Sunday Trends and Indexes 06/03

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, June 3

Good Luck on day #154 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Sunday, June 3rd

National League

Arizona at NY Mets, 1:10 ET
Doug Davis (L) vs. Oliver Perez (L)
Davis: Ari 20-8 Under in road games
Perez: NYM 16-4 vs. Arizona

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh, 1:35 ET
Brad Penny (R) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (L)
Penny: 21-6 TSR after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing
Gorzelanny: Pit 17-4 Over vs. Dodgers

San Francisco at Philadelphia, 1:35 ET
Tim Linecum (R) vs. Freddy Garcia (R)
Linecum: SF 1-7 at Philadelphia
Garcia: 14-2 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest

San Diego at Washington, 7:05 ET
David Wells (L) vs. Jason Simontacchi (R)
Wells: 6-1 TSR, 2.55 ERA vs. Washington
Simontacchi: Wash 1-7 at home vs. SD

Florida at Milwaukee, 2:05 ET
Dontrelle Willis (L) vs. Ben Sheets (R)
Willis: 1-8 TSR as an underdog of +125 to +175
Sheets: 12-3 Over at home

St. Louis at Houston, 2:05 ET
Braden Looper (R) vs. Jason Jennings (R)
Looper: StL 18-7 Over in June
Jennings: 0-3 TSR, 2.12 ERA this season

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET
Lance Cormier (R) vs. Sean Marshall (L)
Cormier: Atl 7-1 at Cubs
Marshall: 0-9 TSR in day games

Cincinnati at Colorado, 3:05 ET
Matt Belisle (R) vs. Rodrigo Lopez (R)
Belisle: 4-1 TSR, 3.78 ERA in road starts
Lopez: Col 4-10 when the total is 10 or higher


American League

Chicago White Sox at Toronto, 1:05 ET
John Danks (L) vs. Shawn Marcum (R)
Danks: ChW 26-13 Under as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Marcum: Tor 10-0 Under as a home favorite of -125 to -150

Detroit at Cleveland, 1:05 ET
Jeremy Bonderman (R) vs. Jeremy Sowers (L)
Bonderman: 5-12 TSR after giving up 2 runs or less in BB Outings
Sowers: Cle 13-4 in day games

Kansas City at Tampa Bay, 1:40 ET
Scott Elarton (R) vs. J.P. Howell (L)
Elarton: KC 17-50 Away vs. lefties
Howell: TB 7-2 at home vs. KC

Baltimore at LA Angels, 3:35 ET
Jeremy Guthrie (R) vs. Erwin Santana (R)
Guthrie: Bal 28-62 as an underdog of +100 to +150
Santana: 29-10 TSR in home starts

Minnesota at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Johan Santana (L) vs. Chad Gaudin (R)
Santana: 44-17 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175
Gaudin: Oak 18-6 Under at home

Texas at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Robinson Tejada (R) vs. Ryan Feierabend (R)
Tejada: Tex 11-29 as an underdog
Feiebrand: Sea 3-0 vs. Tejada

NY Yankees at Boston, 8:05 ET ESPN
Andy Pettitte (L) vs. Josh Beckett (R)
Pettitte: 1-12 TSR after giving up 2 runs or less in BB Outings
Beckett: Bos 30-8 as a favorite of -110 or higher

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Sunday, June 3

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Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (1:07 PM ET)
Chicago starter John Danks is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in five road starts this season. He allowed a season-high six runs in just 3 1/3 innings in a 9-2 road loss to Minnesota last timeout. EDGE: BLUE JAYS
Danks gives up quite a bit of home runs, as opponents have gone deep on him 10 times already this season in 51 innings. EDGE: OVER
The Blue Jays have won three straight games with starter Shaun Marcum on the hill, outscoring opponents 21-8 in the process. EDGE: BLUE JAYS & OVER
The UNDER is 21-9-1 in the last 31 meetings in Toronto.



Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets (1:10 PM ET)
Arizona starter Doug Davis is 1-5 on the road this season, but carries a solid 3.34 ERA away from Chase Field. EDGE: METS & UNDER
Davis is an even 1-1 with a 6.26 ERA in five career starts against the Mets. EDGE: OVER
Mets left-hander Oliver Perez is 1-4 with a 5.22 ERA in seven career starts against the Diamondbacks. EDGE: D-BACKS
Perez has been brilliant at Shea Stadium this season, going 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA in six starts this season. EDGE: METS
The UNDER is 7-1 in Davis' last eight starts overall.



Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (1:10 PM ET)
Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman is 6-9 with a 6.29 ERA in 18 career starts against Cleveland. EDGE: INDIANS & OVER
The Tigers offense has produced 43 runs in Bonderman's last four starts, which have been all wins. EDGE: TIGERS & OVER
Indians left-hander Jeremy Sowers picked up a victory in his only career outing against the Tigers, going six innings and allowing just two runs. EDGE: INDIANS & UNDER
Sowers is 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA in three home starts in 2007 and was knocked around for seven runs and eight hits in his last outing at Jacobs Field on May 19. EDGE: TIGERS
The OVER is 11-3-1 in Bonderman's last 15 starts versus the Indians.



Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 PM ET)
Los Angeles starter Brad Penny is 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA in five road starts this season, including a 10-0 road victory over Washington. BIG EDGE: DODGERS
Penny has thrown 13 1/3 shutout innings in his last two starts after suffering his first defeat of the season on May 18 to the Los Angeles Angels. EDGE: DODGERS & UNDER
Pittsburgh's Tom Gorzelanny is 1-0 with a 7.71 ERA in two career starts against Los Angeles. He was on the winning end of a 7-5 game at Dodger Stadium on April 22, allowing three runs and five hits over six innings. EDGE: OVER
Gorzelanny has been rock solid at home, going 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in five home starts this season. EDGE: PIRATES & UNDER
The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games versus a left-handed starter.



San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (1:35 PM ET)
San Francisco's rookie right-hander Tim Lincecum is a perfect 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in five starts this season. The Giants have won three of his five starts since he was called up from the minors. EDGE: GIANTS
Lincecum was touched up for five runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work against the Phillies in his Major League debut. EDGE: PHILLIES
Phillies starter Freddy Garcia is an even 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. EDGE: OVER
Garcia is in search of his first home victory this season, as he's 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in five tries. EDGE: GIANTS
The Giants are 5-12 in the last 17 meetings.



Florida Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers (2:05 PM ET)
Florida's Dontrelle Willis is 5-1 with a 3.66 ERA in six starts away from Dolphin Stadium this season. The Marlins have scored 16 runs in his last two. EDGE: MARLINS & OVER
Willis has enjoyed pitching against the Brewers in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in four starts. EDGE: MARLINS
Brewers starter Ben Sheets is 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA in eight career starts against the Marlins. SLIGHT EDGE: MARLINS
Sheets is a strong 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in six home starts this season, with the Brewers winning the last three against Atlanta, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. EDGE: BREWERS
The Brewers are 1-5 in Sheets' last six starts versus the Marlins.



Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics (4:05 PM ET)
Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana is 3-1 with a fantastic 1.85 ERA on the road this season for Minnesota. The left-hander has bounced back nicely after losing back-to-back starts to Cleveland and Detroit, by winning consecutive games for the first time this season. EDGE: TWINS & UNDER
Santana is 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA in 14 career appearances (seven starts) against Oakland. EDGE: TWINS & UNDER
Oakland's Chad Gaudin is 3-1 with a solid 2.86 ERA in six home starts this season. The Athletics have won five straight games with him on the hill. EDGE: A'S
The UNDER is 4-0 in Santana's last four starts versus the Athletics.



New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (ESPN | 8:05 PM ET)
Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte is 14-6 with a 3.10 ERA in 24 career starts against the Red Sox, picking up his 14th win in his last outing against them on May 23. He allowed just one run and nine hits in seven innings of work. BIG EDGE: YANKEES
Despite having a 1-3 record on the road in seven starts, Pettitte has a fantastic 2.06 ERA. EDGE: UNDER
Boston's Josh Beckett came back in style in his first start back from a two week stint on the disabled list. He picked up his eighth win of the season with a 4-2 victory over Cleveland. EDGE: RED SOX
The Red Sox have won all nine of Beckett's starts this season, as the right-hander is 5-0 with a 3.11 ERA at home. BIG EDGE: RED SOX
The OVER is 25-8 in the last 33 meetings in Boston.

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Sunday, June 3

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ARIZONA (3 - 10) at LAS VEGAS (2 - 10) - 6/3/2007, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1996.
ARIZONA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Dennis14072]

Morning PM, early thanks!

[pm530]

Pro Basketball (women) – Hot Lines

WNBA
Hot Lines


Sunday, June 3

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Lady luck: Sunday’s best WNBA wagers

Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky (-3 1/2 , 153 )

The Sky are 3-2 ATS this season playing as underdogs in all five games to date. That comes to an end on Sunday with the winless Lynx visiting the Windy City.

