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National Football League – Write up
NFL
Write-up
Week 3 - 2007 NFL season
Sunday, September 23
Colts (2-0) @ Texans (2-0)— Texans ran ball for 191 yards in 27-24 win over Colts in Week 16 LY; Houston ended nine-game skid vs. Colts with that win, and are last team to beat Indy in game that counted. Colts only had six possessions in that game, after gaining 515 yards in earlier home win vs. Texans. Hosts are now Cinderella early contender, scoring 34 unanswered points at Carolina last week, after early 14-0 deficit. Colts are 4-1 at Reliant, winning by 20,3,9,18 points. Texans have seven takeaways in two games, were +2 in turnovers both weeks. Success of Panther WR Smith last wk ominous with Harrison, Wayne coming to Houston.
Chargers (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)— Now that San Diego has brutal opening games (Bears, Pats) out of way, they need to pick up level of play vs. unbeaten Green Bay squad that has allowed only two TD’s on 21 drives. Chargers has just two plays of 20+ yards so far; they’ve run ball for only 129 yards, and turned ball over five times. GB has been +1 in turnovers in both games, winning first game when Eagles muffed pair of punts. If you’re grading QB’s, Favre rates large edge over Phillip Rivers. Pack won seven of last eight in seldom-played series, winning last three by combined score of 111-34.
Vikings (1-1) @ Chiefs (0-2)— Minnesota has three defensive TDs in two games, but offense only has two; young QB Jackson was knocked silly late in Detroit game, Bollinger, who played for Edwards with Jets, mopped up. Rookie RB Peterson has helped Viking run game (team has 262 rushing yards), but they needed defensive score just to get game to OT LW. Chiefs have just 500 total yds in two games, with one TD, 12 three/outs on 21 drives. Retooled KC offensive line already allowed seven sacks in two games. Croyle mopped up for woozy Huard in Chicago. Under is 13-1-2 in Chiefs’ last 16 home openers.
Lions (2-0) @ Eagles (0-2)—Philly’s banged-up secondary very vulnerable vs. prolific Detroit aerial attack (62-92/609 yards thru air in two wins) but in past, Johnson’s blitzes have been effective vs. Martz Madness. Reid now 7-11 in Weeks 1-2 as Eagle coach, 81-44 in all other games, so expect Eagles to get rolling at some point, but this is on short work week, tough turnaround, after physical game vs. division rival. Lions faced McCown/Jackson in first two games, not exactly Fouts/Marino, so McNabb could have big game here, but victory-starved Lions believe in Kitna, their linebacker-like QB.
Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)— Pats playing with chip on shoulder after SpyGate, but this game falls between pair of prime time dates, could letdown be possible, against division foe they’ve beaten 12 of last 13 times, winning last seven, with five of the seven by 14+ points? Bills lost last six visits to this site, by average of 13 pts- they’ve gained total of just 407 yards in first two games, averaging 2.0/3.0 yards per pass attempt. Moss has made NE offense more explosive (10.6/7.5 yds/pass attempt), and they’ve also run for 139 ypg so far. Last year, Bills went 3/out on 10 of 19 drives vs. Pats, scoring just one TD.
Dolphins (0-2) @ Jets (0-2)—Jets won five of last six series tilts, winning 20-17/13-10 LY; Miami lost last fifteen games vs. Jets when they scored 17 or less points- they scored 30-21-23-24 in last four series wins. Fish allowed 357 rush yards in first two games, and have five TO’s last week, as Green struggles to get used to his new team- they have just 127 rushing yards in two games themselves. Clemens was 19-37/210 passing in Baltimore LW; he showed bigger arm than his predecessor. Well-coached Jets have just four penalties in two games; LY, they had just 12 points in four trips to Miami red zone—that needs to improve.
49ers (2-0) @ Steelers (2-0)—We know winning is good, and that losing isn’t, but in their two wins, Niners have been outgained 261-194/392-186; they’ve averaged 3.0/3.2 yards per pass attempt, are 8-26 on third down, and have a grand total of 170 passing yards. Steelers have outscored their foes 34-7/26-3, are 17-30 on third down, averaged 6.5/6.6 yds/pass try and outgained foes 365-221/420-223,, although they did get only two TD’s in six visits to Buffalo red zone last week. Off of two divisional wins in which they struggled but still won, 49ers will need to play much better in this game to even stay close.
Cardinals (1-1) @ Ravens (1-1)— Have to check and see who is Raven QB, since laying any points with Boller is risky business. Baltimore had 11 penalties for 100 yards last week, needed pass dropped in EZ by Jets to avoid tie in last 2:00; this after they turned ball over six times. Cardinals split pair of 3-point games that both came down to last minute; they have 293 yards rushing in two games, good sign that new regime has improved the OL, and therefore James. With Whisenhunt/Grimm being from Steelers, they’re familiar with Ravens. Favorites of six or more points are 5-9 vs. spread so far this season.
