Tweet
NCAA write ups
Duke at VIRGINIA(-14.5)
By Rob House, President of I Will Win Sports
Virginia has it's home opener here against Duke, who has 20 returning starters, is an easy chore on paper in this one, but take a second look. Duke always give the Cav's problems, 7-2 ATS the last 9 games.
Remember Duke is a team returning 20 starters who lost 4 ACC games last year by 5 or less points, and all key components return. Duke is 9-3 in road openers ATS the least 12 years and they keep this one close as the Cav's may get caught looking ahead to South Carolina in Week 2. The Cav's are just 3-7 in home openers the last 10 years against the spread. Blue Devils to keep it close, take the points.
PICK: 3 DUKE
Central Michigan at MICHIGAN(-33)
By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
Now on to your free play ....
High expectations surround Michigan this season as it opens the season against Central Michigan on Saturday. The Wolverines are ranked fourth despite some lingering questions on defense and special teams.
Michigan returns 15 of 24 starters, including quarterback John Navarre, leading rusher Chris Perry, and receiver Braylon Edwards. Add in four returning starters on the offensive line, and Michigan boasts one of the more talented offensive groups in the country.
Central Michigan coming off a 4-8 campaign, have significant familiarity with the Wolverines. Central Michigan's hopes for significant improvement will rest in the backfield as junior halfback Terrence Jackson is looking to return to the form of 2001 when he rushed for 1,194 yards.
Michigan is way to fast and strong for Central today. I know that 33 is a lot of wood, but I look for Michigan to be up 21 by halftime.
PICK: 3 MICHIGAN
Miami, Ohio at IOWA (-10')
By Chuck Franklin, Featured Handicapper
Saturday's Free Selection:
MIAMI,OHIO +10' over Iowa
Iowa opened a lot of eyes last year, posting their first-ever 11-win season. They did it despite the fact they surrendered 30 YPG more than did the seven-win squad of 2001. This year a new quarterback is in place with Heisman-runnerup Brad Banks departed. Among the victories last season was a five-point win over Miami,Ohio in Athens. Miami,Ohio is picked this year by conference writers, in a pre-season poll, to win the MAC East. Over the last five years, only five MAC schools have been fortunate enough to win at Big 10 sites. Here comes the sixth. Miami owns the senior leadership along with one of the best college quarterbacks in the game, Ben Roethlisberger, to pull off this upset. Miami's impressive 10-4 ATS road mark makes the RedHawks very attractive. Watch Heisman candidate Roethlisberger key this outright victory!
PICK: 5 MIAMI OF OHIO
Miami of Ohio (+10') at IOWA
PICK: 2 MIAMI OF OHIO
Mississippi (-13) at VANDERBILT
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
HOT DAMN! I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!
Now as promised, here’s that freebie as today Ole Miss will cover against Vanderbilt as these two SEC rivals kickoff their 2003 seasons.
For the Rebs’ Eli Manning, his Heisman Trophy hopes will get off to a great start as he will riddle a Vandy defense that returns just two starters. Last year, he passed for 386 yards, two scores and no picks as Ole Miss racked up 45 points on the Commodores. He’s got a veteran line protecting him and talented backs and receivers including Chris Collins and Bill Flowers, who combined for 108 catches a year ago.
Ole Miss has won nine of 10 SU over Vandy and is 20-11 ATS in conference road games the last three years. The home team is on a 1-7-1 ATS run in this series and the Commodores have dropped 18 straight SEC games. They have just seven seniors on the roster and no upperclassmen in the secondary.
This is one of the best Ole Miss teams in years and they’ll rout Vandy today in Nashville!
PICK: 3 MISSISSIPPI
South Florida (+16) at ALABAMA at Birmingham
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
HOT DAMN! I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!
Now as promised, here’s that freebie as today South Florida will hang tough and stay within the number against Alabama as these two teams meet up at Legion Field in Birmingham.
The Bulls aren’t afraid to go on the road as they demonstrated two years by winning at Pittsburgh. Last season, they upset nationally-ranked Bowling Green and Coach Jim Leavitt has 14 starters back from a team that went 9-2 SU in 2002.
The past two years, South Florida is 17-5 SU and 13-4 ATS. The Bulls have a veteran line and good receivers, which should benefit new quarterback Ronnie Banks.
