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Northcoast College Selections
NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* FLORIDA ST over Maryland - We used Florida St as our Sept 5* LY and FSU
won convincingly 37-10 with a 435-298 yd edge. “The Fridge” has done an
incredible job turning the Terp program around but has yet to figure out
how to beat Florida St. In 2001, Maryland stood 7-0 and became the first
ACC team to get less than DD’s (+8) in Tallahassee since the Noles joined
the conf in ‘92. FSU pounded the Terps 52-31. LY FSU led 30-0 at the half.
Chris Rix has 8 TD’s in two games vs the Maryland D. Maryland has snuck up
on some teams the last few years, but FSU will be very focused for this as
the Terps are the only team besides FSU to win an outright ACC Title since
FSU joined the league. The Terps are coming off a very disappointing upset
loss to N Illinois, 20-13. MD was without starting RB Bruce Perry LW and
his replacement Josh Allen rushed for 67 yds (3.4) while QB Scott McBrien
threw for 110 yds (50%). Perry and standout WR/KR/PR Steve Suter are both
expected to practice this week (call the Northcoast Full Service Line for
inj updates). The Seminoles returned to Kenan Stadium LW to beat UNC 37-0
as a 3* Late Phone Selection for us. PS#1 Lorenzo Booker rushed for 87 yds
and Greg Jones looked good returning from injury. Will we use the Seminoles
as our Top Weekly Late Phone for a second straight year vs the Terps?
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 40 Maryland 10
3* TENNESSEE over Marshall - Marshall is coming off a tune-up game vs IAA
Hofstra in which QB Stan Hill hit for 347 yds (68%), but also threw 3 int
and lost 2 fumbles. Now Hill must face UT’s #10 rated defense in front of
105,000+. Their O-line has just 2 starters back and should struggle with
the noise. Marshall is 0-4 SU & ATS vs the BCS schools the L/3Y and that
was WITH Leftwich at QB (lost to Florida by 35). UT is coming off a
dominating 24-6 win over Fresno St. Their defense held FSU to 117 total yds
(see Backdoor Covers). They rushed for 274 yds (6.2) in a return to old
school UT FB. The Vols have a bye next week before playing Florida so they
should use this game to get both sides of the ball in tune they won’t
overlook a Marshall team that has won 5 straight bowl games. In Phil
Fulmer’s early years he was known in some circles as “Phil Kills” for his
demolition of opp’s especially at home and is probably trying to get his
team to regain its swagger with blowouts helping the cause. Marshall is 0-6
as an AD the L/4Y and is a weaker team than the one UT dismantled LW.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 45 Marshall 10
3* WASHINGTON over Indiana - The Huskies are off a 28-9 opening game loss
vs LY’s National Champs, a 2* Winner for us on these pages. Washington is
6-14 ATS S/’97 off of a SU loss. While LY’s loss to a Big 10 power
(Michigan) in the opener was demoralizing, this year’s nationally televised
whipping may motivate the Dawgs. They are 7-3 ATS in home openers. Indiana
is 6-14 as an AD. Travel could be a consideration here as well as Indiana
goes from the East Coast to the West Coast in 7 days. UW is just 6-13-1 ATS
L/12Y as a HF but should be stronger in that role under OC Keith
Gilbertson. Husky QB Cody Pickett (4458 yards, a Pac 10 record LY) faces a
secondary that has only one player taller than 5-11 on their two deep and
has finished #96, #95, and #117 the L/3Y in our pass D rankings. Three
projected secondary starters didn’t finish LW’s game for the Hoosiers in FS
Joe Gonzalez (knee), SS Herana-Daze Jones (neck) & CB Damien Jones
(academics) is out for the season. Both Gonzalez & Jones are ? for this
week. IU allowed UConn to rush for 201 yds. The Dawgs’ running game was
nonexistent vs the Bucks (7 total yds) but has a chance to get healthy at
the Hoosiers’ expense. For Indy, ND transfer QB Matt LoVecchio had just 35
yds until mid-3Q LW and finished hitting for 211 yds (45%). The Hoosiers
piled up 205 of their 321 total yds in the game’s final 16:00. UW is still
our pick to win the Pac 10 and regains confidence here. FORECAST:
WASHINGTON 49 Indiana 10
NCAA OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* Oklahoma over ALABAMA - We used Alabama +12 as our Underdog Play of the
Week on these pages LY and they didn’t disappoint despite a very misleading
37-27 final (see Past History). LY’s meeting was the first between these 2
powers that have combined for 13 National Titles since ‘70 & Bama held OU
to -23 yds rushing. Keep in mind that OU went on to rush for 191 ypg (4.5)
LY. Bama is 0-2 ATS as a HD the L/3Y. OU is surprisingly just 2-6 ATS & 3-5
SU as an AF of 15 or less since ‘98. New Bama HC Mike Shula takes on the
first big test of his career here vs one of the NCAA’s best coaches &
teams. OU QB Jason White (ACL inj vs Bama LY) hit for 248 yds (66%) with 3
TD’s in the opener. OU rushed for just 105 yds (3.3) vs N Texas. Bama has
been in turmoil with Shula being their 4th HC in 42 months. QB Brodie
Croyle is in his 3rd offensive system in less than a year. Bama started out
slow LW vs S Florida trailing 17-7 in the 2Q. LY Bama could’ve been the
better team, but still lost, and TY there is no doubt OU is superior.
FORECAST: Oklahoma 27 ALABAMA 10
2* NEBRASKA over Utah St - Utah St is coming off a loss to instate rival
Utah 40-20 as a 20 pt AD. First year starting QB Travis Cox threw for 280
yds (46%) with a 1-1 ratio. USU is 1-5 ATS vs the Big 12 S/’96 and 4-16 ATS
their L/20 as a DD dog. Nebraska came through as a 3* Late Phone Play
beating 24th ranked Oklahoma St. The Blackshirts held the potent Cowboy
offense to under 200 yards. This is a sandwich spot for the Huskers as they
are off a big conf game with Penn St on deck. NU is just 3-7 ATS as a 30+
fav vs non-conf foes under HC Frank Solich. The Aggies failed to cover as a
30’ pt AD LY losing 44-13. This is a much stronger Nebraska team which
needs to regain their swagger and we continue to play on the Huskers.
FORECAST: NEBRASKA 48 Utah St 6
2* OKLAHOMA ST over Wyoming - Joe Glenn got his first win as a IA HC vs
Montana St LW, 21-10. These two last met in 1995 and WY won 45-25 as 10 pt
fav’s (3* Winner on these pages). That was WY’s only SU & ATS win ever vs
Okla St. WY has only played on art turf 5 times S/’98 and lost ATS each
time. WY is 7-4 ATS their L/11 vs the Big 12. LW we went against OSU with
Nebraska which was a 2* Winner for us on these pages & a 3* Late Phone
Winner. OSU’s offense is potent with QB Josh Fields and WR Rashaun Woods
and after being shutdown by the Blackshirts LW (just 11 FD’s, 183 yds) they
will enjoy facing our #116 rated defense. They only have SW MO St on deck
but maybe in a letdown spot as all August they talked about how HUGE LW’s
game vs Nebraska was (biggest opener in school history). WY has lost 6
straight ATS on the road vs BCS teams. OSU HC Les Miles has won his last 4
as a fav covering imposts of 28 and 23 LY so he takes care of business vs
this class. Look for OSU’s offense to pour it on after being stifled LW vs
our #10 rated defense. FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 49 Wyoming 13
NCAA OTHER GAMES:
S Miss at UAB - The Golden Eagles are 3-0 SU but only 0-2-1 ATS in this
series and the games have been decided by a total of just 13 pts. In LY’s
meeting SM was without star RB Derrick Nix and backup James Walley had 100
yds rushing as SM won 20-13 as a 7 pt AF. LW SM lost 34-2 at Cal, their
lowest point total since being shut out by Tennessee in 1995. UAB beat
Baylor 24-19 as QB Darrell Hackney hit 238 yds (45%) with a 50 yd TD pass
with just :40 remaining despite suffering a knee injury on the previous
series. RB Bo Moncur added 136 yds (6.5) and a TD in his first career game.
S Miss is traveling back from California, having to play on a short week
but always plays well in Alabama where many of their recruits are from.
This is the Thursday Night espn2 game. There is also an NFL game on ABC.
Call Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline on Thursday after 5:00 ET
1-900-903-9467 and get the TV game he selects for just $9! Phil’s Marquee
Private Play Hotline Plays are 23-4 85% so far this year!
Oregon St 31 FRESNO ST 30 - The home team is 9-1 ATS in this series and the
fav 7-3 ATS. In the last meeting here in 2000, OSU came in as SI’s
Preseason #1 team and FSU simply embarrassed the Beavers 44-24 as a 3’ pt
HD, their only time as a HD in this series. In that game FSU outgained them
458-323 as our PPH Sunday Night ESPN Play Winner. LY OSU rolled 59-19 as a
11’ pt HF as RB Steven Jackson ran for 227 yds with 2 TD’s, but while QB
Derek Anderson was only 9 of 20. The Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their L/14 vs
Pac 10 foes. Since ‘99 OSU is 2-7 ATS as an AF but 9-3 ATS as an AD. FSU is
very dangerous as a HD going 7-0 ATS their L/7 with SIX outright upsets
covering by 21.6 ppg!! FSU QB Paul Pinegar missed LW and the team generated
just 4 FD’s at Tennessee. This is the Friday Night ESPN game. Phil’s
Marquee Private Play Hotline Plays are 23-4 85% so far this year and you
can get tonight’s Friday Night ESPN play for just $9 at 1-900-903-9467
after 5:00 ET on Friday.
PENN ST 24 Boston College 17 - These two Eastern powers met on a yearly
basis from ‘81-’92 with PSU holding the all-time edge in the series 19-2 SU
but BC has a 7-3 ATS edge the L/10. In their last meeting in 1992 the
Eagles, under the direction of Tom Coughlin, pulled the 35-32 upset as 10
pt dogs in Happy Valley. PSU is 27-5 SU vs Big East foes S/‘90 but is 2-6
ATS the L/8 including LW’s 23-10 SU win (but ATS loss) vs Temple. BC is
2-12 in road openers S/‘89. PSU is 17-12 ATS as a HF S/‘97. PSU lost 2,000
yd rusher Larry Johnson and Paterno started backup QB Mike Robinson at TB
vs Temple LW. Robinson combined with true frosh Austin Scott (PS#16) to
rush for 153 yds. Lions’ QB Zack Mills hit for a disappointing 79 yds (35%)
with 0 yds passing after halftime. PSU’s rebuilt DL (replaced three #1 & #2
DC’s) allowed 162 yds rushing (4.1) to the Owls. PSU also has a rebuilt OL
in which all 5 players got their 1st collegiate starts and takes on BC’s
D-line which we rate 16th best. BC returns 11 starters overall but new QB
Quinton Porter is making his first road start in front of 100,000+. Porter
hit for 243 yds (56.4%) & the team committed 3 TO’s in LW’s misleading loss
to Wake Forest. BC outFD’d the Deacons 28-15 & outgained them 448-316. BC
soph RB Derrick Knight rushed for 144 yds (4.8). BC is 3-8 ATS the L/3Y as
an AD. PSU has a big game vs Nebraska on deck while BC has UConn.
