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NFL WEEK 1 - My Entire Card........
I have finalized all plays for week one, so here they are for anyone that wants to get down early like I have. In the opening week, I play a few more games than usual, trying to take advantage of some soft lines. You can usually expect about 3 or 4 plays per Sunday from me in the future. I'll bump this tread up daily for the rest of the week. Here they are....
Thursday, September 4, 2003
2 STAR: NY Jets (+3) OVER WASHINGTON
I think this line is an overreaction to the loss of Pennington. It will hurt the Jets against the better teams in the league, but I don't really see it being a huge factor here. The Jets will give the Skins a huge dose of Curtis Martin. Washington has a solid secondary, but they struggle against the run and that is the key for New York. The Jets are 15-4 against the spread in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards since 1992. The Jets defense should be able to contain the Redskin offense that is still struggling to find itself. I also have a hard time laying points with a team that is only 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 home games and 29-50 against the spread as a favorite since 1992. The Redskins are also only1-5 against the spread in the first month of the season over the last 3 years. The Jets are the play here!
Sunday, September 7, 2003
5 STAR: MIAMI (-13) OVER Houston
This is a total mismatch. The Texans caught some people off guard last season, but it won't happen this season, or here with Miami. The Texas offense is terrible. What little offense they do have is in the passing game, the ground attack is nonexistent and that is bad news against a Dolphins defense that is one of the best in the league, especially at home. Miami is 6-0 against the spread when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons and they are 9-1 against the spread when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons. On the other side of the ball, the Texans defense played well last season, but they have had trouble stopping the run this preseason and that is bad news when playing Ricky Williams and company. I look for Ricky to run wild in this game, and the Dolphins are 5-1 against the spread in home games when they rush for 150 to 175 yards since 1992 and they are 24-9 against the spread when they out gain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. The Dolphins always seem to start off the season strong, They are 6-1 against the spread in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons and they are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 home games overall. The Texans will get fucking crushed here!
5 STAR: Baltimore (+6) OVER PITTSBURGH
I really like the Ravens in this spot. The Steelers did not have a great training camp or preseason and now they have to deal with one of their defensive stars, Joey Porter being shot. The Ravens have played well at Pittsburgh the last three seasons, where they are 2-1 against the spread in that span. The Steelers are also notorious for starting the season slow. The Steelers are only 2-8 against the spread in home games in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The key for the Steelers this season will be their secondary. They got torched last season and I saw many receivers open in that secondary in the pre-season, so I am not convinced that they have resolved that problem. That being said, the magic number for the Ravens is 15-21 points, if they can get that many points here against the Steelers, which I think they will, they should be in good shape for the cover. Baltimore is 13-4 against the spread in road games when they score 15 to 21 points since 1992. The Ravens are also 6-0 against the spread in a road game when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Arizona (+4) OVER DETROIT
Detroit should be improved this season, but I can't see laying more than a field goal with the Lions early in the season. Detroit will not have much of a running game early in the season now that James Stewart is out with an injury, so most off the offensive load will be on the shoulders of the passing game and the Cardinals should be able to devise a solid defensive game plan for the one dimensional Lions offense. The Cardinals come into this game with a lot of confidence, having a very strong preseason, veteran leadership with Emmit Smith and a solid veteran quarterback in Jeff Blake. The Cardinals have done well in this role, they are 6-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Lions have been a money burner as a favorite, Detroit is 13-28 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. Take the points, Cards can win this one straight up!
3 STAR: CINCINNATI (+6) OVER Denver
I am not convinced that bringing in Jake Plummer to QB the Broncos is an upgrade over Brian Griese. This is a lot of points for Denver to be laying, and they have not done well in this role recently. The Broncos are 1-5 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons and they are 1-10 against the spread in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. I look for Marvin Lewis to have these Bengals fired up and for them to give Denver all that they can handle in this match up. Take the points!
2 STAR: CLEVELAND (-1.5) OVER Indianapolis
I hear alot of hype about the Colts going into this game, but I believe the Browns are the play here. The Colts may challange for the AFC title this season, but they have to prove that they can win these types of games on the road. I believe the Browns will also be a force in the AFC. With Holcomb at QB, the Browns have a very potent offense with weapons like Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan and WIlliam Green, and I look for them to out gun the Colts in this matchup. Indianapolis is 1-5 against the spread as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons and they are 6-16 against the spread in when the total is between
42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is also 5-1 against the spread in September games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Browns here!
