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National Football League – Write up
NFL
Write-up
Week 4 - 2007 NFL season
Sunday, September 30
Raiders (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)— Miami won six of last seven series games (only loss in ’00 playoffs), and Raiders lost last four visits here, but Fish are 0-3, allowing 68 points in last two games; they’ve allowed 166 rushing yards per game, converted only 12 of 46 on third down. Oakland allowed 27.7 pg this year, but they have run ball for 386 yards in last two games, and their last two games both came down to last-second FGs- they’ve improved. McCown hurt his ankle last week, so Culpepper, dumped last year by Miami, could get nod at QB here. Dolphins have zero takeaways in their last two games (-6). All three Raider games went over total.
Texans (2-1) @ Falcons (0-3)— You can say what you want about Vick’s absence hurting Atlanta, but in first three games, they’ve allowed five TD drives of 80+ yards, and Vick didn’t play defense. Falcons have no takeaways in their last two games, and allowed 142 rushing yards/game. Texans scored 26 ppg in 2-1 start; they’re 12-24 on 3rd down in last two games, and started six less drives in the black zone (80+ yards from goal line) than their opponents. Houston QB Schaub was Vick’s backup in Atlanta, but was traded just weeks before the whole dog fighting thing became known, or else he’d still be with Falcons. Atlanta did score two TD’s last week, after scoring one in first two games.
Ravens (2-1) @ Browns (1-2)— Big question here, as always, is whether McNair’s is good to go; have faith in him on road, none in Boller. Home side won five of last six series games; Ravens are 1-2 in last three visits to old home (Ravens are former Browns); last four series totals at this site were 36 or less. Browns scored 75 points in last two games (10 TDs on 24 drives) but they have also allowed 35 pg, 176 rushing yards per game- opponents are 20-43 (46.5%) on third down. Ravens scored 20+ pts in all three games (2-1), with a 354-185 edge on ground; they’re 20-36 on 3rd down in last two games, but showed vulnerability to no-huddle attack vs. Cardinals last week.
Bears (2-1) @ Lions (2-1)— Greise is getting nod under center for Bears, after Grossman's horrid outing vs Dallas. Detroit allowed 15 first downs on first 23 Eagle plays last week (five TDs); Bears should light up board against them. Chicago won last four series games, but their last five visits here have all been decided by six or less points. Detroit has the usual Martz Madness stats: 413 yards/game, 25.7 pg, both very good, but 10 turnovers, typically bad- they were 4-22 on 3rd against Bears last year, in 34-7/26-21 losses. Bears need to do better than 3.35 yards per rush. Chicago has been outscored 52-10 in second half of its games.
Packers (3-0) @ Vikings (1-2)— Favre won three of last four visits to this site, after losing nine of the previous ten; last nine regular season meetings were all decided by six or less points. Pack is 3-0 despite running ball for just 57 yards/game- they’ve scored nine TD’s on 20 drives in last two games, after upsetting Eagles in opener due to Philly miscues in punt game. Vikes are good field, no-hit, scoring three TD’s on 31 drives this season, already using three QB’s. Average total in Pack’s last nine visits to this site, 50.2, but under is 3-0 in ’07 Viking games (27-37-23). Vikings are allowing just 67 yds/game on ground, have 11 sacks, but when your third-string QB starts the third game, it ain’t good.
Rams (0-3) @ Cowboys (3-0)— No Steven Jackson, three starters are out on OL, and Rams are 0-3, scoring just 3.6 points/red zone trip, so not much good news as they travel to Dallas to face 3-0 Pokes, who’ve scored 86 second half points, are 44% on third down, and score 5.5 pts/red zone trip. Rams allowing 152 rushing yards/game, bad news vs. diverse Dallas offense that scored 13 TDs on 33 drives (Rams have three in 32). Only caution here is that giving 13 with self-satisfied (after Chicago win) Cowboys is asking to be bitten by gigantic letdown against hungry underdog that does have talent that belies 0-3 mark. Home side lost last six series games, with Rams winning last four visits here; their last loss here was in ’81.
Jets (1-2) @ Bills (0-3)— Losman is out, as are various others, as bad news mounts for Buffalo squad that scored just 24 points in three games (two TDs on 27 drives), is 13-37 (35%) on third down and is starting a rookie QB who couldn’t win game in Pac-10 LY. That said, Jets have been outsacked 10-1, and have no plays of 20+ yards in two games Pennington started (they had four (vs a . strong Raven defense) in game he didn’t play), and are allowing 121.3 rushing yards/game. Buffalo run defense has allowed 171-184-177 rushing yards in its three games, so Jones/Washington combo could have big day. Bill passing game averaged 2.0/3.0/2.8 yards/attempt in first three games—horrible. Last four totals in series were 44+.
