Tweet
GrandPa's Week 1 CFB 08/30-09/03
Well, love it or not, the season is upon us. Everyone is 0-0 SU and ATS, cappers and teams. Let the excuses begin!
Alot of the big guns are taking LSU in the opener, and I am laying off of it, as I don't see the obviousness of it, apparently. I would actually lean towards Miss St +18, if I had to play, but will stay on the sidelines for this.
Some highly respected minds are on Iowa St -3 tonight as well, but it seems wacky to me, I like Kent ST +3
UL-Monroe +3 Should have played it earlier at 3.5 or 4, but don't think it'll matter. Tulsa has to rebound from Kragthorpe defection, and although the Golden Hurricane have been a solid road play, the thoughts here are on Monroe. All starters return on offense for Monroe, I think Monroe wins outright
Navy -20 Middies are bowl team, Owls blow. Don't think they have any problem lighting 'em up here. Plus I have inside info from my sources at the Pentagon, that the boys will be deployed to Iraq if they don't cover.
USC -46 It's almost 7 TDs, but why worry? This is about as big a mismatch you can have and still have a line up. Some are already declaring the Trojans the greatest college team ever, and they have yet to play a single game. Vandals will be watching the clock here, trying to make time move faster. LA's fine but it ain't home....I am I said
Texas -39 Shoulda got this early at 37, but I have a really hard time backing the hated 'horns, if you recall when I took them on ML v USC in Vince Young Rose Bowl. It's all about cashing the ticket at the window, and UT traditionally slaps their Game 1 cupcake around mercilessly. Mack Brown wants to develop a 2nd team QB, just in case the team is too reliant on Colt McCoy, and has said he will definitely play the 1H. So a better play might be TEXAS 1H -21.5. If you play both 1H and game, the worst you can do is 1-1, IMO.
More on Texas....regarding opening game results:
2006 Opponent North Texas W 56-7
2005................. UL-Lafayette W 60-3
2004 ................. North Texas W 65-0
2003 .................New Mexico St 66-7
2002 ................North Texas W 27-0 ( This is the kind of game that worries me)
2001 .................New Mexico St W 41-7
2000..................UL-Lafayette W 52-10
1999 ..................NC State L 20-23
1998 ..................New Mexico St W 66-36
1997 .................Rutgers.........W 48-14
1996 .................Missouri........W 40-10
[email protected] 38-17
Don't have ATS info, but obviously the NCSt loss was a loser, and 2002 was a loser probably. But the rest are the reason for the play. Opening day v weak opponent should be blowout. Line of course has been adjusted with this knowledge, but it all depends upon the play of UT backups, most of whom would start for Ark St.
Cal -6 Atonement for last year's opener, which ruined Cal's lofty aspirations. This year Tennessee's Ainge comes in with a F'ed finger, and Bears want to do damage.
Ore -16 Houston must adjust to life after Kolb, and Eugene is not the best place to start out. A 4-yr starter, Kolb also benefitted by being in Coach Art Briles' offense in HS, so a drop-off at QB is only natural and expected.
Keeping it light in Week 1, and theoretically, in every week, but with so many lined games, and the staggered start times, its easy to get in a pattern of poor discipline and money management, only increasing the man's/house edge. Also, a little top-heavy (on the favorites), and will try to correct that.
Other leans ( But no budget to get wild with):
South Carolina -29
Baylor +21
FSU -1.1
UCF +8.5
Ore St -6.5
Syracuse +3.5
Wyoming +4
Mich St -19
Under 46.5 UNLV.Utah St
Under 44 Army/Akron
Under 48/UCLA/Stanford
Iowa -11
Va Tech -27
Nebraska -21.5
Okla St +7
GL all, and of course opinions, differing and like, are encouraged, welcomed, and invited!
Alot of the big guns are taking LSU in the opener, and I am laying off of it, as I don't see the obviousness of it, apparently. I would actually lean towards Miss St +18, if I had to play, but will stay on the sidelines for this.
Some highly respected minds are on Iowa St -3 tonight as well, but it seems wacky to me, I like Kent ST +3
UL-Monroe +3 Should have played it earlier at 3.5 or 4, but don't think it'll matter. Tulsa has to rebound from Kragthorpe defection, and although the Golden Hurricane have been a solid road play, the thoughts here are on Monroe. All starters return on offense for Monroe, I think Monroe wins outright
Navy -20 Middies are bowl team, Owls blow. Don't think they have any problem lighting 'em up here. Plus I have inside info from my sources at the Pentagon, that the boys will be deployed to Iraq if they don't cover.
USC -46 It's almost 7 TDs, but why worry? This is about as big a mismatch you can have and still have a line up. Some are already declaring the Trojans the greatest college team ever, and they have yet to play a single game. Vandals will be watching the clock here, trying to make time move faster. LA's fine but it ain't home....I am I said
Texas -39 Shoulda got this early at 37, but I have a really hard time backing the hated 'horns, if you recall when I took them on ML v USC in Vince Young Rose Bowl. It's all about cashing the ticket at the window, and UT traditionally slaps their Game 1 cupcake around mercilessly. Mack Brown wants to develop a 2nd team QB, just in case the team is too reliant on Colt McCoy, and has said he will definitely play the 1H. So a better play might be TEXAS 1H -21.5. If you play both 1H and game, the worst you can do is 1-1, IMO.
More on Texas....regarding opening game results:
2006 Opponent North Texas W 56-7
2005................. UL-Lafayette W 60-3
2004 ................. North Texas W 65-0
2003 .................New Mexico St 66-7
2002 ................North Texas W 27-0 ( This is the kind of game that worries me)
2001 .................New Mexico St W 41-7
2000..................UL-Lafayette W 52-10
1999 ..................NC State L 20-23
1998 ..................New Mexico St W 66-36
1997 .................Rutgers.........W 48-14
1996 .................Missouri........W 40-10
[email protected] 38-17
Don't have ATS info, but obviously the NCSt loss was a loser, and 2002 was a loser probably. But the rest are the reason for the play. Opening day v weak opponent should be blowout. Line of course has been adjusted with this knowledge, but it all depends upon the play of UT backups, most of whom would start for Ark St.
Cal -6 Atonement for last year's opener, which ruined Cal's lofty aspirations. This year Tennessee's Ainge comes in with a F'ed finger, and Bears want to do damage.
Ore -16 Houston must adjust to life after Kolb, and Eugene is not the best place to start out. A 4-yr starter, Kolb also benefitted by being in Coach Art Briles' offense in HS, so a drop-off at QB is only natural and expected.
Keeping it light in Week 1, and theoretically, in every week, but with so many lined games, and the staggered start times, its easy to get in a pattern of poor discipline and money management, only increasing the man's/house edge. Also, a little top-heavy (on the favorites), and will try to correct that.
Other leans ( But no budget to get wild with):
South Carolina -29
Baylor +21
FSU -1.1
UCF +8.5
Ore St -6.5
Syracuse +3.5
Wyoming +4
Mich St -19
Under 46.5 UNLV.Utah St
Under 44 Army/Akron
Under 48/UCLA/Stanford
Iowa -11
Va Tech -27
Nebraska -21.5
Okla St +7
GL all, and of course opinions, differing and like, are encouraged, welcomed, and invited!
NFL
Comment