Thursday Trends and Indexes 06/07

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Trends and Indexes
Thursday, June 7

Good Luck on day #158 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Thursday

-- The Stanley Cup must be sunburned by now, as Anaheim becomes third straight warm weather franchise to win Lord Stanley's Cup, the best trophy in sports. Scott Niedemeyer becomes only active player to win the Cup four times.

-- Mets are only 17-15 at home, 7-4 in home series openers, 10-11 in subsequent home games. Jose Reyes has been on base 21 times in his last 10 games, but only scored 3 times.

-- Texas Rangers are already 16 games out of first place.

-- Efficiency of pitching: Wang pitched 104-pitch complete game in Chicago, facing 31 hitters. In Toronto, Kazmir got the win, facing 25 batters on 103 pitches. Wang got a dozen more outs, despite throwing only one more pitch.

-- Congrats to Trevor Hoffman on his 500th career save.

-- A's used three relievers to close out Kennedy's 3-2 win over Boston Wednesday: Lewis, Marshall and Casilla, only Marshall started season in majors; he pitched in A ball last season. Bob Geren is doing masterful job with this bullpen.

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Thursday's List of 13:
Obscure facts to ponder over lunch 23 Ways to Reach First Base is a new book filled with a lot of obscure information, which we enjoy a lot. Here is a sampling of what I found in thumbing through the book..........

13) In 1987, the winner's share on a World Series team was a cool $85,581.06. Last year, it was $369,173.07.

12) Michael Jordan has been on the cover at least once of 46 different magazines.

11) Over the last seven years, the hidden ball trick has been pulled off successfully twice in the major leagues, both times by Mike Lowell; he tricked Brian Schneider in 2004, then Luis Terrero in 2005.

10) Nine pitchers have lost perfect games with one out to go, last of which was Mike Mussina in 2001, who had his perfect game broken up by Carl Everett.

9) Arizona Diamondbacks' mascot is named D. Baxter (get it, D-Bax?) the Bobcat. Right now, D. Baxter's team has won 11 of its last 12 games and looks like a serious contender.

8) Tony Dorsett was first of seven NFL players to win Super Bowl as rookie, after winning national title in his last season of college ball. Sadly, the last player to do it was Marquise Hill, who recently passed away in a jet-ski accident.

7) Seven NFL teams don't have cheerleaders; Jets, Steelers, Giants, Lions, Browns, Bears and Packers, cold weather teams

6) Most common mascot among college teams: Eagles (64).

5) Tom Brady was drafted by the Montreal Expos in 1995. Be advised that ESPN2 is televising the amateur draft Thursday at 2, first time baseball's draft has ever been telelvised.

4) In rodeo, it is bad luck to put your left foot in stirrup first.

3) Last baseball player to go directly from college ball to the major leagues was Xavier Nady, who went from California to the Padres back in 2000. He is now on the Pirates.

2) Jimmie Johnson won $8,909,140 in NASCAR purses a year ago; when the late Alan Kulwicki won title in 1992, he earned a total of $907,510 in purses.

1) Only six managers in major league history didn't play any professional baseball; of the six, the former Toronto manager Carlos Tosca (191-191) is only one with .500+ career record.

[pm530]

NBA Final - Cleveland/San Antonio

NBA



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Dunkel Index


Cleveland at San Antonio
The Cavaliers seized the torch in the East with a dramatic series comeback against the Pistons. LeBron James made an argument as the best player in the conference if not the league with his 48-point performance in Game Five and Daniel Gibson provided the sharpshooter's touch with 31 points in the decisive Game Six. But as impressive as the Cavs' win was, they will face by far their stiffest challenge in San Antonio. The Spurs have done nothing to dispell the notion that beating Phoenix was tantamount to winning the championship. After dispatching the Suns in six, San Antonio rumbled through Utah in five while posting a 4-1 mark against the spread. Utah's offense, which had averaged 112.6 ppg in its series against Golden State, averaged only 93.6 against the Spurs and just 82.5 in the last two games. With Cleveland already offensively challenged at a number of spots, San Antonio's stifling defense should cause plenty of problems. The Spurs also have the advantage in experience as eight of their players have played a combined 103 games in the NBA Finals, while only one Cleveland player (back-up Eric Snow) has any Finals experience. San Antonio looks like the pick (-7 1/2) in Game One according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, JUNE 7

Game 701-702: Cleveland at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.420; San Antonio 133.719
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 11 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2); Over



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Long Sheet


Thursday, June 7


CLEVELAND (62 - 36) at SAN ANTONIO (70 - 28) - 6/7/2007, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 54-43 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 50-40 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 189-147 ATS (+27.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 53-42 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 3-3 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



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Short Sheet


Thursday, June 7


NBA Finals, Game One
Series Tied, 0-0
TV: ABC
Cleveland at San Antonio, 9:05 EST

Cleveland:
6-1 ATS off BB division games
10-2 ATS off 4+ ATS wins

San Antonio:
2-11 ATS after committing 8 turnovers or less
8-0 Under playing with double-revenge



