Sunday Trends and Indexes 09/23

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, September 23

Good Luck on day #266 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up college football Saturday

College football rarely disappoints; even on a day lacking a lot of big-name matchups, there was a lot of excitement......

13) Wake Forest trailed Maryland 24-3 late in third quarter, Terps had ball, then threw a 100-yard INT for a TD, and went on to lose 31-24 in OT, in just a horrible defeat for Maryland.

12) Then there was Iowa State, who led 35-24 with5:20 left, but lost 36-35, giving up kick return and defensive score for a TD to lose their seventh consecutive road game. Good luck in the Big 12 if you can't beat Northern Iowa and Toledo.

11) Ball State had ball and 37-28 lead (they missed a PAT for 38), then threw INT for TD, and went on to lose 41-40, as one of their receivers dropped a sure TD with 0:22 left. Yuk. Cards gained 588 yards in this game; pollsters had better drop the Huskers out of the top 25. This was a poor performance.

By the way, Ball State QB Davis, who is pretty good, does not put his fingers on threads when throwing a football, very unusual. Former USC/Bears' QB Vince Evans did same thing.

10) At this point in time, Notre Dame wouldn't win Sun Belt Conference; Arkansas State is better than they are. Charlie Weis makes $3M a year? For what, exactly?

9) Ball State scored 40, Duke scored 43 (36 in first half), Texas Tech scored 45 points, all on the road. They all lost.

8) Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell was 45-66 for 645 yards, in a game his team led most of way, but lost at the end. How does a team gain 719 yards and lose? It ain't easy.

7) Wyoming turned ball over seven times, gave up a TD on a kick return, and still won 34-33 at Ohio U, in a game they had trailed 20-6 at halftime. Also very unusual.

6) UCLA is now down to their 3rd-string QB, a walk-on, after backup Cowan hurt his knee vs Washington. Expect Bruins to go to some kind of direct snap to RB system, the way they do it in Arkansas with McFadden.

5) Weirdest play of day came at end of first half in Minnesota when Gophers blocked FG, were running for apparent TD, but the kid running with the ball, who wasn't going to be caught, simply dropped the ball on the 20-yard line. And you wonder why Minnesota is 0-4? Thats why.

4) Appalachian State lost 42-31 at Wofford, so there's another team Michigan should never schedule.

3) Matthew Slater, son of Rams' Hall of Famer Jackie Slater, ran kick back for TD in UCLA's win........ Last week in Lincoln, on his 56th birthday, ABC cameras caught USC's Pete Carroll throwing a football 56-58 yards into end zone while he played catch. Isn't that pretty impressive for a 56-year old?................. Catch a replay of LSU's fake FG for a TD; great execution....... .........Only 14 D-I head coaches call their own offensive plays.

2) Arkansas ran ball for 338 yards, got a defensive TD, safety and free kick return for TD, and somehow lost by 12 points. This doesn't usually happen. Is Houston Nutt on thin ice?

1) Now that Michigan has beaten Penn State and has actual momentum, Pasadena folks have to be terrified that they'll win the Big 11 and ruin this season's Rose Bowl. Who the hell is going to want to see Michigan get pounded by USC, after a 39-7 home loss to Oregon, and a loss to Appalachian State? Hell, I'd rather see freakin' Wofford in the Rose Bowl.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

NFL trends to think about for Week 3

-- Redskins are 5-14 vs spread as favorite in division games.

-- 49ers are 3-7-1 vs spread as an underdog vs AFC teams.

-- Cardinals are 5-18 in non-divisional road games.

-- Falcons covered two of last 10 as divisional home dog.

-- Bills covered seven of last nine divisional road games.

-- Eagles covered two of last seven as home fave against non-divisional home games.

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(Earlier “Six-pack” is repeated here.)

NFL trends to consider for Week 3

-- Colts covered one of last seven as division road favorite.

-- Steelers covered six of last eight against NFC teams.

-- Raiders covered four of last fifteen as a home favorite.

-- Washington is 5-14 as favorite vs NFC East rivals.

-- Seahawks are 7-2 as home favorite vs AFC teams.

-- Lions are 10-6 as non-division road underdog.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

San Francisco at Pittsburgh
The 49ers are hoping for their first 3-0 start since 1998, but face a difficult road through Pittsburgh. New coach Mike Tomlin has Pittsburgh looking more like the Super Bowl team of two years ago. The Steelers have allowed just 10 points this season -- 10 fewer than any other team in the league. Overall Pittsburgh is ranked third in total defense while holding opponents to just 222.0 yards per game. And the offense has been just as good, ranking in the top five in scoring (60 points) and rushing (195.0 yards per game). Willie Parker ranks third in the league in rushing (235 yards), including 126 against the Chiefs last weekend that pushed the Steelers' record to 14-1 when he tops the century mark. Keying on Parker hasn't helped, either, as QB Ben Roethlisberger has picked up five TD passes against only one INT, a reversal from last year's zero-TD, five-INT start. The Niners are fortunate to be 2-0 after close wins over Arizona and St. Louis in which the offense has struggled. That is likely to catch up to them on Sunday and makes the Steelers a good pick (-9) to cover according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

Game 397-398: Indianapolis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.397; Houston 136.458
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Over

Game 399-400: San Diego at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.277; Green Bay 135.053
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+5 1/2); Over

Game 401-402: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.029; Kansas City 127.885
Dunkel Line: Even; 30
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Detroit at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 127.880; Philadelphia 129.978
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+7); Under

Game 405-406: Buffalo at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.865; New England 142.566
Dunkel Line: New England by 14; 40
Vegas Line: New England by 17; 42
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+17); Under