OHIO ST 41 San Diego St 3 - SDST lost to OSU 27-12 in ‘01 (first ever
meeting) but covered as 22’ pt road dogs and actually had a 12-6 halftime
lead. The Aztecs are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS the L/10 road openers. They are only
5-13 ATS in their L/18 Sept non-conf games. SDST is a nice 9-1 ATS the L/4Y
as DD AD’s. OSU is just 3-7 ATS as 20+ fav’s but is 8-1 ATS the L/2Y at
home under Jim Tressel. This is a sandwich for OSU as they are off a 28-9
win vs Washington with NCSt on deck. This is a long flight for SDST and
they must play in Ohio’s humidity. OSU has major advantages in the trenches
as their O-line weighs an avg of 315 lbs vs the Aztecs 261 lb avg D-line
with just 1 starter back. SDST’s OL has 4 starters back but allowed 43
sacks LY and OSU’s has our #1 rated D-line. San Diego St is off a narrow
19-9 victory over IAA Eastern Washington, and things will get a lot tougher
as they face the Buckeyes. Ohio St outrushed Washington 142-7, and look for
that gap to widen this week even in a sandwich. LW SDST star QB Adam Hall
hit just 6 of 14 playing with a severe ankle sprain and will likely not
play here leaving the QB job to Illinois transfer Matt Dlugolecki (PS#56)
who hit 11 of 19 for 94 yards.
MICHIGAN 44 Houston 17 - Houston is 4-13 ATS S/’97 as a DD AD and 3-8 ATS
their L/11 on the fake stuff. UH is 3-0 ATS in their L/3 vs BCS foes while
being at least a 31 pt dog in each. UH is breaking in new schemes under new
HC Art Briles returning just 11 starters but LW had 414 yards after 3Q
despite starting true frosh QB Kevin Kolb (PS#52, played in Briles’ system
in HS). Kolb finished with 246 yds through the air (77%) and added 2
rushing TD’s. Michigan had 615 yards LW vs CM. RB Chris Perry had a UM
record 232 yds (10.5) rushing. The Cougars visited the Big House twice in
the 90’s getting hammered 61-7 (+18) in ‘92 and 42-21 (+35) in ‘93. The
Cougar offensive backfield is comprised of 3 underclassmen and they face a
fierce Top 10 Michigan defense. QB John Navarre should pad his numbers
against an outfit that returns just 5 defensive starters and has finished
just #93 and #103 the L/2Y in our pass defense rankings. Returning for this
game will be UM AA DB Marlin Jackson who was suspended for the opener.
Since ‘80 UM is 3-5 ATS the week before ND but did cover their last two.
WISCONSIN 44 Akron 17 - UW is 11-0 SU vs the MAC but just a 6-5 ATS
including LY’s near-upset at the hands of N Illinois (24-21, NI had 455-275
yd edge). UW HC Barry Alvarez has vowed to take back the huge home field
advantage that the Badgers used to enjoy at Camp Randall Stadium as they
are just 4-12 ATS as a HF the L/3Y. The Badgers are 1-9 ATS as a fav of 10
or more S/‘99. This is the debut of the new FieldTurf surface. WR Lee Evans
(missed LY) scored 2 TD’s LW & combined with RB Anthony Davis (167 yds vs
WV) to help the Badgers win our first 4* Top Weekly College Late Phone Play
of the season, 24-17. The defense returns 9 starters. For this game UW’s
defensive front will be a bit short handed as PS#5LB Darius Jones (susp) &
DE Erasmus James is ? after sitting out LW (inj). AU is 1-4 ATS vs Big 10
foes being outscored on avg 45-16. Akron is coming off a last second 41-38
loss in a Thursday game vs arch-rival Kent St. Our College Totals Club
called for the Akron/KSU game to go Over 58 which was an easy 3* Winner.
The Akron offense returns 11 starters but will face a much bigger challenge
than Kent as the Flashes allowed QB Charlie Frye to pass for 407 yds. We
rate their defense with just 6 starters back at #113 & they allowed KSU QB
Joshua Cribbs to account for 397 total yds. Wisky only has UNLV on deck and
in their ‘98 & ‘99 Rose Bowl years they won their non-conf games by an avg
of 45 ppg at home.
IOWA 41 Buffalo 3 - UI is 10-0 ATS as DD fav’s under Kirk Ferentz. The
Hawks are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs the MAC S/‘98 including LW’s 21-3 win over
Miami (OH) as a 10’ pt HF. The Bulls are coming off a loss at Rutgers 24-10
as a 12’ pt AD. Bulls’ QB Randall Secky threw for just 58 yds (33%). Iowa
has their bitter rivals on deck (lost 5 in a row SU vs Iowa St). New UI QB
Nathan Chandler had 129 yds (63%) and RB Fred Russell ran for 167 (7.6) yds
LW despite 4 new starters on the OL. Iowa is 10-3 ATS as a HF the L/3Y and
LY won their home games by an avg of 42-17 including Big 10 foes.
NC State 31 WAKE FOREST 20 - Heisman hopeful QB Philip Rivers has had a
couple of pedestrian games against WF throwing for 180 in 2001 and 223 LY.
LY’s game was statistically dead even everywhere but the scoreboard (see
Past History). The home team is 6-1 ATS. Wake is 9-4-2 ATS as a dog under
Grobe, including LW’s outright win vs BC. LW in his 1st career start, QB
Cory Randolph threw for 149 yds (56.5%) with a 2-2 ratio. Willie Idlette
rushed for 80 yds on 3 carries and Cornelius Birgs rushed for 65 (3.4).
Wake has just 10 starters back and look to be in for a rebuilding year. The
Wolfpack are a borderline National Title contender (a full fledged one if
they win next week at Ohio St). LW WR Tramain Hall made his much
anticipated debut for the Pack and had 2 TD’s. The situation favors Wake
although the Deacons are off a misleading win over BC LW. Wake is a
dangerous dog however and their option can be tough to prep for even with
the Ohio St distraction but the talent is on NCSt’s side and WF is not as
strong as LY’s contingent.
Mississippi 28 MEMPHIS 24 - The Rebels are 14-4-1 SU &12-6 ATS in this
series dating back to ‘80. In LY’s meeting Memphis was up 7-0 early but
they went on to lose 38-16 as an 8’ pt AD. The Tigers are 1-17 SU but 11-7
ATS vs SEC foes S/’95. Memphis is 9-4 ATS as a HD. Memphis avg 33 ppg at
home LY but just 17.5 ppg on the road. Despite just 4 returning starters on
offense, they have veteran QB Danny Wimprine (3 yr st’r) and he set several
UM career records LW in the win over Tenn Tech. They return 8 starters on D
and that unit is headed up by former Miss St DC Joe Lee Dunn who is
obviously very familiar with the Mississippi offense. Ole Miss had just 297
yds vs Dunn’s MSU D LY. While the defenses and special teams are rated
about even in our rankings Ole Miss does rate a huge edge on offense at #11
(Mem #99) with Eli Manning. This is the Rebels’ 2nd straight road game, and
they barely got past Vandy LW. Manning hit for 275 yds (66.7%), but fumbled
twice and had several dropped passes. Ole Miss is 8-4-1 ATS as an AF the
L/8Y and in LY’s win had a 26-14 FD edge.
PURDUE 40 Bowling Green 13 - The Falcons are coming off an easy victory
over IAA E Kentucky, 63-13. BG QB Josh Harris led BG to a 43-42 upset at
N’western in 2001. BG is 5-0 SU & ATS vs BCS schools the L/2Y but that was
under HC Urban Meyer who left for Utah. OC Gregg Brandon has taken over. PU
is 5-2 ATS vs the MAC. Both teams run the pass happy spread offense. PU has
our #15 rated D (9 returning starters) which should contain Harris. The
Boilers have two solid QB’s which, much like the NFL Preseason, makes
Purdue attractive when up big late. PU’s special teams look to be much
improved after LY’s fiascoes which directly cost them no less than 3 games.
BG does have the edge of having a game under their belt but Tiller is
22-12-1 ATS at home. He has a large ego about his offense and should relish
showing up BG which had LY’s #1 scoring offense in the NCAA statistics and
had 63 pts LW. BG did not defeat a team with a winning record LY despite
being ranked at 8-0 and they were 0-2 ATS as an AD losing by 18 to Toledo
and 22 to S Florida.
N CAROLINA 31 Syracuse 30 - After suffering the first losing season in Paul
Pasqualoni’s 12 year tenure, the Orangemen open 2003 looking to avenge LY’s
30-22 home loss to the 3-9 Tar Heels. SU is 0-3 SU & ATS their L/3 road
openers. They are 5-9 ATS on grass. The visitor is 3-0 SU & ATS in the
series. The Tar Heels are 2-10 ATS under Bunting at home. In LY’s win, QB
Darian Durant hit 19-36 for 284 yards and they got 3 FG’s of 50+ from K Dan
Orner. We won with a 3* Late Phone Play on Florida St over UNC LW, 37-0 a
game in which Durant threw for 145 yds (58%). UNC has a large edge with a
game under their belt. They did allow 4.8 ypc rushing LY (5.6 LW) which
plays into the hands of the SU option. SU has a significant edge on special
teams. Both teams are improved and this looks like a toss-up, so take the
points.
IOWA ST 34 Ohio U 13 - Both teams struggled with IAA opponents LW. Iowa St
has a huge game vs Iowa on deck. The Cyclones all frosh backfield of QB
Austin Flynn & RB Stevie Hicks combined for 242 yds vs N Iowa LW. Hicks had
just 23 yds and was replaced by Wagner (82 yds). The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS
as a DD fav S/‘98. ISU DE Tyson Smith was seriously injured in the opener
and may be out the season. The last meeting in ‘01 featured over 1000 yards
of total offense. The late Ennis Haywood ran for 219 yards and 2 TD’s in a
31-28 win at Athens a game in which ISU had a 29-17 FD edge.
NOTRE DAME 24 Wash St 10 - The Cougars have done well on grass going 10-2
the L/3Y. QB Matt Kegel will certainly receive a tougher test this week
after facing Idaho’s weak defense LW at home (only 12 of 21 for 108 yds)
they take on our #4 rated defense on the road in a tough environment. TY’s
Cougars contingent is not as strong as LY’s Rose Bowl team. The Cougars new
HC, Bill Doba, had noted that his offensive game plan was to be more of a
ball control type, helping to keep the defense fresh. The Cougars had 339
yds rushing LW led by Jonathan Smith (160 yds, 10.0 ypc) and Chris Bruhn
(118, 13.1). ND is 8-3 ATS vs Pac 10 teams at home and Willingham was 6-1
ATS vs WSU while at Stanford. ND is 5-2 ATS their L/7 home openers, but
have a big game vs Michigan on deck and WSU has the edge of having a game
under their belt. The big matchup question for ND is an O-line with 1
starter back taking on our #13 rated D-line. While the Irish will not be
confused with Idaho, WSU’s D did hold the Vandals to 250 total yds and 44%
comp. WSU, with Jason Gesser, was pounded by Ohio St 25-7 in their road
opener LY.