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Write-up


Thursday, June 7

NBA Finals

Cleveland beat the Spurs in both meetings this season, 88-81 at the Alamo way back on November 3, the Spurs' home opener, then 82-78 on Lake Erie Jan 2, so teams haven't seen each other in five months. Key to Cavaliers' playoff run has been when the complimentary players make shots, make plays, they win, since Lebron is a constant. Spurs are consummate team, though, and Bowen will dog Lebron throughout series. Both teams should be rested, for Pete's sake, since Cavaliers played last, and that was five nights ago. Spurs have huge edge in



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Tips and Trends


#2 Cleveland Cavaliers at #3 San Antonio Spurs
Game 1 - Thursday, June 7th, 9 p.m. Eastern (ABC)

One of the key storylines of this series is obviously the fact that Cleveland head coach Mike Brown served under San Antonio's Gregg Popovich during the team's 2003 NBA championship season. Cavs GM Danny Ferry also played and served in the front office of two championship Spurs teams in 2003 and 2005, molding his Cleveland squad based on similar defensive principles. Ferry re-signed Zydrunas Ilgauskas because he realized the Eastern Conference does not possess much size and he would need a quality big man against the Western Conference while he also inked Larry Hughes as a free agent because of his defensive ability. Both Brown and Ferry are well-schooled with San Antonio's strenghs and should be more capable of finding flaws than any other opponent. EDGE: CAVS
Experience is a huge advantage in this series for the Spurs, as eight different players have appeared in a combined 103 games in the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, only one Cavalier has played in the NBA Finals - Eric Snow - in 1996 with the Sonics and 2001 with the 76ers for a total of 11 games. San Antonio forward Robert Horry will be trying to win his seventh NBA championship, separating himself from Chicago's Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. BIG EDGE: SPURS
San Antonio has had no answer for Cleveland star LeBron James in the last three meetings despite the presence of All-NBA defensive stopper Bruce Bowen. James is simply too big for Bowen, who is an inch shorter and weighs 50 pounds less than him. Detroit's Tayshaun Prince weighs 35 pounts less and was an inch taller than James but was abused by him in the Eastern Conference Finals. James has averaged nearly 33 points in the last three meetings with San Antonio, including a 44-point effort. Bowen has totaled two points with six fouls in the last two meetings combined. BIG EDGE: CAVS
San Antonio's Tim Duncan is a 3-time NBA Finals MVP and has averaged almost 21 points and 12 rebounds in the last four meetings with the Cavs. Ilgauskas has averaged 11 points and 11 rebounds for the Cavs in those games with 15 fouls, and his ability to keep Duncan from having a monster game will be very important to Cleveland's chances. Duncan's experience still gives him huge big advantage in this matchup. BIG EDGE: SPURS
The Cavs have won 16 straight games when scoring 86 points or more.
San Antonio's last 13 home wins have been decided by seven points or more, with 11 of those decided by eight or more (Phoenix lost by seven twice).
The Spurs have won their previous three NBA titles in odd-numbered years (1999, 2003 & 2005).
Since the 1983-84 season, the team with home-court advantage in the NBA Finals is 17-6.
The team that wins Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone on to win the NBA Finals nearly 72 percent of the time (43 of 60 times).
Cleveland is 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings with San Antonio.
San Antonio is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 against Central Division opponents.
UNDER is 6-2 in Cleveland's last 8 games as an underdog.
OVER is 5-1 in San Antonio's last 6 games.


Head-to-Head Recaps

2007 NBA FINALS (HOME team in CAPS)

SCHEDULE

6/7/07 - Game 1 - Cleveland Cavaliers at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 9 PM ET)
6/10/07 - Game 2 - Cleveland Cavaliers at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 9 PM ET)
6/12/07 - Game 3 - San Antonio Spurs at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (ABC | 9 PM ET)
6/14/07 - Game 4 - San Antonio Spurs at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (ABC | 9 PM ET)
6/17/07 - Game 5 - San Antonio Spurs at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (ABC | 9 PM ET)
6/19/07 - Game 6 - Cleveland Cavaliers at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 9 PM ET)
6/21/07 - Game 7 - Cleveland Cavaliers at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 9 PM ET)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Cleveland wins 2-0 SU & ATS
UNDER 2-0

1/2/07 - CLEVELAND 82, San Antonio 78 (ATS winner: Cleve +3.5 | UNDER 185)
11/3/07 - Cleveland 88, SAN ANTONIO 81 (ATS winner: Cleve +5.5 | UNDER 184.5)

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECAP: Since these teams only played each other twice during the regular season, we will look at the last four meetings. Cleveland has won the last three meetings both straight-up and against the spread after losing the previous four. LeBron James led the way for the Cavs in the last three meetings, averaging nearly 33 points, six rebounds and five assists per game. Spurs star Tim Duncan put up solid numbers of nearly 21 points and 12 rebounds per game in the last four meetings but his supporting cast was a bit limited. Top reserve Manu Ginobili averaged 10.5 points for San Antonio in the four games and has been known to step up on a larger stage. The problem is, he will be one of the players responsible for guarding James, who should take advantage of anybody the Spurs throw at him.



