Monday Trends and Indexes 10/08

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Trends and Indexes
Monday, October 8

Good Luck on day #281 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

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Six-pack for Monday

-- Stanford's win as 41-point dog was greatest pointspread upset in the history of handicapping, breaking the record set couple of weeks ago by Syracuse.

-- USC, UCLA were both favored Saturday, by combined total of 63 points, and both got beat straight up. Weird.

-- Justin Leonard denied Jesper Parnevik his first win since 2001, when he birdied the third playoff hole, to win Texas Open for the third time. It was Leonard's first win since '05.

-- 49 people were hospitalized at the Chicago Marathon; a 35-year old guy from Michigan died, due to extreme heat and humidity. Running 26 miles in 88 degree weather, with high humidity, just isn't a wise thing to do.

-- The Cubs aren't cursed; they just aren't as good as the teams they play against.

-- Watching the Angels go down like heartless dogs, they appear to be a logical team to overpay for Alex Rodriguez.

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[pm530]

Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........

13) Houston is 3-2, and in last place in the AFC South.
Oakland is 2-2, and sits atop the AFC West.

12) Why every American should have access to NFL Sunday Ticket: at 1:00 Sunday, the only game televised here was the Jet-Giant game. Just freakin' great.

11) The Rams continue to pay for being disloyal to two-time MVP Kurt Warner, as the ex-Ram came home and handed his old team their fifth loss in row, 34-31.

10) Rams have lost in gold pants, white pants, blue pants, so it ain't the pants, fellas, its the players wearing the pants.

9) John Kasay, an original Panther and one of the best kickers ever, booted a 52-yard FG as time expired to hands the Saints their fourth straight loss, 16-13. David Carr was knocked out briefly, but returned to lead the winning drive.

8) Trent Green suffered another concussion, and you figure this might be it for him, which is sad. Cleo Lemon is now the Dolphins' starting QB, so we'll see how he does.

7) Joey Harrington threw an INT for TD with scored tied at 13 and Falcons driving in Tennessee territory with 1:10 left to go in third quarter-- those were deciding points. Byron Leftwich finished game for Falcons, who had ball inside Titans' 5-yard line in final 2:00, but couldn't tie the game.

6) Baltimore outgained the 49ers 198-38 in first half, but led by just 6-0, in a pathetically conservative game. Patriots have the Niners' 1st-round pick next April, much to the chagrin of the commissioner's office, I am sure, since they figure to lose lot of games with Trent Dilfer calling signals.

5) Chargers outgained Denver 484-296 and averaged 15 yards per pass attempt, as they totally squashed the Broncos, who at 2-3, with three losses in row, aren't looking too hot.

4) Mike Shanahan went out of his way to give QB job to the rookie Cutler, getting rid of successful vet Plummer, and now that decision is looking cloudy-- remember, Cutler never got to a bowl game at Vanderbilt, he isn't used to winning, so it is no guarantee he is the savior for the Broncos.

3) I hope Jon Gruden didn't get up at 3am every day this week to prepare the game plan Bucs used Sunday at Indy; it would have been a terrible waste of sleep deprivation. Bucs had no shot in this game.

2) Packers had 341 total yards in first half vs Bears Sunday, a pretty good amount for a full game, then fizzled out in second half. NFL games turn on such a narrow margin, which is why they remain so interesting and such a puzzle to handicappers.

1) So if the Chargers beat Oakland next week, everything will once again be norvelous in San Diego, as Bolts will be in tie for first place in AFC West. Long season, especially in those divisions that are evenly matched.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

MONDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 433-434: Dallas at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.736; Buffalo 127.934
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+10); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Monday, October 8
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DALLAS (4 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 3) - 10/8/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Monday, October 8

Dallas at Buffalo, 8:30 ET ESPN
Dallas: 2-12 ATS off a win by 28+ points
Buffalo: 24-7 ATS off a win by 3 points or less

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National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Monday, October 8

Cowboys (4-0) @ Bills (1-3) — Dallas off to red-hot start, winning by 10-17-24-28 points; Pokes have outscored opponents 107-40 in second half, and already have NFL-high 18 TD’s (six FGA)- they have big game in six days, hosting Patriots, but national TV spotlight should keep their attention here. Bills got first win over Jets last week; their two home games were decided by total of four points- they’ve allowed 14.5 pg at home, 32 on road. Bills need better defense on 3rd down; they’ve allowed 50% of 3rd plays to convert, bad news vs. mobile Romo and Dallas offense that is 24-49 (49%) on 3rd down. Given success Dallas has had in second half, Bills need to keep their defense off field as much as possible.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Monday, October 8

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Tips and Trends
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Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

