Thursday Trends and Indexes 06/21

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Thursday, June 21

Good Luck on day #172 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Thursday

-- Royals are 9-6 in interleague play, 20-38 vs AL teams.

-- Seattle has lost four games in standings to the Angels in interleague play. They've also lost four games to the A's.

-- Mets are 5-7 vs AL teams, just like they were last year. It is unfathomable that Mets are 18-19 at home this season.

-- Colorado is a good ballclub and they're in fourth place in NL West; they're 4-1 vs Boston, Bronx in last nine days.

-- Rocco Baldelli actually played in a AAA game this week, but he tweaked the hamstring again, and may be on the DL for another 2-6 weeks. He has to be related to Carl Pavano.

-- Sadly for my fantasy team, Mark Teixeira isn't exactly in a hurry to come back from his quad injury. Eligible to play on Sunday, he isn't scheduled back until after All-Star break. Funny how guys on losing teams take their time in rehab.

[pm530]

Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Worst baserunning play I've seen in long time; bottom of 10th in St Louis last night, game tied 6-6. Cardinals have guy on 2nd, one out. Miles is up; he is 5-5 for game, and Pujols is up next, so you figure Cards have good chance of scoring to win the game. Well, Taguchi got picked off. Wasn't close. It is an understatement to say his manager wasn't happy.

12) Taguchi then came up with bags full, one out in home half of 12th inning, and struck out on three pitches. Not his finest hour. Game ended at 1:30am, when Ludwick homered in 14th to win game, atoning for bases loaded strikeout in the ninth. Royals' de la Rosa, who is starting pitcher in their next game, gave up the game-winning tater, facing just the one batter.

11) Jeff Weaver tossed a shutout and lowered his ERA to an astronomical 8.56. Still puzzled as to why he left the Cardinals.

10) Mets started season 11-3 vs lefthanded pitchers. They've now lost their last eight games vs southpaw starters.

9) Milwaukee Brewers are 25-12 at Miller Park, are jogging to a title in NL Central. Doesn't appear that any of awful clubs in that division can even challenge them. Good for the Brewers.

8) Last Brewer to start an All-Star Game was Paul Molitor, at 2B for the '88 AL All-Stars. Molitor played one game at 2B in 1988; he played 105 games at 3B, 49 as the Brewers' DH.

7) Want to read a good story? Something that will make you feel good about sports and the influence it can have? Check out this story on espn.com. Uplifting stuff.

6) Astros trailed Angels 5-4 in bottom of 7th, LA has two on with two out, third base open, with Guerrero up. You HAVE TO WALK HIM in this spot, he is such a good hitter. But, no the Astros pitch to him, and he hits a home run that landed somewhere between Irvine and Fullerton. Horrible non-move.

5) New Mexico State is looking for hoop coach after they lost Reggie Theus, in his inevitable jump to NBA. Now let's put some pieces of this puzzle together. Maloofs own casinos out in Vegas, Theus is one of UNLV's greatest players, and Kings are probably moving, if they don't get a new arena, which is a longshot, at this point. The Las Vegas Kings, anyone?

4) All of which would make Sacramento an attractive spot for a team looking to move (Seattle?) Would be weird for fans in Sacramento, who love their Kings and support the team very well, but business is business, from what I am told. Very hard to imagine Sacramento not having an NBA franchise.

3) By the way, just for historical purposes, Kings' franchise is one of most nomadic in all of pro sports; they started out as Rochester Royals, winning NBA title in '51, then became the Cincinnati Royals, then the Kansas City Kings, and later, the Kansas City-Omaha Kings, before they found Sacramento to be an avid NBA city. Lot of good it is doing them.

2) Quick take on umpires. Here are listings of umpires, as far as who has umped lot of games that went over or under.......

Over umpires-- Nauert (over 9-3), Davidson (11-5), Barksdale/ West (both 10-4), O'Nora/Reynolds (both 8-4).

Under umpires-- Nelson/Wolf (both 10-3 under), Meals (9-3), Poncino/Reed (both 9-4), Drake (10-4), Marsh (10-5).

1) I found this the other day; friend of mine sent it to me while back. It is the world's shortest fairy tale................

Once upon a time, a guy asked his girlfriend to marry him.

The girl looked at him and said, "No."

The guy lived happily ever after, playing golf whenever and wherever he wanted.

