Sunday Trends and Indexes 10/14

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, October 14

Good Luck on day #287 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Oakland at San Diego
The Chargers' 1-3 start with essentially the same team that went 14-2 the year before was mystifying and had folks in San Diego questioning whether Norv Turner was the right head coach. But San Diego showed what a dominating team it can still be as the Chargers won in Denver last week (41-3), handing the Broncos their worst home loss since 1966. LaDainian Tomlinson (140 total yards) and Michael Turner (147 rushing yards) showed signs of returning to last year's form. The special teams contributed a TD and the defense held Denver to just a field goal out of 11 drives. It was a complete team effort that should give the Chargers some momentum heading home for this week's contest against division rival Oakland. The Raiders are a pleasant surprise at 2-2 and have relied heavily on the No. 1 rushing offense (194.3 ypg) in the NFL. But their two wins have come against Cleveland and Miami, which are a combined 2-8. Playing against a San Diego team with some newfound confidence will be a tougher test, especially since the Raiders are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two teams. San Diego looks like a good pick to cover (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 16 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14

Game 207-208: Cincinnati at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.887; Kansas City 132.752
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 209-210: Houston at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.084; Jacksonville 136.473
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 7; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Under

Game 211-212: Miami at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 121.626; Cleveland 124.377
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 5; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+5); Over

Game 213-214: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.372; Chicago 129.245
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6); Over

Game 215-216: Philadelphia at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 126.978; NY Jets 127.645
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3); Under

Game 217-218: St. Louis at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 118.681; Baltimore 133.748
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 33
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-9); Under

Game 219-220: Tennessee at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 135.076; Tampa Bay 132.699
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Over

Game 221-222: Washington at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.704; Green Bay 134.370
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over

Game 223-224: Carolina at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 128.340; Arizona 128.094
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+4); Over

Game 225-226: New England at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: New England 147.154; Dallas 140.308
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under

Game 227-228: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 119.341; San Diego 135.761
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 16 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9 1/2); Over

Game 229-230: New Orleans at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 121.574; Seattle 132.266
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 11; 37
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2); Under


MONDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 233-234: NY Giants at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 129.109; Atlanta 129.572
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Over

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 14
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (1 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 3) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (3 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 1) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (0 - 5) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at CHICAGO (2 - 3) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (1 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 4) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (0 - 5) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (3 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 1) at GREEN BAY (4 - 1) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 2) - 10/14/2007, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (5 - 0) at DALLAS (4 - 0) - 10/14/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (2 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) - 10/14/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (0 - 4) at SEATTLE (3 - 2) - 10/14/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 16-41 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, October 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 4) - 10/15/2007, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 14th

Week 6 Byes: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Cincinnati at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 1-7 ATS in October
Kansas City: 17-34 ATS off BB games allowing 17 points or less

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 13-4 ATS off BB ATS losses
Jacksonville: 1-6 ATS off BB ATS wins

Miami at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Miami: 0-7 ATS off a road loss
Cleveland: 7-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-5 ATS off a home loss
Chicago: 6-1 Under off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

Philadelphia at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 14-5 ATS off a bye week
NY Jets: 14-6 Over in the first half of the season

St. Louis at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 19-34 ATS as a road underdog
Baltimore: 8-0 ATS off a road win by 3 points or less

Tennessee at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 13-3 ATS as an underdog
Tampa Bay: 8-2 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Washington at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Washington: 5-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points
Green Bay: 2-10 ATS off a division game

Carolina at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 11-2 Under off a division game
Arizona: 6-19 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games

New England at Dallas, 4:15 ET
New England: 8-2 ATS off BB wins by 10+ points
Dallas: 3-0 Under vs. New England

Oakland at San Diego, 4:15 ET
Oakland: 11-2 Under vs. division opponents
San Diego: 16-5 ATS off a win by 21+ points

New Orleans at Seattle, 8:15 ET NBC
New Orleans: 10-3 Under off BB losses
Seattle: 12-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points


Monday, October 15th

NY Giants at Atlanta, 8:30 ET ESPN
NY Giants: 10-3 ATS off BB home wins
Atlanta: 6-1 Over as a home underdog

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Sunday, October 14

Bengals (1-3) @ Chiefs (2-3) —Cincinnati lost last three games before their bye, allowing 36.3 pg, getting outrushed 511-278; they allowed 14 TDs on opponents’ last 33 drives, and ran out of healthy linebackers in their last game, so the bye came at good time. Palmer threw pair of picks in each of those losses. Chiefs are playing good defense, allowing 14.3 pg over last three games, but they’ve yet to win field position in game this season, so they miss Dante Hall’s returns.. KC is also just 17 for last 53 on third down, so they’re not moving chains on offense. Bengals lost both road games, 51-45/24-21. Four of five Chief games stayed under the total.

