Sunday Trends and Indexes 10/07

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, October 7

Good Luck on day #280 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Atlanta at Tennessee
Tennessee finished last season by winning six of its last seven and has carried that momentum into this year. The Titans (2-1) are off to their best start since 2003 -- the last time they made the playoffs. They have the second best rushing offense in the NFL (173.7 ypg) and QB Vince Young continues to improve. Young ran his record to 10-6 as a starter by throwing for two TDs in a Monday night win at New Orleans (31-14) in Tennessee's last game. Jeff Fisher's defense was the story of that game, though, as the Titans forced five turnovers, including three Keith Bulluck interceptions. Atlanta did show some offense in a 26-16 win over Houston at home last weekend. But on the road, Bobby Petrino's club has been outscored 37-10. And the Falcons have struggled against Tennessee in recent years, dropping the last four contests. Warrick Dunn has been held to just 79 yards on 38 attempts in his last three games against the Titans. Tennessee comes into this game fresh off a bye week and looks like a good pick to cover (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Titans favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 407-408: Carolina at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 126.097; New Orleans 124.435
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 409-410: Jacksonville at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 132.775; Kansas City 134.147
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2 1/2); Over

Game 411-412: Detroit at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 127.880; Washington 129.012
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+4 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Atlanta at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 123.326; Tennessee 138.243
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 15; 45
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 8; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-8); Over

Game 415-416: Miami at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 119.979; Houston 135.555
Dunkel Line: Houston by 15 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Seattle at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.003; Pittsburgh 137.410
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Cleveland at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 125.691; New England 144.766
Dunkel Line: New England by 19; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-14 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.094; St. Louis 125.312
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: NY Jets at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 125.463; NY Giants 126.334
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 35
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Under

Game 425-426: Tampa Bay at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.248; Indianapolis 144.907
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 13 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 10; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-10); Under

Game 427-428: San Diego at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 132.096; Denver 130.200
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1); Over

Game 429-430: Baltimore at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.778; San Francisco 125.731
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 32
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Under

Game 431-432: Chicago at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 126.245; Green Bay 136.795
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 433-434: Dallas at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.736; Buffalo 127.934
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+10); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, October 7
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CAROLINA (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 3) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 68-40 ATS (+24.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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DETROIT (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (2 - 1) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 40-63 ATS (-29.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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ATLANTA (1 - 3) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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MIAMI (0 - 4) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SEATTLE (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 43-67 ATS (-30.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-40 ATS (-28.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 112-82 ATS (+21.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at ST LOUIS (0 - 4) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NY JETS (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/7/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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TAMPA BAY (3 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 0) - 10/7/2007, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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SAN DIEGO (1 - 3) at DENVER (2 - 2) - 10/7/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/7/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CHICAGO (1 - 3) at GREEN BAY (4 - 0) - 10/7/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, October 8
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DALLAS (4 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 3) - 10/8/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 7th

Week 5 Byes: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 30-15 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
New Orleans: 17-36 ATS at home vs. division opponents

Jacksonville at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 12-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3
Kansas City: 8-1 Over in October

Detroit at Washington, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Washington: 21-9 Under vs. NFC North opponents

Atlanta at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 9-1 Under in road games
Tennessee: 27-13 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Miami at Houston, 1:00 ET
Miami: 0-7 ATS off BB games allowing 30+ points
Houston: 22-10 ATS off BB losses

Seattle at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 14-33 ATS off a division win
Pittsburgh: 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Cleveland at New England, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 7-1 Under in October
New England: 10-3 ATS off BB wins by 14+ points

Arizona at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 9-2 Over off an ATS win
St. Louis: 1-9 ATS at home off an ATS loss

NY Jets at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 0-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less
NY Giants: 13-4 ATS at home off a win as a division underdog

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis, 4:05 ET
Tampa Bay: 8-1 Under away off an Under
Indianapolis: 1-7 ATS off BB wins

San Diego at Denver, 4:15 ET
San Diego: 9-22 ATS off a division loss by 10+ points
Denver: 28-11 Over off 3+ Overs

Baltimore at San Francisco, 4:15 ET
Baltimore: 18-4 ATS off a loss as a favorite
San Francisco: 34-19 Over after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:15 ET NBC
Chicago: 13-2 Over vs. conference opponents
Green Bay: 2-9 ATS off a division game


Monday, October 8th

Dallas at Buffalo, 8:30 ET ESPN
Dallas: 2-12 ATS off a win by 28+ points
Buffalo: 24-7 ATS off a win by 3 points or less

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Sunday, October 7

Panthers (2-2) @ Saints (0-3) —NO off to horrible start, allowing 103 points in losses by 31,28,17 points; they’ve covered just one of last seven as favorite coming off a bye and are already -8 in turnovers, with ten giveaways in only three games, as well as no sacks yet and a -21 IP ratio (47-26). Loss of McAllister makes Saints more of a passing team. Carolina hurting with backup QB Carr; he averaged 2.7 yds/pass attempt in dismal 20-7 loss to Bucs last week (they averaged 3.6/4.4/2.7 in last three games). Road team is 4-0 in Panther games this year with Carolina scoring 27 points each in wins at St Louis, Atlanta (combined 1-7 record).