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Additional
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NBA Finals Trends, Tips and Tidbits

The NBA Finals are set with Cleveland and San Antonio, meaning it is time to look at numerous betting opportunities that could be available. For starters, early action has come hard on Cleveland to win the best of seven game series. The Cavaliers opened as +400 underdogs to win this series and have been bet down to +350 dogs. This is not necessarily an indication that sharp bettors believe LeBron James and the rest of the Cavs are a strong wager, rather just a better payday if they do manage to pull the upset.

Cleveland on the season is now 62-36 with 53-42-3 ATS record. A good portion of that spread record being so positive has come in the postseason with an 11-4-1 ATS record including covering seven in a row. Coach Mike Brown’s Cavaliers are 25-24 on the road with a 27-20-2 against the spread mark. Cleveland is a very impressive 6-1-1 ATS on the playoff road. Dating back to January, they are 20-7-1 ATS on the road as visitors. As a road underdog they are 13-14 and stalwart 19-8 ATS. In Game One they are presently listed as a 7.5-point underdog at Sportsbook.com. This will be just the fourth time all season LeBron and the boys will be an underdog of more than seven points. (1-2, 2-1 ATS)

At home the Cavaliers are 37-12 and 26-22-3 ATS. Based on conventional wisdom they could be a slight underdog or favorite playing at Quicken Loans Arena. As a home favorite the Cavs are 35-10, 24-20-1 ATS, when listed as the home underdog they are 2-2 SU and ATS. In all games in which Cleveland have been in +3 to -3 point range this season, they were 16-8 and 15-8-1 ATS.

San Antonio will be out for 4th NBA title in nine seasons with its veteran cast. The Spurs will open at home where they are 38-12 and 26-22-2 ATS. In the post-season the Duncan Gang is 8-2 SU and ATS at the AT&T Center. Since New Year’s Eve, San Antonio 23-3 and 18-8 ATS when favored by more than seven points at home and 8-0 and 7-1 ATS most recently. The Spurs are 11-2 and 10-2-1 ATS as playoff favorite in 2007.

The Spurs are 32-16 on the road with 26-21-1 ATS mark. If by chance they are a road favorite in any of the games in Cleveland, they are 28-13 and 22-18-1 ATS. The road underdog role has San Antonio a pedestrian 3-3 SU and ATS.

Speculation by the rank and file suggests the Cavs can get off to fast start with San Antonio last playing on May 30. While they may be a little rusty to start, this grizzled bunch is 8-2 and 7-3 ATS when playing with three or more days rest this season. Cleveland is not nearly as strong in exact same situation with 7-3 mark covering only four times.

The Cavaliers were outstanding playing against the presumed tougher Western Conference with 19-11 record, covering an astounding 20 times. The Spurs were 20-10 playing versus teams from the East with undistinguished 15-15 ATS mark.

What is interesting to note is Cleveland won both games between these teams in the regular season as the underdog. In the last nine years the eventual champion has never beaten the other team twice during the record season. There have been eight instances during this time span (no interleague games in 1999 strike season) and the NBA champions split six times with finals opponent and twice has lost both games like San Antonio did during the regular season. The subsequent champs were 7-11 and 6-12 ATS during the regular year against the other conference champions, proving the playoffs are far different than the normal season.



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NBA Gameday


Thursday, June 7

NBA Finals Gameday

The NBA Finals finally tip off tonight with Game 1 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Spurs in San Antonio. The Spurs are searching for their fourth championship since 1999 and are heavy favorites at -400 at most books. The Cavaliers have never won a championship, and in fact the team has never been to the Finals before. Due to the wide gap in playoff experience between the two teams, the Cavs are a +320 underdog to end the franchise’s championship drought.

San Antonio’s journey to the Finals began versus Denver, when they sent the Nuggets home in five games. Many observers have called the second-round matchup between the Spurs and the Phoenix Suns the provisional NBA Finals, and if that’s the case the Spurs should be in line for a fourth title since they knocked off the Suns in six games. The Western Conference final was no contest as San Antonio easily dealt with the Utah Jazz in five games.

The Spurs’ biggest strength throughout their playoff run has been the consistent play of star forward Tim Duncan. Duncan has averaged a double-double with 23.2 points and 11.4 rebounds in the playoffs and has also provided his usual strong defense. Tony Parker has had an up-and-down playoffs so far, but is still averaging 19.8 points and 6.4 assists per game. Manu Ginobili has provided some nice scoring punch off the bench, which is a source of great depth that Cleveland may have trouble matching in the Finals.

Cleveland rolled through the first round of the playoffs with an easy four-game sweep of the injury-plagued Washington Wizards. It took the Cavs six games to knock off the Nets in Round 2. In the Eastern Conference final, Cleveland fell behind 0-2 before storming back to take the next four games and eliminate the favored Detroit Pistons.

