Capping NFL is Easier when you have the info!

[Spearit]

Well- its that time again to take note of where we have been and pray like hell it may reoccur! I get this stuff off of other sites and try to make some sense of it here at B/C. To get the analysis of all the writing - slip to the end.

This is just one way to view the first week in pro football - please add more info on either side and voila- hopefully solid plays result. Lets get started!

Please note: These trends are sorted by net units above zero, not the likelihood of the angle occurring again in 2007.

1. (+16.7 Units) On extreme Week 1 Totals (35 or less, 45 or higher), UNDER’s have hit at a 31-13 rate for 70.4%
’07 Plays: New Orleans-Indianapolis Under 50.5, Arizona-San Francisco Under 45

2. (+12.4 Units) Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 19-6 ATS (76.0%) in Week 1 since ‘97
’07 Plays: Houston –2.5, Minnesota –3, Oakland –1.5, Cincinnati –3

3. (+11.9 Units) On posted totals in the 40-44.5 range, the OVER has converted at a 62.5% rate (35-21)
’07 Plays: Carolina-St Louis Over 41.5, Philadelphia-Green Bay Over 43.5, New England-NY Jets Over 41, Tampa Bay-Seattle Over 41.5, Chicago-San Diego Over 42.5, NY Giants-Dallas Over 44, Baltimore-Cincinnati over 40.5

4. (+10.8 Units) Road Underdogs of greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown (-3.5 to –6.5) have won at a 24-12 mark for 66.7% over the last 10 seasons.
’07 Plays: New Orleans +6, Tennessee +6.5, Tampa Bay +6, Chicago +5.5, NY Giants +5

5. (+5.0 Units) Double-digit Underdogs in the first week of the regular season are 5-0 ATS (100%) since ’97.
’07 Plays: NONE

6. (+4.9 Units) Road Underdogs facing an opponent who finished .500 or worse a year ago are 28-21 (57.1%) on opening weekend since ’97.
’07 Plays: Kansas City +2.5, Tennessee +6.5, Atlanta +3, Miami +3, Detroit +1.5, Arizona +3

7. (+4.3 Units) Non-Divisional Conference Home Underdogs are on a nice run of 12-7 ATS for 63.2% success.
’07 Plays: Buffalo +3.5, Green Bay +3

8. (+4.1 Units) Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 25 of 44 opportunities, for 56.8%.
’07 Plays: Indianapolis –6, Houston –2.5, Jacksonville –6.5, San Diego –5.5, Dallas –5, Cincinnati –3

9. (+3.8 Units) Divisional Home Favorites of –1 to –3 points in Week 1 are 6-2 ATS (75.0%) in their last eight opportunities.
’07 Plays: Cincinnati –3, San Francisco -3

10. (+3.3 Units) Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07 Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5

11. (+3.3 Units) Road Favorites in Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) run.
’07 Plays: Philadelphia -3, New England –6.512. (+3.3 Units)

Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own an 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07 Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5

13. (+3.0 Units) Overall, Home Underdogs of greater than a field goal - 3.5 points or more - are 14-10 ATS (58.3%) over the last 10 seasons in Week 1.
’07 Plays: Cleveland +4.5, NY Jets +6.5

14. (+3.0 Units) When a Week 1 Home Underdog had a better SU record the prior year, that team is 3-0-1 ATS (100%)
’07 Plays: NONE

15. (+2.9 Units) Home Underdogs facing an opponent that had a losing record in the prior season are on a 4-1-1 ATS run (80%)
’07 Plays: NONE

Using a simple mathematical formula of adding the combined units for each of our 15 trends, this would be the top 15 plays for NFL Week 1:

