Monday Trends and Indexes 10/01

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, October 1

Good Luck on day #274 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Monday

-- Mets have many interesting, difficult questions to tackle this offseason, after the worst collapse in baseball history.

-- Other than Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Maine, this is an old team; they own their own TV station, so they have ton of cash-- we'll see how they decide to spend it.

-- Looks like the Phillies' series will be the one that gets to play in the afternoon, like A's-Twins series last year. All the TV slots will be announced Monday.

-- Colorado won Sunday, Padres lost, so there is a play-in game on TV at 7:37 ET Monday, for the last NL playoff spot.

-- Wonderful managing job by Clint Hurdle, who brought Colorado back from dead for their 13-1 finish.

-- Wow, the Rockies and Padres on national TV- there are probably TV executives who didn't know they existed.

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[pm530]

Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

13) Giants sacked Donovan McNabb twelve times in 16-3 win Sunday night; hideous performance by Eagles, who had a net 14 yards passing, committed 15 penalties for 132 yards, were 5-16 on third down, and gave up a defensive TD. Without a healthy Brian Westbrook, Eagles resemble the '76 Bucs.

12) Raiders got delayed by lightning for second time in their first four games, but when the game finally started, then ran the ball down Dolphins' throats (49 carries, 299 yards) in the 35-17 win. Culpepper was just 5-12 passing, but he beat the team that cut him, then gloated and taunted the Miami fans.

11) Joey Harrington has played well in his first two home tilts for the Falcons; Atlanta beat old friend Matt Schaub Sunday, and got its first win of year, 26-16.

10) Cleveland looked dynamite in easy 27-13 win over Ravens who looked shot with aging McNair under center. As well as Derek Anderson is playing QB for Browns, wouldn't expect to see Brady Quinn playing anytime soon.

9) I had to re-read the following sentence after I typed it, to make sure it was right: Detroit trailed 13-3 after three quarters to the Bears, but then scored 34 points in the fourth quarter, scoring three TDs in 4:50 span, another couple later. When was last time the Bears allowed 34 points in a single quarter?

8) It couldn't have been all Rex Grossman's fault then, huh?

7) The most amazing thing about Packers' 4-0 start is winning without any semblance of a running game; they had just 46 yards on 20 carries in their win at Minnesota Sunday.

6) Cowboys have now scored 107 second half points in their four games. Ram defense gave them a good challenge in first half, but with zero support from the offense, they faded badly in the second half.

5) David Carr was worst QB I've seen in 30 years, since Jerry Golsteyn stunk it up for Giants; he can't hit the side of a barn, he isn't an accurate passer. Carolina is stuck with him-- how the hell did the Texans keep him for so long? He's terrible, and Steve Smith almost had breakdown on sidelines Sunday, during a five-catch, 32-yard nightmare.

4) Almost as awful as Carr was Trent Dilfer, who came in for an injured Alex Smith after 49ers' first series; Niners averaged a whopping 0.55 yards per pass attempt in their 23-3 loss.

3) Two-time NFL MVP Kurt Warner came off bench again to spark Arizona to a tying TD, then Michigan alum Breaston ran punt back for TD, as Arizona evened their record with its 21-14 win over the Steelers, vindicating the Cardinal coaches who were passed over in favor of new Steeler coach Tomlin, even though they had been longtime Pittsburgh aides.

2) I feel awful for Norv Turner, whose third shot as being an NFL head coach has turned into a trainwreck after only four games. Philip Rivers is playing terribly- they came unglued in fourth quarter vs Chiefs. With trip to Denver on deck, things have a chance to get a lot uglier before they get better.