THE END

[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


Thursday, June 21

Orlando (8-7) @ Philadelphia (7-8) -- Predators lost three of their last four games; they're 4-3 on road, with losses by 3,21,7 points. Soul won first four games, lost next six, and now is 3-2 in last five contests-- last six Philly games all went over the total. Soul is 2-4 in last six home games. Orlando's last four opponents all scored 54+ points; Philly's last four foes all scored 53 or more points.

[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Thursday, June 21

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ORLANDO (8 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 8) - 6/21/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 2-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 2-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Thursday, June 21

AL owns 111-94 lead for season so far in interleague tilts, after a bounceback 10-4 night for American League Wednesday.

Hot Pitchers
-- Colorado won last five Lopez starts, scoring 38 runs.
-- Bedard has 2.87 RA in his last seven starts, but Orioles lost six of the seven games.
-- Toronto won last six Marcum starts (3-0, 2.78).

Cold Pitchers
-- Lilly has 6.56 RA in his last five road starts. Padilla is 1-2, 10.50 in his last four starts.
-- Clemens is 1-1, 3.65 in first two starts, throwing 108 pitches in both games.
-- Wells is 1-1, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Billingsley is making first start of year for Dodgers; last year, he was 7-4, 3.60 in 16 starts. This season, he's 4-0, 3.09 in 23 relief appearances for the Dodgers.
-- Van Benschoten lost his first start 6-1 to White Sox, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP. Hernandez is 0-2, 6.84 in his last two starts.


Totals
-- Eight of last twelve Texas games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven games at Coors Field went over the total, but Bronx scored two runs in first two series games.
-- Under is 14-9 in Padres' last twenty-three home games.
-- Five of last six Toronto games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Pittsburgh road games.


Hot Teams
-- Colorado won six of last seven games, scoring 54 runs. Bronx won eleven of its last fourteen games, but lost first two games in this series, scoring one run in each game. .
-- San Diego won five of its last seven games.
-- Toronto is 13-8 in its last twenty-one home games.

Cold Teams
-- Rangers are 9-17 in their last twenty-six games. Cubs are 1-3 in their last four games.
-- Dodgers are 6-9 in their last fifteen road games.
-- Orioles lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Seattle lost six of their last seven games. Pirates lost four of their last five road games.

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Thursday, June 21

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Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers (2:05 PM ET)
Chicago's Ted Lilly is an even 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 12 career outings against Texas. SLIGHT EDGE: UNDER
Lilly picked up his fifth win of the season in his last start, throwing eight strong innings in a 4-1 home victory over San Diego. The Cubs had lost his previous four starts, including three straight on the road. SLIGHT EDGE: RANGERS
Rangers right-hander Vicente Padilla is 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 14 career games against the Cubs. SLIGHT EDGE: CUBS
Padillas has allowed 23 hits in his last 9 2/3 innings of work, including three home runs. EDGE: OVER
The Cubs are 1-4 in Lilly's last five starts versus a team with a losing record.



New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies (3:05 PM ET)
Yankees right-hander Roger Clemens is a perfect 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA in four career starts against the Rockies. EDGE: YANKEES
Clemens has pitched relatively well in his first two starts this season, allowing five runs and 12 hits over 12 1/3 innings while striking out 15 batters. SLIGHT EDGE: YANKEES
Colorado's Rodrigo Lopez is a perfect 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in five home starts this season. The Rockies have supplied Lopez with 48 runs of support at Coors Field. BIG EDGE: ROCKIES & OVER
Lopez is 7-8 with a 6.02 ERA in 23 career games against the Yankees. He's allowed 30 home runs in 121 innings against the Bronx Bombers. EDGE: YANKEES & OVER
The UNDER is 5-1 in Clemens' last six interleague starts.



Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres (3:35 PM ET)
Orioles starter Erik Bedard is 3-1 with a 4.21 ERA in eight road starts this season. His earned-run-average on the road is inflated compared to his 2.95 ERA at Camden Yards. SLIGHT EDGE: ORIOLES & OVER
Baltimore has lost six of Bedard's last seven starts, mainly because the offense has managed to score over three runs just once over that span. EDGE: UNDER
Despite picking up just once victory at home this season, San Diego left-hander David Wells has an excellent 2.95 ERA at Petco Park. EDGE: UNDER
Wells is 17-12 with a 3.90 ERA in 45 career games against Baltimore. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES
The Paders are 1-4 in Wells' last five interleague starts.


