Monday Trends and Indexes 07/09

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, July 09

Good Luck on day #190 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.


-- Baseball resumes with six games on Thursday.
-- Enjoy the three days off. Go swimming, play golf!

[pm530]

Six-pack for Monday

-- Red Sox have suddenly lost six road games in a row.

-- Giants lost Barry Zito's last six starts (0-4, 7.52).

-- Twins scored 32 runs in doubleheader sweep Friday and didn't win series, losing Saturday and Sunday.

-- Mets lost six of their last eight games to keep the Braves, Phillies and Marlins in contention.

-- Oriole-Ranger series saw 4-3/3-0/2-1 games; what the hell was going on out there?

-- Trade talk be damned; Mark Buehrle got $56M for four years from the White Sox late Sunday afternoon.

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[pm530]

Monday's List of 13: Random thoughts at All-Star break

Gary Bettman can't be real happy, as Rick Tocchet has 27,000 chips at World Series of Poker. No sign of Janet Gretzky, but Jose Canseco didn't get through his first day, joining celebs like Phil Ivey, Greg Raymer, Doyle Brunson, Johnny Chan on the sidelines. Monday is the fourth and final day of the first round; so far, approximately 4,600 players have been dealt cards in three days- Monday is expected to be busier.

13) Why do players get a day off the Sunday before All-Star break? Don't they have the next three days off? Both Manny Ramirez and Carl Crawford didn't start Sunday. You can see why Ramirez might get day off, Boston has a big lead, but for the love of God, Devil Rays need every guy they can get in the lineup. For them to give Crawford Sunday off is wrong, unless he is hurt, but he played late in the game......

12) Bud Black is only fifth rookie manager in last fifty years to have his team in first place at the All-Star break. Every other time San Diego has led at the break, they've won the division.

11) All-Star break is here, but a weird thing; there are only six games Thursday, which means 18 of the 30 teams get longer break than the dozen who play Thursday. This is fair?

10) Good news for slumping Brewers; they play the Reds 13 times after the All-Star break, which should help them some.

9) The Mets are struggling, but they insist on batting stiffs in 2-hole behind Jose Reyes. Sunday it was David Newhan, but it has been Easley, Valentin, Gomez. How about batting your best guys at the top of the order? Is this a difficult concept?

8) Willie Randolph will have shoulder surgery this week, and will have his arm in a sling for several weeks.

7) Joe Morgan can rattle on about how great Milton Bradley is, but why has he played on so many different teams??????? Could it be because he's a pain in the butt? Since 2005, in 2.5 seasons, he's played a total of 192 games. Typcial of Bradley, he told the Royals he had an oblique injury, so they voided the trade that would have sent him to KC. Funny, he looks as if he is pretty healthy tonight.

6) To win, you need guys who want to play and who do play. Bradley is not one of those guys, although he is talented. Put it this way, the A's made a trade with Cincinnati in April, for a guy who had just had Tommy John surgery. He'll take place of Bradley on the '08 A's. Bradley wore out his welcome, just like he did in Los Angeles, Cleveland and will in San Diego.

5) The field at Minute Maid Park looked like a dust bowl in series vs Mets; every time a ball hit the ground this week, a puff of dust popped up. Very unusual for a big league field.

4) When the Astrodome was built in mid-60's, someone told the Astros' owner that you could charge more for tickets that were behind the dugout, which is why, for years, Astros had the longest dugouts in the major leagues.

3) Did you notice the clubhouse at Congressional, where the golf tournament was this weekend? It looked like a freaking palace, with at least four swimming pools behind it. Wonder what the annual fee to belong there is?

2) All you need to know about the Home Run Derby is that a featured part of ESPN's coverage will be Kenny Mayne in a kayak in McCovey Cove. Good night to go to the movies.

1) Watching a lot of games on digital cable, it appears as if there are teams that just hit the wall in last week or so; is it a result of stricter drug (amphetimines) testing, or is it just my perception has changed? There are certain teams and players that seemed to just run out of energy in July........

