Homer Bailey

[griswold]

I have a rule about NEVER ever betting for or against a pitcher making his major league debut. Some are awful and others are pumped up and pitch great.

That being said, this Homer Bailey hype is off the charts. Cincinnati is using him in a very positive situation----a home game with a large and supportive crowd because it's the interleague rivalry with the Indians.

I wouldn't touch this game, though, even though Cleveland is way better than the pathetic Reds.

[BigWeiner]

I always bet against overhyped pitchers, they rarely make great first starts. Perfect example is Tim Linsecom, he was bombed his first start, been good ever since.

[BigWeiner]

With that said the Reds could win this game, at home, Lee has been pretty weak himself, but a lot of lefties in the Reds lineup, Dunn, Griffey, Hamilton, against the lefthanded Lee, and the Indians have a good left handed lineup, Hafner, Sizemore, Martinez, against the righthander Bailey.

[wayne1218]

I disagree ... a little. Sometimes these guys come up and fool everyone in their first start and go downhill from there.

Example: J.P. Howell of T.B. made his debut last week and he was hyped pretty well too but more quietly in T.B. I picked him up on my fantasy team and wagered on him and all he did was pitch a GEM!

[BigWeiner]

I see where you're coming from Wayne, but that wasn't Howell's first start. Guys that get bounced around from the minors to the majors, tend to do better with age. The first major league start is usually rough

[griswold]

Have you seen this kids stats? He struck out 536 in 298 innings over four years of high school and had a career high school ERA of 0.98!

His fastball is in the high 90s and his CURVE (not slider) is in the mid-80s.

[wayne1218]

Have you seen this kids stats? He struck out 536 in 298 innings over four years of high school and had a career high school ERA of 0.98!

His fastball is in the high 90s and his CURVE (not slider) is in the mid-80s.

Then (IMO) i see no reason to believe he gets shelled today or pitches any differently. I wouldn't bet on him though simply because of the Reds pen!

[wayne1218]

I see where you're coming from Wayne, but that wasn't Howell's first start. Guys that get bounced around from the minors to the majors, tend to do better with age. The first major league start is usually rough

I have no problem betting on a pitcher making his 1st start. Simply because the hitters have never seen him before and usually that works to the pitchers advantage.

[Kaptain]

I feel if his stuff is good, he may fool em, and hold em down in their first complete 9 man at bat, and then I feel Indians bats come alive......Or he may have the jitters, and blow it early....

Reds BP, is nothing to boast about.....I do agree Lee has been struggling, and it may be ahi scoring game, which favors the Indians IMO....

I have a tendency to go against Minor League Pitchers Premeir pitching appearance, as well as a pitcher coming off the DL's, first appearance....IMO....It's just a prefewrence of Mine, there's exceptions to all stats, and first timers, some are great, some are bad....we'll just have to wait and see....

I have Cleveland as my POD....Both teams in last 10 are 5-5 with a 1 W streak........Cinn 10-18 at Home, Cleveland 15-15 on Road....My big factor is that Cleveland has won 62 % of their games, Reds 38.....

GL whichever way you go......This is just my opinion....kapt

[BigWeiner]

Yes, have you. Here's the key one, 24 walks in 58 innings. 51 k's in 58 innings, isn't great for AAA. By comparison, here's Yovani Gallardo's stats, 95 k's in 67 innings.

[Winton]

I was always told dont bet against a kid making his first start but that being said its hard to take Cincy against anyone especially one of the best hitting teams in baseball!There bullpen is brutal!

[BigWeiner]

I was always told dont bet against a kid making his first start but that being said its hard to take Cincy against anyone especially one of the best hitting teams in baseball!There bullpen is brutal!

I think in this case, you get pretty good value, because of the hype. -135 for the Indians against the Reds, even on the road, is good value. Cliff Lee has been garbage, so the over might be the call. Good luck whatever you guys play

[Kaptain]

gris

Have you seen this kids stats? He struck out 536 in 298 innings over four years of high school and had a career high school ERA of 0.98!

His fastball is in the high 90s and his CURVE (not slider) is in the mid-80s.

good stats----in Hi School

AAA with Louisville
6-1
2.31 ERA
51K/24 BB in 58.3 innings, and 10 games.....

now those stats are also impressive, but you can look at em in another perspective....as a capper...

10 starts----potential of pitching 90 innings......pitched 58.....means he stays in about 6 innings per start.......Now he's stepping up to a much higher level, can be difficult, but lets say he does his norm, and gives ya 6 innings, here comes the pathetic BP again, for the last 1/3 of the game.....

He sounds impressive, and probaly is, they called him up, I just find it rare for a first timer from the Minors to excel....

He not pitching to the 238 Bat Avg Astros, it's the 275 Indians, who can hit the long Ball.....

[wayne1218]

Damn, i didn't notice those stats were from High School!!!!

No offense but who cares about High School stats? There are a million more Hall of Famers if we base it on HS stats. I thought they were his minor league stats.

[BigWeiner]

I think Todd Van Poppel had numbers like that in High School too