Sunday Trends and Indexes 09/09

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, September 9

Good Luck on day #252 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

More college football observations.........

-- Steve Spurrier is 9-1 vs spread on road in his tenure with South Carolina; how much is he worth to the school, as far as marketing, licensing and recruitment of students? A lot.

-- Wisconsin needed a TD with under 2:00 left, as Badgers beat improved UNLV 20-13; they trailed 13-12 before that.

-- When was last time the Miami Hurricanes lost 51-10?

-- Iowa State, Northern Illinois both lost to I-AA teams, as list stands at four I-A teams to look stupid already in '07.

-- Washington has itself a keeper QB in redshirt freshman Locker, who runs it real well, and looks like he will become a prolific passer too, at some point.

-- Watching OT in Fresno-A&M game, was concerned for safety of players, officials due to the extreme heat. At one point in OT, refs stopped game so umpire could get some water into him. Looked like everyone needed some drinks.

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[pm530]

Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up college football Saturday

13) ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit said on air during LSU-Va Tech he thought LSU coach Les Miles, a former player and coach in Ann Arbor, would take the Michigan job if they offered it to him after Lloyd Carr's inevitable resignation later this fall.

12) Halftime score: Oregon 32, Michigan 7. 112,000 people in bad moods, booing, is not a happy sound.

11) This is the first time Michigan lost its first two home tilts since 1959, it is first time Georgia, Michigan, Miami and Notre Dame all lost on the same day since 1979, and it is first time ever that Wolverines, Irish are both 0-2. Luckily, they play each other next Saturday, or we'd have a crisis on our hands.

10) It has not been 28 years since Vanderbilt, Duke, Rice and Eastern Michigan all lost on same day; they did Saturday

9) If I were voting for Top 25 right now, LSU, Oklahoma have to be on the top of that list.

8) South Florida wins at Auburn; eventually, the Bulls will be the Big East's premier football program; too many real good high school football players in Florida for them not to be.

7) Groves Stadium at Wake Forest is the smallest stadium the Nebraska Cornhuskers played at in last 36 years. It is also the first time Cornhuskers visited an ACC program.

6) Wake Forest had ball on Nebraska 10-yard line and score tied with 8:00 left , but they threw their third end zone pick in two games, costing them the lead and, ultimately, the game.

5) Big 11 Network has to be sick over Michigan's downfall, as far as subscriptions and all that.

4) Boston College treated its former coach, Tom O'Brien, to a 37-17 loss in his return to Chestnut Hill. Its going to take bit of time for O'Brien to do in Raleigh what he did at BC.

3) You've gotta love Fresno State; they played their butt off after being down 19-0, losing in OT on brutally hot day. This Fresno program will go anywhere, anytime to play anyone. If you're a top 20-type program, why would you schedule them? You're just asking for trouble. Aggies have to be relieved.

2) TCU led 10-0 at half in Austin, then lost 34-13; Frogs were confident of their chances vs Longhons, but Texas had great second half, and the rout was on.

1) I think part of the reason college football is so popular is in fact that the elite programs almost never lose, so these teams are easier to root for. In that sense, it makes Michigan's skid
a slight bit enjoyable; they've had crowds of 100,000+ at their last 201 home games- their resources have to be amazing, so to see them knocked down a couples of pegs is refreshing.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Week 1


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Game 405-406: Kansas City at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 129.836; Houston 127.882
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 36
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 407-408: Denver at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 130.115; Buffalo 134.330
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 35
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.948; Cleveland 122.722
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 37
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4); Over

Game 411-412: Tennessee at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 127.732; Jacksonville 138.190
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-6 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Carolina at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 126.261; St. Louis 132.078
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Pick; 42
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis; Over

Game 415-416: Philadelphia at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.681; Green Bay 125.141
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Atlanta at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 127.955; Minnesota 126.882
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 32
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 419-420: Miami at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.260; Washington 127.184
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 35
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Over

Game 421-422: New England at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.904; NY Jets 130.073
Dunkel Line: New England by 10; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 121.534; Seattle 129.810
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 8; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6); Under

Game 425-426: Chicago at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.372; San Diego 139.421
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 7; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6; 43
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6); Over

Game 427-428: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 124.746; Oakland 120.600
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 35
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Under

Game 429-430: NY Giants at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 127.530; Dallas 130.096
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+6); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Game 431-432: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.597; Cincinnati 134.886
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under

Game 433-434: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 122.019; San Francisco 127.676
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 1

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Sunday, September 9

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 8) at HOUSTON (6 - 10) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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DENVER (9 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 9) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) at CLEVELAND (4 - 12) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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TENNESSEE (8 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (8 - 8) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CAROLINA (8 - 8) at ST LOUIS (8 - 8) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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PHILADELPHIA (11 - 7) at GREEN BAY (8 - 8) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 113-77 ATS (+28.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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ATLANTA (7 - 9) at MINNESOTA (6 - 10) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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MIAMI (6 - 10) at WASHINGTON (5 - 11) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NEW ENGLAND (14 - 5) at NY JETS (10 - 7) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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TAMPA BAY (4 - 12) at SEATTLE (10 - 8) - 9/9/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CHICAGO (15 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (14 - 3) - 9/9/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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DETROIT (3 - 13) at OAKLAND (2 - 14) - 9/9/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NY GIANTS (8 - 9) at DALLAS (9 - 8) - 9/9/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, September 10

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BALTIMORE (13 - 4) at CINCINNATI (8 - 8) - 9/10/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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ARIZONA (5 - 11) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 9) - 9/10/2007, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

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Sunday, September 9th

Kansas City at Houston, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 18-7 Under vs. conference opponents
Houston: 2-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season

Denver at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Denver: 19-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Buffalo: 13-4 Over at home vs. AFC West opponents

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 11-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Cleveland: 12-4 Under in home games

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 10-5 Over in the first half of the season
Jacksonville: 16-6 ATS at home in September

Carolina at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 1-7 ATS in the first month of the season
St. Louis: 7-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Philadelphia at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 24-10 ATS vs. NFC North opponents
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog

Atlanta at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 12-4 Under in road games
Minnesota: 6-1 Under in the first month of the season

Miami at Washington, 1:00 ET
Miami: 1-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Washington: 19-8 Under in the first two weeks of the season

New England at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-2 ATS as a road favorite
NY Jets: 6-18 ATS at home in September