Game 407-408: Miami at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.017; NY Jets 130.073
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 6; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 124.439; Pittsburgh 140.319
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 16; 32
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9; 38
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9); Under

Game 411-412: Arizona at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 124.960; Baltimore 131.851
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 39
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9; 35
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+9); Over

Game 413-414; St. Louis at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 122.171; Tampa Bay 127.798
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 415-416: Jacksonville at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 131.755; Denver 131.879
Dunkel Line: Even; 30
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Cincinnati at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 132.394; Seattle 130.364
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 56
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Cleveland at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.871; Oakland 120.250
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Carolina at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 128.222; Atlanta 124.929
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+4); Over

Game 423-424: NY Giants at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 123.334; Washington 131.702
Dunkel Line: Washington by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

Game 425-426: Dallas at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.736; Chicago 134.948
Dunkel Line: Even; 45
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

Game 427-428: Tennessee at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 132.957; New Orleans 129.033
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+5); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 3

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Sunday, September 23
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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 0) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at GREEN BAY (2 - 0) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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MINNESOTA (1 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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DETROIT (2 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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BUFFALO (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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MIAMI (0 - 2) at NY JETS (0 - 2) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at BALTIMORE (1 - 1) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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ST LOUIS (0 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 0) - 9/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CINCINNATI (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 43-67 ATS (-30.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CLEVELAND (1 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 2) - 9/23/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CAROLINA (1 - 1) at ATLANTA (0 - 2) - 9/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 0) - 9/23/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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DALLAS (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (1 - 1) - 9/23/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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Monday, September 24
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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Sunday, September 23rd

Indianapolis at Houston, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 7-1 Under in September
Houston: 7-17 ATS off a win

San Diego at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 7-2 ATS off a loss
Green Bay: 9-2 Under off a win

Minnesota at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Kansas City: 7-0 Under in September

Detroit at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 8-15 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
Philadelphia: 24-11 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 8-2 Under in the first month of the season
New England: 6-1 ATS after scoring 35+ points

Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Miami: 2-10 ATS vs. division opponents
NY Jets: 10-3 ATS after scoring 14 points or less

San Francisco at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 5-10 ATS vs. AFC North opponents
Pittsburgh: 14-2 Over in home games

Arizona at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 5-1 Over off BB ATS wins
Baltimore: 5-11 ATS off a home game

St. Louis at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 12-30 ATS away off an Under
Tampa Bay: 6-0 Under off a win by 10+ points

Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 12-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3
Denver: 1-8 ATS in home games

Cincinnati at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS away after scoring 30+ points
Seattle: 8-21 ATS off a division loss by 7 points or less

Cleveland at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Cleveland: 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Oakland: 3-11 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Carolina at Atlanta, 4:15 ET
Carolina: 28-14 Under in the first month of the season
Atlanta: 9-23 ATS at home after allowing 14 points or less

NY Giants at Washington, 4:15 ET
NY Giants: 6-2 ATS off a home loss by 21+ points
Washington: 6-1 Over at home vs. NY Giants

Dallas at Chicago, 8:15 ET NBC
Dallas: 5-1 Over in September
Chicago: 7-1 ATS off BB Unders


Monday, September 24th

Tennessee at New Orleans, 8:30 ET ESPN
Tennessee: 12-3 ATS as an underdog
New Orleans: 22-9 Under off BB road games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Week 3 - 2007 NFL season


Sunday, September 23

Colts (2-0) @ Texans (2-0)— Texans ran ball for 191 yards in 27-24 win over Colts in Week 16 LY; Houston ended nine-game skid vs. Colts with that win, and are last team to beat Indy in game that counted. Colts only had six possessions in that game, after gaining 515 yards in earlier home win vs. Texans. Hosts are now Cinderella early contender, scoring 34 unanswered points at Carolina last week, after early 14-0 deficit. Colts are 4-1 at Reliant, winning by 20,3,9,18 points. Texans have seven takeaways in two games, were +2 in turnovers both weeks. Success of Panther WR Smith last wk ominous with Harrison, Wayne coming to Houston.

Chargers (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)— Now that San Diego has brutal opening games (Bears, Pats) out of way, they need to pick up level of play vs. unbeaten Green Bay squad that has allowed only two TD’s on 21 drives. Chargers has just two plays of 20+ yards so far; they’ve run ball for only 129 yards, and turned ball over five times. GB has been +1 in turnovers in both games, winning first game when Eagles muffed pair of punts. If you’re grading QB’s, Favre rates large edge over Phillip Rivers. Pack won seven of last eight in seldom-played series, winning last three by combined score of 111-34.

Vikings (1-1) @ Chiefs (0-2)— Minnesota has three defensive TDs in two games, but offense only has two; young QB Jackson was knocked silly late in Detroit game, Bollinger, who played for Edwards with Jets, mopped up. Rookie RB Peterson has helped Viking run game (team has 262 rushing yards), but they needed defensive score just to get game to OT LW. Chiefs have just 500 total yds in two games, with one TD, 12 three/outs on 21 drives. Retooled KC offensive line already allowed seven sacks in two games. Croyle mopped up for woozy Huard in Chicago. Under is 13-1-2 in Chiefs’ last 16 home openers.

Lions (2-0) @ Eagles (0-2)—Philly’s banged-up secondary very vulnerable vs. prolific Detroit aerial attack (62-92/609 yards thru air in two wins) but in past, Johnson’s blitzes have been effective vs. Martz Madness. Reid now 7-11 in Weeks 1-2 as Eagle coach, 81-44 in all other games, so expect Eagles to get rolling at some point, but this is on short work week, tough turnaround, after physical game vs. division rival. Lions faced McCown/Jackson in first two games, not exactly Fouts/Marino, so McNabb could have big game here, but victory-starved Lions believe in Kitna, their linebacker-like QB.

Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)— Pats playing with chip on shoulder after SpyGate, but this game falls between pair of prime time dates, could letdown be possible, against division foe they’ve beaten 12 of last 13 times, winning last seven, with five of the seven by 14+ points? Bills lost last six visits to this site, by average of 13 pts- they’ve gained total of just 407 yards in first two games, averaging 2.0/3.0 yards per pass attempt. Moss has made NE offense more explosive (10.6/7.5 yds/pass attempt), and they’ve also run for 139 ypg so far. Last year, Bills went 3/out on 10 of 19 drives vs. Pats, scoring just one TD.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Jets (0-2)—Jets won five of last six series tilts, winning 20-17/13-10 LY; Miami lost last fifteen games vs. Jets when they scored 17 or less points- they scored 30-21-23-24 in last four series wins. Fish allowed 357 rush yards in first two games, and have five TO’s last week, as Green struggles to get used to his new team- they have just 127 rushing yards in two games themselves. Clemens was 19-37/210 passing in Baltimore LW; he showed bigger arm than his predecessor. Well-coached Jets have just four penalties in two games; LY, they had just 12 points in four trips to Miami red zone—that needs to improve.

49ers (2-0) @ Steelers (2-0)—We know winning is good, and that losing isn’t, but in their two wins, Niners have been outgained 261-194/392-186; they’ve averaged 3.0/3.2 yards per pass attempt, are 8-26 on third down, and have a grand total of 170 passing yards. Steelers have outscored their foes 34-7/26-3, are 17-30 on third down, averaged 6.5/6.6 yds/pass try and outgained foes 365-221/420-223,, although they did get only two TD’s in six visits to Buffalo red zone last week. Off of two divisional wins in which they struggled but still won, 49ers will need to play much better in this game to even stay close.

Cardinals (1-1) @ Ravens (1-1)— Have to check and see who is Raven QB, since laying any points with Boller is risky business. Baltimore had 11 penalties for 100 yards last week, needed pass dropped in EZ by Jets to avoid tie in last 2:00; this after they turned ball over six times. Cardinals split pair of 3-point games that both came down to last minute; they have 293 yards rushing in two games, good sign that new regime has improved the OL, and therefore James. With Whisenhunt/Grimm being from Steelers, they’re familiar with Ravens. Favorites of six or more points are 5-9 vs. spread so far this season.

Rams (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)—St Louis lost first two games, both at home, after leading both at half; they’ve turned ball over five times already, converted just 10-29 on third down, scoring two TD’s in six red zone trips– they’ve also scored just 16.8 pg in losing first road game the last five years. Without injured Pace/ Incognito on left side of line, Rams ran ball for just 44 times for 140 yards (3.2/carry), bad news when opposing Tampa defense that held Saints to 99 yards rushing last week. Garcia was 10-16/ 243 passing with no sacks last week, an amazing 15.2 yards/ pass.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)—Denver won both its games on walk-off FGs, which accounts for low spread here. Home side won five of last seven series games, with Jags 1-3 in last four visits here, with losses, by 8,25,13 points. Garrard has led Jags to just two TD’s on 18 drives, though they’ve done decent job moving chains on 3rd down (12-26), while Cutler is just 9-27 on 3rd down. Denver had three TD’s, seven FGs tried; they’ve scored three TD’s in seven trips inside red zone. Under is 6-2 in Jaguars’ last eight road openers. Only first half TD Broncos allowed so far came on a punt return. I think this spread is light.

Bengals (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)—Seahawks sleptwalked through first quarter of both games so far, but outscored foes 23-3 in second half of games, until they botched handoff in last 2:00 and blew game they had to think was theirs, even after trailing 17-0. Now erratic Bengals come to town; Cincy scored 72 points in first two games, allowed 71- Browns had 554 yards and 51 points last week- only 11 of their 63 plays came on 3rd down. Seattle passing game averaged 7.8/7.4 yds/attempt in first two games, should do some serious damage vs. porous Bengal secondary. Cincy has home night game vs. Patriots next week.

Browns (1-1) @ Raiders (0-2)—Cleveland won last three series games, 13-7/9-7/24-21, coming back from 21-10 halftime deficit to win LY’s game (Raiders were 9-24/46 passing), with Browns starting four drives in Oakland territory, enjoying 14-yard edge in field position. This year’s Raiders have rallied from 17-0/17-3 deficits to take fourth quarter leads, before losing- they’ve already scored four TD’s, after getting twelve all of last year. Anderson was ridiculous 20-33/328 with five TD’s last week, as Browns averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and gained 554 yards. Cleveland has allowed 79 points in two games.

Panthers (1-1) @ Falcons (0-2)— Interesting to see home crowd reaction to 0-2 Falcons in first home game of post-Vick era. Atlanta has one TD in two games (17 drives), and run ball for only 89 ypg. Immobile Harrington has been sacked 13 times in two games, amid rumors team is looking into signing even less mobile Leftwich. Carolina won three of last four series games, after having lost 13 of previous 18; they’ve won last two visits here, 44-11/10-3. Panthers were up 14-0 in home opener last week, before Texans went on 34-0 run- they’ve already turned ball over five times this season.

Giants (0-2) @ Redskins (2-0)—After tough Monday night road win over division rival Eagles, Redskins find out if they can stand prosperity as Giants limp into town, having allowed 80 points, 620 passing yards (13.4/7.3 ypp) in losing first two games. Big Blue LBs were abused all day by Pack receivers. Giants swept this series LY (19-3/34-28, with +9/+10 edges in field position) but lost two of last three visits here, as home side won five of last six series games. Giants were 17-30 on 3rd down vs. Skins LY, are 13-25 so far this year, as Manning hasn’t been a problem, their porous defense has.