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[pm530]

MLB
MLB Betting Notes


Thursday, June 21

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Thursday’s MLB betting notes


Damon’s late cameos

Johnny Damon’s season has been hindered by what the New York Yankees term a mild abdominal strain that limits him when he swings the bat.

The Yankees have managed to keep him in the lineup by making him designated hitter for the past few weeks, but his appearances will be limited this week during two interleague series on the road.

Damon did not start Tuesday night against the Rockies but he did enter the game in the bottom of the seventh as a defensive replacement at first base.

The trend that sees Damon coming in late in games is expected to continue in tonight’s series finale against the Rockies and through this weekend’s series against the San Francisco Giants.

Damon is batting .255 with 4 home runs and 23 RBIs this season.


Fans packed a ‘mile high’ to see Yanks

All seats at Colorado's Coors Field are painted green except for one row in the third deck which represents a mile's distance above sea level. That ring of seats has been visible at every game this season, except for the two games against the Yankees this week.

The arrival of the Bronx Bombers has seen the Colorado Rockies nearly double their average attendance, selling out the park with a crowd of 48,077.

For three games this week the Rockies can relive the club's infancy in the 1990s, when they led the majors in attendance in each of their first seven seasons. Since then, over the past seven seasons, they've finished no better than fourth place in the category.

With the Rockies’ Rodrigo Lopez (3-0, 2.90 ERA) facing veteran Roger Clemens (1-1, 3.65 ERA) on the mound, Thursday night’s series finale is expected to be another sellout. The Yankees are –178 favorites with the total set at 10½.


Colletti can’t catch a break

The L.A. Dodgers are like an old beat-up car at the moment; as soon as you fix one problem, something else goes terribly wrong. General manager Tony Colletti has learned that the hard way in the past few weeks.

Colletti addressed the Dodgers' struggling offense last week – they are 12th in the NL with a .261 batting average – by replacing hitting coach Eddie Murray with Bill Mueller.

Then L.A. began this week by losing two pitchers to injury, starter Jason Schmidt (1-4, 6.31 ERA) and reliever Yhency Brazoban. Both will undergo shoulder surgery and could be out for the season.

"It's part of the game and part of the way it goes," Colletti told MLB.com. "All we can do is be as prepared to overcome it as we can. That was the thought process as we put together the pitching staff, to have as much depth as we can."

At least the offense has shown signs of improvement. Los Angeles hammered home 10 runs in Tuesday night’s win against Toronto. The Dodgers are +122 underdogs to take Thursday’s series finale at Toronto, with Chad Billingsley (4-0, 3.09 ERA) on the mound.


First-inning woes

The Seattle Mariners are the holders of an unwanted record; they rank last in baseball in the number of runs given up in the first inning, with 68.

The Mariners have allowed their opposition to score in the first in four of their last five games. In the past three games alone they have given up a total of 8 runs in the first, contributing to a six-game losing streak.

After a whopping 11 games on the road, even a return to Safeco Field on Tuesday failed to stop the rot. Seattle gave up two runs in the first inning to Pittsburgh and went on to lose 5-3.

Felix Hernandez (3-4, 4.58 ERA) goes to the mound with Seattle as –180 favorites in the final game of the Pirates series. Mariners fans will be praying he can get through the first inning unscathed.


Ump and over

The over looks an attractive bet for Thursday's series finale between the San Diego Padres and the Baltimore Orioles after a 12-6 blowout win for San Diego on Tuesday.

The umpire for Thursday’s game makes an over bet even more enticing. In Bruce Froemming’s last seven games behind home plate the over is 5-2. Also, in his last 13 games behind home plate with Baltimore playing, the over is 10-3.

The game features a pitching matchup between Erik Bedard (4-4, 3.64 ERA) and David Wells (3-4, 4.86 ERA). San Diego is –117 favorites with the total set 7½.


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[pm530]

MLB
Thoughts on One Run Games


One of the best indicators for changes in fortune in major league baseball is a team's won-lost record in one-run games. Results in these virtual coin flips are greatly influenced by luck. Studies have shown that for years, even though TV announcers are always saying stuff like:

Certain teams "know" how to win close games.
Clutch ability determines who wins close games.
Bullpen quality determines who wins close games.
Champions find a way to win the close ones.
There's a smidgen of truth to all of those, but that smidgen has been blown way out of proportion over the years because players and former players don't acknowledge how much luck is really involved. Here are quick rebuttals to those four explanations.