1) McNabb got sacked three times on his way from the locker room to the team bus after the game.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

MONDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 231-232: New England at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: New England 147.049; Cincinnati 132.454
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 6; 52
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 4

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Monday, October 1
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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 10/1/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

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Monday, October 1st
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New England at Cincinnati, 8:30 ET ESPN
New England: 6-0 ATS away off a division game
Cincinnati: 1-6 ATS in October

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Week 4 - 2007 NFL season

Monday, October 1

Patriots (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)-- New England crushing foes so far, winning by 24-24-31 points, scoring 38 in all three games-- they waxed Bengals 38-13 in Week 4 LY, outrushing Cincy 236-71, winning 63% of third down plays, scoring TDs on all three drives that started in Bengal territory. Cincy allowed 75 points in losing on road last two weeks (10 TDs on 25 drives); they’ve turned ball over nine times in three games. You look at Bengal defense that allowed 51 points in Cleveland, and you wonder how they’ll ever stop Brady-led passing game that has been sacked just three times in 91 pass attempts. But, Monday night home dogs are long-revered angle, so have to respect emotional, erratic hosts. Bengals are wearing their orange jerseys, and they are undefeated in those jerseys, if you believe in that stuff.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Monday, October 1

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Tips and Trends
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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

The Patriots have scored 38 points in every game this seasn and did the same thing in a 38-13 road win last year at Cincinnati. The last meeting was also a breakout performance for Patriots rookie Laurence Maroney, who rushed for 125 yards and two touchdowns in the rout. Maroney is listed as questionable for this game with a groin injury, which may mean the NFL's highest-rated passer (Tom Brady) might have to throw the ball a bit more. Brady is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes with a league-high 10 touchdown passes and just one interception. Cincy's defense is giving up 402.7 yards and 31.3 points per game, fourth-worst in the NFL. EDGE: PATRIOTS & OVER
The Bengals will be without the services of starting RB Rudi Johnson due to a strained hamstring. That also means QB Carson Palmer will need to throw the ball a lot more to favorite targets Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh, who have caught seven of his nine touchdown passes this season. EDGE: BENGALS & OVER
New England's one obvious weakness this year has been red zone defense, as opponents have scored touchdowns all five times they have penetrated the 20-yard line this season. "We haven't stopped anybody yet, so it starts with me," Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. "We can't let them in the end zone every time they cross the 20-yard line. It's just ridiculous." EDGE: BENGALS & OVER
The Patriots are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games against teams with a losing record.
The Patriots are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 road games.
The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on Monday Night Football.
The Bengals are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.

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[pm530]

NFL – Betting Notes

NFL
NFL betting news and notes

Monday, October 1

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NFL Betting Notes
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New England at Cincinnati

Cincinnati's defense is giving up 402.7 yards and 31.7 points per game, both fourth-worst in the NFL.

Opponents have scored touchdowns all five times they have moved inside the Patriots' 20-yard line.

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[pm530]

NFL
Total bias: over/under plays


New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – over 52 ½

I think we’re going to see lots of over-the-top touchdown celebrations in this one. Bill Belichick knows running the ball is the key to beating the Bengals but it’s going to be hard not to take a couple of shots downfield with Randy Moss ready to test Cincinnati’s secondary.

The Bungles are always good for some turnovers (11 in their first three outings) and the Pats should turn those mistakes into points.

Last week's record: 2-1

Season record: 7-2

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[pm530]

National Football League – Preview

NFL

Monday, October 1

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NFL Preview
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Monday Night Football Preview

Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati Bengals need a win on Monday night to get to .500 on the season, but to score that victory they'll have to get past the New England Patriots.

Palmer went 27-of-43 for 342 yards passing last weekend versus the Seattle Seahawks, but he managed to toss just one touchdown strike (to go along with two interceptions) in the 24-21 road defeat. Chad Johnson had nine catches for 138 yards on the day, while T.J. Houshmandzadeh had a dozen catches for 141 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The Bengals' ground stats weren't nearly as impressive. Kenny Watson had 60 yards rushing and a score, but Rudi Johnson picked up only nine yards on 17 carries. Johnson also caught one ball for 33 yards in the loss, but he won't be able to improve on those statistics against the Patriots - he'll sit on Monday night with a hamstring injury.