The Tide makes its 2003 debut after another distraction-filled off-season. Mike Shula steps onto the field for the first time as a head coach and he’ll lead an Alabama team that is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 openers. Sure there’s talent, but Bama is rebuilding along the defensive line and will certainly keep things vanilla with Oklahoma set to visit Tuscaloosa next week.
The Bulls will be within striking range all day and will stay inside this double-digit number.
PICK: 3 SOUTH FLORIDA
Buffalo (+12) at RUTGERS
By Sean Michaels, Featured Handicapper
Now, let's get to your free selection...
Okay, explain this to me. Rutgers hasn't been favored by double digits in over 20 years. Are you kidding me. I just don't see it.
Buffalo returns 18 starters from last year and they are a scrappy bunch. They covered 7 of 8 last year when getting double digits and that is what they are catching here.
I have always cashed in going against teams that are aren't used to laying big wood. It is too tall a tree to chop down.
I like this kid at QB for Buffalo, Randall Secky, who threw for over 2,000 yards last season.
You have a team in Rutgers that finished 1-11 last year laying 12. I just don't see it.
I will take the points and won't be the least bit suprised if Buffalo doesn't have a chance to win outright.
PICK: 3 BUFFALO
Wake Forest at Boston College
Wake Forest – Demon Deacons have covered each of their last six non-conference road games, but are just 1-4 ATS in their first game as a dog. Jim Grobe’s team went 7-6 SU & ATS last year, but only has 10 starters back. The offensive output is expected to be down with just three returning starters on that side of the ball.
Boston College – Eagles are a stellar 18-4 SU & ATS in their last 22 at home, but only 5-13 against the number in their last 18 openers. Boston College has covered six of its last eight versus the ACC, the league that spurned them during this summer’s expansion fiasco.
Temple at Penn State
Temple – Temple has nine starters back from last year’s 4-8 team, but Coach Bobby Wallace signed 21 JUCO players and will be counting on many of them Saturday. Owls are 6-13 ATS against non-conference foes under Wallace and just 2-7 ATS against Penn State since 1986. Returning QB starter Mike McGann needs to turnaround his TD-INT ratio (13-22).
Penn State – Lions lost 11 starters from a year ago and have to replace RB Larry Johnson and fill holes on both lines. The play-making QB Zach Mills (2,417 passing yards) is back and that’s a plus. Penn State is just 1-5 ATS in the first two games the past three seasons, including 0-3 in the home opener. Up next for the Nittany Lions is a big game with Boston College and then Nebraska. Penn State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Duke at Virginia
Duke – Blue Devils have dropped 25 straight conference games but seemed poised for a breakthrough. They return 20 starters from a team that lost four of its ACC games in 2002 by five points or less. They’ve covered seven of nine versus Virginia, including last year’s 27-22 loss when they were leading through three quarters. Duke was 8-3 ATS as a dog last season.
Virginia – There’s a lot of hype surrounding this team that went 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS last season with a young roster. Sixteen starters are back, including seven on defense. QB Matt Schaub, the 2002 ACC Player of the Year, completed 69% of his passes and fired 28 TD strikes, while versatile RB Wali Lundy rushed for 826 yards and caught 58 passes. Defense has seven starters back, but must do better against the run. Just 4-10 ATS as a double-digit home chalk.
Georgia at Clemson
Georgia – Graduation, injuries and suspensions have depleted the reigning SEC champs roster. QB David Green led the conference in passing last season and is a gamer, but all five of Georgia’s starters on the offensive line from last year are gone. Overall, only three offensive starters are back. Georgia has lots of holes to fill at linebacker and the secondary is suspect. Under Coach Mark Richt, Georgia is a perfect 8-0 ATS away. The Dawgs are also 8-3-1 SU and 8-4 ATS is its last dozen versus Tigers.
Clemson – Tiger sophomore passer Charlie Whitehurst is one of eight starters back on offense and has a deep, veteran line protecting him. Four starters return on defense. Clemson outgained the Dawgs and had more first downs last year, but Georgia won 31-28. Clemson (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS last season) is just 6-11-1 ATS the last three years at home under Coach Tommy Bowden.
