Friday Trends and Indexes 10/05

[pm530]

NFL – Betting Notes

NFL
Week 5 betting notes


Arizona at St. Louis (+3 ½)

St. Louis has lost its last two home games against Arizona after beating the Cardinals three straight times on its own field.

Atlanta at Tennessee (-9)

The Falcons have been outscored 37-10 in dropping their first two road games this season. They have not opened a year 0-3 away from home since losing their first six road games in 1996.

Carolina at New Orleans (-3)

David Carr and Steve Smith could have success against a New Orleans defense that has given up 239.0 passing yards per game - third-most in the conference.

Cleveland at New England (-16 ½)

New England has won three straight and five of the last six meetings against Cleveland. The Browns haven't won a road game against the Patriots since Oct. 25, 1992.

Detroit at Washington (-3 ½)

Detroit is 0-17 in Washington. This will be the first meeting between the Lions and Redskins since Nov. 7, 2004, when Detroit won 17-10 at home.

Jacksonville at Kansas City (+1)

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 35-30 at home on Dec. 31, clinching a wild card spot when other outcomes swung in their favor. Larry Johnson had 138 yards rushing and three touchdowns. The Jaguars, however, have won four of the six all-time meetings between the teams.

Miami at Houston (-5 ½)

Houston has won its only two meetings with Miami, a one-point victory in 2003 and a two-point victory last season at home, Gary Kubiak's first NFL win.

N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants (-3 ½)

The Giants have won the last three meetings with the Jets and six of 10 all-time meetings. The Giants' last loss in the series came Oct. 31, 1993.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5 ½)

Seattle has won four of these teams' five regular-season meetings since 1993, but Pittsburgh has won eight straight home games against NFC opponents since a 33-21 defeat to St. Louis on Oct. 26, 2003. The Steelers have won their two home games this year by a combined 63-19.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-10)

The Bucs weren't good defensively in their last meeting with the Colts on Oct. 6, 2003, as Indianapolis trailed 28-7 in the fourth quarter before rallying to tie the score at 35 with 35 seconds left. The Colts went on to win 38-35 in overtime, with Manning finishing 34-of-47 for 386 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Baltimore at San Francisco (+3 ½)

These teams last met on Nov. 30, 2003 in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 44-6.

San Diego at Denver (-1)

San Diego always has a tough time on the road against the Broncos. The Chargers rallied from a 17-point deficit for a 35-27 victory in their last game in Denver on Nov. 19, but that win was their first one there since 2000.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3)

The Bears have won four of the last six meetings between the teams, including three straight at Lambeau Field.

Dallas at Buffalo (+10)

This will be the first meeting between the Bills and Cowboys since Nov. 9, 2003, when Dallas won 10-6 at home. The Cowboys are 4-3 against the Bills in the regular season.

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[pm530]

NFL
Total bias: over/under plays

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers – over 39

OK, I know these are two of the better defensive clubs so far this season. However if we go by each team’s average offensive output the total is about 11 points short of where it should be. The Seahawks aren’t missing Darrell Jackson as some expected and Shaun Alexander still has a nose for the paint when Seattle gets inside the red zone.

The Steelers’ Willie Parker is capable of breaking a long run with every touch and Santonio Holmes has gained the confidence of Ben Roethlisberger.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers – under 35 ½

This is a low number, but with Trent Dilfer at the helm for the Niners, it seems like a good play to me. Running back Frank Gore can’t find any room to operate because defenses know S.F. is a one-dimensional attack. Dilfer doesn’t have a safe-valve tight end to throw to with Vernon Davis still on the sidelines. Expect more three and outs from the Niners.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills – under 44 ½

The ‘Boys enter a bit of a trap game with a home matchup against the New England Patriots next weekend. The running backs will dominate the Monday night showcase, with Marshawn Lynch, Julius Jones and Marion Barber all getting their number called over and over again. The trio shouldn’t put up the same kind of numbers Thurman Thomas and Emmitt Smith did when these teams used to meet in the early 1990s.

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[pm530]

NFL
Underdogs: Week 5 picks


Seattle at Pittsburgh – Seahawks +5 ½

Usually the Seahawks go as running back Shaun Alexander goes, but last week was different.

