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Predicting Dr. Bobs Picks CFB
Another Spears Sighting!
Interesting! Not a big Dr. Bob Fan but apparently some are! These are fans blogging on him! Mind you - these are not Dr. Bobs picks as they will be out later today!
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Thought it might be fun for everyone to try and guesstimate Dr. Bob's selections for the week based on what we know about how he does things. Please add it your own...but please back them up with reasons connected to how Dr. Bob does things (yards per play, common systems). It would be fun to see if we could just use common sense to come close to reverse engineering the process just based on his past tendencies.
In schedule order:
*Rutgers (+) over South Florida...because he had Rutgers against Maryland and Cincinnati, and he just won't be dissuaded. Probably a system involved too.
*Utah (+) over TCU...he's had Utah as a strong opinion the last two weeks I think. They've done well with their #1 quarterback. Probably some YPP data with the starter, and fading TCU YPP defensive stats keyed some by Stanford last week.
*Buffalo (+) over Syracuse, because he's always on Buffalo...and Syracuse has horrible stats.
*Air Force (-) over Wyoming, because he had Air Force last week and they improved their stats in a win.
*Alabama over Tennessee, because he went against Tennessee against Georgia, and there will be some system about revenge or playing a second straight road game or something.
*Nebraska over Texas A&M, because he had Nebraska against Missouri two weeks ago and won going against Texas A&M last week.
*Texas Tech (+) over Missouri, because he won big with Texas Tech last week, and there will be some system relating to Missouri coming off big TV games with Nebraska and Oklahoma, or revenge, or Missouri's YPP defense vs. Tech's passing offense.
*USC (-) over Notre Dame, because he went big against Notre Dame when they played UCLA, and the ND offense still has a horrible YPP on offense.
*Oregon (-) over Washington, because he had Oregon over Cal (I think), and the Ducks padded their stats last week...also Washington's YPP is probably hideous over the last month. Probably a big math grading here.
*Michigan State (+) over Ohio State, because he had MSU over Northwestern---then the team bounced back after the loss to have huge stats against Indiana. Ohio State's very weak strength of schedule could factor in.
*Florida (-) over Kentucky, because there will be some system about a favorite with a bye playing a dog that just upset a ranked team, and Florida's YPP stats on offense will match up well against Kentucky's defense.
*Louisiana Tech (+) over Boise State, because whatever systems encouraged San Jose State in a similar home dog spot against Hawaii could apply to this one as well.
*Ohio over Toledo, because Toledo's got ugly stats and Ohio matches up well against ugly
*Texas (-) over Baylor because Texas has huge YPP numbers against lousy teams, Baylor has lousy YPP numbers against good teams, and Baylor doesn't know who their QB will be due to the starter will be due to injury to Szymanski
*Illinois (+) over Michigan because had Illinois last week and they're due to bounce back. Michigan had ugly stats until Purdue, and he'll dismiss that because it was Purdue.
That's about 15-16 or so, which isn't that far from his volume in terms of starred plays and strong opinions each week. Any games I missed? I'm not saying these are my picks, or that we should all argue about whether Kentucky or Florida makes sense in that matchup. I'm just looking to see if anyone has Bob-ish reasons for Bob-ish picks that we might anticipate when they go public tomorrow (later today).
Updated in schedule order:
*Rutgers (+) over South Florida
*Utah (+) over TCU
*Buffalo (+) over Syracuse
*Air Force (-) over Wyoming
*Alabama over Tennessee
*Nebraska over Texas A&M
*Texas Tech (+) over Missouri
*USC (-) over Notre Dame
*Oregon (-) over Washington
*Michigan State (+) over Ohio State
*Fresno State (-) over San Jose State
*Houston (-) over UAB
*Florida (-) over Kentucky
*Louisiana Tech (+) over Boise State
*Ohio over Toledo
*Texas (-) over Baylor
*Illinois (+) over Michigan
*Auburn (+) at LSU
*Arkansas State (-) over Middle Tennessee
Interesting! Not a big Dr. Bob Fan but apparently some are! These are fans blogging on him! Mind you - these are not Dr. Bobs picks as they will be out later today!