Cowboys (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)— Classic battle of offense vs. defense, as Bears forced 12 three/outs on 23 opponent drives this season, while Dallas scored 82 points in winning first two games, with 55 of 82 points scored in second half, offsetting 18 penalties they’ve had (for 156 yards). Cowboys have 308 rushing yards, 522 passing, as Romo uses all his weapons, but he is way in class here. Bears held San Diego to 263 yards, shutting them out in first half. Problem for Chicago is if opponents don’t punt to Hester, offense takes major hit. Grossman averaged 4.7/2.8 yds per pass attempt so far this season- not good.


Monday, September 24

Titans (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)—Tennessee won at Jacksonville, lost 22-20 to Colts, have to be impressed with that start, but now a non-division road game, vs. desperate Saint club that won 23-3 in LY’s Week 3 home opener, albeit in more emotional climate than this will be. NO off to 10-41/14-31 start, getting outscored 52-0 if you combine second half in Indy with first half in Tampa. Saints allowed 9.6 ypp vs. Manning (excusable) then 15.2 ypp vs. Garcia (shockingly hideous)-- doubt Young can exploit that weakness although his legs provide a whole new set of questions. Brees has already thrown 31 incompletions— way too many.

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[pm530]

NFL

NFL injury report for Week 3


Steve McNair (Bal) – The Baltimore Ravens’ top quarterback should be able to go against the Arizona Cardinals. McNair missed last week’s game with a sore groin but practiced all week. He turned the ball over four times in Week 1. Oddsmakers have the Ravens listed as 9-point favorites.

Andre Johnson (Hou) – The Houston Texans’ top receiver will not play this weekend. Johnson sprained his left knee in the fourth quarter last Sunday. He has accumulated 14 catches for 262 yards and three touchdowns in two contests this season. Houston is a 6-point underdog against the Indianapolis Colts.

Tarvaris Jackson (Min) – The young quarterback may not start against the Kansas City Chiefs due to a sore groin. Though Minnesota head coach Brad Childress won’t rule Jackson out, Kelly Holcomb has been taking all the snaps with the first-string offense. The sports books have the Vikings as 3-point dogs this weekend.

Plaxico Burress (NYG) – Eli Manning’s favorite target may not play Sunday. Burress missed three days of practice this week with a right ankle injury. He is considered a game-time decision against the Washington Redskins. Burress has scored four of New York’s five touchdowns. The Giants are 3 ½-point road dogs this weekend.

Chad Pennington (NYJ) – The New York Jets will have their No. 1 quarterback back this weekend. Pennington sat out against Baltimore because of a badly bruised ankle suffered in Week 1. The Jets are giving 3 points at home to the Miami Dolphins.

Zach Thomas (Mia) – The Fish may be without a key defensive starter on Sunday. Thomas, a Pro Bowl linebacker, is doubtful due to a concussion from last weekend.

Greg Olsen (Chi) – Chicago’s first-round draft pick is expected to play his first NFL game this weekend. The tight end from the University of Miami did not play the last two weeks because of a knee injury. Oddsmakers have the Bears listed as 3-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys.

Terence Newman (Dal) – The Dallas Cowboys have not had their top cornerback the last two weeks. He’s considered a game-time decision against Chicago. Newman suffered a partially torn plantar fascia in his right foot in during the preseason.

Lito Sheppard (Phi) – The Pro Bowl defensive back missed last week’s game and isn’t expected to play against the Detroit Lions. Sheppard didn’t practice all week because of a sprained knee. Philadelphia is giving 5 ½-points this weekend.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Sunday, September 23

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Tips and Trends
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are reporting that the mood surrounding Houston players and coaches is extremely upbeat after their surprising 2-0 start to the season. This is a Texans team that believes they can go 3-0 as they were the last team to beat the defending champion Indianapolis Colts 27-24 as a-9 point underdog last season. The Texans are riding a 4-game winning streak (4-0 ATS) for the first time in franchise history. EDGE: TEXANS
As reported last week, despite getting the SU win, the Colts are not as dominant on natural grass or on the road. They are 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 road games, but it should be noted that this game will be played indoors. SLIGHT EDGE: TEXANS
Indianapolis team insiders are again concerned about the team's rush defense that was torched for 141 yards last week against Tennessee and 4.1 yards per carry. With Houston adding some good balance to their offense, Indy cannot afford to focus solely on stopping the run. EDGE: TEXANS
Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee sprain) will miss Sunday’s game. Johnson is the team's leading receiver and one of the top young stars in the NFL. He has formed a great connection with new QB Matt Schaub and will be sorely missed, as rookie Jacoby Jones (33 total receiving yards) will start in his place. BIG EDGE: COLTS
Houston team insiders have been most impressed with the play of the Texan defensive line, which has limited Kansas City RB Larry Johnson to just 43 yards on 10 carries and then held Carolina to 66 rushing yards. EDGE: TEXANS



San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (CBS | 1 PM ET)

This is a brutal travel spot for the Chargers on their second straight long road trip after heading to New England last Sunday night and now on to Wisconsin. EDGE: PACKERS
San Diego team insiders are very concerned about the team's offense, which was forecasted to put up a lot of points this season. The average of 14 points over their first two games this season has many inside the organization believing that they need to go back to their old ways of a more conservative gameplan. Even more concerning has been the play of the defense, which allowed New England to out-gain the Chargers by a whopping 407-201 edge. EDGE: PACKERS
Packers insiders are boasting about their defensive play, which has been nothing short of sensational this season. Last season, the Packers ranked No. 10 against the run - allowing just 3.3 yards per rush - and so far this season, the defense held the Eagles to just 13 first downs and 283 yards and limited the Giants to 13 points. EDGE: PACKERS
One Green Bay team insider is “very concerned” about the Packers rushing attack. Last week against a very suspect New York run stopping unit, the Packers managed just 83 yards in 29 carries (2.9 average), which will be a huge concern when they face a team with a strong secondary. Even more concerning is that Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson might get going this week. LT averaged 113 by himself last season, but he has just 68 in two games (including 43 last Sunday) and is gaining only 1.9 yards per carry. SLIGHT EDGE: CHARGERS
San Diego is an impressive 16-9 SU & 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 road games.
The Packers are 11-15 SU and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.



Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Chiefs won all four games last season against NFC teams (West) while Minnesota was 0-4 against the AFC East. SLIGHT EDGE: CHIEFS
One league insider believes that Kansas City may be one of the worst offensive teams in recent history, managing just 13 points over their last two games and only eight points in their four preseason games. The offense had 219 total yards in the opener (3 points and 4 turnovers) and only 281 against Chicago (10 points and 2 turnovers). After two weeks, the Chiefs are 31st in points per game, 26th in yards per play, 28th in yards per game, and 28th in first downs. EDGE: VIKINGS
This is an off-surface for the Vikings, who are far less effective on natural grass than on turf. EDGE: CHIEFS
Vikings coach Brad Childress said QB Tarvaris Jackson (groin strain) is "beat up pretty good," and backup Kelly Holcomb is expected to start. Holcomb has yet to start for the Vikings and has only still taken 50 percent of the snaps in practice this week. EDGE: CHIEFS
Minnesota is just 6-11 SU & 7-10 ATS in its last 17 road games.
Kansas City is 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home games.



Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Detroit's defense was impressive in the opener against the run, allowing 92 yards (4.0 yards per carry) to Oakland, but allowed Minnesota 123 rush yards in Week 2. SLIGHT EDGE: LIONS
Team insiders believe that Detroit RB Kevin Jones will likely play against the Eagles. Jones is coming back from a foot injury and missed the first two games. The Lions have also been without power back T.J. Duckett, who was out because of a high ankle sprain. If the Lions get both of those players back, it will add more balance to an offense that had 415 total yards (359 passing), especially considering that Philly has a strong secondary that could give the Lions trouble. SLIGHT EDGE: LIONS
The Philadelphia offense is struggling offensively, scoring just one touchdown in eight quarters. The Eagles converted just 4 of 16 third-down attempts Monday night and will need to do a lot better if they wish to compete with this potentially lethal Detroit offense. EDGE: LIONS
Detroit is 3-13 SU & 7-9 ATS in its last 16 road games.
Philadelphia is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite and 7-11 ATS in its last 18 at home.



Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (CBS | 1 PM ET)

How’s this for domination: Pittsburgh out-gained Buffalo 239-50 (including 155-9 on passing yards) in the first half! The Bills got out-gained by a whopping 470-184 to Denver in the opener but still should have won the game. That does not bode well against the top team in the NFL in Week 3. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Team insiders remained concerned about a Buffalo run stopping unit that ranked 28th against the run last season, allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per carry. Denver got 171 rush yards (5.3 yards per carry), and the Steelers had 184 rushing yards. EDGE: PATRIOTS
New England QB Tom Brady is putting up some eye-popping numbers so far this season. In two games, he’s 47-of-59 for 576 yards (79.7%) with 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception. EDGE: PATRIOTS
The Bills are 2-0 ATS the last two times they've visited New England.
Buffalo is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog.



Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are beginning to get concerned about a Miami defense that has allowed 191 rushing yards to Washington and 166 to Dallas in their first two games. That could be compounded by an ailing Zach Thomas, who suffered a slight concussion last week. EDGE: JETS
Miami team insiders are also concerned with the aging Trent Green, who many believe “looks washed up” after throwing 4 interceptions last week. If Green is not able to produce, Miami will be in trouble considering that the team's ground game has been terrible this season, as RB Ronnie Brown had just 33 yards on 11 carries last Sunday. EDGE: JETS
Miami is 18-14-1 ATS on the road the last four seasons.
The Jets are 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Dolphins.



San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

League insiders believe that San Francisco's 2-0 record is misleading. The 49ers beat Arizona on a last-second touchdown in the opener despite managing only 194 total yards while last week they got out-gained 392-186 in a 17-16 win at St. Louis. They also had less than half the amount of first downs as the Rams (8-20) and gave up 331 passing yards. BIG EDGE: STEELERS
This is a brutal travel spot for the 49ers, making their second straight long road trip after heading to St. Louis last weekend. EDGE: STEELERS
The 49ers are 11-5 ATS their last 16 as an underdog.
The Steelers are on an 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS run since last season.



Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders have been impressed with the Cardinals defense this season. Going into the season, the Cardinals were focusing on stopping the run, and they held Seattle to just 92 yards (3.8 yards per carry) in Week 2. EDGE: CARDINALS
Some league insiders believe that this matchup will be a pleasure to watch as Arizona’s Pro Bowl wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald go against one of the best secondaries in the league. SLIGHT EDGE: RAVENS
Ravens coach Brian Billick said that he fully expects QB Steve McNair (groin) to start against the Cardinals. McNair gives the Ravens more experience at the QB position, which will be needed against an opportunistic Cardinals defense. EDGE: RAVENS
Arizona is 5-28 SU & 11-22 ATS in its last 33 road games.
The OVER is 10-4-1 in Arizona's last 15 games.
The Ravens are 22-7 SU, 18-11 ATS their last 29 at home.



