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Power Sweep College Selections
NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* FLORIDA ST over Georgia Tech - Since FSU joined the ACC, GT is 0-11 SU and 3-7-1 ATS vs them with an avg loss of 40-12 here. LY we won with a 4* Key Selection on Florida St at GT. FSU is in a Maryland/Colorado sandwich but won’t take the Jackets lightly after only winning the L/4 by an avg of 7.5 ppg. At home LW, GT upset Auburn 17-3 and their young, inexperienced D-line held the Tigers to just 40 yds rushing. QB Reggie Ball is avg 148 ypg (53%) and has been poised beyond his years. FSU QB Chris Rix is avg 230 ypg (60%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Greg Jones has 147 yds (6.7). PS#1 rFR Lorenzo Booker has 129 yds (7.2) but sprained his ankle LW vs MD (call a Northcoast Full Service Line for his status). Phil Steele called FSU a National Title contender in his magazine this year and they are just that with our #3 rated offense and #4 defense. They waxed a solid Maryland team as a 4H while a gutless Auburn team could not expose GT LW. FSU overpowers a shorthanded GT team and check out MD HC Friedgen’s comments on FSU’s depth in News and Notes. FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 41 Georgia Tech 3
3* Oregon over ARIZONA - Since 1994 Oregon has owned this series going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS. LY the Wildcats hung tough for a half but lost 31-14 as 8 pt HD’s being outgained 432-332. Under Belotti, Oregon is 12-6 ATS as AF’s, including 5-0 the L/3Y. The Ducks are 8-0 ATS on grass the L/3Y. Arizona is 3-14 ATS as a HD since 1995. The Wildcats are a poor 2-15 their L/17 Pac 10 HG’s with their only cover LY vs Wash St a misleading (outgained 424-217) final. We release very few 5*’s during the year and always like to note past 5*’s in a series. In 1986 we gave out Arizona (-8) over Oregon as our Free Sept 5* and they delivered a 41-17 win but this is a much different version of the Wildcats. The Ducks have surprised us with their ability to run the ball so far this year (386 yds, 4.2 ypc). Arizona’s DL has lost 6 players for various reasons since spring and had to move a true Fr OL over. The Cats home field “advantage” could actually be a negative and LW we won easily with a Late Phone Play on LSU in their rout which was 38-0 at the half. FORECAST: Oregon 38 ARIZONA 13
3* Purdue over WAKE FOREST - LY the Deacons became only the second unranked team to beat Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium since Tiller took over in 1997. Questionable officiating (Tiller sent tapes to Big 10 offices and officials were suspended after 23 calls were reviewed and 21 were ruled incorrect), poor placekicking (3 missed 4Q FG’s for PU), and five Boiler TO’s played a big part in Wake’s 24-21 win. Purdue is 6-12 ATS L/18 Sept road games. They are 1-8 ATS vs their L/9 non-Big 10 foes. Purdue’s defense is #21 in our rankings. The 248 yds rushing they allowed LY to WF was the most since the 2000 Rose Bowl but they now have studied the Wake option. Prior to LW’s game vs BG Tiller made reference to scheduling MAC opponents so PU can get the easy win and that was all BG needed to hear as they pulled off the 27-26 upset. WF has pulled two upsets (BC and #11 NCSt) but have been outgained by a 477-342 yard margin. LW’s results give us a LOT of line value (Purdue would have been a 7 to 10 pt fav if these two played LW) and Purdue is a Top 20 team while WF took advantage of two teams taking them lightly and won’t have that edge here. FORECAST: Purdue 30 WAKE FOREST 17
NCAA OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* S Carolina (+) over GEORGIA - Georgia was lucky to escape with a win in this one LY as S Car had a 371-294 yd edge. Twice SC fumbled inside the GA 2 and GA’s only TD was by the defense (see Past History). Holtz pointed out that the Virginia and Georgia losses LY were the 2 games that kept S Car out of a bowl, and S Car righted one of those LW with a decisive 31-7 home upset win over #15 ranked Virginia as our Northcoast Sportsline Complimentary Underdog Play. QB Dondrial Pinkins is avg 174 ypg (43%) with a 2-1 ratio. The fav is 5-1 ATS the L/6. The home team is 6-3 ATS the L/9. UGA WR Fred Gibson injured his hamstring LW but the team should get back some of the players who have been missing due to inj and susp including 2 key CB’s. Both teams have inexperienced O-lines and top-notch D-lines, so this should be a low scoring game. Pinkins did start at Florida and Clemson LY so he’s faced hostile crowds. SC did hold Greene & Co. to 11 of 22 for 169 yds and 0 TD’s LY. FORECAST: S Carolina (+) 16 GEORGIA 23
2* AKRON over E Michigan - LY EMU won 42-34 for their only win over an IA opponent. In 2001, Akron won a 3 OT game 65-62 (the highest scoring MAC game ever). Akron’s offense with 11 returning starters is led by QB Charlie Frye who is avg 390 ypg (71%) with a 4-2 ratio. The Zips only have IAA Howard on deck and are 0-2. In the Eagles opening game they lost their starting QB Jeff Crooks for the season with a broken leg. Backup QB Chinedu Okoro is averaging 216 ypg (59%) with a 2-1 ratio. They did lose last Thursday to IAA Western Illinois but keep in mind that WIU was ranked #1 in IAA in our Power Ratings. We rank EMU as the #117 team (out of 117 teams) in IA for the 2nd straight year. EM is overmatched here and Akron will be in a foul mood and take out early frustrations on the Eagles. FORECAST: AKRON 49 E Michigan 17
2* Notre Dame (+) over MICHIGAN - These 2 powers renewed their rivalry LY as the Irish edged the Wolves 25-23 as 5 pt HD’s in a game that featured some highly controversial non-calls by the refs (see Past History). The Irish’s win upped the dogs record in this incredibly entertaining series to a sterling 13-1-1 ATS. Willingham’s teams are 18-5 ATS when getting points the L/5Y, including bowls. The Irish get their first look at UM’s new FieldTurf surface & are 4-11 ATS on the fake stuff S/‘93. ND QB Carlyle Holiday worked on his passing touch in the offseason but hit for just 149 yds (62%) with a 1-1 ratio LW and was sacked 6 times behind an OL that had 5 new starters. ND successfully went with a TB rotation in their first game with Ryan Grant (98 yds) & Julius Jones (72 yds) which wore out the Cougars’ defense. The Irish missed preseason AA candidate LB Courtney Watson in the opener due to a suspension. QB John Navarre has his finest supporting cast to work with since he started the first 3 games of the year as a rFr in 2000 & is avg 191 ypg (51%) with a 3-1 ratio. He could be TY’s version of Carson Palmer and remember that many a Heisman campaign has been started with big performances against the Irish. RB Chris Perry leads the NCAA with 416 yds (8.5). Perry takes on a stout Irish defense that allowed WSU just 55 yds (1.8) rushing LW. ND ranks #6 on defense while UM is #9. Michigan is at home and rates the large edge on offense (#1-43). You would expect this to be a white knuckle-type of low scoring game but the L/3 meetings have avg 51 ppg. Michigan should be about a 7 pt fav but you cannot ignore the dogs dominance in this series and we will look at the dog if getting more than a FG. FORECAST: Notre Dame (+) 20 MICHIGAN 23
NCAA OTHER GAMES:
California at UTAH - The last time Cal played a Thursday Night game was in 1992 when they travelled to Kansas and upset the Jayhawks 27-23 as 6’ pt AD’s as the Thursday Night ESPN Play on Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline. Utah’s RB Brandon Warfield has 355 yds (5.1) and RB Marty Johnson could play this week and is just as good. QB Brett Elliott likely has a broken arm so make sure to call a Northcoast Full Service Line to check on all of Utah’s injuries. Cal is 18 pts away from being 3-0 and Tedford is doing a great job getting the maximum out of the talent on hand. This is the Thursday Night ESPN Play and is available after 5:00 pm ET on game day at 1-900-903-9467 or at the NCstore (www.ncsports.com). The Thursday Night ESPN Play is now 88-53 62% since 1991 including LY’s RED HOT 11-5 record! The Marquee Plays on Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline are an amazing 28-6 82% so far this year!!
Toledo at MARSHALL - This is a Friday Night game between the teams that have met in the MAC Championship game the L/2Y. Herd QB Stan Hill threw for 242 yds (67%) with a 3-1 ratio vs a tough Tenn defense LW. Hill did miss the L/3 series after bumping stomachs with an OL and twisting his knee. He should be ready to go this week (call a Northcoast Full Service Line for a full injury report). These teams have met 5 times since the Herd rejoined the MAC (3 times in the MAC Championship) and in those meetings the Herd is 3-2 SU but 1-3-1 ATS. In their only 2 regular season meetings the home team is 2-0 SU & ATS. The Rockets are led by QB Bruce Gradkowski who is avg 187 ypg (65%) with a 5-0 ratio. Marshall is 95-5 SU and 50-1 SU under HC Pruett when playing in Marshall Stadium but just 4-4-2 ATS the L/2Y. This is the Friday Night game and is available after 5:00 pm ET on Friday at 1-900-903-9467 or at the NCstore (www.ncsports.com). The Friday Night PPH Play is already 2-0 this year!!
SYRACUSE 37 Louisville 30 - UL is 2-0 ATS the L/2 times they have played in a dome the L/5Y (vs Tulane). Syr was just 1-2 ATS as a HF in 2002, but the Orangemen are 13-5 ATS S/’99 as a HF. Syr is 8-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in non-conf HG’s. The Cards are off of a bye with HG’s vs UTEP and Temple on deck and have that extra week to prep for the SU freeze option. They are 5-2 ATS in their L/7 vs BCS conf teams including 3-1 ATS as a dog with 2 outright upsets (#5 Florida St LY). Syr faced Louisville HC Bobby Petrino’s offense LY as they played Auburn (Petrino is a former OC there). The Orange beat NC 49-47 in 3 OT and RB Walter Reyes had 191 yds (6.8) and 3 TD’s. SU did allow 340 yds pass (71%) after allowing an NCAA worst 304 ypg pass LY and have three new starters in the secondary. UL has an inexperienced QB making just his second career start in a very loud venue. UL RB Eric Shelton (PS#3) ran for 151 yds (6.0) vs Kentucky. SU is 0-5 both SU & ATS following an OT game but this will be the first vs a non-BCS foe over that span. SU was 4-8 LY while UL was 7-6 but the Orangemen are more talented, are at home, and are much improved.
PITT 42 Ball St 0 - Due to a schedule change, BSU will bus to this game in an effort to save $50,000. Ball St faced their biggest opponent ever at home LW losing 35-7 to Missouri. In that game QB Andy Roesch (shoulder) did not play in the 4Q and is questionable for this one. The ground game is trying to replace RB Marcus Merriweather (all-time leading rusher). His replacement, Scott Blair, has 74 yds (3.4) but that is a big step down from Merriweather’s 4.9 ypc LY. They are 4-0 ATS vs Big East teams S/’89. Pitt is just 3-6 ATS as a HF at Heinz Field. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS the L/10 vs MAC opponents, and destroyed Kent St 43-3 LW as a 28 pt HF. Pitt QB Rod Rutherford did not start LW but played after 3 series (susp). We rank Pitt’s D #13 in the country. A shutout is certainly possible here. Ball St is 8-5 ATS as a DD AD S/’00 but we feel Pitt is a legitimate National Title contender this year and they should roll.
W VIRGINIA 28 Cincinnati 24 - WV is 11-0-1 SU all-time in this series. UC is 12-4 ATS their L/16 following a bye. LY we used WV as a 4* Late Phone Selection and they dominated even more than the final score indicated (see Past History). WV is 12-7 ATS as a HF S/’98, but the Bearcats are a super 17-7 ATS as an AD (5-0 ATS L/2Y). WV has a big game vs Maryland on deck and remember that MD embarrassed them LY. On the other hand, UC is off of a bye with Temple on deck. The L/2Y Cincy has played vs 4 BCS foes and they are 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS and those three losses were by a combined 12 points including their almost upset of eventual National Champ Ohio St. Both teams have already faced E Carolina and both rushed for 361 yds vs the lowly Pirates. Cincy is 9-1 ATS mark in their L/10 as a dog and a 7-1 ATS mark in their L/8 on the road. UC only allowed 296 ypg on the road LY. Both return 5 starters on offense and 4 on defense and have an experienced QB.