Tampa Bay at Seattle, 4:15 ET
Tampa Bay: 25-4 Under in the first two weeks of the season
Seattle: 11-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Chicago at San Diego, 4:15 ET
Chicago: 21-9 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
San Diego: 10-4 ATS in the first half of the season

Detroit at Oakland, 4:15 ET
Detroit: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Oakland: 12-3 Under in home games

NY Giants at Dallas, 8:15 ET NBC
NY Giants: 8-3 ATS vs. division opponents
Dallas: 9-5 Under at home vs. NY Giants


Monday, September 10th

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 7:00 ET ESPN
Baltimore: 18-6 Under vs. conference opponents
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in September

Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 ET ESPN
Arizona: 0-6 ATS in September
San Francisco: 20-7 ATS on Monday nights

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up



Week 1 2007 NFL season

Sunday, September 9

Chiefs @ Texans-- Two teams headed in opposite directions, as Chiefs are in disarray, with Huard winning QB derby by default, while Texans imported Schaub te replace Carr at QB, as they try and move past mistake of not drafting hometown hero Young. Houston lost last four home openers, three by 14+ points. KC is 4-2 in last six road openers, but lost couple of offensive linemen, and star RB Johnson just got into camp. Chiefs, originally called the Dallas Texans, won last two visits here, 42-14/45-17.

Broncos @ Bills-- Denver won last four series games, with totals in last three 43+; they won last two visits here, 23-20ot/28-17, but lost last three road openers, with four of last five staying under total. Old friend Travis Henry returns to Buffalo, trying to revive Bronco running game. Buffalo is 4-9 in last 13 openers, 2-4 in last six at home; six of their last eight home openers stayed under the total. Interesting to see how Cal rookie Lynch does running ball.

Steelers @ Browns-- Steelers have third coach in last 39 seasons, vs team that has major confusion at QB- they actually flipped a coin to determine starter for summer game. Pittsburgh won seven series games in row, with five of last six wins by 11+ points- they won last six visits to Lake Erie, and converted on 16 of 28 third down plays vs Browns LY, scoring six TDs on 20 drives, while the Browns had one TD on 19 drives, with seven 3/outs. They've lost seven of last eight home openers, with four of the last five losses by five or less points.

Titans @ Jaguars-- Jax outrushed Titans 380-149 LY, allowing the Titans to convert just five of 26 on third down, but they lost big game in Week 15 to Tennessee (24-17), even though Titans had only 98 total yards, and were 0 for 8 on third down. Titans lost last two visits here, 40-13/37-7, and lost six of last seven openers on road; they're 3-9 vs spread as dog in road openers, losing last two by combined score of 74-14. Jags covered last six openers at home; they covered in Week 1 the last eight years.

Panthers @ Rams-- First visit to this site for Carolina since win in OT in '03 playoffs that propelled them to NFC title; Panthers won last three series games, 15-0/20-7/29-23ot- they held Rams to just 31 rushing yards in LY's game, dominating total yards (411-111) holding St Louis to eight first downs. Rams upgraded offense by adding Bennett, McMichael; they won last four series openers, all by eight or less points. In their history, Carolina is 1-3 in Week 1 road games-- they lost their last three season openers, all as a home favorite.

Eagles @ Packers-- Philly won last five series games, with home side winning nine of last ten in series; Eagles lost three of last 4 visits to Lambeau, but haven't been here since '03. LY, Pack led
9-7 at half in Philly, but lost 31-9, as Iggles ran ball for 131 yards, and has 12-yard advantage in field position. Pack lost their last 4 home openers, covered just one of last eight, allowing 25.8 ppg in last four. Eagles are 6-2 vs spread as favorite in Week 1; under is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.

Falcons @ Vikings-- Post-Vick era begins with Harrington at QB for Atlanta. Home side lost four of last five series games, as the Falcons won last two visits here, both in OT (one of wins was in playoffs). Vikings won three of last four home openers; under is 13-5-1 in their last 19, as well as 12-6 in Falcons' last 18 openers on road. Atlanta started out 1-0 last four years, won three of last four road openers. Minnesota figures to try and run ball, with a young QB (Jackson) and solid rookie runner (Peterson).

Dolphins @ Redskins-- Cameron/Green combo used to work for Redskins, now 37-year old Green tries to revive career in Miami, after serious concussion caused him to miss half of last season in KC. Home side won last five series games, with Dolphins' last W here back in '84. Skins won four of last five home openers, with last four staying under- they're 2-6-1 vs spread last nine times as a favorite in home opener. Fish lost last three road openers; nine of their last thirteen road openers stayed under the total.

Patriots @ Jets-- New England defense has taken hits recently, as Harrison, Seymour both out for first month, but Belichick is 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last six at this site. Last season, Pats won two of three vs Jets, outrushing Gang Green 448-208. although Jets did run ball for 117 yards in game they won. Jets were 17-31 on 3rd down during season vs Pats, but only 3-11 in playoff loss. Over is 13-5-1 in last nineteen Jet home openers, and 5-2-2 in New England's last nine road openers.

Buccaneers @ Seahawks-- Seattle won six of last seven in series, with last four series totals 30 or less; Hawks won 23-7 last year in Week 17 (+3), winning 60.9% of third down plays, having 12-yard edge in field position, piling up 28 first downs and 72-49 edge in plays run. Garcia is latest QB for Bucs, who won six of last eight road openers (under is 6-0 both in Seattle home openers, and Buc road openers). Seahawks won last four home openers, allowing just 9.5 ppg, winning by 17-34-3-11 points.

Bears @ Chargers-- Norv Turner debuts as Bolts' HC, while his brother Ron calls plays for Bears. Charger LB coach Rivera was Chicago DC for last three years, was let go by Chicago after he tried to get head coaching job, so this has to be special game for him, even with hated Patriots on deck. Bears won last four games in this seldom-played series; this is their first visit here since '99. San Diego scored 24-28-40 points in last three season openers. Of late, teams that lose Super Bowl have stumbled the next year.

Lions @ Raiders-- Fine piece of scheduling, as two worst teams in '06 meet in '07 opener, guaranteeing one of them a happy start to this season. Home side won six of last eight series games, as Lions are 0-4 at this site. Raiders acquired QB McCown from the Lions in offseason; will he help Oakland defend Martz Madness? Lions expected to be more explosive in second year with Martz as OC, but Lions just 24-72 in six years under inept GM Millen; hard to have much confidence backing them on road, even against dysfunctional Raider team that cut its 3rd round pick this week.