Jaguars (2-1) @ Chiefs (2-2) — Herm’s Chiefs are playing solid defense, allowing four TDs on 44 drives, zero points on 14 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line (only NFL team at 0.00); they have 11 sacks, 10 takeaways and lead league allowing just 27.8% of third downs to be converted- they outscored last three foes 37-3 in second half. Jax lost five of last seven post-bye games, even though they were favored in six of those games. Jaguars allowed just 21 points in winning last two games before the bye, including win at Denver where they outrushed Broncos 186-47 (Broncos ran just 41 plays the whole game).

Lions (3-1) @ Redskins (2-1) — Erratic Lions either implode (they trailed 42-21 at half in Philly) or explode (they scored 34 points in fourth quarter last week). Detroit is 0-20 in DC, but Lions have 13 takeaways in four games, but Kitna making enough plays to make up for 21 sacks and 12 giveaways, typical Martz Madness stats. Martz first made his name as QB coach here with Skins, where he coached Trent Green. Redskins won nine of their last 11 post-bye games, winning last two years, by FG each; they’ve allowed 5.2/ 4.3/5.4 ypa in their three games. Lions lost eight of last ten pre-bye games, allowing 30,38 pts last two years.

Falcons (1-3) @ Titans (2-1) —Atlanta scored 10 points in two road losses, then scored 46 pts at home last two weeks; they’re hopeful Harrington (54-73/546 passing last two weeks) getting knack of offense, but Falcons are 29th in red zone offense (3.58), even when they’ve moved ball well. Falcons are only NFL club that has yet to start a drive in opponents’ territory. Road team won all three Titan games, with Tennessee losing 22-20 at home to Colts—they scored 28+ points in four of last five post-bye games. Titans are only NFL team that has yet to score point on drive that started 80+ yards from opponents’ end zone (7 drives).

Dolphins (0-4) @ Texans (2-2) — Miami playing better on road, losing both games by FG, but they’ve allowed 37-31-35 points in last three games (12 TDs on 28 drives) and are last in NFL on third down, both on offense (26.3%) and defense (55.6%), which results in lot of short fields for opponents (already yielded four TD drives of 40 yards or less). Fish have just three takeaways, five sacks in four games. Houston fading with Johnson/Green hurt, but they also have zero takeaways in last two games, after having seven in their two wins. Texans averaged 7.4+ ypa in three of four games. Last three games for both sides all went over the total.

Seahawks (3-1) @ Steelers (3-1) — Pittsburgh been dominant at home (26-3/27-16), but were held to 77 rushing yards last week, after averaging 198.3 ypg in three wins; they had 11 penalties last week, after total of 11 in the three wins. Steelers have 14 sacks, eight takeaways, but Seattle has 13/10; Hawks have allowed just four TDs on 42 drives, while forcing 42 3/outs. Seattle is fumbled snap away from 4-0 start; they have seven takeaways in last two games, are 5-7 as road dog last 3+ years. Steelers lost four of last five pre-bye games, with only win by four points. Both these teams lost at Arizona for only loss. NFC West road dogs are 2-5 vs. spread out of their division.

Browns (2-2) @ Patriots (4-0) — Old friends from Parcells’ Giant staff meet here; only two teams in NFL have more TDs than spunky Browns (14). New England playing with chip on its shoulder, winning games by 24-24-31-21 points, scoring 37 pg- they’ve had ten drives start 80+ yards from goal line, and scored seven TD’s, with five of those drives 90+ yards; the entire NFL has 62 TD drives of 80+ yds this season. Cleveland scored 51-24-27 pts in last three games; only blocked FG off skin infield at Oakland is keeping them from 3-1 record. Patriots playing on short week after thrashing Bengals. Both sides have had three of four games go over total.

Cardinals (2-2) @ Rams (0-4) — Redbirds been juggling QB’s successfully, using Leinart in running spots, former Ram (and still a St Louis icon) Warner in passing spots. Must-win game for 2-2 Arizona team, with two last-minute losses, vs. dysfunctional Ram squad starting Frerotte at QB for first time, with RB Jackson and five guys on OL all out injured. Arizona lost both its road games in last minute, but Rams been outscored 72-9 in second half of games this season, and are probably worst team in NFL, although they do get CB Brown (suspension) back here. Will be interesting to see if Leinart spouting off about juggling QB’s will change anything for Cardinals.

Jets (1-3) @ Giants (2-2) — Both teams at home here, although it is GIANTS Stadium; Big Blue defense awakened in last two weeks, allowing just 20 points, keeping both foes under 50% passing and sacking McNabb 12 times last week. Manning is moving chains (Giants 48.1% on 3rd down) but fading in red zone (3.86, 26th) partly because they’re struggling to run ball (94-96-83 yards last three games). Jets allowed 33 pg in pair of Swamp games; their lack of sacks, takeaways (three of each) has hurt their field position (Jets, Saints are only teams not to start drive in enemy territory). These teams are 2nd, 3rd in NFL in penalty yard ratio (Giants +129, Jets +89).