MICH ST 30 Rutgers 17 - The Spartans used to be a strong HF with a 17-5
ATS mark from ‘96-2000 but are just 2-10 ATS the L/3Y. MSU has 15 starters
back and Coach Smith’s first game was a 26-21 win vs WM at home LW. WM
scored a garbage TD with just :30 left. MSU QB Jeff Smoker had 324 yds & 3
TD’s in the debut of the Smith’s spread offense. More impressively the MSU
defense allowed just 6 rushing yds. The young secondary was scorched for
333 yds passing. Rutgers figures to be much stronger TY in year 3 under HC
Schiano. LY they led Tennessee at the half on the road, but are 3-6 as an
AD the L/2Y. LW the Knights broke a 9 game losing streak by beating Buffalo
24-10. Rutgers led that game 21-0 at the half & had 410 yds. Former Iowa
signee true frosh Justice Hairston rushed for 88 yds for Rutgers. The
defense held UB QB Randall Secky to just 58 yds passing but allowed an
alarming 217 yds rushing (5.4). After the game Rutgers HC Schiano said UB
ran 50-70% new plays which may help to explain the hearty rushing numbers.
S CAROLINA 24 Virginia 23 - LY the Cavs took advantage of 7 Gamecock TO’s
(6 fmbl) to beat then-22nd ranked SC 34-21 in Charlottesville. VA has not
fared well in Columbia going 0-2 SU & ATS being outscored 79-13 (last trip
‘87). SC has their SEC opener on deck vs Georgia and has just 9 starters
back TY. SC has a talented defense and two solid CB’s to face Schaub.
However, LW vs ULL, SC was not impressive as the game was tied 7-7 until
the end of the 3Q. QB Dondrial Pinkins threw for 185 yds (only 47%) and RB
Daccus Turman rushed for just 40 yds (4.4), but you may see a different
team this week as the Holtzes like to keep things under wraps. UVA was 2-3
ATS on the road LY with one of their covers being a fortuitous backdoor vs
Fla St. The Cavs shut out Duke LW 27-0, but QB Matt Schaub (84 yds, 83%)
went down with a possible separated shoulder (call the Northcoast Full
Service Line for inj updates) and would not return. Fr Anthony Martinez
took over and threw for 76 yds. A SC upset would not be a surprise.
Auburn 37 GEORGIA TECH 13 - These 2 teams are meeting for the first time
since a 20-10 Auburn road win in ‘87. Auburn is 7-3 ATS as AF S/‘96. GT is
8-3 L/11 as HD’s. Both teams are off disappointing season opening losses.
Auburn had great expectations coming into the season with one publication
(not ours) ranking them #1 (we had them lower than anyone else at #15).
USC’s top-notch defense held them to 163 yards. We used a 3* Late Phone
Selection on BYU over GT last Thursday and BYU had a 362-243 yard edge in a
23-14 win. True frosh QB Reggie Ball beat out veteran AJ Suggs for the
start vs BYU and looked good hitting for 147 yds (63%) with an int. The key
here is GT’s injury depleted D-line which will be overwhelmed by an Auburn
rush attack that will still be among the best in the country and should
play with a vengeance. This is the wrong week for suspension and injury
depleted GT to take on a very talented Tiger team.
COLORADO 28 UCLA 24 - This is UCLA HC Karl Dorrell’s debut. LY CU met UCLA
just 1 week after getting waxed 40-3 at home by USC and the team’s
prospects looked dim. The Buffs upset the Bruins in the Rose Bowl 31-17 as
11’ pt dogs. CU outrushed UCLA 325-62. UCLA leads this series 4-1 SU & 3-2
ATS. Barnett faces 3 of his former assistants as RB Coach Bienemy & WR
Coach Embree made the move to LA when Dorrell took the job. He also fired
longtime strength coach Kreis who was promptly hired by the Bruins. CU HC
Gary Barnett was reportedly not thrilled when top UCLA signee PS#11RB
Maurice Drew switched his allegiances from the Buffs to the Bruins when
Bienemy left. The Buffs are 4-2 ATS as a HF of less than 14. New CU QB Joel
Klatt hit for 402 yds (62%) vs CSU LW and CU has the large edge of a game
under their belt and have the altitude edge as well. While their offense
was stampeding for 504 yds LW their defense was trampled for 585 yds by the
Rams. UCLA is 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS as an AD. UCLA is 8-2 ATS vs non-conf
foes. It looks like QB Matt Moore will get the nod over Drew Olson at QB
for the Bruins. Moore did start one game LY in a home win against Stanford.
The Buffs were impressive LW and have the large situational edge.
OREGON 37 Nevada 16 - UO has won the three meetings in Eugene by an avg of
51-16. The Pack is in a good spot here as they are off of a IAA foe with a
bye on deck. UN has struggled vs BCS foes losing each of their L/5 SU (2-3
ATS) by a combined score of 215-43. Oregon returns 14 starters and the Pack
17. While Nevada has 4 OL’s back and RB Chance Kretschmer (170 yds LW) they
have a young QB making his first road start in one of the toughest
stadiums, noise-wise, in the country. LW Oregon used 2 QB’s in its 42-34
win and racked up 570 total yards of offense. Nevada narrowly pulled out a
win over Southern Utah 24-23. Andy Heiser hit for 110 yds (58%) and starter
Jeff Rowe hit for 85 yds (62%). Call a Northcoast Full Service Line to
check on the status of UO DT Haloti Ngata who was injured LW.
Missouri 34 BALL ST 17 - LW BSU opened their season with a 31-7 win over
IAA Indiana St. QB Andy Roesch threw for 204 yds (50%). BSU is 0-5 SU & ATS
vs the Big 12 teams S/’92 and 2-8 ATS as a HD S/’99 but played in front of
a big crowd under the lights LW. LY BSU fmbl’d the game away constantly
giving Missouri (a 4* Small College Winner) the short field. The Cardinals
were outgained 437-314 and were destroyed on the scoreboard 41-6 as a 14 pt
AD. MU HC Gary Pinkel is very familiar with the MAC but as the HC of the
Tigers he’s just 1-2 SU & ATS with 2 outright upset losses to BG. MU is
coming off a 22-15 win over Illinois as a 3 pt AF, but were outFD’d 23-12
and outgained 411-223. MU only has E Illinois on deck and with Pinkel being
a former MAC coach they should keep focused on the Cardinals.
Colorado St 31 CALIFORNIA 27 - First meeting. CSU is coming off an
emotional opener vs rival Colorado in which they were down 35-14, and
pulled back to tie it at 35, but lost as the Buffs scored with :40 left.
They outgained Colorado 585-504 as QB Bradlee Van Pelt hit for 339 yds
(47%). The Rams are 2-10 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs the L/12 Pac 10 foes. CSU is
5-10-1 ATS on the road in Sept S/’96. Cal’s young QB’s just faced two
blitzing top-notch defenses and take a step down here vs CSU’s #65 D. HC
Sonny Lubick is 13-7 ATS on the road the L/3Y. Cal has played far better
than expected and Lubick has surprisingly lost 3 straight games. CSU’s
offense will be a much bigger test than SM for a Cal D that returns just 2
starters. Take the dog here.
PITT 49 Kent St 17 - Kent is coming off a Thursday night come-from-behind
win over rival Akron. The Flashes scored 17 pts in the final 3:30 to post
the 41-38 win. In that game a healthy KSU QB Joshua Cribbs threw for 340
yds (58%). This is the Panthers’ season opener so Kent has the edge with a
game under their belts. Pitt is 6-3 ATS their L/9 vs the MAC. We list Pitt
as a darkhorse National Title contender. They have sold a record number of
season tickets this year, and Heinz Field should be packed and loud. Pitt
is 1-6 ATS as a DD favorite since 2000. These teams last met in 2000 and
Pitt won 30-7, but did not cover (-26). Cribbs gives Kent backdoor
potential, but this is a talent mismatch with only Ball St on deck for
Panthers.
W Virginia 37 E CAROLINA 17 - The Mountaineers are 11-2 SU in this series
and they have covered each of the L/3 meetings, although EC is 3-1-1 ATS in
Greenville. The fav in the series is 6-3-3 ATS. In LY’s meeting WV won
37-17 as a 7’ pt HF behind a BE and WV record 536 yds rushing. EC will be
playing on just 4 days rest off of a trip to Cincy with Miami (FL) on deck.
WV was at home vs Wisky LW and lost 24-17 as a 3 pt HD as the Badgers
delivered a 4* Top Weekly College Late Phone Winner. WV was outgained
438-300 and outFD’d 26-14. WV played half the game without QB Rasheed
Marshall due to an abdominal injury. Marshall is expected to be fine here
and backup Charles Hales looked good. EC is 1-4 ATS their L/5 as a HD. WV
is 2-0 ATS as an AF under HC Rich Rodriguez covering by 27 and 19 and take
a big step down in level of competition and have the situational edge with
EC on a very short week.
ARKANSAS 49 Tulsa 6 - These teams have not met S/‘93. UT is 9-25 as an AD
S/‘96 and 5-19 on grass. UA is 13-0 SU & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under HC
Houston Nutt. Tulsa has the advantage of having a game under their belt.
The Hurricanes’ D has allowed 5.7 and 5.3 ypc the L/2Y and check in at #107
and face a top-notch Hog rush attack. UT is 1-7-1 ATS their L/9 vs BCS
foes. UA has a quality duo of QB’s in starter Matt Jones and backup Ryan
Sorahan. UT trailed Minny 35-0 at halftime LW and QB James Kilian (Tyler
Gooch left team in Aug) finished hitting for 171 yds (56%). The Hogs’
O-line has a 57 lb per man edge over the Tulsa D-line. The only question
here is that Texas looms next week for UA in the resumption of a bitter
rivalry. LY the Hogs beat Boise and S Fla, two teams that were 22-3 on the
year by a combined 83-17 and Tulsa was 1-11 LY.
UNLV 37 KANSAS 27 - LY was the first ever meeting and marked KU QB Bill
Whittemore’s first Div IA start. He hit 22 of 42 for 225 yds. KU was
outrushed 291-69 in the contest & Whittemore slipped the Hawks in the
backdoor on a TD pass with :45 left in a 31-20 loss as 14 pt dogs. KU is
just 1-13 ATS as a HD. The KU offense should be improved in the 2nd year of
Mark Mangino’s schemes & put up 355 yds on NW LW in the rain. Mangino
signed one of the top JUCO classes in the country (13 signees) but it may
take a few games for them to be assimilated into the defense. KU DC Bill
Young was John Robinson’s DC at USC. UNLV is coming off a 28-18 win vs
Toledo which delivered as the Friday Night ESPN Play. Kurt Nantkes threw
for 308 yds. UNLV has some super RB’s taking on a team that allowed 5.6 ypc
rushing LY and 196 yds rushing to NU’s Jason Wright LW. UNLV rates the edge
on both offense and defense. Kansas only has 1 starting OL back from LY and
takes on a pretty good UNLV D-line.
TEXAS A&M 30 Utah 20 - Their only meeting was in 1936. Utah is 14-3 ATS as
an AD S/’95. New HC Urban Meyer got off to a great start at Bowling Green
upsetting two teams from BCS conferences in his first year and hopes to
pull a surprise here. A&M also has a new HC in Dennis Franchione and while
they are just 1-5 ATS as a HF the L/2Y, Kyle Field is a tough place to play
and they have a bye next week. LW A&M only beat Ark St 26-11 and the QB
tandem of Reggie McNeal & Dustin Long threw for just 137 yds & the Aggies’
offense had just 15 FD’s. The Utes beat Utah St 40-20 and RB Brandon
Warfield ran for an impressive 173 yds. The Utes also have a QB rotation
with Brett Elliott & Alex Smith combining for 180 passing yds. Utah has won
4 straight as an AD and only lost to Michigan on the road LY by 3 pts. The
Utes had 2 extra days to prep but also face the hurdle of playing in the
heat of Texas.