Giants @ Cowboys-- Both offense dominated series games in '06, as teams combined to convert 56% of third down plays in teams' meetings. This was game last year where Romo replaced Bledsoe after bad INT right before half. Giants were +3 in turnovers, ran ball for 281 yards, while Dallas averaged 7.2/7.3 yards per pass attempt in two games. Giants are 10-6 in last 16 series games, 4-3 in last seven visits here. Dallas started 0-1 six of last seven years under is 13-5-1 in their last nineteen home openers. Can Jacobs be adequate replacement for backstabbing former RB Barber?


Monday, September 10

Ravens @ Bengals-- Baltimore was 11-31 on third down last year vs Bengals, scoring only one TD in seven trips to Cincinnati red zone; they hope addition of McGahee improves those numbers. Bengals won four of last five series games, with Ravens losing in last two visits here, 42-29/13-7, but Cincy OL took some hits last offseason, which could hamper formerly high-powered offense. Ravens lost five of last six road openers, with under 8-1 in last 9 road openers. Bengals won last three home openers, by 3,29,17.

Cardinals @ 49ers-- Since losing pair of OT tilts to Niners in 2005, Cardinals won last four series games, winning last two visits here 17-10/26-20; six of last seven series totals were 45+. Arizona won 64.6% of third down plays in series LY, with Niners just 2-18 on third down, but Cardinals have been awful road team, losing last five road openers by 13-point average. Arizona is 1-12 in last 13 Week 1 road games. Niners covered their last four openers, with underdog covering seven of their last nine. At age 23, 49er QB Smith is same age as Hawai'i's Heisman hopeful Colt Brennan.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL

Sunday, September 9

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Tips and Trends
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Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are interested in seeing how this Denver team reacts to the emotional off-season losses it suffered (the death of CB Darrent Williams a few hours after the season ended and in February, Broncos RB Damien Nash died at a charity basketball game). SLIGHT EDGE: BRONCOS
Team insiders are reporting that new defensive coordinator Jim Bates says he will utilize more blitz packages: "No. 1, the top priority is you have to play well against the run," Bates said. "You have to stop the run to get the sticks in our favor where it's third down-and-long." If they are able to get penetration against Buffalo’s vanilla offensive line then Buffalo could be in for a long day. EDGE: BRONCOS
The Broncos’ first-string defense surrendered six touchdowns and three field goals in 15 possessions during the first three games of preseason when starting offenses still were seeing action. EDGE: BILLS
The Broncos are 11-5 SU and ATS in their last 16 season openers, going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road openers.
Denver is 10-6 SU & ATS its last 16 on the road but also just 3-10 ATS its last 13 as a favorite.
Buffalo is 8-3 ATS its last 11 as a dog and has the offense to hang in here.
The OVER is 25-18 in Buffalo's last 43 games.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are concerned over the recent news that the Browns center LeCharles Bentley is on the reserve/physically unable to perform list, meaning he will miss at least the first six weeks of the season. The loss of Bentley and right tackle Ryan Tucker (getting suspended the first four games of the season because of steroid use) is not good news for an aging Jamal Lewis and this vanilla Cleveland offense. BIG EDGE: STEELERS
Team insiders are reporting that Pittsburgh first-year head coach Mike Tomlin is overseeing a defensive scheme change to a 3-4 alignment with elements of the 4-3 scheme. It may take awhile for opposing offensive coordinators to figure out how to attack the new scheme. EDGE: STEELERS
The Steelers are an incredible 18-8 SU & 16-10 ATS on the road in the last three years.
The Cleveland Browns are 15-23-1 ATS as an underdog and are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS its last 7 against Pittsburgh.


Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are still concerned with the Philadelphia run stopping unit that slipped to 26th last season. However, that won't be a big problem here as Green Bay has an unproven running game that will be without Ahman Green for the first time in eight seasons. SLIGHT EDGE: PACKERS
The Eagles have outscored the Packers by 57 points during the past three years, although all three games were at Philadelphia. SLIGHT EDGE: EAGLES
Last season's Green Bay defense was good on paper but really struggled when stepping up against playoff teams, losing 38-10 to the Jets, 35-0 to the Patriots, 26-0 to the Bears, 34-27 to the Saints and 31-9 to these Eagles. EDGE: EAGLES
Philadelphia is an incredible 33-18 SU & 31-19 ATS on the road the last 6 years.
The Packers are a disappointing 10-15 SU and 6-18-1 ATS the last three seasons at home.


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are concerned about the Kansas City offensive line, which has lost their two best players (Willie Roaf, Will Shields) over the last two years. The concern is exacerbated because head coach Herm Edwards prefers a conservative ground game that may have trouble opening up the lanes for running back Larry Johnson, who missed the entire preseason and is not expected to see his usual workload in the season opener. EDGE: TEXANS
Kansas City scored just 32 points in the preseason and was the only team to total less than 40. EDGE: TEXANS
Kansas City is 9-18 SU & 9-17-1 ATS its last 27 road games.


Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Team insiders are concerned about this Tennessee defense that has a lot of holes, with CB "Pac Man" Jones suspended off a defense that was dead last in the league in 2006. They allowed 144 yards rushing per game (30th) and allowed over 200 rush yards twice and over 170 yards 5 times. EDGE: JAGUARS
Team insiders believe that Jacksonville holds a fundamental matchup advantage when Tennessee is on offense. Tennessee prefers to run the football and the Jaguars are dominant up front against the run (3rd in total defense se in 2006, 5th against the run). EDGE: JAGUARS
Jacksonville team insiders are excited about new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter (former Boise St and Arizona St head coach) who implemented a new, wide-open offense. Jacksonville displayed their new look all preseason and should do well against a weak Tennessee secondary. EDGE: JAGUARS
The Jags are 14-8-2 ATS in their last 24 home games and beat Tennessee here 37-7 and 40-13 the last two years.
Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 season openers.


Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The offseason saga surrounding the Falcons is finally over, with QB Joey Harrington finally ready to take over for Michael Vick. "I don't need to fill Michael Vick's shoes," Harrington said."I'm not trying to be Michael Vick. I'm trying to be myself. If I can play like myself, people will believe in me." Harrington is 1-6 lifetime vs. Minnesota with 8 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. EDGE: VIKINGS & UNDER
Minnesota's top concern is improving an offense that set team records for fewest touchdown passes (13) and first downs (272) last season. The play of second-year QB Tavaris Jackson (47-of-81 for 475 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 4 games last season) will be the key to the offense's revival while rookie RB Adrian Peterson should help starter Chester Taylor stay fresh coming off the biggest workload of his career. SLIGHT EDGE: FALCONS & UNDER
Atlanta is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 season openers as an underdog.
Atlanta is also 8-1 in its last 8 season openers.
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.