Bucs (3-1) @ Colts (4-0) — Indy has 16 plays of 20+ yards this year, will be tested by Buc defense that has allowed five. The last time these teams met was on Monday night in ’03 when Bucs led by 19 at home with 5:00 left but somehow lost in OT, as Dungy beat his former team on his birthday. Bucs come in here on three-game win streak, where they’ve allowed 14-3-7 points. Obviously, both teams run same defense—Bucs allowed only one TD in last two games, and that came with 0:23 left in Carolina last week, in garbage time of 20-7 win. Bucs had 182-189 rushing yards last two games, but are without star RB Williams now (knee). Oft-travelled Garcia enjoying another good start to season.

Chargers (1-3) @ Broncos (2-2) — Two floundering sides meet here; Denver allowed 200-186-226 rushing yards in their last three games losing last two by 9,18 pts. San Diego imploded at home vs Chiefs last week, outscored 24-0 in second half; in their last three games, they’ve allowed 38-31-30 points and gave up 7+ ypa in each loss. Denver has seven TD’s, 13 FGA’s, while allowing 11 TD’s, four FGA, so that’s problem. Tomlinson had 100+ rushing yards at half last week, then had 20 in second half, so they need to keep feeding him ball. Denver’s two wins are by combined total of four points; they’ve been -13/-18 in field position last two games, making it even harder on young QB Cutler.

Ravens (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2) — Injury to Alex Smith leaves former Raven Dilfer facing former mates, week after Niners had 22 net passing yards in ugly 23-3 home loss to Seattle. Baltimore is 0-2 on road, giving up 27 points in both games (at Bengals, Browns); they have eight giveaways in two losses, one in two wins, both of which came at home. 49ers been outscored 40-13 in first half of last three games; they’ve converted just 27.3% of 3rd down plays (31st) and went 3/out on 23 of 49 drives (46.9%, 32nd). As usual, offense is an issue for Ravens, who scored five TDs with 13 FGA’s, second-worst ratio in NFL- they also are last in league with 267 penalty yards. This could be an ugly game.

Bears (1-3) @ Packers (4-0) — Desperate times for NFC champion Bears, who are searching for a QB; they’ve turned ball over 14 times (-5, 30th) averaged 2.8/3.7/2.8 ypa in last three games, and thrown 32 more IPs than their opponents (32nd). They gave up 34 points in 4th quarter last week, after giving up 31 points in second half vs Dallas the week before. Meanwhile, its all good for Packer squad that is 4-0 despite not running ball for more than 83 yards in any game this season—they scored 29 pg, averaged 7.2+ ypa in last three weeks, and have won battle of field position in all four games. In last two games, Bears threw 91 passes, been sacked nine times and run ball only 45 times, as it continues to be dreadful fall for Turner family.

Monday, October 8

Cowboys (4-0) @ Bills (1-3) — Dallas off to red-hot start, winning by 10-17-24-28 points; Pokes have outscored opponents 107-40 in second half, and already have NFL-high 18 TD’s (six FGA)- they have big game in six days, hosting Patriots, but national TV spotlight should keep their attention here. Bills got first win over Jets last week; their two home games were decided by total of four points- they’ve allowed 14.5 pg at home, 32 on road. Bills need better defense on 3rd down; they’ve allowed 50% of 3rd plays to convert, bad news vs. mobile Romo and Dallas offense that is 24-49 (49%) on 3rd down. Given success Dallas has had in second half, Bills need to keep their defense off field as much as possible.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Sunday, October 7

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Tips and Trends
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B]Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans [/B](CBS | 1 PM ET)

This is the first time in team history that Houston has been favored two games in a row. However, team insiders are still concerned about the mounting injuries to what they classify as a “very fragile” offensive unit. During the game against the Colts two weeks ago, RB Ahman Green had to leave the game with a knee injury, and backup Ron Dayne was inactive because of bruised ribs. Green is expected to start though since Green has been ruled out. Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee) and WR Jacoby Jones (shoulder) are both expected to miss this game as well, leaving the Texans again paper thin at that position. Look for Andre Davis to once again be the go-to guy, as he led the team in receiving last week with 117 yards.
EDGE: DOLPHINS
What happened to the “great” Miami defense? So far this season, the Dolphins have given up 16, 37, 31 and 35 in their four losses. Even more concerning is their rushing defense that that surrendered 191 yards to Washington, 166 to Dallas, 141 to the Jets, and then an eye-popping 299 to the Raiders last Sunday. To make matters worse, Miami may have lost two defensive starters as both Channing Crowder and Vonnie Holliday left last week's game with ankle injuries. EDGE: TEXANS


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Jacksonville has had two weeks to prepare for this contest following a two-game winning streak. However, team insiders are unsure why the Jaguars' success at moving the football has not translated into more points on the scoreboard. QB David Garrard has completed 64 percent of his passes and has a 103.8 passer rating (7th-best in the NFL) yet the team ranks just 21st in the NFL with 320 yards per game. Insiders believe the Jags worked very hard during their off week on offensive execution. EDGE: JAGUARS
League insiders are not expecting a lot of points in this contest given Kansas City head coach Herm Edwards' conservative offensive ideology, which matches up against a Jacksonville defense that is ranked No. 4 in the NFL, allowing a meager 287 yards per game. EDGE: UNDER
The underdog has covered 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games.
Jacksonville is 3-7 SU & ATS in its last 10 road contests.
KC is 14-3 SU & 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 home games.


Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (CBS | 1 PM ET)

League insiders are very concerned with a Cleveland defensive unit that is allowing a whopping 427 yards per game (second worst in the NFL), and the run defense is giving up 160 per game (3rd worst). Even more alarming is that they now must face New England's top-ranked offense, which is averaging 37 points per game. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
The Browns are 22-31-1 ATS their last 54 as an underdog.
The Patriots are on a 9-1 SU & ATS run going back to last season.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (FOX | 1 PM ET)

This is a good situational setting for the Saints, who have had two weeks to prepare for this conference game following a bye week while Carolina got pushed around by Tampa Bay in a 20-7 home loss. EDGE: SAINTS
Team insiders remain very concerned with Carolina backup QB David Carr’s performance last weekend filling in for Jake Delhomme due to an elbow injury. Carr was miserable, completing less than 40 percent of his passes with an average less than 3 yards per pass attempt. As a whole, the Carolina offense only managed 236 total yards and did not cross midfield until the final drive of the game. EDGE: SAINTS
Team insiders are also becoming concerned over the Carolina run stopping unit that gave up 119 yards to Houston and then followed that up by surrendering 189 to Tampa last Sunday. Although New Orleans will be without the services of RB Deuce McAllister for the rest of the season, Reggie Bush is more then capable of putting up some big numbers against the Panthers. EDGE: SAINTS
Carolina is 18-5-2 ATS its last 25 as an underdog.
New Orleans is 5-12 ATS its last 17 at home and 4-12 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite.


New York Jets at New York Giants (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Giants defense has been dominant over the last couple games, recording 12 sacks in last Sunday's 16-3 win over Philadelphia to tie an NFL record and set a team mark. Six of them came from defensive end Osi Umenyiora, and they have now allowed just three points in their last six quarters of play. EDGE: GIANTS
The Jets have allowed just one sack in each of the last two games and will get a big test against the Giants defensive line. They surrendered nine sacks in the first two games and also hope to get RB Thomas Jones going, as he has only 254 yards this season and has yet to find the end zone. EDGE: GIANTS
The Giants have won the last three meetings between the teams and are 6-4 all-time in the series.
The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 home games for the Giants.


Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Despite last weekend's shocking loss, league insiders are still impressed with a Steelers team that is outscoring their opponents by a 28-10 average. EDGE: STEELERS
Interesting matchup with Seattle RB Shaun Alexander going against a Pittsburgh defense that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 29 consecutive games! Frank Gore, the NFC's leading rusher last season, was held to just 39 yards on 14 carries two weeks ago. EDGE: STEELERS
The Steelers are 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
The UNDER is 8-1 i Seattle's last 9 games.


Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders remain impressed with the play of the Arizona defensive line, which is making an effort to stack the line and take away the run more this season. Arizona has been getting to the quarterback as they sacked Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger four times last week, which could present problems for a Rams offensive line that has been decimated with injuries. EDGE: CARDINALS
Team insiders are very concerned about the St. Louis run defense which has been torched this season. They gave up 186 rushing yards and 4.9 yards a carry in the opener, 89 yards against the 49ers, and 182 rush yards against Tampa Bay and must now try to stop Arizona's Edgerrin James. EDGE: CARDINALS
Arizona team insiders are again confused about who will play quarterback this week for Arizona. New head coach Ken Whisenhunt benched Matt Leinart in favor of Kurt Warner the last two weeks and may use a quarterback by committee the rest of the way. EDGE: RAMS
St. Louis QB Marc Bulger played last week despite two broken ribs. It was announced earlier this week that backup Gus Frerotte will replace Bulger against the Cardinals. The 36-year-old Frerotte started 15 games in 2005 for Miami and hopes to be a sparkplug for a Rams offense that has only three touchdowns in four games. EDGE: RAMS
Arizona is 6-0 ATS its last 6 road games.


Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Tough situational spot for the Falcons coming off their first win of the season and now hitting the road to play on an off surface (soft grass) against a red-hot Tennessee squad that is rested, off their bye week. Tennessee has been lethal following their bye week over the past 5 season as their offense put up 30, 31, 17, 28 and 28 points. EDGE: TITANS
Team insiders believe that the Tennessee defensive line will be a nightmare for Atlanta QB Joey Harrington, who has gotten little protection thus far this season and even less help from the running game. EDGE: TITANS
The Atlanta rush defense has been nothing short of terrible this season. They allowed 139 rush yards, (5.1 yards per carry) to Minnesota; 113 rushing to the Jaguars, 175 to Carolina and 87 to Houston (who was without 4 key offensive starters). Considering that Tennessee’s bread and butter is the run, the Falcons defense could be in for another long day. EDGE: TITANS
Tennessee is 9-3 ATS its last 12 home games.


Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Washington has had two weeks to prepare for this contest coming off a bye week while Detroit is due for a letdown after beating hated division rival Chicago. EDGE: REDSKINS
League insiders believe the Redskins hold a fundamental matchup advantage when their offense is on the field against the Detroit defense. Washington’s passing attack averages an impressive 7.1 yards per pass and should improve on that against one of the NFL’s worst secondaries, allowing a whopping 6.9 yards per pass. EDGE: REDSKINS
Redskins WR Santana Moss (groin) is not expected to play Sunday. Newly signed veteran WR Keenan McCardell and Reche Caldwell now look to be Jason Campbell’s main targetsthis week in what is not a deep receiving corps. EDGE: LIONS
The Lions have lost all 20 trips to Washington since 1939.
Detroit is 3-14 SU & 7-10 ATS its last 17 road games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

Team insiders believe the loss of both RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams and tackle Luke Petitgout will be a significant blow to the 3-1 Buccaneers as both players will undergo season-ending knee surgery this week and are lost for the season. Tampa will use a combination of Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham to replace Williams. EDGE: COLTS
Indianapolis players are quietly dropping like flies. Team insiders are unsure as to the status of eight-time Pro Bowl WR Marvin Harrison, who left in the second quarter of last Sunday’s game with a bruised left knee and did not return. In addition, LB Rob Morris was carted off the field just before halftime with a sprained left knee. Former Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders (ankle) and RB Joseph Addai (shoulder and back) also couldn't finish last week's game. Of all of the injuries, the loss of Addai would be the most significant according to one team insider as the Colts don’t have an experienced backup with Dominic Rhodes signing with Oakland in the offseason. EDGE: BUCS
Tampa Bay's defense has impressed this season, holding the Saints, Rams and Panthers to a combined 24 points and 824 yards during the last three weeks (average of 8.0 points and 274 points). EDGE: BUCS
Indianapolis is 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS its last 12 home games.


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

Despite opening the season at 1-3, one team insider believes San Diego is not “out of it yet” as two of the team's three losses have come against unbeaten Green Bay and New England. EDGE: CHARGERS
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson finally had a big game last Sunday against a very stout Kansas City run stopping unit, gaining 132 yards with an average of 6.2 yards per carry. Prior to that performance, Tomlinson had just 130 yards in three games (43.3 per game) and was gaining only 2.2 yards per carry. League insiders believe Tomlinson will have another big game this week against a Denver defense that is one of the worst in the league against the run, surrendering 186 yards to the Jaguars in a 23-14 home loss and then 226 yards to the Colts last week. BIG EDGE: CHARGERS
The Chargers are 16-10 SU & 16-8-2 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Denver is only 1-12 ATS its last 13 home games.


Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (CBS | 4:15 ET)

As reported last week, San Francisco lost LB Manny Lawson for the season with a torn ACL. To make matters even worse, San Francisco lost starting QB Alex Smith last week with a separated right shoulder, which is likely going to sideline him through the team's bye week in mid-October. EDGE: RAVENS
49ers veteran QB Trent Dilfer will start this week for Smith. Dilfer took over last week, but did not look good, completing just 12-for-33 passes with no touchdowns. However, Dilfer knows the Ravens defense as he was a part of their Super Bowl run back in 2000, and he still holds a grudge for getting let go by the team. SLIGHT EDGE: RAVENS
The 49ers are 11-7 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
The Ravens are 6-15 SU & ATS in their last 21 road games.


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (NBC | 8:15 ET)

The Packers are off to their first 4-0 start since 1998 and no longer have the pressure of getting future Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre his record-breaking touchdown pass. Favre broke Dan Marino's career mark for TD passes last week at Minnesota along with his record for most pass attempts, and he can now focus solely on leading them to the NFC North title. EDGE: PACKERS
Team insiders believe the Bears must get their ground game going if they have any hopes of turning their season around. Chicago ranks 27th in the NFL in rushing with just 82.8 yards per game. However, the Packers have been worse, ranking dead last in the league with just 54.3 rushing yards per game. Look for both teams to rely more on the pass here, with Favre having a big advantage over Brian Griese. EDGE: PACKERS
Chicago is 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the teams.
The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Green Bay's last 14 games vs. NFC North opponents.
The OVER is 16-5-1 in Chicago's last 22 games vs. NFC opponents.

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[pm530]

NFL ADDITIONAL


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Injury Updates
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10/05/07
05:14 PM Lineup Alert
NFL
Texans RB Ron Dayne is expected to start on Sunday, as Ahman Green (knee) is now out according to the Houston Chronicle.

10/05/07
05:12 PM Lineups
NFL
Chargers TE Antonio Gates (illness) has missed practice time, but is expected to play on Sunday.

10/05/07
05:11 PM Lineup Alert
NFL
Broncos WR Jevon Walker (knee) has been ruled out of Sunday's game.