The Cowboys are looking for their first 5-0 start in 24 years, and the last time they were 4-0 they went on to win the Super Bowl. The team's offense is also on NFL record pace, 22 points ahead of the 1998 Minnesota Vikings through the first four games. BIG EDGE: COWBOYS
This will be just the second career start for Buffalo QB Trent Edwards, who did a solid job last week in a 17-13 win over the Jets. Edwards completed 22-of-28 passes for 234 yards and a key touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. "All I know is that he is good," Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron said. "He's smart, and he was really accurate when he had to be. He did a real nice job." Still, there will be a lot of pressure on Edwards in what is Buffalo's first home game on Monday Night Football since 1994. SLIGHT EDGE: COWBOYS
The Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
The Bills are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The UNDER is 8-3 in Buffalo's last 11 games on turf.
The OVER is 9-2-2 in Dallas' last 13 road games.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Preview

NFL

Monday, October 8

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NFL Preview
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Monday Night Football Preview

The Dallas Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills are both coming off Week 4 victories, but you can't say their seasons are going in the same direction as they meet on Monday night.

The Cowboys ran roughshod over the St. Louis Rams last time out, going up 14-7 by halftime and cruising from there to a 35-7 victory. Tony Romo completed 21-of-33 pass attempts for 339 yards in that contest, with three touchdown strikes and one interception. Patrick Crayton was good for 184 yards off seven receptions and scored twice, and Jason Witten had the other TD catch. Terrell Owens picked up just 33 yards.

On the ground, Julius Jones rushed for 52 yards off 13 carries and scored a touchdown in the second quarter, while Marion Barber had 50 yards. Romo also rushed for a score.

That win improved Dallas to 4-0 on the season, putting them in control of the NFC East division ahead of the Washington Redskins (2-1) and the New York Giants (2-2). The Cowboys have managed to score 151 points in four games, while allowing 72 points.

The Bills put up 10 points in the fourth quarter on Sunday and then held on for a 17-14 win over the division-rival New York Jets. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards, playing in place on the injured J.P. Losman, went an efficient 22-of-28 for 234 yards passing with one touchdown strike (to Michael Gaines in the fourth quarter) and just one interception.

Gaines had only four catches for 20 yards in that contest, while Lee Evans had six catches for 72 yards to break out of his early-season doldrums. Marshawn Lynch led the way on the ground for Buffalo, rushing for 79 yards and a score off of his 23 carries.

For Buffalo, though, Sunday's result marked only their first win of the season - although it did move them into a second-place tie in the AFC East division with the Jets at 1-3, well behind the 4-0 New England Patriots but a game ahead of the winless Miami Dolphins. Edwards will again lead the way for Buffalo on Monday night, as Losman's knee sprain is expected to keep him off the field for the next couple of weeks at least.

The oddsmakers aren't too keen on the Bills' chances of increasing their winning streak to two games - the Cowboys are pegged as 10-point road favorites, with a total of 44.5.

Buffalo and Dallas haven't met in a regular-season game since November 9, 2003, when the Cowboys slipped past the Bills for a 10-6 home victory. Dallas was listed as a 4-point favorite on their own field in that contest, and they only managed to PUSH that spread. UNDER bettors got paid on that day, as the combined score ended up well below the posted total of 36.5 points. Buffalo last beat Dallas back in September 1996.

Here are the official injury reports for both the Cowboys and the Bills for Monday night:

Dallas Injuries
Courtney Brown CB Out Week 5 (biceps)
Terry Glenn WR Out Week 5 (knee)
Anthony Henry CB Out Week 5 (ankle)
Oliver Hoyte RB Doubtful Week 5 (neck)
Keith Davis S Questionable Week 5 (shoulder)
Greg Ellis LB Probable Week 5 (Achilles)
Terence Newman CB Probable Week 5 (foot)

Buffalo Injuries
Ryan Denney DE Out Week 5 (foot)
Kevin Harrison LB Out Week 5 (knee)
Jim Leonhard S Out Week 5 (calf)
J.P. Losman QB Out Week 5 (knee)
Peerless Price WR Out Week 5 (neck)
Coy Wire LB Out Week 5 (knee)
Ashton Youboty CB Out Week 5 (ankle)
Keith Ellison LB Questionable Week 5 (ankle)

The Bills have a Week 6 bye, while the 'Boys will play host to the New England Patriots.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet


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Monday, October 8
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HAMILTON (2 - 11) at MONTREAL (6 - 7) - 10/8/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SASKATCHEWAN (8 - 5) at CALGARY (6 - 6 - 1) - 10/8/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 70-44 ATS (+21.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Monday, October 8

Week 15 CFL games

Hamilton (2-11) @ Montreal (6-7) -- Alouettes are 2-0 this year vs TiCats, winning 29-20 in Week 3 at Hamilton (-6), then 27-9 on this field six weeks later (-4), but Als lost last three games in row overall, allowing 32 ppg. Hamilton is 0-7 on road, losing by 28-4-18-2-18-13-2 points. Under is 5-2 in last seven Hamilton games. Montreal won four of their last five home games.

