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Hey guys, haven't posted my picks yet this year but enjoy the site very much. Thanks. Here's my week 7 Picks.
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
3* San Francisco +9.5 over N.Y. Giants
Looking at the stats of these teams I was shocked when I saw the line set at 9.5. The 49ers defense is very strong this season; they only allow 3.8 YPR (10th) and 13 YPPA (13th). They will face a Giants offense that is mediocre at best. They average 4.6 YPR (11th) but only 6.76 YPPA (20th). The Niners will be able to hold the Giants and will make it hard for them to cover this high line. Offensively, San Fran has been struggling especially in the air where they only average 5.26 YPPA. On the ground they are average gaining 3.91 YPR (17th). It looks as if T. Dilfer will start this week, but he is not much worse that Smith. The Giants defense is simply average as they allow 3.8 YPR (15th) and 6.92 YPPA (14th). So, the only difference statistically is the passing game (and this difference is very small). The situation factors strongly favor the 49ers. The Niners are coming off a bye and two consecutive home losses, thus will be in a very good bounce back situation! As opposed, the Giants are coming off a short week as they traveled to Atlanta Monday night and they are also coming off 4 consecutive wins straight up and ATS, the perfect let down spot. There are 20 trends favoring the Niners (the second most I have seen in the last 3 years). Every trend is greater than 65% and all are based on at least 90 games. One trend in particular plays on teams that have had trouble scoring as of late and is 69-26 ATS (73%) the last 12 seasons. Another plays on poor underdogs that have lost two consecutive home games (48-15 ATS the last 11 years). I love San Fran in this one, take them as a 3* play.
2* Miami +17 (-120) over New England
I know it is tough to bet against the Patriots, but you have to bet against good teams in the NFL to win consistently. Obviously, New England is a better team than the Dolphins but situational factors have led me to a play on the Phins. There are 6 trends favoring the Dolphins this week, including one of my favorites: play on home underdogs if they are 0-3 (or worse) straight up. This trend is 76% (41-16-2) over the last 11 season. This may not make much sense to you, but the NFL is what I like to call a "contrary" league because it is good to go against long streaks (such as the Dolphins losing 6 straight). The Dolphins have played New England tough in the past and Brady is just 7-5 against them (and 76-20 against all other opponents). The Patriots are also coming off a big win at Dallas last week and are in the perfect position for a let down. It's no surprise that New England is a statistically superior team (hence the 16.5 road favorite). In the air they are tops in the league averaging 8.68 YPPA. They are not that great on the ground though as they only average 4.2 YPR (17th), and this will only suffer more with the loss of backup RB S. Morris. This will leave 3rd down running back K. Faulk to carry the load. They will face a Dolphins defense that has been struggling as of late. They allow 4.45 YPR (25th) and 8.01 YPPA. The Phins running game is very strong averaging 4.75 YPR (8th) and will face a Pats rush D that is not too impressive (surprisingly) giving up 4 YPR (17th in NFL). This will allow Miami to rush the ball effectively and control the time of possession and will allow Miami to cover the big spread. In the air Miami is ranked 22nd (6.61 YPPA) but Cleo Lemon showed promise last week and I see this improving. Miami is -5 in turnover ratio compared to New England's +7 mark; this is an advantage to Miami because these streaks will not continue (turnovers are 75% independent). I see Miami keeping this one tight in a big let down situation for the Pats. If line is 16.5 I recommend buying the 1/2 point and bring the line up to 17- this will be the final line used.
You can see the rest of my picks at byeweekpicks.com
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
3* San Francisco +9.5 over N.Y. Giants
Looking at the stats of these teams I was shocked when I saw the line set at 9.5. The 49ers defense is very strong this season; they only allow 3.8 YPR (10th) and 13 YPPA (13th). They will face a Giants offense that is mediocre at best. They average 4.6 YPR (11th) but only 6.76 YPPA (20th). The Niners will be able to hold the Giants and will make it hard for them to cover this high line. Offensively, San Fran has been struggling especially in the air where they only average 5.26 YPPA. On the ground they are average gaining 3.91 YPR (17th). It looks as if T. Dilfer will start this week, but he is not much worse that Smith. The Giants defense is simply average as they allow 3.8 YPR (15th) and 6.92 YPPA (14th). So, the only difference statistically is the passing game (and this difference is very small). The situation factors strongly favor the 49ers. The Niners are coming off a bye and two consecutive home losses, thus will be in a very good bounce back situation! As opposed, the Giants are coming off a short week as they traveled to Atlanta Monday night and they are also coming off 4 consecutive wins straight up and ATS, the perfect let down spot. There are 20 trends favoring the Niners (the second most I have seen in the last 3 years). Every trend is greater than 65% and all are based on at least 90 games. One trend in particular plays on teams that have had trouble scoring as of late and is 69-26 ATS (73%) the last 12 seasons. Another plays on poor underdogs that have lost two consecutive home games (48-15 ATS the last 11 years). I love San Fran in this one, take them as a 3* play.
2* Miami +17 (-120) over New England
I know it is tough to bet against the Patriots, but you have to bet against good teams in the NFL to win consistently. Obviously, New England is a better team than the Dolphins but situational factors have led me to a play on the Phins. There are 6 trends favoring the Dolphins this week, including one of my favorites: play on home underdogs if they are 0-3 (or worse) straight up. This trend is 76% (41-16-2) over the last 11 season. This may not make much sense to you, but the NFL is what I like to call a "contrary" league because it is good to go against long streaks (such as the Dolphins losing 6 straight). The Dolphins have played New England tough in the past and Brady is just 7-5 against them (and 76-20 against all other opponents). The Patriots are also coming off a big win at Dallas last week and are in the perfect position for a let down. It's no surprise that New England is a statistically superior team (hence the 16.5 road favorite). In the air they are tops in the league averaging 8.68 YPPA. They are not that great on the ground though as they only average 4.2 YPR (17th), and this will only suffer more with the loss of backup RB S. Morris. This will leave 3rd down running back K. Faulk to carry the load. They will face a Dolphins defense that has been struggling as of late. They allow 4.45 YPR (25th) and 8.01 YPPA. The Phins running game is very strong averaging 4.75 YPR (8th) and will face a Pats rush D that is not too impressive (surprisingly) giving up 4 YPR (17th in NFL). This will allow Miami to rush the ball effectively and control the time of possession and will allow Miami to cover the big spread. In the air Miami is ranked 22nd (6.61 YPPA) but Cleo Lemon showed promise last week and I see this improving. Miami is -5 in turnover ratio compared to New England's +7 mark; this is an advantage to Miami because these streaks will not continue (turnovers are 75% independent). I see Miami keeping this one tight in a big let down situation for the Pats. If line is 16.5 I recommend buying the 1/2 point and bring the line up to 17- this will be the final line used.
You can see the rest of my picks at byeweekpicks.com
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