Suckers Bet

[frankb03]

TEASERS

We've previously debated this topic. Teasers are a suckers bet. I stated in another thread last week it's my unscientific opinion that teasers posted here at BC are well below 50% let alone 56% Chuck, a once respected BC capper, was 1-6 yesterday with his teasers. His track record with them this season has been very poor.

Playing a teaser at -130 requires the bettor to hit better than 56% of the teasers to break-even. Meaning one has to hitter better than 80% (74.9% x 74.9%) with each team to win long-term. IMO most bettors can't pick 74% winners SU without any spread involved.

Teasers should be recreational bets. Play a few bucks on a game for some action. No one can win long term betting teasers. I guarantee there are no professional sport bettors that play teasers to win.

Final point. There's no way Vegas offers teasers if it wasn't to their advantage. Like the exotics at race tracks the odds probably heavily favor the house.

[wayne1218]

I love teasers. I'm a sucker for them and i've come to grips with that fact. lol

[GrandPa]

Amen my brotha. Same for parlays

[baseballdave]

I love teasers. I'm a sucker for them and i've come to grips with that fact. lol

That sounds nasty lol

[bryce]

I love teasers in the NFL and play them often. I rarely tease down---take the points!! I do not tease College ever...

[griffey_mojo]

TEASERS

We've previously debated this topic. Teasers are a suckers bet. I stated in another thread last week it's my unscientific opinion that teasers posted here at BC are well below 50% let alone 56% Chuck, a once respected BC capper, was 1-6 yesterday with his teasers. His track record with them this season has been very poor.

Playing a teaser at -130 requires the bettor to hit better than 56% of the teasers to break-even. Meaning one has to hitter better than 80% (74.9% x 74.9%) with each team to win long-term. IMO most bettors can't pick 74% winners SU without any spread involved.

Teasers should be recreational bets. Play a few bucks on a game for some action. No one can win long term betting teasers. I guarantee there are no professional sport bettors that play teasers to win.

Final point. There's no way Vegas offers teasers if it wasn't to their advantage. Like the exotics at race tracks the odds probably heavily favor the house.

Agree with everything you said. And really agree with the part in bold.

[vondie]

are you teasing us now?

[wayne1218]

Agree with everything you said. And really agree with the part in bold.

griffey, That is no different than anything else offered in Vegas. Tonight's spread on the game, you could say the exact same thing. They wouldn't offer straight wagers if they didn't make money on them either. If you are a gambler, you fall in to that trap with EVERY wager you make. Have you seen the Hotels out there? I bet more of them were built off straight wagers over anything else! lol

[griffey_mojo]

griffey, That is no different than anything else offered in Vegas. Tonight's spread on the game, you could say the exact same thing. They wouldn't offer straight wagers if they didn't make money on them either. If you are a gambler, you fall in to that trap with EVERY wager you make. Have you seen the Hotels out there? I bet more of them were built off straight wagers over anything else! lol

I agree.

It would be my guess that the "teaser" "pleaser" option was added on and not one of the original ways to place a wager back in the day.

**Disclaimer** I have no facts to back up that statement.


But it is my perception that people hit a lower percentage of teasers when in fact they need to hit a higher percentage just to break even. People see that and say "shit...7 points....I can't screw this up....This is a gimme."

[GrandPa]

griffey, That is no different than anything else offered in Vegas. Tonight's spread on the game, you could say the exact same thing. They wouldn't offer straight wagers if they didn't make money on them either. If you are a gambler, you fall in to that trap with EVERY wager you make. Have you seen the Hotels out there? I bet more of them were built off straight wagers over anything else! lol

The difference is in the disparity in payouts relative to the odds of winning.


For example, with 10% juice, which is the industry standard, and the best to use for argument's sake, a bettor must win 52.4% of the time to break even.

On a parlay of two teams, the pay is typically 2.6/1, while the true odds are 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/4, 3:1, or 40 cents charge for "handling."

It's even worse on three-team and higher parlays. A 3-teamer is usually "rewarded" with a return of 6:1, though the true odds are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2, or 1/8 ( 7:1). A full dollar is charged.

