Monday Trends and Indexes 06/04

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, June 4

Good Luck on day #155 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Monday

It isn't as easy as it looks, but all of us who like sports and like talking about it would love to make our living hosting a radio sports talk show. Here are what I think are six traits of a good radio sports talk host..........

-- A good talk show host is like a good point guard; he is there to entertain the audience, but not by dominating the conversation but by making his teammates (callers, guests) look good. He is a true facilitator of discussion.

-- Good listener. You have to let the caller make his point, get his opinion. A bad host interrupts his callers to make a point himself. Let the caller be the star for 30 seconds.

-- On the other hand, 30 seconds is about it; move callers in and out, keep things moving, but always make a caller feel as if he's a welcomed guest into your home.

-- Get good guests, then let them carry things. If you have regular listeners, they're going to hear your opinions a lot, so get good expert guests, ask good questions, pick their brains. Don't try to impress a guest with how smart you are.

-- Be informed. If a caller has a question, know enough to either tell him/her the answer, or know where to find it. Do not be afraid to say the words, "I don't know." Just don't have to say it too much.

-- Sports are fun; people are passionate about it. A host is a better listen when he is passionate about things, even if you disagree with him. Nothing entertains like a spirited discussion/argument between smart, opinionated people.

[pm530]

Monday's list of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.........

13) A wise person I once knew was fond of saying, "When in doubt, don't." As I type this, it says on ESPNews "Donovan considering return to Florida." That didn't take very long. If he isn't sure he should leave, then he shouldn't leave.

12) Anaheim's Chris Pronger is suspended for Game 4 of the Stanely Cup finals, which gives Ottawa big boost in attempt to tie series Monday night. Ducks have to find way to replace his thirty minutes of solid defense.

11) Lets face it, the league needs a long series to promote the fact that hockey is an exciting sport. They need an overtime in Game 7, and then a dramatic ending. Of course, what they need more is Chicago or New York to get a stronger team.

10) New York State legalized scalping, which is great news for ticket brokers, lousy news for average Joes who like to go to sporting events without mortgaging the house. Now the big brokers will buy up tickets to the best events, passing on the cost to those of us wealthy/stupid enough to pay the tab.

9) Let me see, Roger Clemens didn't pitch against Boston or the White Sox, but might pitch against the Pirates Saturday. That figures. He doesn't start getting paid until they put him on the 40-man roster, so that groin injury better heal.

8) When the heads of FOX, ESPN find out that Red Sox and Bronx Bombers don't meet for another 83 days, panic will set in and emergency meetings will be held. Fox executives will be stunned to learn there are actually 30 major league teams.

7) A total of 87,591 fans attended eight Arena Football games this weekend; Colorado at Utah is ninth game, Monday night on ESPN2. An average of 10,949 fans attended, with a high of 16,821 in New Orleans, a low of 4,736 in Las Vegas.

6) Whats with the hostility this year in baseball? There have been lot of issues with umpires, the whole Cub fracas in the dugout, just a lot of unrest. It isn't even summer yet. Wait til the weather gets hot and teams drop out of the race.

5) The first event in World Series of Poker ended, with a guy from Chicago winning the casino employees' event, winning a cool $104,701........Event 3 has 2,998 entries, the largest event ever that wasn't a Main Event. Thats 2,998 people paying the $1,500 buy-in, for a purse of $4,497,000, minus whatever the casino takes out for dealers and such.....

4) The NBA Finals don't start until Thursday, why I am really not sure. Do they need five days to get ready? If finals go to seven games, they end less than a week before the draft.

3) College baseball games take almost as long as games with Bronx Bombers and Red Sox. At least the college kids have a built-in excuse; aluminum bats.

2) A malfunctioning satellite dish is a bad thing, especially on a rainy weekend, which is why as of this Wednesday, there will be no more dish on this house. At some point next week, we'll do a tale of the tape between DirecTV and digital cable.

1) Quote of the Day:
"The charismatic leader is the anti-leader, in the sense that he leads everyone into leadership." David Cooper, 1970.