OHIO STATE 33 NC State 17 - Both teams got caught looking ahead to this week (see News and Notes). This is the same venue where Texas Tech QB Kliff Kingsbury & Wash St QB Jason Gesser’s Heisman aspirations went down in flames LY and NCS QB Philip Rivers hopes ride on this one. The Pack is a perfect 7-0 as a road dog under Amato and he is 3-0 SU & ATS vs Big 10 as HC at NCS. The Bucks’ defense has already taken on the prolific passing attacks of Washington & SDSt and held both offenses in check allowing 222 ypg (55.7%) with a 1-2 ratio. Rivers has hit for 377 ypg (81%) with a 6-2 ratio. NCSt had 3 offensive starters miss the WF game in LT Christopher Colmer, RB T.A. McLendon & WR Sterling Hicks. Check your Full Service Line this week for their status. OSU has rushed for just 131 ypg (3.3). QB Craig Krenzel had his worst game as a starter vs SDSt hitting just 5 of 20 for 76 yds. OSU did play without C Alex Stepanovich (ankle) while RB Lydell Ross (foot) saw limited action. LW the Pack allowed 202 yds (4.0) to WF but in their last 2 games of 2002 (FSU & ND) they allowed just 120 yds (2.0). Look for a much better effort from both teams this week and for OSU to grab an impressive home win.
MICHIGAN ST 38 La Tech 28 - First meeting. MSU has a huge game with rival Notre Dame on deck while LT is in their second straight AG with a large trip to league power Fresno St on tap. MSU is just 2-9 ATS as a HF the L/3Y. Their 3 homestand has been a test of the rebuilt Spartans’ secondary as they’ve allowed 300 ypg (54%) with a 4-4 ratio passing in the first 2 games. MSU’s top DT Brandon McKinney (ankle) was a late scratch LW & he is questionable for this one. MSU has only allowed 4 total yds rushing this year. Spartans’ QB Jeff Smoker has 675 yds (63.6%) with a 3-6 ratio in the new offense. WR Agim Shabaj (PS#33) has 234 yds (18.0). LT shouldn’t be intimidated by the venue as they regularly take on the big boys with trips to Penn St, Texas A&M, Clemson, Kan St, Auburn and Miami (FL) in the L/4Y. They are 4-7 ATS their L/11 on the road vs BCS foes and 1-5 ATS as a DD dog. In 2002, LT was 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS away from Ruston. LT QB Luke McCown gives them backdoor potential, especially with the Irish on deck for MSU. LT’s pass efficiency D ranks 36th so they are playing surprisingly well defensively.
WISCONSIN 48 Unlv 21 - LY these two drew 42,075, which was the largest crowd at a sporting event ever in the state of Nevada. The game was stopped with 7:41 left in the 4Q due to a power outage (see Past History). The Badgers have won the L/3 in this series by an avg margin of 43-10. UW is just 4-11 ATS vs non-conf foes S/‘99. They’ve also been poor HF’s going 4-13 ATS S/‘99. We feel Wisky has a shot at the Rose Bowl this year, and in their past Rose Bowl years they avg 45 ppg at home vs non-conf teams. LW the Badgers held off Akron 48-31 at Camp Randall. It was the first time in Wisconsin’s 114 year history that they had a WR and RB both top 200 yards in the same game. Jim Sorgi is avg 248 ypg (58%) with a 3-0 ratio. RB Anthony Davis has 414 total yds (7.0) while WR Lee Evans has 16 rec (17.8). UNLV (1-1) lost LW to Kansas 46-24 giving up 546 yds. They still have some players that have to sit out due to suspensions. QB Kurt Nantkes is avg 242.5 ypg (62%) with a 3-3 ratio. RB Larry Croom has 225 yds (6.1). Wisky’s defense allowed 372 yds passing LW vs Akron. UNLV WR Earvin Johnson (PS#20) was suspended in the opener but returned LW. Look for UW to roll it up at home.
TEXAS 27 Arkansas 14 - It is good to see these former SWC teams renew their rivalry. The last meeting between these two was in the 1999 Cotton Bowl in which UA surprised Texas 27-6 as 5’ pt dogs. UA is off an easy home win vs Tulsa (led 28-3 at half and rested starters) and only has N Texas on deck, while Texas is off a bye and only has Rice on deck. Texas is 14-5-1 ATS after a bye. UA is 7-3 ATS as a dog the L/3Y. Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in their 1st road game. The most intriguing matchup here will feature the Hogs’ #4 secondary vs the Horns #1 set of rec’s. New UT QB Chance Mock hit 7 of 15 for 156 yds and RB Cedric Benson didn’t fulfill his preseason promise of massive improvement as he only rushed for 40 yds (3.3) in the rout of NMSt. On the other side, forever underachieving UA RB Cedric Cobbs finally whipped himself into shape in the offseason and lived up to his potential rushing for 145 yds (12.1)!! Of course the rush yds will be a bit tougher to come by this week vs the Longhorns as Texas held the option based Aggies to 150 rush yds (2.7). Ark is a surprising 5-1 SU and ATS their L/6 road trips. Texas is one of the top teams in the country ranking #5 on offense and #3 on D but the Hogs are #13 and #19, so they have the talent to make a game of this.
Iowa 23 IOWA ST 20 - LY’s game marked the only regular season loss for the Hawks as they ‘blew’ a 24-7 halftime lead (see Past History). That lead for the Hawks was actually their first in this series since ‘97 to show how much the fortunes have changed in this series. Hayden Fry’s version of the Hawks owned the Cyclones (15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS vs them from ‘83-’97). McCarney, a former assistant under Fry, has turned the tide the L/5Y with a 5-0 SU & ATS record vs his alma mater. ISU has outrushed Iowa 196-116 ypg & outgained them overall 413-307 ypg. Iowa is 3-6 ATS in their first road trip and they have a young QB and only 1 starter back on the OL. Both of these teams are off easy games with MAC teams and while ISU has a bye next week (7-3 ATS L/10 prior to a bye) Iowa has Arizona St on deck. Iowa’s two-time All Big 10 SS Bob Sanders (foot) & Iowa St’s Preseason All Big 12 DE Tyson Smith (leg) are both out. ISU did allow option-oriented Ohio to pass for its most yds S/‘93 (237 yds) prompting McCarney to say after the game that he couldn’t stand to even think about looking at the game tape. Iowa has the edges offensively (#49-63), defensively (#28-76) & on special tms (#1-57). Iowa St, however, owns the Hawkeyes, have a young offense making their first road start and is much better at home where they outscored foes 39-17 LY while losing on the road by a 38-19 avg.
Rutgers 34 ARMY 24 - The dog is 6-3 ATS in the L/9 in this series. Army has 6 straight non-covers as a non-conf HD. LY Army was without starting QB Reggie Nevels and they lost 44-0 as a 4 pt AF in Rutgers’ only win of the year. Four Army TO’s led to 28 Rutgers points as Army was shutout for the first time S/’89. Rutgers has only been an AF once in the L/7Y, and won that game in 2001 SU & ATS as a 15 pt AF at Buffalo. Rutgers is just 3-16 ATS on artificial turf. LY the Scarlet Knights played well on the road vs perennial powerhouse Tennessee and LW they managed a cover at Mich St as the Inside Info Play on Phil Steele’s PPH. RU QB Ryan Hart is avg 246 ypg (56%) with a 3-2 ratio and Army is off of a 48-21 loss to UConn. Nevels was benched in favor of Zac Dahman LW. Way back in 1984 we won with a rare 4’* on Army in this series and although the dog has had success here, we feel that Rutgers is simply a much stronger team and will call for them to roll.
Minnesota 38 OHIO 13 - The last time these 2 met OU pulled the shocking 23-17 outright upset as 20 pt dogs in the Metrodome in 2000. This is a rare HG vs a BCS team for the Bobcats so the home crowd will be pumped. UM should be prepared as their last trip to a MAC stadium was a 38-7 season opening loss to Toledo in 2001. Ohio’s offense returns just 4 starters led by a two QB system with Sr Fred Ray & Jr Ryan Hawk, a transfer from Miami, and avg 161 rush and 159 pass. OU had just 1 returning starter on the line, OG Brian Brown, who is now out 2-5 weeks with an ankle injury, while Minny returns 6 of its front 7. The Gophers are 2-0 ATS as a DD fav this year. Minny also has quite a number of Ohioans on the roster (11) and they do not play OSU in the next 2 years. OU is 3-1 ATS as a HD the L/4Y. Minnesota’s offense has avg almost 500 ypg and they put the hammer down in games like this with a 11-4 ATS mark in non-conf play.
Virginia 27 WESTERN MICHIGAN 17 - The Cavs travel to Kalamazoo where they’ll play just their 2nd game on artificial turf S/’95 (a 26-17 loss at Wisky in 2001 as 10 pt AD’s). UVA’s young QB faces a veteran Broncos’ secondary that was #65 in our pass D rankings LY. The Cavs are only 2-4 ATS the last 6 as an AF. Gary Darnell sports a 23-8 home record entering 2003 but the only other time the Broncos have hosted a BCS team they were spanked 30-0 by Virg Tech LY. WM is only 1-5 SU and ATS as a HD. Both clubs have a bye next week. WM QB Chad Munson is avg 392 ypg (63.5%) with an 8-2 ratio. UVA is on a 2nd straight road trip and lost to S Car 31-7 LW, as with QB Matt Schaub out frosh Anthony Martinez was rattled (54 yds, 50%, 2 int) in his 1st road start. The Cavs are talented and have our #37 rated offense and #35 defense while WM is just #92 and #94 and should be able to get the SU win.
COLORADO 24 Wash St 20 - CU has a heightened altitude advantage being in the Rocky Mountain State a 3rd straight week. The Cougars are off of a tough road loss in South Bend. WSU is 11-2 ATS the L/4Y on grass. They are 7-2 ATS the L/4Y as an AD and are 6-2 ATS off of a loss. New CU QB Joel Klatt has thrown for 280 ypg (66%) with a 5-0 ratio. WSU Sr QB Matt Kegel has been workmanlike throwing for 191 ypg (57%) with a 2-2 ratio. For a team that has used a thundering ground attack in the past, the Buffs are only avg 95 yds on the ground vs 280 in the air. In the meantime the traditionally high flying Cougars have rushed for 394 yds and thrown for 401. CU lost its top pass rusher DE Marques Harris for the season. The Cougars have a little more talent (#32 vs #64 off, #23 vs #34 D) but Colorado has a good sized situational and coaching edge and gets the home win.
Kansas 33 WYOMING 30 - The Cowboys last played the Jayhawks in a rescheduled game in 2001, their first meeting S/‘72. Kansas won 27-14 as 4 pt favs. KU had a 451-286 total yd edge and sacked Casey Bramlet 5 times. Wyoming is 6-1 ATS when hosting a Big 12 team. KU just faced a MWC team LW and won 46-24 vs UNLV. The Hawks are 12-29 ATS away from home S/‘94. KU’s JUCO all-star team on defense may start to gel in time for the Big 12 schedule. So far it’s allowed 444 ypg & 26 ppg. Hawks’ QB Bill Whittemore has stayed in the pocket more in his 2nd season in Mangino’s system and has thrown for 255 ypg (58%) with a 4-2 ratio (75 rush). Kansas did win as an AF at Tulsa LY, their only time in that role the L/3Y. RB Clark Green has 196 yds (5.4) while WR Mark Simmons is avg 28.5 ypc. WY QB Bramlet is avg 254.5 ypg (52%) with a 4-0 ratio. Kansas is the more talented team and gets a close SU win on the road.
USC 38 Hawaii 17 - The last time these two met was in 1999 when the Trojans travelled to the Islands in the opener and rolled 62-7 as 26’ pt AF’s. This is a much different scenario as Hawaii is now in the fifth year of the June Jones regime and the fast paced run & shoot offense as compared to their first game under a new coach. USC is 3-9 ATS the L/4Y against non-conf foes. As a HF USC had gone 3-12 ATS from 1999-2001 but are 4-3 the L/2Y. USC has next week off. This will be the toughest defense Hawaii has seen since Alabama held them to 16 pts at home LY. UH is 7-3 ATS as an AD and 10-5 ATS on the road under HC Jones. They are also 17-8 ATS overall as a dog and a perfect 7-0 ATS on grass. UH is 3-2 ATS in their L/5 vs BCS foes but all of those games were in Honolulu and they still lost by an avg of 23 ppg. A key here should be the Warriors young OL having to face the Trojans “Wild Bunch II” DL, something that should give QB Timmy Chang (who was susp for the opener) problems all day. USC QB Matt Leinart has thrown for 427 yds (56%) with a 4-3 ratio. TB Hershel Dennis has only rushed for 125 yds (3.3). Before LW’s non-covering win over BYU, the Trojans had won 8 straight ATS with the L/4 covering by a total of 89 pts.