If certain teams "knew" how to win close games, they would do it every year. Nobody wins an inordinate percentage of close games over large samples.

If clutch ability determined who won close games, then the same teams would be winning them all the time. That doesn't happen when you study samples of a few hundred games and more.

Bullpens blow hot and cold just like the rest of baseball. It is true that a bullpen with a great ERA is likely to have a great record in close games. Nobody's mastered yet how to always have a great bullpen!

What separates champions from everyone else is the ability to win blowouts, not the ability to win close games. This has always been true in all sports. Champions will be slightly better than average in close games, but WAY better than average in blowouts. If you don't believe me, look it up in any sport over its full history.

What that leaves us with is this:

MLB teams who currently have great records in one-run games are catching some breaks, and are about to fall back to earth. MLB teams who currently have bad records in one run games are suffering from bad luck, and have better win potential in the future than you realize.

Let's look at some examples. Posted records were accurate heading into this past weekend.

Best one-run teams:
Arizona: 17-8
LA Dodgers: 16-7
Boston: 11-6

These three teams have had their won-lost records most influenced by good fortune in close games of the 30 major league entries. Don't get me wrong, they're all good teams. But they're not quite as good as you're thinking. All three are likely to be overpriced in terms of their true win potential in the next several weeks. Your newspaper standings are overstating their excellence, as are the TV announcers singing their praises.

Right now we've got a tight three-team race in the NL West. Arizona and Los Angeles have been catching breaks in close games, while the San Diego Padres haven't (11-14 heading into the weekend). Here's what the standings would look like if only decisions of two-runs or more were counted:

Non-nailbiter records (thru' last Friday):
San Diego: 27-14
LA Dodgers: 22-21
Arizona: 21-22

Changes your perspective just a bit doesn't it? The Dodgers and Diamondbacks are likely to fall back to earth a bit. The math says San Diego is the clear class of the division when that happens.

Let's go to the other end of the spectrum and look at the worst one-run teams this year.

Worst one-run teams:
Baltimore: 6-15
Chicago Cubs: 6-13
NY Yankees: 4-10
Philadelphia: 4-10

Three teams jump out at me. The Cubs, Yankees and Phillies are all squads who were hoping to contend for divisional championships this year. If not for one-run games, all would be doing that right now!

The Yankees are 29-22 in non-nailbiters, which is just a few games behind what Boston is doing when you throw out their strong one-run record (31-18). The main reason we don't have a tighter pennant race right now between the superpowers is because the Yanks have struggled in close games. There's still plenty of time for them to turn it around and make a run at the top.

The Cubs are 25-20 in games with bigger final margins, which is better percentage-wise than the 26-23 record posted by first place Milwaukee in that category. The Cubs WOULD be a first-place team if not for bad luck in close games.

The Phillies are 31-22 once you throw out the nailbiter record. That's better than the Yankees! It's also better than the NY Mets, who are 29-24 in that category. The Phils would also be a first place team in their division if they had caught more breaks in close games.

This is why I pay so much attention to this statistic. Once you know how to handle it, you get a much better sense of how teams really stand in their divisions, and what's likely to happen in the next several weeks when things start to regress to the mean.

History has made it clear that teams typically move back toward .500 in this stat after an abnormal stretch. Be sure you take that into account when trying to pick your daily winners!

[pm530]

Baseball Today - June 21


SCOREBOARD

Thursday, June 21

Pittsburgh at Seattle (10:05 p.m. EDT). Felix Hernandez looks to even his record at 4-4 for the Mariners.

STARS Wednesday

-Jeff Weaver, Mariners, pitched a complete-game, four-hitter and Seattle beat Pittsburgh 7-0.

-Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals, hit a game-ending home run in the 14th inning to lift St. Louis over Kansas City 7-6.

-Bill Hall, Brewers, hit a grand slam and drove in a career-high five runs to lead Milwaukee past San Francisco 7-5.

-Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles, allowed one run on four hits in eight innings and struck out nine in Baltimore's 7-1 win over San Diego.

-Julian Tavarez, Red Sox, pitched three-hit ball for seven innings in Boston's 11-0 rout of Atlanta.

-Jeff Francis, Rockies, gave up one run and struck out a career-high nine in seven innings to lead Colorado over the New York Yankees 6-1.