Buccaneers (2-1) @ Panthers (2-1)— Carolina won seven of last eight in divisional rivalry, winning first meeting last four years (by 3-7-20-2 points); last three series totals at this site were all 35 or less. Bucs won last two weeks at home, with five takeaways and five TDs in five red zone trips- foes are just 12-35 (34.3%) on 3rd down against them. Carolina had three 80-yard scoring drives in Atlanta last week; they scored 27-21-27 pts so far this year, but Delhomme hurt elbow last week, was replaced by Carr. Not sure who starts here. Panthers scored three offensive TDs in each game—Patriots are the only other team that can say that. With Falcons, Saints struggling, this is first of two showdown games for NFC South title.
Seahawks (2-1) @ 49ers (2-1)— Seattle got swept in this series LY (20-14/24-14) after winning previous six meetings. Niners been outgained this year by 67-206-61 yards, are just 13-41 (31.7%) on third down, but they’re 2-1, winning pair of tight games vs other two NFC West rivals. Now come division king Seahawks, fresh off splitting pair of nailbiters. Alexander is playing with cracked bone on hand. Seattle defense yielded 421.5 yds/game last two weeks, but if they hadn’t messed up handoff in last 2:00 in Week 2 at Arizona, they’d probably be 3-0. Average total in Seattle’s last five visits here, 50.2. Hard to like Niner squad averaging just 223 yards/game.
Steelers (3-0) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Arizona coach Whisenhunt, ass’t Grimm both spent many years with Cowher in Steel City, were both bypassed for HC position so Rooney could hire minority candidate (who is obviously very capable, but lets face it, Steelers hire from within if Tomlin isn’t a minority). Anyway, Pitt is off to great 3-0 start, winning by combined score of 97-26, while Arizona rallied from 23-6 deficit in 4th quarter to tie Ravens behind Warner, only to lose on last-second FG, their second last-minute loss in three games, sandwiched around last-second win. For teams who haven’t met since ’97, Arizona coaches know an awful lot about their opponent. Leinart starts again for Cards, but Warner is ready in bullpen.
Chiefs (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)— San Diego plays its three rivals in AFC West over next three weeks; they sweep and they’ll be 4-2, and order is restored, but that has to begin here, vs lame Chief squad that has two offensive TDs on 32 drives. Bolts beat Bears, then got riddled by Brady/Favre for 604 passing yards in pair of road losses—Huard is closer to Grossman than Favre. Chiefs ran ball for just 64 yards/game, so they’ll have trouble keeping ball away from frustrated Charger side eager to explode in front of home fans. Bears faced Grossman/Jackson last two weeks- they move way up in class here. Home side won last five series games, with Chiefs losing last three visits to this site by 7-8-11 points.
Broncos (2-1) @ Colts (3-0)— Denver defense having trouble getting off field (foes 17-33 on third down last two games), which is bad news vs. Indy squad that scored nine TDs on 30 drives and is averaging 31 pg this year. Cutler is from Santa Claus, IN, coming home to face hot Colt squad that has wins by 31-2-6 points, winning only home game 41-10, and taking pair of road division games last two weeks. Broncos snuck out their first two games (15-14 @ Buffalo, in OT vs. Raiders), then got housed by Jaguars, as Jax had 67 snaps (running ball for 186 yards), Denver only 41. Oddly, Colts one of only five NFL teams without an 80+-yard TD drive so far this season. Average total in last six series games, 54.5.
Eagles (1-2) @ Giants (1-2)— Both teams had season-reviving wins last week; three of last four games in this division rivalry were decided by 3 points, or in OT, with average total in last five, 49.6. Eagles won three of last four at this site; they exploded on offense last week, gaining 315 yards on first 23 plays (15 first downs, five TDs) in 56-21 walkover. Giants used 21-0 second half to upset Skins, as Ward emerged as quality ballcarrier. Not sure what to think of Giant defense, after they allowed 846 yards in first two games, then held Redskins to 260 LW; they’ve lost field position battle last three weeks (by 5-3-15 yards), but Eli makes plays (Giants converted 22-41 on third down, an excellent 53.7%).
Monday, October 1
Patriots (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)-- New England crushing foes so far, winning by 24-24-31 points, scoring 38 in all three games-- they waxed Bengals 38-13 in Week 4 LY, outrushing Cincy 236-71, winning 63% of third down plays, scoring TDs on all three drives that started in Bengal territory. Cincy allowed 75 points in losing on road last two weeks (10 TDs on 25 drives); they’ve turned ball over nine times in three games. You look at Bengal defense that allowed 51 points in Cleveland, and you wonder how they’ll ever stop Brady-led passing game that has been sacked just three times in 91 pass attempts. But, Monday night home dogs are long-revered angle, so have to respect emotional, erratic hosts.