Rams (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)—St Louis lost first two games, both at home, after leading both at half; they’ve turned ball over five times already, converted just 10-29 on third down, scoring two TD’s in six red zone trips– they’ve also scored just 16.8 pg in losing first road game the last five years. Without injured Pace/ Incognito on left side of line, Rams ran ball for just 44 times for 140 yards (3.2/carry), bad news when opposing Tampa defense that held Saints to 99 yards rushing last week. Garcia was 10-16/ 243 passing with no sacks last week, an amazing 15.2 yards/ pass.
Jaguars (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)—Denver won both its games on walk-off FGs, which accounts for low spread here. Home side won five of last seven series games, with Jags 1-3 in last four visits here, with losses, by 8,25,13 points. Garrard has led Jags to just two TD’s on 18 drives, though they’ve done decent job moving chains on 3rd down (12-26), while Cutler is just 9-27 on 3rd down. Denver had three TD’s, seven FGs tried; they’ve scored three TD’s in seven trips inside red zone. Under is 6-2 in Jaguars’ last eight road openers. Only first half TD Broncos allowed so far came on a punt return. I think this spread is light.
Bengals (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)—Seahawks sleptwalked through first quarter of both games so far, but outscored foes 23-3 in second half of games, until they botched handoff in last 2:00 and blew game they had to think was theirs, even after trailing 17-0. Now erratic Bengals come to town; Cincy scored 72 points in first two games, allowed 71- Browns had 554 yards and 51 points last week- only 11 of their 63 plays came on 3rd down. Seattle passing game averaged 7.8/7.4 yds/attempt in first two games, should do some serious damage vs. porous Bengal secondary. Cincy has home night game vs. Patriots next week.
Browns (1-1) @ Raiders (0-2)—Cleveland won last three series games, 13-7/9-7/24-21, coming back from 21-10 halftime deficit to win LY’s game (Raiders were 9-24/46 passing), with Browns starting four drives in Oakland territory, enjoying 14-yard edge in field position. This year’s Raiders have rallied from 17-0/17-3 deficits to take fourth quarter leads, before losing- they’ve already scored four TD’s, after getting twelve all of last year. Anderson was ridiculous 20-33/328 with five TD’s last week, as Browns averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and gained 554 yards. Cleveland has allowed 79 points in two games.
Panthers (1-1) @ Falcons (0-2)— Interesting to see home crowd reaction to 0-2 Falcons in first home game of post-Vick era. Atlanta has one TD in two games (17 drives), and run ball for only 89 ypg. Immobile Harrington has been sacked 13 times in two games, amid rumors team is looking into signing even less mobile Leftwich. Carolina won three of last four series games, after having lost 13 of previous 18; they’ve won last two visits here, 44-11/10-3. Panthers were up 14-0 in home opener last week, before Texans went on 34-0 run- they’ve already turned ball over five times this season.
Giants (0-2) @ Redskins (2-0)—After tough Monday night road win over division rival Eagles, Redskins find out if they can stand prosperity as Giants limp into town, having allowed 80 points, 620 passing yards (13.4/7.3 ypp) in losing first two games. Big Blue LBs were abused all day by Pack receivers. Giants swept this series LY (19-3/34-28, with +9/+10 edges in field position) but lost two of last three visits here, as home side won five of last six series games. Giants were 17-30 on 3rd down vs. Skins LY, are 13-25 so far this year, as Manning hasn’t been a problem, their porous defense has.
Cowboys (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)— Classic battle of offense vs. defense, as Bears forced 12 three/outs on 23 opponent drives this season, while Dallas scored 82 points in winning first two games, with 55 of 82 points scored in second half, offsetting 18 penalties they’ve had (for 156 yards). Cowboys have 308 rushing yards, 522 passing, as Romo uses all his weapons, but he is way in class here. Bears held San Diego to 263 yards, shutting them out in first half. Problem for Chicago is if opponents don’t punt to Hester, offense takes major hit. Grossman averaged 4.7/2.8 yds per pass attempt so far this season- not good.
Monday, September 24
Titans (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)—Tennessee won at Jacksonville, lost 22-20 to Colts, have to be impressed with that start, but now a non-division road game, vs. desperate Saint club that won 23-3 in LY’s Week 3 home opener, albeit in more emotional climate than this will be. NO off to 10-41/14-31 start, getting outscored 52-0 if you combine second half in Indy with first half in Tampa. Saints allowed 9.6 ypp vs. Manning (excusable) then 15.2 ypp vs. Garcia (shockingly hideous)-- doubt Young can exploit that weakness although his legs provide a whole new set of questions. Brees has already thrown 31 incompletions— way too many.