[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Monday, June 4

Hot Pitchers
-- Zito is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts.
-- Braves are 7-0 with Hudson if they score four or more runs.
-- Lowe is 3-2, 2.83 in his last six starts.
-- Marquis is 2-0, 2.76 in five road starts.

-- Shields is 3-0, 2.42 in his last eight starts.
-- Bedard is 1-1, 1.93 in his last six starts.
-- Haren is 6-0, 1.52 in his last nine starts. Red Sox won last three Tavarez starts (2-0, 3.46).
-- Angels won last four Weaver starts, scoring 30 runs. Bonser has 2.41 RA in his last three starts; Minnesota won his last five starts, scoring 45 runs.

Cold Pitchers
-- Phillies lost five of Lieber's last six starts.
-- Obermueller is 0-3, 7.46 in his last five starts.
-- Maholm is 1-5, 6.42 in his last seven starts.
-- Bush is 1-5, 6.18 in his last seven starts.

-- Meche is 0-3, 7.02 in his last three starts.
-- Garland is 0-1, 7.43 in his last two starts. Igawa is 1-1, 9.45 in five starts this season.
-- Hernandez has 6.30 RA in four starts since coming off DL.

Totals
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Phillies' last eleven games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last dozen Florida road games.
-- Under is 6-2 in Lowe's road starts.
-- Five of last six Cub road games stayed under the total.

-- Four of last five Royal games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 15 White Sox games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-1-2 in Orioles' last thirteen road games.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Boston games.
-- Last five Minnesota road games stayed under the total.


Hot Teams
-- Phillies won last two games, scoring fourteen runs.
-- Braves won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Brewers won three of their last four games.

-- Royals won eight of last eleven road games.
-- Mariners won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Oakland won six of its last nine home games.
-- Angels won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Giants lost thirteen of their last nineteen road games.
-- Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Pirates lost four of their last five games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last seven games.

-- Devil Rays are 1-4 in game after their last five wins.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last ten games. Bronx is 9-15 in its last twenty-four road games.
-- Orioles lost their last three games, scoring nine runs.
-- Red Sox lost three of last four games, but are 8-2 in their last ten road contests.
-- Twins lost last two games; they scored six runs in their last three contests.

[pm530]

Hockey – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Monday, June 4

Stanley Cup Finals

Ottawa went scoreless for five periods before tying game 1-1 in first period Saturday, they went on to win, making home sides 3-0 in series, and with Anaheim D Pronger out here, Ducks will be hard pressed to replace his 30 minutes on blue line, giving Senators shot at evening series. Ottawa scored three goals on 12 shots in second period Saturday; will that carry over to their next game? Ducks once again dominated faceoffs, winning 60% for game, and 18 of 28 in neutral zone.

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Monday, June 4

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San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (1:05 PM ET)
San Francisco starter Barry Zito is 2-3 with a 4.80 ERA in five road starts this season. The left-hander picked up a 3-0 victory over the Mets at Shea Stadium in his last outing, throwing seven shutout innings in the process. SLIGHT EDGE: PHILLIES
Zito has allowed just one run in his last two starts combined, picking up victories over Houston and New York. EDGE: GIANTS
The Phillies have lost eight of Jon Lieber's 10 starts this season, including his past two outings. He's allowed nine runs and 19 hits in his last 11 2/3 innings. BIG EDGE: GIANTS
The UNDER is 4-1 in Zito's last five road starts.


Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (3:10 PM ET)
Kansas City starter Gil Meche is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. EDGE: D-RAYS
Meche is an even 1-1 with a 1.41 ERA in five road starts this season. EDGE: UNDER
After winning five out of Meche's first seven starts this season, the Royals have lost three straight - being outscored 19-6 in the process. EDGE: D-RAYS
Tampa Bay starter James Shields is 1-0 in his career against Kansas City, throwing six shutout inning and striking out five in one start. EDGE: D-RAYS & UNDER
The Royals are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings.