DUKE 27 Rice 17 - These non-conf foes have met twice recently with the home team winning each time SU and the Blue Devils covering both as a dog. Both were also close, low scoring affairs (‘92 Duke 17-12, ‘01 Rice 15-13). Rice is 2-6 ATS in their L/8 road games and 14-25 ATS on grass. Duke is 0-5 SU & ATS as a fav S/’99. Rice is off of a bye. In 2001 Duke held Rice’s option to just 154 yds on 57 carries (2.7). The Devils have our #40 defense and Rice is #107. Duke has 20 returning starters as compared to just 10 for the Owls. Duke really disappointed us in their first game losing to Virginia 27-0 but beat a IAA team LW. Rice lost their season opener to Houston 48-14 being outgained 440-242. Duke is the stronger team but can’t be trusted to lay too many as a rare fav and Rice plays hard every week.
ALABAMA 31 Kentucky 21 - The home team is 5-0 ATS the L/5 in this series but these two haven’t met S/’97. These teams both have new head coaches coaching their first career SEC games. Bama is off of a tough home loss to #1 Oklahoma. Both teams are starting to feel the effects of probation and both have depth problems due to the loss of scholarships and attrition from the coaching changes. UK blamed their loss at Louisville partially on the scholarship reductions. New UK OC Ron Hudson vowed to scale back the offense he brought with him from K-St because the team struggled vs Louisville, but the offense stalled early LW and only accumulated 308 total yds vs IAA Murray St. If Bama has a weak spot on defense, it could be their pass D which has allowed 243 ypg (57%) with a 3-1 ratio and now they face QB Jared Lorenzen who is avg 217 ypg (62%) with a 6-2 ratio. UK also has a sneaky advantage on special teams (#3 vs #70). UK is 6-1 ATS their L/7 on the SEC road with 3 SU wins and only one loss by more than 14. Bama has to be a little letdown after LW, but UK has to prove capable of performing at this level under Brooks but is in a great situation.
Auburn 20 VANDERBILT 17 - The home team is 8-0-1 ATS in this series. Vandy hasn’t beaten Auburn SU since 1955, but in Nashville 2 years ago Vandy did have an 18-13 FD edge and was at the Aub 26 yd line with :37 left. Instead of kicking the FG to tie, former HC Widenhofer elected to go for it, and the Commodores were stopped. LY’s game was played in pouring rain and windy conditions. The FD’s were even at 19, but Aub outgained Vandy 378-290 and won 31-6 as 20’ pt HF’s thanks to TWO defensive TD’s. Vandy is 5-2-1 as a HD, and almost beat Ole Miss here 2 weeks ago. Vandy has lost 19 consecutive SEC games SU. The Commodores are 13-7-1 ATS as a DD HD. Auburn comes into this game in total disarray. The team that was ranked #6 in the AP poll coming into the season is now 0-2 and hasn’t scored a TD yet. QB Jason Campbell has been sacked 13 times. The talented RB’s haven’t found running room as the team is avg just 42 rush ypg (1.1). Vandy QB Jay Cutler is avg 217 ypg (60%) with a 3-1 ratio. VU is avg 193 ypg rush (4.0), and meanwhile the defense has only allowed 232 total ypg and 15 ppg. Take the scrappy home team vs the underperforming Tigers.
MIAMI (FL) 55 E Carolina 6 - The Pirates are 2-8 SU but 5-1-1 ATS in this series. EC has actually won SU the L/2 meetings (‘99 & ‘96) and are 2-1 ATS in this series as a DD AD winning their last trip HERE by a 31-6 margin! They are however just 5-14-1 ATS as a DD dog since 1992. UM is off a huge comeback win vs rival Florida and has a trip to BC on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them. Against the Gators, Miami trailed 33-10 in the 3Q before going on a 28 point run led by Florida transfer Brock Berlin (PS#1), to win the game 38-33 as a 14 pt HF. EC has lost their two games by a combined 88-10 margin. They are allowing 361 ypg rush (6.9) and 522 ypg total defense. This is a mismatch and Miami can name the score.
S MISSISSIPPI 20 Memphis 13 - S Miss has dominated this series going 10-1 SU the L/11 and the L/5 at “The Rock” they have outscored Memphis by a 138-20 margin! Memphis did get their lone win in 2001 thanks to a 5-0 TO edge. Memphis has had just 10 FD’s vs SM each of the L/2Y and in their 2001 upset had drives totaling 20 yds produce 19 of their 22 points. SM’s RB Derrick Nix who rushed for 523 yds in his career vs Memphis including 175 LY is missed as they are avg just 91 ypg rush (2.2) so far TY. SM had a 31-10 FD edge LY in their 33-14 win at home. SM had a couple of extra days to prep and have a bye next week. This is their home opener and they are 15-9 ATS at home since 1997. In their last game SM beat UAB 17-12 as a 3 pt AF (see Misleading Finals). Memphis is making their 1st road trip with a young OL (just 1 starter back) vs an aggressive blitzing defense that features a top-notch DL. They are off of a huge upset beating Ole Miss 44-34 as an 8 pt HD where they had a 506-408 yd edge. UM RB DeAngelo Williams has 196 yds rush (4.7) and 8 rec (20.8) and he has already scored 6 TD’s. QB Danny Wimprine is just 23 of 49 (47%) for 128 ypg in 2 meetings vs SM but so far this season he is avg 311 ypg (62%) with a perfect 5-0 ratio.
OKLAHOMA 30 Fresno St 6 - First ever meeting. FSU is 1-5 SU & 3-2 ATS (3-0 L/3) vs the Big 12. FSU is 6-2 ATS in their L/8 as an AD and 20-11 ATS as a dog overall. In their L/10 games vs BCS foes FSU is 5-5 SU & 9-1 ATS. Three of those 4 SU losses were by a combined 9 points with their only blowout loss coming at the hands of Oreg St in a rare revenge situation LY. FSU got revenge for that loss LW by notching the upset of the Beavers as our Friday Night Play. In that game FSU’s defense forced OSU QB Derek Anderson into 5 int but was outgained 406-336. FSU triggerman QB Jeff Grady has struggled and now faces our top ranked secondary. Paul Pinegar remains ? for this one so check your Full Service Line this week for his status. The FSU OL lost their only returning starter in Aug & now faces DT Tommie Harris & Co. The Bulldogs managed just 4 FD’s & 117 total yds vs a defense in this class at Tennessee. OU QB Jason White has shaken off the injury bug to pass for 254 ypg (63%) with a 5-1 ratio. As expected OU’s defense has been the nation’s best allowing just 92 ypg (2.7) rushing & 137 ypg (46%) passing with a 1-3 ratio this year & 8 sacks. OU is off of a thrilling win in Tuscaloosa and have UCLA on deck so this could be a flat spot for them. They are just 2-6 ATS their L/8 Sept HG’s. OU is 4-8 ATS their L/12 as a HF of 14+ pts.
BAYLOR 23 Smu 20 - These former SWC foes are just 88 miles apart & have not faced one another since the formation of the Big 12 conference. The Bears have won and covered each of the L/7 meetings. They are also 2-0 ATS in the history of the series as a HD. SMU is 7-4 ATS following a bye. The Ponies have struggled on the road in September going 0-13 SU & 2-10-1 ATS their L/13. Baylor is 17-10 ATS at home in September since 1985. SMU is just 11-19 ATS in their L/30 as a fav. BU has been a HF just 4 times in the L/4Y (3-1 ATS). While both offenses rank near the bottom in our ratings, SMU does rate an edge on D at #73 (BU #109) and has a huge edge on special teams at #49 (BU #116). Two weeks ago, Baylor delivered on the Big Dog Play of the Week on the Private Play Hotline vs UAB. LW Baylor’s young OL was overwhelmed by a great NT DL on the road. BU RB Rashad Armstrong left LW’s game and did not return. SMU has lost two key players this year on offense, TB ShanDerrick Charles and WR Chris Cunningham. SMU lost to TT 58-10 in their opener. The Bears should get the win at home.
Miss St 35 TULANE 34 - Miss St is 5-0 SU and ATS vs Tulane since 1989, but the last meeting was in 1994. Tulane is 4-9 ATS the L/13 vs non-conf. Miss St hasn’t been an AF since 2000 and is 1-4 ATS as a fav the L/3Y. Tulane is 3-1 the L/4 as a HD and 6-2 ATS the L/8 overall as a dog. Miss St has only played 1 regular season game on artificial turf in the L/4Y, a 36-13 SU and ATS loss at Oregon LY. Tulane has dropped 3 in a row both SU & ATS vs BCS foes by an average margin of 49-12. Tulane faced a tough IAA matchup LW vs #18 ranked Northwestern St who they were forced to play on a short week after facing TCU on Labor Day. They barely escaped with a 3 pt win in OT, but the offense ran smoothly with 436 total yds. Tulane was more impressive vs TCU who they played pretty much even up before losing in 2 OT’s. QB JP Losman has avg 328 ypg (60%) with a 6-3 ratio. MSU had a disappointing opener as they fell behind Oregon 28-0, and went on to lose 42-34 on their home field while allowing 556 yds. Tulane was +22 in TO’s while Miss St was -15 LY and despite MSU’s 3-8 record LY actually outgained foes by 13 ypg. In a close matchup, we’ll lean with the dog.
NEBRASKA 38 Penn St 6 - PSU treated us to a 4* Late Phone Play & Underdog Play of the Week Winner in their huge 41-7 outright upset of the Huskers LY in Happy Valley in which Paterno used his secret weapon, QB Mike Robinson, in a ‘slash’ role & he burned the Huskers for 3 TD’s. It was just the 7th night game at Happy Valley. This is the Lions’ 1st venture to Lincoln since their historic ‘81 matchup. PSU is off of a tough loss to BC while NU just had Utah St LW. LY’s contest marked the 1st road start in NU QB Jammal Lord’s career and he threw for just 75 yds with 3 int in a losing cause. PSU QB Zack Mills hit 19 of 31 for 259 yds vs NU LY but has struggled throwing for just 119 ypg (50%) with a 7-8 ratio over the L/8 games. Paterno benched Mills LW in the 3Q but the more mobile Robinson has also been ineffective (31%) behind a very inexperienced OL which allowed Mills to get hit an estimated 15-20 times. Paterno said after the BC game that there is no QB controversy & Mills will get the start in Lincoln. PS#16RB true frosh Austin Scott looks like he has taken over the TB job rushing for 129 yds (5.9). The Lions are 6-1 as an AD the L/2Y. NU is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS their L/9 meetings vs the Big 10 scoring an avg of 50.5 ppg in their 8 wins. The Blackshirts proved in their season opening win 2 weeks ago that they are back under new DC Pelini holding OSU to 183 total yds & 11 FD’s in a 3* Late Phone Winner for us. Penn St is rebuilding along both lines and that is a very bad situation vs the powerful Husker lines. This is a rare game where revenge is a factor.
N MEXICO 26 Byu 23 - BYU is an impressive 20-2 SU (4-9 ATS L/13). LY NM won at BYU for the first time since 1971 when Rocky Long was the team’s QB. QB Matt Berry had an awful day for BYU with 81 yds (35%) with an 0-2 ratio. He was complaining of stomach problems and vomited at halftime. BYU’s DC is Bronco Mendenhall, who was NM’s DC the L/5Y. Both teams are using his schemes and he knows the NM personnel. This will be BYU’s second straight AG. N Mex is 10-4 ATS at home vs MWC foes. NM almost upset BYU’s 2001 team here in Albuquerque and that BYU team opened the year 11-0 and scored 44.1 ppg. That year NM’s defense held Crowton’s offense to its regular season low ypg (365) and LY BYU had just 188 total yds. Berry is avg 287 ypg (68%) with a 4-4 ratio and just faced the USC D LW. RB Marcus Whalen looks to be out again this week while Reynaldo Brathwaite has 112 yds (5.3). NM lost 42-28 at Texas Tech LW, but outgained them 584-456. Casey Kelly is avg 257 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB D.D. Cox had 187 yds (6.9) with 3 TD’s LW. These are two quality teams but NM is very tough at home and gets the SU win.
