Capping MLB Easier when you have these facts.

[Spearit]

Baseball Splits – Lefty vs. Righty

Starting pitching is one of the biggest factors when lines are set in baseball but one thing not often taken into consideration is what side of the mound the pitcher is throwing from. Some teams have greater success against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching and vice versa and it is important to take that into consideration when capping games. We have gone through over 40 percent of the season and have some very solid numbers and statistics to look at.

The top five teams in hitting against left-handed pitching:

Detroit Tigers .314

New York Mets .309

Los Angeles Angels .294

Seattle Mariners .288

Boston Red Sox .286


Does this translate into wins? The records of those five teams against left-handed starters:

Detroit Tigers 14-6

New York Mets 11-10

Los Angeles Angels 10-7

Seattle Mariners 13-6

Boston Red Sox 11-10


As you can see, all five teams do in fact have winning records so a great average against southpaws can lead to some nice wins.
On the flip side, here are the five worst teams against left-handed pitching:

Chicago White Sox .218

Arizona Diamondbacks .229

San Francisco Giants .240

Chicago Cubs .245

Philadelphia Phillies .247


Those are some pretty ugly averages and pertaining to records against lefty starters, they are as follows:

Chicago White Sox 5-12

Arizona D-Backs 11-10

San Francisco Giants 10-10

Chicago Cubs 6-11

Philadelphia Phillies 10-17


Overall, it’s not good even though San Francisco and Arizona are sitting around the .500 mark. The same holds true for teams facing right-handed pitching although the records are not as extreme either way. The reason for that is there are more right-handed starters and the law of averages tends to even those out. There are exceptions however.

The best team in baseball against right-handed starters is the Red Sox at 34-15 with the Angels possessing a 35-20 mark as the second best team.

In the National League, both Colorado and Arizona have 30 wins against right-handed starters to lead the circuit. Baltimore and Texas are at the bottom of the pack with just 18 wins followed closely by the Reds with only 19 victories.

Teams fall into these grooves, whether good or bad, and tend to stay in that pattern throughout the year. Trades, injuries, call-ups and demotions can affect the success or failure but for the most part, the streakiness of baseball falls in line here also. Make sure you keep an eye on this the remainder of the season.

[rcmcd]

thanks for the indepth write up as always.

[Spearit]

Team Trends
Updated on Sunday, July 8, 2007 Team Trends
Team Name :- BALTIMORE
Query :- When BALTIMORE team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - 3rd game of a series - Vs AL WEST opponent
SU Result :- 4-9-0
O/U Result :-11-2-0


Team Name :- TEXAS
Query :- When TEXAS team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite - During a day game - Vs Non Division Opponent
SU Result :- 17-4-0
O/U Result :-15-6-0


Team Name :- TEXAS
Query :- When TEXAS team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite - During a day game - 3rd game of a series
SU Result :- 16-4-0
O/U Result :-13-7-0


Team Name :- TEXAS
Query :- When TEXAS team played as a home team - During the 2007 season - During a day game
SU Result :- 6-5-0
O/U Result :-2-8-1


Team Name :- TEXAS
Query :- When TEXAS team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - During a day game
SU Result :- 12-2-0
O/U Result :-11-3-0


Team Name :- KANSAS CITY
Query :- When KANSAS CITY team Played as home team as a Underdog - During the 2007 season - Vs. Left handed pitchers
SU Result :- 3-9-0
O/U Result :-10-2-0


Team Name :- KANSAS CITY
Query :- When KANSAS CITY team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Playing on Sunday
SU Result :- 4-6-0
O/U Result :-8-2-0


Team Name :- MINNESOTA
Query :- When MINNESOTA team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - During a day game - Total is 9.5
SU Result :- 6-4-0
O/U Result :-1-9-0


Team Name :- MINNESOTA
Query :- When MINNESOTA team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog - Total is 9.5 - During a day game
SU Result :- 6-4-0
O/U Result :-1-9-0


Team Name :- BOSTON
Query :- When BOSTON team Played as road team as a Favorite - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - During the 2007 season
SU Result :- 9-2-0
O/U Result :-5-6-0