The Cavaliers’ playoff MVP is clearly LeBron James. King James silenced all the critics who were questioning his play after Cleveland’s first two losses against Detroit with one of the greatest playoff performances ever in Game 5. LeBron’s supporting cast of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden have all delivered solid performances when needed throughout Cleveland’s playoff run, but it’s Daniel Gibson that truly impressed in the Conference final. The rookie only averaged only 4.6 points per game during the regular season and scored only 41 points in 10 games combined through the first two rounds, before breaking out for 31 points in the clincher versus Detroit.

The Cavs and Spurs squared off twice during the regular season with Cleveland winning both contests. Early in the season the Cavaliers defeated the Spurs 88-81 in San Antonio as a 5.5-point underdog. That was the first time Cleveland has won in San Antonio since 1988. In the rematch back in Cleveland in January, the Cavs edged the Spurs 82-78 as a 3.5-point dog. In the victories Cleveland's defense was able to shut down the Spurs, who shot les than 40 percent in both losses. If the Cavaliers can maintain that kind of defensive pressure against the Spurs through the Finals, and continue to get show-stopping performances from LeBron, they could prove the oddsmakers wrong.

Tip-off is 9:00 pm ET at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, with ABC handling the coverage.



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Trend and Angle Report for Game 1 of the NBA Finals

at San Antonio Spurs by 7.5 Cleveland Cavaliers O/U 180.0
San Antonio Spurs are 60-87-3 O/U As Home (All Lines)
San Antonio Spurs are 11-3-0 ATS As Home (6 -> 7.5)
San Antonio Spurs are 60-87-3 O/U As Home Favorite (All Lines)
San Antonio Spurs are 11-3-0 ATS As Home Favorite (6 -> 7.5)
San Antonio Spurs are 9-1-0 ATS After 2 ATS Wins (6 -> 7.5)
San Antonio Spurs are 11-3-0 ATS After 1 Overs (6 -> 7.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers are 20-8-0 ATS Postseason Games (All Lines)

CLEVELAND is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a # 2 seed in the playoffs this season

CLEVELAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games this season

SAN ANTONIO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN ANTONIO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season.

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[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Thursday, June 7

Hot Pitchers
-- Snell is 1-1, 2.40 in his last two starts. Nationals won last five Chico starts, scoring thirty runs.
-- Phillies won eight of last ten Hamels starts.
-- James is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Lohse is 1-1, 1.80 in his last couple starts. Wainwright is 1-1, 2.33 in his last three starts.
-- Hernandez is 2-1, 2.70 in his last four starts.
-- Peavy is 4-0, 1.53 in his last six starts.

-- Indians won seven of last eight Carmona starts. Perez is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three road starts.
-- Blanton is 2-1, 1.64 in his last four home starts. Red Sox won nine of last eleven Schilling starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Maine is 1-3, 4.82 in his last five starts.
-- Cubs lost Hill's last five starts, scoring total of eight runs.
-- Fogg is 0-4, 5.41 in his last five starts. Houston lost last four Oswalt starts (0-2, 3.67).
-- Lowry is 1-3, 3.82 in his last five starts.
-- Kuo lost first start 4-2 in Pittsburgh, giving up two runs in his 4.2 innings pitched (94 PT).

-- Devil Rays are 1-9 in Jackson starts (0-7, 9.39). Burnett is 1-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.
-- Bronx lost last four Mussina starts (0-2, 7.33). Contreras is 1-2, 5.34 in his last four starts.
-- Maroth is 0-2, 6.86 in his last three starts. Texas lost last three Loe starts (0-3, 7.36).

Totals
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Snell's last eight starts.
-- Six of last eight Fogg starts went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1 in last nine games at Shea Stadium.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Cub road games.
-- Under is 6-3 in Cincinnati's last nine road games.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Hernandez starts.
-- Under is 8-2 in last ten games at Petco Park.

-- Seven of last eight Royal games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-2 in last thirteen games at Toronto.
-- Four of five Schilling road starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 11-6-1 in last eighteen White Sox games.
-- Over is 6-1-2 in Detroit's last nine games.


Hot Teams
-- Phillies won four of their last four games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last seven games.
-- Colorado won three of its last four games.
-- Padres are 6-1 in their last seven games.
-- Arizona won eleven of its last twelve games.

-- Toronto won six of its last nine games.
-- Indians won thirteen of last sixteen home games
-- Oakland won nine of its last twelve home games.


Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost six of their last eight games. Washington is 4-7 in its last eleven home games.
-- Mets lost four of their last five games.
-- Braves lost seven of their last nine home games. Cubs lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Reds lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost thirteen of their last sixteen games.
-- Giants lost fifteen of their last twenty-two road games.
-- Dodgers lost first two games in San Diego, scoring two runs.

