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NFL ADDITIONAL
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Week 5 betting notes
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Arizona at St. Louis (+3 ½)
St. Louis has lost its last two home games against Arizona after beating the Cardinals three straight times on its own field.
Atlanta at Tennessee (-9)
The Falcons have been outscored 37-10 in dropping their first two road games this season. They have not opened a year 0-3 away from home since losing their first six road games in 1996.
Carolina at New Orleans (-3)
David Carr and Steve Smith could have success against a New Orleans defense that has given up 239.0 passing yards per game - third-most in the conference.
Cleveland at New England (-16 ½)
New England has won three straight and five of the last six meetings against Cleveland. The Browns haven't won a road game against the Patriots since Oct. 25, 1992.
Detroit at Washington (-3 ½)
Detroit is 0-17 in Washington. This will be the first meeting between the Lions and Redskins since Nov. 7, 2004, when Detroit won 17-10 at home.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (+1)
The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 35-30 at home on Dec. 31, clinching a wild card spot when other outcomes swung in their favor. Larry Johnson had 138 yards rushing and three touchdowns. The Jaguars, however, have won four of the six all-time meetings between the teams.
Miami at Houston (-5 ½)
Houston has won its only two meetings with Miami, a one-point victory in 2003 and a two-point victory last season at home, Gary Kubiak's first NFL win.
N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants (-3 ½)
The Giants have won the last three meetings with the Jets and six of 10 all-time meetings. The Giants' last loss in the series came Oct. 31, 1993.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5 ½)
Seattle has won four of these teams' five regular-season meetings since 1993, but Pittsburgh has won eight straight home games against NFC opponents since a 33-21 defeat to St. Louis on Oct. 26, 2003. The Steelers have won their two home games this year by a combined 63-19.
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-10)
The Bucs weren't good defensively in their last meeting with the Colts on Oct. 6, 2003, as Indianapolis trailed 28-7 in the fourth quarter before rallying to tie the score at 35 with 35 seconds left. The Colts went on to win 38-35 in overtime, with Manning finishing 34-of-47 for 386 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Baltimore at San Francisco (+3 ½)
These teams last met on Nov. 30, 2003 in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 44-6.
San Diego at Denver (-1)
San Diego always has a tough time on the road against the Broncos. The Chargers rallied from a 17-point deficit for a 35-27 victory in their last game in Denver on Nov. 19, but that win was their first one there since 2000.
Chicago at Green Bay (-3)
The Bears have won four of the last six meetings between the teams, including three straight at Lambeau Field.
Dallas at Buffalo (+10)
This will be the first meeting between the Bills and Cowboys since Nov. 9, 2003, when Dallas won 10-6 at home. The Cowboys are 4-3 against the Bills in the regular season.
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Total bias: Week 5 over/under plays
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Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers – over 39
OK, I know these are two of the better defensive clubs so far this season. However if we go by each team’s average offensive output the total is about 11 points short of where it should be. The Seahawks aren’t missing Darrell Jackson as some expected and Shaun Alexander still has a nose for the paint when Seattle gets inside the red zone.
The Steelers’ Willie Parker is capable of breaking a long run with every touch and Santonio Holmes has gained the confidence of Ben Roethlisberger.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers – under 35 ½
This is a low number, but with Trent Dilfer at the helm for the Niners, it seems like a good play to me. Running back Frank Gore can’t find any room to operate because defenses know S.F. is a one-dimensional attack. Dilfer doesn’t have a safe-valve tight end to throw to with Vernon Davis still on the sidelines. Expect more three and outs from the Niners.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills – under 44 ½
The ‘Boys enter a bit of a trap game with a home matchup against the New England Patriots next weekend. The running backs will dominate the Monday night showcase, with Marshawn Lynch, Julius Jones and Marion Barber all getting their number called over and over again. The trio shouldn’t put up the same kind of numbers Thurman Thomas and Emmitt Smith did when these teams used to meet in the early 1990s.
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NFL underdogs: Week 5 picks
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Seattle at Pittsburgh – Seahawks +5 ½
Usually the Seahawks go as running back Shaun Alexander goes, but last week was different.