10/05/07
02:17 PM Injury Alert
NFL
Bills WR Peerless Price has been diagnosed with a disc problem in his neck that will require surgery - ending his season.

10/05/07
02:15 PM Lineup Alert
NFL
Steelers SS Troy Polamalu (abdomen) and WR Hines Ward (knee) are NOT expected to play on Sunday.

10/05/07
02:14 PM Injuries
NFL
Rams WR Isaac Bruce (hamstring) will be a game-time decision on Sunday.

10/05/07
02:13 PM Injuries
NFL
Ravens TE Todd Heap (hamstring) will be a game-time decision Sunday.

NFL
Steelers WR Hines Ward (knee) is reportedly expected to miss Sunday's game.

10/05/07
11:11 AM News Alert
NFL
Broncos RB Travis Henry will be available to play football while his legal case is stuck in legal red tape according to the Denver Post.


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Week 5 betting notes
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Arizona at St. Louis (+3 ½)

St. Louis has lost its last two home games against Arizona after beating the Cardinals three straight times on its own field.

Atlanta at Tennessee (-9)

The Falcons have been outscored 37-10 in dropping their first two road games this season. They have not opened a year 0-3 away from home since losing their first six road games in 1996.

Carolina at New Orleans (-3)

David Carr and Steve Smith could have success against a New Orleans defense that has given up 239.0 passing yards per game - third-most in the conference.

Cleveland at New England (-16 ½)

New England has won three straight and five of the last six meetings against Cleveland. The Browns haven't won a road game against the Patriots since Oct. 25, 1992.

Detroit at Washington (-3 ½)

Detroit is 0-17 in Washington. This will be the first meeting between the Lions and Redskins since Nov. 7, 2004, when Detroit won 17-10 at home.

Jacksonville at Kansas City (+1)

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 35-30 at home on Dec. 31, clinching a wild card spot when other outcomes swung in their favor. Larry Johnson had 138 yards rushing and three touchdowns. The Jaguars, however, have won four of the six all-time meetings between the teams.

Miami at Houston (-5 ½)

Houston has won its only two meetings with Miami, a one-point victory in 2003 and a two-point victory last season at home, Gary Kubiak's first NFL win.

N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants (-3 ½)

The Giants have won the last three meetings with the Jets and six of 10 all-time meetings. The Giants' last loss in the series came Oct. 31, 1993.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5 ½)

Seattle has won four of these teams' five regular-season meetings since 1993, but Pittsburgh has won eight straight home games against NFC opponents since a 33-21 defeat to St. Louis on Oct. 26, 2003. The Steelers have won their two home games this year by a combined 63-19.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-10)

The Bucs weren't good defensively in their last meeting with the Colts on Oct. 6, 2003, as Indianapolis trailed 28-7 in the fourth quarter before rallying to tie the score at 35 with 35 seconds left. The Colts went on to win 38-35 in overtime, with Manning finishing 34-of-47 for 386 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Baltimore at San Francisco (+3 ½)

These teams last met on Nov. 30, 2003 in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 44-6.

San Diego at Denver (-1)

San Diego always has a tough time on the road against the Broncos. The Chargers rallied from a 17-point deficit for a 35-27 victory in their last game in Denver on Nov. 19, but that win was their first one there since 2000.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3)

The Bears have won four of the last six meetings between the teams, including three straight at Lambeau Field.

Dallas at Buffalo (+10)

This will be the first meeting between the Bills and Cowboys since Nov. 9, 2003, when Dallas won 10-6 at home. The Cowboys are 4-3 against the Bills in the regular season.


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Total bias: Week 5 over/under plays
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Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers – over 39

OK, I know these are two of the better defensive clubs so far this season. However if we go by each team’s average offensive output the total is about 11 points short of where it should be. The Seahawks aren’t missing Darrell Jackson as some expected and Shaun Alexander still has a nose for the paint when Seattle gets inside the red zone.

The Steelers’ Willie Parker is capable of breaking a long run with every touch and Santonio Holmes has gained the confidence of Ben Roethlisberger.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers – under 35 ½

This is a low number, but with Trent Dilfer at the helm for the Niners, it seems like a good play to me. Running back Frank Gore can’t find any room to operate because defenses know S.F. is a one-dimensional attack. Dilfer doesn’t have a safe-valve tight end to throw to with Vernon Davis still on the sidelines. Expect more three and outs from the Niners.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills – under 44 ½

The ‘Boys enter a bit of a trap game with a home matchup against the New England Patriots next weekend. The running backs will dominate the Monday night showcase, with Marshawn Lynch, Julius Jones and Marion Barber all getting their number called over and over again. The trio shouldn’t put up the same kind of numbers Thurman Thomas and Emmitt Smith did when these teams used to meet in the early 1990s.


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NFL underdogs: Week 5 picks
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Seattle at Pittsburgh – Seahawks +5 ½

Usually the Seahawks go as running back Shaun Alexander goes, but last week was different.

The Seahawks pounded the 49ers in almost every aspect of the game even though they only got 77 yards on the ground from Alexander. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch got themselves on the same page and Julian Peterson was rushing the quarterback like a man possessed.