Texans (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-1) — Houston swept Jaguars LY, 27-7/ 13-10, holding them to two TDs, 12 3/outs on 22 drives. This yr, Del Rio’s team is playing good defense, allowing 10.3 pg; they’ve outrushed last three foes 455-139, but Texans are passing team, averaging 7.3+ yards/pass attempt in four of their five games— only Colts (5.3) held them under 7.3. Houston scored TD on its first drive last week, then ended game by kicking FGs on each of its last five drives, with three of the five coming on boots of 54+ yards (NFL record). Texans allowed 30,26 in its two losses, 21 or less in its three wins. Jags have yet to score more than 23 points.

Dolphins (0-5) @ Browns (2-3) —Cleo Lemon gets first NFL start under center for Miami, who lost all three of their road games by three points each, and also lost QB Green (concussion) last week. Cleveland is favored for first time this year, after covering three of last four as underdog; they won last two home games, 51-45/ 27-13, as Anderson has proved to be competent NFL QB (maybe better than he was in college). Fish ran ball for 141-137 yards in last two games, but until Lemon proves he is passing threat, they might have harder time running ball now. Four of five Cleveland games went over total, as did three of last four Miami tilts.

Vikings (1-3) @ Bears (2-3) — Griese is a definite upgrade at QB over Grossman; Chicago was +4 in turnovers last week, after -7 in margin in first four games; Bears hit some pass plays in second half last week (trailed 17-7 at half, won 27-20) to hand the Packers their first loss. Bears swept Minnesota LY, 19-16/23-13, as both teams had seven turnovers in the two games. Vikes scored one offensive TD in every game this season (four TD’s on 42 drives, with only two TD drives longer than 50 yards); they’ve run ball for 135 yds/game, which is pretty good. Vikings lost last three games before their bye, despite a defense allowing just 62.5 rushing yards per game.

Eagles (1-3) @ Jets (1-4) —Desperate time for these teams; Philly scored one TD on 33 drives in its three losses, but scored eight on 13 drives in their 56-21 win vs Lions- they need Westbrook back in lineup after bye week, and they need better pass blocking (gave up 12 sacks in their last game, on this same field). Jets played Giants last week, so they’ll be familiar with Eagle defense; Pennington will read defenses well, but can he stretch field? Only once in five games did Jets averaged six yards per pass attempt- they threw five picks in last two games, and lost last week, even though they had kick return and INT runback for TDs. Jets are allowing 33.7 pg in Giants Stadium. Philly is yet another road favorite that has yet to win on road.

Rams (0-5) @ Ravens (3-2) — St Louis is a mess; one of their few healthy offensive linemen had 50 yards in penalties last week, by himself, their DBs are all hurt, they have backups playing QB, RB and now Isaac Bruce is hurt, so no excuse for Raven defense not to dominate here. McNair should be highly motivated, since he lost Super Bowl to Rams, but Ravens scored just 13,9 points in last two games (one TD, 7 FGA, only three 3/outs on 18 drives in last two games)- they move ball well enough, but are awful in red zone (two TDs in last nine visits there). Under is 4-1 in St Louis games, 3-1 in last four Raven games. They played better last week with Frerotte at QB, but not well enough.

Titans (3-1) @ Buccaneers (3-2) —Two teams on up-tick here; Tennessee is 9-2 in last 11 games; their only ’07 loss is 22-20 to Colts, so would be hesitant to give them points, but Tampa won its two home games by 31-14/24-3 scores (albeit vs. two winless teams, Saints/Rams). Tennessee gave up only three points in second half vs Falcons last week, despite six of eight Atlanta drives starting in titan territory- That is solid defense. Tennessee gave up 10-14-13 points in its three wins, only let Indy score two offensive TDs on their 10 drives in that game. Field position is key for both teams; six of Bucs’ 10 offensive TDs, and five of Titans’ seven, have been on drives of 57 yards or less.

