Underdog Game of the Year!

[xstac2169]

Ok so this sounds like a tout thing and I do apologize for that. Current record is 0-1 on Game of the Year's(Lost the NHL one). Took a few days off last week as time did not permit me to properly analyze games every day, but had a bad one last time I did post plays. Looking for a fresh start to the week today.

Underdog Game of the Year

Kansas City - Meche +145 10 Units This is a line that I just do not understand. How it can be this high just amazes me. Gil Meche last time out gives up 1 run in 7 innings and gets the loss. He has had a few of those outings this year, and was not always starddled with the loss in all of them. James Shields has pitched very very well for Tampa Bay so far this season. Gil Meche pitched against KC twice last year and was brilliant. He went a total of 15 innings and allowed 4 runs on 9 hits while striking out 14. With almost a K per inning, the man proves he knows how to pitch to this team. Neither team has had many new additions(TB only Delmon Young worth noting and KC Teahan, Buck and Gordon) KC can take 3 out of 4 games in this series today. Neither team's pen is trustworthy and neither pen has pitched more than normal in this series. I look for this to be a low scoring game, with Meche to out-duel the youngin Shields.
KC 4 TB 1

3 Units
Kansas City / Tampa Bay Under 8 -115

Might have some more later, not done looking yet.

GL All!

[Chado1]

BOL with the big play xstac...I like them with Meche today myself!!!

[Lsufan]

Good Luck X

[CarlinsComedy]

Good luck Mr X!

[Chado1]

I think I know why Vegas has Tampa Bay so favored:

In 31 IP lifetime vs. the Devil Rays Gil Meche has given up 38 hits and 19 ER for an ERA of 5.52

James Shields has only faced KC once in his career and in that game he pitched 6 innings and gave up 6 hits without allowing a single run for and ERA of 0.00

Regardless, I still like the play though...BOL buddy!!!

[kbsooner21]

Best of luck X!

[xstac2169]

I think I know why Vegas has Tampa Bay so favored:

In 31 IP lifetime vs. the Devil Rays Gil Meche has given up 38 hits and 19 ER for an ERA of 5.52

James Shields has only faced KC once in his career and in that game he pitched 6 innings and gave up 6 hits without allowing a single run for and ERA of 0.00

Regardless, I still like the play though...BOL buddy!!!

I did see the stats from the game last year with Shields pitching against KC. I think KC has a lot of new faces this year, Meche included that Shields did not see last year. Buck the Catcher, Teahan in Right, Gordon full time at 3b, Tony Pena Jr is mostly a defensive asset but is nonetheless new. Everyone has to lose sometime and today is Shield's day to do just that. This was just one of those lines that I saw and immediately double checked to make sure I was not looking at twice. I do not play underdogs a lot at all so this is rare for me, but I do feel KC gets the better of Tampa Bay today.

[Spearit]

X-Man- Nice writeup!
I kind of sized up my take of the game.
Hope it is informative and as you will see I am on the Under in this game. I have no play on the side !

Meche 1.41 ERA away, 2.76 ERA Day Last 3 7.02 (mostly due to a big 5 run inning)3.00 ERA

Shields 3.44 Home, 1.80 Day, 3.13 Last 3 3.13 ERA

Advantage to Shields in day and last 3
Advantage to Meche in away versus home

Whip - Consistent advantage to Shields but somewhat close.

Batting Last 10
KC 5-4-1 Over/ Under
Runs Last 10 3-2-1-4-1-2-0-4-9-1
Take out the top and the bottom and top numbers and it is 1-1-1-2-2-3-4-4.
Both 4's were winners!
TB is 4-5-1 Over/Under Last 10 with Runs
1-13-4-11-6-2-5-1-4-5.
Lets take out a couple on each side.
2-4-4-5-5-6

From this we acquire only that the teams they played were a factor and that TB was more of the aggressor in run production. TB played the Chicago White Sox and Detroit.
KC played Seattle and Baltimore.

Trends:
Devil Rays are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Devil Rays are 5-2 in Shields' last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Devil Rays are 5-11 in Shields' last 16 starts with 4 days of rest.
Devil Rays are 2-7 in Shields' last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Devil Rays are 1-5 in Shields' last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Devil Rays are 1-7 in Shields' last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 overall.
Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Royals are 4-1 in Meche's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Royals are 0-5 in Meche's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Conclusion: Though both pitchers have shown some early promise their clubs are saddled in last place or thereabouts.
The best that I can see for the game is on the Under.

Under is 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0-1 in Shields' last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Shields' last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1 in Shields' last 5 starts overall.
Under is 9-3 in Shields' last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Under is 7-0-2 in Rapuano's last 9 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.

Under is 5-1 in Meche's last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1 in Meche's last 5 starts as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Meche's last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Meche's last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

[xstac2169]

Very nice write up Spear and I agree with you totally. Meche has not had many rough outings this year and Shields has pitched very well. I do not think anyone thought Meche would do this, but maybe the smaller market provides less pressure for him and he is working better in that environment. Might consider bumping the under to a 5 unit play right before game time.

[tash]

Gl with the Royals X !

[Spark]

Good Luck x .. i like the under also

[Kaptain]

gl to ya today....kapt

[jt4545]

Good Luck With The Udgy

[xstac2169]

Guess I'm gonna take the loss with the Royals here today even though 1 run should not have scored for Tampa Bay. All DeJesus had to do was squeeze the ball in his glove. He would have had all the time to make a good throw to double up Navarro. The Royals probably should not be in this game right now if Tampa Bay could have found some holes because they have been banging the ball around all day. So I guess this is one of those happy to still be in it but really should not be close games.

[Spearit]

Lock and Load! Close game!