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Kaptains "NCAA FB" for Friday
this was written by some one else, but it saves me from repeating exactly how I see it......
Hawaii -17.0
Fri Oct 12 '07 8:00p
Ignore any talk of Hawaii QB Colt Brennan not playing tonight He is a Heisman candidate and he has the national exposure on Friday night he needs to get some people's attention. He does have some ankle and leg issues so his accuracy and ability to throw deep might be affected. This is an offense where the system is the real star, not the guy throwing the ball over the field. When I saw Brennan play at UNLV this year, he did some things very well but there was inconsistency in his passing.
A huge difference in this game is between the two special teams units. San Jose is my WORST rated special teams unit in the nation with a field goal kicker who is 2 for 9 and terrible return teams. They face the Warriors who are in my top seven special teams units with one of the best kickoff return squads in the country.
Regarding the total, Hawaii is the king of OVER's in conference games going 22-5-1 their past 28. However, San Jose is 17-5-1 to the UNDER in conference games including a 10-0 UNDER streak in home conference games. There is an 80% chance of showers tonight, especially in early evening. The greater factor, the wind, is going to only be 5-10 mph. The Spartans running attack has been crippled with the loss of their two best backs to injuries. In their last game, San Jose ran from a no-back formation on 48 plays. However, they did have 48 rushing attempts for 134 yards against Idaho, more than twice their season average. Adding to an OVER bias is the poor special teams play of San Jose. I'm staying off of the total.
Hawaii is going to do everything it can to make Brennan look worthy of the Heisman. Couple that with the fact they want to get into a BCS bowl game this year and this is the best time to influence people they should be there. Even the WAC Commissioner has stated that 'this is a game Hawaii needs to take advantage of if they plan to make a run at the BCS'. Hawaii should be motivated to play tonight and light up the scoreboard. If Brennan goes down, they do have a second-stringer who has seen some action this year with good success.
All of this being said, I believe Hawaii is overrated. The toughest teams they have played are UNLV, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech. They have played Northern Colorado AND Charleston Southern. At least SJ State has played Arizona State, Kansas State, and Stanford. But, I don't want any part of SJ State who is starting three true freshmen on their offensive line, missing their two best running backs, and have terrible special teams.
The final factor, the huge spread, historically hasn't been a factor. Teams in a conference game on the road favored by 14 to 20.5 points over the past five years have covered at a 52.1% rate. Perception is not always reality.
Take Hawaii and lay the points!
#105 Hawaii -17 -110................................5*
other things to look at........
Hawaii Off avg 49 ppg.......451 ypg.....
SJ State.........35.............247..........
Hawaii D gives up 22 ppg.....SD St 28.....
Couple that with the fact that Hawaii has to start promoting Brennan as Heisman, as he has been a little Gimp and less productive as of late, and also couple in the fact that Hawaii has an open date next week, which would allow Brennan more time to heal, if he rehurts injury, Jones will have him go all out, and get the yardage he wants.....IMO
PS----JONES will run up a score on ya....
Hawaii -17.0
Fri Oct 12 '07 8:00p
Ignore any talk of Hawaii QB Colt Brennan not playing tonight He is a Heisman candidate and he has the national exposure on Friday night he needs to get some people's attention. He does have some ankle and leg issues so his accuracy and ability to throw deep might be affected. This is an offense where the system is the real star, not the guy throwing the ball over the field. When I saw Brennan play at UNLV this year, he did some things very well but there was inconsistency in his passing.
A huge difference in this game is between the two special teams units. San Jose is my WORST rated special teams unit in the nation with a field goal kicker who is 2 for 9 and terrible return teams. They face the Warriors who are in my top seven special teams units with one of the best kickoff return squads in the country.
Regarding the total, Hawaii is the king of OVER's in conference games going 22-5-1 their past 28. However, San Jose is 17-5-1 to the UNDER in conference games including a 10-0 UNDER streak in home conference games. There is an 80% chance of showers tonight, especially in early evening. The greater factor, the wind, is going to only be 5-10 mph. The Spartans running attack has been crippled with the loss of their two best backs to injuries. In their last game, San Jose ran from a no-back formation on 48 plays. However, they did have 48 rushing attempts for 134 yards against Idaho, more than twice their season average. Adding to an OVER bias is the poor special teams play of San Jose. I'm staying off of the total.
Hawaii is going to do everything it can to make Brennan look worthy of the Heisman. Couple that with the fact they want to get into a BCS bowl game this year and this is the best time to influence people they should be there. Even the WAC Commissioner has stated that 'this is a game Hawaii needs to take advantage of if they plan to make a run at the BCS'. Hawaii should be motivated to play tonight and light up the scoreboard. If Brennan goes down, they do have a second-stringer who has seen some action this year with good success.
All of this being said, I believe Hawaii is overrated. The toughest teams they have played are UNLV, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech. They have played Northern Colorado AND Charleston Southern. At least SJ State has played Arizona State, Kansas State, and Stanford. But, I don't want any part of SJ State who is starting three true freshmen on their offensive line, missing their two best running backs, and have terrible special teams.
The final factor, the huge spread, historically hasn't been a factor. Teams in a conference game on the road favored by 14 to 20.5 points over the past five years have covered at a 52.1% rate. Perception is not always reality.
Take Hawaii and lay the points!
#105 Hawaii -17 -110................................5*
other things to look at........
Hawaii Off avg 49 ppg.......451 ypg.....
SJ State.........35.............247..........
Hawaii D gives up 22 ppg.....SD St 28.....
Couple that with the fact that Hawaii has to start promoting Brennan as Heisman, as he has been a little Gimp and less productive as of late, and also couple in the fact that Hawaii has an open date next week, which would allow Brennan more time to heal, if he rehurts injury, Jones will have him go all out, and get the yardage he wants.....IMO
PS----JONES will run up a score on ya....
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