Florida Marlins at Atlanta Braves (7:05 PM ET)
Marlins right-hander Sergio Mitre is a perfect 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in four road starts this season. EDGE: MARLINS & UNDER
Mitre has been knocked around for 10 runs and 18 hits in just 14 2/3 career innings against the Braves. EDGE: BRAVES & OVER
Atlanta starter Tim Hudson is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.10 ERA in nine career starts against Florida. He picked up an 8-4 victory over the Marlins on April 15 at Turner Field, allowing just one run in seven innings. BIG EDGE: BRAVES
The Braves are 7-1 in Hudson's last eight starts versus the Marlins.


Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 PM ET)
Out of eight home series this season, Pittsburgh as won only one - a three-game sweep of Houston from April 24-26. EDGE: DODGERS
Los Angeles starter Derek Lowe is 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh, three of them at PNC Park. EDGE: DODGERS
Pittsburgh first baseman Adam LaRoche went 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBIs on Sunday. He's batting .354 in his last 13 home games. EDGE: PIRATES
Pirates starter Paul Maholm is 0-3 in his last four starts, including a loss to San Diego on Wednesday when he allowed four runs in 7 2/3 innings of the Pirates' 9-0 defeat. EDGE: DODGERS
The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games versus a left-handed starter.


New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (ESPN | 7:05 PM ET)
New York starter Matt DeSalvo is 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA in three road starts this season. The Yankees have lost four out of five games that he's appeared in. EDGE: WHITE SOX
Chicago right-hander Jon Garland is 2-5 with a 3.42 ERA in seven career starts against New York. He picked up a 4-1 home victory over the Yankees on May 17, allowing just one run and six hits over seven innings. SLIGHT EDGE: YANKEES & UNDER
Garland has been battling with his control in his last three starts, issuing 10 free passes in his last 19 1/3 innings. EDGE: OVER
The UNDER is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings.


Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (10:05 PM ET)
Minnesota right-hander Boof Bonser is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA in four road starts this season. EDGE: TWINS
After starting the season without collecting a victory in his first six starts, Bonser has come away with four straight victories. EDGE: TWINS
Angels starter Jered Weaver is a disappointing 1-1 with a 6.16 ERA in four home starts this season. SLIGHT EDGE: OVER
The Angels have rattled off five straight victories with Weaver on the hill, outscoring opponents 34-18 in the process. EDGE: ANGELS & OVER
The Twins are 9-1 in Bonser's last 10 starts as an underdog.

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[pm530]

Hockey – Tips & Trends

NHL
Tips and trends


Monday, June 4

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Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators (NBC | 8 PM ET)
Anaheim will be without star defenseman Chris Pronger tonight after being suspended for a game due to his forearm to the head of Dean McAmmond. The Ducks are 7-7-3 without him in the lineup this season. EDGE: SENATORS
The Ducks rattled off five straight wins earlier in the postseason after Pronger sat out Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals due to another suspension against Detroit. EDGE: DUCKS
The Ducks are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday games.
The Senators are 8-1 in their last nine playoff games as a favorite.
The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the Senators' last nine games playing on one days rest.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Monday, June 4

National League

San Francisco at Philadelphia, 1:05 ET
Barry Zito (L) vs. Jon Lieber (R)
Zito: SF 0-8 Away when the total is 9 to 9.5
Lieber: Phi 8-1 at home vs. Giants

Florida at Atlanta, 7:05 ET
Sergio Mitre (R) vs. Tim Hudson (R)
Mitre: Fla 22-8 Over vs. division opponents
Hudson: 1-7 TSR in June

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Derek Lowe (R) vs. Paul Maholm (L)
Lowe: LAD 18-4 Over vs. Pirates
Maholm: 12-3 Over when the total is 7 to 8.5

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, 8:05 ET
Jason Marquis (R) vs. Dave Bush (R)
Marquis: Cubs 5-1 Over vs. Milwaukee
Bush: 8-0 Over after giving up 1 or less ER last outing


American League

Kansas City at Tampa Bay, 3:10 ET
Gil Meche (R) vs. James Shields (R)
Meche: 1-5 TSR, 5.52 ERA vs. TB
Shields: TB 8-2 vs. Kansas City

NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox, 7:05 ET
Kei Igawa (L) vs. Jon Garland (R)
Igawa: NYY 14-5 Under as road favorite of -110 or higher
Garland: 18-7 TSR as an underdog

