As most of us know turnovers more than any other stat dictates the outcome of football games. However, fumbles lost and interceptions thrown are not equal. Interceptions thrown are more critical than a lost fumble.
In games where a team had no fumbles lost and no interceptions thrown vs an opponent that had 1 lost fumble and zero interceptions:
SU 110-56 66%
ATS 90-64 58%
Conversely, in games where a team had no turnovers vs a team with no lost fumbles and one thrown interception:
SU 185-62 75%
ATS 173-70 71%
In games when a team has less fumbles than their opponent and neither team threw any interceptions:
SU 241-91 72%
ATS 214-100 68%
Once again, teams that throw less interceptions than their opponent and neither team had any lost fumbles:
SU 510-129 80%
ATS 475-152 76%
While watching a game if you team throws less INTs than their opponent they have an 80% chance of winning the game.
When handicapping NFL games give more weight for INTs than fumbles lost.
In games where a team had no fumbles lost and no interceptions thrown vs an opponent that had 1 lost fumble and zero interceptions:
SU 110-56 66%
ATS 90-64 58%
Conversely, in games where a team had no turnovers vs a team with no lost fumbles and one thrown interception:
SU 185-62 75%
ATS 173-70 71%
In games when a team has less fumbles than their opponent and neither team threw any interceptions:
SU 241-91 72%
ATS 214-100 68%
Once again, teams that throw less interceptions than their opponent and neither team had any lost fumbles:
SU 510-129 80%
ATS 475-152 76%
While watching a game if you team throws less INTs than their opponent they have an 80% chance of winning the game.
When handicapping NFL games give more weight for INTs than fumbles lost.
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