600 FOR SAMMY

Sammy Sosa became the fifth member of the 600-homer club on Wednesday when he connected in the fifth inning of Texas' 7-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs, his former team. Sosa drove a 1-2 pitch to right-center for a solo shot and bounced out of the batter's box with his trademark hop and thrust his right fist into the air before reaching first base. He was mobbed at home plate by his teammates while the scoreboard showed pictures of all five members of the elite club: Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Sosa.

SOLID C.C.

C.C. Sabathia gave up four runs in six innings to help Cleveland defeat Philadelphia 10-6 on Wednesday. Sabathia (10-2) has pitched at least six innings in 15 of his 16 starts this season. He joined Josh Beckett of Boston and John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels as the majors' only 10-game winners.

STREAKS

Jeremy Bonderman picked up the win in Detroit's 8-4 victory over Washington on Wednesday and has now won eight straight starts after beginning the year with five no-decisions. ... Derek Jeter extended his hitting streak to 14 games in the New York Yankees' 6-1 loss to Colorado. Jeter has a hit in 22 straight interleague games. ... Milwaukee topped San Francisco 7-5 to hand the Giants their seventh straight loss.

SNAPPED

Baltimore beat San Diego 7-1 on Wednesday to snap a nine-game losing streak. ... Seattle defeated Pittsburgh 7-0 to end a six-game losing streak.

SPEAKING

''And we're still getting paid for that, huh? That's a little embarrassing. Getting paid to lose series.'' - Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, after his bullpen failed again and Florida left Chicago with a 5-4 victory on Wednesday. Jason Wood hit a pinch-hit, three-run homer off closer Bobby Jenks to hand the White Sox their 19th loss in 24 games.

SEASONS June 21

1916 - Rube Foster of the Red Sox pitched a 2-0 no-hitter against the New York Yankees. Foster struck out three and walked three in the first no-hitter at Fenway Park.

1941 - Lefty Grove's 20-game consecutive win streak at Fenway Park ended with a 13-9 loss to the St. Louis Browns. The streak ran from May 3, 1938, to May 12, 1941.

1956 - In a rare double one-hitter, Chicago's Jack Harshman outdueled Connie Johnson and George Zuverink of Baltimore as the White Sox beat the Orioles 1-0.

1964 - Jim Bunning of the Philadelphia Phillies pitched a perfect game against the New York Mets on Father's Day. The no-hitter gave Bunning one in each league. The Phillies' Gus Triandos became the first catcher to handle no-hitters in both leagues.

1970 - Detroit Tigers shortstop Cesar Gutierrez had seven hits in seven at-bats in a 9-8, 12-inning victory over the Cleveland Indians. Gutierrez had six singles and a double.

1989 - Carlton Fisk set an American League record for homers by a catcher and drove in three runs to lead the Chicago White Sox to a 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees. Fisk hit his 307th homer as a catcher to pass the Yankees' Yogi Berra.

2000 - Eric Chavez hit for the cycle in Oakland's 10-3 win over Baltimore. Chavez doubled in the second inning, singled in the fourth, tripled in the fifth and homered in the seventh.

2002 - Luis Castillo singled in the third inning to extend his hitting streak to 35 games, tying Ty Cobb and two others for the 10th-longest streak in baseball history.

2005 - Jeff Larish matched a College World Series record with three homers, and J.J. Sferra drove in the game-winning run with a bloop single in the 11th inning as Arizona State rallied for an 8-7 victory and eliminated hometown favorite Nebraska. Larish's record-tying third homer tied it in the bottom of the ninth, and Sferra's single in the 11th punctuated the 4-hour, 7-minute game.

2005 - The New York Yankees scored 13 runs in the eighth inning, sending 16 batters to the plate, to help overcome an early eight-run deficit and defeat Tampa Bay 20-11.

2006 - Jose Reyes hit for the cycle in the New York Mets' 6-5 loss to Cincinnati.

Today's birthdays:
Jeff Baker, 26; Sendy Rleal, 27.

