NFL Excel Program Projections after Week 5

[dave T]

*Official NFL Playoffs and Superbowl predictions come after each team has 5 games under their belt (after week 6). For the fun of it, here's what the projections look like from week to week based on Power Ratings from my Excel Program.

Superbowl:

After Week 01: Pit over Car
After Week 02: Pit over Was
After Week 03: Nwe over Was
After Week 04: Nwe over Dal
After Week 05: Nwe over Dal


AFC Championship:

After Week 01: Pit over Ind
After Week 02: Pit over Nwe
After Week 03: Nwe over Pit
After Week 04: Nwe over Pit
After Week 05: Nwe over Pit


NFC Championship:

After Week 01: Car over Was
After Week 02: Was over Car
After Week 03: Was over Dal
After Week 04: Dal over Phi
After Week 05: Dal over Was


AFC Playoffs: (east, north, south, west, wc1, wc2)

After Week 01: Nwe, Pit, Ind, Den, Hou, Ten or Sdg
After Week 02: Nwe, Pit, Hou, Den, Ind, Ten
After Week 03: Nwe, Pit, Hou, Den, Ind, Ten
After Week 04: Nwe, Pit, Ind, Den, Ten, Hou
After Week 05: Nwe, Pit, Ind, Den, Ten, Jax


NFC Playoffs: (east, north, south, west, wc1, wc2)

After Week 01: Was, Min, Car, Sea, Det, Dal
After Week 02: Was, Min, Car, Sea, Dal, Det
After Week 03: Was, Grb, Car, Sea, Dal, Phi
After Week 04: Dal, Grb, Tam, Sea, Phi, Was
After Week 05: Dal, Grb, Tam, Sea, Was, Phi


Top 5 NFL Teams:

After Week 01: Pit, Car, Ind, Hou, Nwe
After Week 02: Pit, Nwe, Hou, Was, Ind
After Week 03: Nwe, Pit, Hou, Ind, Was
After Week 04: Nwe, Pit, Ind, Dal, Ten
After Week 05: Nwe, Pit, Ind, Dal, Ten


Top 5 AFC Teams:

After Week 01: Pit, Ind, Hou, Nwe, Den
After Week 02: Pit, Nwe, Hou, Ind, Den
After Week 03: Nwe, Pit, Hou, Ind, Ten
After Week 04: Nwe, Pit, Ind, Ten, Hou
After Week 05: Nwe, Pit, Ind, Ten, Jax


Top 5 NFC Teams:

After Week 01: Car, Was, Min, Sea, Det
After Week 02: Was, Car, Min, Dal, Sea
After Week 03: Was, Dal, Phi, Sea, Car
After Week 04: Dal, Phi, Was, Sea, Tam
After Week 05: Dal, Was, Tam, Sea, Phi

dt

[frankb03]

At this junction of the season a Pats/Boys SB is not a surprise.

[bryce]

Nice work dave T

[thaikarate1]

Why is Den still in it. I dont' think they will make the playoff.

I see Ten and Jax will be dropped off pretty soon from top 5 list.

Where is My Chargers place Dave?

[dave T]

Why is Den still in it. I dont' think they will make the playoff.

I see Ten and Jax will be dropped off pretty soon from top 5 list.

Where is My Chargers place Dave?

The list is based on a Power Rating, which is based on a myriad of current statistics and not based on a team's potential (see Saints right???).

You'll notice the 1-3 Eagles are in the hunt numerically speaking, but, hey, that's what the numbers point to when factoring in Strength of Schedule.

Excel has been pretty solid. Each of the last two seasons there are teams that are left out in the early projections and excel is usually right. The *official projections (next week) usually get 10 out of the 12 projections right.

You might say, anyone can do that after Week six. But, no, after Week six last year people believed that the Panthers were still the pick in the NFC South. Excel picked the Saints and you could still get back more than 3-1 on "any team other than the Panthers" to win NFC South. You had to lay wood with Car...excel had them missing playoffs altogether.

ps.- after Week Six last year the Chargers were 4-2...Excel had them as the best team in the NFL. They finished 14-2.

dt

dt