UCLA 27 Illinois 20 - This is the Bruins home opener and they have opened their home season 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS the L/9Y. IL is 5-2 ATS their L/7 when visiting Pac 10 opponents. The Illini are off of a 49-22 breezer vs IAA Illinois St but is not expected to have 2 starters for this game in FB Carey Davis (10 rec in opener) & DE Mike O’Brien (knee injury). UCLA has a trip to #1 Oklahoma on deck & are off of HC Dorrell’s debut, a SU win but spread covering loss vs Colorado. The Illini are 5-2 as an AD the L/2Y and are a terrific 14-6-1 ATS on grass since ‘97. Illini QB Jon Beutjer has thrown for 246 ypg (70%!) with a 5-1 ratio now takes on a Bruin secondary which we rate #7. Illinois game vs Missouri was a misleading loss as they had a decided 411-223 yardage advantage and should be 2-0 here. UCLA’s starting QB Matt Moore was inj in the 1Q LW, but the #2 is Drew Olson who had finished 2002 as the starter. As noted the Bruins have a top flight D and held a CU team that had 504 yds of offense the week prior vs CSU to only 245 LW on their home field.
San Diego St 27 UTEP 17 - Matt Dlugolecki (PS#56) was forced to start vs Ohio St and hit 23 of 39 for 189 yds with just an 0-2 ratio. SDSt is 0-1-1 as an AF the L/4Y but had a 20-10 FD edge vs the powerful Buckeyes in Columbus. UTEP had a IAA foe LW in Cal Poly and lost 34-13 in a must win situation. The two QB’s at UTEP, Orlando Cruz and Jordan Palmer, threw for a disappointing 141 yds with 2 int. LY UTEP allowed 362 ypg at home and yielded 495 ypg on the road but after an 11-4 mark at home from ‘98-’00 they are just 2-6 ATS there the L/3Y. In their first 3 HG’s of the year (before their lack of depth pops up) UTEP is 11-3 SU the L/5Y (only count 2 games in ‘00 due to reschedule) and 9-3 ATS including 4 outright upsets. After LW’s disparate results, we might side with the dog if the linesmaker overcompensates. The Aztecs go from hunter to hunted.
Boston College 27 UCONN 24 - LY The Huskies led 16-3 at one point and later were down by 1 when they gave up an int in their own territory which BC was able to turn into 7 pts. The Eagles won the game 24-16 but failed to cover as a 33 pt HF. This will be a BE matchup next year. UConn is 2-0 SU and ATS with covers by 15 ppg and did it without their top tackler from LY, LB Maurice Lloyd who was injured vs Indiana. This will be only their 2nd game in their new stadium. QB Dan Orlovsky is avg 312 ypg (67%) with an 8-3 ratio and RB Terry Caulley has 268 yds (6.7). This is a short trip for BC and you can be sure BC HC O’Brien is aware of the recruiting implications of this game. UConn is 4-1 ATS as a HD the last 3 years. BC usually takes care of business vs weaker teams. BC upset Penn St LW. LY after BC pulled their huge upset of Notre Dame, they came out flat the next week and lost by 10 at WV. BC QB Quinton Porter is avg 194 ypg (53%) with a 4-1 ratio. RB Derrick Knight has 300 yds (5.4) in the first 2 games TY. BC has Miami on deck. UConn is 4-1 ATS vs BE teams when not playing Temple, the team they are scheduled to replace. BC is just 1-5 ATS as a non-conf AF.
AIR FORCE 26 N Texas 16 - First meeting, Homecoming. NT’s defense did have trouble with the option LY allowing N Mex St 440 yds but 335 of that was through the air. NT has an excellent D-line that should be able to get penetration and 3 veteran LB’s to work vs the option. This is Air Force’s best team in a long time but after facing a couple of cream puff defenses they now take on our #38 rated group. LW N Texas forced 6 Baylor TO’s in a 52-14 victory but AF should be more disciplined. LW we went against AF with Northwestern as the Underdog Play of the Week on these pages. AF QB Chance Harridge was ejected LW for throwing a punch in frustration and may possibly be suspended for this one (check status). The Falcons are avg 325 ypg rush.
CLEMSON 27 Middle Tenn 17 - First meeting. Since jumping to IA four years ago MTSU has proven that it’s a program to be reckoned with! They’ve taken on the entire SEC, Illinois, Arizona, and Maryland (all on the road) and are 11-5 ATS as an AD including covers against Alabama and Kentucky LY and Georgia this year. MT was outyarded 467-240 LW and got their only TD on a 71 yd bomb with 2:09 left. Clemson was uninspiring in a 28-17 win over Furman allowing 108 yards and 10 pts in the 4Q. This will be Clemson’s 3rd straight HG before traveling to their 1st league game vs GT next week. Clemson is just 8-12-2 ATS as a fav the L/3Y and 3-9 ATS their L/12 as a DD fav. Both teams lost to Georgia but MT was more impressive and should make a game of this.
Boise St 45 IDAHO 17 - Boise is 5-1 ATS both SU and ATS vs the Vandals the L/4Y but failed to cover LY only winning 38-21 (-23). BSU has outscored the Vandals by an avg of 49-18 in the L/4 meetings. LW the Vandals were beaten by IAA E Wash, 8-5. The usually porous Idaho defense has improved somewhat allowing just 16.5 ppg and 355 ypg through 2 games but the Michael Harrington led offense (Brian Lindgren lost job prior to year) has been nonexistent. This is BSU’s road opener with a trip to Oregon St on deck. BSU was 5-0 ATS as an AF LY and they are 20-7 ATS in their L/27 as chalk overall. The Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their L/12 road games. These instate rivals used to be in the Big West together and always used to meet in the season finale in what was their biggest game of the year. Boise won their last game here, 45-13, with only a 537-484 yard edge in total offense. Idaho did stay within 25 of Wash St on the road but Boise is hungrier.
OREGON ST 48 N Mexico St 24 - Oregon St has one of the toughest home fields in the country and are 10-1 ATS their L/11 Sept HG’s. Ironically when Riley took over here in 1997 the team ran the option and he switched them out of it and now they face an option team. NMSt runs the same option offense that Nebraska does. The Aggies are just 1-9 ATS their L/10 road games and 2-6 ATS vs BCS teams. These two did meet in Las Cruces in 2001 and the Aggies covered only losing 27-22 as a 16’ pt HD. The Aggies D held Texas RB Cedric Benson to 40 yds (3.3) and the Longhorns scored 28 pts off of a KR, 2 int & a 15 yd drive. OSU QB Derek Anderson had a terrible game vs Fresno St (34%, 5 int). Anderson has fared well, however, vs lesser opponents as LY in their 1st 3 games vs E Ken, Temple & UNLV he threw for 987 yds (67%) with a 12-0 ratio. OSU does have the Pac 10’s top RB, Steven Jackson, to fall back on and he has rushed for 257 yds (4.5). Their run D has been stingy so far this season only allowing a total of 121 ypg (1.8). We give the edge to an outstanding home team here.
UAB 34 Troy St 20 - TSU is travelling 147 miles by bus to UAB. LY Troy dominated this game with a 26-11 FD and 425-223 yard edge (TSU has avg 236.4 ypg vs all other IA teams). However 7 TO’s and a missed xp saw them lose 27-26 as a 1’ pt AD in their first IA meeting. This is Troy’s 3rd straight road game. The Trojans will be going up against their former DC, Wayne Bolt, who bolted after last season to take over as UAB’s DC. TSU is avg just 164 ypg total offense while allowing 430 ypg but that was vs Kan St and Minny. QB Hansell Bearden has just 52 ypg (42%) with an 0-1 ratio and LW they actually played 3 QB’s. UAB lost 17-12 as a 3 pt HD to S Miss (see Misleading Finals). UAB QB Darrell Hackney is a Steve McNair clone (6-2 235) who is avg 250 ypg (55%) with a 3-0 ratio and RB Bo Moncur has 214 yds (6.5). UAB is much more experienced this year and should win legitimately this time.
MISSISSIPPI 45 UL Monroe 17 - Ole Miss is 7-16 ATS as a HF since 1998 and comes off a 2 game road trip with a bye on deck. LY was the first meeting since ULM moved up to Div IA and ULM covered 3-31 as 31’ pt AD, but were outgained 378-228. This is the Rebs home opener which means it will be the first game on their new AstroPlay field. Recently Ole Miss has had trouble stopping the run but this year the culprit has been the secondary which has been shredded by Vandy and Memphis in B2B weeks. ULM was one of LW’s rash of IAA upset victims bowing to Stephen F Austin at home, 23-21. The Indians are 5-6 ATS vs the SEC being outscored by an avg of 44-8. Ole Miss is 2-6 ATS vs Sun Belt teams. ULM has exciting QB Steven Jyles but he is hitting just 48% and Ole Miss needs a win to regain confidence. The Ole Miss D is allowing 452 ypg and that could leave the backdoor open.
Houston 27 LOUISIANA-LFT 13 - The Cajuns are 0-4 SU & ATS vs the Cougars in this series since 1992 and in fact they are just 2-15 SU & 5-11 ATS vs CUSA teams since 1996. UH is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their history vs SBC foes. Houston won 36-17 (-9) LY but only had a 381-362 yard edge. UH did lead 36-10 and gave up a late 78 yard TD pass which evened out the yds. The Cajuns are coming off a loss 34-3 to LA Tech as a 4 pt HD which counted as their conference opener. The offense, which returned 6 starters, has averaged 280 ypg vs 2 tough defenses. UH is 6-12 ATS in their L/18 road games. They are 6-16 ATS as a fav. ULL got a 34-0 win over UAB LY. Houston is 0-2 ATS in the rare role of an AF the L/4Y losing SU each time but are the stronger team and frosh QB Kevin Kolb will be a much better QB after facing the Michigan D in front of 100,000 plus LW. ULL stayed within 7 of S Car but that was with Holtz sandbagging it with Virginia on deck.
ARIZONA ST 48 Utah St 20 - ASU HC Koetter has a big time belief in winning on one’s home field. At Boise St he had a 16-3 SU (10-2 ATS) record and has continued that trend here going 9-5 SU (8-5 ATS). The Aggies are coming off a 31-7 loss at Nebraska as a 32 pt AD which could have been far worse (see News and Notes). This is the final game of a 3 game season opening road trip for USU. USU is 1-5 ATS since 1996 losing by an avg score of 39-12 vs the Pac 10. They are led by new starting QB Travis Cox who is avg 229 ypg (49%) with a 2-2 ratio. He completed 10 of his first 11 attempts LW vs Nebraska. ASU only had IAA N Arizona LW but has a big road game vs Iowa next week. They are 2-0 ATS vs current Sun Belt teams the L/4Y including a 44-20 win over Utah St in 2000 (-21’).