Team Name :- NY YANKEES
Query :- When NY YANKEES team played as a home team - Playing on Sunday - During the month of July
SU Result :- 19-4-0
O/U Result :-11-12-0


Team Name :- NY YANKEES
Query :- When NY YANKEES team played as a home team - During the month of July - Playing on Sunday
SU Result :- 19-4-0
O/U Result :-11-12-0


Team Name :- NY YANKEES
Query :- When NY YANKEES team played as a -180 to -200 home Favorite - During a day game - 3rd game of a series
SU Result :- 23-5-0
O/U Result :-12-14-2


Team Name :- ATLANTA
Query :- When ATLANTA team Played as road team as a Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - During the 2007 season
SU Result :- 4-7-0
O/U Result :-9-2-0


Team Name :- FLORIDA
Query :- When FLORIDA team Played as road team as a Underdog - Vs. Left handed pitchers - During the 2007 season
SU Result :- 6-4-0
O/U Result :-2-8-0


Team Name :- PHILADELPHIA
Query :- When PHILADELPHIA team Played as road team as a Underdog - Total is between 10.5 to 11.0 - During a day game
SU Result :- 5-5-0
O/U Result :-8-2-0


Team Name :- PHILADELPHIA
Query :- When PHILADELPHIA team Played as road team as a Underdog - During a day game - Total is between 10.5 to 11.0
SU Result :- 5-5-0
O/U Result :-8-2-0


Team Name :- ST LOUIS
Query :- When ST LOUIS team played as a home team - During the 2007 season - Vs. Left handed pitchers
SU Result :- 3-9-0
O/U Result :-2-9-1


Team Name :- ST LOUIS
Query :- When ST LOUIS team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog - Vs NL Conference - Vs NL WEST opponent
SU Result :- 10-8-0
O/U Result :-13-3-2


Team Name :- HOUSTON
Query :- When HOUSTON team played as a home team - Playing on Sunday - Total is 9.5
SU Result :- 14-3-0
O/U Result :-12-5-0


Team Name :- HOUSTON
Query :- When HOUSTON team Played as home team as a Favorite - Playing on Sunday - Total is 9.5
SU Result :- 13-3-0
O/U Result :-11-5-0


Team Name :- CINCINNATI
Query :- When CINCINNATI team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Playing on Sunday
SU Result :- 4-6-0
O/U Result :-8-2-0


Team Name :- ARIZONA
Query :- When ARIZONA team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - Vs. Right handed pitchers
SU Result :- 12-2-0
O/U Result :-9-5-0

[myrjimmy3]

thanks for this a bunch spear where can i get the battin average stats for all teams vs. leftys?

[Kaptain]

myrjimmy

thanks for this a bunch spear where can i get the battin average stats for all teams vs. leftys?

Under MLB Matchups.....kaptain---full of good info, it's the site I use for stats.....kapt

It's also right here in this Forum....go to Main Menus, click on MLB Matchups, team by team, scroll down, and towards the bottom it tells you each teams record against righties/lefties, home/away, etc.......kapt

[Kaptain]

On the flip side, here are the five worst teams against left-handed pitching:

Chicago White Sox .218

Arizona Diamondbacks .229

San Francisco Giants .240

Chicago Cubs .245

Philadelphia Phillies .247

Spearit----you would think the Managers should also know this, yet check it out....All these opposing teams are starting righties......Makes you wonder why they pay these Managers doesn't it....kaptain

[Gookis]

I always look at lefty starters, and how the team thet are facing does against them. I also use this for UNDERS as well. It worked pretty well for me earlier in the year, and cooled off some as of late.

[Kaptain]

Gookis

I always look at lefty starters, and how the team thet are facing does against them. I also use this for UNDERS as well. It worked pretty well for me earlier in the year, and cooled off some as of late.

I know what you mean----it's one of the attributes I use hen capping, but you know that, I know that, Spearit, and many others know that, seems like a Mgr would know, and plan his starting pitching with Lefties, against teams that don't do well against lefties....Geez---they're getting enough money to do some thinking....don't you think....kapt

[Spearit]

Kapt----------------

Betting for and Against Left-Handed Pitching.