New England ran their record to 3-0 with a 38-7 pasting of the Buffalo Bills last week. Tom Brady continued his fine campaign by going 23-of-29 for 311 yards and four touchdowns in the easy win. Randy Moss had five catches for 115 yards and two scores, while Wes Welker managed to haul in six Brady passes for 69 receiving yards.

On the ground the Pats got 103 yards from Laurence Maroney on 19 carries, while Sammy Morris ran for 46 yards on 12 carries and a score. Maroney is nursing a groin injury, however, and was listed as questionable on New England's official injury report.

New England's offense has been remarkably consistent so far this season - they also scored 38 points in a 38-14 win over the New York Jets in Week 1, and they produced 38 points once again in a 38-14 win over the San Diego Chargers in Week 2. The Bengals have been scoring as well (27 points in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, 45 points in Week 2 against the Cleveland Browns), but their defense has allowed 95 points over their first three games - which ranks them second-worst of all AFC teams.

The oddsmakers like the Pats' chances of running up the score against the Bengals - they're listed as 7.5-point road favorites in this game. The total is pegged at 53.5 points.

The Patriots have won the past two meetings between these teams. In October 2006 New England came out on top 38-13 as 6-point road underdogs. The combined score of that game went OVER the posted total of 46 points. In December 2004 the Pats defeated Cincinnati 35-28, but didn't cover the 11-point home spread in the OVER play.

Here are the official injury reports for both New England and Cincinnati for Monday . . .

New England Injuries
Troy Brown WR P-U-P List (knee)
Chad Jackson WR P-U-P List (knee)
Eddie Jackson CB P-U-P List (knee)
Richard Seymour DE P-U-P List (knee)
Rodney Harrison S Out Until October 7 (suspension)
Rosevelt Colvin LB Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Randall Gay CB Questionable Week 4 (thigh)
Laurence Maroney RB Questionable Week 4 (groin)
Steve Neal G Questionable Week 4 (shoulder)
Donte' Stallworth WR Questionable Week 4 (knee)
Kelley Washington WR Questionable Week 4 (hamstring)
Vince Wilfork DT Questionable Week 4 (knee)
Mike Wright DE Questionable Week 4 (knee)
Billy Yates G Questionable Week 4 (shoulder)
Tom Brady QB Probable Week 4 (right shoulder)
Kevin Faulk RB Probable Week 4 (team decision)

Cincinnati Injuries
Chris Perry RB P-U-P List (ankle/leg)
David Pollack LB P-U-P List (neck)
Odell Thurman LB Out For Season (suspension)
Chris Henry WR Out Until November 11 (suspension)
Rashad Jeanty LB Out Week 4 (shin)
Rudi Johnson RB Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Ethan Kilmer S Out Week 4 (knee)
Tab Perry WR Out Week 4 (hamstring)
Ahmad Brooks LB Doubtful Week 4 (groin)
Caleb Miller LB Doubtful Week 4 (back)
Stacy Andrews G Questionable Week 4 (shoulder)
Willie Anderson T Probable Week 4 (foot)
Eric Ghiaciuc C Probable Week 4 (thumb)
Shayne Graham K Probable Week 4 (groin)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR Probable Week 4 (knee)
Anthony Schlegel LB Probable Week 4 (toe)
Justin Smith DE Probable Week 4 (foot)

The Patriots return home to host the Browns at Gillette Stadium next Sunday afternoon, while the Bengals have a bye in Week 5 then return in Week 6 to take on Kansas City.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Monday, October 1

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Tips and Trends
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San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (TBS | 7:37 PM ET)

San Diego starter Jake Peavy is an even 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 12 career starts versus Colorado. The right-hander has tossed 14 solid innings against the Rockies in 2007, giving up two earned runs and eight hits over that span. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES
Peavy is an amazing 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 14 road starts this season. He’s allowed just 59 hits and six home runs in 91 2/3 innings away from Petco Park. BIG EDGE: PADRES
Rockies right-hander Josh Fogg has a winning 3-2 record versus the Padres despite carrying a 5.48 ERA. The right-hander has posted an even 1-1 record and 6.26 ERA against the Padres this year, giving up 10 earned runs and 24 hits over just 14 1/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES
Fogg is coming in off a tremendous September, posting a 3-0 record and 3.25 ERA in five starts. The Rockies have won four of his last five starts, but have outscored the opposition by just five runs over that span. EDGE: ROCKIES
The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Peavy’s last six road starts versus the Rockies.