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[pm530]

Arena Football League - Monday, July 9



Monday, July 9

Arena Football League – Long Sheet


AFL
Long Sheet

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LOS ANGELES (10 - 7) at CHICAGO (12 - 4) - 7/9/2007, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Arena Football League – Write up


AFL
Write-up

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Keep in mind the visiting teams all played last week, and the home teams had a bye.

Los Angeles @ Chicago -- Home side won both series meetings, as Rush routed LA 66-31 in Week 5 (-7.5), in game they led 42-10 at half. Avengers won a rematch 50-47 at Staples five weeks ago (+5). Chicago started season 8-1, then had 2-3 skid, now has won last two games, by 23,27 points. Avengers had five takeaways in win vs Utah last week; their fourth win in last five games. LA has won only two of last six road games, losing by 35,13,24,6 points.

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Arena Football League – Betting Trends


AFL

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Betting Trends
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LOS ANGELES
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Los Angeles is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Chicago

CHICAGO
Chicago is 17-4-1 ATS in its last 22 games
Chicago is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Chicago is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Los Angeles

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[pm530]

Baseball - All Star Game

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MLB Home Run Derby

Baseball fans won't be able to take in any game action on Monday, but at least they'll be able to watch the first event of MLB's All-Star festivities - the 2007 Home Run Derby.

2006 Derby champion Ryan Howard will be back to defend his title this year at San Francisco's AT&T Park; Howard blasted 23 home runs in the contest at PNC Park in Pittsburgh last season. That winning total was well down from 2005, however, as Bobby Abreu knocked 41 balls out the yard at Comerica Park in Detroit to get the win that year.

There will be eight participants in the Derby again this year, with the event being played out over three rounds. In the first round each batter gets 10 outs (a swing that doesn't result in a home run) to hit as many home runs as they can; the top four sluggers then advance to the second round. Round 2 plays out the same as Round 1, with the top two hitters advancing to Round 3. The final two participants then battle for the Derby crown.

Last year Jermaine Dye, Miguel Tejada, Lance Berkman, and Troy Glaus were all knocked out in the first round, with Glaus picking up an event-low one home run. Miguel Cabrera and David Ortiz were eliminated in the second round, and Howard then got past New York Mets third baseman David Wright 5-4 in the last round to take the crown.

So can Howard pull off a repeat on Monday night? Here's a look at the participants . . .

National League

Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies
Howard hit a league-high 58 home runs for the Phillies in his breakout campaign last year, but a slow start to the 2007 season sees him enter the break with only 21 long balls. Heading into the Derby last season the Philly slugger had already hit 28 homers.

Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers
Fielder leads the National League with 29 home runs heading into the break; he hit 28 in 157 games during his rookie campaign last year. Prince's dad, Cecil Fielder, was a three-time participant in this contest, although he never finished better than third place.

Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals
Pujols finished second to Garret Anderson in the Home Run Derby at Chicago's U.S. Cellular Field back in 2003. The Cardinals first baseman belted a career-high 49 home runs last season, and he has hit 16 long balls heading into this season's All-Star Break.

Miguel Cabrera - Florida Marlins
Cabrera was actually scratched from the Marlins' lineup on Sunday afternoon with a shoulder injury, and as a result he'll sit out the Home Run Derby on Monday night. No announcement had been made about who would replace him for the NL at press time.


American League

Vladimir Guerrero - Los Angeles Angels
Guerrero participated in the 2000 Home Run Derby at Atlanta's Turner Field as a member of the Montreal Expos, but he was eliminated in the first round after hitting only two home runs. The Angels outfielder has hit 14 home runs for his team so far in 2007.

Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers
Ordonez will need to change his swing to do well in this contest - although his batting average is north of .360, he's only hit one home run since the beginning of June. Overall the Tigers outfielder has 13 home runs this season, and he hit 24 home runs in 2006.

Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins
The reigning American League MVP warmed up for this event by knocking out three home runs in one game against the Chicago White Sox on Friday. Morneau is currently second in the Junior Circuit with 24 home runs, and he blasted 34 for the Twins in 2006.