Facing left-handed pitchers is often an uncomfortable experience for any batter for many reasons

Facing left-handed pitchers is often an uncomfortable experience for any batter for many reasons. Because lefty’s are a more rare group, the hitter is less familiar having the ball come from a different angle, with a different spin. Essentially, everything the opposite of what they’re accustomed to. Plus, if you take into consideration your typical left hander is thought to be more eccentric, and in the social sense more likely to be schizophrenic, alcoholic, delinquent, dyslexic, and have more mental disabilities, having a bat for one’s self preservation is prudent.

By no means does this mean batting against left-handed pitchers is an impossible task, quite the contrary. Lefty pitchers can hang around longer in the big leagues being a limited and valued commodity like Jessie Orosco. For every Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia who has pitched brilliantly for years, there are three that are similar to Casey Fossum, Zack Duke and Wandy Rodriguez chewing up a few innings and filling a slot as a left hand hurler.

Seattle has done an outstanding job taking on lefties this season with a 14-6 record, adding +10.4 units of profit, the best in the big leagues. Ichiro Susuki could hit a pitcher if he alternated throwing left or right-handed; however the rest of the lineup has strong hitters like Adrian Beltre, Kenji Johjima, Raul Ibanez and power hitting Richie Sexson. Throw in switch-hitter Jose Vidro and this group has been laying the lumber to lefthanders.

The Dodgers can match the Mariners for winning percentage and Detroit can actually better it with 16-6 mark, coming up just shy on the units at +9.8. The Tigers being in this gathering is no surprise since they hit well against everyone and pound the horsehide for 6.6 runs a game in 22 encounters. The L.A. Dodgers may lack power, nevertheless they just rip base hits one after the other with Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal, Jeff Kent and even LHB Luis Gonzalez.

Other teams in baseball are like fish in a barrel ready to taken out easily facing portsiders. Cincinnati and Philadelphia are two of the worst teams facing the pitches of left-handed hurlers. The Reds are 10-19 and the Phillies 10-18, leaving plenty of room for improvement. Granted Cincinnati problems go deeper than the ability to score runs against LH pitchers, still the fact remains they have poorer winning percentage against lefties then right-handed throwers.(.344 vs. .404) Philadelphia’s conundrum is easier to understand, given the make-up of the roster. Batting in the third and fourth spots for the Phils are Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Both hit from the left side of the batters box and are significant reasons why the Phillies score 5.5 RPG against RH pitchers. Unfortunately they are frequently to blame when Philadelphia manufactures only 4.4 RPG and nobody else in the batter order helps them out, leading to -8.2 units lost in these situations.

While this next team makes perfect sense, it still tough to fathom how the mighty have fallen in less than two seasons. The Chicago White Sox were the defending World Series champions just a season ago and now rank 29th in runs scored this season. Thus it is not a stretch to believe they are last in runs scored against left-hand pitchers at a pallid 3.5 RPG. Table-setter Scott Podsednik has been injured the vast majority of the season, and Jim Thome has been in and out as the DH, yet the remaining core players are all right hand hitters who have done next to nothing in putting together 6-14 record for a hefty loss of -9.9 units.

With speaking skills coming from the left region of the brain, and motor skills like throwing and swinging a bat come from the right area of the brain, a bettor would be out of his mind to not know and understand the importance of how left-handed pitchers affect particular teams and not take advantage of them when opportunities exist.

[Kaptain]

I agree with ya Spearit, it's the damn dumb ass managers that I'm talking about.....Seems to be they would be looking for every advantage they could find.....Laptops i the dugout with all the data they need.....Do the managers not look at this attribute was my concern........kaptain

If I'm gonna play a team that bats 276 against righties, and 241 against lefties, I'm damn sure gonna see to it that a Leftie starts against em, or at least a bevy of Leftie Relievers.......

[bryce]

Thanks for the write up Spear!! Very informative.

