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Saturday NCAA Football......
I'm passing on tonight's game with Marshall and Toledo, as well as baseball. These are my NCAA Football plays for Saturday.......
5 STAR: Purdue (PICK) OVER WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest is off to a great 2-0 start, finding a way to win their first two games, but actually being out gained in yardage by their opponents. Purdue took Bowling Green lightly last week, and lost at home. They won't be taking Wake Forest lightly for a few reasons. Wake is off to a 2-0 start and also last season Wake won at Purdue due to some questionable calls by the officials as well as three botched field goal attempts and a season high five turnovers. This is a big revenge game for the Boilermakers. I look for Purdue's passing attack to put up some big numbers against the Demon Deacon pass defense that is allowing over 362 yards per game. Wake will not be able to match up with Purdue's tandem of talented receiver, Taylor Stubblefield and John Standford. Standford is one of the best threats to go deep in country catching and he caught 4 passes for 74 yards and a score against Bowling Green last week. Stubblefield had a huge day with 16 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown against Bowling Green. There is huge value in this line with Wake coming in at 2-0 and Purdue losing last week to Bowling Green. The Deacons have won their first two games straight up as underdogs, but teams that are off of back to back straight up wins as an underdog and in the second game they were a dog of a touchdown or more, are only 6-18-1 against the spread in the next game if it is against a non-conference opponent. Wake Forest is also 0-6 against the spread after a home win over the last three seasons. Look for the Boilermakers to win this one!
3 STAR: Cincinnati (+7) OVER WEST VIRGINIA
I think the Bearcats have a good shot to pull off the upset here. Cincinati lost to West Virginia last season at home the week before they played Ohio State, so there is a good chance that they got caught looking ahead to the Buckeyes. The Bearcats have had an extra week off to get ready for this game, and they usually do very well when in this situation. The Bearcats are 7-0 against the spread the last seven times that they have played a revenge game and they have had an extra week off to prepare. These teams appear to be pretty evenly matched, as both of them destroyed East Carolina already this season, but I think Cincinnati has an advantage at quarterback with Gino Guidugli. He has always done well as a road underdog, posting a 5-0 record against the spread in those games. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Oregon (-12) OVER ARIZONA
I look for the Ducks to roll here. Arizona is horrible, and the
Quack Attack has owned this series going 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings. The is no home field advantage for the Wildcats, they are a dismal 3-14 as a home underdog over the last 5 seasons. Arizona is also only 2-15 against the spread in their last 17 home conference games. Oregon has gone 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 conference openers and they have also covered 5 straight games as a road favorite. The Ducks are also 14-4 against the spread after playing 2 straight non conference games since 1992, 6-0 against the spread in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 against the spread after leading their last 2 games by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Look for the Quack Attack to cash the ticket!
2 STAR: BAYLOR (-1.5) OVER Smu
These teams have not met since 1995, but this series had been dominated by Baylor in the past where they have won 8 of the last 9 meetings and I look for that to happen again here. Both of these teams are bad. SMU was destroyed by Texas Tech in their opener 58-10, while Baylor lost to a very good North Texas team last week 52-14. Baylor was competitive in their home opener, losing to UAB 19-24 as a 8.5 point underdog. SMU is 1-5 against the spread after a loss by 35 points or more since 1995 and 1-6 against the spread in road games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. You won't find Baylor in the role of a favorite very often, but the have made the most of those opportunities, covering 4 of their last 5 games in that role. This is a big game for these in state rivals, where the winner gets the upper hand in recruiting. Look for the Bears to get the job done here!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 5-5 (-1.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 4-0 (+8.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 4-1 (+2.9 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 14-7 (+8.9 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $890.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: Purdue (PICK) OVER WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest is off to a great 2-0 start, finding a way to win their first two games, but actually being out gained in yardage by their opponents. Purdue took Bowling Green lightly last week, and lost at home. They won't be taking Wake Forest lightly for a few reasons. Wake is off to a 2-0 start and also last season Wake won at Purdue due to some questionable calls by the officials as well as three botched field goal attempts and a season high five turnovers. This is a big revenge game for the Boilermakers. I look for Purdue's passing attack to put up some big numbers against the Demon Deacon pass defense that is allowing over 362 yards per game. Wake will not be able to match up with Purdue's tandem of talented receiver, Taylor Stubblefield and John Standford. Standford is one of the best threats to go deep in country catching and he caught 4 passes for 74 yards and a score against Bowling Green last week. Stubblefield had a huge day with 16 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown against Bowling Green. There is huge value in this line with Wake coming in at 2-0 and Purdue losing last week to Bowling Green. The Deacons have won their first two games straight up as underdogs, but teams that are off of back to back straight up wins as an underdog and in the second game they were a dog of a touchdown or more, are only 6-18-1 against the spread in the next game if it is against a non-conference opponent. Wake Forest is also 0-6 against the spread after a home win over the last three seasons. Look for the Boilermakers to win this one!
3 STAR: Cincinnati (+7) OVER WEST VIRGINIA
I think the Bearcats have a good shot to pull off the upset here. Cincinati lost to West Virginia last season at home the week before they played Ohio State, so there is a good chance that they got caught looking ahead to the Buckeyes. The Bearcats have had an extra week off to get ready for this game, and they usually do very well when in this situation. The Bearcats are 7-0 against the spread the last seven times that they have played a revenge game and they have had an extra week off to prepare. These teams appear to be pretty evenly matched, as both of them destroyed East Carolina already this season, but I think Cincinnati has an advantage at quarterback with Gino Guidugli. He has always done well as a road underdog, posting a 5-0 record against the spread in those games. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Oregon (-12) OVER ARIZONA
I look for the Ducks to roll here. Arizona is horrible, and the
Quack Attack has owned this series going 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings. The is no home field advantage for the Wildcats, they are a dismal 3-14 as a home underdog over the last 5 seasons. Arizona is also only 2-15 against the spread in their last 17 home conference games. Oregon has gone 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 conference openers and they have also covered 5 straight games as a road favorite. The Ducks are also 14-4 against the spread after playing 2 straight non conference games since 1992, 6-0 against the spread in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 against the spread after leading their last 2 games by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Look for the Quack Attack to cash the ticket!
2 STAR: BAYLOR (-1.5) OVER Smu
These teams have not met since 1995, but this series had been dominated by Baylor in the past where they have won 8 of the last 9 meetings and I look for that to happen again here. Both of these teams are bad. SMU was destroyed by Texas Tech in their opener 58-10, while Baylor lost to a very good North Texas team last week 52-14. Baylor was competitive in their home opener, losing to UAB 19-24 as a 8.5 point underdog. SMU is 1-5 against the spread after a loss by 35 points or more since 1995 and 1-6 against the spread in road games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. You won't find Baylor in the role of a favorite very often, but the have made the most of those opportunities, covering 4 of their last 5 games in that role. This is a big game for these in state rivals, where the winner gets the upper hand in recruiting. Look for the Bears to get the job done here!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 5-5 (-1.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 4-0 (+8.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 4-1 (+2.9 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 14-7 (+8.9 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $890.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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