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 19 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 152-84 64%! Last year the Underdog Play of the Week added another 4 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is the Underdog Play for this week:
NORTHWESTERN +3' over Miami (OH) Amazingly the L/4 times that MU has travelled to Evanston, they have won outright (‘64, ‘82, ‘95 and ‘99). Randy Walker faces his former team for the second time since coming to Evanston with his very first game as a Wildcat vs Miami. NU lost that one SU at home 28-3 in 1999 as 4 pt HD’s. Miami is off a bye the week after they lost to Iowa 21-3 as a 10 pt AD. In that game QB Ben Roethlisberger threw a career high 4 int, two of which led to Iowa TD’s. Coach Hoeppner said he was even more disappointed after watching film feeling they beat themselves. Northwestern is coming off a 22-21 loss to Air Force but easily covered as a 7’ pt HD winning our Underdog Play of the Week. The Wildcats actually led 21-7 after 3Q and they had a 21-14 FD edge on the game. NW is just 6-14 ATS as a HF but take out their Big 10 co-Champ year in 2000 & they’re just 2-14! The Cats’ defense & offense are greatly improved this season after 2 years of struggles. QB Brett Basanez has hit 227 ypg (51%) with a 1-5 ratio while RB Jason Wright has rushed for 304 yds (4.8). The defense has matured after LY’s comedy of errors and has allowed 185 ypg rushing (4.6) & 21 ppg (41.1 ppg LY). FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN 35 Miami (OH) 28
4* FLORIDA ST over Georgia Tech - Since FSU joined the ACC, GT is 0-11 SU and 3-7-1 ATS vs them with an avg loss of 40-12 here. LY we won with a 4* Key Selection on Florida St at GT. FSU is in a Maryland/Colorado sandwich but won’t take the Jackets lightly after only winning the L/4 by an avg of 7.5 ppg. At home LW, GT upset Auburn 17-3 and their young, inexperienced D-line held the Tigers to just 40 yds rushing. QB Reggie Ball is avg 148 ypg (53%) and has been poised beyond his years. FSU QB Chris Rix is avg 230 ypg (60%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Greg Jones has 147 yds (6.7). PS#1 rFR Lorenzo Booker has 129 yds (7.2) but sprained his ankle LW vs MD (call a Northcoast Full Service Line for his status). Phil Steele called FSU a National Title contender in his magazine this year and they are just that with our #3 rated offense and #4 defense. They waxed a solid Maryland team as a 4H while a gutless Auburn team could not expose GT LW. FSU overpowers a shorthanded GT team and check out MD HC Friedgen’s comments on FSU’s depth in News and Notes. FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 41 Georgia Tech 3
3* Oregon over ARIZONA - Since 1994 Oregon has owned this series going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS. LY the Wildcats hung tough for a half but lost 31-14 as 8 pt HD’s being outgained 432-332. Under Belotti, Oregon is 12-6 ATS as AF’s, including 5-0 the L/3Y. The Ducks are 8-0 ATS on grass the L/3Y. Arizona is 3-14 ATS as a HD since 1995. The Wildcats are a poor 2-15 their L/17 Pac 10 HG’s with their only cover LY vs Wash St a misleading (outgained 424-217) final. We release very few 5*’s during the year and always like to note past 5*’s in a series. In 1986 we gave out Arizona (-8) over Oregon as our Free Sept 5* and they delivered a 41-17 win but this is a much different version of the Wildcats. The Ducks have surprised us with their ability to run the ball so far this year (386 yds, 4.2 ypc). Arizona’s DL has lost 6 players for various reasons since spring and had to move a true Fr OL over. The Cats home field “advantage” could actually be a negative and LW we won easily with a Late Phone Play on LSU in their rout which was 38-0 at the half. FORECAST: Oregon 38 ARIZONA 13
3* Purdue over WAKE FOREST - LY the Deacons became only the second unranked team to beat Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium since Tiller took over in 1997. Questionable officiating (Tiller sent tapes to Big 10 offices and officials were suspended after 23 calls were reviewed and 21 were ruled incorrect), poor placekicking (3 missed 4Q FG’s for PU), and five Boiler TO’s played a big part in Wake’s 24-21 win. Purdue is 6-12 ATS L/18 Sept road games. They are 1-8 ATS vs their L/9 non-Big 10 foes. Purdue’s defense is #21 in our rankings. The 248 yds rushing they allowed LY to WF was the most since the 2000 Rose Bowl but they now have studied the Wake option. Prior to LW’s game vs BG Tiller made reference to scheduling MAC opponents so PU can get the easy win and that was all BG needed to hear as they pulled off the 27-26 upset. WF has pulled two upsets (BC and #11 NCSt) but have been outgained by a 477-342 yard margin. LW’s results give us a LOT of line value (Purdue would have been a 7 to 10 pt fav if these two played LW) and Purdue is a Top 20 team while WF took advantage of two teams taking them lightly and won’t have that edge here. FORECAST: Purdue 30 WAKE FOREST 17
NCAA OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* S Carolina (+) over GEORGIA - Georgia was lucky to escape with a win in this one LY as S Car had a 371-294 yd edge. Twice SC fumbled inside the GA 2 and GA’s only TD was by the defense (see Past History). Holtz pointed out that the Virginia and Georgia losses LY were the 2 games that kept S Car out of a bowl, and S Car righted one of those LW with a decisive 31-7 home upset win over #15 ranked Virginia as our Northcoast Sportsline Complimentary Underdog Play. QB Dondrial Pinkins is avg 174 ypg (43%) with a 2-1 ratio. The fav is 5-1 ATS the L/6. The home team is 6-3 ATS the L/9. UGA WR Fred Gibson injured his hamstring LW but the team should get back some of the players who have been missing due to inj and susp including 2 key CB’s. Both teams have inexperienced O-lines and top-notch D-lines, so this should be a low scoring game. Pinkins did start at Florida and Clemson LY so he’s faced hostile crowds. SC did hold Greene & Co. to 11 of 22 for 169 yds and 0 TD’s LY. FORECAST: S Carolina (+) 16 GEORGIA 23
2* AKRON over E Michigan - LY EMU won 42-34 for their only win over an IA opponent. In 2001, Akron won a 3 OT game 65-62 (the highest scoring MAC game ever). Akron’s offense with 11 returning starters is led by QB Charlie Frye who is avg 390 ypg (71%) with a 4-2 ratio. The Zips only have IAA Howard on deck and are 0-2. In the Eagles opening game they lost their starting QB Jeff Crooks for the season with a broken leg. Backup QB Chinedu Okoro is averaging 216 ypg (59%) with a 2-1 ratio. They did lose last Thursday to IAA Western Illinois but keep in mind that WIU was ranked #1 in IAA in our Power Ratings. We rank EMU as the #117 team (out of 117 teams) in IA for the 2nd straight year. EM is overmatched here and Akron will be in a foul mood and take out early frustrations on the Eagles. FORECAST: AKRON 49 E Michigan 17
2* Notre Dame (+) over MICHIGAN - These 2 powers renewed their rivalry LY as the Irish edged the Wolves 25-23 as 5 pt HD’s in a game that featured some highly controversial non-calls by the refs (see Past History). The Irish’s win upped the dogs record in this incredibly entertaining series to a sterling 13-1-1 ATS. Willingham’s teams are 18-5 ATS when getting points the L/5Y, including bowls. The Irish get their first look at UM’s new FieldTurf surface & are 4-11 ATS on the fake stuff S/‘93. ND QB Carlyle Holiday worked on his passing touch in the offseason but hit for just 149 yds (62%) with a 1-1 ratio LW and was sacked 6 times behind an OL that had 5 new starters. ND successfully went with a TB rotation in their first game with Ryan Grant (98 yds) & Julius Jones (72 yds) which wore out the Cougars’ defense. The Irish missed preseason AA candidate LB Courtney Watson in the opener due to a suspension. QB John Navarre has his finest supporting cast to work with since he started the first 3 games of the year as a rFr in 2000 & is avg 191 ypg (51%) with a 3-1 ratio. He could be TY’s version of Carson Palmer and remember that many a Heisman campaign has been started with big performances against the Irish. RB Chris Perry leads the NCAA with 416 yds (8.5). Perry takes on a stout Irish defense that allowed WSU just 55 yds (1.8) rushing LW. ND ranks #6 on defense while UM is #9. Michigan is at home and rates the large edge on offense (#1-43). You would expect this to be a white knuckle-type of low scoring game but the L/3 meetings have avg 51 ppg. Michigan should be about a 7 pt fav but you cannot ignore the dogs dominance in this series and we will look at the dog if getting more than a FG. FORECAST: Notre Dame (+) 20 MICHIGAN 23
NCAA OTHER GAMES:
California at UTAH - The last time Cal played a Thursday Night game was in 1992 when they travelled to Kansas and upset the Jayhawks 27-23 as 6’ pt AD’s as the Thursday Night ESPN Play on Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline. Utah’s RB Brandon Warfield has 355 yds (5.1) and RB Marty Johnson could play this week and is just as good. QB Brett Elliott likely has a broken arm so make sure to call a Northcoast Full Service Line to check on all of Utah’s injuries. Cal is 18 pts away from being 3-0 and Tedford is doing a great job getting the maximum out of the talent on hand. This is the Thursday Night ESPN Play and is available after 5:00 pm ET on game day at 1-900-903-9467 or at the NCstore (www.ncsports.com). The Thursday Night ESPN Play is now 88-53 62% since 1991 including LY’s RED HOT 11-5 record! The Marquee Plays on Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline are an amazing 28-6 82% so far this year!!
Toledo at MARSHALL - This is a Friday Night game between the teams that have met in the MAC Championship game the L/2Y. Herd QB Stan Hill threw for 242 yds (67%) with a 3-1 ratio vs a tough Tenn defense LW. Hill did miss the L/3 series after bumping stomachs with an OL and twisting his knee. He should be ready to go this week (call a Northcoast Full Service Line for a full injury report). These teams have met 5 times since the Herd rejoined the MAC (3 times in the MAC Championship) and in those meetings the Herd is 3-2 SU but 1-3-1 ATS. In their only 2 regular season meetings the home team is 2-0 SU & ATS. The Rockets are led by QB Bruce Gradkowski who is avg 187 ypg (65%) with a 5-0 ratio. Marshall is 95-5 SU and 50-1 SU under HC Pruett when playing in Marshall Stadium but just 4-4-2 ATS the L/2Y. This is the Friday Night game and is available after 5:00 pm ET on Friday at 1-900-903-9467 or at the NCstore (www.ncsports.com). The Friday Night PPH Play is already 2-0 this year!!
SYRACUSE 37 Louisville 30 - UL is 2-0 ATS the L/2 times they have played in a dome the L/5Y (vs Tulane). Syr was just 1-2 ATS as a HF in 2002, but the Orangemen are 13-5 ATS S/’99 as a HF. Syr is 8-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in non-conf HG’s. The Cards are off of a bye with HG’s vs UTEP and Temple on deck and have that extra week to prep for the SU freeze option. They are 5-2 ATS in their L/7 vs BCS conf teams including 3-1 ATS as a dog with 2 outright upsets (#5 Florida St LY). Syr faced Louisville HC Bobby Petrino’s offense LY as they played Auburn (Petrino is a former OC there). The Orange beat NC 49-47 in 3 OT and RB Walter Reyes had 191 yds (6.8) and 3 TD’s. SU did allow 340 yds pass (71%) after allowing an NCAA worst 304 ypg pass LY and have three new starters in the secondary. UL has an inexperienced QB making just his second career start in a very loud venue. UL RB Eric Shelton (PS#3) ran for 151 yds (6.0) vs Kentucky. SU is 0-5 both SU & ATS following an OT game but this will be the first vs a non-BCS foe over that span. SU was 4-8 LY while UL was 7-6 but the Orangemen are more talented, are at home, and are much improved.
PITT 42 Ball St 0 - Due to a schedule change, BSU will bus to this game in an effort to save $50,000. Ball St faced their biggest opponent ever at home LW losing 35-7 to Missouri. In that game QB Andy Roesch (shoulder) did not play in the 4Q and is questionable for this one. The ground game is trying to replace RB Marcus Merriweather (all-time leading rusher). His replacement, Scott Blair, has 74 yds (3.4) but that is a big step down from Merriweather’s 4.9 ypc LY. They are 4-0 ATS vs Big East teams S/’89. Pitt is just 3-6 ATS as a HF at Heinz Field. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS the L/10 vs MAC opponents, and destroyed Kent St 43-3 LW as a 28 pt HF. Pitt QB Rod Rutherford did not start LW but played after 3 series (susp). We rank Pitt’s D #13 in the country. A shutout is certainly possible here. Ball St is 8-5 ATS as a DD AD S/’00 but we feel Pitt is a legitimate National Title contender this year and they should roll.
W VIRGINIA 28 Cincinnati 24 - WV is 11-0-1 SU all-time in this series. UC is 12-4 ATS their L/16 following a bye. LY we used WV as a 4* Late Phone Selection and they dominated even more than the final score indicated (see Past History). WV is 12-7 ATS as a HF S/’98, but the Bearcats are a super 17-7 ATS as an AD (5-0 ATS L/2Y). WV has a big game vs Maryland on deck and remember that MD embarrassed them LY. On the other hand, UC is off of a bye with Temple on deck. The L/2Y Cincy has played vs 4 BCS foes and they are 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS and those three losses were by a combined 12 points including their almost upset of eventual National Champ Ohio St. Both teams have already faced E Carolina and both rushed for 361 yds vs the lowly Pirates. Cincy is 9-1 ATS mark in their L/10 as a dog and a 7-1 ATS mark in their L/8 on the road. UC only allowed 296 ypg on the road LY. Both return 5 starters on offense and 4 on defense and have an experienced QB.