Redskins (3-1) @ Packers (4-1) — Green Bay gained 341 yards in first half against the Bears Sunday night, and led 17-7; in the second half, they gained total of 88 yards and lost 27-20; there was one five possession sequence where Pack ran total of 15 plays that gained 18 yards. Four punts and an INT, while the Bears rallied for a season-saving win. Pack had run ball for just 59.3 yg in their four wins- they had 121 Sunday, but did so little in second half, they lost. Redskins allowed 13-12-3 points in their wins, led 17-3 at half in their loss, but got outscored 21-0 in 2nd half of that game. Packers’ center is out (broken eye socket), that’s a critical position to use a sub. Last four Packer games went over total.

Panthers (3-2) @ Cardinals (3-2) — Arizona scored 55 points in winning last two games, has legit shot to make playoffs, but now they have to win game they’re expected to—underdog is 4-0-1 vs. spread in their games this season. Carr’s backup at QB are Matt Moore and Vinny Testaverde, signed during week, so hard to be enthused about Carolina team that was outgained by 98 yards in Superdome last week, but used dropped Saint passes to get road win. Arizona’s QB controversy ended with Leinart’s injury, so 36-yard Warner, two-time MVP, has keys to offense that scored 25.3 pg in last four games—both its losses came in final minute. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.

Patriots (5-0) @ Cowboys (5-0) —New England is 15-1 in last 16 games vs NFC; they’ve scored 38-38-38-34-34 points in their games, winning them all by at least 17 points- they’ve yet to allow more than 17 points in a game, but Dallas averages 24.4 pg, in second half alone. Cowboys survived six turnovers in wild win Monday night; they’re working on short week here, with a shaky QB, but they make when they have to (17 for their last 28 on 3rd down). Bengals (6.1) are the only team to average more than 5.1 yards/pass attempt vs Pats; Cowboys have yet to average less than 6.2 in any game, and averaged 13.4/9.8 in their two home wins (Giants/Rams). Cowboys have not allowed offensive TD in last two games, but did allow four return TDs.

Raiders (2-2) @ Chargers (2-3) —San Diego ties for 1st place with win here, against team they beat twice LY (27-0/21-14), forcing 12 Raider 3/outs on 22 drives. Bolts ended three-game skid last week by waxing Broncos 41-3, Denver’s worst home loss since 1966, they had 214 rushing yards, and 270 passing, so we’ll see if that balance continues here. Oakland scored 25.3 ppg in splitting first four games- all four of their games went over the total, as did last four San Diego tilts. Chargers better gear up to stop run; since Oakland, in last three games, gained 200-186-299 running ball. Chargers gained 15 yards per pass attempt last week; Raiders allowed 5.3/4.3 in last two games, so interesting matchup there.

Saints (0-4) @ Seahawks (3-2) — Are the Seahawks aggressive enough? In five games, they’ve committed only 17 penalties (120 yards), their opponents 37 (for 293 yards). Maybe they need to be a little more assertive. In last four games, they’ve run ball for just 81.3 ypg. Hapless Saints scored 10-13-14-13 points in winless start; read article by observer at the Carolina game, who said Saint receivers were horrible last week, dropping numerous balls on big plays that cost NO dearly. Saints are 20-39 on 3rd down their last three games, not like they’re not making plays, just not enough to win. Seattle got blanked by Steelers, who were playing without two of its best defenders- they’re 2-0 at home, winning 20-6/24-21. Four of five Seattle games stayed under the total.


Monday, October 15

Giants (3-2) @ Falcons (1-4) — Resurgent Giants outscored last three opponents 58-10 in second half; calls for Coughlin’s head are now history. Atlanta had five takeaways last week, started six second half drives in Titan territory, but scored just three points on those six drives, losing 20-13 on INT for TD which got QB Harrington yanked for Leftwich. Giants are on roll, winning last three games; after allowing 478-368 yards in the first two games, they’ve held last three foes to 260-190-277 yards, much better. Not sure if Falcons taking back $19.9M of Vick’s bonus money affects this team, but it can’t be good. Four of five Giant games went over the total.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

NFL
Total bias: over/under plays


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total bias: Week 6 over/under plays
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets – over 43

An extra week off is all Andy Reid needs to restore confidence in his club. The Eagles are 8-0 under Reid after their bye week and much of that has to do with an improved offensive game plan with an extra week’s worth of planning. Of course it won’t hurt to have running back Brian Westbrook and tight end L.J. Smith back on the field either. Each player is expected to suit up this weekend giving Donovan McNabb some much needed help.