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[pm530]

MLB
NL Wildcard Playoff Notes


Monday, October 1

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NL playoff race goes extra innings: Padres-Rockies in 1-game tiebreaker for final spot
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Jimmy Rollins backed up his boast and buoyed by a historic collapse, the Philadelphia Phillies can relax. Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres can hardly afford to rest - they've got a date at Coors Field.

A wild finish Sunday gave fans an extra treat: A one-game tiebreaker between the Padres and Colorado Rockies for the NL wild-card spot.

Hours after one final failure by the New York Mets gave the Phillies the NL East title, the Padres missed a chance to clinch the majors' last playoff slot. Now, they hope their All-Star ace can outpitch Josh Fogg on Monday night.

''I think the spirits and the mood right now is a little downtrodden, but we're going to get it up,'' Peavy said. ''I'm not going to let this happen tomorrow. I can promise you it'll be a new day, the boys will be excited. I mean, this is why we play the game.''

Oddsmakers have the Padres listed as -140 road favorites in the tiebreaker. The total is set at nine.

Had the Mets won, there would've been a lot more games. That would have left four teams tied with the same record, and caused a crazy three days of tiebreakers.

As it is, the wild-card winner opens the postseason Wednesday at Philadelphia. The same day, the Chicago Cubs start at Arizona in the other NL series.

The AL pairings already were set: The New York Yankees begin at Cleveland on Wednesday, then the Los Angeles Angels take on Boston at Fenway Park on Thursday.

''Obviously, they've got a lot of playoff experience, more than we've seen,'' Indians slugger Travis Hafner said. ''But it's a five-game series, and we feel good about our team.''

While the Padres lost 11-6 at Milwaukee, Colorado gave itself a chance by holding off Arizona 4-3.

This will be baseball's first one-game playoff since the Mets beat Cincinnati in 1999, and this wild-card winner starts the postseason Wednesday at Philadelphia.

The Phillies and Mets were tied for the NL East lead going into the final day of the regular season. But any drama was quickly drained when 300-game winner Tom Glavine gave up seven runs in the first inning to Florida at Shea Stadium.

''It's something that's going to take a while for us to get over,'' Glavine said after an 8-1 loss.

Rollins scored two runs as the Phillies took an early lead and beat Washington 6-1.

The Mets became the first team to blow a seven-game lead with only 17 games left. Rollins said before the season the Phillies were the team to beat - yet the MVP candidate couldn't have envisioned this ending.

''I'm no prophet, just a baseball player,'' Rollins said.

It made for a neat twist, at any rate. Earlier this year, the Phillies became the first team in history to post 10,000 losses. And their collapse in 1964, when they blew a 6 1/2-game lead with only 12 to play, is the stuff of baseball fables.

''I guess they can't say we were the worst team anymore,'' said Dennis Bennett, the Phils' opening-day starter on that infamous club.

The Phillies returned to the postseason for the first time since 1993. Star Ryan Howard jumped into the stands to celebrate, a couple of players showered fans with a water hose and longtime announcer Harry Kalas sang ''High Hopes'' over the public address system at Citizens Bank Park.

''There's only one more celebration to try and go for now and that's the whole thing,'' Howard said.

While the NL was fraught with tension, the AL was full of fun.

The Yankees, Angels, Red Sox and Indians also gave their regulars time to rest.

In Baltimore, catcher Jorge Posada took over the managing duties from Joe Torre for the day and guided the Yankees to a 10-4 win.

''Everybody had a pretty good time today,'' Torre said.

At Fenway, the Red Sox finished up with a 3-2 loss to Minnesota. There was good will all over the ballpark - the wives of Boston pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima sent Japanese sandwiches and desserts to the press box for the media.