New England Patriots at New York Jets (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Some team insiders believe that the Jets’ 10-6 mark last year was a bit misleading considering they played an easy schedule, were out-gained by 415 yards and had 23 fewer first downs than their opponents. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Jets QB Chad Pennington struggled in the preseason and the offensive line play was poor after trading away disgruntled veteran G Pete Kendall two weeks ago. This could also be tough for new RB Thomas Jones, who missed most of the preseason with a calf strain but has practiced this week and should be ready to play. EDGE: PATRIOTS
New England’s quarterback Tom Brady has an impressive 10-2 SU career mark against New York.
New England was 8-2 SU & ATS on the road last season.
New England has also dominated this series with an 8-1 ATS mark.


Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Rams have the motivational edge looking for revenge after the Panthers held them scoreless for the first time since 1998 in a 15-0 victory last November 19th while sacking Marc Bulger seven times. EDGE: RAMS
The Panthers have a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Davidson, who has added more spice plus zone blocking by the offensive line. However, Carolina’s offense did struggle at times in the preseason as John Fox shuffled different combinations, something to keep an eye on in the opener. SLIGHT EDGE: RAMS
The St. Louis run defense has been brutal, giving up 4.9 yards per carry the last two seasons - worst in the NFL during that stretch. EDGE: PANTHERS
The Carolina Panthers are 15-9-1 ATS their last 25 road games.
The Rams are 6-10 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The OVER is 7-3-1 in the last 11 games for St. Louis along with 4-1 in the last 5 for Carolina.
Carolina is a stellar 15-2-1 ATS as an underdog.


Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins (FOX | 1 PM ET)

This will be the first game for new Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron after being offensive coordinator of the Chargers in 2006. Considering Cameron was the brains behind the explosive offense in San Diego, some insiders were disappointed that Miami struggled to put points on the board for much of the preseason. SLIGHT EDGE: REDSKINS
A key for the Redskins will be the health of their offensive line, and whether or not they are able to stay together for the entire season. It is a very strong unit despite the loss of Derrick Dockery. Converted tackle Todd Wage will likely replace Dockery and has a very important job considering the team’s starting QB is a right-hander, making Wage’s position even more important as it is Jason Campell’s blindside. If Washington is able to keep Campbell on his feet, this team could go far. EDGE: REDSKINS
Miami is 18-14 ATS on the road the last four seasons.
The UNDER is 6-3 in Washington's last 9 games and 30-19 since head coach Joe Gibbs returned in 2004.


Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (FOX | 4:15 ET)

Detroit got better offensively with WR Calvin Johnson joining Roy Williams (1,310 yards) and WR Mike Furrey (1,086 yards). Quarterback Jon Kitna will enjoy throwing downfield, though he missed the last two preseason games with back spasms. SLIGHT EDGE: LIONS
Team insider cannot believe how Lions GM Matt Millen could have actually made the 26th-ranked defense worse by trading away CB Dre Bly. The secondary was awful in preseason and will be the weak link on this team, along with a suspect offensive line. EDGE: RAIDERS
The Raiders will start former Detroit backup Josh McCown at QB, a move that should benefit them considering he went up against the Lions defense in practice everyday last season. EDGE: RAIDERS
Detroit is 2-13 SU & 6-9 ATS its last 15 road games.


Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

The Chargers not only have a new head coach in Norv Turner, but also new offensive and defensive coordinators. Turner also has ties to the Bears as brother Ron is Chicago's offensive coordinator while San Diego LB coach Ron Rivera was the defensive coordinator of the defending NFC champs last season. EDGE: CHARGERS
Both the Bears and Chargers are coming off disappointing endings to last season with a lot left to prove this year. Chicago played last postseason without two of the team's best defensive players in safety Mike Brown and tackle Tommie Harris, both of whom should be ready to go in the season opener following injuries. The key to this game likely will be decided by the amount of pressure San Diego All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman can put on mistake-prone QB Rex Grossman. EDGE: CHARGERS
Chicago's offense is expected to be even more lethal this year with the addition of Devin Hester as a wide receiver and Bernard Berrian emerging as one of the best deep threats in the NFL. Grossman's ability to get the ball to the team's top playmakers against a suspect San Diego secondary could help the Bears pull off an upset here. EDGE: BEARS
Super Bowl losers are 1-10 ATS on the road the last 11 years in the opening game of the season.
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 16-5-1 in Chicago's last 22 games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

Injuries decimated the Seahawks offense last year, as 2005 NFL MVP Shaun Alexander missed six games with a foot injury and QB Matt Hasselbeck was out four with a sprained knee and two broken fingers. This team still managed to break a string of five straight Super Bowl losers to miss out on the postseason, losing to Chicago 27-24 in overtime of January's divisional playoffs. They have high expectations of returning to the Super Bowl and must start out strong here. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
The Seattle secondary is a weak spot, something new Bucs QB Jeff Garcia and the Tampa passing game will look to attack. Garcia is the man head coach Jon Gruden targeted to lead his offense when he was with the Raiders, and some insiders believe his best days are behind him. SLIGHT EDGE: BUCS
Seattle is 16-3 SU & 12-6 ATS at home the last two years.
Seattle is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 season openers.
The OVER was 11-6 for Seattle in 2004, 12-7 in 2005 and 10-7 last season for a combined mark of 33-20 over the last three years.


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (NBC | 8:15 PM ET)

The Giants are a team consumed with turmoil as head coach Tom Coughlin was nearly fired at the end of last season until Tiki (I am retired) Barber bailed him out. Not many believe Brandon Jacobs is the answer to fill the massive void left by the departure, and team insiders were very surprised to see the Giants basically sit out of the free agent market. A key for New York will be how well the defense holds it together through the first half of the season, needing to improve on a 25 th-ranked unit from a year ago. EDGE: COWBOYS
The Giants got battered and bruised in the preseason while going 1-3. LB Kawika Mitchell got banged up late in August and the secondary had all kinds of problems: Cornerback Sam Madison pulled his hamstring and missed Week 4, while safety Will Demps is expected to miss another week with a dislocated right elbow. WR Michael Jennings is out for the season. EDGE: COWBOYS
The Giants are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
The Giants have a strong history - going 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings - and Dallas is just 1-6 SU in its last seven season openers.
Four of the last five games between these rivals have been decided by 4, 3, 7 and 3 points.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Points of Interest

NFL

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Points of Interest
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NFL FOR SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Kansas City at HOUSTON (-3; 37½)—K.C. coach Herm Edwards says the
plan will be to try to limit the number of carries for Larry Johnson, who was a
holdout out until after the second exhibition and got only 3 carries in the
preseason. Michael Bennett will spell Johnson from time to time. K.C. DE
Jared Allen (second on the team with 7½ sacks LY) is out, serving a two-game
NFL suspension. First start for new Houston QB Matt Schaub, who started two
games (losing both) during his three years as Michael Vick’s backup in
Atlanta. And first start for former Packer Ahman Green as the team’s new
feature RB.