There are whispers in New York that QB Chad Pennington may lose his starting job unless he comes up with a big game this week. I expect Pennington to come out firing in an attempt to prove the Jets are his team. Leon Washington is a game changer and should get more touches outside of his regular spot with special teams.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks – under 43

The soft hiss you hear coming from Louisiana is the wind officially leaving the Saints’ sails. New Orleans mustered just 13 points at home in a huge divisional contest. Saints head coach Sean Payton doesn’t look like the offensive guru from a year ago now that Deuce McAllister isn’t gaining the tough yards between the tackles. Drew Brees is forcing throws (one TD pass to nine interceptions) because of a lifeless ground game.

The Seahawks were confused and clueless against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were shut out and thoroughly spanked by a Pittsburgh team missing key parts. Seattle’s worst news came after the game when it learned fullback Mack Strong was retiring immediately because of a herniated disk. Tailback Shaun Alexander now no longer has the benefit of a solid lead block before hitting the hole.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons – over 44

Bobby Petrino proved in his first five games as an NFL head coach that he’s not afraid to call a pass-heavy game. He’s trying to win on the strength of Joey Harrington’s arm (yikes!) instead of Warrick Dunn’s feet.

The Giants have a balanced offense with a nice running-back tandem in Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. The return of a dominating ground game (186 rushing yards last weekend) should increase the amount of successful play action bombs to Plaxico Burress.


Last week’s record: 1-2

Season record: 9-6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Sunday, October 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Rams are 0-5 for the fourth time in franchise history and will match their worst start ever with another loss. Still, Baltimore head coach Brian Billick believes St. Louis is as tough of an opponent as the Ravens have played this season. "They're a desperate team right now," Billick said. "Obviously, when you're in this league and you're in that situation, it is a desperate time. And this is as dangerous a circumstance, as dangerous a team as we've played so far." SLIGHT EDGE: RAMS
The injury bug continues to hit St. Louis hard, as the team lost starting safties Jerome Carter to a broken foot and Todd Johnson with a neck sprain in last week's loss to Arizona. "You go, 'Why us?'" St. Louis TE Randy McMichael said. "It just seems like everything that can go wrong for us is going wrong for us." EDGE: RAVENS
The Ravens have won seven straight regular-season games at home but have failed to cover three of their last four there, including both of their two home games so far this season. SLIGHT EDGE: RAMS
The Rams are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog.
The Rams are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Ravens are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games as a home favorite.
The UNDER is 4-1 in St. Louis' last 5 games overall.


Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Bears continue to struggle with their running game, ranking just 27th in the league this year with 82.6 yards per game. However, they are still committed to Cedric Benson as the starting RB even though he is averaging just three yards per carry. The Viking are allowing an NFL-low 62 yards per game, so insiders expect Brian Griese to take more responsbility for the offense's production. EDGE: VIKINGS
Minnesota will have Tavaris Jackson back as the team's starting QB after he missed the last two games witha pulled groin. Jackson has attempted just four passes against a Bears defense that got back on track in a big way in Sunday night's win at Green Bay with two second-half interceptions of future Hall of Famer Brett Favre. BIG EDGE: BEARS
Chicago won both meetings last year and has won eight of the last 12 in the series.
The Vikings are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC North
The Vikings are 7-15-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.


Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Dolphins are one loss away from tying their worst start in team history set three years ago. They will try to avoid that loss with backup QB Cleo Lemon in the starting lineup after Trent Green suffered a severe concussion last week at Houston. Lemon has just one career start and will be facing a Cleveland secondary that has surrendered an NFL-high 15 touchdowns passes and the second-most passing yards. SLIGHT EDGE: DOLPHINS
Miami RB Ronnie Brown has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the last three games, totaling 360 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch. The Browns have given up the third-most rushing yards in the NFL this season. EDGE: DOLPHINS
The Browns could be without starting RB Jamal Lewis, who sprained his right foot after just one carry last week at New England. Meanwhile, Miami's run defense got a huge boost from the return of LB Zach Thomas froma concussion last week, as the Dolphins allowed a season-low 74 yards to Houston. EDGE: DOLPHINS
The Dolphins are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. AFC.
The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
The Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a losing team.
The OVER is 4-0-1 in the Cleveland's last 5 games overall.


Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Packers had their eight-game winning streak snapped last Sunday night against the Bears, but QB Brett Favre is a perfect 3-0 lifetime against the Redskins with the Packers outscoring them 95-23 in those games. EDGE: PACKERS
The Redskins are hoping to have WR Santana Moss back for this game after sitting out last week with a groin injury. That will be key since WR Antwaan Randle El could miss this game with a hamstring injury suffered last week after making four catches for 100 yards (check status on Pregame Wire). SLIGHT EDGE: PACKERS
The Redskins are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Redskins are 2-6-1 in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Packers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 4-0 in Green Bay's last 4 games overall.


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Jaguars were swept by Houston last year and will be looking to win four straight games for the first time in two years. They have circled this game and realize winning consistently is the key to a successful season. "It's been set up perfectly," Jacksonville RB Fred Taylor said. "We've had two huge road wins and Houston has been the reason we talked about the roller-coaster thing. They play us hard, they play us tough. Now it's time for us to do the same to them." EDGE: JAGUARS
At 3-2, the Texans have a winning record through five games for the first time in franchise history. However, injuries will again be the key on Sunday, as WRs Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones along with RB Ahman Green could all miss action once again (check status on Pregame Wire). SLIGHT EDGE: JAGUARS
The Texans are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Jags are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a winning road team.
The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games a favorite.
The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.


Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Cincinnati will be trying to avoid the team's first four-game losing streak in nearly five years. The Bengals are coming off their bye week, which allowed them to rest many of their injured players. "I feel horrible," Cincinnati CB Deltha O'Neal said. "It's just ugly for us right now. It is so depressing to me because we are a lot better than what we are playing. A lot better." SLIGHT EDGE: BENGALS
Kansas City QB Damon Huard is nursing a shoulder injury and could be benched in favor of Brodie Croyle. However, Chiefs head coach Herm Edwards believes Huard will play despite the injury (check status on Pregame Wire). "Right now, unless he has a setback, he's going to play," Edwards said of Huard. "And that's good for us." SLIGHT EDGE: BENGALS
The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
The Bengals are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.
The Chiefs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
The Chiefs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The UNDER is 8-3 in Cincinnati's last 11 games overall.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 after a bye week under head coach Andy Reid, and they are also 7-0 all-time against the Jets. BIG EDGE: EAGLES
The Jets have totaled just three sacks this season, the third-fewest amount in the NFL. That's good news for Philly QB Donovan McNabb, who was sacked 12 times by the Giants in a 16-3 loss two weeks ago. SLIGHT EDGE: EAGLES
Philadelphia is expected to have RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith and CB Lito Sheppard back in the lineup. That should give the Eagles a significant boost on both sides of the ball. EDGE: EAGLES
The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
The Jets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
The Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The OVER is 11-3-1 in New York's last 15 home games.


Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Tennessee has one of the top run defenses in the NFL, limiting opponents to just 72.3 yards per game. Since Tampa Bay is down to third-string RB Earnest Graham due to injuries to Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman, insiders expect QB Jeff Garcia to put a lot of pressure on himself to win this game. SLIGHT EDGE: TITANS
The Titans have won five straight road games and five in a row against the Bucs. In fact, they have won seven of the eight all-time meetings with Tampa. EDGE: TITANS
The Titans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
The Titans are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Bucs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games a favorite.
The Bucs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Tampa Bay's last 7 games overall.


Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

Kurt Warner is now the starting QB for the Cardinals, leaving some experts to question how effective he will be now that opponents can simply focus on him. Warner was part of a two-man rotation with Matt Leinart, who suffered a season-ending collarbone injury. That worked to Arizona's advantage because opponents didn't know which player would see more playing time. Now it could be a disadvantage with Warner the only real option under center. EDGE: PANTHERS
Carolina is also suffering through some QB issues with starter David Carr leaving last week's game with a back injury. Carr has been upgraded to probable, but the injury still prompted the Panthers to sign 43-year-old veteran Vinny Testaverde as insurance since former starter Jake Delhomme is out for the season with an elbow injury. EDGE: CARDINALS
The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a winning home team.
The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NFC.
The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 9-2 in Arizona's last 11 games overall.


