V V Computations

[vinnyvegas]

Want to start tracking this w/in a thread...

I run a somewhat simple stat driven model for football...College & NFL...actually not simple but lots of stats to create a 'REAL LINE' vs what Vegas puts out...

I know, I know, Vegas factors a lot of stuff into their lines...much more than anyone probably could imagine...I think one of my bday wishes will be to one day see the amount of computers & people involved in determining all the lines in all the sports over the course of a year...especially when you've got NBA/NHL/NFL/CFB/NCAAB...and so on going on during a week/weekend...it's a machine!! I digress...

After inputs, I get a spread/line for any game I chose to run this...amazingly, over years of tweaking, I've found a lot of success in seeing what a line 'SHOULD' be based on my model versus what Vegas throws out...it helps me in seeing where the value is in a particular game.

Here's an example of 3 CFB games this week & what the MNF game said:

MNF:

NE -14 vs Vegas having NE -7.5 & higher...my bet was NE as I posted...winner

CFB:

Memphis -11 vs Vegas -2.5
S Miss -15 vs Vegas -20
S Carol -4 vs Vegas -3.5

Now that I know what my line is vs Vegas, I take into consideration many other factors but knowing my value for 1 team or another I think improves my odds of being on the right side...LOL

I also do not start running this until at least 3-5 weeks into the season to make sure I am getting good stats/trends from the teams O & D...

This week so far, Memphis has a lot of value tonight...Rice looks like a live DOG & my line is about the same as Vegas is w/ the SCarol/Kentucky game...so on to more data/info/analysis...then I make picks.

For sure I am eyeing Memphis tonight w/ that kind of line value however, it requires some more digging w/ such a gross difference in what Vegas has thrown out I'd hate to just drop down a bet based on that alone...

Some may wonder how this plays out for bets...%...well, it's had some awfully good runs & amazingly I've seen it dead on what Vegas throws out...what's tough is factoring a human element...my bias &/or listening to talking heads or reading too much info...that's where sometimes I wish I'd just go w/ what it spits out vs taking the other crap into consideration. The bowl games this past year were unbelievable and not sure if that was a function of all the stats for year or what?

I believe Spearit is familiar w/ some of this from past emails we've shared as well as some others w/in my circle...

Again, I just want to track it here...and maybe lend some insights or info to any and all...it's nothing I would tout just a bored degenerates way of making his hobby more profitable and fun.

I will post lines/picks w/in this thread going forward to see what turns up this season...

I will caution all that it is a bit time consuming, so I will try my best to do as many games as I can...but if you have a request, let me know & I'll try to bust it out...the mid-week games are easy since not much else going on...

If I was really bored & had some IT expertise, I'd automate this...& crank out all games...but as a hobby, I'll just input away & see what it spits out...

Any ?'s ask & I'll try to answer as best as I can...

Enjoy & good luck...

[Chado1]

Interesting vinny and thanks!!!

[vinnyvegas]

Here r stats below I look at...but I do a lot of computations based on these base stats...comparisons & such to give me figures, that I then look at how they fall w/in certain ranges...w/in those ranges I give a 'VALUE' +/- and that tallies up for both teams & presto, I get one team w/ a higher tally than another to give me a line or PK...just some of the guts behind this, if that makes sense...LOL...OH, I do factor in pts for HOME TEAM, so that is a fixed pt value I give to home team...at one pt I factored in type of turf but pulled since I don't see it being that big a factor (for the most part)...

FIRST DOWNS GAINED
FIRST DOWNS ALLOWED
RUSHES
OPPONENTS’ RUSHES
RUSH YDS GAINED
RUSH YDS ALLOWED
PASS ATTEMPTS
OPPONENTS’ PASS ATT
PASS YDS GAINED
PASS YDS ALLOWED
TURNOVERS LOST
OPP TURNOVERS REC
POINTS SCORED
POINTS ALLOWED

Again, something to think about or maybe someone sees something I should/would consider...or 'spark' an idea...

[xstac2169]

any chance on sharing the system with a fellow member/capper? maybe i could help ya out in cranking out as many games as possible. normally my days are pretty thin as far as work goes with the exception being every few months. could get to work on weekend games as soon as lines come out.

gl either way and definately interesting to hear about one's systems. i am still trying to tweak one for ncaa basketball season. been working on it for a couple months in my spare time.

[vinnyvegas]

Friday game:

Utah @ Louis

Louis -15 vs Vegas -14.5

As you can see...my line can be right on...now it the work begins...GL

[vinnyvegas]

any chance on sharing the system with a fellow member/capper? maybe i could help ya out in cranking out as many games as possible. normally my days are pretty thin as far as work goes with the exception being every few months. could get to work on weekend games as soon as lines come out.

gl either way and definately interesting to hear about one's systems. i am still trying to tweak one for ncaa basketball season. been working on it for a couple months in my spare time.

X,

Ask Spark for my email...

[Kaptain]

gl to ya---thanks

[Kaptain]

gl to ya---thanks

[kbsooner21]

Thanks vinny! Very interesting.

How about Oklahoma vs Texas?

[vinnyvegas]

Thanks vinny! Very interesting.

How about Oklahoma vs Texas?

KB,

Here u go...but I believe it becomes a matter of how much one may think this is a Home game for either or NEUTRAL...

My line is OK -11 vs Vegas -11 SAME (giving TX NO pts for HOME FIELD)...

However, by giving TX 1-3 pts for home field (Cotton Bowl, so is it a home field for either???) my line goes down from 11. If someone wanted to give TX all 3 pts for HOME FIELD, then it becomes OK -8 & you'd have some value in TX to cover...