TCU 30 Navy 17 - These two have had just one recent meeting with TCU
winning 24-0 in 2000 as a 27 pt AF. Navy beat IAA VMI as the Middies had a
28-16 FD edge while outgaining the Keydets, 598-296 LW. Both teams have a
bye next week but TCU may have trouble adjusting here from Tulane’s passing
attack to the option especially on a short week (played on Monday, outcome
unknown) and may be let down after a National TV game vs a conf rival.
TCU’s aggressive defense did fare well vs the last pure option attack they
faced holding Nebraska to 310 yards and 21 pts in Lincoln in ‘01. TCU HC
Gary Patterson is 0-4-1 ATS when favored by more than 13 pts. TCU is 3-6-1
ATS in their L/9 as a DD fav. Navy is 4-2 ATS on the road under HC Paul
Johnson losing to ND by only 7 and bowl bound WF by 3 LY. Navy also
traveled to Texas and upset SMU 38-7 LY as a DD dog and are in a solid
situation here.
TEXAS TECH 34 New Mexico 20 - LY the Red Raiders manhandled the Lobos 49-0,
outgaining them 590-199 yds (469-114 in the air). After the game NM HC
Rocky Long was publicly upset that TT QB Kliff Kingsbury was still throwing
late into the 4Q. NM is 0-8 SU & 2-5-1 ATS S/’86 vs TT, being outscored in
those games by a avg of 33.6-16.3. Tech should go all out with a bye on
deck but is a surprising 0-6 ATS prior to a bye S/’96. NM’s defensive
schemes can be confusing (did lose their DC Bronco Mendenhall to BYU TY)
and in Kingsbury’s first start vs NM the team had just 255 total yards at
home. The next 2 years they had 426 and 590 as he gained experience. TT QB
BJ Symons hit 297 yds in his debut LW. In LY’s game NM QB Casey Kelly broke
his arm in the 1Q but continued to play. TT has just 5 starters back on
defense but did hold SMU to just 280 total yds while forcing 4 TO’s with 7
underclassmen in the starting lineup under new DC Lyle Setencich. NM won
72-8 over IAA SW Texas St LW. NM is 10-6-1 ATS as an AD the L/4Y but do
have a big game vs BYU on deck.
MIAMI (FL) 34 Florida 17 - The Gators are 3-6 SU & ATS vs Miami S/’80. This
rivalry was renewed LY (first meeting S/’87) and UM crushed UF 41-16
outgaining the Gators 508-354, but a 97 yard int ret for a TD put the game
away (see Past History). UM QB Brock Berlin is taking on his old team, but
more importantly, it will be one of the Florida QB’s first road start. UF
QB Ingle Martin started LW, but true frosh Chris Leak alternated with him
most of the game. The Gator defense, under new DC Charlie Strong, only
allowed 185 yds. Florida is in a rebuilding year despite LW’s romp. UM has
an excellent secondary to thwart UF’s passing game. UF was actually
outscored by an avg of 23-22 on the road LY. Miami has Top 10 units on both
sides of the ball and a National Title contender while UF may have their
weakest team S/’89. UM did struggle at home vs Florida St LY (-13) winning
by 1 with FSU missing a FG at the end. The Gators have been a DD dog twice
S/’90 and lost both ATS (at FSU each time).
USC 34 BYU 10 - First meeting. BYU opened vs GT last Thursday in the debut
of Bronco Mendenhall’s defense and held the Yellow Jackets to 243 yds.
Cougars QB Matt Berry hit for 276 yds (67%) with a 3-1 ratio. An
interesting side note is that USC’s OC Norm Chow was BYU’s OC from
1982-1999. The Cougars are 4-9 ATS vs the Pac 10, but 4-2 ATS the L/6. BYU
is a poor 2-13 ATS their L/15 road openers (rely on JUCO’s which take time
to acclimate to IA). USC whipped Auburn 23-0 and only have Hawaii and a bye
on deck. QB Matt Leinart won the battle and the 6-5 lefty (PS#9) was an
efficient 17 of 30 for 192 yds. USC’s defense held Auburn to 164 total yds.
USC has our #14 rated secondary to match up to BYU’s pass attack. BYU is
just 6-11 ATS as an AD. USC’s players backs must be sore this week from all
the pats on it they will be receiving.
LSU 37 ARIZONA 13 - Arizona is a terrible HD going 3-13 ATS in that role
S/’95. They are 6-13 ATS the L/4Y off of a SU win. The Wildcats got the
season off to a great start LW with their 42-7 win over UTEP. After only
rushing for a total of 526 yds (1.5 ypc) for the ENTIRE 2002 season they
opened with 217 yds rushing and a nice 5.3 ypc. HC John Mackovic rotated
his QB’s LW and each threw for 109 yds. LSU is just 1-4 ATS as an AF under
Nick Saban. The Tigers exerted little effort in their 49-7 blowout of UL
Monroe LW and only have W Illinois next week. QB Matt Mauck returned
(missed 2H of LY with injury) to hit for 153 yds (46%) with a 3-1 ratio.
LSU has our #2 rated O-line and two veteran QB’s, so their offense should
have no trouble with the Cats’ mild home crowd in the Tigers’ first road game.
STANFORD 30 San Jose St 27 - SJS returned just 6 starters LY and they
lacked quality depth but that may not be the case in 2003 as they return 16
starters. The Spartans are also 7-3 ATS in their L/10 road games. Stan has
won the L/2 in this series by 27 and 37 pts but SJS is 14-6 ATS the L/20
and get up for their nearby rival in what the Spartans refer to as class
warfare (underprivileged vs the rich). The Spartans have actually won the
previous 3 SU as DD dogs!! HC Buddy Teevens was just 6-17-1 ATS at home at
Tulane and 3-3 ATS here LY. LY the situation favored Stan as SJS was on
their 3rd straight road game and Stan had a 563-211 yard edge. It was 28-26
in the 3Q but Stan scored the final 35 pts vs a depth shy team. TY the
situation favors SJS as they have TWO games under their belt while Stan is
playing their opener and have just 3 starters back on offense. We give SJS
a shot at the outright upset and LY’s blowout loss (it was 6-3 with 6:00
left 2Q) gives us line value here.
UConn 30 ARMY 17 - First ever meeting. UConn just opened up brand new
Rentschler Field vs Indiana winning 34-10 as a 6 pt HF. QB Dan Orlovsky
passed for 307 yds and RB Terry Caulley added 166 yds on the ground (7.5)
as the Huskies have now won 5 straight games. HC Randy Edsall will have to
keep his team focused vs Army (1-11 LY), because they have BC visiting next
week who will be a conf foe in 2004. LY UConn was the NCAA’s only perfect
road team going 6-0 ATS. They were 2-0 ATS as an AF LY. LY the Huskies
played at Navy and won 38-0, while two games later the Midshipmen destroyed
Army 58-12. The Black Knights are just 7-10-1 ATS as a HD. Army is 12-4 ATS
in their L/16 lined season openers. UConn has the edge of having a game
under their belt.
GEORGIA 38 Middle Tenn 10 - The Blue Raiders are coming off a horrific
final play loss in their Thursday night game vs IAA Fla Atlantic. MTSU is
5-3 ATS their L/8 vs the SEC. They did give Alabama a game LY coming up
short 39-34 as a 17 pt AD. The Bulldogs are coming off a 30-0 rout of
Clemson. GA does have their SEC opener vs S Carolina on deck so this is
definitely a sandwich situation. GA is just 3-7 ATS their L/10 home openers
and 6-12 ATS as DD fav’s. Be careful not to overreact to LW’s divergent
results.
MINNESOTA 41 Troy St 6 - Troy St is coming off a 41-5 loss against K-St as
an 37 pt AD. QB Hansell Bearden threw for just 69 yds (47%) and was sacked
7 times. Minny is off a 49-10 crushing of Tulsa as a 30’ pt HF and only has
Ohio U on deck. Glen Mason has put the hammer down vs the lightweights with
his avg win vs non-BCS conf teams being by 33.7 ppg the L/4Y. Troy’s
offense avg just 253 ypg vs IA teams LY and is rated #116 while Minny has
our #20 rated offense with QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq and our #12 set of RB’s.
The Gophers did suffer a setback LW when PS#23JC WR Paris Hamilton was
ruled out for the season.
La Tech 30 LOUISIANA-LFT 24 - ULL is coming off a 14-7 loss to S Carolina
as a 24 pt AD. In that game QB Jerry Babb threw for 134 yds in his debut.
Travis Smothers (Warrick Dunn’s brother) had 113 yds on just 19 carries
(5.9). Because of scheduling oddities in the SBC, this is actually the
Cajuns’ conference opener. LT is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the L/4 in this instate
series. LY LT was 0-7 SU on the road and averaged 20.5 ppg and 162 ypg
total offense less away from Ruston but this is a short trip. LT returns
just 4 starters on D and ULL rates a slight edge on that side. ULL DB’s
finished #113 (of 117) in our pass efficiency D rankings LY and LT will air
it out as they averaged 303 ypg passing in 2002 with QB Luke McCown.
N TEXAS 23 Baylor 13 - These schools are 114 miles apart. BU is 3-0 SU &
2-0 ATS vs the Mean Green with the L/2 contest coming in ‘99 & 2000. The
2000 game also is ‘historically significant’ as it marked the only time
that BU was an AF in the L/5Y. The Morriss era opened with a 24-19 loss at
UAB. BU is 1-7 SU & ATS on plastic. The Bears are a paltry 4-15 ATS as an
AD. They are 6-1 ATS vs lined non-BCS conf foes. The Mean Green QB’s were a
combined 7 of 26 for just 79 yards against the #1 rated Sooner defense. The
Eagles are 5-2 ATS as a HF S/’98 but all have been vs the SBC. NT rates a
huge edge on D and special teams as well. Baylor covered as the Big Dog
Play of the Week LW and could make a game of it.
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 19 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 151-84
64%! Last year the Underdog Play of the Week added another 4 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is the Underdog Play for this week:
NORTHWESTERN +7' over AIR FORCE
The Cats opened up disastrously LY vs the Falcons with a 52-3 loss in
Colorado Springs. In that game QB Tony Stauss received his first start
(5-10 22 yds & 1 fmbl) but was pulled in the 2Q for the more mobile Brett
Basanez (14-26, 158 yds). NU started 5 soph’s & 3 frosh on D and became
even younger when the unit’s only seniors, MLB Pat Durr & CB Raheem
Covington, were inj’d on the first series. In fact, Durr’s season ending
injury came on a controversial block which HC Walker described as a
“cowardly cut block.” Durr returns as one of 8 starters on defense which
should be far more stout. The Cats had a warm-up against a mobile QB (like
Harridge) LW holding KU’s Bill Whittemore to 240 yds. Basanez ended up
leading all frosh in the NCAA in passing yds hitting 2204 yds (58.5%) with
a 7-7 ratio. The dog is 1-4 ATS in this series S/‘88 & the AF is 3-2 SU. NU
is 7-13 in their home openers. LW AF soared 49-0 over IAA Wofford. The OL
has 4 Sr’s. The Falcons are 8-1 both SU & ATS in road openers S/’94. NU’s
RB Jason Wright had 4 TD’s with 196 yds (4.8) LW vs KU. The last time AF
traveled here was 1995 and we used one of our famed Underdog Plays of the
Week on NU +3 and they won outright 30-6. FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN 31 Air
Force 30
4* FLORIDA ST over Maryland - We used Florida St as our Sept 5* LY and FSU
won convincingly 37-10 with a 435-298 yd edge. “The Fridge” has done an
incredible job turning the Terp program around but has yet to figure out
how to beat Florida St. In 2001, Maryland stood 7-0 and became the first
ACC team to get less than DD’s (+8) in Tallahassee since the Noles joined
the conf in ‘92. FSU pounded the Terps 52-31. LY FSU led 30-0 at the half.