The Seahawks pounded the 49ers in almost every aspect of the game even though they only got 77 yards on the ground from Alexander. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch got themselves on the same page and Julian Peterson was rushing the quarterback like a man possessed.

When Seattle can win without a dominating Alexander, it’s a good thing for Seahawks bettors.


San Diego at Denver – Chargers +1 ½

Swapping Marty Schottenheimer for Norv Turner in the offseason has left the Chargers with one heck of a hangover. I never thought this was a sensible move in the first place and while a feeling-out process could be expected with the new coach, this team is just too talented to let a season slip away so early.

Last week’s loss to Kansas City had some positive points, like LaDainian Tomlinson finally breaking out for 132 yards and a major. But he could have racked up a lot more if San Diego stuck with the run in the second half after going into the break up 16-6.

Instead, with the Chiefs on their heels, the Chargers had Philip Rivers recklessly pitching the ball all over the field. By the end of it, San Diego fans were begging for last season’s bench boss with “MAR-TY! MAR-TY!” chants accompanying every incompletion.

Norv Turner’s no dummy; he’ll get the hint. There’s no way the Chargers should be shown up by the Chiefs and they’ll take it out on Denver, a club that’s not even as good as its mediocre 2-2 record suggests – the Broncos still haven’t covered a spread this season.


Chicago at Green Bay - Bears +3

A few years ago, Lovie Smith strolled into Halas Hall as Chicago’s new head coach, entrusted to clean up Dick Jauron’s mess. Where’d he start? With the hated Green Bay Packers.

In his first official statement as Bears boss, Smith said the team’s first goal would be to beat the Cheeseheads and then delivered a 21-10 statement win over the Pack at Lambeau Field as big 9-point underdogs in Week 2.

Three years later, everything’s come full-circle for Smith’s Bears. Now they have to go on the road and upset an upstart Packers club to keep their season alive.

It’s time to put up or shut up for the Bears. No more quarterback soap operas, no more whining about injuries, no more excuses. They need to win or else they’re pretty much back where they were three years ago when Smith first made beating the Packers his top priority.

Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record: 7-6

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[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Friday, October 5

2007 first-round playoff series

Indians won last seven Carmona starts (5-0, 2.04 in his last five outings). Bronx was 6-0 vs Cleveland this season, which means nothing now that Tribe won series opener 12-3; Pettitte won on this field Aug 12 (5-3; allowed two runs in 7.1 IP) 5:00 local time start means shadows on field, maybe tougher than usual to see the ball. Under is 13-2 in last fifteen Carmona starts. Pettitte has 7.54 RA in his last four starts, but Bronx still won ten of his last twelve outings.

Angels looked helpless at plate vs Beckett Wednesday, but in Game 2, they face Matsuzaka (2-2, 7.32 in his last six starts). Red Sox are 6-9 in his last 15 outings, with four of his last five going over total (Over is also 4-1 in last five Escobar starts). He didn't face Angels this year. Angels won seven if last nine starts by Escobar, but they scored 10+ points in five of the seven wins. Escobar didn't face Red Sox this season, either.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Friday, October 5

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Tips and Trends
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New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (TBS | 5:07 PM ET)

New York's Andy Pettitte is just 6-7 lifetime vs. Cleveland with a 4.50 ERA. Pettitte won at Cleveland back on August 12th, giving up two runs and seven hits in seven innings with two walks and four strikeouts. SLIGHT EDGE: INDIANS
Cleveland's Fausto Carmona has only faced the Yankees once during his career, allowing four runs and eight hits in seven innings with one walk and two strikeouts. Carmona is 10-4 at home this season with an impressive 3.32 ERA. EDGE: INDIANS
The Indians are 16-3 in their last 19 home games.
The Yankees are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.


Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox (TBS | 8:37 PM ET)

Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his playoff debut and has never faced the Angels. Dice-K was 8-4 at Fenway Park during the regular season with a 4.86 ERA. SLIGHT EDGE: RED SOX
LA's Kelvim Escobar owns a career mark of 6-7 against the Red Sox with a 4.64 ERA. Escobar did not pitch against them this year though and was a strong 8-3 on the road with a 3.72 ERA. SLIGHT EDGE: RED SOX
The Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 playoff games.
The Angels are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games.
The Angels are 7-19 in their last 26 visits to Boston.
The UNDER is 6-2 in LA's last 8 playoff games.