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[Udog]

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Thursday, June 21


HOT

Shaun Marcum (Toronto Blue Jays) - Marcum has embraced his role since being moved into the Blue Jays starting rotation. The right-hander is 3-0 with a spectacular 2.38 ERA in seven starts this season and 4-2 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 20 overall appearances. Marcum is 1-1 with a solid 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home and the Blue Jays are 4-1 in Marcum's last five starts at Rogers Centre. Oddsmakers list the Blue Jays as -133 home favorites against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

COLD

Vincente Padilla (Texas Rangers) - Things haven't been going well for Padilla. The right-hander is 3-8 with a lofty 6.57 ERA and 1.73 WHIP and He's 1-1 with a 10.66 ERA over his last three starts. The veteran is 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 14 career appearances against the Chicago Cubs and the Rangers are 2-11 in Padilla's last 13 starts as an underdog. Oddsmakers list Texas as a +116 home underdog.

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Pittsburgh at Seattle
The Mariners ended their six-game losing streak last night (7-0) thanks to Jeff Weaver's four-hitter. Seattle will hope for similar fortunes from Felix Hernandez today. But the Mariner phenom gave up a career-worst 12 hits in six innings of a 5-1 loss against Houston in his last start and is 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four starts. Even against Pittsburgh, the Mariners look like a shaky favorite (-185) in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+185). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, JUNE 21

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Lilly) 16.111; Texas (Padilla) 16.210
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+140); Under

Game 953-954: NY Yankees at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Clemens) 17.792; Colorado (Lopez) 18.182
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+185); Under

Game 955-956: Baltimore at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bedard) 15.363; San Diego (Wells) 16.576
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-119); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-119); Over

Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.898; Toronto (Marcum) 16.574
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Van Benschoten) 15.102; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.800
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+185); Over

[Udog]

MLB
Hot Lines


Thursday, June 21


Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers (+116, 10 ½)

The Cubs traded their starting catcher, Michael Barrett, after public altercations with pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Rich Hill. Chicago sent Barrett to San Diego for a backup catcher (Rob Bowen) and a minor leaguer.

“We’re happy to have Rob,” Cubs’ general manager Jim Hendry told the Chicago Sun Times. “He’s a guy that our scouts have liked for a long time, even way back in his amateur days in Indiana.”

The 26-year-old may be an improvement defensively, but certainly not at the dish. Entering this season, Bowen was a career .206 hitter, whereas Barrett is known for his bat.

“We felt (Barrett) was well on his way to becoming a terrific player,” Hendry said. “This year he’s had a little tougher time defensively. A lot of it was probably from trying too hard. And maybe some of that was from being in the last year of his deal.”

Sammy Sosa clubbed his 600th home run last night, effectively making his comeback a mild success.

Pick: Cubs –124



Los Angeles at Toronto Blue Jays (-129, 9)

The boo birds were out in Toronto on Tuesday night after mishaps in the outfield and strikeouts out the plate resulted in a 10-1 loss.

Toronto designated hitter Frank Thomas took the constructive criticism seriously by knocking out a gland slam during Wednesday’s 12-1 win.

“Last night was rock bottom,” Thomas told the Toronto Sun yesterday. “To get booed by the home crowd like that last night, I took that personally. But I’m in a new place and I haven’t played the way I’m capable so far.”

Jason Schmidt was originally scheduled to start today, but he won’t be pitching again this year. The former San Francisco Giants ace will undergo season-ending surgery to repair his pitching shoulder.

“With all due respect, he hasn’t thrown well,” Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told the Los Angeles Times. “It’s not as if he was on his way to a Cy Young season and suddenly you lost him.”

Regardless, this is a downer for Dodger Blue faithful. The team spent $47 million on Schmidt in the offseason and the injury limits Colletti’s ability to trade an arm for a bat.

Pick: Jays –129



Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners (-191, 9)

Mediocre pitchers have a habit of looking as unhittable against the Pirates as Henry Rowengartner in Rookie of the Year. Seattle’s Jeff Weaver was the latest second-rate pitcher to baffle the Pittsburgh bats. The righty came into the contest 0-6 with an ERA over 10, but he pitched a complete game shutout last night.

“Yeah, we’ve had a few guys with numbers like that,” Pirates left fielder Jason Bay told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

“Nobody likes to be the team it happens to,” shortstop Jack Wilson said. “But it doesn’t matter what you do to that point when you perform like that. If you’re a .100 hitter and you go 3-for-4, well, you were a .750 hitter that day. Weaver’s ERA was 0.00 tonight, and that’s what counts tonight.”

Kameron Loe, Kip Wells, Kyle Davies, Kyle Lohse and Matt Chico have all had close to their best start this season against Pittsburgh.