OHIO STATE 33 NC State 17 - Both teams got caught looking ahead to this week (see News and Notes). This is the same venue where Texas Tech QB Kliff Kingsbury & Wash St QB Jason Gesser’s Heisman aspirations went down in flames LY and NCS QB Philip Rivers hopes ride on this one. The Pack is a perfect 7-0 as a road dog under Amato and he is 3-0 SU & ATS vs Big 10 as HC at NCS. The Bucks’ defense has already taken on the prolific passing attacks of Washington & SDSt and held both offenses in check allowing 222 ypg (55.7%) with a 1-2 ratio. Rivers has hit for 377 ypg (81%) with a 6-2 ratio. NCSt had 3 offensive starters miss the WF game in LT Christopher Colmer, RB T.A. McLendon & WR Sterling Hicks. Check your Full Service Line this week for their status. OSU has rushed for just 131 ypg (3.3). QB Craig Krenzel had his worst game as a starter vs SDSt hitting just 5 of 20 for 76 yds. OSU did play without C Alex Stepanovich (ankle) while RB Lydell Ross (foot) saw limited action. LW the Pack allowed 202 yds (4.0) to WF but in their last 2 games of 2002 (FSU & ND) they allowed just 120 yds (2.0). Look for a much better effort from both teams this week and for OSU to grab an impressive home win.
MICHIGAN ST 38 La Tech 28 - First meeting. MSU has a huge game with rival Notre Dame on deck while LT is in their second straight AG with a large trip to league power Fresno St on tap. MSU is just 2-9 ATS as a HF the L/3Y. Their 3 homestand has been a test of the rebuilt Spartans’ secondary as they’ve allowed 300 ypg (54%) with a 4-4 ratio passing in the first 2 games. MSU’s top DT Brandon McKinney (ankle) was a late scratch LW & he is questionable for this one. MSU has only allowed 4 total yds rushing this year. Spartans’ QB Jeff Smoker has 675 yds (63.6%) with a 3-6 ratio in the new offense. WR Agim Shabaj (PS#33) has 234 yds (18.0). LT shouldn’t be intimidated by the venue as they regularly take on the big boys with trips to Penn St, Texas A&M, Clemson, Kan St, Auburn and Miami (FL) in the L/4Y. They are 4-7 ATS their L/11 on the road vs BCS foes and 1-5 ATS as a DD dog. In 2002, LT was 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS away from Ruston. LT QB Luke McCown gives them backdoor potential, especially with the Irish on deck for MSU. LT’s pass efficiency D ranks 36th so they are playing surprisingly well defensively.
WISCONSIN 48 Unlv 21 - LY these two drew 42,075, which was the largest crowd at a sporting event ever in the state of Nevada. The game was stopped with 7:41 left in the 4Q due to a power outage (see Past History). The Badgers have won the L/3 in this series by an avg margin of 43-10. UW is just 4-11 ATS vs non-conf foes S/‘99. They’ve also been poor HF’s going 4-13 ATS S/‘99. We feel Wisky has a shot at the Rose Bowl this year, and in their past Rose Bowl years they avg 45 ppg at home vs non-conf teams. LW the Badgers held off Akron 48-31 at Camp Randall. It was the first time in Wisconsin’s 114 year history that they had a WR and RB both top 200 yards in the same game. Jim Sorgi is avg 248 ypg (58%) with a 3-0 ratio. RB Anthony Davis has 414 total yds (7.0) while WR Lee Evans has 16 rec (17.8). UNLV (1-1) lost LW to Kansas 46-24 giving up 546 yds. They still have some players that have to sit out due to suspensions. QB Kurt Nantkes is avg 242.5 ypg (62%) with a 3-3 ratio. RB Larry Croom has 225 yds (6.1). Wisky’s defense allowed 372 yds passing LW vs Akron. UNLV WR Earvin Johnson (PS#20) was suspended in the opener but returned LW. Look for UW to roll it up at home.
TEXAS 27 Arkansas 14 - It is good to see these former SWC teams renew their rivalry. The last meeting between these two was in the 1999 Cotton Bowl in which UA surprised Texas 27-6 as 5’ pt dogs. UA is off an easy home win vs Tulsa (led 28-3 at half and rested starters) and only has N Texas on deck, while Texas is off a bye and only has Rice on deck. Texas is 14-5-1 ATS after a bye. UA is 7-3 ATS as a dog the L/3Y. Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in their 1st road game. The most intriguing matchup here will feature the Hogs’ #4 secondary vs the Horns #1 set of rec’s. New UT QB Chance Mock hit 7 of 15 for 156 yds and RB Cedric Benson didn’t fulfill his preseason promise of massive improvement as he only rushed for 40 yds (3.3) in the rout of NMSt. On the other side, forever underachieving UA RB Cedric Cobbs finally whipped himself into shape in the offseason and lived up to his potential rushing for 145 yds (12.1)!! Of course the rush yds will be a bit tougher to come by this week vs the Longhorns as Texas held the option based Aggies to 150 rush yds (2.7). Ark is a surprising 5-1 SU and ATS their L/6 road trips. Texas is one of the top teams in the country ranking #5 on offense and #3 on D but the Hogs are #13 and #19, so they have the talent to make a game of this.
Iowa 23 IOWA ST 20 - LY’s game marked the only regular season loss for the Hawks as they ‘blew’ a 24-7 halftime lead (see Past History). That lead for the Hawks was actually their first in this series since ‘97 to show how much the fortunes have changed in this series. Hayden Fry’s version of the Hawks owned the Cyclones (15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS vs them from ‘83-’97). McCarney, a former assistant under Fry, has turned the tide the L/5Y with a 5-0 SU & ATS record vs his alma mater. ISU has outrushed Iowa 196-116 ypg & outgained them overall 413-307 ypg. Iowa is 3-6 ATS in their first road trip and they have a young QB and only 1 starter back on the OL. Both of these teams are off easy games with MAC teams and while ISU has a bye next week (7-3 ATS L/10 prior to a bye) Iowa has Arizona St on deck. Iowa’s two-time All Big 10 SS Bob Sanders (foot) & Iowa St’s Preseason All Big 12 DE Tyson Smith (leg) are both out. ISU did allow option-oriented Ohio to pass for its most yds S/‘93 (237 yds) prompting McCarney to say after the game that he couldn’t stand to even think about looking at the game tape. Iowa has the edges offensively (#49-63), defensively (#28-76) & on special tms (#1-57). Iowa St, however, owns the Hawkeyes, have a young offense making their first road start and is much better at home where they outscored foes 39-17 LY while losing on the road by a 38-19 avg.
Rutgers 34 ARMY 24 - The dog is 6-3 ATS in the L/9 in this series. Army has 6 straight non-covers as a non-conf HD. LY Army was without starting QB Reggie Nevels and they lost 44-0 as a 4 pt AF in Rutgers’ only win of the year. Four Army TO’s led to 28 Rutgers points as Army was shutout for the first time S/’89. Rutgers has only been an AF once in the L/7Y, and won that game in 2001 SU & ATS as a 15 pt AF at Buffalo. Rutgers is just 3-16 ATS on artificial turf. LY the Scarlet Knights played well on the road vs perennial powerhouse Tennessee and LW they managed a cover at Mich St as the Inside Info Play on Phil Steele’s PPH. RU QB Ryan Hart is avg 246 ypg (56%) with a 3-2 ratio and Army is off of a 48-21 loss to UConn. Nevels was benched in favor of Zac Dahman LW. Way back in 1984 we won with a rare 4’* on Army in this series and although the dog has had success here, we feel that Rutgers is simply a much stronger team and will call for them to roll.
Minnesota 38 OHIO 13 - The last time these 2 met OU pulled the shocking 23-17 outright upset as 20 pt dogs in the Metrodome in 2000. This is a rare HG vs a BCS team for the Bobcats so the home crowd will be pumped. UM should be prepared as their last trip to a MAC stadium was a 38-7 season opening loss to Toledo in 2001. Ohio’s offense returns just 4 starters led by a two QB system with Sr Fred Ray & Jr Ryan Hawk, a transfer from Miami, and avg 161 rush and 159 pass. OU had just 1 returning starter on the line, OG Brian Brown, who is now out 2-5 weeks with an ankle injury, while Minny returns 6 of its front 7. The Gophers are 2-0 ATS as a DD fav this year. Minny also has quite a number of Ohioans on the roster (11) and they do not play OSU in the next 2 years. OU is 3-1 ATS as a HD the L/4Y. Minnesota’s offense has avg almost 500 ypg and they put the hammer down in games like this with a 11-4 ATS mark in non-conf play.
Virginia 27 WESTERN MICHIGAN 17 - The Cavs travel to Kalamazoo where they’ll play just their 2nd game on artificial turf S/’95 (a 26-17 loss at Wisky in 2001 as 10 pt AD’s). UVA’s young QB faces a veteran Broncos’ secondary that was #65 in our pass D rankings LY. The Cavs are only 2-4 ATS the last 6 as an AF. Gary Darnell sports a 23-8 home record entering 2003 but the only other time the Broncos have hosted a BCS team they were spanked 30-0 by Virg Tech LY. WM is only 1-5 SU and ATS as a HD. Both clubs have a bye next week. WM QB Chad Munson is avg 392 ypg (63.5%) with an 8-2 ratio. UVA is on a 2nd straight road trip and lost to S Car 31-7 LW, as with QB Matt Schaub out frosh Anthony Martinez was rattled (54 yds, 50%, 2 int) in his 1st road start. The Cavs are talented and have our #37 rated offense and #35 defense while WM is just #92 and #94 and should be able to get the SU win.
COLORADO 24 Wash St 20 - CU has a heightened altitude advantage being in the Rocky Mountain State a 3rd straight week. The Cougars are off of a tough road loss in South Bend. WSU is 11-2 ATS the L/4Y on grass. They are 7-2 ATS the L/4Y as an AD and are 6-2 ATS off of a loss. New CU QB Joel Klatt has thrown for 280 ypg (66%) with a 5-0 ratio. WSU Sr QB Matt Kegel has been workmanlike throwing for 191 ypg (57%) with a 2-2 ratio. For a team that has used a thundering ground attack in the past, the Buffs are only avg 95 yds on the ground vs 280 in the air. In the meantime the traditionally high flying Cougars have rushed for 394 yds and thrown for 401. CU lost its top pass rusher DE Marques Harris for the season. The Cougars have a little more talent (#32 vs #64 off, #23 vs #34 D) but Colorado has a good sized situational and coaching edge and gets the home win.
Kansas 33 WYOMING 30 - The Cowboys last played the Jayhawks in a rescheduled game in 2001, their first meeting S/‘72. Kansas won 27-14 as 4 pt favs. KU had a 451-286 total yd edge and sacked Casey Bramlet 5 times. Wyoming is 6-1 ATS when hosting a Big 12 team. KU just faced a MWC team LW and won 46-24 vs UNLV. The Hawks are 12-29 ATS away from home S/‘94. KU’s JUCO all-star team on defense may start to gel in time for the Big 12 schedule. So far it’s allowed 444 ypg & 26 ppg. Hawks’ QB Bill Whittemore has stayed in the pocket more in his 2nd season in Mangino’s system and has thrown for 255 ypg (58%) with a 4-2 ratio (75 rush). Kansas did win as an AF at Tulsa LY, their only time in that role the L/3Y. RB Clark Green has 196 yds (5.4) while WR Mark Simmons is avg 28.5 ypc. WY QB Bramlet is avg 254.5 ypg (52%) with a 4-0 ratio. Kansas is the more talented team and gets a close SU win on the road.
USC 38 Hawaii 17 - The last time these two met was in 1999 when the Trojans travelled to the Islands in the opener and rolled 62-7 as 26’ pt AF’s. This is a much different scenario as Hawaii is now in the fifth year of the June Jones regime and the fast paced run & shoot offense as compared to their first game under a new coach. USC is 3-9 ATS the L/4Y against non-conf foes. As a HF USC had gone 3-12 ATS from 1999-2001 but are 4-3 the L/2Y. USC has next week off. This will be the toughest defense Hawaii has seen since Alabama held them to 16 pts at home LY. UH is 7-3 ATS as an AD and 10-5 ATS on the road under HC Jones. They are also 17-8 ATS overall as a dog and a perfect 7-0 ATS on grass. UH is 3-2 ATS in their L/5 vs BCS foes but all of those games were in Honolulu and they still lost by an avg of 23 ppg. A key here should be the Warriors young OL having to face the Trojans “Wild Bunch II” DL, something that should give QB Timmy Chang (who was susp for the opener) problems all day. USC QB Matt Leinart has thrown for 427 yds (56%) with a 4-3 ratio. TB Hershel Dennis has only rushed for 125 yds (3.3). Before LW’s non-covering win over BYU, the Trojans had won 8 straight ATS with the L/4 covering by a total of 89 pts.