St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

St. Louis needs a big performance from RB Steven Jackson, who has been a major disappointment through the first two games and was challenged by head coach Scott Linehan to carry the load this week. Insiders expect Jackson to struggle again behind a patchwork offensive line and against a defense that held New Orleans RBs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush in check last Sunday. EDGE: BUCS
The Rams are just 11-16 ATS in their last 27 on the road.
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS its last 5 as a favorite and just 5-14 SU & 7-11-1 ATS in its last 19 games overall.



Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (CBS | 4:05 ET)

Jacksonville insiders are beginning to get concerned about this so-called “revival” of the team's offense that has managed just 23 points in two games. However, one league insder believes that Denver is an ideal opponent for the Jaguars, as the Broncos defense has allowed 312 rushing yards in two games while allowing 5 yards per rush. That definitely plays to the Jaguars' strength. EDGE: JAGUARS
One Jacksonville insider is becoming increasingly concerned about the mounting injuries to the defense. Injuries have sidelined defensive end Reggie Hayward (torn Achilles) while defensive end Paul Spicer missed much of the preseason with a back injury and then safety Gerald Sensabaugh left Sunday's game when he aggravated a shoulder injury and is also out. EDGE: BRONCOS
This is the first road game for Jacksonville. Last year the Jags were only 2-6 SU & ATS away from home. EDGE: BRONCOS
Under head coach Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville is 20-13-1 ATS as an underdog.
Denver is a miserable 1-11 ATS its last 12 home games.
The UNDER is 2-0 the last two times these teams have met, with Denver winning 20-7 in 2005 and the Jaguars winning 7-6 in 2004.


Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (CBS | 4:05 PM ET)

There should be a lot of points in this contest as Seattle’s defense (which gave up over 600 yards to two weak offenses in Tampa and Arizona) goes up against one of the league's best offenses. Over the last 2 years, the Bengals have averaged 25 points per game. BIG EDGE: OVER
One Cincinnati team insider called this season's version of the Bengals defense “a joke” and went as far as saying they are worse than last season’s unit that was second worst in the NFL. Last week, they allowed 554 yards and 51 points to the Cleveland Browns a team that was 31st in total offense last season. However, other team insider disagreed by explaining that their defense had to play most of the game without starting LB Ahmad Brooks and CB Johnathan Joseph. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
The Bengals are 13-8 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Seattle's last 7 games.
The Seahawks are 17-3 SU & 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 at home.



Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (CBS | 4:05 ET)

Terrible situational sandwich spot for the Browns playing their first road game after hosting a pair of divisional rivals and then hosting their third division rival next week. EDGE: RAIDERS
Despite last Sunday's surprising offensive performance, Cleveland insiders are still concerned about a defensive unit that gave up 531 total yards to Cincinnati and 206 rushing yards to Pittsburgh in the season opener. EDGE: RAIDERS
Cleveland is 16-24-1 ATS as an underdog and 5-19 SU & 10-14 ATS in its last 24 road games.
Oakland is 20-43 ATS in its last 63 games.



Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (FOX | 4:15 ET)

This could be Falcons QB Joey Harrington's last start for the team after they signed Byron Leftwich this week. Harrington has not performed well, throwing two inteceptions with no touchdowns and getting sacked 13 times - six more times than any other QB in the league. BIG EDGE: PANTHERS
Another concern for Atlanta is the kicking game, as 47-year-old Morten Andersen was signed to help put some points on the board. Starting kicker Matt Prater has made just 1-of-4 field-goal attempts this season. EDGE: PANTHERS
Carolina is 21-9-2 ATS in its last 32 road games.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games.
The UNDER is also 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.



New York Giants at Washington Redskins (FOX | 4:15 ET)

New York insiders are already venting their frustration about this Giants defense that one insider classified “as the worst in the league.” In the season opener, they gave up 478 yards in a 45-35 loss at Dallas, and last Sunday their secondary was torched for 285 passing yards by Green Bay's Brett Favre. They are last in passing yards allowed, third-down efficiency and points allowed. BIG EDGE: REDSKINS
In addition to New York’s problem in the secondary, the run-stopping unit has been just as bad. The Giants defense is allowing 118 yards per game (4.1 yards per carry), which will be a huge concern against a powerful running team like Washington. EDGE: REDSKINS
Team insiders believe that the Washington offense is a lot better than early results have dictated. Despite scoring only 16 points in the opening week, the offense put up 400 yards of total offense, including 191 rush yards. Then this past Monday despite only scoring 20 points, the Redskins had 337 yards, 130 of which came on the ground. EDGE: REDSKINS
The Giants are 3-1 SU & ATS in the last four meetings with Washington.



Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (NBC | 8:15 ET)

Many league insiders believe the Cowboys hold several matchup advantages over the Bears. The way to beat the Cowboys is to attack the secondary, and most team insiders do not believe that Chicago QB Rex Grossman is capable of exploiting that key weakness. EDGE: COWBOYS
One Dallas insider believes this is the first game that Chicago could suffer from the negative results of losing safety Mike Brown for the season. Dallas owns one of the best passing attacks in the league. BIG EDGE: COWBOYS
The Bears are an impressive 16-4 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Dallas is 7-4 ATS its last 11 as an underdog.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Underdogs

NFL
Underdogs


Sunday, September 23

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NFL underdogs: Week 3 picks
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Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens: Cardinals +9

Coach Ken Whisenhunt, take a bow. The dirty Denny Green days are finally dead.

The new Arizona Cardinals aren’t going to be bullied around anymore. They’re going to keep poster boy Matt Leinart’s jersey clean come hell or high water and smack you in the mouth at every opportunity. They’re going to run the ball all day despite boasting two of the game’s most electric wideouts.