The Seahawks pounded the 49ers in almost every aspect of the game even though they only got 77 yards on the ground from Alexander. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch got themselves on the same page and Julian Peterson was rushing the quarterback like a man possessed.
When Seattle can win without a dominating Alexander, it’s a good thing for Seahawks bettors.
San Diego at Denver – Chargers +1 ½
Swapping Marty Schottenheimer for Norv Turner in the offseason has left the Chargers with one heck of a hangover. I never thought this was a sensible move in the first place and while a feeling-out process could be expected with the new coach, this team is just too talented to let a season slip away so early.
Last week’s loss to Kansas City had some positive points, like LaDainian Tomlinson finally breaking out for 132 yards and a major. But he could have racked up a lot more if San Diego stuck with the run in the second half after going into the break up 16-6.
Instead, with the Chiefs on their heels, the Chargers had Philip Rivers recklessly pitching the ball all over the field. By the end of it, San Diego fans were begging for last season’s bench boss with “MAR-TY! MAR-TY!” chants accompanying every incompletion.
Norv Turner’s no dummy; he’ll get the hint. There’s no way the Chargers should be shown up by the Chiefs and they’ll take it out on Denver, a club that’s not even as good as its mediocre 2-2 record suggests – the Broncos still haven’t covered a spread this season.
Chicago at Green Bay - Bears +3
A few years ago, Lovie Smith strolled into Halas Hall as Chicago’s new head coach, entrusted to clean up Dick Jauron’s mess. Where’d he start? With the hated Green Bay Packers.
In his first official statement as Bears boss, Smith said the team’s first goal would be to beat the Cheeseheads and then delivered a 21-10 statement win over the Pack at Lambeau Field as big 9-point underdogs in Week 2.
Three years later, everything’s come full-circle for Smith’s Bears. Now they have to go on the road and upset an upstart Packers club to keep their season alive.
It’s time to put up or shut up for the Bears. No more quarterback soap operas, no more whining about injuries, no more excuses. They need to win or else they’re pretty much back where they were three years ago when Smith first made beating the Packers his top priority.
Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record: 7-6
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Week 5 betting notes
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Arizona at St. Louis (+3 ½)
St. Louis has lost its last two home games against Arizona after beating the Cardinals three straight times on its own field.
Atlanta at Tennessee (-9)
The Falcons have been outscored 37-10 in dropping their first two road games this season. They have not opened a year 0-3 away from home since losing their first six road games in 1996.
Carolina at New Orleans (-3)
David Carr and Steve Smith could have success against a New Orleans defense that has given up 239.0 passing yards per game - third-most in the conference.
Cleveland at New England (-16 ½)
New England has won three straight and five of the last six meetings against Cleveland. The Browns haven't won a road game against the Patriots since Oct. 25, 1992.
Detroit at Washington (-3 ½)
Detroit is 0-17 in Washington. This will be the first meeting between the Lions and Redskins since Nov. 7, 2004, when Detroit won 17-10 at home.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (+1)
The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 35-30 at home on Dec. 31, clinching a wild card spot when other outcomes swung in their favor. Larry Johnson had 138 yards rushing and three touchdowns. The Jaguars, however, have won four of the six all-time meetings between the teams.
Miami at Houston (-5 ½)
Houston has won its only two meetings with Miami, a one-point victory in 2003 and a two-point victory last season at home, Gary Kubiak's first NFL win.
N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants (-3 ½)
The Giants have won the last three meetings with the Jets and six of 10 all-time meetings. The Giants' last loss in the series came Oct. 31, 1993.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5 ½)
Seattle has won four of these teams' five regular-season meetings since 1993, but Pittsburgh has won eight straight home games against NFC opponents since a 33-21 defeat to St. Louis on Oct. 26, 2003. The Steelers have won their two home games this year by a combined 63-19.
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-10)
The Bucs weren't good defensively in their last meeting with the Colts on Oct. 6, 2003, as Indianapolis trailed 28-7 in the fourth quarter before rallying to tie the score at 35 with 35 seconds left. The Colts went on to win 38-35 in overtime, with Manning finishing 34-of-47 for 386 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Baltimore at San Francisco (+3 ½)
These teams last met on Nov. 30, 2003 in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 44-6.