So if a player wins the normal amount of times, the return is less than that of straight bets. It is the same with teasers, where the player gets extra points, but has to win more games. The trade-off is punished in reward money, and often times the teaser result is no different than the straight result.

It's all about mathematics.

There is a reason they are called sucker bets.

A roulette wheel has 38 numbers ( 36 + 0 and 00), yet pays off 35:1 for any number, 12:1 for any 1/3 section, even money on odd/even or black/red. Quite simply, the house has the long-term edge on every game in the house. The only exception is the ever-so slight edge enjoyed by card-counting blackjack players.

The long run: Books, casinos have unlimited time and money, extremely deep pockets, and no emotional attachments, plus are not having drinks to raise the level of daring-do. It's a game one can only win over the short term.

Sorry to be such a downer , hope I didn't burst anybody's bubble.

[vondie]

Sadly, both winning AND losing is fun. although....losing your ass off and getting punished is not fun. I don't mind losing slowly though. haha.

[wayne1218]

I agree.

It would be my guess that the "teaser" "pleaser" option was added on and not one of the original ways to place a wager back in the day.

**Disclaimer** I have no facts to back up that statement.


But it is my perception that people hit a lower percentage of teasers when in fact they need to hit a higher percentage just to break even. People see that and say "shit...7 points....I can't screw this up....This is a gimme."

I agree. Most people in the long run will lose on teasers and parlays. I also believe in the long run, most people will lose betting straight wagers too.

I'm sure Vegas has had days when they got crushed on straight wagers, teasers and parlays. I'm also sure that on average 4/5 days a week, they crush everyone on all 3 as well.

I read a story a few years ago online and i wish i could find it again. It was about teasers. It said that Vegas was NOT a fan of teasers on days in which there was only 1 game (Like Monday Night Football). It did make sense. The story proclaimed that they love them on Saturday's & Sunday's but not so much on Monday.

Vegas gets a TON of action on MNF and Parlay's & Straight wagers are happily accepted. Teasers are pretty much dealt with because they have to offer them. In a parlay, there is a guarantee to Vegas that no more than 2 of the 4 options can cover. The same with straight wagers, only one or the other can cover. Well teasers are a different beast on MNF. Two of the 4 options are guaranteed to cover and according to what i read, almost 40% of the time, a 3rd option also covers. There are times too when all 4 sides cover in a tease (Fav, Dog, Over, Under). Like the article stated, when that happens, EVERY single teaser wager placed on that game is a Winner and Vegas gets CRUSHED on those nights. There are no other wagers on the board where any side or total on a particular game is a winner ... NONE!

If you play a teaser on a MNF game, there are going to be times when NO MATTER WHAT you play, it wins. I believe that MNF Teaser theory with Vegas. I really do and i think Vegas would LOVE people to stick to straight wagers and parlays on MNF. Weekends, they LOVE offering them. MNF and other single game nights, i do not believe it favors Vegas one bit!

[frankb03]

I agree. Most people in the long run will lose on teasers and parlays. I also believe in the long run, most people will lose betting straight wagers too.

The difference is most people will lose a lot less with straight wagers.

If Joe Public hits at 50% then it's safe to say they hit far less having to pick 2 games with a teaser. Plus laying -130 is a killer.

[diesel]

Frank, You are 100% correct in your assesment

[frankb03]

If you play a teaser on a MNF game, there are going to be times when NO MATTER WHAT you play, it wins. I believe that MNF Teaser theory with Vegas. I really do and i think Vegas would LOVE people to stick to straight wagers and parlays on MNF. Weekends, they LOVE offering them. MNF and other single game nights, i do not believe it favors Vegas one bit!

Statistically, this is not true. Monday teasers favors Vegas more than Sunday.

On Sunday 15.2% of the games both teams cover both the ATS and OU with a 7 point teaser in the same game.

On Monday it's 13.1%


In Sunday games 42.1% both teams cover a teaser ATS
Monday 35.3%

In Sunday games 38.1% both teams cover the teaser OU
Monday 42.5%