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[pm530]

Baseball Today - October 5

SCOREBOARD
Friday, Oct. 5

L.A. Angels at Boston (8:37 p.m. EDT). Daisuke Matsuzka makes his first playoff start for the Red Sox up 1-0 in the series over Kelvim Escobar and the Angels.


STARS

-Josh Beckett, Red Sox, pitched his second consecutive postseason shutout, leading Boston to a 4-0 victory over the Los Angeles Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS.

ALL ZEROS

Josh Beckett pitched his second consecutive postseason shutout and, backed by a home run from David Ortiz, led the Boston Red Sox over the Los Angeles Angels 4-0 Wednesday night in their AL playoff opener. Beckett retired 19 consecutive batters after a leadoff single, allowed just four hits and ran his postseason scoreless streak to 18 innings. The last time he pitched on such a stage, he blanked the New York Yankees to clinch the '03 Series for Florida.

DESERT DUEL

Brandon Webb shut down the Chicago Cubs with his superb sinker, and the Arizona Diamondbacks got home runs from two of their youngsters in a 3-1 victory Wednesday night in their NL playoff opener. Stephen Drew homered in the fourth off Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano, who was pulled after six innings and only 85 pitches. Right after he left, Mark Reynolds homered on the fourth pitch from reliever Carlos Marmol to break a 1-all tie in the seventh.

SMASHING

Matt Holliday hit a solo home run in Colorado's 4-2 victory over Philadelphia on Monday and the Rockies won for the 15th time in 16 games and got the second playoff victory in the franchise's 15-year history, after one in 1995.

ROCKED

The first four hitters in Philadelphia's batting order combined to go 0-for-15 with 12 Ks in a 4-2 loss to Colorado on Monday. Chase Utley, a .332 hitter, struck out four times for the second time this year and Ryan Howard was 0-for-4, fanning three times as the Rockies took a 1-0 series lead.

MOVING ON

Walt Jocketty is out after 13 seasons as general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, one year after the team won the World Series for the first time since 1982. Team president Mark Lamping said Jocketty's departure with a year remaining on his contract was a mutual decision, and that he'd be paid. Jocketty oversaw the team as it made seven postseason appearances, one of the best stretches in franchise history, and hired current manager Tony La Russa in 1996.

SPEAKING

''He's a guy that wants to be great. He doesn't want to be pretty good. He wants to be the best guy that takes the mound. That's what you want from your ace.'' - Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell on Josh Beckett, who pitched his second consecutive postseason shutout, leading Boston over the Los Angeles Angels 4-0 Wednesday night in their AL playoff opener.

SEASONS
Oct. 5

1941 - Brooklyn catcher Mickey Owen dropped a third strike on Tommy Henrich of what would have been the last out of a Dodgers victory against the New York Yankees. Given the second chance, the Yankees scored four runs for a 7-4 victory and a 3-1 lead in the World Series, which they ended up winning.

1947 - Al Gionfriddo's catch in left field robbed Joe DiMaggio of a game-tying home run in Game 6 of the World Series. The Dodgers beat the Yankees 8-6.

1966 - Baltimore reliever Moe Drabowsky fanned 11 and gave up one hit in 6 2-3 innings to beat the Dodgers 5-2 in the opening game of the World Series.

1967 - Jim Lonborg of the Boston Red Sox pitched a one-hit, 5-0 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals to tie the World Series 1-1. Carl Yastrzemski hit two home runs.

1986 - Pete Incaviglia of Texas hit his 30th home run of the season against the California Angels to become the 16th rookie in major league history to reach that plateau. The homer came off Don Sutton as the Rangers beat the Angels 7-4.

1996 - Bernie Williams homered from each side of the plate and Cecil Fielder broke a tie with a seventh-inning single as the New York Yankees beat Texas 6-4 to win the division series 3-1 and advance to the ALCS.

2001 - Barry Bonds set a new mark for home runs in a single season, hitting Nos. 71 and 72, but San Francisco was eliminated from the playoffs with an 11-10 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The game time was four hours, 27 minutes, setting a record for the longest nine-inning game.

