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I wrote a piece on Friday discouraging MLB bettors from following every trend possible when trying to play totals.
Then I remembered why people actually read *********** in the first place: it’s home to the most meaningful betting info you’ll find in the internet.
Just because oddsmakers don’t overreact to teams’ trends when setting totals doesn’t mean bettors aren’t interested in them, right? In that mindset, here are the top over and under teams in baseball since the All-Star break, through Friday’s games.
Top 5 second-half over bets
1. Cincinnati Reds (70 percent of second-half games, not including pushes, have played over)
Reds games since the break have only averaged 9.5 runs per game, middle-of-the-road numbers for MLB. Eight of the 14 Cincinnati contests playing over did so by only two runs or less, five by only half a run.
2. Atlanta Braves (67.7%)
Atlanta’s offense has scored 6.4 runs per game since the break, second-most in the NL and third in MLB. The addition of Mark Teixeira can only help in this regard, especially if the added protection in the lineup wakes up Andruw Jones’ sleeping bat.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (63.2%)
The Phillies own the NL’s most productive second-half offense, more than enough to make up for its improved pitching for over bettors. The loss of Chase Utley is huge for the offense, but Pat Burrell’s re-awakening has made up for it so far.
T4. Los Angeles Angels (61.1%)
L.A.’s homerless streak through July got a lot of attention and might have convinced bettors that the Angels’ offense as a whole had ground to a halt. Not so, say the 7.3 runs per game the team has posted over their last nine games, seven of which have played over.
T4. Pittsburgh Pirates (61.1%)
We’ll blame the Bucs' pitching for this one. Pittsburgh has scored more than five runs only four times in 19 second-half games. Opposing teams, however, have topped the oddsmakers’ total by themselves five times over the same span.
Top 5 second-half under bets
1. Minnesota Twins (72.2 percent of second-half games, not including pushes, have played under)
Meet the coldest offense in MLB. The Twins are scoring only 3.4 runs per game in the second half, have topped out at seven runs, and have been held to four of fewer runs 15 times in 20 games. In the meantime, Minny’s pitchers continue to live up to their billing.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (71.4%)
Surprise! The Jays have the stingiest pitching staff in baseball in the second half, with opposing teams scoring only 3.3 runs per game since the break. The youngsters in the rotation have been great, though the pending return of A.J. Burnett will result in one of them being demoted.
3. Colorado Rockies (64.7%)
The Rockies own the NL’s stingiest staff, letting opponents score only 3.7 runs per game in the second half. The offense has slowed in Colorado, meaning Rockies games have played over the total only six times in 20 opportunities.
4. Oakland A’s (63.6%)
As noted in the Friday piece, the Oakland pitching staff has lost some of its luster. If the A’s ever learn to put some runs on the board, look out! Their lineup, however, isn’t promising for over bettors. The under remains the safe play no matter how much the rotation deteriorates.
5. Washington Nationals (63.2%)
The average Washington game involves only 8.4 runs crossing the plate so far this half. That’s kept the Nats below their already-low totals more often than not. The offense has shown signs of life recently, though, scoring six or more runs in six of its last nine games.
Then I remembered why people actually read *********** in the first place: it’s home to the most meaningful betting info you’ll find in the internet.
Just because oddsmakers don’t overreact to teams’ trends when setting totals doesn’t mean bettors aren’t interested in them, right? In that mindset, here are the top over and under teams in baseball since the All-Star break, through Friday’s games.
Top 5 second-half over bets
1. Cincinnati Reds (70 percent of second-half games, not including pushes, have played over)
Reds games since the break have only averaged 9.5 runs per game, middle-of-the-road numbers for MLB. Eight of the 14 Cincinnati contests playing over did so by only two runs or less, five by only half a run.
2. Atlanta Braves (67.7%)
Atlanta’s offense has scored 6.4 runs per game since the break, second-most in the NL and third in MLB. The addition of Mark Teixeira can only help in this regard, especially if the added protection in the lineup wakes up Andruw Jones’ sleeping bat.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (63.2%)
The Phillies own the NL’s most productive second-half offense, more than enough to make up for its improved pitching for over bettors. The loss of Chase Utley is huge for the offense, but Pat Burrell’s re-awakening has made up for it so far.
T4. Los Angeles Angels (61.1%)
L.A.’s homerless streak through July got a lot of attention and might have convinced bettors that the Angels’ offense as a whole had ground to a halt. Not so, say the 7.3 runs per game the team has posted over their last nine games, seven of which have played over.
T4. Pittsburgh Pirates (61.1%)
We’ll blame the Bucs' pitching for this one. Pittsburgh has scored more than five runs only four times in 19 second-half games. Opposing teams, however, have topped the oddsmakers’ total by themselves five times over the same span.
Top 5 second-half under bets
1. Minnesota Twins (72.2 percent of second-half games, not including pushes, have played under)
Meet the coldest offense in MLB. The Twins are scoring only 3.4 runs per game in the second half, have topped out at seven runs, and have been held to four of fewer runs 15 times in 20 games. In the meantime, Minny’s pitchers continue to live up to their billing.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (71.4%)
Surprise! The Jays have the stingiest pitching staff in baseball in the second half, with opposing teams scoring only 3.3 runs per game since the break. The youngsters in the rotation have been great, though the pending return of A.J. Burnett will result in one of them being demoted.
3. Colorado Rockies (64.7%)
The Rockies own the NL’s stingiest staff, letting opponents score only 3.7 runs per game in the second half. The offense has slowed in Colorado, meaning Rockies games have played over the total only six times in 20 opportunities.
4. Oakland A’s (63.6%)
As noted in the Friday piece, the Oakland pitching staff has lost some of its luster. If the A’s ever learn to put some runs on the board, look out! Their lineup, however, isn’t promising for over bettors. The under remains the safe play no matter how much the rotation deteriorates.
5. Washington Nationals (63.2%)
The average Washington game involves only 8.4 runs crossing the plate so far this half. That’s kept the Nats below their already-low totals more often than not. The offense has shown signs of life recently, though, scoring six or more runs in six of its last nine games.
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