Denver (-3; 37) at BUFFALO—Denver starting G Ben Hamilton, who has
not missed an offensive snap in the last five years, will be out at least two
weeks due to lingering effects of a concussion. And stalwart WR Rod Smith
remains out with a hip injury. New Bronco RB Travis Henry, signed as a free
agent from Tennessee in the offseason, returns to Buffalo, where he began his
career and later became upset when the team drafted Willis McGahee after
Henry had enjoyed two 1000-yard seasons. Rookie Selvin Young of Texas
has won the No. 2 RB job behind Henry; Mike Bell is being moved to FB.

Buffalo goes into the game shorthanded up front on the flanks, with DE
Anthony Hargrove suspended for the first four games, and starting OLB Keith
Ellison, backup DE Ryan Denney, and backup DE Al Wallace (season) all out
with injuries. And the Bills plan on starting three new OLmen (LG Derrick
Dockery from Washington, RG Jason Whittle from Minnesota, and RT
Langston Walker from Oakland).

Pittsburgh (-4½; 36½) at CLEVELAND—Three-year veteran Charlie Frye
has been named the starting QB for the Browns. Cleveland starting CB Leigh
Bodden is expected to play despite his arrest following a traffic stop by police.
Bodden was jailed for being combative and resisting arrest and faces possible
disciplinary action from the NFL. Veteran CB Gary Baxter (torn patellar
tendons in both knees LY) is not ready to return. The Steelers have been
working on a no-huddle spread offense much of the summer, and they
might try to employ it in this game, considering the Browns’ unsettled CB
situation, which is likely to put rookie Eric Wright in a prominent role.

Cleveland’s jumbled OL situation (suspension, injuries) remains unsettled
going into the weekend.

Tennessee at JACKSONVILLE (-7; 38)—David Garrard (5-5 SU as a
starter LY) takes over as the clear-cut No. 1 in Jacksonville with the release of
Byron Leftwich. Three of those losses came in the Jaguars last three games,
as the Jags fell to 8-8 LY and out of the AFC playoffs. The first of those defeats
was 24-17 at Tennessee.

Carolina at ST. LOUIS (-1; 42½)—Rams’ star WR Torry Holt, who has
been slow coming back from arthro knee surgery six months ago, is expected
to play. HC Scott Linehan says Holt looks near 100% to him, although
observers say Holt is not yet fully healthy and that the knee might bother him
all year. Meanwhile, St. Louis starting CB Fakhir Brown is suspended for the
first four games, with Carolina all-pro WR Steve Smith saying he’s set a goal
of becoming the first wideout to have a 2000-yard season TY. New offensive
coordinator Jeff Davidson has spent much of the offseason trying to find more
creative ways for the Panthers to get the ball to their top offensive threat.

Philadelphia (-3; 42½) at GREEN BAY—Rookie RB Brandon Jackson
(concussion; DNP in the team’s final preseason game) is expected to start for
G.B. after leading the team in rushing in the exhibitions (40 for 131 YR; 3.3
ypc). WR Donald Driver (foot) is expected to see action; WR Greg Jennings
(hamstring) has been limited in practice and is questionable.

Atlanta at MINNESOTA (-3; 35½)—RB Warrick Dunn, still recovering full
strength following back surgery prior to training camp, has been named to start
for the Falcons. Dunn, who has led the Falcons in rushing each of the past
three seasons, was limited to just 14 plays in the preseason and admits there
could be some “ragged edges” as he tries to blend in with new QB Joey
Harrington in the new offense installed by new HC Bobby Petrino from
Louisville. Penetrating DT Rod Coleman (blood drained from quad; six sacks
LY) and starting S Chris Crocker (knee) are not expected to play for Atlanta.
TE Alge Crumpler continues to battle a sore knee and has been limited in
practice
Minnesota MLB E.J. Henderson (illness), a key cog in the Vikes’ No.
1 rush defense LY, has returned to practice and is probable.

Miami at WASHINGTON (-3; 34½)—Washington RB Clinton Portis, held
out of action in the preseason, is ready to go. Todd Collins, 35, has moved
ahead of Mark Brunell, soon to be 37, as the Redskins’ No. 2 QB. Miami OLB
Joey Porter, who missed all of the preseason (arthro knee surgery), is
expected to start for Miami, but is not yet 100%. Veteran Danny Spragan filled
in this summer.

New England (-6½; 40½) at NEW YORK JETS—Randy Moss (hamstring
problem in the preseason) is expected to see action, but might not play full
time. Rugged defenders SS Rodney Harrison (suspension) & DE Richard
Seymour (knee) are out. Jets’ RB Thomas Jones (calf) is probable.

Tampa Bay at SEATTLE (-5½; 41)—T.B. has signed former Philly MLB
Jeremiah Trotter in an effort to shore up its thin LB platoon. Insiders are
dubious about the move, saying the slowing Trotter will more than have his
hands fulls dealing with emerging third-year Seattle C Chris Spencer (No. 1
pick in 2005) and catching up with Shaun Alexander, now healthy after LY’s
foot problems.

Chicago at SAN DIEGO (-6; 42½)—Rookie TE Greg Olsen, the top draft
pick of the Bears, is very doubtful with a knee injury. Debut of new S.D.
coach Norv Turner, whose brother, Ron, is offensive coordinator of the
Bears! Ron Rivera, defensive coordinator of Chicago LY, is now the LB
coach with the Chargers.

