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Beating a Dead Horse

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  • Beating a Dead Horse

    I have taken some abuse, here and in other forums , for my blind backing of Johan Santana ( or Twins) in 2nd half games ( post All-Star break). My skin is *****, so I am unconcerned, but want to try again to point out that which is good , free, and easy, much like our favorite girls of today and yesterday.

    He is 40-4 since 2003 ( after the break), but that of course is not the team record. And of course, it is far better at home than away.

    Most are run off by the exorbitant prices you have to pay to back him, as this is no longer a secret. But can you really get rich going the other way, for that occasional hit when the bully fails, or the offense slumbers, or worse, he is off?

    At 40-4, if all the games were Santana -1000, you would be close enough to even. But they are usually between 135 and 350, and averaging around 230, if I were to guess conservatively, on the high end. You need not be a MIT math wizard to deduce that betting JS every time would produce positive units ( read: profits), though each loss would hurt more than a typical one.


    Bottom line is:

    I bet JS at -250 in the first game out of the chute ( AS Break) and am 1-0 +1 Unit.

    Today he is -190, and I again will lay the -190 to get a chance at the green. Some will balk entirely, some will lay the RL to save Juice ( and get burned occasionally) and some will get aboard.

    The price will only rise as the season rolls on, so I offer that there is FREE MONEY to be made, by BLINDLY backing Santana, especially at home, for the rest of the season.

    I will track it here, and climb aboard whenever you aren't scared

    Minn -190 1 Unit
    You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

  • #2
    2 more plays:

    Balt/Sea Under 8
    Fla/StL Over 9.5


    Lock-n-load
    You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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    • #3
      BOL Grandpa, you bet what you like and dont worry what others think
      Questions, comments, complaints:
      [email protected]

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      • #4
        It's Your Right To Do What You Feel Is Right, Good Luck At Whatever You Do. Just Please Yourself In Life.
        jt4545


        Fat Tuesday's - Home

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        • #5
          GP- Good Luck on the ride. I have em in a parlay with Seattle.
          "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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          • #6
            Last year in that silly forum that starts with a "C", I would continually point these things out every 5th day, and the argument would always center around value. And while the guy was ripping off 10 or 11 wins in a row, I would always hear back that " laying -250 is not good value." I countered with "receiving +230 is not good value" and over time proved it. The guy didn't lose a home game after the break at all. What would the right price be, based upon that fact, those odds? Minus 1200 seems about right.

            Beating a dead horse.....

            It may sound as if I am bitter or desperate, when in reality I am just trying to help.
            You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by GrandPa
              2 more plays:

              Balt/Sea Under 8
              Fla/StL Over 9.5


              Lock-n-load
              Bal/Sea Under a no-play since Bedard is scratched for Cabrera. Probably still an under game, but it was "listed pitchers"

              Stl scores 6 in first two innings, and it looks like it may come up short. Kind of the opposite of the Atl/Cin total today, 1-0 in the 8th, and goes over with a 3-run 15th.
              You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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              • #8
                Today, going to the well, in the dark, again:

                Min -141

                YTD in betting Santana after the break 1-1, -0.9 Units
                You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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                • #9
                  gl today grandpa---kapt


                  Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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                  • #10
                    Good Luck Gp

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                    • #11
                      BOL tonite GrandPa got Minn. in a parlay.
                      Records listed in members records forum.

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                      • #12
                        y-GOOD LUCK TONIGHT YOUNG SKYWALKER !!
                        __________________
                        DON'T YOU EAT THE YELLOW SNOW !! PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !!

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