I think we also have Colt concussion as a factor to consider...both off loses...I've never been a fan of Mack Brown...actually think if not for Vince Young he loses or never makes to BCS game...IMHO

Hope that helps...

I like doing games that Vegas doesn't do as well with...smaller conf or games where you might find some hidden value...but finding them is another challenge...

GL

[vinnyvegas]

Using model said to take Memphis...Memphis covers the posted -2.5 line...

Couple notes/comments: I would have taken Marshall based on additional capping & had them at +3 or 3.5 if line moved to 3 like I saw at my book...so a push or winner based on final line...Marshall killed themselves and could have gotten a win but failed...

Tonight, says take Rice & pts if using model only...don't trust that at all knowing how bad Rice is but haven't capped it...

1-0 YTD CFB (for tracking purposes only, not what I've actually wagered)

[kbsooner21]

KB,

Here u go...but I believe it becomes a matter of how much one may think this is a Home game for either or NEUTRAL...

My line is OK -11 vs Vegas -11 SAME (giving TX NO pts for HOME FIELD)...

However, by giving TX 1-3 pts for home field (Cotton Bowl, so is it a home field for either???) my line goes down from 11. If someone wanted to give TX all 3 pts for HOME FIELD, then it becomes OK -8 & you'd have some value in TX to cover...

I think we also have Colt concussion as a factor to consider...both off loses...I've never been a fan of Mack Brown...actually think if not for Vince Young he loses or never makes to BCS game...IMHO

Hope that helps...

I like doing games that Vegas doesn't do as well with...smaller conf or games where you might find some hidden value...but finding them is another challenge...

GL

Not a home field for either team. Almost equal distance to the Cotton Bowl from both Austin and Norman. 50% of tickets alocated to both sides/ split in half at the 50 yard line.

Thanks and if you get time for me for 1 more game, I 'd be curious to see the Missouri/Nebraska game. Thanks!

[vinnyvegas]

Not a home field for either team. Almost equal distance to the Cotton Bowl from both Austin and Norman. 50% of tickets alocated to both sides/ split in half at the 50 yard line.

Thanks and if you get time for me for 1 more game, I 'd be curious to see the Missouri/Nebraska game. Thanks!

KB,

Agree it's not a 'home' field...but someone capping may give an edge, slight as it may be to TX, if any...but it's a choice.

Ran Mizzou/Neb...

Got exactly Mizzou -7 vs Vegas 7

So Vegas appears to have this nailed exactly...I give edge to Mizzou if forced to take a side...home field, better rushing #'s, like Mizzou's QB a lot...certainly consider taking Mizzou -7 or buy down a 1/2 to 6.5...

GL

[kbsooner21]

Thanks VV!

[vinnyvegas]

Want to start tracking this w/in a thread...

I run a somewhat simple stat driven model for football...College & NFL...actually not simple but lots of stats to create a 'REAL LINE' vs what Vegas puts out...

I know, I know, Vegas factors a lot of stuff into their lines...much more than anyone probably could imagine...I think one of my bday wishes will be to one day see the amount of computers & people involved in determining all the lines in all the sports over the course of a year...especially when you've got NBA/NHL/NFL/CFB/NCAAB...and so on going on during a week/weekend...it's a machine!! I digress...

After inputs, I get a spread/line for any game I chose to run this...amazingly, over years of tweaking, I've found a lot of success in seeing what a line 'SHOULD' be based on my model versus what Vegas throws out...it helps me in seeing where the value is in a particular game.

Here's an example of 3 CFB games this week & what the MNF game said:

MNF:

NE -14 vs Vegas having NE -7.5 & higher...my bet was NE as I posted...winner

CFB:

Memphis -11 vs Vegas -2.5
S Miss -15 vs Vegas -20
S Carol -4 vs Vegas -3.5

Now that I know what my line is vs Vegas, I take into consideration many other factors but knowing my value for 1 team or another I think improves my odds of being on the right side...LOL

I also do not start running this until at least 3-5 weeks into the season to make sure I am getting good stats/trends from the teams O & D...

This week so far, Memphis has a lot of value tonight...Rice looks like a live DOG & my line is about the same as Vegas is w/ the SCarol/Kentucky game...so on to more data/info/analysis...then I make picks.

For sure I am eyeing Memphis tonight w/ that kind of line value however, it requires some more digging w/ such a gross difference in what Vegas has thrown out I'd hate to just drop down a bet based on that alone...

Some may wonder how this plays out for bets...%...well, it's had some awfully good runs & amazingly I've seen it dead on what Vegas throws out...what's tough is factoring a human element...my bias &/or listening to talking heads or reading too much info...that's where sometimes I wish I'd just go w/ what it spits out vs taking the other crap into consideration. The bowl games this past year were unbelievable and not sure if that was a function of all the stats for year or what?

I believe Spearit is familiar w/ some of this from past emails we've shared as well as some others w/in my circle...

Again, I just want to track it here...and maybe lend some insights or info to any and all...it's nothing I would tout just a bored degenerates way of making his hobby more profitable and fun.

I will post lines/picks w/in this thread going forward to see what turns up this season...

I will caution all that it is a bit time consuming, so I will try my best to do as many games as I can...but if you have a request, let me know & I'll try to bust it out...the mid-week games are easy since not much else going on...

If I was really bored & had some IT expertise, I'd automate this...& crank out all games...but as a hobby, I'll just input away & see what it spits out...

Any ?'s ask & I'll try to answer as best as I can...

Enjoy & good luck...

2-0 so far through 2 nights.

To be consistent or for tracking, since my line says SC is a 4 pt fav & Vegas saying 3.5, value would be taking SC since they should cover...right? 1/2 pt value, not a lot but it works.


Tomorrow's game my line & vegas about same...