1. Cincinnati –3 (20.3 Units)
2. New Orleans-Indianapolis Under 50.5 (+16.7 Units)
Arizona-San Francisco Under 45 (+16.7 Units)
4. Carolina-St Louis Over 41.5 (+11.9 Units)
Philadelphia-Green Bay Over 43.5 (+11.9 Units)
New England-NY Jets Over 41 (+11.9 Units)
Tampa Bay-Seattle Over 41.5 (+11.9 Units)
Chicago-San Diego Over 42.5 (+11.9 Units)
NY Giants-Dallas Over 44 (+11.9 Units)
Baltimore-Cincinnati over 40.5 (+11.9 Units)
11. Houston –2.5 (+11.6 Units)
Tennessee +6.5
13. Tampa Bay +6.5 (+10.8 Units)
14. Minnesota –3 (+7.5 Units)
Oakland –1.5 (+7.5 Units)

Surely the logic used in determining the top 15 plays will be argued for merit by some handicappers, but in any case, I hope you enjoyed the information. Good luck with your plays and enjoy NFL Kickoff ’07

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Spearit!

[THENDY]

interesting stuff spearit. Now i have to factor in my gut instinct with my wallet calcualtions and ill be rich

[tech fan]

Thanks For The Info Buddy

[BigWeiner]

I like the Bengals!

[Spearit]

Detroit Lions: First drive: nine passes, one rush attempt – this is most assuredly Mike Martz’s offense right now, on full display. Of course when Jon Kitna is throwing interceptions in the end zone, like he did on this drive and in the first week as well, Martz’s offense isn’t going to work. Then again, when Kitna went down with an injury in the first half, the offense didn’t work with J.T. O’Sullivan either. O’Sullivan made a lot of very bad reads in this ballgame, as Minnesota successfully disguised their coverages. Detroit's receiving corps is downright scary – Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson both have that size/speed combination that we don’t often see, each with a touchdown here on play calls that were virtually unstoppable. It seems as if the Lions don’t respond well to good fortune. They blew a 17-point lead last week before pulling out the game late, and blew another double-digit lead here. This is not an easy team to lay points with.

Carolina Panthers: How does this defense replace Mark Minter at safety? They don’t, as evidenced by the way Houston picked them apart over the middle all afternoon. Steve Smith’s first touchdown catch showed why he is the single best wide receiver in the NFL today. Not many guys could tap the ball to themselves up in the air in the end zone, but Smith did just that. And he’s doing it all without a proven threat on the other side – Drew Carter and Keary Colbert continue to disappoint. Second-round draft choice Dwayne Jarrett has yet to catch his first NFL pass; he's the fourth receiver in an offense that never uses four receiver sets. Where is the running game? Deshawn Foster and DeAngelo Williams are both great backs, with that power and speed combination that defines elite NFL rushers, but neither one has holes to run through.

St. Louis Rams: Mark Bulger is taking an absolute beating, trying to hit downfield receivers behind a porous offensive line. Bulger won’t stay healthy for another month if he keeps getting hit like this. But I love the structure of this offense as much as any in the NFL. Steven Jackson runs the ball up the gut, then Bulger tests opposing defenses vertically if they cheat up to stop the run. No dink and dunk here. And don’t tell me that Issac Bruce has lost a step, or that Torry Holt isn’t 100 percent – these two receivers remain the class of the NFL and are virtually unstoppable in single coverage. But the red zone offense has not been good since the start of preseason. Sunday, after their first touchdown (off a turnover), the Rams had three red zone possessions: two field goals and a fumble. That’s not going to win games.

New Orleans Saints: What happened to their downfield passing game? This offense was all dink and dunk against the Colts last week, and it's all dink and dunk here. Remember when we used to rip Sean Payton for his unimaginative playcalling as the offensive coordinator in Dallas? This looks very much like that offense now, after being remarkably creative last year. So much for the reigning NFL coach of the year. And the offensive line play here is clearly down – Drew Brees is under pressure and neither Reggie Bush nor Deuce McAllister has much room to run. Holding penalties, false starts – what the heck happened to this O-line in the offseason? All five starters return. The Cover-2 defense is giving them all kinds of problems. They’ve only had one play longer than 25 yards in their first two games against a pair of Cover-2 defenses.