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NFL
Write-up
Week 4 - 2007 NFL season
Sunday, September 30
Raiders (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)— Miami won six of last seven series games (only loss in ’00 playoffs), and Raiders lost last four visits here, but Fish are 0-3, allowing 68 points in last two games; they’ve allowed 166 rushing yards per game, converted only 12 of 46 on third down. Oakland allowed 27.7 pg this year, but they have run ball for 386 yards in last two games, and their last two games both came down to last-second FGs- they’ve improved. McCown hurt his ankle last week, so Culpepper, dumped last year by Miami, could get nod at QB here. Dolphins have zero takeaways in their last two games (-6). All three Raider games went over total.
Texans (2-1) @ Falcons (0-3)— You can say what you want about Vick’s absence hurting Atlanta, but in first three games, they’ve allowed five TD drives of 80+ yards, and Vick didn’t play defense. Falcons have no takeaways in their last two games, and allowed 142 rushing yards/game. Texans scored 26 ppg in 2-1 start; they’re 12-24 on 3rd down in last two games, and started six less drives in the black zone (80+ yards from goal line) than their opponents. Houston QB Schaub was Vick’s backup in Atlanta, but was traded just weeks before the whole dog fighting thing became known, or else he’d still be with Falcons. Atlanta did score two TD’s last week, after scoring one in first two games.
Ravens (2-1) @ Browns (1-2)— Big question here, as always, is whether McNair’s is good to go; have faith in him on road, none in Boller. Home side won five of last six series games; Ravens are 1-2 in last three visits to old home (Ravens are former Browns); last four series totals at this site were 36 or less. Browns scored 75 points in last two games (10 TDs on 24 drives) but they have also allowed 35 pg, 176 rushing yards per game- opponents are 20-43 (46.5%) on third down. Ravens scored 20+ pts in all three games (2-1), with a 354-185 edge on ground; they’re 20-36 on 3rd down in last two games, but showed vulnerability to no-huddle attack vs. Cardinals last week.
Bears (2-1) @ Lions (2-1)— Greise is getting nod under center for Bears, after Grossman's horrid outing vs Dallas. Detroit allowed 15 first downs on first 23 Eagle plays last week (five TDs); Bears should light up board against them. Chicago won last four series games, but their last five visits here have all been decided by six or less points. Detroit has the usual Martz Madness stats: 413 yards/game, 25.7 pg, both very good, but 10 turnovers, typically bad- they were 4-22 on 3rd against Bears last year, in 34-7/26-21 losses. Bears need to do better than 3.35 yards per rush. Chicago has been outscored 52-10 in second half of its games.
Packers (3-0) @ Vikings (1-2)— Favre won three of last four visits to this site, after losing nine of the previous ten; last nine regular season meetings were all decided by six or less points. Pack is 3-0 despite running ball for just 57 yards/game- they’ve scored nine TD’s on 20 drives in last two games, after upsetting Eagles in opener due to Philly miscues in punt game. Vikes are good field, no-hit, scoring three TD’s on 31 drives this season, already using three QB’s. Average total in Pack’s last nine visits to this site, 50.2, but under is 3-0 in ’07 Viking games (27-37-23). Vikings are allowing just 67 yds/game on ground, have 11 sacks, but when your third-string QB starts the third game, it ain’t good.
Rams (0-3) @ Cowboys (3-0)— No Steven Jackson, three starters are out on OL, and Rams are 0-3, scoring just 3.6 points/red zone trip, so not much good news as they travel to Dallas to face 3-0 Pokes, who’ve scored 86 second half points, are 44% on third down, and score 5.5 pts/red zone trip. Rams allowing 152 rushing yards/game, bad news vs. diverse Dallas offense that scored 13 TDs on 33 drives (Rams have three in 32). Only caution here is that giving 13 with self-satisfied (after Chicago win) Cowboys is asking to be bitten by gigantic letdown against hungry underdog that does have talent that belies 0-3 mark. Home side lost last six series games, with Rams winning last four visits here; their last loss here was in ’81.
Jets (1-2) @ Bills (0-3)— Losman is out, as are various others, as bad news mounts for Buffalo squad that scored just 24 points in three games (two TDs on 27 drives), is 13-37 (35%) on third down and is starting a rookie QB who couldn’t win game in Pac-10 LY. That said, Jets have been outsacked 10-1, and have no plays of 20+ yards in two games Pennington started (they had four (vs a . strong Raven defense) in game he didn’t play), and are allowing 121.3 rushing yards/game. Buffalo run defense has allowed 171-184-177 rushing yards in its three games, so Jones/Washington combo could have big day. Bill passing game averaged 2.0/3.0/2.8 yards/attempt in first three games—horrible. Last four totals in series were 44+.