Saskatchewan (8-5) @ Calgary (6-6-1) -- Roughriders waxed the Stampeders 49-8 in Week 2 in Regina (-1) but lost rematch three weeks ago at McMahon, 44-22 (-3). Since that win, Stampeders lost at woeful Hamilton, then got whacked 42-9 at BC; they are 4-1-1 at home, losing only to Lions 42-37. Riders snapped skid at three last week, beating Montreal; they're 3-3 on road, losing last two away games at Winnipeg (34-15), Calgary (44-22).

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Hot Lines

CFL
Hot Lines


Monday, October 8

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Makin’ Canadian bacon: Week 15 CFL picks
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Hamilton Tiger Cats at Montreal Alouettes (-9, 49 ½)
Monday, Oct. 8, 1 p.m. ET

Hamilton +9 would look like a bargain if we go by the teams’ performances from the last two weeks. The Tiger Cats beat Calgary in Week 13 as 7 ½-point home underdogs, then easily covered the 10 ½-point spread in Winnipeg last week. The Alouettes, on the other hand, have dropped three games (and paydays) in a row. But there’s more to consider than their recent results on the field. It’s hard to determine, for example, which East Division non-power has the more poisoned atmosphere these days.

New quarterback Casey Printers hasn’t won over his Ticats teammates and head coach Charlie Taaffe openly mused to reporters this week that he can’t decide whether running back Jesse Lumsden is having bad luck with injuries or is simply fragile.

In Montreal, linebacker Timothy Strickland suggests that Jim Popp took on too much responsibility as the Als’ head coach and GM, suggesting that the team no longer has a winning attitude.

Montreal was shafted by CFL schedule-makers this week, as the Als suit up in Toronto on Friday after this holiday Monday game. They’re in danger of choking away what was once a sure playoff spot if they don’t right their ship. Based on their current form, however, I can’t give away more than a touchdown with them, even at home.

Pick: Tiger Cats +9


Saskatchewan Roughriders at Calgary Stampeders (+7 ½, 53)
Monday, Oct. 8, 4 p.m. ET

Calgary smoked the Riders 44-22 as recently as Week 12 but a couple of changes have since gone down in Cowtown. Most importantly is the injury to Henry Burris.

Edmonton bettors haven’t seen much of Ricky Ray’s backups, so they can always rely on optimism. Calgary bettors, however, have seen Burris’ backups in action and it hasn’t been pretty. Akili Smith? Barrick Nealy? It doesn’t really matter, especially with Eddie Davis finally back in the Riders’ secondary. Saskatchewan shut down Montreal’s ground game last week and can do the same on Monday by loading the defensive front and daring Calgary to pass.

This week also represents a unique defensive challenge for the Stamps. Head coach Tom Higgins and GM Jim Barker canned defensive coordinator Denny Creehan shortly after last week’s 42-9 loss to BC.

Creehan’s sudden departure reminds the players how easily they can be dropped if they don’t get their act together. This is a dangerous call considering their results this year, but I’m counting on the Stampeders to tighten up on ‘D’ and make this a reasonably tight game.

Pick: Under 53


Last week: 4-0
Year to date: 24-28

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[pm530]

Hockey – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


Monday, October 8

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WASHINGTON (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/8/2007, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 6-2 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 6-2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.7 Units)

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NEW JERSEY (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at OTTAWA (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/8/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 83-83 ATS (-68.3 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 6-7 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 7-6-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.5 Units)

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EDMONTON (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at DETROIT (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) - 10/8/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 50-14 ATS (+23.3 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 9-5 (+9.9 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 9-5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.1 Units)

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Monday, October 8

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Tips and Trends
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Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees (TBS | 7:37 PM ET)

Cleveland's Paul Byrd has not fared well against the Yankees during his career, going 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA. Byrd surrendered seven runs in just two innings the last time he faced them back on August 11th with one walk and one strikeout. EDGE: YANKEES
Chien-Ming Wang will go to the mound on four days rest for the Yankees after getting pounded for eight runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings to take the loss at Cleveland in Game 1. Wang was much better at home though this season, as his ERA was more than two runs lower than on the road at 2.75 to go along with 10-4 mark. SLIGHT EDGE: YANKEES
The Yankees are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings but will be eliminated from the postseason with another loss.
The OVER is 9-3 in the last 11 meetings.
The OVER is 8-2 in New York's last 10 home games.

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Baseball – Recent Trends

MLB


Monday, October 8

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Recent Trends
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Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees

Cleveland:
Under is 6-2 in CLE last 8 overall.
Under is 6-2 in CLE last 8 on Grass.
CLE are 28-10 in their last 38 overall.

NY Yankees:
Over is 8-2 in NYY last 10 home games.
Over is 8-3 in NYY last 11 games following a win.
NYY are 41-16 in their last 57 home games.

Head to Head:
CLE are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings.
CLE are 5-21 in the last 26 meetings in New York.

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