Chris Rix has 8 TD’s in two games vs the Maryland D. Maryland has snuck up
on some teams the last few years, but FSU will be very focused for this as
the Terps are the only team besides FSU to win an outright ACC Title since
FSU joined the league. The Terps are coming off a very disappointing upset
loss to N Illinois, 20-13. MD was without starting RB Bruce Perry LW and
his replacement Josh Allen rushed for 67 yds (3.4) while QB Scott McBrien
threw for 110 yds (50%). Perry and standout WR/KR/PR Steve Suter are both
expected to practice this week (call the Northcoast Full Service Line for
inj updates). The Seminoles returned to Kenan Stadium LW to beat UNC 37-0
as a 3* Late Phone Selection for us. PS#1 Lorenzo Booker rushed for 87 yds
and Greg Jones looked good returning from injury. Will we use the Seminoles
as our Top Weekly Late Phone for a second straight year vs the Terps?
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 40 Maryland 10
3* TENNESSEE over Marshall - Marshall is coming off a tune-up game vs IAA
Hofstra in which QB Stan Hill hit for 347 yds (68%), but also threw 3 int
and lost 2 fumbles. Now Hill must face UT’s #10 rated defense in front of
105,000+. Their O-line has just 2 starters back and should struggle with
the noise. Marshall is 0-4 SU & ATS vs the BCS schools the L/3Y and that
was WITH Leftwich at QB (lost to Florida by 35). UT is coming off a
dominating 24-6 win over Fresno St. Their defense held FSU to 117 total yds
(see Backdoor Covers). They rushed for 274 yds (6.2) in a return to old
school UT FB. The Vols have a bye next week before playing Florida so they
should use this game to get both sides of the ball in tune they won’t
overlook a Marshall team that has won 5 straight bowl games. In Phil
Fulmer’s early years he was known in some circles as “Phil Kills” for his
demolition of opp’s especially at home and is probably trying to get his
team to regain its swagger with blowouts helping the cause. Marshall is 0-6
as an AD the L/4Y and is a weaker team than the one UT dismantled LW.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 45 Marshall 10
3* WASHINGTON over Indiana - The Huskies are off a 28-9 opening game loss
vs LY’s National Champs, a 2* Winner for us on these pages. Washington is
6-14 ATS S/’97 off of a SU loss. While LY’s loss to a Big 10 power
(Michigan) in the opener was demoralizing, this year’s nationally televised
whipping may motivate the Dawgs. They are 7-3 ATS in home openers. Indiana
is 6-14 as an AD. Travel could be a consideration here as well as Indiana
goes from the East Coast to the West Coast in 7 days. UW is just 6-13-1 ATS
L/12Y as a HF but should be stronger in that role under OC Keith
Gilbertson. Husky QB Cody Pickett (4458 yards, a Pac 10 record LY) faces a
secondary that has only one player taller than 5-11 on their two deep and
has finished #96, #95, and #117 the L/3Y in our pass D rankings. Three
projected secondary starters didn’t finish LW’s game for the Hoosiers in FS
Joe Gonzalez (knee), SS Herana-Daze Jones (neck) & CB Damien Jones
(academics) is out for the season. Both Gonzalez & Jones are ? for this
week. IU allowed UConn to rush for 201 yds. The Dawgs’ running game was
nonexistent vs the Bucks (7 total yds) but has a chance to get healthy at
the Hoosiers’ expense. For Indy, ND transfer QB Matt LoVecchio had just 35
yds until mid-3Q LW and finished hitting for 211 yds (45%). The Hoosiers
piled up 205 of their 321 total yds in the game’s final 16:00. UW is still
our pick to win the Pac 10 and regains confidence here. FORECAST:
WASHINGTON 49 Indiana 10
NCAA OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* Oklahoma over ALABAMA - We used Alabama +12 as our Underdog Play of the
Week on these pages LY and they didn’t disappoint despite a very misleading
37-27 final (see Past History). LY’s meeting was the first between these 2
powers that have combined for 13 National Titles since ‘70 & Bama held OU
to -23 yds rushing. Keep in mind that OU went on to rush for 191 ypg (4.5)
LY. Bama is 0-2 ATS as a HD the L/3Y. OU is surprisingly just 2-6 ATS & 3-5
SU as an AF of 15 or less since ‘98. New Bama HC Mike Shula takes on the
first big test of his career here vs one of the NCAA’s best coaches &
teams. OU QB Jason White (ACL inj vs Bama LY) hit for 248 yds (66%) with 3
TD’s in the opener. OU rushed for just 105 yds (3.3) vs N Texas. Bama has
been in turmoil with Shula being their 4th HC in 42 months. QB Brodie
Croyle is in his 3rd offensive system in less than a year. Bama started out
slow LW vs S Florida trailing 17-7 in the 2Q. LY Bama could’ve been the
better team, but still lost, and TY there is no doubt OU is superior.
FORECAST: Oklahoma 27 ALABAMA 10
2* NEBRASKA over Utah St - Utah St is coming off a loss to instate rival
Utah 40-20 as a 20 pt AD. First year starting QB Travis Cox threw for 280
yds (46%) with a 1-1 ratio. USU is 1-5 ATS vs the Big 12 S/’96 and 4-16 ATS
their L/20 as a DD dog. Nebraska came through as a 3* Late Phone Play
beating 24th ranked Oklahoma St. The Blackshirts held the potent Cowboy
offense to under 200 yards. This is a sandwich spot for the Huskers as they
are off a big conf game with Penn St on deck. NU is just 3-7 ATS as a 30+
fav vs non-conf foes under HC Frank Solich. The Aggies failed to cover as a
30’ pt AD LY losing 44-13. This is a much stronger Nebraska team which
needs to regain their swagger and we continue to play on the Huskers.
FORECAST: NEBRASKA 48 Utah St 6
2* OKLAHOMA ST over Wyoming - Joe Glenn got his first win as a IA HC vs
Montana St LW, 21-10. These two last met in 1995 and WY won 45-25 as 10 pt
fav’s (3* Winner on these pages). That was WY’s only SU & ATS win ever vs
Okla St. WY has only played on art turf 5 times S/’98 and lost ATS each
time. WY is 7-4 ATS their L/11 vs the Big 12. LW we went against OSU with
Nebraska which was a 2* Winner for us on these pages & a 3* Late Phone
Winner. OSU’s offense is potent with QB Josh Fields and WR Rashaun Woods
and after being shutdown by the Blackshirts LW (just 11 FD’s, 183 yds) they
will enjoy facing our #116 rated defense. They only have SW MO St on deck
but maybe in a letdown spot as all August they talked about how HUGE LW’s
game vs Nebraska was (biggest opener in school history). WY has lost 6
straight ATS on the road vs BCS teams. OSU HC Les Miles has won his last 4
as a fav covering imposts of 28 and 23 LY so he takes care of business vs
this class. Look for OSU’s offense to pour it on after being stifled LW vs
our #10 rated defense. FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 49 Wyoming 13
NCAA OTHER GAMES:
S Miss at UAB - The Golden Eagles are 3-0 SU but only 0-2-1 ATS in this
series and the games have been decided by a total of just 13 pts. In LY’s
meeting SM was without star RB Derrick Nix and backup James Walley had 100
yds rushing as SM won 20-13 as a 7 pt AF. LW SM lost 34-2 at Cal, their
lowest point total since being shut out by Tennessee in 1995. UAB beat
Baylor 24-19 as QB Darrell Hackney hit 238 yds (45%) with a 50 yd TD pass
with just :40 remaining despite suffering a knee injury on the previous
series. RB Bo Moncur added 136 yds (6.5) and a TD in his first career game.
S Miss is traveling back from California, having to play on a short week
but always plays well in Alabama where many of their recruits are from.
This is the Thursday Night espn2 game. There is also an NFL game on ABC.
Call Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline on Thursday after 5:00 ET
1-900-903-9467 and get the TV game he selects for just $9! Phil’s Marquee
Private Play Hotline Plays are 23-4 85% so far this year!
Oregon St 31 FRESNO ST 30 - The home team is 9-1 ATS in this series and the
fav 7-3 ATS. In the last meeting here in 2000, OSU came in as SI’s
Preseason #1 team and FSU simply embarrassed the Beavers 44-24 as a 3’ pt
HD, their only time as a HD in this series. In that game FSU outgained them
458-323 as our PPH Sunday Night ESPN Play Winner. LY OSU rolled 59-19 as a
11’ pt HF as RB Steven Jackson ran for 227 yds with 2 TD’s, but while QB
Derek Anderson was only 9 of 20. The Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their L/14 vs
Pac 10 foes. Since ‘99 OSU is 2-7 ATS as an AF but 9-3 ATS as an AD. FSU is
very dangerous as a HD going 7-0 ATS their L/7 with SIX outright upsets
covering by 21.6 ppg!! FSU QB Paul Pinegar missed LW and the team generated
just 4 FD’s at Tennessee. This is the Friday Night ESPN game. Phil’s
Marquee Private Play Hotline Plays are 23-4 85% so far this year and you
can get tonight’s Friday Night ESPN play for just $9 at 1-900-903-9467
after 5:00 ET on Friday.
PENN ST 24 Boston College 17 - These two Eastern powers met on a yearly
basis from ‘81-’92 with PSU holding the all-time edge in the series 19-2 SU
but BC has a 7-3 ATS edge the L/10. In their last meeting in 1992 the
Eagles, under the direction of Tom Coughlin, pulled the 35-32 upset as 10
pt dogs in Happy Valley. PSU is 27-5 SU vs Big East foes S/‘90 but is 2-6
ATS the L/8 including LW’s 23-10 SU win (but ATS loss) vs Temple. BC is
2-12 in road openers S/‘89. PSU is 17-12 ATS as a HF S/‘97. PSU lost 2,000
yd rusher Larry Johnson and Paterno started backup QB Mike Robinson at TB
vs Temple LW. Robinson combined with true frosh Austin Scott (PS#16) to
rush for 153 yds. Lions’ QB Zack Mills hit for a disappointing 79 yds (35%)
with 0 yds passing after halftime. PSU’s rebuilt DL (replaced three #1 & #2
DC’s) allowed 162 yds rushing (4.1) to the Owls. PSU also has a rebuilt OL
in which all 5 players got their 1st collegiate starts and takes on BC’s
D-line which we rate 16th best. BC returns 11 starters overall but new QB
Quinton Porter is making his first road start in front of 100,000+. Porter
hit for 243 yds (56.4%) & the team committed 3 TO’s in LW’s misleading loss
to Wake Forest. BC outFD’d the Deacons 28-15 & outgained them 448-316. BC
soph RB Derrick Knight rushed for 144 yds (4.8). BC is 3-8 ATS the L/3Y as
an AD. PSU has a big game vs Nebraska on deck while BC has UConn.