Minnesota lost at home on Friday night thanks to 27 percent shooting from the floor and now face an eight-day, four-game road trip. The Lynx are the league’s youngest team and they don’t look ready to assert themselves yet.

The teams met on May 25 in Minneapolis and the Sky won 82-77 as a 7 ½-point underdog. Chicago’s Candice Dupree led the way with 25 points on 12-for-15 shooting and while she’s unlikely to repeat those numbers, Dupree has more teammates to lean on when her stroke’s not there.

Seimone Augustus can’t say the same. The Lynx’s top scorer potted 31 against the Sky, but to no avail. Augustus, Nicole Ohlde and rookie Lindsey Harding combined for 65 of Minnesota’s 77 points with the bulk of the Lynx bordering on invisible.

The one concern for the Sky is guard Stacey Dales, who has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. She’s doubtful for Sunday, though her teammates covered the spread in both games Dales has missed and should be able to go 3-0 ATS without her against the clawless Lynx.

Pick: Sky



Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever ( -11, 152 1/2)

It looks like a mismatch on paper as the 0-5 Mystics meet the 3-0 Fever, but there’s more to Sunday’s game than meets the eye.

There’s change aplenty going down in D.C. Head coach Richie Adubato resigned on Friday afternoon, just hours before Washington lost to the Sky. Tree Rollins takes over on the sidelines for the Mystics.

That topped off a week in which Chasity Melvin was dealt to Chicago and Crystal Robinson, another cog in last season’s playoff-bound Mystics squad, gave up on her playing days to help coach the team. The Mystics also signed former Sky forward Stacey Lovelace to help halt the losing streak.

For their part, the Fever look great. They’ve covered the spread as a favorite in all three wins, thanks to an average margin of victory of 15.3 points. Indiana’s also shooting 49.2 percent on the season to top the WNBA. Two of their three wins, however, have come against Minnesota, making the Fever’s numbers disproportionately attractive.

The Mystics might not pull out the upset win, but they’re shaking things up after a slow start and are getting a friendly line. The teams were only three games apart in the standings last year and this year’s teams aren’t as far apart as the current records would suggest.

Pick: Mystics

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[pm530]

Good Morning Dennis,
Sorry not too much right now.
We should have more in about 4 hours!
Good luck Sunday!

[Dennis14072]

good luck to you sir!

[pm530]

good luck to you sir!

"Sir" !! - - please! pm will do, "sir" was either my father or some guy in the army!

Have a good one!

[Udog]

Good morning, Dennis!

I hate that I tipped you to that first half play on the night it lost! Good luck today!

[Dennis14072]

No problem, went 10-4, mostly using your and PM's baseball hot and cold pitcher information and Kaptain's over call on the hoops. Good Luck today!

[Udog]

Outstanding, Dennis! Way to go! What a day!

The stuff is finally starting to come up, buddy. Give me about two minutes and I can post Streaking Pitchers and Hot Lines.

[Udog]

MLB
Hot Lines


Sunday, June 3


Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (-108, 10 ½)

The Tigers lead the league in batting (.286) and runs scored (317) and if the season ended today, Magglio Ordonez would be a top candidate for the American League MVP. The Tigers' right fielder leads the bigs in batting, RBIs and runs scored. He had four hits, three runs scored and two RBIs in Saturday's 9-5 win.

“We swung the bats well,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland told the Detroit News after the game. “Magglio has been tremendous all year, but a lot of people contributed. It was good to see the bullpen do a good job, too.”

Leyland was looking for a better performance out of his pen after Detroit took a four-run lead into the ninth inning on Friday night and ended up losing 12-11. Closer Todd Jones gave up seven hits and five earned runs in the final inning.

The Tigers have won the last four games starter Jeremy Bonderman has pitched in.

Pick: Tigers +100




Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets (-157, 8 ½)

Would someone please tell the Mets they’re not supposed to win when they have five backups in their lineup? New York was missing all three starting outfielders, their catcher and second baseman but still beat the Diamondbacks 7-1 yesterday.

“We have a great bench,” backup catcher Ramon Castro told the New York Times. “We’re here for a reason.”

New York will need another big day from their role players. Paul Lo Duca will be catching today but the Mets will still have bench players manning the outfield. Right fielder Shawn Green is on the disabled list until June 10th, left fielder Moses Alou is still bothered by a strained hamstring and center fielder Carlos Beltran is day-to-day with a bruised right knee.