Buccaneers (2-1) @ Panthers (2-1)— Carolina won seven of last eight in divisional rivalry, winning first meeting last four years (by 3-7-20-2 points); last three series totals at this site were all 35 or less. Bucs won last two weeks at home, with five takeaways and five TDs in five red zone trips- foes are just 12-35 (34.3%) on 3rd down against them. Carolina had three 80-yard scoring drives in Atlanta last week; they scored 27-21-27 pts so far this year, but Delhomme hurt elbow last week, was replaced by Carr. Not sure who starts here. Panthers scored three offensive TDs in each game—Patriots are the only other team that can say that. With Falcons, Saints struggling, this is first of two showdown games for NFC South title.
Seahawks (2-1) @ 49ers (2-1)— Seattle got swept in this series LY (20-14/24-14) after winning previous six meetings. Niners been outgained this year by 67-206-61 yards, are just 13-41 (31.7%) on third down, but they’re 2-1, winning pair of tight games vs other two NFC West rivals. Now come division king Seahawks, fresh off splitting pair of nailbiters. Alexander is playing with cracked bone on hand. Seattle defense yielded 421.5 yds/game last two weeks, but if they hadn’t messed up handoff in last 2:00 in Week 2 at Arizona, they’d probably be 3-0. Average total in Seattle’s last five visits here, 50.2. Hard to like Niner squad averaging just 223 yards/game.
Steelers (3-0) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Arizona coach Whisenhunt, ass’t Grimm both spent many years with Cowher in Steel City, were both bypassed for HC position so Rooney could hire minority candidate (who is obviously very capable, but lets face it, Steelers hire from within if Tomlin isn’t a minority). Anyway, Pitt is off to great 3-0 start, winning by combined score of 97-26, while Arizona rallied from 23-6 deficit in 4th quarter to tie Ravens behind Warner, only to lose on last-second FG, their second last-minute loss in three games, sandwiched around last-second win. For teams who haven’t met since ’97, Arizona coaches know an awful lot about their opponent. Leinart starts again for Cards, but Warner is ready in bullpen.
Chiefs (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)— San Diego plays its three rivals in AFC West over next three weeks; they sweep and they’ll be 4-2, and order is restored, but that has to begin here, vs lame Chief squad that has two offensive TDs on 32 drives. Bolts beat Bears, then got riddled by Brady/Favre for 604 passing yards in pair of road losses—Huard is closer to Grossman than Favre. Chiefs ran ball for just 64 yards/game, so they’ll have trouble keeping ball away from frustrated Charger side eager to explode in front of home fans. Bears faced Grossman/Jackson last two weeks- they move way up in class here. Home side won last five series games, with Chiefs losing last three visits to this site by 7-8-11 points.
Broncos (2-1) @ Colts (3-0)— Denver defense having trouble getting off field (foes 17-33 on third down last two games), which is bad news vs. Indy squad that scored nine TDs on 30 drives and is averaging 31 pg this year. Cutler is from Santa Claus, IN, coming home to face hot Colt squad that has wins by 31-2-6 points, winning only home game 41-10, and taking pair of road division games last two weeks. Broncos snuck out their first two games (15-14 @ Buffalo, in OT vs. Raiders), then got housed by Jaguars, as Jax had 67 snaps (running ball for 186 yards), Denver only 41. Oddly, Colts one of only five NFL teams without an 80+-yard TD drive so far this season. Average total in last six series games, 54.5.
Eagles (1-2) @ Giants (1-2)— Both teams had season-reviving wins last week; three of last four games in this division rivalry were decided by 3 points, or in OT, with average total in last five, 49.6. Eagles won three of last four at this site; they exploded on offense last week, gaining 315 yards on first 23 plays (15 first downs, five TDs) in 56-21 walkover. Giants used 21-0 second half to upset Skins, as Ward emerged as quality ballcarrier. Not sure what to think of Giant defense, after they allowed 846 yards in first two games, then held Redskins to 260 LW; they’ve lost field position battle last three weeks (by 5-3-15 yards), but Eli makes plays (Giants converted 22-41 on third down, an excellent 53.7%).
Monday, October 1
Patriots (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)-- New England crushing foes so far, winning by 24-24-31 points, scoring 38 in all three games-- they waxed Bengals 38-13 in Week 4 LY, outrushing Cincy 236-71, winning 63% of third down plays, scoring TDs on all three drives that started in Bengal territory. Cincy allowed 75 points in losing on road last two weeks (10 TDs on 25 drives); they’ve turned ball over nine times in three games. You look at Bengal defense that allowed 51 points in Cleveland, and you wonder how they’ll ever stop Brady-led passing game that has been sacked just three times in 91 pass attempts. But, Monday night home dogs are long-revered angle, so have to respect emotional, erratic hosts.
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