Alex Rios - Toronto Blue Jays
Rios hit 17 home runs in 128 games for the Blue Jays last season (a career high), but he's already matched that total heading into this year's All-Star Break. Rios, though, will need to find his home-run swing again - he hasn't gone deep for Toronto since June 25.

Coverage of the 2007 Home Run Derby begins at 8:00pm ET on ESPN on Monday night. The All-Star Game itself will be shown on FOX Tuesday, beginning at 8:00pm ET.

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Going deep: Betting the Home Run Derby

The major league baseball equivalent of the slam dunk contest takes place this Monday night at AT&T Park when baseball's long-ballers face off in the annual home run derby.

And much like the slam dunk contest, the home run derby has its critics. Sports writers complain about the format, coaches are concerned about injuries and big name players don’t want anything to do with it.

Is the derby too long? Can it mess with a player’s swing? Would we rather see guys like Barry, Junior and Big Papi in there?

Maybe.

But to quote the Simpsonized version of Mark McGwire, “Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?”

Dingers it is.

Prince Fielder (Milwaukee Brewers) -125 vs. Ryan Howard -105

You wouldn’t expect a guy named after the pop singer who brought us When Doves Cry to be a favorite in a home run derby. Well, unless that guy was the offspring of former home run king Cecil Fielder.

In his sophomore season, Prince has helped the Milwaukee Brewers to a NL Central-leading 49-38 record by pacing the National League with 29 home runs. Fielder’s swing is in top form heading into Monday’s contests, going yard twice in Saturday’s game against the Nats.

Ryan Howard (Philadelphia Phillies)

The champ is here! Despite the All-Star snub, reigning home run champ Ryan Howard is back to defend his crown. Expect some action in McCovey Cove when the big swinging right-hander steps into the box on Monday night.

Howard has overcome a disappointing, injury-riddled start to the season by clubbing 21 big flies in his first 69 games. While Howard isn’t on pace to match his 58 home runs in 2006, he is heating up as he proved by recording another jack on Saturday against the Rockies. He has hit four home runs at AT&T Park in 39 career at-bats.

Justin Morneau (Minnesota Twins)

At first, Morneau’s entry in the derby seemed like a bad idea. The reigning AL MVP was coming off a chest injury and hadn’t hit a long ball in 13 straight games – and then he put a hat trick on the ChiSox.

Morneau’s three home runs on Friday bumped his total up to 23 and as long as he stays healthy he should surpass last season’s tally of 34.

Vladimir Guerrero (Los Angeles Angels) -125 vs. Prince Fielder -120

Vladimir Guerrero has an ace up his sleeve for this Monday’s home run derby. Angels third base coach Dino Ebel will throw to Guerrero after the slugger asked him to be his personal pitcher. Ebel has derby experience, tossing in a couple minor league versions, and throws to Guerrero in batting practice every day.

Guerrero, who has rejected offers for the derby in the past, jumped at the opportunity to compete this year and told reporters his health and swing are the reasons why. He has 14 home runs this season but hasn’t recorded a four bagger in 12 straight games heading into Sunday. He hit only two home runs at the 2000 All-Star Game when he was a member of the Montreal Expos.

Magglio Ordonez (Detroit Tigers)

No player in the bigs has a hotter bat than Ordonez but his .367 batting average and 70 RBIs aren’t really fueled by power. Ordonez was hesitant to accept the offer to participate in the home run derby after hitting only 13 dingers so far this year. But a phone call from the commish convinced the Tigers All-Star to enter.

Ordonez can look to Bobby Abreu’s 2005 record-setting performance for inspiration. Then a member of the Philadelphia Phillies, Abreu hit an amazing 41 home runs despite being known as an on-base guy and facing competition like David Ortiz, Andruw Jones and Mark Teixeira.

Alex Rios (Toronto Blue Jays)

Rios is one of the brightest up-and-comers in the majors and after missing his All-Star experience last season due to a staph infection, the Blue Jays outfielder wants to make up for it. He was named late Sunday afternoon as one of two final players in the derby.

He leads Toronto in almost all offensive categories, including home runs. His 17 taters this season have already matched his 2006 number and rank him tied for sixth in the American League.

Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals) -110 vs. Prince Fielder -120

Where were you when Albert Pujols put a Brad Lidge watermelon into orbit during the 2005 NLCS? I frantically woke all of my roommates to witness one of baseball’s most memorable whammies. That moonshot became Pujols’ trademark moment and is replayed in most pitchers’ minds whenever ******bert steps in the box.

A slow start to 2007 has Pujols’ average around .300 but his bat is heating up, knocking 16 out of the park this season. He has hit 34 or more home runs in his last six seasons but has only two at AT&T Park over 75 career at-bats.

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MLB All-Star Game props and odds

The All-Star Game is upon us and we finally get to see the best in the business play against each other on a very big stage. You can bet on just about anything in Tuesday night's game, but just to whet your appetite here are some of the props being offered.

Moneyline

American League –123

National League +115

Team to score first in the game

American League –160

National League +130

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?

Yes -125

No –105

Total hits, runs and errors

Over 30 ½ (hits + runs + errors) –105

Under 30 ½ (hits + runs + errors) –125

Alternate runlines

American League – 1 ½ (+200)

National League +1 ½ (+190)

American League –2 ½ (+200)

National League + 2 ½ (-260)

Game totals

Over 10 runs +102

Under 10 runs -112

American League total team runs

Over 5 runs –120

Under 5 runs –110

National League total team runs

Over 5 runs –105

Under 5 runs –125

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MLB All-Star Game player props

2007 MLB All-Star Game player props
Tuesday, July 10, 8:00 PM ET

Player to score the first run in the game:

Ivan Rodriguez +1000
David Ortiz +700
Placido Polanco +1200
Alex Rodriguez +900
Derek Jeter +800
Vladimir Guerrero +700
Magglio Ordonez +800
Ichiro Suzuki +600
Russell Martin +1500
Prince Fielder +700
Chase Utley +1000
David Wright +1000
Jose Reyes +600
Barry Bonds +800
Carlos Beltran +700
Ken Griffey Jr. +900
Field (any other player) +800

Player to record the first RBI of the game:

Ivan Rodriguez +1000
David Ortiz +600
Placido Polanco +1000
Alex Rodriguez +800
Derek Jeter +800
Vladimir Guerrero +900
Magglio Ordonez +800
Ichiro Suzuki +1200
Russell Martin +1000
Prince Fielder +700
Chase Utley +1000
David Wright +900
Jose Reyes +1200
Barry Bonds +1000
Carlos Beltran +800
Ken Griffey Jr. +800
Field (any other player) +700

What will David Ortiz do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +350
Strikeout +400
Flyout +220
Groundout +180
Single +250
Double +500
Triple +1200
Home Run +700
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +1000

What will Alex Rodriguez do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +450
Strikeout +400
Flyout +200
Groundout +180
Single +250
Double +450
Triple +1200
Home Run +700
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +1100

What will Derek Jeter do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +450
Strikeout +400
Flyout +200
Groundout +180
Single +200
Double +500
Triple +1200
Home Run +1000
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +1000

What will Vladimir Guerrero do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +450
Strikeout +400
Flyout +200
Groundout +180
Single +200
Double +500
Triple +1200
Home Run +900
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +1000

What will Magglio Ordonez do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +450
Strikeout +400
Flyout +220
Groundout +180
Single +200
Double +500
Triple +1000
Home Run +1000
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +1000

What will Ichiro Suzuki do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +500
Strikeout +400
Flyout +220
Groundout +180
Single +200
Double +500
Triple +1200
Home Run +1500
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +1000

What will Prince Fielder do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +450
Strikeout +400
Flyout +220
Groundout +180
Single +200
Double +500
Triple +1200
Home Run +800
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +1000

What will Barry Bonds do in his first at bat?

Hit by pitch +2500
Walk +400
Strikeout +450
Flyout +220
Groundout +200
Single +200
Double +500
Triple +1200
Home Run +800
Reach base on an error +2000
Passed ball +600

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Handicapping potential All-Star Game MVPs

Attempting to determine Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game MVP beforehand is no easy task. Thorough research of past MVPs, though, shows certain trends have developed over the years.