DUKE 27 Rice 17 - These non-conf foes have met twice recently with the home team winning each time SU and the Blue Devils covering both as a dog. Both were also close, low scoring affairs (‘92 Duke 17-12, ‘01 Rice 15-13). Rice is 2-6 ATS in their L/8 road games and 14-25 ATS on grass. Duke is 0-5 SU & ATS as a fav S/’99. Rice is off of a bye. In 2001 Duke held Rice’s option to just 154 yds on 57 carries (2.7). The Devils have our #40 defense and Rice is #107. Duke has 20 returning starters as compared to just 10 for the Owls. Duke really disappointed us in their first game losing to Virginia 27-0 but beat a IAA team LW. Rice lost their season opener to Houston 48-14 being outgained 440-242. Duke is the stronger team but can’t be trusted to lay too many as a rare fav and Rice plays hard every week.
ALABAMA 31 Kentucky 21 - The home team is 5-0 ATS the L/5 in this series but these two haven’t met S/’97. These teams both have new head coaches coaching their first career SEC games. Bama is off of a tough home loss to #1 Oklahoma. Both teams are starting to feel the effects of probation and both have depth problems due to the loss of scholarships and attrition from the coaching changes. UK blamed their loss at Louisville partially on the scholarship reductions. New UK OC Ron Hudson vowed to scale back the offense he brought with him from K-St because the team struggled vs Louisville, but the offense stalled early LW and only accumulated 308 total yds vs IAA Murray St. If Bama has a weak spot on defense, it could be their pass D which has allowed 243 ypg (57%) with a 3-1 ratio and now they face QB Jared Lorenzen who is avg 217 ypg (62%) with a 6-2 ratio. UK also has a sneaky advantage on special teams (#3 vs #70). UK is 6-1 ATS their L/7 on the SEC road with 3 SU wins and only one loss by more than 14. Bama has to be a little letdown after LW, but UK has to prove capable of performing at this level under Brooks but is in a great situation.
Auburn 20 VANDERBILT 17 - The home team is 8-0-1 ATS in this series. Vandy hasn’t beaten Auburn SU since 1955, but in Nashville 2 years ago Vandy did have an 18-13 FD edge and was at the Aub 26 yd line with :37 left. Instead of kicking the FG to tie, former HC Widenhofer elected to go for it, and the Commodores were stopped. LY’s game was played in pouring rain and windy conditions. The FD’s were even at 19, but Aub outgained Vandy 378-290 and won 31-6 as 20’ pt HF’s thanks to TWO defensive TD’s. Vandy is 5-2-1 as a HD, and almost beat Ole Miss here 2 weeks ago. Vandy has lost 19 consecutive SEC games SU. The Commodores are 13-7-1 ATS as a DD HD. Auburn comes into this game in total disarray. The team that was ranked #6 in the AP poll coming into the season is now 0-2 and hasn’t scored a TD yet. QB Jason Campbell has been sacked 13 times. The talented RB’s haven’t found running room as the team is avg just 42 rush ypg (1.1). Vandy QB Jay Cutler is avg 217 ypg (60%) with a 3-1 ratio. VU is avg 193 ypg rush (4.0), and meanwhile the defense has only allowed 232 total ypg and 15 ppg. Take the scrappy home team vs the underperforming Tigers.
MIAMI (FL) 55 E Carolina 6 - The Pirates are 2-8 SU but 5-1-1 ATS in this series. EC has actually won SU the L/2 meetings (‘99 & ‘96) and are 2-1 ATS in this series as a DD AD winning their last trip HERE by a 31-6 margin! They are however just 5-14-1 ATS as a DD dog since 1992. UM is off a huge comeback win vs rival Florida and has a trip to BC on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them. Against the Gators, Miami trailed 33-10 in the 3Q before going on a 28 point run led by Florida transfer Brock Berlin (PS#1), to win the game 38-33 as a 14 pt HF. EC has lost their two games by a combined 88-10 margin. They are allowing 361 ypg rush (6.9) and 522 ypg total defense. This is a mismatch and Miami can name the score.
S MISSISSIPPI 20 Memphis 13 - S Miss has dominated this series going 10-1 SU the L/11 and the L/5 at “The Rock” they have outscored Memphis by a 138-20 margin! Memphis did get their lone win in 2001 thanks to a 5-0 TO edge. Memphis has had just 10 FD’s vs SM each of the L/2Y and in their 2001 upset had drives totaling 20 yds produce 19 of their 22 points. SM’s RB Derrick Nix who rushed for 523 yds in his career vs Memphis including 175 LY is missed as they are avg just 91 ypg rush (2.2) so far TY. SM had a 31-10 FD edge LY in their 33-14 win at home. SM had a couple of extra days to prep and have a bye next week. This is their home opener and they are 15-9 ATS at home since 1997. In their last game SM beat UAB 17-12 as a 3 pt AF (see Misleading Finals). Memphis is making their 1st road trip with a young OL (just 1 starter back) vs an aggressive blitzing defense that features a top-notch DL. They are off of a huge upset beating Ole Miss 44-34 as an 8 pt HD where they had a 506-408 yd edge. UM RB DeAngelo Williams has 196 yds rush (4.7) and 8 rec (20.8) and he has already scored 6 TD’s. QB Danny Wimprine is just 23 of 49 (47%) for 128 ypg in 2 meetings vs SM but so far this season he is avg 311 ypg (62%) with a perfect 5-0 ratio.
OKLAHOMA 30 Fresno St 6 - First ever meeting. FSU is 1-5 SU & 3-2 ATS (3-0 L/3) vs the Big 12. FSU is 6-2 ATS in their L/8 as an AD and 20-11 ATS as a dog overall. In their L/10 games vs BCS foes FSU is 5-5 SU & 9-1 ATS. Three of those 4 SU losses were by a combined 9 points with their only blowout loss coming at the hands of Oreg St in a rare revenge situation LY. FSU got revenge for that loss LW by notching the upset of the Beavers as our Friday Night Play. In that game FSU’s defense forced OSU QB Derek Anderson into 5 int but was outgained 406-336. FSU triggerman QB Jeff Grady has struggled and now faces our top ranked secondary. Paul Pinegar remains ? for this one so check your Full Service Line this week for his status. The FSU OL lost their only returning starter in Aug & now faces DT Tommie Harris & Co. The Bulldogs managed just 4 FD’s & 117 total yds vs a defense in this class at Tennessee. OU QB Jason White has shaken off the injury bug to pass for 254 ypg (63%) with a 5-1 ratio. As expected OU’s defense has been the nation’s best allowing just 92 ypg (2.7) rushing & 137 ypg (46%) passing with a 1-3 ratio this year & 8 sacks. OU is off of a thrilling win in Tuscaloosa and have UCLA on deck so this could be a flat spot for them. They are just 2-6 ATS their L/8 Sept HG’s. OU is 4-8 ATS their L/12 as a HF of 14+ pts.
BAYLOR 23 Smu 20 - These former SWC foes are just 88 miles apart & have not faced one another since the formation of the Big 12 conference. The Bears have won and covered each of the L/7 meetings. They are also 2-0 ATS in the history of the series as a HD. SMU is 7-4 ATS following a bye. The Ponies have struggled on the road in September going 0-13 SU & 2-10-1 ATS their L/13. Baylor is 17-10 ATS at home in September since 1985. SMU is just 11-19 ATS in their L/30 as a fav. BU has been a HF just 4 times in the L/4Y (3-1 ATS). While both offenses rank near the bottom in our ratings, SMU does rate an edge on D at #73 (BU #109) and has a huge edge on special teams at #49 (BU #116). Two weeks ago, Baylor delivered on the Big Dog Play of the Week on the Private Play Hotline vs UAB. LW Baylor’s young OL was overwhelmed by a great NT DL on the road. BU RB Rashad Armstrong left LW’s game and did not return. SMU has lost two key players this year on offense, TB ShanDerrick Charles and WR Chris Cunningham. SMU lost to TT 58-10 in their opener. The Bears should get the win at home.
Miss St 35 TULANE 34 - Miss St is 5-0 SU and ATS vs Tulane since 1989, but the last meeting was in 1994. Tulane is 4-9 ATS the L/13 vs non-conf. Miss St hasn’t been an AF since 2000 and is 1-4 ATS as a fav the L/3Y. Tulane is 3-1 the L/4 as a HD and 6-2 ATS the L/8 overall as a dog. Miss St has only played 1 regular season game on artificial turf in the L/4Y, a 36-13 SU and ATS loss at Oregon LY. Tulane has dropped 3 in a row both SU & ATS vs BCS foes by an average margin of 49-12. Tulane faced a tough IAA matchup LW vs #18 ranked Northwestern St who they were forced to play on a short week after facing TCU on Labor Day. They barely escaped with a 3 pt win in OT, but the offense ran smoothly with 436 total yds. Tulane was more impressive vs TCU who they played pretty much even up before losing in 2 OT’s. QB JP Losman has avg 328 ypg (60%) with a 6-3 ratio. MSU had a disappointing opener as they fell behind Oregon 28-0, and went on to lose 42-34 on their home field while allowing 556 yds. Tulane was +22 in TO’s while Miss St was -15 LY and despite MSU’s 3-8 record LY actually outgained foes by 13 ypg. In a close matchup, we’ll lean with the dog.
NEBRASKA 38 Penn St 6 - PSU treated us to a 4* Late Phone Play & Underdog Play of the Week Winner in their huge 41-7 outright upset of the Huskers LY in Happy Valley in which Paterno used his secret weapon, QB Mike Robinson, in a ‘slash’ role & he burned the Huskers for 3 TD’s. It was just the 7th night game at Happy Valley. This is the Lions’ 1st venture to Lincoln since their historic ‘81 matchup. PSU is off of a tough loss to BC while NU just had Utah St LW. LY’s contest marked the 1st road start in NU QB Jammal Lord’s career and he threw for just 75 yds with 3 int in a losing cause. PSU QB Zack Mills hit 19 of 31 for 259 yds vs NU LY but has struggled throwing for just 119 ypg (50%) with a 7-8 ratio over the L/8 games. Paterno benched Mills LW in the 3Q but the more mobile Robinson has also been ineffective (31%) behind a very inexperienced OL which allowed Mills to get hit an estimated 15-20 times. Paterno said after the BC game that there is no QB controversy & Mills will get the start in Lincoln. PS#16RB true frosh Austin Scott looks like he has taken over the TB job rushing for 129 yds (5.9). The Lions are 6-1 as an AD the L/2Y. NU is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS their L/9 meetings vs the Big 10 scoring an avg of 50.5 ppg in their 8 wins. The Blackshirts proved in their season opening win 2 weeks ago that they are back under new DC Pelini holding OSU to 183 total yds & 11 FD’s in a 3* Late Phone Winner for us. Penn St is rebuilding along both lines and that is a very bad situation vs the powerful Husker lines. This is a rare game where revenge is a factor.
N MEXICO 26 Byu 23 - BYU is an impressive 20-2 SU (4-9 ATS L/13). LY NM won at BYU for the first time since 1971 when Rocky Long was the team’s QB. QB Matt Berry had an awful day for BYU with 81 yds (35%) with an 0-2 ratio. He was complaining of stomach problems and vomited at halftime. BYU’s DC is Bronco Mendenhall, who was NM’s DC the L/5Y. Both teams are using his schemes and he knows the NM personnel. This will be BYU’s second straight AG. N Mex is 10-4 ATS at home vs MWC foes. NM almost upset BYU’s 2001 team here in Albuquerque and that BYU team opened the year 11-0 and scored 44.1 ppg. That year NM’s defense held Crowton’s offense to its regular season low ypg (365) and LY BYU had just 188 total yds. Berry is avg 287 ypg (68%) with a 4-4 ratio and just faced the USC D LW. RB Marcus Whalen looks to be out again this week while Reynaldo Brathwaite has 112 yds (5.3). NM lost 42-28 at Texas Tech LW, but outgained them 584-456. Casey Kelly is avg 257 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB D.D. Cox had 187 yds (6.9) with 3 TD’s LW. These are two quality teams but NM is very tough at home and gets the SU win.