Wisconsin at West Virginia
Wisconsin –The Badgers built up a 31-3 lead last year over the Mountaineers before winning by 17. Eight defensive starters return for a team that covered nine of 12 games in 2002. All total, 18 starters are back from a team that finished 8-6 SU. Quarterback Jim Sorgi will be looking for the dynamic WR Lee Evans, who missed last year with a torn ACL, but set a Big Ten mark with 1,545 yards in 2001. Nobody in the country has rushed for more yards the past two years than Anthony Davis (3,021). Badgers are 16-10 ATS on the highway the last five years.
West Virginia – Closed the 2002 regular season by covering seven straight games. Overall, 10 starters are back from a team that went 9-4 SU and 9-3 ATS last year. But inexperience reigns on the defensive line where no starters return.
Central Michigan at Michigan
Central Michigan – 1-6 ATS versus Big Ten teams since 1994 with an average losing score of 44-13. But, 8-2 in their last 10 as a double-digit dog.
Michigan – Wolverines have covered six of eight as a home chalk of 10 or more, but cashed just five of 13 games in 2002.
Miami of Ohio at Iowa
Miami – Redhawks covered by half a point last year in losing 29-24 at home to the Hawkeyes. They had two TDs called back by penalties and had more first downs than Iowa. Miami is just 2-8 SU versus the Big Ten, but 7-2-1 ATS in those games. 10-3 ATS since 1997 as a non-conference pup and aiming for their sixth straight opening game cover.
Iowa – Nathan Chandler takes over under center for 2002 Heisman runner-up Brad Banks. The Hawkeyes lost seven offensive starters from last year's 11-2 team that went 9-3 against the number, including Banks and four linemen. Iowa has also covered nine of 12 as a home favorite the past two seasons.
Missouri vs. Illinois at St. Louis
Missouri – Tigers have 10 offensive starters back including do-everything QB Brad Smith who rushed for 138 yards and passed for 152 in last year's 33-20 upset of Illinois as a 7-point dog. Eight starters are back on defense and the Tigers are on a 10-5-1 ATS run against the Big Ten. Missouri is 9-3 ATS against opponent’s with revenge.
Illinois – Only 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Big 12. Illinois has failed to cover three straight in domes, losing by an average margin of 20 points. Seven starters return from a defense that allowed 420 yards a game a year ago.
Mississippi at Vanderbilt
Mississippi – Rebels are 20-11 ATS on the SEC highway the last three seasons. QB Eli Manning threw for 386 yards and two TDs in a 45-38 win over the Commodores last year. Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS in conference openers.
Vanderbilt – Commodores have dropped 18 straight SEC games, but is 3-0-1 ATS against the Rebels the last four years. There are only seven seniors on the team and the defense has just two returning starters. Vandy was 3-0 ATS last year as a home puppy, but the home team is on a 1-7-1 ATS series slide.
South Florida at Alabama at Birmingham
South Florida – Bulls are 17-5 SU and 13-4 ATS the past two years. Ronnie Banks steps in at quarterback and will be aided by a veteran line that allowed only 19 sacks a year ago. Fourteen starters back from a team that won nine of 11 games last fall.
Alabama – First game for Coach Mike Shula as Tide comes in 2-8 ATS in their last 10 openers. Oklahoma is on deck for Tide next week in Tuscaloosa.
Western Michigan at Michigan State
Western Michigan – On a 7-4 ATS run versus the Big 10. Failed to cover in seven of 11 lines games in 2002.
Michigan State – It’s John L. Smith’s first game at Michigan State, which is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight against MAC schools. Prodigal son Jeff Smoker is back as the QB starter and 15 starters return from an underachieving 4-8 SU (3-9 ATS) team that featured the worst statistical defense in school history. Spartans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite.
Tulsa at Minnesota
Tulsa – Team has covered three of its five as an away dog after failing in 16 of the previous 17 such games. Golden Hurricanes went 1-11 SU last year and have dropped 21 of the last 23. Tulsa comes in on a 1-7 ATS run in the first lined road game of the season
Minnesota – Golden Gophers have nine starters back on defense and 16 in all on a team that went 8-5 SU last year. On a 9-4 ATS non-conference run, but covered just five of 12 lined games a year ago.
Oklahoma State at Nebraska
Oklahoma State – Cowboys beat the Huskers for the first time since 1961 last year. Team went 8-5 SU and 8-4 against the number and has 14 starters returning. QB Josh Fields (3,145 yards, 31 TD) has a good line and talent around him with RB Tatum Bell and WR Rashawn Woods. Cowboys just 4-12 ATS as a road dog the past four seasons.