Two lefties are scheduled to start today’s contest and that should be good news for Mets backers. New York leads the majors with a .325 batting average versus southpaws while Arizona sits near the bottom with a .244 average.

Pick: Mets –157




Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-133, 10)

What has gotten into Kenny Lofton? The Rangers center fielder is playing like he sold his soul for one more Gold Glove award. The 40-year-old robbed Seattle’s Adrian Beltre of a two-run homer on Friday night and he followed it up with an over-the-shoulder catch that would have made Willie Mays proud in Saturday’s game.

“I used to see Kenny make those catches a lot,” Rangers manager Ron Washington told Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “Tonight he got a good jump on it and he went up there and he brought it back in the ballpark. That saved the game for us right there.”

Beltre, who has been knocking the cover off the ball lately, is not expected to play today. The third baseman is doubtful because of an injured left thumb.

Pick: Rangers +125

[Udog]

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Sunday, June 3


Hot Pitchers

Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox) – Beckett seems to have picked up right where he left off after a stint the disabled list. In his first start back after recovering from a finger injury, Beckett allowed just two earned runs on three hits over seven innings against the Indians, improving to 8-0 on the season. The Red Sox are -133 in the finale of their series with the New York Yankees.

Jeremy Bonderman (Detroit Tigers) – Bonderman started the season with five straight no-decisions. In those outings he was solid but didn’t receive much run support - how things have changed. He has since reeled off four wins in a row with his teammates knocking in a total of 45 runs in those games. Each of his last five trips to the mound has played over the total. His Tigers are +105 in Cleveland today with the total set at 10 ½.

Chad Gaudin (Oakland Athletics) – Gaudin has been almost untouchable lately. He is 4-0 in his last five starts and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his two trips to the hill while giving up just nine hits. The A’s have won Gaudin's last five starts. Today, he’ll be in tough against Johan Santana and the Twins. Books have Oakland listed as a +131 home underdog.

Cold Pitchers

Freddy Garcia (Philadelphia Phillies) – Despite some half decent performances lately, Garcia hasn’t been able to pick up a victory since April 22. He has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last five starts but hasn't been getting any help from his offense. He is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA at home this season where he will face the San Francisco Giants today. Oddsmakers have him priced at –123.

Jeremy Sowers (Cleveland Indians) – Aside from one outing this year, Sowers has been dreadful for the Indians so far. He is 1-5 with an ugly 6.29 ERA and just 14 strikeouts all season. In his last five starts he has allowed a total of 24 earned runs, including six home runs. Despite the struggles, oddsmakers have sided with him today when he faces the Tigers as a –113 favorite.

[Udog]

AFL
Betting System


ARENA FOOTBALL BETTING SYSTEM

100 BETTOR WOULD BE UP 1,200 RIGHT NOW


With this being the only Arena Football game scheduled for today, this fits the NFL criteria for flex scheduling. Arizona and Las Vegas are two of the worst teams in the AFL, with the Rattlers at 3-10 and the Gladiators 2-10. Arizona is just 1-5 on the road having covered three times and Las Vegas has yet to win at home in five tries covering the spread a single time. While this looks ugly on the outside, one man’s junk is another man’s treasure, which is what is happening in this contest.

Arizona has lost four of five with its offensive production steadily declining to 48.8 points per game and has played Under four times in this same span. Las Vegas had a bye last week to celebrate a rare win, beating Utah by a single point. The Gladiators are the worst offensive team in the AFL averaging a mere 45.4 PPG, which has led to them playing Under 9 of 12 times this season.

This Western Division contest fits a very profitable system that has been around for years and delivers consistent winners for Arena Football bettors. It’s simple and to the point and offers many opportunities to knock down winners and build bankrolls.

Play Under on any team when the total is greater than or equal to 110, averaging 6.4 or more yards a play (Las Vegas in this case) , after allowing seven or more yards a play in their previous game.

Thus far in the 2007 the record is 23-10 meaning a bettor placing a $110 wager per game has picked up a cool $1200 dollars just looking for and following this system. The fact is this system has not even reached its normal output compared to other years. In the last five years this system has a 54-18 record (75 %) generating +34.2 units of profit.

This Totals system has come in under the number by an average of 6.5 points in the last five years.

One final exceptional trend shows Las Vegas is 13-2 UNDER vs. bad defenses giving up 55 or more points a game.