The Superbowl Matchup is...

[dave T]

New England Patriots over Washington Redskins



Once each NFL Team has five games under their belt (after week six), my NFL Excel Program has correctly picked 5 of six SB contenders since I wrote the program:

2004: Eagles over Pats (Pats won, Eagles covered)
2005: Steelers over Seahawks (Pit won and covered)
2006: Chargers over Bears (Sdg went 14-2 but lost 1st round)

The Program factors in various statistics and strength of schedule. Here's the lowdown:

AFC Playoffs:

East: Pats
North: Steelers
South: Colts
West: Chargers
WC 1: Titans
WC 2: Jags

NFC Playoffs:

East: Redskins
North: Packers
South: Bucs
West: Cardinals
WC 1: Cowboys
WC 2: Giants

AFC Championship: Nwe over Pit
NFC Championship: Was over Dal
SB: Nwe over Was

Top Five AFC Nwe Pit Ind Ten Jax
Top Five NFC Was Dal Nyg Phi Tam

Top Five NFL Nwe Pit Ind Was Dal

Bottom Five NFL:

28.) Mia
29.) Buf
30.) Nor
31.) Jets
32.) Stl

dt

[Kaptain]

WOW---thanks Dave----kapt

[ctt8410]

Thanks Dave. Interesting to see the entire NFC East at the top of the conference rankings.

[frankb03]

While the Pats are obvious I can't see the Redskins advancing to the Superbowl. What have they done? They beat a very bad Dolphin team at home in OT. Blew a lead at home to a struggling Giants team.

We'll see come February.

[roccodean]

I love the Skins advancing to the bowl. If Campbell doesnt make mistakes and Portis runs well they can beat the Boys with that D.

[frankb03]

I love the Skins advancing to the bowl. If Campbell doesnt make mistakes and Portis runs well they can beat the Boys with that D.

You must be a Skins fan. Lot of IFs in your statement. IMO the Redskins D is overrated. The best offense they've faced was the Giants. The Giants moved the ball extremely well in the 2nd half scoring 3 TDs.

[dave T]

While the Pats are obvious I can't see the Redskins advancing to the Superbowl. What have they done? They beat a very bad Dolphin team at home in OT. Blew a lead at home to a struggling Giants team.

We'll see come February.

I know what you mean. It's not my opinion, it's just what the program spit out. I just punch the numbers in. Having said all that, I don't think the Redskins are a stretch. The NFC is obviously much weaker and there's not as much competition as the AFC.

The Raw Power Rating has the Cowboys advancing, but after factoring in Strength of Schedule, the Redskin's Power Rating was about a half-point higher. This exact same setting happened two years ago with my Excel. The Colts were the fave with a Raw Rating, but after SOS the Steelers had a slightly higher Power Rating. In that case it panned out with the Steelers winning it all.

Let's not forget that when the Playoffs roll around, it's about defense; and the Cowboys have been lit up twice already this season, by Eli Manning and Tom Brady. In contrast, the Redskins have given QB's fits.

ps. While it's true that Washington is only 3-2, the Chargers were only 4-2 last year when the Excel Program crowned them as the best team in the NFL. Though they choked in the playoffs, they finished with an NFL best 14-2 mark.

dt

[dave T]

Thanks Dave. Interesting to see the entire NFC East at the top of the conference rankings.

Yeah, which mandates that one of them will miss the playoffs. Last season 3 out of four of the NFC East teams went, taking both wildcards.

dt

[x2gold]

interesting stuff... gonna lay some wood then on was to win the superbowl...

[dave T]

interesting stuff... gonna lay some wood then on was to win the superbowl...

The Excel does not pick Wash to win the SB, only to go (win NFC).

[frankb03]

I know what you mean. It's not my opinion, it's just what the program spit out. I just punch the numbers in. Having said all that, I don't think the Redskins are a stretch. The NFC is obviously much weaker and there's not as much competition as the AFC.

Do you still think the Redskins are a viable SB contender? Their team and defense is extremely overrated.

I'm curious who the spreadsheets spits out after week 10.

[Eagle]

I cant believe anyone or any computer could spit out a team that lost 52-7 regardless of the circumstance, to go to the superbowl. WOW. Thanks for the info!




Eagle

[MB17]

I don't think Washington will make the super Bowl, but let me say that I don't think their D is overrated either. What their D is now is INJURED.

[birdog]

I don't think Washington will make the super Bowl, but let me say that I don't think their D is overrated either. What their D is now is INJURED.

Washington isnt even going to make the Plkayoffs let alone go to the Super Bowl as long as Gibbs is their Head Coach

[frankb03]

AFC Playoffs:

East: Pats
North: Steelers
South: Colts
West: Chargers
WC 1: Titans
WC 2: Jags

NFC Playoffs:

East: Redskins
North: Packers
South: Bucs
West: Cardinals
WC 1: Cowboys
WC 2: Giants

AFC Championship: Nwe over Pit
NFC Championship: Was over Dal
SB: Nwe over Was

Here's last seasons projections:

The AFC was dead on. All projected teams made the playoffs.

The NFC was pretty accurate. Redskins didn't win the division but they did make the playoffs. The only glaring mis-prediction was the Cards winning the NFC West.