-- Devil Rays are 5-10 in their last fifteen road games, but 6-4 in their last ten games, overall.
-- Royals lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last 13 games. Bronx is 11-16 in its last twenty-seven road games.
-- Detroit lost eight of its last twelve games. Rangers lost 11 of their last games.
-- Red Sox lost six of their last seven games.

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Thursday, June 7

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Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies (3:05 PM ET)
Houston starter Roy Oswalt is 5-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six career starts against Colorado. He's walked just six Rockies in 41 2/3 innings of work. BIG EDGE: ASTROS & UNDER
Oswalt is struggling on the road in 2007, posting a 2-3 record and 5.91 ERA. The Astros have lost two straight road games with him on the mound. EDGE: ROCKIES
Rockies right-hander Taylor Buchholz is an even 2-2 with a 6.14 ERA in two starts this season at Coors Field. EDGE: OVER
The Astros are 5-16 in their last 21 road games.



Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics (3:35 PM ET)
Boston's Curt Schilling is an even 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 12 career appearances against Oakland. The right-hander threw seven innings against the Athletics on May 1, allowing two runs on eight hits in a no-decision. SLIGHT EDGE: RED SOX
Schilling is 3-2 on the road this season, but his 4.40 ERA away from Fenway Park is nearly a full run higher than at home. EDGE: OVER
Athletics right-hander Joe Blanton is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA in three career starts against Boston. Despite allowing four runs in his last start against the Red Sox on May 1, Oakland came away with a 5-4 road victory. BIG EDGE: ATHLETICS
Blanton is coming off a 1-0 shutout victory of Minnesota last time out, allowing just three runs and striking out six while walking none. EDGE: ATHLETICS & UNDER
The Red Sox are 14-3 in their last 17 road games versus a right-handed starter.
The UNDER is 7-0 in Schilling's last seven starts as a road favorite.



Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (7:10 PM ET)
Philadelphia left-hander Cole Hamels is 4-1 with a 3.92 ERA on the road this season. EDGE: PHILLIES
Hamels is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two career starts against New York. He allowed two runs and six hits on April 9 against the Mets, as the Phillies were beaten 11-5. SLIGHT EDGE: PHILLIES
New York's John Maine is 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia. He failed to get out of the fifth inning in his last start against the Phillies, but the Mets grabbed an 11-5 victory over Hamels. EDGE: METS
After going 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA in five starts in April, Maine has fallen off a bit since, going 2-3 with a 4.25 ERA in his lst six outings. SLIGHT EDGE: PHILLIES
The Mets are 17-4 in Maine's last 21 starts as a favorite.



Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (7:35 PM ET)
Chicago's Rich Hill is an even 1-1 with a 2.52 ERA in four career appearances against Atlanta. He earned a no-decision against them in his last start, allowing one earned run and four hits in seven innings. EDGE: CUBS
The Cubs have lost seven out of Hill's last eight starts this season, as the offense has managed to score just 11 runs in the process. EDGE: BRAVES & UNDER
Braves starter Chuck James is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs. The Braves picked up a 5-3 victory in his last start against the Cubs, as he allowed two runs and six hits over six innings. EDGE: BRAVES
The Braves are 5-0 in James' last five starts versus the NL Central.



New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (8:11 PM ET)
New York starter Mike Mussina is 15-16 with a 4.72 ERA in 35 career starts against Chicago. On May 16, he was knocked around by Chicago in a 5-3 loss, allowing five runs and eight hits in just 5 1/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: WHITE SOX
The Yankees have lost four straight games and six of eight with Mussina on the mound this season. He has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 23 1/3 innings. EDGE: WHITE SOX & OVER
Chicago right-hander Jose Contreras is an even 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA in four career starts against New York. He was knocked around a bit in his last start against the Bronx Bombers on May 16, allowing four runs (two earned) and five hits in 6 2/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: WHITE SOX
Contreras has struggled mightily at home this season, allowing 18 runs and 28 hits in just 20 1/3 innings. EDGE: YANKEES & OVER
The UNDER is 6-1 in Mussina's last seven starts versus the White Sox.



San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)
Giants left-hander Noah Lowry is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA in eight career outings against the Diamondbacks. EDGE: GIANTS
Lowry is a dismal 1-4 with a 3.89 ERA in five road starts this season and has allowed eight runs and 12 hits in his last 11 innings. EDGE: D-BACKS & OVER
Arizona's Livan Hernandez is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA in five home starts this season. BIG EDGE: D-BACKS
The Diamondbacks have won five straight games with Hernandez on the hill, after suffering a loss in his previous start. EDGE: D-BACKS



Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (10:05 PM ET)
Los Angeles starter Hong-Chih Kuo has allowed two earned runs in two career innings against San Diego. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES
Kuo has thrown just seven innings this season, posting an 0-1 record and 7.71 ERA in the process. EDGE: PADRES
San Diego's Jake Peavy is an amazing 7-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 14 career starts against Los Angeles. He tallied a 7-2 victory over the Dodgers on April 14, allowing just one run and three hits over seven innings. BIG EDGE: PADRES

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball (women) – Hot Lines

WNBA
Hot Lines


Thursday, June 7

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Lady luck: Thursday’s best WNBA bets

Chicago Sky at Phoenix Mercury (-9, 170)

Things have started to go sour for the Mercury. They’ve lost three straight including Tuesday’s embarrassing 90-85 home loss to the Minnesota Lynx.