-------------------------------------------
Thought it might be fun for everyone to try and guesstimate Dr. Bob's selections for the week based on what we know about how he does things. Please add it your own...but please back them up with reasons connected to how Dr. Bob does things (yards per play, common systems). It would be fun to see if we could just use common sense to come close to reverse engineering the process just based on his past tendencies.
In schedule order:
*Rutgers (+) over South Florida...because he had Rutgers against Maryland and Cincinnati, and he just won't be dissuaded. Probably a system involved too.
*Utah (+) over TCU...he's had Utah as a strong opinion the last two weeks I think. They've done well with their #1 quarterback. Probably some YPP data with the starter, and fading TCU YPP defensive stats keyed some by Stanford last week.
*Buffalo (+) over Syracuse, because he's always on Buffalo...and Syracuse has horrible stats.
*Air Force (-) over Wyoming, because he had Air Force last week and they improved their stats in a win.
*Alabama over Tennessee, because he went against Tennessee against Georgia, and there will be some system about revenge or playing a second straight road game or something.
*Nebraska over Texas A&M, because he had Nebraska against Missouri two weeks ago and won going against Texas A&M last week.
*Texas Tech (+) over Missouri, because he won big with Texas Tech last week, and there will be some system relating to Missouri coming off big TV games with Nebraska and Oklahoma, or revenge, or Missouri's YPP defense vs. Tech's passing offense.
*USC (-) over Notre Dame, because he went big against Notre Dame when they played UCLA, and the ND offense still has a horrible YPP on offense.
*Oregon (-) over Washington, because he had Oregon over Cal (I think), and the Ducks padded their stats last week...also Washington's YPP is probably hideous over the last month. Probably a big math grading here.
*Michigan State (+) over Ohio State, because he had MSU over Northwestern---then the team bounced back after the loss to have huge stats against Indiana. Ohio State's very weak strength of schedule could factor in.
*Florida (-) over Kentucky, because there will be some system about a favorite with a bye playing a dog that just upset a ranked team, and Florida's YPP stats on offense will match up well against Kentucky's defense.
*Louisiana Tech (+) over Boise State, because whatever systems encouraged San Jose State in a similar home dog spot against Hawaii could apply to this one as well.
*Ohio over Toledo, because Toledo's got ugly stats and Ohio matches up well against ugly
*Texas (-) over Baylor because Texas has huge YPP numbers against lousy teams, Baylor has lousy YPP numbers against good teams, and Baylor doesn't know who their QB will be due to the starter will be due to injury to Szymanski
*Illinois (+) over Michigan because had Illinois last week and they're due to bounce back. Michigan had ugly stats until Purdue, and he'll dismiss that because it was Purdue.
That's about 15-16 or so, which isn't that far from his volume in terms of starred plays and strong opinions each week. Any games I missed? I'm not saying these are my picks, or that we should all argue about whether Kentucky or Florida makes sense in that matchup. I'm just looking to see if anyone has Bob-ish reasons for Bob-ish picks that we might anticipate when they go public tomorrow (later today).
Updated in schedule order:
*Rutgers (+) over South Florida
*Utah (+) over TCU
*Buffalo (+) over Syracuse
*Air Force (-) over Wyoming
*Alabama over Tennessee
*Nebraska over Texas A&M
*Texas Tech (+) over Missouri
*USC (-) over Notre Dame
*Oregon (-) over Washington
*Michigan State (+) over Ohio State
*Fresno State (-) over San Jose State
*Houston (-) over UAB
*Florida (-) over Kentucky
*Louisiana Tech (+) over Boise State
*Ohio over Toledo
*Texas (-) over Baylor
*Illinois (+) over Michigan
*Auburn (+) at LSU
*Arkansas State (-) over Middle Tennessee
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