Baltimore at Seattle, 10:05 ET
Erik Bedard (L) vs. Felix Hernandez (R)
Bedard: 2-12 TSR vs. AL West
Hernandez: Sea 9-3 vs. lefties

Boston at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Julian Tavarez (R) vs. Dan Haren (R)
Tavarez: Bos 18-7 Under Away
Haren: 3-0 TSR, 1.64 ERA L3 starts

Minnesota at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Boof Bonser (R) vs. Jered Weaver (R)
Bonser: 3-0 TSR, 1.93 ERA L3 starts
Weaver: LAA 19-7 Under on Monday

[pm530]

Hockey – Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet


Monday, June 4th

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Stanley Cup Finals
Game Three
Anaheim Leads, 2-1
TV: VER
Anaheim at Ottawa, 8:05 EST

Anaheim:
9-0 SU revenging a road loss by 2+ goals
19-7 SU when leading in a playoff series

Ottawa:
19-8 Over at home off 3+ non-conference games
1-3 SU vs. Anaheim

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


Monday, June 4

Colorado (8-5) @ Utah (6-7) -- Danny White's Utah club snapped five-game skid with upset win in Orlando last week; they lost last three home games, by 14,1,7 points. Blaze is 1-4 when total stays under, 5-3 when it goes over. Colorado has yet to have bye, is on road for fourth time in five weeks; they're 3-4 on road. In their last eleven games, over is 7-3-1. Crush lost last four times they didn't intercept at least two passes.

[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Monday, June 4

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COLORADO (8 - 5) at UTAH (6 - 7) - 6/4/2007, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Hockey Sports News

NHL
NHL Sports News


Monday, June 4

Senators host Ducks in Game 4

The Anaheim Ducks were looking to take a 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup final on Saturday night. Instead, the Ottawa Senators emerged with a 5-3 home victory, and they'll now be looking to tie up the series with another home win in Game 4 on Monday.

Ottawa had been listed as a -180 favorite in Game 3 at Scotiabank Place on Saturday night, despite their two straight losses in Anaheim to open the best-of-seven set. However, it was the Ducks who opened the scoring; Andy McDonald picked up a power-play marker just five minutes into the first period to stake his team to a 1-0 lead.

The Sens managed to tie the game before the first period came to an end, with Chris Neil scoring his second goal of the playoffs. Corey Perry gave the Ducks the lead again five minutes into the second period, but Mike Fisher knotted the score at 2-2 just 30 seconds later. The see-saw battle continued with Ryan Getzlaf scoring his seventh for the Ducks at 7:38 of the second, and Daniel Alfredsson replying for Ottawa at 16:14.

Ottawa, though, finally got a lead when Dean McAmmond scored with just over a minute left in the second period. Anaheim then only managed to direct three shots at Sens goalie Ray Emery in the third, and he stopped them all for the victory. Anton Volchenkov had an insurance marker at 8:22 of third, and he was the night's First Star.

Emery stopped 19-of-22 shots for the Senators in the win, while Jean-Sebastien Giguere made 24 saves off 29 shots for the Ducks. Neil earned Second Star honors, and Getzlaf (who had a goal and an assist) was the Third Star for Anaheim in the loss. Ottawa's big line of Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley was held to just one point in the victory (Alfredsson's goal), as they continue to have problems in this series.

The home team is now 3-0 in the Stanley Cup final; the Ducks came away with 3-2 and 1-0 victories in the first two games of the series out in California. The Senators will be hoping that trend continues for Game 4 on Monday night at Scotiabank Place. Here is how the rest of the schedule for this series looks (with all games starting at 8pm ET) . . .

Game 4 - Monday, June 4 - Anaheim at Ottawa
Game 5 - Wednesday, June 6 - Ottawa at Anaheim
Game 6 - Saturday, June 9 - Anaheim at Ottawa (if necessary)
Game 7 - Monday, June 11 - Ottawa at Anaheim (if necessary)

The Ducks saw Chris Kunitz return to the ice on Saturday night, after the forward had missed the previous seven games with a broken finger. Kunitz, though, played just over four minutes on the night (with no shots on goal and a -1 rating), and he didn't play after the second period after suffering a lower-body injury. His status for Game 4 is now up in the air.