[Spearit]

Lefty lovers

1. Toronto Blue Jays (.836 OPS vs. LHP, .729 OPS vs. RHP, +.107 OPS vs. LHP)

It’s not a surprise that right-handed sluggers like Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Frank Thomas and Troy Glaus prefer to face southpaws. It is surprising, however, that quiet middle infielders Aaron Hill and John McDonald have combined to hit .344 and slug .539 against left-handers.

2. San Diego Padres (.773, .676, +.097 vs. LHP)

San Diego's central strengths are its starting rotation and its bullpen. The unimpressive offensive numbers, though, are almost entirely based on the team’s inability to hit right-handed pitching. The Padres’ bats actually rank in the upper half of the National League against lefties.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (.853, .765, +.093 vs. LHP)

Milwaukee’s biggest slugger, Prince Fielder, is the exception to the rule with the Brew Crew when he tees off on right-handers. It’s the Brewers’ lesser lights who make the team the NL’s most dangerous against southpaws, led by rookie Ryan Braun and his incredible .545 average and 1.295 slugging percentage.

Looking for Mr. Right(handed)

1. New York Yankees (.734, .823, +.089 vs. RHP)

The Yanks’ .823 OPS against righties leads MLB, surprising considering New York’s two highest-profile players both swing from the right side of the plate. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, however, defy expectations and have combined to hit .335 and slug .586 against right-handed pitchers in 2007.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (.659, .741, +.082 vs. RHP)

The D-Backs are a mirror-image of the Padres. It’s not like they pound right-handers into submission, they’re simply so atrocious against southpaws that they can't help but land on this list. Arizona is hitting only .228 against left-handers.

3. Cincinnati Reds (.709, .778, +.069 vs. RHP)

The Reds have hit 95 home runs against right-handed pitching, easily the most in MLB. Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr. and Josh Hamilton have hit 49 of those bombs in just 535 combined at bats, but it should be noted that Hamilton recently went on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained wrist.

Makes no difference

1. San Francisco Giants (.700, .704, +.004 vs. RHP)

The Giants are simply bad against pitchers of either hand. Barry Bonds’ on-base percentage against left-handers and right-handers is virtually identical, proving that pitchers of both hands can throw intentional walks equally well.

2. Three-way tie with a variance of +.009 vs. RHP

The Colorado Rockies are the exception here, as they hit both southpaws and righties equally well. The Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox, on the other hand, combine with the Giants on this list to suggest that crap lineups produce crap numbers no matter what the opposing team throws at them, nor the hand with which they throw it.

[Spearit]

Get em Today!!

[Spearit]

Money Line vs. Run Line Wagering
For many bettors not familiar with the run line aspects of baseball wagering, it is like that slot machine at the casino that offers numerous ways to win. The problem is you have put your money in to figure it out and by the time you do you might have lost a significant chunk. Baseball betting is unique in many respects compared to other sports because the money line wager allows the bettor to just have his selected team win the game with no other complications. As opposed to other sports, the money line is a tolerable number in most cases with the vast majority of the games to be played at -200 or less to win at +100 if you are betting the favorites. In football or basketball you seldom see such numbers that low.

The first thing to understand about the run line, it is nothing more than a point spread like in other sports. You either have to cover it as a favorite or take advantage of the underdog position with the “points” or in this case the runs. For those that like the risk of large favorites this can be an intriguing option to “buy down”.

The New York Yankees are the classic example of this thought process. Despite a recent hot streak that has gotten them to just a few games over .500, they have been a -200 favorite an amazing 20 times this season. Oddsmakers like those at Bookmaker.com or others have placed odds on the Yankees to win by 66.7 percent of higher almost one-fifth of the time.

This explains why New York is one of the worst bets in major league baseball, especially this season, being consistently in the bottom three of units lost. If you follow the logic, the Yankees being favored anywhere from -200 to -310 would mean they would have a 66.7 percent to 76 percent chance of winning the 20 aforementioned games. The Yankees are 14-6 in these contests, placing them right about at the correct number of winning 70 percent. Herein lies the problem.