All Phoenix players are playing below their capabilities but none more than Diana Taurasi. Last year’s league leader in scoring is averaging only 13.3 points during the losing streak compared to the 25.2 points she was averaging when the team jumped out to a 4-1 start.

“What are you going to do? Have a pity party?” Taurasi told the Arizona Republic. “If you do, you should lose and lose every game from here on out. But we’re strong-character people. Four-and-four – that’s the reality of it. We have to come back tomorrow, practice and get some things together. We really have to band together now.”

Tonight’s game is no gimme. Chicago is a much-improved club from last season. They’re a young team that plays with enthusiasm.

Pick: Chicago



Seattle Storm at Sacramento Monarchs (-5 1/2, 145 1/2)

It’s tough to support the Storm with the possibility two of their best players may not play. Injuries mean All-Stars Sue Bird and Lauren Jackson are both considered questionable for Thursday’s match against the Monarchs.

Bird has swelling in her left knee and while results for an MRI were negative, coach Anne Donovan still said her guard was limping.

Jackson, who is the Storm’s leading scorer, did not practice on Monday because of an illness.

“Don’t know what it is,” Donovan said, “but she’s not feeling well.”

Seattle could make do without Bird, but winning without Jackson would be a remarkable task.

Pick: Monarchs

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[Dennis14072]

Thanks PM! Great reading while I'm breaking from the table. Good Luck Today!

[pm530]

...and Good Luck Dennis!

We will have more in the morning.

[Udog]

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Thursday, June 7


HOT

Fausto Carmona (Cleveland Indians) - The Tribe have gone 7-1 the last eight times the Dominican native has taken the rubber. This will be his fifth start at Jacobs Field this season and Cleveland has won each of his last three starts there. The Indians are -244 favorites against Kansas City.

Matt Chico (Washington Nationals) - The Nats are last place in the NL East, but if Chico started more often they could be a contender. OK, probably not, but they seem to know how to win games when he starts. Looking at the former USC Trojan's record, you see one win and four no-decisions in his last five outings, but the good news is that backers cashed in with the underdog in all of those contests. Washington is a +128 home dog to Pittsburgh today.

Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies) - The southpaw has been favored in each of his last 10 outings and backers took home the cash eight times in that span. The Phillies are listed at -103 against the Mets at Shea.

COLD

Kameron Loe (Texas Rangers) - The Rangers moved the righty from the bullpen to the rotation in late April and things haven't worked out in their favor. Texas has lost five straight in which he has started and the team is only 2-7 with him on as a starter. The Rangers will host Detroit as +123 underdogs.

Rich Hill (Chicago Cubs) - The left-hander is definitely not king of the Hill to Cubs bettors. He has allowed just three runs in his last two outings, but the Cubs failed to win either of those strong performances. The Cubs are 0-5 the five times he has taken the mound. He'll enter his second straight appearance against Atlanta as a slight -103 road underdog.

[Udog]

WNBA
Long Sheet


Thursday, June 7


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CHICAGO (3 - 3) at PHOENIX (4 - 4) - 6/7/2007, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
PHOENIX is 100-65 ATS (+28.5 Units) in home games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SEATTLE (2 - 2) at SACRAMENTO (4 - 2) - 6/7/2007, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 4-3 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Boston at Oakland
Boston's four-game losing streak is the team's longest since dropping six straight in August of last year. Three of those have come against the A's, who are trying for their first four-game sweep of the Red Sox in 75 years. Strong starting pitching has been Oakland's recipe as Dan Haren, Lenny Dinardo and Joe Kennedy have combined to allow just four runs and 13 hits over 20 2/3 innings in the series thus far. Today's starter, Joe Blanton, may be the hottest pitcher of all as he comes off a three-hit shutout over the Twins last Saturday. Boston will look to Curt Schilling to stop the slide, but Schilling is just 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA over his last five starts while allowing the opposition to hit .349 against him. The A's look like a good underdog pick (+145) to finish off the sweep according to Dunkel, which has Oakland favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+145). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, JUNE 7

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.908; Washington (Chico) 15.402
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+155); Over

Game 953-954: Houston at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 15.149; Colorado (Fogg) 15.554
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+155); Over

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.667; NY Mets (Maine) 16.118
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Hill) 15.742; Atlanta (James) 14.869
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); Under

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Lohse) 14.248; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.269
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lowry) 16.460; Arizona (Hernandez) 17.915
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Under

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuo) 16.387; San Diego (Peavy) 18.010
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-240); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-240); Under

Game 965-966: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Perez) 14.792; Cleveland (Carmona) 17.252
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-290); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-290); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Jackson) 15.816; Toronto (Burnett) 15.534
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-245); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+245); Over

Game 969-970: Boston at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Schilling) 16.326; Oakland (Blanton) 16.838
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+145); Under

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mussina) 16.497; White Sox (Contreras) 14.542
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Maroth) 17.894; Texas (Loe) 15.157
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 11
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Over

[Udog]

Baseball Today - June 7


SCOREBOARD

Thursday, June 7

Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (7:10 p.m. EDT). Cole Hamels squares off against John Maine in a matchup of NL East rivals.