2001 - The Mariners won their 115th game of the year to become the winningest team in American League history, passing the record the Yankees set three years earlier. Jamie Moyer became the oldest first-time 20-game winner, leading Seattle to a 6-2 victory over the Rangers.

2001 - Tim Hudson pitched Oakland to its 100th victory of the season as the Athletics beat the Angels 6-2. The Athletics became the eighth team in modern major league history to win 100 games but finish second in their division.

2002 - The wild-card Anaheim Angels roughed up Yankees starters Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and David Wells in succession to win the AL division series 3-1 and end New York's four-year run as league champions.

2003 - The Chicago Cubs won their first postseason series since 1908 when they beat Atlanta 5-1 in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS.

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[pm530]

Weekend Sports Preview

The MLB playoffs continue this week, but they’ll have to share the cramped sports stage with college, NFL and CFL football, NHL, NASCAR and Formula 1 racing.

The opening round of the MLB playoffs continues through the weekend. On Friday both ALDS series are on the schedule with Game 2 between the Yankees and Cleveland, and Game 2 between the Angels and Boston. The NL takes over on Saturday with Game 3 between Arizona and Chicago and Game 3 between Colorado and Philadelphia. All eight playoff teams could be in action on Sunday, if necessary, with Game 3 between the Angels and Boston, Game 3 between the Yankees and Cleveland, Game 4 between Arizona and Chicago, and Game 4 between Colorado and Philadelphia all potentially on the schedule.

Week 5 in the NFL kicks off on Sunday with 13 games on the slate. The top matchups on the day include a former Super Bowl rematch between Seattle and Pittsburgh (-6), the Jets at the Giants (-3.5), Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-10) San Diego at Denver (-1) and Chicago at Green Bay (-3). The rest of the Sunday schedule includes Miami at Houston (-5), Jacksonville at Kansas City (+2), Cleveland at New England (-16.5), Arizona at St. Louis (+3), Atlanta at Tennessee (-8), Detroit at Washington (-3.5) and Baltimore at San Francisco (+3).

In college football this weekend, eight Top 10 teams take to the gridiron on Saturday. There are three Top 25 matchups involving Top 10 teams, including No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 19 Texas (+11.5), No. 4 Ohio State at No. 23 Purdue (+7), and No. 9 Florida at No. 1 LSU (-7.5). The rest of the Top 10 teams playing Saturday include No. 5 Wisconsin at Illinois (-2.5), Bowling Green at No. 7 Boston College (-20), No. 6 South Florida at Florida Atlantic (+16.5), and Stanford at No. 2 USC (-40).

The NHL is back with a busy weekend, especially on Saturday. The weekend gets started off Friday night with six games, including Pittsburgh at Carolina, Anaheim at Columbus, the Islanders at Buffalo, Washington at Atlanta, Boston at Denver and San Jose at Vancouver.

There are 14 games on the schedule Saturday highlighted by Carolina at Washington, the Rangers at Ottawa, Montreal at Toronto, Atlanta at Tampa Bay, Anaheim at Pittsburgh and Vancouver at Calgary. Also on tap for Saturday is New Jersey at Florida, Buffalo at the Islanders, Dallas at Nashville, Columbus at Minnesota, Philadelphia at Edmonton, Detroit at Chicago, Boston at Phoenix and St. Louis at Los Angeles.

Also, north of the border this weekend the CFL enters Week 15 with a pair of games. On Friday night BC takes on Winnipeg (+2), while Edmonton travels to Toronto (-10.5) on Saturday.

The Chase for the Nextel Cup resumes on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway with the UAW-Ford 500. Jimmie Johnson is the favorite at 4/1, but Jeff Gordon already has a win at Talladega this season and is also high on the odds at 5/1.

The Formula 1 season continues to wind down this weekend with the Chinese Grand Prix at the Shanghai International Circuit. With two races remaining in the season, Lewis Hamilton has a 12-point lead in the standings over McLaren-Mercedes teammate Fernando Alonso.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Friday, October 5

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Friday's NHL games

Carolina won four of last five games vs Penguins, going 3-1 in last four in this building (3-2SO/3-4/6-2/3-2); three of last year's four series games stayed under total. Hurricanes lost 3-2 in OT to Montreal in first '07 game. This is Pittsburgh's opener.