San Diego at Denver (-1)
San Diego always has a tough time on the road against the Broncos. The Chargers rallied from a 17-point deficit for a 35-27 victory in their last game in Denver on Nov. 19, but that win was their first one there since 2000.
Chicago at Green Bay (-3)
The Bears have won four of the last six meetings between the teams, including three straight at Lambeau Field.
Dallas at Buffalo (+10)
This will be the first meeting between the Bills and Cowboys since Nov. 9, 2003, when Dallas won 10-6 at home. The Cowboys are 4-3 against the Bills in the regular season.
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Total bias: Week 5 over/under plays
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Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers – over 39
OK, I know these are two of the better defensive clubs so far this season. However if we go by each team’s average offensive output the total is about 11 points short of where it should be. The Seahawks aren’t missing Darrell Jackson as some expected and Shaun Alexander still has a nose for the paint when Seattle gets inside the red zone.
The Steelers’ Willie Parker is capable of breaking a long run with every touch and Santonio Holmes has gained the confidence of Ben Roethlisberger.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers – under 35 ½
This is a low number, but with Trent Dilfer at the helm for the Niners, it seems like a good play to me. Running back Frank Gore can’t find any room to operate because defenses know S.F. is a one-dimensional attack. Dilfer doesn’t have a safe-valve tight end to throw to with Vernon Davis still on the sidelines. Expect more three and outs from the Niners.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills – under 44 ½
The ‘Boys enter a bit of a trap game with a home matchup against the New England Patriots next weekend. The running backs will dominate the Monday night showcase, with Marshawn Lynch, Julius Jones and Marion Barber all getting their number called over and over again. The trio shouldn’t put up the same kind of numbers Thurman Thomas and Emmitt Smith did when these teams used to meet in the early 1990s.
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NFL underdogs: Week 5 picks
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Seattle at Pittsburgh – Seahawks +5 ½
Usually the Seahawks go as running back Shaun Alexander goes, but last week was different.
The Seahawks pounded the 49ers in almost every aspect of the game even though they only got 77 yards on the ground from Alexander. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch got themselves on the same page and Julian Peterson was rushing the quarterback like a man possessed.
When Seattle can win without a dominating Alexander, it’s a good thing for Seahawks bettors.
San Diego at Denver – Chargers +1 ½
Swapping Marty Schottenheimer for Norv Turner in the offseason has left the Chargers with one heck of a hangover. I never thought this was a sensible move in the first place and while a feeling-out process could be expected with the new coach, this team is just too talented to let a season slip away so early.
Last week’s loss to Kansas City had some positive points, like LaDainian Tomlinson finally breaking out for 132 yards and a major. But he could have racked up a lot more if San Diego stuck with the run in the second half after going into the break up 16-6.
Instead, with the Chiefs on their heels, the Chargers had Philip Rivers recklessly pitching the ball all over the field. By the end of it, San Diego fans were begging for last season’s bench boss with “MAR-TY! MAR-TY!” chants accompanying every incompletion.
Norv Turner’s no dummy; he’ll get the hint. There’s no way the Chargers should be shown up by the Chiefs and they’ll take it out on Denver, a club that’s not even as good as its mediocre 2-2 record suggests – the Broncos still haven’t covered a spread this season.
Chicago at Green Bay - Bears +3
A few years ago, Lovie Smith strolled into Halas Hall as Chicago’s new head coach, entrusted to clean up Dick Jauron’s mess. Where’d he start? With the hated Green Bay Packers.
In his first official statement as Bears boss, Smith said the team’s first goal would be to beat the Cheeseheads and then delivered a 21-10 statement win over the Pack at Lambeau Field as big 9-point underdogs in Week 2.
Three years later, everything’s come full-circle for Smith’s Bears. Now they have to go on the road and upset an upstart Packers club to keep their season alive.
It’s time to put up or shut up for the Bears. No more quarterback soap operas, no more whining about injuries, no more excuses. They need to win or else they’re pretty much back where they were three years ago when Smith first made beating the Packers his top priority.
Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record: 7-6
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