots.
Patriots are 36-22 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
Tom Brady is 89-25 as a starter (73-39 ATS).
WAS is 2-4-2 ATS L8 road games... WAS is 1-1-3 ATS L5 vs. AFC East... WAS is 10-5 ATS L15 when playing against a team with a winning record... WAS is 5-1 to the UNDER L6... WAS is 8-4 to the OVER L12 Oct. games... NE is 7-0 ATS L7... NE is 11-3 ATS L14 as a favorite of 10 or more points... NE is 4-0-1 ATS L5 vs. NFC East... NE is 4-12 ATS L16 home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points... NE is 7-1 to the OVER L8... NE is 5-1 to the OVER L6 as a favorite of 10 or more points...
MONDAY, OCTOBER 29TH
Green Bay at Denver
Green Bay is last in the NFL in rushing offense (65.7 yards per game), and Denver is last in the league in rushing defense (176.2 yards per game)...Packers are 10-8 all-time following the bye week
Green Bay is 24-25-1 (.490) all-time on Monday night, and has lost five in a row on the second night of the week...Broncos are 24-29-1 (.454) on Monday, including two consecutive victories
Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS versus AFC foes. Denver has cashed nine of 12 after scoring 28 points or more. The Broncos are 5-15 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 1-9 ATS at home before playing back-to-back road games. They have zipped 'over' in 24 of 36 as favorites against NFC opposition and at a 20-5-1 clip as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or less.
GB is 5-1-1 ATS L7... GB is 4-0 ATS L4 vs. AFC West... GB is 5-0-1 ATS L6 road games... GB is 4-1 to the OVER L5... GB is 4-1 to the OVER L5 road games... DEN is 1-7 ATS L8... DEN is 1-9 ATS L10 home games... DEN is 4-12 ATS L16 vs. NFC North... DEN is 7-1 to the OVER L8 non-conference games... DEN is 14-5 to the OVER L19 when playing against a team with a winning record...
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Denver trap. The team has one good game, and suddenly they're 3-point favorites over a 5-1 squad? Give me a break.
Mike Shanahan is 2-9 ATS at home following a home win.
Brett Favre is 17-12 on Monday Night. Broncos are 14-9 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 23 instances.
Broncos are 3-14 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
Broncos are 5-9 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
Broncos are 1-9 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 10 instances.
Most teams will never play more than two consecutive games at home or on the road, but there are a few occasions during the course of a season where teams are asked to play back-to-back-to-back home or road games. These sets of triplet games are often interrupted by the bye week.
THIRD CONSECUTIVE HOME GAME
As a dog or favorite of -3.5 or less points vs. opponent off back to back wins, teams in their third consecutive home game are 32-17 ATS since 1980 (Buffalo qualified). If home team is .500 or better on the season, they improve to 18-5 ATS.
NFL teams are 8-2-1 ATS since 2001 in their third straight home game with the line at 4 or less points. (Buffalo qualified)
NFL teams are 4-1 ATS in their third straight home game vs. an opponent off a double digit SU loss.
NFL teams in their third consecutive home game are 33-14 ATS provided they enter off a straight up loss and own a won/loss percentage of .375 or better.
Home favorites of -4 points or more off a win and playing in their third consecutive home game vs. an opponent off back to back losses are 5-17 ATS.
THIRD CONSECUTIVE ROAD GAME
Teams playing in their third straight road game are 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS as dogs of +3 points when playing off a SU underdog win, including 1-10 SU and 1-10 ATS if the total of the game is lined at 37 points or less.
Any team that's playing its third consecutive road game vs. a division foe with a .500 (or better) record, and both teams are off a straight-up win, are 2-10 ATS.
Teams off a win and playing their third straight road game are 2-14 ATS, if their win percentage is between .666 and .900, and they're not favored by a field goal or more.
Teams playing their third straight road game and are off a SU/ATS win and the SU win was by 5 points or more vs. a winning foe are 2-19 SU and 3-18 ATS since 1994.
Teams on the road for the third consecutive game and off a SU and ATS win are 29-57 ATS including 12-29 ATS in this set coming off a division game. With those two parameters applied and the guest priced as an underdog of +3 or more last game, this trend crashes to 3-15 ATS and is currently on a 1-12 SU and 1-12 ATS run since 1990.
Teams with a winning record playing their third consecutive road game are 35-56 ATS. If the weary traveler is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .375 or better, this angle slides to 20-44 ATS.
Remaining teams that may qualify for any of the above trends/angles are;
10/29 DENVER hosts Green Bay
11/11 MIAMI hosts Buffalo
11/11 JACKSONVILLE @ Tennessee
11/11 TENNESSEE hosts Jacksonville
11/18 NY JETS hosts Pittsburgh
11/29 DALLAS hosts Green Bay
12/23 NEW ENGLAND hosts Miami12/23 SAN FRANCISCO hosts Tampa Bay
Denver qualifies for
As a dog or favorite of -3.5 or less points vs. opponent off back to back wins, teams in their third consecutive home game are 32-17 ATS since 1980 (Buffalo qualified). If home team is .500 or better on the season, they improve to 18-5 ATS.
NFL teams are 8-2-1 ATS since 2001 in their third straight home game with the line at 4 or less points. (Buffalo qualified)
NFL teams are 4-1 ATS in their third straight home game vs. an opponent off a double digit SU loss.
His selections!_______________
07-08 NCAAF: (5-3) - 63%
<>10/28 Colts -6.5 ($100)
<>10/28 Patriots -16 ($25)
<>10/28 Saints -2.5 ($25)
<>10/28 Buccaneers -3.5 ($25)
<>10/28 Steelers -3 ($50)
<>10/28 Vikings +1 ($50)
<>10/28 Browns -3 ($25)
<>10/28 Giants -9.5 ($25)
<>10/28 Bills +3 ($25)
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