New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

A potential Super Bowl preview, this game features the two best offensive teams in the league who are also both unbeaten at 5-0. This also marks just the fifth time in NFL history that two unbeaten teams with at least five wins have ever faced each other. Still, both teams are trying to downplay the blockbuster matchup. "Let's not make it more than what it is," New England's Ellis Hobbs said. "This isn't determining the playoffs. This is not, quote, unquote, the Super Bowl matchup or whatever. We're going into Week 6 and this is the next game." The Pats have been more dominant though this season, scoring at least 34 points in every game while winning by at least 17 each time. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS
New England has never won a game in Dallas, going 0-4. The Patriots will be looking to match their best start to a season with another victory, which would tie their 2004 Super Bowl-winning team. However, the validity of their start has been questioned by some, as their first five opponents have a combined record of 7-17 so far this season. EDGE: COWBOYS
Dallas is coming off a short week after pulling off an amazing 25-24 win at Buffalo on Monday night. The Cowboys trailed 24-13 and overcame six turnovers by QB Tony Romo by scoring twice in the last 20 seconds. Still, many insiders believe Romo will need to make a quick turnaround and forget that performance to succeed against one of the best defenses in the league. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS
The Patriots 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a winning home team.
The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
The OVER is 6-1 in New England's last 7 games as a favorite.


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

The Chargers have won seven straight meetings with Oakland, including four when San Diego head coach Norv Turner was leading the Raiders. Turner is still familiar with many of his former team's players, which should give them a significant advantage in hopes of making it eight in a row. BIG EDGE: CHARGERS
San Diego's offense is coming off its best performance of the season in a 41-3 road win at Denver last week. The Chargers totaled 484 yards, including 140 yards rushing and receiving by RB LaDainian Tomlinson and a career-high 147 rushing yards from his backup Michael Turner. LT has rushed for 1,455 yards with 12 touchdowns in 12 career games vs. Oakland. EDGE: CHARGERS
Daunte Culpepper is set to make his second start for the Raiders after a successful outing against his former team Miami two weeks ago before their bye. Culpepper is continuing to improve and used the off week to polish his skills, according to WR Jerry Porter. "He's coming along," Porter said. "He can play. He's getting a chance to get out there." SLIGHT EDGE: RAIDERS
The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.
The Raiders are 17-35-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points.
The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings.


New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (NBC | 8:15 ET)

New Orleans is off to its worst start since 1996, although the team played its best game last week against Carolina. The Saints outgained the Panthers 341-243 and held the ball over 10 minutes more but still lost by a field goal. Insiders believe head coach Sean Payton will make some lineup changes and do whatever it takes to jumpstart an offense that led the NFL in scoring last year and has not scored more than 14 points in any game this season. SLIGHT EDGE: SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks are hurting offensively, as leading receiver Deion Branch is out with a sprained foot, FB Mack Strong retired on Monday due to a herniated disk in his neck and RB Shaun Alexander is stil bothered by a sprained wrist that has forced him to play with a cast. Alexander is coming off his worst rushing performance in nearly five years, totaling only 25 yards on 11 carries at Pittsburgh last week. EDGE: SAINTS
The Saints are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Saints are 0-7 in their last 7 games overall.
The Seahawks are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. the NFC.
The Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 14
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 5) at HAMILTON (2 - 12) - 10/14/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (8 - 5 - 1) at CALGARY (6 - 7 - 1) - 10/14/2007, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Week 16 CFL games

Sunday, Oct. 14

Saskatchewan (9-5) @ Hamilton (2-12) -- TiCats are competing, covering last three weeks after being 3-8 vs spread previously; their last two losses were by total of 10 points- they split their last four home games, beating Winnipeg, Calgary. Riders won last two games, scored average of 33.3 ppg in last three; over is 6-1 in last seven games, including last four in row. Riders won four of their seven road games, with wins by 9,12,11,2 points.