One of the aspects that makes predicting the MVP seem difficult is the division of at-bats among the players. A single player rarely sees more than two at-bats a game, but that hasn’t prevented the starters from stealing the spotlight. Nineteen of the last 25 MVPs have earned starting nods so it is highly likely a starter will take home the trophy again this year.

Another trend that has developed has been the prevalence of infielders – or lack of outfielders – winning the award. Nine of the last 12 MVPs have been infielders, including the last three years when Michael Young, Miguel Tejada and Alfonso Soriano (as a second baseman) took home the crown.

The final All-Star tendency, and perhaps the most important, has been the American League’s domination of the Senior Circuit. Aside from the 2002 tie-game debacle in Milwaukee, the AL has won 15 of the last 18 Midsummer Classics, with AL players winning the MVP in all 15 of those contests. If interleague play is any indication, the AL should again topple the NL.

With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at some players who could potentially earn MVP honors:

Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Morneau, the reigning American League MVP, falls into two of the three aforementioned trends. The AL infielder won’t start because David Ortiz was voted in despite rarely playing the field. Ortiz’s lack of defensive skill could work in Morneau’s favor, though, as Ortiz may get pulled early in order to get Morneau’s glove into the game. Morneau has certainly put up numbers worthy of being the starter as he leads all AL first basemen with 20 home runs and 62 RBIs.

Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers: Martin has been lauded as baseball’s best all-around catcher this year and he’ll have his chance to prove it in his first All-Star appearance. He leads NL catchers in batting average, runs scored, RBIs and stolen bases and is second in home runs with nine. Martin starts and plays the infield so falls into two of the three trends. Additionally, he'll be backed up by Atlanta catcher Brian McCann, who hasn’t done enough over the first half to warrant more than one at-bat.

Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox: Lowell could potentially fall into all three of the above trends as long as the recently-injured Alex Rodriguez steps down due to injury. Rodriguez’s absence would elevate Lowell to the American League starter at third base. Another third basemen could potentially replace A-Rod but there aren’t many other candidates worthy of the honor. That could make Lowell the sole third baseman on the American League roster, ensuring him plenty of opportunities to do some damage.

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies: Utley, the National League’s starter at second base, has established himself as the cream of the crop among second basemen in baseball. And it’s really not even close. A look at the other All-Star second basemen shows Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson and Freddy Sanchez. Not exactly a list of household names. Having two backups in Hudson and Sanchez may take away an at-bat or two from Utley, but neither player is really worthy of getting much action.

Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants: Bonds falls into only one of the three recent All-Star Game tendencies but he has additional factors working in his favor. First of all, he is playing in what will likely be his final All-Star Game. Secondly, he is playing in front of his home crowd. Both factors could keep Bonds in the game longer, therefore giving him more opportunities to hit one into McCovey Cove. If he's able to do just that, it would be nearly impossible not to name him MVP, regardless of which team wins.

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A-Rod to play in All-Star game

NEW YORK -- Alex Rodriguez plans to play in the All-Star game despite his strained left hamstring.

''I think, you know, 3.9 million votes, you feel like you have a responsibility to go out there and play,'' the New York Yankees star said Saturday. ''It's been feeling pretty good, and we'll go from there.''

A-Rod said he made his decision after New York's 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Angels in 13 innings on Saturday.

The two-time MVP acknowledged his leg is still not 100 percent, but he'll start at third base for the American League on Tuesday night in San Francisco. He led fan balloting for All-Star spots, getting nearly 3.9 million votes.

Oddsmakers at pinnaclesports.com list the American League as -123 favorites for Tuesday's showdown.

''The game is about the fans, and to get that many votes, you feel like you have a responsibility to go out there and play well,'' he said.

Rodriguez was hurt Monday night when he tripped over the ankle of Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau while hustling to beat a potential double play. He missed his first game of the season Thursday, but an MRI exam came back normal.

The slugger returned to the starting lineup on Friday night, and went 0-for-4 with a walk Saturday. He began the day leading the majors with 29 home runs and 82 RBIs.

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