UCLA 27 Illinois 20 - This is the Bruins home opener and they have opened their home season 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS the L/9Y. IL is 5-2 ATS their L/7 when visiting Pac 10 opponents. The Illini are off of a 49-22 breezer vs IAA Illinois St but is not expected to have 2 starters for this game in FB Carey Davis (10 rec in opener) & DE Mike O’Brien (knee injury). UCLA has a trip to #1 Oklahoma on deck & are off of HC Dorrell’s debut, a SU win but spread covering loss vs Colorado. The Illini are 5-2 as an AD the L/2Y and are a terrific 14-6-1 ATS on grass since ‘97. Illini QB Jon Beutjer has thrown for 246 ypg (70%!) with a 5-1 ratio now takes on a Bruin secondary which we rate #7. Illinois game vs Missouri was a misleading loss as they had a decided 411-223 yardage advantage and should be 2-0 here. UCLA’s starting QB Matt Moore was inj in the 1Q LW, but the #2 is Drew Olson who had finished 2002 as the starter. As noted the Bruins have a top flight D and held a CU team that had 504 yds of offense the week prior vs CSU to only 245 LW on their home field.
San Diego St 27 UTEP 17 - Matt Dlugolecki (PS#56) was forced to start vs Ohio St and hit 23 of 39 for 189 yds with just an 0-2 ratio. SDSt is 0-1-1 as an AF the L/4Y but had a 20-10 FD edge vs the powerful Buckeyes in Columbus. UTEP had a IAA foe LW in Cal Poly and lost 34-13 in a must win situation. The two QB’s at UTEP, Orlando Cruz and Jordan Palmer, threw for a disappointing 141 yds with 2 int. LY UTEP allowed 362 ypg at home and yielded 495 ypg on the road but after an 11-4 mark at home from ‘98-’00 they are just 2-6 ATS there the L/3Y. In their first 3 HG’s of the year (before their lack of depth pops up) UTEP is 11-3 SU the L/5Y (only count 2 games in ‘00 due to reschedule) and 9-3 ATS including 4 outright upsets. After LW’s disparate results, we might side with the dog if the linesmaker overcompensates. The Aztecs go from hunter to hunted.
Boston College 27 UCONN 24 - LY The Huskies led 16-3 at one point and later were down by 1 when they gave up an int in their own territory which BC was able to turn into 7 pts. The Eagles won the game 24-16 but failed to cover as a 33 pt HF. This will be a BE matchup next year. UConn is 2-0 SU and ATS with covers by 15 ppg and did it without their top tackler from LY, LB Maurice Lloyd who was injured vs Indiana. This will be only their 2nd game in their new stadium. QB Dan Orlovsky is avg 312 ypg (67%) with an 8-3 ratio and RB Terry Caulley has 268 yds (6.7). This is a short trip for BC and you can be sure BC HC O’Brien is aware of the recruiting implications of this game. UConn is 4-1 ATS as a HD the last 3 years. BC usually takes care of business vs weaker teams. BC upset Penn St LW. LY after BC pulled their huge upset of Notre Dame, they came out flat the next week and lost by 10 at WV. BC QB Quinton Porter is avg 194 ypg (53%) with a 4-1 ratio. RB Derrick Knight has 300 yds (5.4) in the first 2 games TY. BC has Miami on deck. UConn is 4-1 ATS vs BE teams when not playing Temple, the team they are scheduled to replace. BC is just 1-5 ATS as a non-conf AF.
AIR FORCE 26 N Texas 16 - First meeting, Homecoming. NT’s defense did have trouble with the option LY allowing N Mex St 440 yds but 335 of that was through the air. NT has an excellent D-line that should be able to get penetration and 3 veteran LB’s to work vs the option. This is Air Force’s best team in a long time but after facing a couple of cream puff defenses they now take on our #38 rated group. LW N Texas forced 6 Baylor TO’s in a 52-14 victory but AF should be more disciplined. LW we went against AF with Northwestern as the Underdog Play of the Week on these pages. AF QB Chance Harridge was ejected LW for throwing a punch in frustration and may possibly be suspended for this one (check status). The Falcons are avg 325 ypg rush.
CLEMSON 27 Middle Tenn 17 - First meeting. Since jumping to IA four years ago MTSU has proven that it’s a program to be reckoned with! They’ve taken on the entire SEC, Illinois, Arizona, and Maryland (all on the road) and are 11-5 ATS as an AD including covers against Alabama and Kentucky LY and Georgia this year. MT was outyarded 467-240 LW and got their only TD on a 71 yd bomb with 2:09 left. Clemson was uninspiring in a 28-17 win over Furman allowing 108 yards and 10 pts in the 4Q. This will be Clemson’s 3rd straight HG before traveling to their 1st league game vs GT next week. Clemson is just 8-12-2 ATS as a fav the L/3Y and 3-9 ATS their L/12 as a DD fav. Both teams lost to Georgia but MT was more impressive and should make a game of this.
Boise St 45 IDAHO 17 - Boise is 5-1 ATS both SU and ATS vs the Vandals the L/4Y but failed to cover LY only winning 38-21 (-23). BSU has outscored the Vandals by an avg of 49-18 in the L/4 meetings. LW the Vandals were beaten by IAA E Wash, 8-5. The usually porous Idaho defense has improved somewhat allowing just 16.5 ppg and 355 ypg through 2 games but the Michael Harrington led offense (Brian Lindgren lost job prior to year) has been nonexistent. This is BSU’s road opener with a trip to Oregon St on deck. BSU was 5-0 ATS as an AF LY and they are 20-7 ATS in their L/27 as chalk overall. The Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their L/12 road games. These instate rivals used to be in the Big West together and always used to meet in the season finale in what was their biggest game of the year. Boise won their last game here, 45-13, with only a 537-484 yard edge in total offense. Idaho did stay within 25 of Wash St on the road but Boise is hungrier.
OREGON ST 48 N Mexico St 24 - Oregon St has one of the toughest home fields in the country and are 10-1 ATS their L/11 Sept HG’s. Ironically when Riley took over here in 1997 the team ran the option and he switched them out of it and now they face an option team. NMSt runs the same option offense that Nebraska does. The Aggies are just 1-9 ATS their L/10 road games and 2-6 ATS vs BCS teams. These two did meet in Las Cruces in 2001 and the Aggies covered only losing 27-22 as a 16’ pt HD. The Aggies D held Texas RB Cedric Benson to 40 yds (3.3) and the Longhorns scored 28 pts off of a KR, 2 int & a 15 yd drive. OSU QB Derek Anderson had a terrible game vs Fresno St (34%, 5 int). Anderson has fared well, however, vs lesser opponents as LY in their 1st 3 games vs E Ken, Temple & UNLV he threw for 987 yds (67%) with a 12-0 ratio. OSU does have the Pac 10’s top RB, Steven Jackson, to fall back on and he has rushed for 257 yds (4.5). Their run D has been stingy so far this season only allowing a total of 121 ypg (1.8). We give the edge to an outstanding home team here.
UAB 34 Troy St 20 - TSU is travelling 147 miles by bus to UAB. LY Troy dominated this game with a 26-11 FD and 425-223 yard edge (TSU has avg 236.4 ypg vs all other IA teams). However 7 TO’s and a missed xp saw them lose 27-26 as a 1’ pt AD in their first IA meeting. This is Troy’s 3rd straight road game. The Trojans will be going up against their former DC, Wayne Bolt, who bolted after last season to take over as UAB’s DC. TSU is avg just 164 ypg total offense while allowing 430 ypg but that was vs Kan St and Minny. QB Hansell Bearden has just 52 ypg (42%) with an 0-1 ratio and LW they actually played 3 QB’s. UAB lost 17-12 as a 3 pt HD to S Miss (see Misleading Finals). UAB QB Darrell Hackney is a Steve McNair clone (6-2 235) who is avg 250 ypg (55%) with a 3-0 ratio and RB Bo Moncur has 214 yds (6.5). UAB is much more experienced this year and should win legitimately this time.
MISSISSIPPI 45 UL Monroe 17 - Ole Miss is 7-16 ATS as a HF since 1998 and comes off a 2 game road trip with a bye on deck. LY was the first meeting since ULM moved up to Div IA and ULM covered 3-31 as 31’ pt AD, but were outgained 378-228. This is the Rebs home opener which means it will be the first game on their new AstroPlay field. Recently Ole Miss has had trouble stopping the run but this year the culprit has been the secondary which has been shredded by Vandy and Memphis in B2B weeks. ULM was one of LW’s rash of IAA upset victims bowing to Stephen F Austin at home, 23-21. The Indians are 5-6 ATS vs the SEC being outscored by an avg of 44-8. Ole Miss is 2-6 ATS vs Sun Belt teams. ULM has exciting QB Steven Jyles but he is hitting just 48% and Ole Miss needs a win to regain confidence. The Ole Miss D is allowing 452 ypg and that could leave the backdoor open.
Houston 27 LOUISIANA-LFT 13 - The Cajuns are 0-4 SU & ATS vs the Cougars in this series since 1992 and in fact they are just 2-15 SU & 5-11 ATS vs CUSA teams since 1996. UH is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their history vs SBC foes. Houston won 36-17 (-9) LY but only had a 381-362 yard edge. UH did lead 36-10 and gave up a late 78 yard TD pass which evened out the yds. The Cajuns are coming off a loss 34-3 to LA Tech as a 4 pt HD which counted as their conference opener. The offense, which returned 6 starters, has averaged 280 ypg vs 2 tough defenses. UH is 6-12 ATS in their L/18 road games. They are 6-16 ATS as a fav. ULL got a 34-0 win over UAB LY. Houston is 0-2 ATS in the rare role of an AF the L/4Y losing SU each time but are the stronger team and frosh QB Kevin Kolb will be a much better QB after facing the Michigan D in front of 100,000 plus LW. ULL stayed within 7 of S Car but that was with Holtz sandbagging it with Virginia on deck.
ARIZONA ST 48 Utah St 20 - ASU HC Koetter has a big time belief in winning on one’s home field. At Boise St he had a 16-3 SU (10-2 ATS) record and has continued that trend here going 9-5 SU (8-5 ATS). The Aggies are coming off a 31-7 loss at Nebraska as a 32 pt AD which could have been far worse (see News and Notes). This is the final game of a 3 game season opening road trip for USU. USU is 1-5 ATS since 1996 losing by an avg score of 39-12 vs the Pac 10. They are led by new starting QB Travis Cox who is avg 229 ypg (49%) with a 2-2 ratio. He completed 10 of his first 11 attempts LW vs Nebraska. ASU only had IAA N Arizona LW but has a big road game vs Iowa next week. They are 2-0 ATS vs current Sun Belt teams the L/4Y including a 44-20 win over Utah St in 2000 (-21’).
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 19 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 152-84 64%! Last year the Underdog Play of the Week added another 4 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is the Underdog Play for this week:
NORTHWESTERN +3' over Miami (OH) Amazingly the L/4 times that MU has travelled to Evanston, they have won outright (‘64, ‘82, ‘95 and ‘99). Randy Walker faces his former team for the second time since coming to Evanston with his very first game as a Wildcat vs Miami. NU lost that one SU at home 28-3 in 1999 as 4 pt HD’s. Miami is off a bye the week after they lost to Iowa 21-3 as a 10 pt AD. In that game QB Ben Roethlisberger threw a career high 4 int, two of which led to Iowa TD’s. Coach Hoeppner said he was even more disappointed after watching film feeling they beat themselves. Northwestern is coming off a 22-21 loss to Air Force but easily covered as a 7’ pt HD winning our Underdog Play of the Week. The Wildcats actually led 21-7 after 3Q and they had a 21-14 FD edge on the game. NW is just 6-14 ATS as a HF but take out their Big 10 co-Champ year in 2000 & they’re just 2-14! The Cats’ defense & offense are greatly improved this season after 2 years of struggles. QB Brett Basanez has hit 227 ypg (51%) with a 1-5 ratio while RB Jason Wright has rushed for 304 yds (4.8). The defense has matured after LY’s comedy of errors and has allowed 185 ypg rushing (4.6) & 21 ppg (41.1 ppg LY). FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN 35 Miami (OH) 28
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