Winnipeg (8-5-1) @ Calgary (6-7-1) -- Stampeders lost last three games, allowing average of 33 ppg- their last five home games all went over total. Bombers lost two of last three games; they are 4-1-1 if they score 24+ points, a figure Calgary allowed eight of last ten games. Stamps are 4-2-1 at home, losing only to the Lions (32-27), Riders (33-21 last week). Under is 6-2 in last eight Winnipeg games.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Hot Lines

CFL
Hot Lines


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Makin’ Canadian bacon: Week 16 CFL picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 14

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger Cats (+7 ½, 50 ½)
Sunday, Oct. 14, 1 p.m. ET

The Roughriders need only two wins in their final four games to clinch their first home-field playoff game since 1988. The Regina Leader-Post reports that a sellout playoff crowd could generate an extra half-million dollars for the Riders, so you can bet the front office will motivate the players if they can’t motivate themselves.

Hamilton’s season, on the other hand, officially became a lost cause when the Ticats’ loss in Montreal eliminated them from playoff contention. Unofficially, of course, the season was lost with Jesse Lumsden’s first injury weeks ago. The rest of the season becomes an open tryout for next year’s roster.

Saskatchewan’s offense has become consistent and effective even without receiver Matt Dominguez. The Riders have scored 34, 33 and 33 points over their last three games and been involved in three of the CFL’s four games to play over the total in Weeks 13 through 15.

Along those lines I’d call for another over, but Hamilton’s offense inspires no confidence. The Ticats have covered the spread three weeks in a row thanks to their defense, but that streak ends on Sunday.

Pick: Roughriders -7 ½


Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders (OTB)
Sunday, Oct. 14, 4 p.m. ET

Calgary’s offense suffered last week but now Akili Smith is gone and Henry Burris is back in the saddle after healing rapidly from his dislocated shoulder. Calgary hasn’t made an official announcement yet but Burris has already practiced with the No. 1 offense, so it looks like he’ll start on Sunday. Ben Sankey’s strong relief appearance last week against the Riders gives hope to Stamps fans that Burris now has a capable backup.

The Stampeders are also excited about their 4-3 alignment on defense, which they tried for the first time last Monday with mixed results. Head coach Tom Higgins says the Stamps will stay in the 4-3 for the rest of the season.

But neither the presence of Burris nor the new defensive look make the Stamps a great bet against a healthy Winnipeg squad anxious to overcome its recent struggles.

The Bombers need a fresh start away from Winnipeg after a pair of disappointing home games. They squeaked past the Ticats as 10 ½-point favorites in Week 14 and lost to BC last week in a game they could have won. This week the Bombers get a little closer to clinching the East Division title, no matter who starts for the Stamps.

Pick: Bombers


Last week's record: 3-1

Year to date: 27-29

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14

Game 231-232: Nevada at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 83.797; Boise State 107.669
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 24; 64
Vegas Line: Boise State by 26 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+26 1/2); Over

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 14
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEVADA (2 - 3) at BOISE ST (4 - 1) - 10/14/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 14th

Nevada at Boise State, 8:00 ET ESPN
Nevada: 8-1 ATS off an ATS loss
Boise State: 6-1 Under off a win by 35+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

College Football - Tips & Trends

NCAAF


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 14

Nevada at Boise State (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Boise State has made the most of appearances on ESPN each of the previous two weeks, outscoring New Mexico State and Southern Miss by a 96-16 margin. Meanwhile, Nevada is coming off a disappointing 49-41 home loss to Fresno State as a 3-point favorite. BIG EDGE: BOISE STATE
The Broncos have won the last six meetings with Nevada both SU & ATS.
Nevada is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 conference games.
Boise State is 37-15-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 14
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (93 - 74) at COLORADO (95 - 73) - 8:35 PM
LIVAN HERNANDEZ (R) vs. JOSH FOGG (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 12-8 (+5.9 Units) against ARIZONA this season
11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.1 Units)

LIVAN HERNANDEZ vs. COLORADO since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 7-8 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of 1.470.
His team's record is 9-15 (-9.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-10. (+0.6 units)

JOSH FOGG vs. ARIZONA since 1997
FOGG is 6-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.337.
His team's record is 9-3 (+10.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-8. (-4.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------