Of more concern for Anaheim, though, is the suspension the league handed down to Chris Pronger on Sunday afternoon. The star defenseman will miss Game 4 after knocking Sens forward McAmmond out of action with a blow to the head in the third period on Saturday. Pronger, who didn't receive a penalty on the play, also served a one-game ban during the Western Conference final for an ugly head shot on Red Wings forward Tomas Holmstrom. McAmmond is doubtful to suit up for Ottawa Monday night.

Watch for the Senators to be listed as favorites again for Game 4. Saturday's game was an OVER result for bettors - the posted total of 5 goals was easily surpassed by the two teams. Check your favorite books for the latest lines and totals for the Stanley Cup final.

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Lou Piniella's dirt-kicking episode appears to have kicked some life into the Cubs as Chicago snapped its six-game losing streak yesterday with a 10-run, 13-hit outburst against the Braves. The signs of life are timely for Chicago as the Cubs open a series with Central front-runner Milwaukee today. They'll face Dave Bush, who was roughed up by the Cubs for six runs in a 9-3 loss back in April and has been inconsistent (3-5, 5.64) on the season. One thing that has been consistent for Chicago is Derek Lee, who comes in with a league-leading .361 average and has been red-hot against the Brewers (16-for-28 with seven doubles and seven RBI) thus far. The Cubs look like a good underdog pick (+127) in this one according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+127). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, JUNE 4

Game 901-902: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.392; Philadelphia (Lieber) 15.904
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Over

Game 903-904: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Obermueller) 14.841; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.623
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lowe) 16.645; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.353
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); Under

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Marquis) 15.038; Milwaukee (Bush) 14.376
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-127); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+127); Under

Game 909-910: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 13.381; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.148
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Under

Game 911-912: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Desalvo) 15.713; White Sox (Garland) 14.458
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 913-914: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bedard) 17.283; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.589
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-126); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+126); Over

Game 915-916: Boston at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Tavarez) 18.107; Oakland (Haren) 17.430
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-158); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+158); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Bonser) 18.240; LA Angels (Weaver) 18.413
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-165); Under

[Udog]

NHL


For Nhl's Anaheim, Pronger Is Suspended For Game 4

[Udog]

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Monday, June 4


HOT

Dan Haren (Oakland Athletics) – Haren has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year going 6-2 with a league-best 1.64 ERA. He has won his last three outings allowing a total of just four earned runs and pitching into at least the seventh in each. He will face the Boston Red Sox tonight with books pricing him as a –151 home favorite.

Boof Bonser (Minnesota Twins) – When you think of the most dependable pitcher on the Twins’ staff, the name 'Boof' certainly isn’t the first that comes to mind. Especially with Johan Santana on the roster. But while Santana has had his struggles this year, Bonser has been solid and has gone 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA over his last three. He faces the Los Angeles Angels tonight as a +146 underdog.

James Shields (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) – Shields has been a workhorse for the D-Rays this season, pitching into at least the seventh inning in each of his last eight starts and in all but two this year. He's also thrown two complete games, one of which came in his last outing when he held the Detroit Tigers to three earned runs on seven hits. Tampa is a –150 favorite against the Kansas City Royals tonight.

COLD

Gil Meche (Kansas City Royals) – Meche has dropped his last three starts, allowing at least five earned runs twice. In his most recent start he went7 1/3 innings allowing just one earned run on four hits, but the offense didn’t show up and he took a 3-0 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight he faces the Devil Rays as a +142 underdog.

Dave Bush (Milwaukee Brewers) - The Brewers have lost four in a row and six of their last seven games with Bush on the mound. Of those outings, Bush has allowed three or more earned runs in five of them inflating his ERA to an ugly 5.64 on the season. Tonight Milwaukee will face the Chicago Cubs and Bush is 1-3 with a 3.89 ERA in his career against the Cubbies. Books have the Brewers listed as –129 favorites.