Anaheim 1-2 already after shootout loss in Detroit Wednesday; they got outshot 42-15, after splitting pair in England over the weekend vs Kings. Visiting team won their last six games vs the Jackets, with Ducks winning last three visits here (4-3/5-2/4-3).

Washington won three of last four games vs Atlanta, after they had lost seven of previous eight series games; they're 3-4 their last seven trips to this site. Last five series games stayed under the total. Both teams are playing their season opener.

Buffalo won 11 of last 13 games vs Islanders, ousting New York in five games in playoffs last spring; Isles lost six of last seven visits to western NY, with five of the six losses by two or more goals. Both teams are playing their season opener here.

Dallas lost 4-3 in Colorado Wedneday, despite outshooting the Avalanche 34-23; they won 61% of faceoffs, had two goals on power play and still lost. Bruins are playing season opener; two years ago, Dallas won 2-1(SO) in Boston, in last series meeting.

San Jose lost in SO at Edmonton last night, as 0-0 game after 2 periods turned into 2-2 tie; Sharks lost last three games against Vancouver (3-1/2-1OT/4-3) but they split last four visits here to this site. Canucks are playing their season opener here.

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[vinnyvegas]

Friday's List of 13: Tell your statistics to shut up.............

13) Patriots have started ten drives 80 or more yards from the end zone; they’ve scored TDs on seven of those ten drives, an amazing percentage. Put it this way; 32 NFL teams have a total of 62 TD drives of 80+ yards, and Patriots have seven.

12) Dallas has started nine drives in enemy territory, most in NFL, part of why they’ve scored a league-high 18 TDs on 44 drives (41%).

11) Cowboys also lead league with 22 plays from scrimmage of 20+ yards.

10) Dallas and Colts, at +7, are tied for league lead in turnover ratio, with New Orleans (-8, in only three games) team with worst ratio.

9) Detroit may be 3-1, but they have turned ball over 12 times and allowed 21 sacks. 13 takeaways have Lions where they are right now. Martz Madness always has its miscues.

8) One of big reasons Miami is still winless is their failure on third downs; they’re last in NFL in 3rd down conversions (26.3%) on offense, and defense (55.6%).

7) League leaders in 3rd down conversions are Oakland on offense (52.5%) and Chiefs on defense (27.8%).

6) Who is worst team in red zone?: Try the Rams, who have gotten to the opponents’ 20-yard line ten times, with just 33 points to show for it. Terrible. Now we get to see if Frerotte can do better. He could use some healthy linemen.

5) Panthers, Browns’ opponents have both started 11 drives in enemy territory, most in the league.

4) 49ers have gone 3/out 47% (23-49) of time, and with Alex Smith still out, that doesn’t figure to approve anytime soon.

3) Bears (48.9%), Steelers (45.2%) have forced the highest percentage of 3/outs.

2) Part of Denver’s problem is that they’ve forced opponents to throw only 29 incomplete passes in four games, a very low number. Five teams have already forced 60+ IPs.

1) If you look at each team’s record on first drive of each half, you see the Patriots have outscored opponents 41-7 on those eight drives; Denver (3-24), Jets (3-21) have done worst on first drives.

A daily read for me...THX so much...

1, where do u get this & 2 where are these type of stats dug up? R they published somewhere?

Appreciate the work.

[Udog]

From Vinny Vegas in post #24: "1, where do u get this & 2 where are these type of stats dug up? R they published somewhere?"


Vinny.

It's against the rules to name the place but, if Spark doesn't mind giving you my email, shoot me a note and I'll let you know, tonight, when I get back from work.

I saved your "team sites" list from last year and haven't remembered to post it yet! I'm going to fix that immediately!

Good luck today, Vinny!