OHIO ST 41 San Diego St 3 - SDST lost to OSU 27-12 in ‘01 (first ever
meeting) but covered as 22’ pt road dogs and actually had a 12-6 halftime
lead. The Aztecs are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS the L/10 road openers. They are only
5-13 ATS in their L/18 Sept non-conf games. SDST is a nice 9-1 ATS the L/4Y
as DD AD’s. OSU is just 3-7 ATS as 20+ fav’s but is 8-1 ATS the L/2Y at
home under Jim Tressel. This is a sandwich for OSU as they are off a 28-9
win vs Washington with NCSt on deck. This is a long flight for SDST and
they must play in Ohio’s humidity. OSU has major advantages in the trenches
as their O-line weighs an avg of 315 lbs vs the Aztecs 261 lb avg D-line
with just 1 starter back. SDST’s OL has 4 starters back but allowed 43
sacks LY and OSU’s has our #1 rated D-line. San Diego St is off a narrow
19-9 victory over IAA Eastern Washington, and things will get a lot tougher
as they face the Buckeyes. Ohio St outrushed Washington 142-7, and look for
that gap to widen this week even in a sandwich. LW SDST star QB Adam Hall
hit just 6 of 14 playing with a severe ankle sprain and will likely not
play here leaving the QB job to Illinois transfer Matt Dlugolecki (PS#56)
who hit 11 of 19 for 94 yards.
MICHIGAN 44 Houston 17 - Houston is 4-13 ATS S/’97 as a DD AD and 3-8 ATS
their L/11 on the fake stuff. UH is 3-0 ATS in their L/3 vs BCS foes while
being at least a 31 pt dog in each. UH is breaking in new schemes under new
HC Art Briles returning just 11 starters but LW had 414 yards after 3Q
despite starting true frosh QB Kevin Kolb (PS#52, played in Briles’ system
in HS). Kolb finished with 246 yds through the air (77%) and added 2
rushing TD’s. Michigan had 615 yards LW vs CM. RB Chris Perry had a UM
record 232 yds (10.5) rushing. The Cougars visited the Big House twice in
the 90’s getting hammered 61-7 (+18) in ‘92 and 42-21 (+35) in ‘93. The
Cougar offensive backfield is comprised of 3 underclassmen and they face a
fierce Top 10 Michigan defense. QB John Navarre should pad his numbers
against an outfit that returns just 5 defensive starters and has finished
just #93 and #103 the L/2Y in our pass defense rankings. Returning for this
game will be UM AA DB Marlin Jackson who was suspended for the opener.
Since ‘80 UM is 3-5 ATS the week before ND but did cover their last two.
WISCONSIN 44 Akron 17 - UW is 11-0 SU vs the MAC but just a 6-5 ATS
including LY’s near-upset at the hands of N Illinois (24-21, NI had 455-275
yd edge). UW HC Barry Alvarez has vowed to take back the huge home field
advantage that the Badgers used to enjoy at Camp Randall Stadium as they
are just 4-12 ATS as a HF the L/3Y. The Badgers are 1-9 ATS as a fav of 10
or more S/‘99. This is the debut of the new FieldTurf surface. WR Lee Evans
(missed LY) scored 2 TD’s LW & combined with RB Anthony Davis (167 yds vs
WV) to help the Badgers win our first 4* Top Weekly College Late Phone Play
of the season, 24-17. The defense returns 9 starters. For this game UW’s
defensive front will be a bit short handed as PS#5LB Darius Jones (susp) &
DE Erasmus James is ? after sitting out LW (inj). AU is 1-4 ATS vs Big 10
foes being outscored on avg 45-16. Akron is coming off a last second 41-38
loss in a Thursday game vs arch-rival Kent St. Our College Totals Club
called for the Akron/KSU game to go Over 58 which was an easy 3* Winner.
The Akron offense returns 11 starters but will face a much bigger challenge
than Kent as the Flashes allowed QB Charlie Frye to pass for 407 yds. We
rate their defense with just 6 starters back at #113 & they allowed KSU QB
Joshua Cribbs to account for 397 total yds. Wisky only has UNLV on deck and
in their ‘98 & ‘99 Rose Bowl years they won their non-conf games by an avg
of 45 ppg at home.
IOWA 41 Buffalo 3 - UI is 10-0 ATS as DD fav’s under Kirk Ferentz. The
Hawks are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs the MAC S/‘98 including LW’s 21-3 win over
Miami (OH) as a 10’ pt HF. The Bulls are coming off a loss at Rutgers 24-10
as a 12’ pt AD. Bulls’ QB Randall Secky threw for just 58 yds (33%). Iowa
has their bitter rivals on deck (lost 5 in a row SU vs Iowa St). New UI QB
Nathan Chandler had 129 yds (63%) and RB Fred Russell ran for 167 (7.6) yds
LW despite 4 new starters on the OL. Iowa is 10-3 ATS as a HF the L/3Y and
LY won their home games by an avg of 42-17 including Big 10 foes.
NC State 31 WAKE FOREST 20 - Heisman hopeful QB Philip Rivers has had a
couple of pedestrian games against WF throwing for 180 in 2001 and 223 LY.
LY’s game was statistically dead even everywhere but the scoreboard (see
Past History). The home team is 6-1 ATS. Wake is 9-4-2 ATS as a dog under
Grobe, including LW’s outright win vs BC. LW in his 1st career start, QB
Cory Randolph threw for 149 yds (56.5%) with a 2-2 ratio. Willie Idlette
rushed for 80 yds on 3 carries and Cornelius Birgs rushed for 65 (3.4).
Wake has just 10 starters back and look to be in for a rebuilding year. The
Wolfpack are a borderline National Title contender (a full fledged one if
they win next week at Ohio St). LW WR Tramain Hall made his much
anticipated debut for the Pack and had 2 TD’s. The situation favors Wake
although the Deacons are off a misleading win over BC LW. Wake is a
dangerous dog however and their option can be tough to prep for even with
the Ohio St distraction but the talent is on NCSt’s side and WF is not as
strong as LY’s contingent.
Mississippi 28 MEMPHIS 24 - The Rebels are 14-4-1 SU &12-6 ATS in this
series dating back to ‘80. In LY’s meeting Memphis was up 7-0 early but
they went on to lose 38-16 as an 8’ pt AD. The Tigers are 1-17 SU but 11-7
ATS vs SEC foes S/’95. Memphis is 9-4 ATS as a HD. Memphis avg 33 ppg at
home LY but just 17.5 ppg on the road. Despite just 4 returning starters on
offense, they have veteran QB Danny Wimprine (3 yr st’r) and he set several
UM career records LW in the win over Tenn Tech. They return 8 starters on D
and that unit is headed up by former Miss St DC Joe Lee Dunn who is
obviously very familiar with the Mississippi offense. Ole Miss had just 297
yds vs Dunn’s MSU D LY. While the defenses and special teams are rated
about even in our rankings Ole Miss does rate a huge edge on offense at #11
(Mem #99) with Eli Manning. This is the Rebels’ 2nd straight road game, and
they barely got past Vandy LW. Manning hit for 275 yds (66.7%), but fumbled
twice and had several dropped passes. Ole Miss is 8-4-1 ATS as an AF the
L/8Y and in LY’s win had a 26-14 FD edge.
PURDUE 40 Bowling Green 13 - The Falcons are coming off an easy victory
over IAA E Kentucky, 63-13. BG QB Josh Harris led BG to a 43-42 upset at
N’western in 2001. BG is 5-0 SU & ATS vs BCS schools the L/2Y but that was
under HC Urban Meyer who left for Utah. OC Gregg Brandon has taken over. PU
is 5-2 ATS vs the MAC. Both teams run the pass happy spread offense. PU has
our #15 rated D (9 returning starters) which should contain Harris. The
Boilers have two solid QB’s which, much like the NFL Preseason, makes
Purdue attractive when up big late. PU’s special teams look to be much
improved after LY’s fiascoes which directly cost them no less than 3 games.
BG does have the edge of having a game under their belt but Tiller is
22-12-1 ATS at home. He has a large ego about his offense and should relish
showing up BG which had LY’s #1 scoring offense in the NCAA statistics and
had 63 pts LW. BG did not defeat a team with a winning record LY despite
being ranked at 8-0 and they were 0-2 ATS as an AD losing by 18 to Toledo
and 22 to S Florida.
N CAROLINA 31 Syracuse 30 - After suffering the first losing season in Paul
Pasqualoni’s 12 year tenure, the Orangemen open 2003 looking to avenge LY’s
30-22 home loss to the 3-9 Tar Heels. SU is 0-3 SU & ATS their L/3 road
openers. They are 5-9 ATS on grass. The visitor is 3-0 SU & ATS in the
series. The Tar Heels are 2-10 ATS under Bunting at home. In LY’s win, QB
Darian Durant hit 19-36 for 284 yards and they got 3 FG’s of 50+ from K Dan
Orner. We won with a 3* Late Phone Play on Florida St over UNC LW, 37-0 a
game in which Durant threw for 145 yds (58%). UNC has a large edge with a
game under their belt. They did allow 4.8 ypc rushing LY (5.6 LW) which
plays into the hands of the SU option. SU has a significant edge on special
teams. Both teams are improved and this looks like a toss-up, so take the
points.
IOWA ST 34 Ohio U 13 - Both teams struggled with IAA opponents LW. Iowa St
has a huge game vs Iowa on deck. The Cyclones all frosh backfield of QB
Austin Flynn & RB Stevie Hicks combined for 242 yds vs N Iowa LW. Hicks had
just 23 yds and was replaced by Wagner (82 yds). The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS
as a DD fav S/‘98. ISU DE Tyson Smith was seriously injured in the opener
and may be out the season. The last meeting in ‘01 featured over 1000 yards
of total offense. The late Ennis Haywood ran for 219 yards and 2 TD’s in a
31-28 win at Athens a game in which ISU had a 29-17 FD edge.
NOTRE DAME 24 Wash St 10 - The Cougars have done well on grass going 10-2
the L/3Y. QB Matt Kegel will certainly receive a tougher test this week
after facing Idaho’s weak defense LW at home (only 12 of 21 for 108 yds)
they take on our #4 rated defense on the road in a tough environment. TY’s
Cougars contingent is not as strong as LY’s Rose Bowl team. The Cougars new
HC, Bill Doba, had noted that his offensive game plan was to be more of a
ball control type, helping to keep the defense fresh. The Cougars had 339
yds rushing LW led by Jonathan Smith (160 yds, 10.0 ypc) and Chris Bruhn
(118, 13.1). ND is 8-3 ATS vs Pac 10 teams at home and Willingham was 6-1
ATS vs WSU while at Stanford. ND is 5-2 ATS their L/7 home openers, but
have a big game vs Michigan on deck and WSU has the edge of having a game
under their belt. The big matchup question for ND is an O-line with 1
starter back taking on our #13 rated D-line. While the Irish will not be
confused with Idaho, WSU’s D did hold the Vandals to 250 total yds and 44%
comp. WSU, with Jason Gesser, was pounded by Ohio St 25-7 in their road
opener LY.