When Seattle can win without a dominating Alexander, it’s a good thing for Seahawks bettors.


San Diego at Denver – Chargers +1 ½

Swapping Marty Schottenheimer for Norv Turner in the offseason has left the Chargers with one heck of a hangover. I never thought this was a sensible move in the first place and while a feeling-out process could be expected with the new coach, this team is just too talented to let a season slip away so early.

Last week’s loss to Kansas City had some positive points, like LaDainian Tomlinson finally breaking out for 132 yards and a major. But he could have racked up a lot more if San Diego stuck with the run in the second half after going into the break up 16-6.

Instead, with the Chiefs on their heels, the Chargers had Philip Rivers recklessly pitching the ball all over the field. By the end of it, San Diego fans were begging for last season’s bench boss with “MAR-TY! MAR-TY!” chants accompanying every incompletion.

Norv Turner’s no dummy; he’ll get the hint. There’s no way the Chargers should be shown up by the Chiefs and they’ll take it out on Denver, a club that’s not even as good as its mediocre 2-2 record suggests – the Broncos still haven’t covered a spread this season.


Chicago at Green Bay - Bears +3

A few years ago, Lovie Smith strolled into Halas Hall as Chicago’s new head coach, entrusted to clean up Dick Jauron’s mess. Where’d he start? With the hated Green Bay Packers.

In his first official statement as Bears boss, Smith said the team’s first goal would be to beat the Cheeseheads and then delivered a 21-10 statement win over the Pack at Lambeau Field as big 9-point underdogs in Week 2.

Three years later, everything’s come full-circle for Smith’s Bears. Now they have to go on the road and upset an upstart Packers club to keep their season alive.

It’s time to put up or shut up for the Bears. No more quarterback soap operas, no more whining about injuries, no more excuses. They need to win or else they’re pretty much back where they were three years ago when Smith first made beating the Packers his top priority.

Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record: 7-6


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Sunday NFL Gameday
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Brett Favre and the Packers will be trying to run their record to 5-0 with a win over the Bears on Sunday night. Here's a look at some of the bigger matchups in NFL Gameday:

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) (Total 39)
Heinz Field, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

The Seahawks improved their season mark to 3-1 last week by picking up a 23-3 road victory over the 49ers. Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had a solid day behind center, going 23-of-31 for 281 yards with two touchdown strikes and one interception. Shaun Alexander ran for 78 yards, while Bobby Engram and Marcus Pollard each had TD receptions. RB Alvin Pearman was lost for the season with a torn ACL in that game.

Pittsburgh dropped to 3-1 on the season by losing 21-14 on the road to the Cardinals last week. The Steelers led 7-0 at halftime in that contest, but they couldn't hold off Arizona in the final two quarters. Ben Roethlisberger went 17-of-32 for 244 yards for Pittsburgh in the loss, with two touchdown passes and two interceptions. Willie Parker ran for 37 yards. Receiver Hines Ward (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's contest.


Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-16.5) (Total 48.5)
Gillette Stadium, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

The up-and-down Browns bounced back with a 27-13 home win over the Ravens in Week 4, which evened their season record at 2-2. Derek Anderson completed 10-of-18 pass attempts for 204 yards for Cleveland in that game with two touchdown strikes and one interception, while Jamal Lewis ran for 64 yards and a score. Braylon Edwards had a TD reception versus the Ravens, and Kellen Winslow played through a sore shoulder.

The Patriots continued to look unbeatable on Monday night, cruising past the Bengals on the road by a final score of 34-13. Tom Brady went 25-of-32 for 231 yards passing in the win, with three touchdown strikes and one interception. Randy Moss caught nine passes for 102 yards and two TDs, while Sammy Morris rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown. Starting running back Laurence Maroney is still hampered by a groin injury.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-10) (Total 45.5)
RCA Dome, 4:05pm ET (FOX)

The 3-1 Buccaneers knocked off the Panthers 20-7 on the road last week, but they lost starting running back Carnell Williams for the season with a knee injury. Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham will fill in for Cadillac the rest of the way. Bucs QB Jeff Garcia went 15-of-25 for 176 yards passing versus the Panthers, while Pittman ran for 90 yards and Graham rushed for a score. Ike Hilliard had seven catches for 114 yards.

The Colts put up a pair of touchdowns in each of the second and third quarters en route to a 38-20 home win over the Broncos last week. Peyton Manning completed 20-of-27 pass attempts for 193 yards and three touchdown strikes in that contest, while Joseph Addai ran for 136 yards and a score. Dallas Clark had two TD catches, Reggie Wayne had one score, and Marvin Harrison left the game early after suffering a strained knee.


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-3) (Total 40.5)
Lambeau Field, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

It was a case of different quarterback, same results for the 1-3 Bears last week as Brian Griese was picked off three times in a 37-27 road loss to the Lions. Griese went 34-of-52 for 286 yards and two touchdowns for Chicago in that contest, while Cedric Benson ran for just 50 yards on his 15 carries. The Bears and their hobbled defense were actually in control on Sunday until the Lions exploded for 34 points in the fourth quarter.