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


NY Yankees at Cleveland

C.C. Sabathia was able to shake off his career woes against the Yankees (1-7; 7.13 coming in) in a 12-3 win last night. The win also snapped New York's perfect 6-0 mark against the Tribe during the regular season. Instead it was the Yankees who continued their streak of postseason futility as they dropped their fourth straight and 11 of 14 overall in the playoffs dating back to 2004. Cleveland will try to go up 2-0 today behind Fausto Carmona, who went 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts. NY's Andy Pettitte has enjoyed postseason success (14-9 record), but not at Jacobs Field where he is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in two appearances. Cleveland looks like a good home underdog pick (+125) in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 5

Game 901-902: NY Yankees at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.582; Cleveland (Carmona) 16.616
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-133); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Over


Game 903-904: LA Angels at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Escobar) 14.520; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.912
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-149); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-149); Under

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel


Pittsburgh at Carolina

The young Penguins look to build on last season's improvement as they open tonight in Carolina. Pittsburgh made a dramatic turnaround with a 47-24-11 record last year after recording just 22 wins in 2005-06. It was the fourth best improvement in NHL history and was good enough to put the Penguins into the postseason where they lost to eventual conference champ Ottawa. Reigning MVP Sidney Crosby returns to lead the club along with Rookie of the Year Evgeni Malkin (33 goals) and Jordan Staal (29 goals). Malkin is the oldest of the bunch at 21. Pittsburgh also added some experience with veterans Darryl Sydor and Petr Sykora. After a disappointing 2006-07 campaign, Carolina stumbled out of the gate in a 3-2 overtime loss to Montreal at home. The Penguins look like a good underdog pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 5

Game 1-2: Anaheim at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.442; Columbus 11.534
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+105); Under


Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.676; Carolina 10.635
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under


Game 5-6: NY Islanders at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.121; Buffalo 12.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-180); Under


Game 7-8: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.609; Atlanta 11.124
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under


Game 9-10: Boston at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.186; Dallas 11.385
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-180); Under


Game 11-12: San Jose at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.531; Vancouver 11.375
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+105); Under

[Udog]

NCAAF
Team Sites


AIR FORCE- www.airforcesports.com
AKRON- www.gozips.com
ALABAMA- www.rolltide.com
ALA-BIRM- www.uabsports.com
ARIZONA- www.arizonaathletics.com
ARIZ. ST.- www.sundevils.com
ARKANSAS- www.hogwired.com
ARKANSAS ST- www.asuindians.com
ARMY- www.goarmysports.com
AUBURN- www.auburntigers.com
BALL STATE- www.ballstatesports.com
BAYLOR- www.baylorbears.com
BOISE ST.- www.broncosports.com
BOSTON COLLEGE- www.bceagles.com
BOWLING GREEN- www.bgsufalcons.com
BYU- www.byucougers.com
BUFFALO- www.ubathletics.buffalo.edu
CAL- www.calbears.com
C. FLORIDA- www.ucfathletics.com
C. MICH- www.cmuchippewas.com
CINCY- www.ucbearcats.com
CLEMSON- www.clemsontigers.com
COLORADO- www.cubuffs.com
COLO ST. - www.csurams.com
CONN- www.uconnhuskies.com
DUKE- www.goduke.com
E. CAR.- www.ecupirates.com
E. MICH- www.emueagles.com
FLORIDA- www.gatorzone.com
FLORIDA ATL.- www.fausports.com
FLORIDA INT. - www.flusports.com
FLORIDA ST. - www.seminoles.com
FRESNO ST. - www.gobulldogs.com
GEORGIA- www.georgiadogs.com
GEORGIA TECH- www.ramblinwreck.com
HAWAII- www.uhathletics.hawaii.edu
HOUSTON- www.uhcougers.com
IDAHO- www.uiathletics.com
ILLINI- www.fightingillini.com
INDIANA- www.iuhoosiers.com
IOWA- www.hawkeyesports.com
IOWA ST. - www.cyclones.com
KANSAS- www.kuathletics.com
KANSAS ST. - www.k-statesports.com
KENT ST. - www.kentstatesports.com
KENTUCKY- www.ukathletics.com
LOUIS. LAFAYETTE- www.ragincajuns.com
LOUIS. MONROE- www.ulmathletics.com
LSU- www.LSUsports.com
LOUIS. TECH - www.latechsports.com
LOUISVILLE- www.uoflsports.com
MARSHALL- www.herdzone.com
MARYLAND- www.umterps.com
MEMPHIS - www.gotigersgo.com
MIAMI FL. - www.hurricanesports.com
MIAMI OHIO- www.muredhawks.com
MICHIGAN- www.mgoblue.com
MICH ST- www.msuspartans.com
MIDD TENN ST. - www.goblueraiders.com
MINNESOTA- www.gophersports.com
MISSISSIPPI- www.olemisssports.com
MISS. STATE- www.mstateathletics.com
MISSOURI- www.mutigers.com
NAVY- www.navysports.com
NEBRASKA- www.XXXXs.com
NEVADA- www.nevadawolfpack.com
NEW MEXICO- www.golobos.com
NEW MEXICO ST- www.nmstatesports.com
NORTH CAROLINA- www.tarheelblue.com
NC STATE- www.gopack.com
NO. TEXAS- www.meangreensports.com
NO. ILLINOIS- www.niuhuskies.com
NORTHWESTERN- www.nusports.com
NOTRE DAME- www.und.com
OHIO ST. - www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com
OHIO U. - www.ohiobobcats.com
OKLAHOMA- www.soonersports.com
OKLA ST- www.okstate.com
OREGON- www.goducks.com
OREGON ST- www.osubeavers.com
PENN ST.- www.gopsusports.com
PITT- www.pittsburghpanthers.com
PURDUE- www.purduesports.com
RICE- www.riceowls.com
RUTGERS- www.scarletknights.com/football
SDSU- www.goaztecs.com
SAN JOSE ST- www.sjsuspartons.com
SMU- www.smumustangs.com
SOUTH CAROLINA - www.uscsports.com
SOUTH FLORIDA- www.gobulls.usf.edu
SOUTHERN CAL - www.usctrojans.com
SO. MISS- www.southernmiss.com
STANFORD- www.gostanford.com
SYRACUSE- www.suathletics.com
TCU- www.gofrogs.com
TEMPLE- www.owlsports.com
TENNESSEE- www.utsports.com
TEXAS- www.texassports.com
TEXAS AM- www.aggiesports.com
TEXAS EL PASO - www.utepathletics.com
TEXAS TECH- www.texastech.com
TOLEDO- www.utrockets.com
TROY- www.troytrojans.com
TULANE- www.tulanegreenwave.com
TULSA- www.tulsahurricane.com
UCLA- www.uclabruins.com
UNLV- www.unlvrebels.com
UTAH- www.utahutes.com
UTAH ST. www.utahstateaggies.com
VANDY- www.vucommodores.com
VIRGINIA- www.virginiasports.com
V. TECH- www.hokiesports.com
WAKE FOREST- www.wakeforestsports.com
WASHINGTON- www.gohuskies.com
WASH ST. - www.wsucougars.com
WEST VIRGINIA- www.wvu.edu/~sports
W. MICH- www.wmubroncos.com
WISKY- www.uwbadgers.com
WYOMING- www.wyomingathletics.com