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NFL
Write-up
Week 3 - 2007 NFL season
Sunday, September 23
Colts (2-0) @ Texans (2-0)— Texans ran ball for 191 yards in 27-24 win over Colts in Week 16 LY; Houston ended nine-game skid vs. Colts with that win, and are last team to beat Indy in game that counted. Colts only had six possessions in that game, after gaining 515 yards in earlier home win vs. Texans. Hosts are now Cinderella early contender, scoring 34 unanswered points at Carolina last week, after early 14-0 deficit. Colts are 4-1 at Reliant, winning by 20,3,9,18 points. Texans have seven takeaways in two games, were +2 in turnovers both weeks. Success of Panther WR Smith last wk ominous with Harrison, Wayne coming to Houston.
Chargers (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)— Now that San Diego has brutal opening games (Bears, Pats) out of way, they need to pick up level of play vs. unbeaten Green Bay squad that has allowed only two TD’s on 21 drives. Chargers has just two plays of 20+ yards so far; they’ve run ball for only 129 yards, and turned ball over five times. GB has been +1 in turnovers in both games, winning first game when Eagles muffed pair of punts. If you’re grading QB’s, Favre rates large edge over Phillip Rivers. Pack won seven of last eight in seldom-played series, winning last three by combined score of 111-34.
Vikings (1-1) @ Chiefs (0-2)— Minnesota has three defensive TDs in two games, but offense only has two; young QB Jackson was knocked silly late in Detroit game, Bollinger, who played for Edwards with Jets, mopped up. Rookie RB Peterson has helped Viking run game (team has 262 rushing yards), but they needed defensive score just to get game to OT LW. Chiefs have just 500 total yds in two games, with one TD, 12 three/outs on 21 drives. Retooled KC offensive line already allowed seven sacks in two games. Croyle mopped up for woozy Huard in Chicago. Under is 13-1-2 in Chiefs’ last 16 home openers.
Lions (2-0) @ Eagles (0-2)—Philly’s banged-up secondary very vulnerable vs. prolific Detroit aerial attack (62-92/609 yards thru air in two wins) but in past, Johnson’s blitzes have been effective vs. Martz Madness. Reid now 7-11 in Weeks 1-2 as Eagle coach, 81-44 in all other games, so expect Eagles to get rolling at some point, but this is on short work week, tough turnaround, after physical game vs. division rival. Lions faced McCown/Jackson in first two games, not exactly Fouts/Marino, so McNabb could have big game here, but victory-starved Lions believe in Kitna, their linebacker-like QB.
Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)— Pats playing with chip on shoulder after SpyGate, but this game falls between pair of prime time dates, could letdown be possible, against division foe they’ve beaten 12 of last 13 times, winning last seven, with five of the seven by 14+ points? Bills lost last six visits to this site, by average of 13 pts- they’ve gained total of just 407 yards in first two games, averaging 2.0/3.0 yards per pass attempt. Moss has made NE offense more explosive (10.6/7.5 yds/pass attempt), and they’ve also run for 139 ypg so far. Last year, Bills went 3/out on 10 of 19 drives vs. Pats, scoring just one TD.
Dolphins (0-2) @ Jets (0-2)—Jets won five of last six series tilts, winning 20-17/13-10 LY; Miami lost last fifteen games vs. Jets when they scored 17 or less points- they scored 30-21-23-24 in last four series wins. Fish allowed 357 rush yards in first two games, and have five TO’s last week, as Green struggles to get used to his new team- they have just 127 rushing yards in two games themselves. Clemens was 19-37/210 passing in Baltimore LW; he showed bigger arm than his predecessor. Well-coached Jets have just four penalties in two games; LY, they had just 12 points in four trips to Miami red zone—that needs to improve.
49ers (2-0) @ Steelers (2-0)—We know winning is good, and that losing isn’t, but in their two wins, Niners have been outgained 261-194/392-186; they’ve averaged 3.0/3.2 yards per pass attempt, are 8-26 on third down, and have a grand total of 170 passing yards. Steelers have outscored their foes 34-7/26-3, are 17-30 on third down, averaged 6.5/6.6 yds/pass try and outgained foes 365-221/420-223,, although they did get only two TD’s in six visits to Buffalo red zone last week. Off of two divisional wins in which they struggled but still won, 49ers will need to play much better in this game to even stay close.
Cardinals (1-1) @ Ravens (1-1)— Have to check and see who is Raven QB, since laying any points with Boller is risky business. Baltimore had 11 penalties for 100 yards last week, needed pass dropped in EZ by Jets to avoid tie in last 2:00; this after they turned ball over six times. Cardinals split pair of 3-point games that both came down to last minute; they have 293 yards rushing in two games, good sign that new regime has improved the OL, and therefore James. With Whisenhunt/Grimm being from Steelers, they’re familiar with Ravens. Favorites of six or more points are 5-9 vs. spread so far this season.