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[pm530]

Baseball – In Depth Trends

MLB


Monday, October 1

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In Depth Trends
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Trends - San Diego at Colorado

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

W/L Trends

San Diego
Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.
Padres are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Padres are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 playoff games.
Padres are 7-0 in Peavy's last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Padres are 8-1 in Peavy's last 9 road starts.
Padres are 7-1 in Peavy's last 8 starts as a road favorite.
Padres are 5-1 in Peavy's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Padres are 5-1 in Peavy's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Padres are 13-3 in Peavy's last 16 starts vs. National League West.
Padres are 4-1 in Peavy's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 4-1 in Peavy's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 10-3 in Peavy's last 13 starts.
Padres are 10-3 in Peavy's last 13 starts on Grass.
Padres are 10-3 in Peavy's last 13 starts as a favorite.
Padres are 8-3 in Peavy's last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Padres are 5-2 in Peavy's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 43-19 in Peavy's last 62 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 9-4 in Peavy's last 13 Monday starts.
Padres are 5-11 in Peavy's last 16 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Colorado
Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rockies are 11-1 in their last 12 games following a win.
Rockies are 11-1 in their last 12 games as an underdog.
Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rockies are 24-6 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Rockies are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 games on Grass.
Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 overall.
Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. National League West.
Rockies are 28-10 in their last 38 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Rockies are 19-7 in their last 26 games as a home underdog.
Rockies are 38-15 in their last 53 home games.
Rockies are 44-18 in their last 62 vs. a team with a winning record.
Rockies are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rockies are 35-17 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rockies are 6-0 in Fogg's last 6 starts as a home underdog.
Rockies are 4-0 in Fogg's last 4 starts as an underdog.
Rockies are 4-0 in Fogg's last 4 starts vs. National League West.
Rockies are 4-0 in Fogg's last 4 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Rockies are 6-0 in Fogg's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Rockies are 10-1 in Fogg's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Rockies are 4-1 in Fogg's last 5 starts.
Rockies are 4-1 in Fogg's last 5 starts on Grass.
Rockies are 4-1 in Fogg's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rockies are 7-2 in Fogg's last 9 home starts.
Rockies are 6-2 in Fogg's last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Rockies are 2-5 in Fogg's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Rockies are 1-6 in Fogg's last 7 Monday starts.


OU Trends

San Diego
Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 vs. National League West.
Over is 6-1-1 in Padres last 8 overall.
Over is 6-1-1 in Padres last 8 on Grass.
Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 9-2 in Padres last 11 games as a road favorite.
Over is 4-1-1 in Padres last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 4-1-1 in Padres last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 7-2 in Padres last 9 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 24-8-2 in Padres last 34 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 12-4 in Padres last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 26-9-2 in Padres last 37 games following a loss.
Over is 19-7-1 in Padres last 27 road games.
Over is 13-5-1 in Padres last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2-2 in Padres last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-0-4 in Peavy's last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 road starts.
Under is 4-0-3 in Peavy's last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts as a road favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Peavy's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 12-3-1 in Peavy's last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 6-2 in Peavy's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2-1 in Peavy's last 8 Monday starts.
Over is 5-2 in Peavy's last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 13-6 in Peavy's last 19 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Colorado
Over is 10-4 in Rockies last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 7-3 in Rockies last 10 home games.
Over is 18-8-2 in Rockies last 28 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 6-1-1 in Fogg's last 8 starts a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 5-1 in Fogg's last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 9-2-1 in Fogg's last 12 starts a home underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Fogg's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Fogg's last 5 home starts.
Over is 12-3-1 in Fogg's last 16 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Fogg's last 5 starts vs. National League West.
Under is 4-1 in Fogg's last 5 starts as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Fogg's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Fogg's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.


Head to Head

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-1-1 in Peavy's last 6 road starts vs. Rockies.
Padres are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Colorado.
Padres are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.


Umpire Trends - Name unavailable
No trends available.