Detroit at OAKLAND (-2½; 39½)—Josh McCown, who was with the Lions
LY, is expected to start at QB for the Raiders ahead of Daunte Culpepper, who
was signed just prior to the start of training camp. Rookie HC Lane Kiffin
reportedly prefers McCown (0 TDs, 0 ints. in preseason) in Game One
because McCown (22 career starts with the Cardinals between 2003-05) has
a greater grasp of the entire new Oakland offense installed by Kiffin, featuring
a faster tempo and quicker throws. And McCown is more mobile, a useful trait
behind the restructured Raider OL. Lastly, Culpepper (4 TDs, 1 int. in
exhibition play) has performed well off the bench in the preseason running a
limited amount of plays. Second-round draft pick Zach Miller of Arizona State
will start at TE. With Dominic Rhodes suspended (four games), Justin Fargas
will be the backup for starting RB LaMont Jordan. For Detroit, RB Kevin Jones
(persistent foot problems) has been upgraded to questionable, but Tatum Bell
is likely to start and split carries with T.J. Duckett. Huge DT Shaun Rogers
(knee) has returned to practice and is questionable, but didn’t appear to be
100% in limited workouts. Although the Raiders were an awful 2-14 under
Art Shell LY, their has been a rebirth of enthusiasm under Kiffin and the
game is a sellout.

New York Giants at DALLAS (-6; 44)—Dallas WR Terry Glenn, after being
cleared to return, has suffered a knee injury in practice and is out. CB
Terrence Newman (heel) has missed early practices and is doubtful. N.Y. DE
Michael Strahan (132½ career sacks; now 35 years old), who ended his
holdout a few days ago, says he feels good after initial practices and expects
to play. HC Tom Coughlin is expected to wait until Saturday before deciding
whether to use Strahan (missed all exhibitions) in Dallas. WR Plaxico
Burress, out the entire preseason (back & ankle injuries), is expected to play.


NFL FOR MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Baltimore at CINCINNATI (-2½; 40½)—Baltimore starting LT Jonathon
Ogden (toe tendon; missed all four exhibitions) remains questionable, but has
been participating in limited practices this week. Cincy WR T.J.
Houshmandzadeh, an effective weapon in the past vs. the Ravens, is doubtful
with a knee injury. However, the Bengals are most concerned about their
depleted LB corps, with Odell Thurman still suspended, Brian Simmons lost to
N.O. in free agency, and new starting OLB Rashad Jeanty (lower leg) is not
expected to be ready for Game One.

Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO (-3; 45)—49er star RB Frank Gore (held out
of the preseason due to a hand fracture) is reportedly virtually 100%. Scouts
reports Gore has demonstrated fresh legs and has appeared very light on his
feet this week after being spared the pounding of training camp. This is the
head coaching debut of Ken Whisenhunt of Arizona, offensive coordinator of
the Steelers LY. Whisenhunt (0-4 in the preseason) will call the plays and is
promising to develop a ground game with the Cardinals, who have won the last
four meetings with S.F.
The Niners will honor their late coach Bill Walsh at the game, wearing
throwback uniforms featuring cherry-red jerseys and a version of their Walshera
pants. The players will wear “BW” patches on their helmets. And Walsh
will be
practice. Minnesota MLB E.J. Henderson (illness), a key cog in the Vikes’ No.
1 rush defense LY, has returned to practice and is probable.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Sunday, September 9

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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

Chad Pennington's New York Jets will be trying to hold off the New England Patriots at home in their season opener on Sunday afternoon. Here's the Week 1 NFL Gameday…

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Green Bay Packers (Total 42.5)
Lambeau Field, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

The Eagles were written off for dead when Donovan McNabb went down with an injury last season, but they surged to a 10-6 record and the NFC East division title in his absence. Now McNabb is back and healthy, and he'll be looking to reclaim his team, starting this week versus the Packers. Philadelphia went only 1-3 during the preseason.

Green Bay's 8-8 record was a minor surprise last season; one more win and they would've qualified for the playoffs. Brett Favre will be trying to get that extra victory this year, and he'll be hoping for good health from wide receiver Donald Driver and running backs Brandon Jackson and Vernand Morency. The Packers went 2-2 in the preseason.


New England Patriots (-6.5) at New York Jets (Total 41)
Giants Stadium, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

The Patriots' 12-4 mark in 2006 was good enough to win them the AFC East division title, but they weren't eventually good enough to get back to the Super Bowl. Now Tom Brady is armed with a couple extra receivers, and he'll be gunning for a return to the championship game for his team. New England had a 2-2 mark during the preseason.

The Jets finished two games back of the Pats last year, but they still managed to make an appearance in the playoffs. Chad Pennington's health could determine how far they get this year, and they'll also be looking for a productive season from new running back Thomas Jones, who is battling a calf injury. New York had a 3-1 mark in the preseason.


Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (-6) (Total 42.5)
Qualcomm Stadium, 4:15pm ET (FOX)

The Bears had the best record (by far) in their conference in 2006, but they came up just short in the playoffs. Rex Grossman will be back to lead Chicago's charge again in 2007, although his critics are already out in full force. Bears tight end Greg Olsen has been battling a knee injury over the past week. Chicago went 3-1 during the preseason.

San Diego also had the best record in their conference last year, but they were knocked off prior to the Super Bowl. As a result, Marty Schottenheimer was fired from his head-coaching duties, and Norv Turner was brought in as his replacement. Turner will now look to take the Chargers deep into the playoffs. San Diego went 3-1 in the preseason.


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6) (Total 44)
Texas Stadium, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

An 8-8 record isn't much to brag about, but that mark was good enough to get the Giants into the postseason last year. New York allowed more points than they scored in 2006, and they'll be trying to turn that number around and get a breakout campaign from Eli Manning as they strive for success in '07. New York went 1-3 in the preseason.

The Cowboys were sandwiched between the Eagles and the Giants in the NFC East standings last season, and they were eliminated from the playoffs on a fluke mishap. Dallas and QB Tony Romo will be looking to make amends for that play under the stewardship of new head coach Wade Phillips. The Cowboys went 2-2 in the preseason.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet

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Sunday, September 9

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (6 - 2 - 1) at MONTREAL (5 - 4) - 9/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 8 days rest since 1996.
MONTREAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SASKATCHEWAN (7 - 2) at WINNIPEG (5 - 3 - 1) - 9/9/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 78-46 ATS (+27.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Sunday, September 9

B C Lions (6-2-1) @ Montreal (5-4)-- Alouettes got drilled 46-14 LW in Vancouver, as Lions ran ball for 275 yards, and sacked Al QB's five times. Win ended 0-2-1 skid for BC; they're 3-1-1 in road games, with wins by 2,30,5 points. Montreal had won four in row before last week; they won last three home games, by 2, 12 and 18 points. Lions scored 91 points in last two games.