MICH ST 30 Rutgers 17 - The Spartans used to be a strong HF with a 17-5
ATS mark from ‘96-2000 but are just 2-10 ATS the L/3Y. MSU has 15 starters
back and Coach Smith’s first game was a 26-21 win vs WM at home LW. WM
scored a garbage TD with just :30 left. MSU QB Jeff Smoker had 324 yds & 3
TD’s in the debut of the Smith’s spread offense. More impressively the MSU
defense allowed just 6 rushing yds. The young secondary was scorched for
333 yds passing. Rutgers figures to be much stronger TY in year 3 under HC
Schiano. LY they led Tennessee at the half on the road, but are 3-6 as an
AD the L/2Y. LW the Knights broke a 9 game losing streak by beating Buffalo
24-10. Rutgers led that game 21-0 at the half & had 410 yds. Former Iowa
signee true frosh Justice Hairston rushed for 88 yds for Rutgers. The
defense held UB QB Randall Secky to just 58 yds passing but allowed an
alarming 217 yds rushing (5.4). After the game Rutgers HC Schiano said UB
ran 50-70% new plays which may help to explain the hearty rushing numbers.
S CAROLINA 24 Virginia 23 - LY the Cavs took advantage of 7 Gamecock TO’s
(6 fmbl) to beat then-22nd ranked SC 34-21 in Charlottesville. VA has not
fared well in Columbia going 0-2 SU & ATS being outscored 79-13 (last trip
‘87). SC has their SEC opener on deck vs Georgia and has just 9 starters
back TY. SC has a talented defense and two solid CB’s to face Schaub.
However, LW vs ULL, SC was not impressive as the game was tied 7-7 until
the end of the 3Q. QB Dondrial Pinkins threw for 185 yds (only 47%) and RB
Daccus Turman rushed for just 40 yds (4.4), but you may see a different
team this week as the Holtzes like to keep things under wraps. UVA was 2-3
ATS on the road LY with one of their covers being a fortuitous backdoor vs
Fla St. The Cavs shut out Duke LW 27-0, but QB Matt Schaub (84 yds, 83%)
went down with a possible separated shoulder (call the Northcoast Full
Service Line for inj updates) and would not return. Fr Anthony Martinez
took over and threw for 76 yds. A SC upset would not be a surprise.
Auburn 37 GEORGIA TECH 13 - These 2 teams are meeting for the first time
since a 20-10 Auburn road win in ‘87. Auburn is 7-3 ATS as AF S/‘96. GT is
8-3 L/11 as HD’s. Both teams are off disappointing season opening losses.
Auburn had great expectations coming into the season with one publication
(not ours) ranking them #1 (we had them lower than anyone else at #15).
USC’s top-notch defense held them to 163 yards. We used a 3* Late Phone
Selection on BYU over GT last Thursday and BYU had a 362-243 yard edge in a
23-14 win. True frosh QB Reggie Ball beat out veteran AJ Suggs for the
start vs BYU and looked good hitting for 147 yds (63%) with an int. The key
here is GT’s injury depleted D-line which will be overwhelmed by an Auburn
rush attack that will still be among the best in the country and should
play with a vengeance. This is the wrong week for suspension and injury
depleted GT to take on a very talented Tiger team.
COLORADO 28 UCLA 24 - This is UCLA HC Karl Dorrell’s debut. LY CU met UCLA
just 1 week after getting waxed 40-3 at home by USC and the team’s
prospects looked dim. The Buffs upset the Bruins in the Rose Bowl 31-17 as
11’ pt dogs. CU outrushed UCLA 325-62. UCLA leads this series 4-1 SU & 3-2
ATS. Barnett faces 3 of his former assistants as RB Coach Bienemy & WR
Coach Embree made the move to LA when Dorrell took the job. He also fired
longtime strength coach Kreis who was promptly hired by the Bruins. CU HC
Gary Barnett was reportedly not thrilled when top UCLA signee PS#11RB
Maurice Drew switched his allegiances from the Buffs to the Bruins when
Bienemy left. The Buffs are 4-2 ATS as a HF of less than 14. New CU QB Joel
Klatt hit for 402 yds (62%) vs CSU LW and CU has the large edge of a game
under their belt and have the altitude edge as well. While their offense
was stampeding for 504 yds LW their defense was trampled for 585 yds by the
Rams. UCLA is 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS as an AD. UCLA is 8-2 ATS vs non-conf
foes. It looks like QB Matt Moore will get the nod over Drew Olson at QB
for the Bruins. Moore did start one game LY in a home win against Stanford.
The Buffs were impressive LW and have the large situational edge.
OREGON 37 Nevada 16 - UO has won the three meetings in Eugene by an avg of
51-16. The Pack is in a good spot here as they are off of a IAA foe with a
bye on deck. UN has struggled vs BCS foes losing each of their L/5 SU (2-3
ATS) by a combined score of 215-43. Oregon returns 14 starters and the Pack
17. While Nevada has 4 OL’s back and RB Chance Kretschmer (170 yds LW) they
have a young QB making his first road start in one of the toughest
stadiums, noise-wise, in the country. LW Oregon used 2 QB’s in its 42-34
win and racked up 570 total yards of offense. Nevada narrowly pulled out a
win over Southern Utah 24-23. Andy Heiser hit for 110 yds (58%) and starter
Jeff Rowe hit for 85 yds (62%). Call a Northcoast Full Service Line to
check on the status of UO DT Haloti Ngata who was injured LW.
Missouri 34 BALL ST 17 - LW BSU opened their season with a 31-7 win over
IAA Indiana St. QB Andy Roesch threw for 204 yds (50%). BSU is 0-5 SU & ATS
vs the Big 12 teams S/’92 and 2-8 ATS as a HD S/’99 but played in front of
a big crowd under the lights LW. LY BSU fmbl’d the game away constantly
giving Missouri (a 4* Small College Winner) the short field. The Cardinals
were outgained 437-314 and were destroyed on the scoreboard 41-6 as a 14 pt
AD. MU HC Gary Pinkel is very familiar with the MAC but as the HC of the
Tigers he’s just 1-2 SU & ATS with 2 outright upset losses to BG. MU is
coming off a 22-15 win over Illinois as a 3 pt AF, but were outFD’d 23-12
and outgained 411-223. MU only has E Illinois on deck and with Pinkel being
a former MAC coach they should keep focused on the Cardinals.
Colorado St 31 CALIFORNIA 27 - First meeting. CSU is coming off an
emotional opener vs rival Colorado in which they were down 35-14, and
pulled back to tie it at 35, but lost as the Buffs scored with :40 left.
They outgained Colorado 585-504 as QB Bradlee Van Pelt hit for 339 yds
(47%). The Rams are 2-10 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs the L/12 Pac 10 foes. CSU is
5-10-1 ATS on the road in Sept S/’96. Cal’s young QB’s just faced two
blitzing top-notch defenses and take a step down here vs CSU’s #65 D. HC
Sonny Lubick is 13-7 ATS on the road the L/3Y. Cal has played far better
than expected and Lubick has surprisingly lost 3 straight games. CSU’s
offense will be a much bigger test than SM for a Cal D that returns just 2
starters. Take the dog here.
PITT 49 Kent St 17 - Kent is coming off a Thursday night come-from-behind
win over rival Akron. The Flashes scored 17 pts in the final 3:30 to post
the 41-38 win. In that game a healthy KSU QB Joshua Cribbs threw for 340
yds (58%). This is the Panthers’ season opener so Kent has the edge with a
game under their belts. Pitt is 6-3 ATS their L/9 vs the MAC. We list Pitt
as a darkhorse National Title contender. They have sold a record number of
season tickets this year, and Heinz Field should be packed and loud. Pitt
is 1-6 ATS as a DD favorite since 2000. These teams last met in 2000 and
Pitt won 30-7, but did not cover (-26). Cribbs gives Kent backdoor
potential, but this is a talent mismatch with only Ball St on deck for
Panthers.
W Virginia 37 E CAROLINA 17 - The Mountaineers are 11-2 SU in this series
and they have covered each of the L/3 meetings, although EC is 3-1-1 ATS in
Greenville. The fav in the series is 6-3-3 ATS. In LY’s meeting WV won
37-17 as a 7’ pt HF behind a BE and WV record 536 yds rushing. EC will be
playing on just 4 days rest off of a trip to Cincy with Miami (FL) on deck.
WV was at home vs Wisky LW and lost 24-17 as a 3 pt HD as the Badgers
delivered a 4* Top Weekly College Late Phone Winner. WV was outgained
438-300 and outFD’d 26-14. WV played half the game without QB Rasheed
Marshall due to an abdominal injury. Marshall is expected to be fine here
and backup Charles Hales looked good. EC is 1-4 ATS their L/5 as a HD. WV
is 2-0 ATS as an AF under HC Rich Rodriguez covering by 27 and 19 and take
a big step down in level of competition and have the situational edge with
EC on a very short week.
ARKANSAS 49 Tulsa 6 - These teams have not met S/‘93. UT is 9-25 as an AD
S/‘96 and 5-19 on grass. UA is 13-0 SU & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under HC
Houston Nutt. Tulsa has the advantage of having a game under their belt.
The Hurricanes’ D has allowed 5.7 and 5.3 ypc the L/2Y and check in at #107
and face a top-notch Hog rush attack. UT is 1-7-1 ATS their L/9 vs BCS
foes. UA has a quality duo of QB’s in starter Matt Jones and backup Ryan
Sorahan. UT trailed Minny 35-0 at halftime LW and QB James Kilian (Tyler
Gooch left team in Aug) finished hitting for 171 yds (56%). The Hogs’
O-line has a 57 lb per man edge over the Tulsa D-line. The only question
here is that Texas looms next week for UA in the resumption of a bitter
rivalry. LY the Hogs beat Boise and S Fla, two teams that were 22-3 on the
year by a combined 83-17 and Tulsa was 1-11 LY.
UNLV 37 KANSAS 27 - LY was the first ever meeting and marked KU QB Bill
Whittemore’s first Div IA start. He hit 22 of 42 for 225 yds. KU was
outrushed 291-69 in the contest & Whittemore slipped the Hawks in the
backdoor on a TD pass with :45 left in a 31-20 loss as 14 pt dogs. KU is
just 1-13 ATS as a HD. The KU offense should be improved in the 2nd year of
Mark Mangino’s schemes & put up 355 yds on NW LW in the rain. Mangino
signed one of the top JUCO classes in the country (13 signees) but it may
take a few games for them to be assimilated into the defense. KU DC Bill
Young was John Robinson’s DC at USC. UNLV is coming off a 28-18 win vs
Toledo which delivered as the Friday Night ESPN Play. Kurt Nantkes threw
for 308 yds. UNLV has some super RB’s taking on a team that allowed 5.6 ypc
rushing LY and 196 yds rushing to NU’s Jason Wright LW. UNLV rates the edge
on both offense and defense. Kansas only has 1 starting OL back from LY and
takes on a pretty good UNLV D-line.
TEXAS A&M 30 Utah 20 - Their only meeting was in 1936. Utah is 14-3 ATS as
an AD S/’95. New HC Urban Meyer got off to a great start at Bowling Green
upsetting two teams from BCS conferences in his first year and hopes to
pull a surprise here. A&M also has a new HC in Dennis Franchione and while
they are just 1-5 ATS as a HF the L/2Y, Kyle Field is a tough place to play
and they have a bye next week. LW A&M only beat Ark St 26-11 and the QB
tandem of Reggie McNeal & Dustin Long threw for just 137 yds & the Aggies’
offense had just 15 FD’s. The Utes beat Utah St 40-20 and RB Brandon
Warfield ran for an impressive 173 yds. The Utes also have a QB rotation
with Brett Elliott & Alex Smith combining for 180 passing yds. Utah has won
4 straight as an AD and only lost to Michigan on the road LY by 3 pts. The
Utes had 2 extra days to prep but also face the hurdle of playing in the
heat of Texas.