Pick: Mariners -191

[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet


Thursday, June 21


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CHICAGO CUBS (32 - 38) at TEXAS (27 - 44) - 2:05 PM
TED LILLY (L) vs. VICENTE PADILLA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 32-38 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-72 (-29.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 32-38 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 598-664 (-136.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 43-61 (-24.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LILLY is 1-10 (-10.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 6-21 (-14.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 54-61 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 54-61 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 44-56 (-23.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PADILLA is 1-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-1 (+0.1 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

TED LILLY vs. TEXAS since 1997
LILLY is 3-4 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.270.
His team's record is 5-6 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-2. (+7.0 units)

VICENTE PADILLA vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
PADILLA is 2-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.60 and a WHIP of 1.436.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.6 units)




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NY YANKEES (35 - 34) at COLORADO (37 - 34) - 3:05 PM
ROGER CLEMENS (R) vs. RODRIGO LOPEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 35-34 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 120-84 (-56.7 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -175 or more since 1997.
NY YANKEES are 15-20 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
NY YANKEES are 12-15 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 1-7 (-7.8 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season.
NY YANKEES are 32-29 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEMENS is 26-30 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEMENS is 19-20 (-22.1 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -175 or more since 1997. (Team's Record)
CLEMENS is 26-30 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 37-34 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 12-5 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in June games this season.
COLORADO is 20-9 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 37-34 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 30-22 (+13.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LOPEZ is 36-28 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 2-0 (+3.1 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

ROGER CLEMENS vs. COLORADO since 1997
CLEMENS is 2-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.394.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

RODRIGO LOPEZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
LOPEZ is 7-7 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.78 and a WHIP of 1.513.
His team's record is 10-9 (+7.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 12-6. (+5.9 units)




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BALTIMORE (30 - 41) at SAN DIEGO (41 - 29) - 3:35 PM
ERIK BEDARD (L) vs. DAVID WELLS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 174-222 (-47.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 3-14 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in June games this season.
BALTIMORE is 4-10 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game this season.
BALTIMORE is 28-44 (-19.1 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 44-85 (-31.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BEDARD is 11-24 (-15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 130-106 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 128-105 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WELLS is 194-113 (+45.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WELLS is 31-8 (+22.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

ERIK BEDARD vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.

DAVID WELLS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
WELLS is 14-9 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.170.
His team's record is 16-9 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-13. (-3.6 units)




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LA DODGERS (40 - 31) at TORONTO (34 - 36) - 7:05 PM
CHAD BILLINGSLEY (R) vs. SHAUN MARCUM (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 13-31 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 33-14 (+14.3 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 77-41 (+27.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 54-66 (-22.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 (+1.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

CHAD BILLINGSLEY vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

SHAUN MARCUM vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MARCUM is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.049.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)




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PITTSBURGH (31 - 40) at SEATTLE (36 - 32) - 10:05 PM
JOHN VAN BENSCHOTEN (R) vs. FELIX HERNANDEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-35 (-17.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 36-32 (+6.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 34-31 (+5.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SEATTLE is 27-21 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SEATTLE is 62-50 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 (+0.2 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JOHN VAN BENSCHOTEN vs. SEATTLE since 1997
No recent starts.

FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
No recent starts.




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[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, June 21st


Interleague

Chicago Cubs at Texas, 2:05 EST
Ted Lilly (L) vs. Vicente Padilla (R)
Lilly: 14-4 Under when the total is 10 or higher
Padilla: 1-12 TSR as a home underdog of +100 to +125

NY Yankees at Colorado, 3:05 EST
Roger Clemens (R) vs. Rodrigo Lopez (R)
Clemens: NYY 1-7 Away in day games
Lopez: 5-0 TSR, 3.29 ERA at home

Baltimore at San Diego, 3:35 EST
Erik Bedard (L) vs. David Wells (L)
Bedard: Bal 3-14 in June
Wells: SD 24-9 Under after scoring 1 run or less

LA Dodgers at Toronto, 7:05 EST
Chad Billingsley (R) vs. Shaun Marcum (R)
Billingsley: LAD 13-31 vs. American League
Marcum: Tor 11-0 Under as a home favorite of -125 to -150

Pittsburgh at Seattle, 10:05 EST
John Van Benschoten (R) vs. Felix Hernandez (R)
Van Benschoten: Pit 12-3 Over as an underdog of +150 or more
Hernandez: 3-8 TSR as a favorite of -150 or more

** (TC) Denotes Time Change