Despite winning 70 percent of games played in a very favorable position, someone wagering on them would have lost -1.25 units. Taking the next step, does playing the run line in these exact same situations help? One of the losses for New York had them as a -220 choice against Toronto on July 19. Converting them from a -220 favorite on the money line to a -135 betting choice on the run line (-1.5) holds some merit in reducing risk, saving .85 units. However reducing risk and winning are not necessarily related.

In the 20 encounters, exactly five ended up being one run outcomes, which is about the norm at 25 percent. Because the run line is 1.5 runs, a normal percentage of games will fall into just winning by a single run causing more losses betting on favorites. For the sake of argument we’ll throw out betting on Yankees on the run line at -310 money line favorites, since the baseball betting police could arrest you for reckless conduct. Disregarding the largest Yankees favorite role, if you converted all the Bronx Bombers large favorite roles to run line your record would fall to 11-8 and have an even worse -1.65 units lost record.

This is not to say the run line is not a solid wager if used correctly. Let’s take July 12 as an example. New York traveled to Tampa Bay after taking a series against the L.A. Angels at Yankees Stadium. The Yanks are a -140 money line favorite who often has struggled playing at the Devil Rays. Andy Pettitte is the starting pitcher, he is 12-1 against Tampa Bay. In this case based on prior history, there is a high probability New York will win this game. With the D-Rays horrible bullpen, added opportunities exist for the Yankees line-up to score runs. Taking them off the money line and converting to the run line adds value on both sides. As opposed to the ML wager, you give 1.5 runs by taking the Yankees on the run line, for a potential payout of +105 compared to +100 assuming they win by 2 or more runs. While that is not an earth shattering number, it’s additional profit. On the other side if Tampa Bay wins the game, you have cut potential loss from -140 down to -100 saving yourself 40 percent on a single wager. New York won the game 7-3.

Betting road teams on the run line that are favored, instead of home teams is sharp reasoning with real common sense backed up behind it. The road team will always have nine innings to bat and score runs in a regulation game. If the home team leads by one run after 8 innings, your only chance to win is a blown save by the home team with the game going into extra innings. Even if this occurs, the road team can conceivably score an unlimited amount of runs, while the home team theoretically needs to score one more then the opposing team to win in extra frames.

In considering run line wagering, a couple of numbers you should know. Since the turn of the century between 26-30 percent of all games are decided by a single run depending on the year. Home favorites win by one run just over 18 percent of the time and road favorites win by one run a little under 12 percent. The upside is the largest grouping of numbers in baseball fall toward the home/road favorites winning by 2 or more runs at slightly better then 41 percent.

Run line wagering isn’t for everyone, nonetheless does have its place if used wisely. This is a smart betting tool to add to one’s arsenal to increase the number of units in an individuals account.

[Spearit]

How to build an empire betting baseball's umpires

These are the guys who spend the entire game sweating in the heat, wearing a mask, snuggled tightly behind another man. Their only face time is when infuriated managers go nose-to-nose with them, spitting while they yell, kicking dirt because they don’t like the size of their strike zone.

But if you’re one of the few bettors that factor umpire matchups into your everyday wagering then you’ve got nothing but love for these faceless blue-shirted gold mines.

“One of the bigger problems is that we do so many sports we don't have too much time to concentrate on one particular game,” says John Avello, the director of race and sports operations for Wynn Las Vegas. “If I was (betting) professionally, I would do one sport and pick my positive spots. And if I’m going to handicap a baseball game, you need to know the ump's strike zone.”

MLB's Top Under Umpires2007 Over/Under Records
Ed Rapuano 7-17-1
Randy Marsh 10-16-1
Tim McClelland 8-15-3
Lazaro Diaz 10-15-0
Larry Poncino 8-15-1
Rob Drake 10-14-1

The trickiest thing about factoring in plate umpires is that you can only do it after Game 1 of a series. Until that point bettors don’t know the crew’s rotation, a sequence which goes in a clockwork motion, sending Game 1’s first-base ump to home for Game 2 and moving the initial home plate ump to third base. Once you’ve established that – let the games begin.