TCU 30 Navy 17 - These two have had just one recent meeting with TCU
winning 24-0 in 2000 as a 27 pt AF. Navy beat IAA VMI as the Middies had a
28-16 FD edge while outgaining the Keydets, 598-296 LW. Both teams have a
bye next week but TCU may have trouble adjusting here from Tulane’s passing
attack to the option especially on a short week (played on Monday, outcome
unknown) and may be let down after a National TV game vs a conf rival.
TCU’s aggressive defense did fare well vs the last pure option attack they
faced holding Nebraska to 310 yards and 21 pts in Lincoln in ‘01. TCU HC
Gary Patterson is 0-4-1 ATS when favored by more than 13 pts. TCU is 3-6-1
ATS in their L/9 as a DD fav. Navy is 4-2 ATS on the road under HC Paul
Johnson losing to ND by only 7 and bowl bound WF by 3 LY. Navy also
traveled to Texas and upset SMU 38-7 LY as a DD dog and are in a solid
situation here.
TEXAS TECH 34 New Mexico 20 - LY the Red Raiders manhandled the Lobos 49-0,
outgaining them 590-199 yds (469-114 in the air). After the game NM HC
Rocky Long was publicly upset that TT QB Kliff Kingsbury was still throwing
late into the 4Q. NM is 0-8 SU & 2-5-1 ATS S/’86 vs TT, being outscored in
those games by a avg of 33.6-16.3. Tech should go all out with a bye on
deck but is a surprising 0-6 ATS prior to a bye S/’96. NM’s defensive
schemes can be confusing (did lose their DC Bronco Mendenhall to BYU TY)
and in Kingsbury’s first start vs NM the team had just 255 total yards at
home. The next 2 years they had 426 and 590 as he gained experience. TT QB
BJ Symons hit 297 yds in his debut LW. In LY’s game NM QB Casey Kelly broke
his arm in the 1Q but continued to play. TT has just 5 starters back on
defense but did hold SMU to just 280 total yds while forcing 4 TO’s with 7
underclassmen in the starting lineup under new DC Lyle Setencich. NM won
72-8 over IAA SW Texas St LW. NM is 10-6-1 ATS as an AD the L/4Y but do
have a big game vs BYU on deck.
MIAMI (FL) 34 Florida 17 - The Gators are 3-6 SU & ATS vs Miami S/’80. This
rivalry was renewed LY (first meeting S/’87) and UM crushed UF 41-16
outgaining the Gators 508-354, but a 97 yard int ret for a TD put the game
away (see Past History). UM QB Brock Berlin is taking on his old team, but
more importantly, it will be one of the Florida QB’s first road start. UF
QB Ingle Martin started LW, but true frosh Chris Leak alternated with him
most of the game. The Gator defense, under new DC Charlie Strong, only
allowed 185 yds. Florida is in a rebuilding year despite LW’s romp. UM has
an excellent secondary to thwart UF’s passing game. UF was actually
outscored by an avg of 23-22 on the road LY. Miami has Top 10 units on both
sides of the ball and a National Title contender while UF may have their
weakest team S/’89. UM did struggle at home vs Florida St LY (-13) winning
by 1 with FSU missing a FG at the end. The Gators have been a DD dog twice
S/’90 and lost both ATS (at FSU each time).
USC 34 BYU 10 - First meeting. BYU opened vs GT last Thursday in the debut
of Bronco Mendenhall’s defense and held the Yellow Jackets to 243 yds.
Cougars QB Matt Berry hit for 276 yds (67%) with a 3-1 ratio. An
interesting side note is that USC’s OC Norm Chow was BYU’s OC from
1982-1999. The Cougars are 4-9 ATS vs the Pac 10, but 4-2 ATS the L/6. BYU
is a poor 2-13 ATS their L/15 road openers (rely on JUCO’s which take time
to acclimate to IA). USC whipped Auburn 23-0 and only have Hawaii and a bye
on deck. QB Matt Leinart won the battle and the 6-5 lefty (PS#9) was an
efficient 17 of 30 for 192 yds. USC’s defense held Auburn to 164 total yds.
USC has our #14 rated secondary to match up to BYU’s pass attack. BYU is
just 6-11 ATS as an AD. USC’s players backs must be sore this week from all
the pats on it they will be receiving.
LSU 37 ARIZONA 13 - Arizona is a terrible HD going 3-13 ATS in that role
S/’95. They are 6-13 ATS the L/4Y off of a SU win. The Wildcats got the
season off to a great start LW with their 42-7 win over UTEP. After only
rushing for a total of 526 yds (1.5 ypc) for the ENTIRE 2002 season they
opened with 217 yds rushing and a nice 5.3 ypc. HC John Mackovic rotated
his QB’s LW and each threw for 109 yds. LSU is just 1-4 ATS as an AF under
Nick Saban. The Tigers exerted little effort in their 49-7 blowout of UL
Monroe LW and only have W Illinois next week. QB Matt Mauck returned
(missed 2H of LY with injury) to hit for 153 yds (46%) with a 3-1 ratio.
LSU has our #2 rated O-line and two veteran QB’s, so their offense should
have no trouble with the Cats’ mild home crowd in the Tigers’ first road game.
STANFORD 30 San Jose St 27 - SJS returned just 6 starters LY and they
lacked quality depth but that may not be the case in 2003 as they return 16
starters. The Spartans are also 7-3 ATS in their L/10 road games. Stan has
won the L/2 in this series by 27 and 37 pts but SJS is 14-6 ATS the L/20
and get up for their nearby rival in what the Spartans refer to as class
warfare (underprivileged vs the rich). The Spartans have actually won the
previous 3 SU as DD dogs!! HC Buddy Teevens was just 6-17-1 ATS at home at
Tulane and 3-3 ATS here LY. LY the situation favored Stan as SJS was on
their 3rd straight road game and Stan had a 563-211 yard edge. It was 28-26
in the 3Q but Stan scored the final 35 pts vs a depth shy team. TY the
situation favors SJS as they have TWO games under their belt while Stan is
playing their opener and have just 3 starters back on offense. We give SJS
a shot at the outright upset and LY’s blowout loss (it was 6-3 with 6:00
left 2Q) gives us line value here.
UConn 30 ARMY 17 - First ever meeting. UConn just opened up brand new
Rentschler Field vs Indiana winning 34-10 as a 6 pt HF. QB Dan Orlovsky
passed for 307 yds and RB Terry Caulley added 166 yds on the ground (7.5)
as the Huskies have now won 5 straight games. HC Randy Edsall will have to
keep his team focused vs Army (1-11 LY), because they have BC visiting next
week who will be a conf foe in 2004. LY UConn was the NCAA’s only perfect
road team going 6-0 ATS. They were 2-0 ATS as an AF LY. LY the Huskies
played at Navy and won 38-0, while two games later the Midshipmen destroyed
Army 58-12. The Black Knights are just 7-10-1 ATS as a HD. Army is 12-4 ATS
in their L/16 lined season openers. UConn has the edge of having a game
under their belt.
GEORGIA 38 Middle Tenn 10 - The Blue Raiders are coming off a horrific
final play loss in their Thursday night game vs IAA Fla Atlantic. MTSU is
5-3 ATS their L/8 vs the SEC. They did give Alabama a game LY coming up
short 39-34 as a 17 pt AD. The Bulldogs are coming off a 30-0 rout of
Clemson. GA does have their SEC opener vs S Carolina on deck so this is
definitely a sandwich situation. GA is just 3-7 ATS their L/10 home openers
and 6-12 ATS as DD fav’s. Be careful not to overreact to LW’s divergent
results.
MINNESOTA 41 Troy St 6 - Troy St is coming off a 41-5 loss against K-St as
an 37 pt AD. QB Hansell Bearden threw for just 69 yds (47%) and was sacked
7 times. Minny is off a 49-10 crushing of Tulsa as a 30’ pt HF and only has
Ohio U on deck. Glen Mason has put the hammer down vs the lightweights with
his avg win vs non-BCS conf teams being by 33.7 ppg the L/4Y. Troy’s
offense avg just 253 ypg vs IA teams LY and is rated #116 while Minny has
our #20 rated offense with QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq and our #12 set of RB’s.
The Gophers did suffer a setback LW when PS#23JC WR Paris Hamilton was
ruled out for the season.
La Tech 30 LOUISIANA-LFT 24 - ULL is coming off a 14-7 loss to S Carolina
as a 24 pt AD. In that game QB Jerry Babb threw for 134 yds in his debut.
Travis Smothers (Warrick Dunn’s brother) had 113 yds on just 19 carries
(5.9). Because of scheduling oddities in the SBC, this is actually the
Cajuns’ conference opener. LT is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the L/4 in this instate
series. LY LT was 0-7 SU on the road and averaged 20.5 ppg and 162 ypg
total offense less away from Ruston but this is a short trip. LT returns
just 4 starters on D and ULL rates a slight edge on that side. ULL DB’s
finished #113 (of 117) in our pass efficiency D rankings LY and LT will air
it out as they averaged 303 ypg passing in 2002 with QB Luke McCown.
N TEXAS 23 Baylor 13 - These schools are 114 miles apart. BU is 3-0 SU &
2-0 ATS vs the Mean Green with the L/2 contest coming in ‘99 & 2000. The
2000 game also is ‘historically significant’ as it marked the only time
that BU was an AF in the L/5Y. The Morriss era opened with a 24-19 loss at
UAB. BU is 1-7 SU & ATS on plastic. The Bears are a paltry 4-15 ATS as an
AD. They are 6-1 ATS vs lined non-BCS conf foes. The Mean Green QB’s were a
combined 7 of 26 for just 79 yards against the #1 rated Sooner defense. The
Eagles are 5-2 ATS as a HF S/’98 but all have been vs the SBC. NT rates a
huge edge on D and special teams as well. Baylor covered as the Big Dog
Play of the Week LW and could make a game of it.
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 19 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 151-84
64%! Last year the Underdog Play of the Week added another 4 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is the Underdog Play for this week:
NORTHWESTERN +7' over AIR FORCE
The Cats opened up disastrously LY vs the Falcons with a 52-3 loss in
Colorado Springs. In that game QB Tony Stauss received his first start
(5-10 22 yds & 1 fmbl) but was pulled in the 2Q for the more mobile Brett
Basanez (14-26, 158 yds). NU started 5 soph’s & 3 frosh on D and became
even younger when the unit’s only seniors, MLB Pat Durr & CB Raheem
Covington, were inj’d on the first series. In fact, Durr’s season ending
injury came on a controversial block which HC Walker described as a
“cowardly cut block.” Durr returns as one of 8 starters on defense which
should be far more stout. The Cats had a warm-up against a mobile QB (like
Harridge) LW holding KU’s Bill Whittemore to 240 yds. Basanez ended up
leading all frosh in the NCAA in passing yds hitting 2204 yds (58.5%) with
a 7-7 ratio. The dog is 1-4 ATS in this series S/‘88 & the AF is 3-2 SU. NU
is 7-13 in their home openers. LW AF soared 49-0 over IAA Wofford. The OL
has 4 Sr’s. The Falcons are 8-1 both SU & ATS in road openers S/’94. NU’s
RB Jason Wright had 4 TD’s with 196 yds (4.8) LW vs KU. The last time AF
traveled here was 1995 and we used one of our famed Underdog Plays of the
Week on NU +3 and they won outright 30-6. FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN 31 Air
Force 30
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