Seattle Seahawks: Seattle has been a team prone to flat spots throughout the Mike Holmgren era. They went 0-4 ATS as a road favorite last year, losing three of those games outright; just 7-16 ATS as a road favorite in the last eight years of the Holmgren era. Make that 7-17 ATS as road chalk following this loss. This is a very mature team – no panic when they were trailing by 17 on the road; no finger pointing, just a steadfast determination to play better and get back in the game. At the same time, with the game on the line, running their two-minute offense with the game tied late in the fourth quarter, there’s absolutely no excuse for a fumbled handoff between Hasselbeck and Alexander. How does that happen between two veterans who have been playing together for years?

Minnesota Vikings: As strong as this team is against the run, their pass coverage leaves a lot to be desired. There is plenty of room in the secondary for big gainers against them. And with Tavaris Jackson extremely limited in his ability to successfully pass the ball downfield, good passing teams should have some success against Minnesota. This team is not built to trade points with anybody. That being said, it’s pretty clear after two games in the NFL that rookie running back Adrian Peterson is a special talent. He was a man among boys at the collegiate level and he’s running with the same bullish style here in the pros. Peterson also has the breakaway speed to get Brad Childress the big play TDs that he desperately covets. This defense is stressing out totals bettors – scoring three defensive touchdowns in two games. And both games still went under the total! No team in the league has more defensive TDs over the last two seasons – not Chicago, not New England and not Baltimore.

[Spearit]

NFC

San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco’s pass rush looks very good, even when they only rush four. They are putting all kinds of pressure on the opposing quarterback. Manny Lawson is an absolute beast! Darrel Jackson alligator-armed a key third down pass on Monday night and then dropped the potential game-winning touchdown pass on the final drive. Now he’s hurt, sitting on the sidelines. With all the money San Francisco spent on free agents in the offseason, one has to wonder if it was spent wisely. Arnaz Battle, Vernon Davis and other homegrown products seem far more productive at wideout than the new additions, despite Jackson’s three catches in the first half. Great coverage units on special teams mean there could be a hidden against-the-spread (ATS) benefit for 49ers backers down the road. The Rams started seven consecutive drives from inside their own 20 in this game, as the Niners won the field-position war all day.

Chicago Bears: This offense looks much more comfortable running methodical drives, slowly but surely marching their way down the field. Last year, it was all about big play touchdowns. Chicago didn’t have the patience for 15-play drives, like they had with their first TD on Sunday. Remember, despite their great defense, the Bears were an over team extraordinaire last year, particularly at home (9-1 over/under record, including the playoffs), with the lone under coming in their meaningless season finale. Chicago has gone under the total by a combined four touchdowns in their first two games this year. But the big-play ability of the Bears on defense and special teams reared its head again, with a Devin Hester punt return touchdown. It makes under bettors nervous every time he touches the football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This offense is night-and-day better with a quarterback who can create, like Jeff Garcia. Garcia can scramble out of the pocket. He can create extra time and improvise, making something out of nothing, like he did repeatedly on Tampa Bay’s first touchdown drive. With the Bucs offensive line (still a work in progress, to be gentle), a quarterback like Garcia is worth his weight in gold in comparison to last year’s Bruce Gradkowski and Chris Simms. Monte Kiffin’s Cover 2 defense is leaps and bounds better when they don’t get worn down in the second half from picking up the slack from an offense that goes three and out on every possession, as happened repeatedly last year.