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[pm530]

Baseball – Wild Card Playoff Preview

MLB

Monday, October 1

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MLB Wild Card Playoff Preview
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Preview: Padres at Rockies

GAME: San Diego Padres (89-73) at Colorado Rockies (89-73)
DATE/TIME: Monday, October 01 - 7:37 PM ET
LINE: -140, 130 TOTAL: 9

Playoff Series: Tie Breaker; Series Tied 0-0

The San Diego Padres appear to have the right guy on the mound for a winner-take-all matchup. Judging by their production down the stretch, the Colorado Rockies seem to have the right lineup to face him.

Ace Jake Peavy gets the start Monday when the Padres meet the red-hot Rockies in a one-game playoff to determine the NL wild card winner. This is the first playoff to determine a postseason berth since the New York Mets blanked Cincinnati in 1999 to earn the wild card.

The winner of this contest advances to play NL East champion Philadelphia in a division series.

San Diego could have nailed down a postseason spot outright by winning either of its last two regular-season games. The Padres were one strike away from wrapping up a victory Saturday at Milwaukee, but all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman gave up a game-tying triple to Tony Gwynn Jr. in an eventual 4-3 loss in 11 innings.

San Diego also fell 11-6 on Sunday to the Brewers, and Colorado took advantage with a 4-3 victory over NL West champion Arizona. It was the Rockies' 13th in 14 games, and left them needing one more win to secure their first playoff berth since 1995.

"I don't think anything will help us tomorrow other than going out and getting hits off Jake Peavy," Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday said. "Everything's out the window. Tomorrow's one game.

"Everything in the last two weeks is in the past and now we've got to focus on beating the Padres for a chance to go to the playoffs."

San Diego rookie manager Bud Black's decision to hold back Peavy (19-6, 2.36 ERA) for a possible playoff rather than use him short rest Sunday turned out to be a fortuitous one. With a 10-1 record and 2.20 ERA in his last 13 starts, Peavy is a front-runner for NL Cy Young Award.

"I think the spirits and the mood right now is a little downtrodden, but we're going to get it up," Peavy said. "I'm not going to let this happen (Monday). I can promise you it'll be a new day, the boys will be excited. I mean, this is why we play the game."

The hard-throwing right-hander has turned in the best season of his six-year career, posting the majors' lowest ERA to go along with an NL-high 234 strikeouts. He's also the majors' best pitcher on the road, going 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 14 outings.

Peavy has no record and a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this year, but neither was at Coors Field - he's 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA in six career starts there.

"They're as good as anybody in baseball," Peavy said of the Rockies. "But they're definitely a beatable team."

They haven't been one recently as Colorado went a major league-best 20-8 in September, thanks mostly to a surging offense that scored an NL-leading 172 runs. The trio of NL MVP candidate Holliday, Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton all put together spectacular efforts at the plate over the final full month of the season to help the Rockies set up the showdown.

Holliday batted .367 with 12 homers, a team-high 30 RBIs and 29 runs in September. He also leads the NL with a .340 average, three points ahead of Atlanta's Chipper Jones. Atkins batted .390 with five homers, 17 RBIs and 19 runs.

It also was a special month for Helton, who had 20 RBIs and 21 runs to go with a .390 average. The 11-year veteran has never been to the postseason, but knows there's one more game to be played.

"We still haven't finished it," he said. "One hundred sixty-three games. It all comes down to tomorrow."

Helton is 12-for-35 (.343) in his career against Peavy, while Holliday is 6-for-15 (.400) and Atkins 5-for-15 (.333).

Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79) looks to defeat another top-notch starter when he gets the ball for Colorado. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA in his last six outings, including wins over San Diego's Chris Young and Arizona's Brandon Webb - the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.

In his last start, Fogg scattered five hits, walked three and struck out five in 6 2-3 innings Wednesday to lead the Rockies to a 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA in his career against San Diego, including 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three outings this season.

The Rockies went 10-8 against the Padres this season, including a three-game road sweep from Sept. 21-23 that was part of their late surge.

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