[Kaptain]

Louisville/Utah article for JC---+ More

After dodging a three-game losing streak by winning at N.C. St. last week, Louisville (3-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) returns home Friday to take on Utah from out of the Mountain West Conference.

Most sports books are listing the Cardinals as 15-point favorites with a total of 61. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the total at 65. The Utes are plus 500 on the money line (risk $100 to win $500 if they win outright).

Steve Kragthorpe has come under heavy scrutiny in his first year after replacing Bobby Petrino, who enjoyed an outstanding 41-9 record in four seasons at Louisville.





In a way, it was somewhat of a relief when Petrino bolted for the Falcons. Ever since his arrival in the Bluegrass State, Petrino’s name was mentioned for nearly every elite college job that opened.

He had flirted with LSU, Notre Dame and Auburn. He even turned down $18 million from Al Davis to become the Raiders coach.

But by the time Arthur Blank came calling, Petrino had done enough for the U of L faithful, and it wasn’t as if he was leaving for another college job. And hey, wouldn’t it be nice to bring in some stability?

But that thought process went out the window a couple of weeks ago. Giving up 42 points to Middle Tennessee was one thing, but losing to in-state rival Kentucky was nearly inconceivable.

Losing to Syracuse? At home? That was downright sinful.

Petrino had built the Cardinals into a powerhouse. QB Brian Brohm had returned for his senior season. How could it fall apart so quickly?

But all of those things happened. Louisville had to outscore MTSU in a 58-42 ‘non-covering’ victory as a 41-point ‘chalk.’ The Cardinals gave up a last-minute score and lost 40-34 at UK as six-point favorites.