Saskatchewan (7-2) @ Winnipeg (5-3-1)-- Roughriders needed late heroics to nip Bombers in Regina LW, 31-26 (TY 488-482 in Winnipeg's favor), their fifth win in row. Riders are 3-1 on road, losing only at Edmonton (they led 20-1 at the half in that game). Winnipeg is 3-1 at home, losing only to Edmonton; six of their nine games this season were decided by five or less points.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Hot Lines

CFL
Hot Lines

Makin’ Canadian bacon: Week 11 CFL picks

BC Lions at Montreal Alouettes (+1, 51)
Sunday, Sept. 9, 1 p.m. ET

I really misfired on this matchup last week, but judging by the chatter in the forum, I wasn’t alone. The Lions racked up 275 rushing yards against the league’s second-best run defense en route to scoring 43 points over the game’s final 33 minutes.

BC also kept Anthony Calvillo under constant pressure and kept Jarrett Payton out of the game by building a big lead. In other words, the Lions won both trench battles and proved why the West is the better division last Friday night.

The Als now return to the comfort of Percival Molson Memorial Stadium where they’ve won their last three games. The problem will be stopping a BC team that’s scored 45, 32 and 42 points respectively in its last three road games (2-0-1 straight up, 3-0 against the spread).

Jarious Jackson starts again for the Leos and Montreal can expect another heavy dose of BC’s ground attack. Of course, the club also expected it last week but didn’t do much to stop it.

Pick: Lions -1


Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-2 ½, 50 ½)
Sunday, Sept. 9, 4 p.m. ET

Last Saturday’s clash in Regina delivered on the pre-game hype, but the Riders didn’t deliver a payday in their exciting 31-26 win.

This is the one game this weekend where I expect to see a big difference from the front end of the home-and-home series because Saskatchewan has shown more ability to learn from its mistakes than any other team. The Riders avenged their two losses this season in style, holding the Lions to nine points at BC Place after losing to BC at home earlier in the season and laying 54 points on the Eskimos a week after collapsing at Commonwealth.

Though Saskatchewan didn’t lose the game last Saturday, its young secondary certainly lost the battle against Winnipeg’s aerial attack. Richie Hall, Saskatchewan’s defensive coordinator, won’t stand for such shenanigans. An improved effort from the youngsters next Sunday should let the Riders maintain their title as the CFL’s strongest team.

Pick: Roughriders +2 ½

Last week: 1-3

Year to date: 16-20

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[pm530]

Major League Soccer

MLS

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MLS Preview
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Sunday, Sept. 9, 2007 (All times Eastern)


New England (12-5-6) at D.C. (13-6-4), 7:30 p.m.

Washington, D.C. - The top two teams in Major League Soccer - the New England Revolution and D.C. United - will square off on Sunday at RFK Stadium to decide, not only who takes the top spot in the Eastern table, but who takes the lead in the race for the 2007 Supporter's Shield, awarded to the team with the best record after the regular season.

United had its six-game winning streak snapped at CD Chivas USA Thursday when it blew a 2-0 lead to draw at two, but it still has a seven-game unbeaten streak intact.

"We started out well," D.C. coach Tom Soehn said of the Chivas game Thursday. "We had about 20 minutes of soccer in us and you could see it wasn't the same throughout the rest of the game. They had chances. We'll take it."

"(Chivas) actually brought the game to us pretty well, but you expect that on the road," D.C. defender Bobby Boswell said. "We can't get down about it; we got a point on the road, so it's not the end of the world."

Two goals by Luciano Emilio - his league-leading 15th and 16th of the campaign - gave United the early lead before Chivas came storming back.

"It's more than just Luciano," Soehn said. "Luciano is the beneficiary of a lot of good players around him. He creates a lot of opportunities, he is opportunistic. When he gets a chance he finishes it off. You name it, he's got a lot of supporting cast."

Last season's league MVP Christian Gomez, the league's all-time leading scorer Jaime Moreno and offseason acquisition Fred are just a few of the players who have excelled this season for United - along with Emilio.

"Jaime (Moreno) and Christian (Gomez) and I have worked on a lot of give and go plays, and we're always looking for each other," Emilio said. "That's helped me score a lot of goals."

With the point, United was still able to take the top spot in the East, one point up on New England, which was off last week. The Revs last fixture was a 2-1 win over New York on Aug. 25 in which a Carlos Mendes own goal late sealed the victory.

"I am kind of divided to be honest," New England coach Steve Nicol said after the win against the Red Bulls. "I think that we made some chances but I don't think we particularly controlled the game - not that they did either. It was a wee bit scrappy out there, to be fair. But it is getting to that time of the year where it is points that matter more than anything else and we got three tonight. We would have liked to have been a lot more fluid, but we won and got three points. An unusual way to get it, but we'll take it."

Despite the week of from league play, the Revs had an important game this past week in a U.S. Open Cup semifinal. Pat Noonan scored minutes into overtime as New England defeated the Carolina RailHawks, 2-1, on Tuesday to advance to the U.S. Open Cup championship against the winner of the other semifinal - FC Dallas. The Hoops will host the championship on Wednesday, Oct. 3.

After the league fixture at D.C. Sunday, the Revs will host Dallas next Saturday while United host Real Salt Lake - which it has already lost to this season - on Wednesday.



New York (11-9-3) at CD Chivas USA (11-6-4), 8 p.m.

Carson, CA (Sports Network) - CD Chivas USA will be looking to extend its home unbeaten streak when another Eastern Conference power - Red Bull New York - visits The Home Depot Center Sunday in a Major League Soccer fixture.

The Goats came back from a two-goal deficit against D.C., the hottest team in the league, Thursday, to earn a 2-2 draw and extend its home unbeaten streak to nine games.

"I thought we could have won (the D.C. game)," Chivas USA forward Ante Razov said. "We were the better team, for sure. To come back from two-nil down, against a team like them is a positive sign. We started flat tonight, but in the second half we came back out with a little more energy."

"I thought we started pretty slow," Chivas USA coach Preki said, "basically, handing them two goals. After that, it was an uphill climb. I give my guys a lot of credit. they showed a lot of character tonight to come back from two- nothing down against the best team in the league. That shows how far we have come as a group. Obviously, we have never beat D.C., or even taken a point from them, so this is good for out confidence as well."