STARS

Wednesday

- Justin Verlander and Gary Sheffield, Tigers. Verlander threw seven shutout innings and Sheffield had a pair of homers and five RBIs in a 10-0 win at Texas.

- Carl Crawford, Devil Rays, drove in four runs and Tampa Bay won 6-2 over Toronto.

- Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees, threw a five-hitter, leading New York to a 5-1 win in Chicago.

- Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, hit a go-ahead, three-run homer in the seventh inning, rallying Philadelphia to a 4-2 victory over New York.

- Brandon Webb and Chris Young, Diamondbacks. Young hit a solo homer a night after his game-ending shot in the 10th and Webb threw seven scoreless innings in Arizona's 1-0 win over San Francisco.

500

Trevor Hoffman became the first major leaguer with 500 career saves when he closed out the San Diego Padres' 5-2 victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday night. Hoffman set the career record with his 479th save on Sept. 28 against Pittsburgh, breaking Lee Smith's old mark of 478. Hoffman finished 2006 season with 482.

LIFTOFF

Roger Clemens appeared set to make his 2007 major league debut Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates after throwing 54 pitches during batting practice at the New York Yankees' minor league complex Wednesday. The seven-time Cy Young Award winner made 21 throws in the outfield and eight warmup tosses Wednesday before his 20-minute batting practice session against players from the Yankees' extended spring training team.

SIDELINED

The Chicago White Sox placed third baseman Joe Crede on the 15-day disabled list because of lower back inflammation on Wednesday. The 29-year-old Crede has a history of back problems, and it's been a nagging issue all season. After deciding not to have offseason surgery to repair two herniated discs, he is hitting .216 with four homers and 22 RBIs - a steep drop from last year when he batted .283 with 30 homers and 94 RBIs.

BOUNCE BACK

Carlos Zambrano threw 6 2-3 innings and struck out a season-high nine in Chicago's 6-2 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. The right-hander melted down in his last start, giving up a career-high 13 hits Friday against Atlanta and getting into a dugout skirmish with catcher Michael Barrett. The hostilities continued in the clubhouse, and Barrett sustained a cut lip and went to a hospital for stitches.

SLUMPING

The New York Mets lost their season-high third straight and fourth in five games, 4-2 to Philadelphia on Wednesday. ... The White Sox have lost nine of 11 after a 5-1 loss to New York. ... Texas lost 10-0 to Detroit and have lost 11 of 14, leaving them with the worst record in the major leagues at 21-38.

STREAKING

Philadelphia's Adam Eaton improved to 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his career against the Mets after a 4-2 win on Wednesday. ... St. Louis has won six of seven and pulled five games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central with a 6-4 win over Cincinnati. ... Arizona won for the 11th time in 12 games, 1-0 at home against San Francisco.

SNAPPED

Luis Castillo's major league-record errorless streak for second basemen ended at 143 games in Minnesota's 8-5 win over Los Angeles.

SPEAKING

''If this is the precedent that's going to be set - that if you do an interview and talk out against Major League Baseball and we don't like your answers, we're going to punish you even worse - I think it's a joke.'' - New York Yankees pitcher Mike Myers on commissioner Bud Selig deferring a decision on whether to discipline Jason Giambi for his remarks about steroids, saying how the slugger deals with former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell and his investigation into illegal enhancing drugs will be taken into account.

SEASONS

June 7

1885 - The American Association allowed pitchers to throw overhand.

1906 - The Chicago Cubs scored 11 runs in the first inning off New York Giants aces Christy Mathewson and Joe McGinnity and went on to a 19-0 victory.

1931 - The Philadelphia Athletics stranded 18 base runners in a 12-2 victory over the Detroit Tigers.

1936 - The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Indians played 16 innings without recording a strikeout. The Yankees won 5-4.

1938 - Cleveland pitcher Johnny Allen walked off the mound in the second inning and didn't return after plate umpire Bill McGowan wanted Allen's dangling sweat shirt sleeve to be cut off because it was distracting Boston Red Sox hitters. Allen was fined $250 by manager Ossie Vitt and the shirt ended up in the Hall of Fame.

1950 - The Boston Red Sox collected 42 total bases, including six home runs and 23 hits in a 20-4 rout of the St. Louis Browns.

1970 - Vic Davalillo of the St. Louis Cardinals got a pinch hit in the seventh inning - twice - in the same game. The Cardinals beat the Padres, 10-7.