Arizona Cardinals: This defense is really playing well. They shut down the Niners for 59 minutes in their first game, and the Seattle Seahawks for the first 28 minutes on Sunday. Maybe they should work on their two-minute drill defense, though, as they gave up touchdowns both times. Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast has to be pleased with the play of the secondary in particular, a perceived weakness that was very strong Sunday with Eric Green and Roderick Hood at cornerback. And Arizona played a real smashmouth game at the line of scrimmage offensively, running the football successfully throughout. All of a sudden Ken Whisenhunt’s new team looks a lot like his old team; Arizona just might be "Pittsburgh South". And with the youth on the offensive line, particularly on the right side with rookie Levi Brown at tackle and second-year player Deuce Lutui at guard, we can expect this unit to only get better. But for the second straight week, the Cardinals offense went missing for most of the second half, after they had taken a lead.

Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo isn’t pretty to watch when he runs out of the pocket – he’s no Vince Young – but he has nice escapability and can make people miss as he runs for first downs. Romo is the best of the league's new starting QBs (guys with less than a full year’s worth of starting experience). He sees the field extremely well, finds his second, third or fourth options without trouble, and delivers the ball on a frozen rope. Even though Romo didn’t have a great completion percentage in this game, it wasn’t his fault. He was continually trying to stretch the field and not settling for the dink-and-dunk routes. Most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over once while his defense forced five turnovers. But Dallas isn’t getting enough from their running game, barely three yards per carry in this game before Marion Barber’s late 40-yard touchdown scamper.

Atlanta Falcons: Roddy White made a nice catch early to move the chains. Then he caught a nice deep ball down the sideline. Then he caught a deep crossing route, converting on third and long. At least one of Joey Harrington’s receivers is stepping up. But what about Michael Jenkins? His drop last week led to a Vikings touchdown, and his holding penalty on Sunday snuffed out a promising drive for a scoreless team. Joe Horn? Three catches for 48 yards in two games. Atlanta has a boatload of free-agent dollars and high draft picks invested in their receiving corps, but they simply aren’t living up to expectations. Just as importantly, can Harrington avoid the horrific decision-making that's plagued his career? Ten points in two games combined, and seven sacks taken today says "No". Passrusher John Abraham and run stuffer Grady Jackson, when healthy, make this defensive line a strong one.

[drugstuntman]

(+10.8 Units) Road Underdogs of greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown (-3.5 to –6.5) have won at a 24-12 mark for 66.7% over the last 10 seasons.

I started using this last year and I was astonished how good it was doing....the plays always look like the worst bets on the board, but with moneylines from +160 to +285 - you can hit 40% and still do well

[Spearit]

Thanx Drugstuntman for the info! Very Interesting stat.
Curious of how it is 10 years and 24-12. Thought there would be quite a larger amount of games in that situation. Liking the ML play for the situation- Keep us posted!
Reminds us what Vegas is doing to chalk players!

[Chado1]

Thanx Drugstuntman for the info! Very Interesting stat.
Curious of how it is 10 years and 24-12. Thought there would be quite a larger amount of games in that situation. Liking the ML play for the situation- Keep us posted!
Reminds us what Vegas is doing to chalk players!

I was thinking the same myself...wouldnt be for 10 years with only 26 games involved in situations like this.....

[GrandPa]

I was thinking the same myself...wouldnt be for 10 years with only 26 games involved in situations like this.....

There appears to be 4 such situations this weekend alone.

[frankb03]

(+10.8 Units) Road Underdogs of greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown (-3.5 to –6.5) have won at a 24-12 mark for 66.7% over the last 10 seasons.

Something is not right. Last year alone 3.5 to 6.5 road dogs were 31-22 ATS. In 2005 they were 23-29 ATS.

[Chado1]

Something is not right. Last year alone 3.5 to 6.5 road dogs were 31-22 ATS. In 2005 they were 23-29 ATS.

drugstuntman may have been smoking a little bit too much...

[frankb03]

Something is not right. Last year alone 3.5 to 6.5 road dogs were 31-22 ATS. In 2005 they were 23-29 ATS.

These same road dogs are 2-5 this season.

With only 36 plays in ten years there has to be additional parameters.