Brett Favre led the Packers to a 4-0 record last week with 344 passing yards and two touchdown strikes in a 23-16 road win over the Vikings. Favre completed 32-of-45 pass attempts in that contest, and wasn't intercepted by the Minnesota defense. Green Bay's running game, though, continues to be non-existent, as DeShawn Wynn led the way with just 20 yards on 10 carries. Greg Jennings and James Jones had the TD catches.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 433-434: New Mexico State at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 67.835; Boise State 103.436
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 35 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Boise State by 22 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-22 1/2); Under

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[pm530]

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 7
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NEW MEXICO ST (3 - 2) at BOISE ST (3 - 1) - 10/7/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 37-15 ATS (+20.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 37-15 ATS (+20.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 42-21 ATS (+18.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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[pm530]

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 7

New Mexico State at Boise State, 8:00 ET ESPN
New Mexico State: 5-15 ATS as an underdog
Boise State: 18-5 ATS at home after scoring 37+ points

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up


Sunday, October 7

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-- New Mexico State lost last three trips to Boise by average of 51-14; Aggies covered just five of last 17 tries as underdog on road. Broncos are 27-11 vs spread as favorite on blue carpet.

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[pm530]

Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet


Sunday, October 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (98 - 66) at LA ANGELS (94 - 70) - 3:05 PM
CURT SCHILLING (R) vs. JERED WEAVER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-4 (+3.1 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

CURT SCHILLING vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
SCHILLING is 6-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.150.
His team's record is 6-2 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.0 units)

JERED WEAVER vs. BOSTON since 1997
WEAVER is 0-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.348.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

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CLEVELAND (98 - 66) at NY YANKEES (94 - 70) - 6:35 PM
JAKE WESTBROOK (R) vs. ROGER CLEMENS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 6-2 (+3.7 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

JAKE WESTBROOK vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
WESTBROOK is 2-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.08 and a WHIP of 1.512.
His team's record is 3-4 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-5. (-3.7 units)

ROGER CLEMENS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
CLEMENS is 9-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.220.
His team's record is 11-4 (+4.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-6. (+2.9 units)

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[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AL Divisonal Series
Game Three
Boston Leads, 2-0
TV: TBS

Boston at LA Angels, 3:05 ET
Curt Schilling (R) vs. Jeff Weaver (R)

Schilling:
3-9 TSR off a Boston win
8-15 TSR 2nd half of season

Weaver:
12-2 Under off a loss
Angels 41-18 SU at home in night games

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AL Divisonal Series
Game Three
Cleveland Leads, 2-0
TV: TBS

Cleveland at NY Yankees, 6:35 ET
Jake Westbrook (R) vs. Roger Clemens (R)

Westbrook:
Westbrook 13-4 Under 2nd half of season
Cleveland 20-3 Under on Sundays

Clemens:
15-20 TSR after giving up 1 or less ER last outing
Yankees 5-10 SU after scoring 3 runs or less BB games

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Sunday, October 7

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Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (TBS | 12:07 PM ET)

LA's Jered Weaver was 7-3 at home during the regular season with a 4.70 ERA but was even better during the day with a 2.63 ERA. However, Weaver has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-2 in four starts with a 4.70 ERA. SLIGHT EDGE: ANGELS
Boston's Curt Schilling is 6-2 lifetime against the Angels with a 3.67 ERA, but he suffered one of the losses on August 6th after giving up four runs and nine hits is six innings. SLIGHT EDGE: ANGELS
The Red Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 playoff games.
The Red Sox are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
The Angels are 2-6 in their last 8 home playoff games.
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in LA's last 9 playoff games.
The UNDER is 11-4 in Schilling's last 15 road starts.


Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees (TBS | 6:37 PM ET)

New York's Roger Clemens is 24-8 lifetime against the Indians with a 3.21 ERA. Clemens also pitched much better at home this season with a 4-2 mark and 3.29 ERA. EDGE: YANKEES
Cleveland's Jake Westbrook owns a 2-4 career mark vs. New York with a 5.29 ERA. Westbrook lost to the Yankees back on August 12th, giving up four runs and nine hits in seven innings. EDGE: YANKEES
The Yankees are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings but will be eliminated from the postseason with another loss..
The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Boston at LA Angels
Boston has continued to dominate the Angels in postseason play as the Red Sox have now won eight straight against LA dating back to 1986. They'll look to close out the series tonight with Curt Schilling on the mound. Schilling has thrived under the spotlight of postseason play and comes in with a 8-2 record and 2.06 ERA in 15 postseason starts. The veteran has also pitched well against the Angels in his career with a 6-2 mark 3.67 ERA. He'll face Jered Weaver, who will be making his first postseason appearance. He has never beaten the Red Sox in four career starts (0-2, 4.70). Boston looks like a good pick (-110) in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-110). Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 913-914: Boston at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Schilling) 16.143; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.175
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-110); Over

Game 915-916: Cleveland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 16.167; NY Yankees (Clemens) 15.905
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-197); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+189); Under