1972 - Gene Alley's bases-loaded walk gave the Pittsburgh Pirates a 1-0, 18-inning victory over the San Diego Padres.

1982 - Steve Garvey of the Los Angeles Dodgers became the fifth major leaguer to play in 1,000 consecutive games.

1983 - Philadelphia's Steve Carlton struck out Lonnie Smith of the St. Louis Cardinals in the third inning for career strikeout No. 3,522, overtaking Nolan Ryan as the career strikeout king. St. Louis, however, beat the Phillies, 2-1.

1989 - Ernie Whitt had three hits and drove in three runs as the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-2 in the first game in major league history played indoors and outdoors on the same day. With the threat of rain, the SkyDome's $100 million retractable roof was closed.

2006 - Pitcher Jason Grimsley was released by the Arizona Diamondbacks, a day after his home was searched by federal agents following his admission he used human growth hormone, steroids and amphetamines.

2006 - Colorado tied a major league record with five sacrifice flies in a 16-9 win over Pittsburgh. Seattle set the mark against Oakland on Aug. 7, 1988.

Today's birthdays: Mark Lowe, 24; Tyler Johnson, 26; Odalis Perez, 30.

[Udog]

NBA
Hot Lines


Thursday, June 7


Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs (-7 ½, 180)

The pictures tell the story. Cavs head coach Mike Brown was Gregg Popovich’s assistant in San Antonio between 2000 and 2003 and it shows in the defense he currently runs in Cleveland. Just ask the Spurs.

"Some of the parts are the same," Tim Duncan told reporters in San Antonio after watching video of the Cavaliers over recent days. "OK, a lot of the parts are the same. Basically, they run the Spurs' defense."

That’s a good thing. San Antonio has won three titles over the last decade largely due to its defensive presence and mimicking a champ is rarely a bad idea.

"You see the high-scoring teams and they look pretty during the regular season, and they have great records, but the formula to success is teams that defend usually are the teams that win," Brown told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "I've believed that from Day 1."

The Cavaliers listened to Brown and the team’s backers have reaped the benefits: a league-best 12-4 record against the spread in the postseason. The attention defense has been especially evident when the Cavs open a series – they allowed only 82 points to the Washington Wizards in Game 1 of the first round, 77 to the New Jersey Nets in Game 1 of the second and 79 to the Detroit Pistons to open the Eastern finals.

It looks like a low-scoring affair is brewing at the AT&T Center on Thursday and if that’s the case, 7 ½ points is a lot for Spurs backers to lay. Defense wins championships? It also helps underdogs cover large spreads.

Pick: Cavaliers +7 ½

[Udog]

MLB
Hot Lines


Thursday, June 7


Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

The Philadelphia Phillies are starting to think they might yet be a contender in the NL East and with Cole Hamels on their pitching staff, who could blame them?

Hamels (8-2, 3.55 ERA) is looking to join the top of the major league wins list with his ninth of the season when he takes the mound tonight, as well as trying to lead the Phillies to a three-game sweep of the New York Mets.

In his last start on Saturday, Hamels pitched his second complete game of the season against the Giants and became the first NL pitcher this season to reach eight wins. He allowed just five hits and two runs as Philadelphia won 5-2.

New York will counter with John Maine (6-3, 2.81 ERA), making this a matchup between two of the NL’s best starting pitchers, but the momentum is with the Phillies in this series and they are looking good for the sweep.

Pick: Phillies -104



Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics

It could be complacency, it might be fatigue, but regardless of the problem one fact remains: the Red Sox have now lost four in a row and are staring a series sweep by the Oakland A’s.

Tonight they send veteran Curt Schilling to the mound as they try to avoid their first four-game sweep at Oakland in 75 years. Schilling is 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in eight career starts against the A’s.

Since joining Boston in 2004, Schilling is 22-8 with a 3.22 ERA when he gets the start after a loss.

Boston still has the best record in baseball, but the frustration of losing is starting to get the club. Manager Terry Francona was ejected from the game last night for arguing balls and strikes with home plate umpire Dan Iassogna.

But frustrated or not, this Red Sox team is too potent to stay down for long. Expect a major Boston backlash tonight behind a solid Curt Schilling start.

Pick: Red Sox -135



San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

Barry Bonds is set to return to the San Francisco lineup tonight and it can’t be understated just how much the Giants need his bat right now. In their two losses at Arizona this week, they have managed just three runs and were held scoreless in a 1-0 defeat last night.

The Giants have won just three of their last 12 games, but they have not won in Arizona since Aug. 7 of last season, dropping all five of their games at Chase Field this season.

Still, every run comes to an end at some point and tonight the Giants hand the ball to Chris Lowry in the hope that he can change their fortunes. Lowry is 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA this season, but in eight career appearances against Arizona he has a 5-1 record with a 2.36 ERA.

That statistic, along with the return of Barry Bonds, will give the Giants the boost they need to avoid a three-game sweep.

Pick: Giants +111