Then there was the Syracuse debacle. The ‘Cuse had lost four straight games by margins of 21 points or more. Nevertheless, the Orange came to Papa John’s Stadium and captured a 38-35 win as a 37-point underdog.

Alas, Kragthorpe and Co. got back into the win column last week, even covering the spread for the first time in a 29-10 win in Raleigh as a nine-point favorite. Brohm threw for 251 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Anthony Allen (18 carries, 112 yards) and Brock Bolen (85 rushing yards) combined for 197 yards on the ground.

Also, the Cardinals saw Big East rivals West Virginia and Rutgers go down in upset fashion. Therefore, they know a conference title is still well within their grasp.

But Louisville needs to concentrate on its own issues, starting with Friday’s tilt against Utah (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) that leads into back-to-back road games against unbeaten Cincy and UConn.

Utah has won two of its last three games after dropping its first two outings. The Utes are off a 34-18 win over Utah State, but they failed to cover the number as 21-point favorites.

Brian Johnson made his first start at QB since separating his shoulder in the season opener. Johnson threw for 181 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Utah has been outscored 51-7 in its road games this year. The Utes opened the season with a 24-7 loss at Oregon St., and they also dropped a 27-0 decision at UNLV.

On the flip side, the Utes have been serious money makers in spots when they are catching a bunch of points. In fact, they destroyed UCLA by a 44-6 count as 16 ½-point home underdogs on Sept. 22.

Dating back even further, Utah has a 5-0 spread record as a double-digit underdog since 1997. When listed as ‘dogs of 8 ½ points or more, the Utes are 8-0 ATS dating back to ’97.

Louisville running back George Stripling has been suspended for one game, the University announced Wednesday morning. Stripling was disciplined for an unspecified violation of team rules.
He is the team’s second-leading rusher with 177 yards and one touchdown. Stripling is the Cardinals’ speed back, offering a change of pace from bigger RBs like Allen and Bolen.

Stripling is the third player disciplined by Kragthorpe in the last two weeks. LB Willie Williams was dismissed from school following his arrest for marijuana possession, while WR JaJuan Spillman was suspended indefinitely.

Kick-off is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday. ESPN will provide the telecast.



--Auburn has won 12 in a row over Vandy. However, the Commodores are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs. Auburn All-American DE Quentin Groves is “out.” The Tigers are 7 ½-point favorites at most books.

OU/TEXAS
Nine straight games in the Red River Rivalry have been decided by double digits.
--Oklahoma State is 2-7 ATS as a road ‘dog under Mike Gundy. The Cowboys are six-point underdogs for this week’s trip to College Station.

--Kansas has lost 20 of its last 22 Big 12 road games.

--Nebraska is 2-4 ATS in six games as a road underdog under Bill Callahan. The Cornhuskers are seven-point ‘dogs Saturday at Missouri.

--Georgia has won 23 of 26 true road games during Mark Richt’s tenure. The Dawgs are in Knoxville this weekend.

--Tennessee has an abysmal 12-26 spread record in its last 38 games as a home ‘chalk.’

[pm530]

Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet


Friday, October 5

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NY YANKEES (94 - 69) at CLEVELAND (97 - 66) - 5:05 PM
ANDY PETTITTE (L) vs. FAUSTO CARMONA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 94-69 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 32-29 (-8.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 42-40 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
NY YANKEES are 26-33 (-15.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 11-16 (-14.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
NY YANKEES are 82-60 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 97-66 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 26-5 (+19.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 335-294 (-61.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 6-1 (+4.9 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

ANDY PETTITTE vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
PETTITTE is 4-8 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 5.32 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 6-8 (-6.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-6. (+1.4 units)

FAUSTO CARMONA vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
CARMONA is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.231.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

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LA ANGELS (94 - 69) at BOSTON (97 - 66) - 8:35 PM
KELVIM ESCOBAR (R) vs. DAISUKE MATSUZAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 72-43 (+11.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA ANGELS are 168-120 (+44.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 91-63 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA ANGELS are 76-48 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA ANGELS are 40-27 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA ANGELS are 51-33 (+17.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 294-233 (-60.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-4 (+2.1 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

KELVIM ESCOBAR vs. BOSTON since 1997
ESCOBAR is 3-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.446.
His team's record is 4-8 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-6. (-2.3 units)

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts

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