Rams (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)—St Louis lost first two games, both at home, after leading both at half; they’ve turned ball over five times already, converted just 10-29 on third down, scoring two TD’s in six red zone trips– they’ve also scored just 16.8 pg in losing first road game the last five years. Without injured Pace/ Incognito on left side of line, Rams ran ball for just 44 times for 140 yards (3.2/carry), bad news when opposing Tampa defense that held Saints to 99 yards rushing last week. Garcia was 10-16/ 243 passing with no sacks last week, an amazing 15.2 yards/ pass.
Jaguars (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)—Denver won both its games on walk-off FGs, which accounts for low spread here. Home side won five of last seven series games, with Jags 1-3 in last four visits here, with losses, by 8,25,13 points. Garrard has led Jags to just two TD’s on 18 drives, though they’ve done decent job moving chains on 3rd down (12-26), while Cutler is just 9-27 on 3rd down. Denver had three TD’s, seven FGs tried; they’ve scored three TD’s in seven trips inside red zone. Under is 6-2 in Jaguars’ last eight road openers. Only first half TD Broncos allowed so far came on a punt return. I think this spread is light.
Bengals (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)—Seahawks sleptwalked through first quarter of both games so far, but outscored foes 23-3 in second half of games, until they botched handoff in last 2:00 and blew game they had to think was theirs, even after trailing 17-0. Now erratic Bengals come to town; Cincy scored 72 points in first two games, allowed 71- Browns had 554 yards and 51 points last week- only 11 of their 63 plays came on 3rd down. Seattle passing game averaged 7.8/7.4 yds/attempt in first two games, should do some serious damage vs. porous Bengal secondary. Cincy has home night game vs. Patriots next week.
Browns (1-1) @ Raiders (0-2)—Cleveland won last three series games, 13-7/9-7/24-21, coming back from 21-10 halftime deficit to win LY’s game (Raiders were 9-24/46 passing), with Browns starting four drives in Oakland territory, enjoying 14-yard edge in field position. This year’s Raiders have rallied from 17-0/17-3 deficits to take fourth quarter leads, before losing- they’ve already scored four TD’s, after getting twelve all of last year. Anderson was ridiculous 20-33/328 with five TD’s last week, as Browns averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and gained 554 yards. Cleveland has allowed 79 points in two games.
Panthers (1-1) @ Falcons (0-2)— Interesting to see home crowd reaction to 0-2 Falcons in first home game of post-Vick era. Atlanta has one TD in two games (17 drives), and run ball for only 89 ypg. Immobile Harrington has been sacked 13 times in two games, amid rumors team is looking into signing even less mobile Leftwich. Carolina won three of last four series games, after having lost 13 of previous 18; they’ve won last two visits here, 44-11/10-3. Panthers were up 14-0 in home opener last week, before Texans went on 34-0 run- they’ve already turned ball over five times this season.
Giants (0-2) @ Redskins (2-0)—After tough Monday night road win over division rival Eagles, Redskins find out if they can stand prosperity as Giants limp into town, having allowed 80 points, 620 passing yards (13.4/7.3 ypp) in losing first two games. Big Blue LBs were abused all day by Pack receivers. Giants swept this series LY (19-3/34-28, with +9/+10 edges in field position) but lost two of last three visits here, as home side won five of last six series games. Giants were 17-30 on 3rd down vs. Skins LY, are 13-25 so far this year, as Manning hasn’t been a problem, their porous defense has.
Cowboys (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)— Classic battle of offense vs. defense, as Bears forced 12 three/outs on 23 opponent drives this season, while Dallas scored 82 points in winning first two games, with 55 of 82 points scored in second half, offsetting 18 penalties they’ve had (for 156 yards). Cowboys have 308 rushing yards, 522 passing, as Romo uses all his weapons, but he is way in class here. Bears held San Diego to 263 yards, shutting them out in first half. Problem for Chicago is if opponents don’t punt to Hester, offense takes major hit. Grossman averaged 4.7/2.8 yds per pass attempt so far this season- not good.
Monday, September 24
Titans (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)—Tennessee won at Jacksonville, lost 22-20 to Colts, have to be impressed with that start, but now a non-division road game, vs. desperate Saint club that won 23-3 in LY’s Week 3 home opener, albeit in more emotional climate than this will be. NO off to 10-41/14-31 start, getting outscored 52-0 if you combine second half in Indy with first half in Tampa. Saints allowed 9.6 ypp vs. Manning (excusable) then 15.2 ypp vs. Garcia (shockingly hideous)-- doubt Young can exploit that weakness although his legs provide a whole new set of questions. Brees has already thrown 31 incompletions— way too many.
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