Most importantly, they’re going to be pretty darn hard to play against this year.


Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: Lions +6

Everybody’s on Donovan McNabb’s case right now so he got his back up in some questionable quotes this week about the criticism of black quarterbacks.

He’s frustrated and I can see why after last week’s MNF home loss to the Redskins. McNabb’s only reliable receiver is running back Brian Westbrook and right now he’s banged up with a knee injury.

I’m not sold on the Lions, but Philly’s going to need some points to keep up with Detroit’s offense and I’m not sure where the Eagles are going to find it.


San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 49ers +9

San Francisco has something going on. Frank Gore is running like a man possessed and the club is talking about getting stud tight end Vernon Davis more involved this week too. I really like the look Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, but if Alex Smith can put some points up, the 49ers defense can keep them in this game.


Last week's record: 2-1

Season record to date: 3-3

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Sunday, September 23

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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

There are two contests between undefeated teams this weekend as Indianapolis takes on Houston and San Francisco faces Pittsburgh. Also on tap is the top offense in the NFC versus the top defense in the NFC when Dallas visits Chicago.


Indianapolis at Houston

The Colts edged Tennessee 22-20 as a 7-point favorite last week. After roasting the Saints in the season opener the Colts’ offense took a step back, as Peyton Manning completed 28-of-42 pass attempts for 312 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Joseph Addai rushed for 81 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, while Marvin Harrison led all receivers with six receptions for 87 yards. The Colts’ defense also had more trouble with the Titans than with the Saints, allowing 313 yards, including 141 rushing yards.

The Texans are 2-0 for the first time in franchise history after defeating Carolina 34-21 as a 6.5-point favorite last week. Matt Schaub continued to impress as the starting QB while completing 20-of-28 pass attempts for 227 yards with two touchdowns. Both of Schaub’s touchdown passes found the hands of Andre Johnson, who led Houston with seven receptions for 120 yards. Ahman Green showed once again that he still has a little bit left in the tank after rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Houston could be in trouble this week with Johnson out due to a knee injury. Schaub has relied heavily on Johnson in the first two games and all three of his touchdown passes this season have been caught by the star receiver.

The Colts and Texans split last season’s series with each team winning once at home. Indianapolis defeated Houston 43-24 as a 12.5-point favorite early in the season, while the Texans topped the Colts 27-24 as a 9-point underdog. That was the first time the Texans had ever beaten the Colts. In this week’s game the Colts are a 6-point favorite.


San Francisco at Pittsburgh

The 49ers won their second straight close game last week, 17-16 over St. Louis as a 3-point underdog. In Week 1 the 49ers edged Arizona 20-17 as a 3-point favorite. Versus St. Louis, San Francisco received a bold performance from running back Frank Gore, who was still struggling with the death of his mother only days earlier. In the game Gore rushed for 81 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20 carries. While Gore looked good, 49ers quarterback Alex Smith looked lost against St. Louis. Smith completed 11-of-17 pass attempts for 126 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. The 49ers will need Smith to improve this week because they may not be able to rely so heavily on Gore versus the tough Pittsburgh defense.

The Steelers defense was ruthless again last week in a 26-3 win over Buffalo as a 10-point favorite. Combined with their 34-7 Week 1 win over Cleveland the Steelers’ defense has allowed only 10 points this season. The Steelers have been especially strong against the run, allowing only 74 rushing yards per game. On offense the Steelers’ received another steady performance from Ben Roethlisberger, who completed 21-of-34 pass attempts for 242 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back Willie Parker had 23 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown in the win.

The Steelers and 49ers haven't clashed since 2003, when San Francisco defeated Pittsburgh 30-14 as a 4-point favorite. The Steelers are a 9-point favorite this weekend.


Dallas at Chicago

The Cowboys have been scoring in bunches so far this season, which has nicely offset their lackluster defense. Dallas defeated Miami 37-20 as a 3.5-point favorite last week. Tony Romo completed 14-of-29 pass attempts for 186 yards with two touchdowns, while Terrell Owen caught five passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. Marion Barber was the Cowboys' leading rusher with 89 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. The defense played better against Miami than they did in Week 1 after recording four interceptions and two sacks, but they still allowed the Dolphins to register 334 total yards of offense.

The Bears posted their first win of the season last week, 20-10 over Kansas City as a 12-point favorite, but they’re still waiting for some consistency from Rex Grossman. The Bears’ quarterback completed 20-of-34 pass attempts for 160 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win. Cedric Benson paced the offense with 101 rushing yards on 24 carries, while Devin Hester showed he still can’t be stopped after running back a punt 73 yards for a touchdown.

The Cowboys and Bears last met up in 2004 when Dallas defeated Chicago 21-7 as a 3.5-point favorite. The Bears are a 3-point favorite in Sunday night’s game.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet


Week 13

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Sunday, September 23
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EDMONTON (4 - 6 - 1) at MONTREAL (6 - 5) - 9/23/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 4-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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WINNIPEG (7 - 3 - 1) at TORONTO (4 - 7) - 9/23/2007, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Week 13 CFL games

Sunday, September 23

Edmonton (4-6-1) @ Montreal (6-5)-- Eskimos stomped Als last week, 47-28, snapping three-game skid, covering for first time in eight games- they're 1-4 on road, with losses by 20,40,7,11 pts, with only win 19-15 at Winninpeg. Alouettes won last four at home by 2,12,18,18 points- they won last five times they gave up less than 45 pts. Over is 5-2 in last seven Edmonton games.