2002 NFL RECORD
10 STAR GOY 1-0 (+10.0 UNITS)
5 STAR RECORD 16-7 (+41.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 14-15-1 (-7.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 18-7 (+20.6 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 10-11 (-2.1 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 59-40-1 (+62.50 UNITS)
2002 NFL PLAYOFFS 10-0
A $100 player would have won $6250.00
Thursday, September 4, 2003
2 STAR: NY Jets (+3) OVER WASHINGTON
I think this line is an overreaction to the loss of Pennington. It will hurt the Jets against the better teams in the league, but I don't really see it being a huge factor here. The Jets will give the Skins a huge dose of Curtis Martin. Washington has a solid secondary, but they struggle against the run and that is the key for New York. The Jets are 15-4 against the spread in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards since 1992. The Jets defense should be able to contain the Redskin offense that is still struggling to find itself. I also have a hard time laying points with a team that is only 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 home games and 29-50 against the spread as a favorite since 1992. The Redskins are also only1-5 against the spread in the first month of the season over the last 3 years. The Jets are the play here!
Sunday, September 7, 2003
5 STAR: MIAMI (-13) OVER Houston
This is a total mismatch. The Texans caught some people off guard last season, but it won't happen this season, or here with Miami. The Texas offense is terrible. What little offense they do have is in the passing game, the ground attack is nonexistent and that is bad news against a Dolphins defense that is one of the best in the league, especially at home. Miami is 6-0 against the spread when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons and they are 9-1 against the spread when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons. On the other side of the ball, the Texans defense played well last season, but they have had trouble stopping the run this preseason and that is bad news when playing Ricky Williams and company. I look for Ricky to run wild in this game, and the Dolphins are 5-1 against the spread in home games when they rush for 150 to 175 yards since 1992 and they are 24-9 against the spread when they out gain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. The Dolphins always seem to start off the season strong, They are 6-1 against the spread in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons and they are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 home games overall. The Texans will get fucking crushed here!
5 STAR: Baltimore (+6) OVER PITTSBURGH
I really like the Ravens in this spot. The Steelers did not have a great training camp or preseason and now they have to deal with one of their defensive stars, Joey Porter being shot. The Ravens have played well at Pittsburgh the last three seasons, where they are 2-1 against the spread in that span. The Steelers are also notorious for starting the season slow. The Steelers are only 2-8 against the spread in home games in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The key for the Steelers this season will be their secondary. They got torched last season and I saw many receivers open in that secondary in the pre-season, so I am not convinced that they have resolved that problem. That being said, the magic number for the Ravens is 15-21 points, if they can get that many points here against the Steelers, which I think they will, they should be in good shape for the cover. Baltimore is 13-4 against the spread in road games when they score 15 to 21 points since 1992. The Ravens are also 6-0 against the spread in a road game when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the points here!
3 STAR: Arizona (+4) OVER DETROIT
Detroit should be improved this season, but I can't see laying more than a field goal with the Lions early in the season. Detroit will not have much of a running game early in the season now that James Stewart is out with an injury, so most off the offensive load will be on the shoulders of the passing game and the Cardinals should be able to devise a solid defensive game plan for the one dimensional Lions offense. The Cardinals come into this game with a lot of confidence, having a very strong preseason, veteran leadership with Emmit Smith and a solid veteran quarterback in Jeff Blake. The Cardinals have done well in this role, they are 6-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Lions have been a money burner as a favorite, Detroit is 13-28 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. Take the points, Cards can win this one straight up!
3 STAR: CINCINNATI (+6) OVER Denver
I am not convinced that bringing in Jake Plummer to QB the Broncos is an upgrade over Brian Griese. This is a lot of points for Denver to be laying, and they have not done well in this role recently. The Broncos are 1-5 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons and they are 1-10 against the spread in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. I look for Marvin Lewis to have these Bengals fired up and for them to give Denver all that they can handle in this match up. Take the points!
2 STAR: CLEVELAND (-1.5) OVER Indianapolis
I hear alot of hype about the Colts going into this game, but I believe the Browns are the play here. The Colts may challange for the AFC title this season, but they have to prove that they can win these types of games on the road. I believe the Browns will also be a force in the AFC. With Holcomb at QB, the Browns have a very potent offense with weapons like Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan and WIlliam Green, and I look for them to out gun the Colts in this matchup. Indianapolis is 1-5 against the spread as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons and they are 6-16 against the spread in when the total is between
42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is also 5-1 against the spread in September games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Browns here!
2002 NFL RECORD
10 STAR GOY 1-0 (+10.0 UNITS)
5 STAR RECORD 16-7 (+41.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 14-15-1 (-7.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 18-7 (+20.6 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 10-11 (-2.1 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 59-40-1 (+62.50 UNITS)
2002 NFL PLAYOFFS 10-0
A $100 player would have won $6250.00
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