A classic case of an umpire whose strike zone can have an effect on games is 20-year veteran John Hirschbeck, better known for getting spat on by then-Baltimore Oriole Roberto Alomar in 1996. Hirschbeck is a favorite of total bettors because his large strike zone helps keep scores down when he’s behind home plate.

As of August 13 this year, Hirschbeck has an 8-8 over/under record. Since 1999, however, the over/under record for his games is 103-153.

“John Hirschbeck is known as the strongest under ump that there is, but his value is starting to lose steam,” “But make no mistake, there’s no square money in baseball. When the sharp bettors track this info and those umps go on a run, it takes a while (for books) to adjust to this.”

Another umpire with a notable total trend is 17-year veteran Ed Rapuano, who has a 7-17-1 over/under record this season. Last year Rapuano finished with a 12-23-1 over/under record and has only favored the over in one of his last five seasons going 17-16-2 in 2004.

Rapuano has kept his strikeout percentage (the percent of total pitches called strikes) around 62 percent over those five seasons while Hirschbeck hasn’t let his drop below 62.81 since 2000. This year, Hirschbeck is up to 64.68 percent, the kind of stat wise guys look for when capping the officiating crew.

Cappers also search for pitcher/umpire matchups that can work to their advantage when playing the total. One such situation is when two pitchers who have struggled to find the strike zone - take Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera or the Oakland Athletics’ Chad Gaudin for example - face off in a game in which an umpire has a high or low strike percentage.

If the ump has a lower strike percentage, the pitchers will have a tough time finding his narrow strike zone. That forces them to throw more balls down the center of the plate, which should lead to more hits and a possible over.

On the other hand, if the struggling hurlers are lucky enough to get an umpire like Doug Eddings behind home plate, they might find a more inviting strike zone. Eddings' higher 65.5 strike percentage may mean a pitcher's control problems could be offset by those extra inches on the corners. This could keep the number of hits down and the score low.

“The type of matchup I might look for is, say, a guy with a generous strike zone would favor a pitcher like Greg Maddux who likes to paint the corners,” . “There is some value in looking for matchups like this.”

Most handicappers who use umpire stats do so with total plays in mind, but there is value in factoring in these numbers when playing sides. Paying attention to an umpire’s home/away record can give insight into a team’s worth at home or on the road.

No one is blaming the major league’s officials for rooting for the home team like the classic seventh-inning stretch song says, but there are some trends that suggest home field advantage can impact the way the umpires call the game.

“It is a good idea to monitor the record of home teams behind certain umpires as certain home crowds can be influential no matter how impartial one intends to be,” “An umpire who has a strong record for home teams is not enough to justify making a pick on the home team, but it can make you think twice about taking that road team.”

2007's Top Home UmpiresHome/Away Records (Units)
Chris Guccione 19-9 (7.93)
Rob Drake 18-7 (9.90)
Tim Timmons 18-6 (11.12)
Angel Hernandez 18-7 (10.09)
Larry Vanover 18-8 (8.48)
Tim McClelland 17-9 (5.78)

Wally Bell, who was part of last year’s World Series crew, has a one-sided 65-29 home/away record over the past three seasons (15-8 in 2007) which has earned home moneyline bettors 31.31 units since 2005 (if you wagered $100 on each of those games you would be up $3,131).

Charismatic home plate umpire Tim Timmons leads big league officials with an 18-6 home/away differential this season and has favored the home teams over the past three years, posting a 60-34 home/away record. This has translated into 22 units for home-field backers.

Umpires have also been known to give veteran players the benefit of the doubt when a call is up in the air. Skilled hitters like Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez can shrink an ump's strike zone while seasoned pitchers like Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens can pick around the zone and receive some favorable yet questionable calls.

“It certainly does happen, but (it’s) … not going to gain enough to make a significant difference that is worth translating into meaningful handicapping data,”

“It is more important to monitor an umpire's style and his tendencies with the horizontal zone and the vertical zone and compare how the style of the starting pitcher would benefit or suffer in a game called in that manner.”