Winnipeg (7-3-1) @ Toronto (4-7)-- Argos lost 15-13 four wks ago in Winnipeg (+6.5); Bombers outgained them 411-226 in that game. Toronto is 3-0 vs TiCats, but 1-7 vs rest of the CFL, with four of seven losses by 11+ points (2-3 at home, losses by 2,13,11 pts). Winnipeg won four of last five games, with wins by 1,2,19,30; they're 3-2-1 on road, losing at Hamilton, Regina.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Hot Lines

CFL
Hot Lines

Sunday, September 23

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Makin’ Canadian bacon: Week 13 CFL picks
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Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (-4, 53)
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1 p.m. ET

Ricky Ray found Jason Tucker deep over the middle on Edmonton’s first play last week, establishing a vertical passing game that threw the visiting Alouettes for a loop. The Eskies scored 16 points in the first five minutes and the game was essentially over at that point.

The same teams have a replay in Montreal this week, Edmonton’s first trip east of the Prairies this season. It could be a tough one for them, considering that the Als have won each of their last three home games by at least a dozen points. That includes solid wins over Calgary and BC, both of whom are well ahead of Edmonton in the West Division standings.

Last week’s win doesn’t mean Edmonton has solved its problems. The Eskimos lost their preceding three games and the fact that they’re re-jigging their roster in such a fashion midway through the season is an admission of weaknesses throughout the lineup.

Edmonton’s last three road games have all played over the total with ease, averaging 66 combined points per game in the process.

Pick: Over 53



Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-3, 49 ½)
Sunday, Sept. 23, 4 p.m. ET

Will he or won’t he? Winnipeg quarterback Kevin Glenn would definitely suit up on Sunday if it was a playoff game, but the knee strain he suffered last week in Hamilton raises questions about his availability at the Rogers Centre. Do the Bombers, leading the East Division by three points, dare risk playing a slightly-hobbled Glenn?

If Glenn can’t go, Ryan Dinwiddie steps into the breach against the stingiest defense in the East (that would be Toronto’s, despite last week’s gong show in BC Place).

Dinwiddie’s appearance in the pocket would virtually guarantee an under – Toronto is first and Winnipeg tied for second in the CFL for most games playing under the total this year. Their only previous meeting in 2007 was a 15-13 Winnipeg win, one of eight games the Argos have played this season in which fewer than 49 points were scored.

Even if Glenn plays on Sunday, Winnipeg’s defense could play well enough to keep the final score low. The Boatmen have scored 30 points or more only once this season against someone other than Hamilton.

Pick: Under 49 ½


Last week: 1-3

Year to date: 19-25

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[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Sunday, September 23rd

National League

NY Mets at Florida, 1:05 ET
John Maine (R) vs. Chris Seddon (L)
Maine: 10-1 TSR Away when the total is 8.5 to 10
Seddon: Florida 1-7 SU at home vs. Mets

Milwaukee at Atlanta, 1:05 ET TBS
Chris Capuano (L) vs. Jo-Jo Reyes (L)
Capuano: 0-10 TSR 2nd half of season
Reyes: 1-7 TSR in all games

(TC) Philadelphia at Washington, 12:05 ET
Cole Hamels (L) vs. Joel Hanrahan (R)
Hamels: 3-0 TSR, 3.78 ERA L3 starts
Hanrahan: Washington 2-6 SU at home vs. Philadelphia

(TC) Houston at St. Louis, 8:05 ET ESPN
Roy Oswalt (R) vs. Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Oswalt: 10-3 Under in September
Wellemeyer: 7-1 TSR as an underdog

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET WGN
Tom Gorzelanny (L) vs. Carlos Zambrano (R)
Gorzelanny: 9-3 Over 2nd half of season
Zambrano: 5-11 TSR in home starts

Cincinnati at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Aaron Harang (R) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (R)
Harang: 10-2 TSR in day games
Sanchez: SF 17-30 SU in day games

Colorado at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Jeff Francis (L) vs. Greg Maddux (R)
Francis: 9-3 TSR as an underdog
Maddux: 14-4 Under at home vs. division opponents

LA Dodgers at Arizona, 4:40 ET
Chad Billingsley (R) vs. Edgar Gonzalez (R)
Billingsley: Dodgers 5-18 SU Away off 10+ road games
Gonzalez: Arizona 15-8 SU as a home underdog


American League

Toronto at NY Yankees, 1:05 ET
Dustin McGowan (R) vs. Mike Mussina (R)
McGowan: 8-1 TSR in day games
Mussina: 9-2 Over 2nd half of season

Kansas City at Detroit, 1:05 ET
Jorge De La Rosa (L) vs. Justin Verlander (R)
De La Rosa: KC 47-28 Under Away in day games
Verlander: 11-4 Over in home starts

Oakland at Cleveland, 1:05 ET
Rich Harden (R) vs. Jake Westbrook (R)
Harden: 8-1 Under working on 7+ days rest
Westbrook: Cleveland 18-3 Under on Sunday

Boston at Tampa Bay, 1:40 ET
Tim Wakefield (R) vs. Edwin Jackson (R)
Wakefield: Boston 16-4 Under Away in day games
Jackson: 0-3 TSR, 7.71 ERA L3 starts

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, 2:10 ET
Gavin Floyd (R) vs. Kevin Slowey (R)
Floyd: 0-3 TSR, 2.95 ERA L3 starts
Slowey: Minnesota 7-1 Over at home vs. White Sox

Baltimore at Texas, 3:05 ET
Jon Leicester (R) vs. Kevin Millwood (R)
Leicester: Baltimore 31-66 SU as an underdog of +125 to +175
Millwood: Texas 22-11 SU as a home favorite

Seattle at LA Angels, 3:35 ET
Jeff Weaver (R) vs. John Lackey (R)
Weaver: n/a
Lackey: 9-2 TSR vs. division opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

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