Defender Lawson Vaughn scored the game-tying goal late after Sacha Kljestan passed to him at the top of the box. he fired a shot that was deflected by a United defender before finding the back of the net.

"It is my first (MLS) goal," Vaughn said. "I just tried to keep the ball low, on target. it was a great ball by Sacha. He had it and took on a couple of defenders, as he always does and does so well. I saw it and he just laid it out perfectly for me."

There Red Bulls are coming off a hard-fought 1-0 win over Chicago last weekend on a Juan Pablo Angel late winner.

"I think it was a good goal, pretty lucky," Angel said. "I think it was a good play from Dane (Richards). He was a threat the whole game. He kept going and at the end we found one chance and we took it. I just wanted to hit it once because the goalkeeper was on his way out and I just took him by surprise I think.

"I was waiting for one opportunity. I was begging for it and at the end it came and it was good to score," he added.

"It was a difficulty game," New York coach Bruce Arena said. "Chicago came in with a game plan that obviously took on a defensive posture that was difficult to break down. It made it difficult for us and it was pretty predictable from the opening kickoff that it was going to be a 1-0 game. We knew during the week that we would have to create goal scoring opportunities and fortunately we finished off a good opportunity. At this point in the year, it is critical to separate yourself with teams in the conference and that was certainly accomplished (against Chicago)."

Arena expects a tight, defensive game Sunday, similar to the one against Chicago last weekend.

"A lot of teams are going to be very well organized and difficult to break down (down the stretch) and I think we will see it Sunday in L.A. with Chivas," he said.

New York will probably be without its second-leading scorer, Jozy Altidore, in the game for the second straight week because of what the Red Bulls are calling a lower leg injury.

The game is critical for both sides as New York is fighting to stay within striking distance of eastern leaders D.C. and New England and Chivas looks to overtake the Houston Dynamo in the West.

After Sunday's fixture, New York travel to Chicago for a match at Toyota Park next Saturday while CD Chivas USA plays Thursday against L.A. in the Super Clasico.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB

Sunday, September 9

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Tips and Trends
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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers (1:05 PM ET)

Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is 1-2 with a 1.96 ERA in three career starts versus Detroit. The right-hander picked up a 3-2 home victory over the Tigers on July 12, allowing two runs on 10 hits over 6 1/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: MARINERS
Hernandez has posted a solid 6-3 record and 3.77 ERA in 11 road starts this season. Opposing batters are hitting just .248 against him on the road, compared to .312 at Safeco Field. EDGE: MARINERS
Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman is 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA in seven career starts versus the Mariners. He led the Tigers to a 6-3 road victory over Seattle on July 13, giving up three runs and six hits over seven innings. EDGE: TIGERS
Bonderman is 4-3 with a 4.25 ERA in 12 daytime starts this season. The right-hander has allowed just seven home runs under the sun in 78 1/3 innings, which is much better than the 18 home runs he’s allowed in 94 2/3 innings at night. SLIGHT EDGE: TIGERS


Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (1:35 PM ET)

Boston right-hander Josh Beckett is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career starts versus Baltimore. The hard-throwing starter has fanned an incredible 30 batters and walked just four in 35 2/3 innings against them. EDGE: RED SOX
Beckett has been truly dominated away from Fenway Park, going 9-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 11 starts. He picked up a 4-3 defeat in his last start on the road, as the Yankees pounded out 13 hits against the right-hander. EDGE: RED SOX
Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie is 2-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 13 home outings this season. The Orioles have lost his last three starts at Camden Yards, as the right-hander has allowed six home runs over that span. EDGE: RED SOX
Guthrie has a losing 1-2 record during the day, but carries a very impressive 2.49 ERA. He’s limited batters to just a .179 average under the sun, nearly 100 points lower than his .272 opposing batting average at night. EDGE: ORIOLES


San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (3:05 PM ET)

San Diego starter Chris Young is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA in eight career starts versus Colorado. He’s allowed just 30 hits and 12 walks in 45 1/3 innings against them. BIG EDGE: PADRES
Young has struggled over his last three starts, allowing 14 runs and four homers over his last 13 1/3 innings. The big right-hander has also issued 17 walks over his last five starts. EDGE: ROCKIES
Colorado’s Josh Fogg is an even 2-2 with a 5.93 ERA in eight career starts versus San Diego. He was handed a lopsided 11-1 defeat by the Padres on April 20 at Petco Park, allowing seven earned runs and 11 hits over three innings. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES
Fogg has posted a 4-3 record and 4.44 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break. The right-hander picked up a 4-3 victory in his first start of September, giving up two runs and seven hits over six innings. SLIGHT EDGE: ROCKIES


St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (4:40 PM ET)

St. Louis right-hander Kip Wells is an even 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in six career outings versus Arizona. He’s an even 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA in three starts at Chase Field, allowing nine runs and 19 hits over 18 1/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: D-BACKS
Wells has struggled mightily during the day, posting a 1-5 record and 7.07 ERA in eight starts. Batters are hitting .320 against him during the day, which is 50 points higher than his nighttime outings. EDGE: D-BACKS
Arizona’s Doug Davis has a losing 4-5 record and 4.81 ERA in 12 career outings versus St. Louis. The left-hander picked up a 3-2 loss against the Cardinals on July 5, allowing just three runs and seven hits over seven innings. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS
Davis has impressed at Chase Field this season, notching an 8-3 record and 4.40 ERA in 15 home starts. The Diamondbacks have outscored opponents 12-2 in his last two starts at home. EDGE: D-BACKS


Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels (ESPN | 8:05 PM ET)

Cleveland’s Aaron Laffey will make just his sixth start of the season in front of a national audience. The left-hander has allowed just two home runs this season over 27 1/3 innings. EDGE: INDIANS
Even though the Indians have picked up four straight victories with Laffey on the hill, he’s allowed 15 earned runs over his last 22 innings of work. His only loss came during his season debut on August 4, as he allowed three runs and six hits against Minnesota. SLIGHT EDGE: ANGELS
Los Angeles starter Jered Weaver is an impressive 6-2 with a 3.44 ERA in 12 home starts this season. The second-year starter has picked up victories in his last three starts at Angel Stadium, allowing just four earned runs and 17 hits over his last 19 1/3 innings. EDGE: ANGELS
Weaver has posted a 1-0 record and 3.50 ERA in three career starts against the Tribe. He’s allowed just one home run to the Tribe in 18 innings of work. SLIGHT EDGE: ANGELS

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