Nebraska – Team went 7-7 SU last year, but was 4-1 ATS as a home chalk. Nebraska has QB Jammal Lord back, but he completed just 47% of his passes last year. Nebraska has posted 17 straight opening game SU wins and is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 SU victories.
Fresno State at Tennessee
Fresno State – Bulldogs have covered seven of last nine as a puppy, and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 September outings as a road dog.
Tennessee – Vols had an injury-riddled season and finished 8-5 SU. The year concluded with a 30-3 pasting by Maryland in the Peach Bowl. Vols have finished 6-7 ATS each of the past two seasons. Tennessee, though has covered 11 of its last 13 openers.
San Jose State at Florida
San Jose State – Spartans shutout I-AA Grambling last week and come in having covered each of their last six road openers. Five of those came against BCS member schools. Team is 7-3 against the number in its last 10 away.
Florida – Florida has six offensive starters back on offense, and only three on defense. There’s plenty of unproven, but very talented players competing for many spots including at quarterback. A pair of projected starters on defense won’t play due to suspensions while injuries will keep two offensive line two-deep players off the field, as well. The Gators have won 33 of 34 openers SU. Miami is up next for Florida, which went 4-9 ATS in 2002.
Southern Cal at Auburn
Southern Cal – Trojans won last year 24-17 in L.A., but failed to cover by a half point. USC is 8-3 ATS on the road under Coach Pete Carroll, but are 0-2 ATS in openers with Carroll at the helm.
Auburn – Tigers have covered three straight home lined openers. They went 9-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in 2002. A total of 15 starters are back.
Southern Miss at California
Southern Miss – Golden Eagles are 3-10 SU but 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road openers. But they’re just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 away from home and 0-5 ATS in non-conference games.
California – Bears covered last week as a four-touchdown puppy against Kansas State. Two quarterbacks threw for 383 yards and four scores, but the defense, with nine new starters, struggled in the 42-28 loss. Cal covered three of five last year as a home chalk and was 4-1 ATS off a SU loss.
Buffalo at Rutgers
Buffalo – Eighteen starters return from a team that went 1-11 SU (5-6 ATS) and was the youngest among all I-A teams. The Bulls did win 34-11 last year at Rutgers as a 7-point dog.
Rutgers – Prior to last year’s upset, Rutgers had outscored Buffalo 90-15 in easy wins the previous two seasons. The team has 15 starters back from its one-win season. The Scarlet Knights are on a 7-13 ATS run in non-conference games, but covered six of 11 overall last season.
Northwestern at Kansas
Northwestern – The Wildcats went 3-9 SU and 6-6 ATS a year ago. They’ve got nine starters back from a defense that permitted more than 41 points and 500 yards a game last season. The Wildcats have covered 12 of 17 against non-conference foes.
Kansas – The Jayhawks gave up at least 31 points to every lined opponent last year. Six starters are back from that unit that allowed more than 42 points a game. Thirteen JUCO players were signed for a team that went just 2-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in 2002.
SMU at Texas Tech
SMU - Has lost seven in a row straight-up in the series, covering only twice in that span. 9-18-1 ATS as a road dog since 1996.
Texas Tech - Red Raiders are 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 as a home favorite.
UAB at Baylor
UAB - 16 starters return including nine on an offense led by QB Darrell Hackney (1977 yards, 14 TDs).
Baylor - Defense allowed 41.3 points a year ago. Bears have failed to cover in last 13 outings as a dog.
Colorado vs. Colorado State at Denver
Colorado - The Dog is on a 10-3 ATS series' run. But, the Buffs are 0-4 in openers since Gary Barnett came to town, losing to the Rams in 99, 00, and 02.
Colorado State - Won 19-14 last year as an 8-point pup. Has won three of the last four meetings straight-up.
Florida State at North Carolina
Florida State - Stunned 41-9 by 17-point dog Tar Heels in last visit to Carolina two years ago. Avenged defeat with a 40-14 home win last season, failing to cover the 3 1 1/2-point margin. Ten defensive starters return from last year's 9-5 team. The road team is on a 5-2 ATS series' run.
North Carolina - Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home dog with lone win being their upset of the Seminoles two years ago. 3-6 ATS in last nine season openers.
Washington at Ohio State
Washington - Four starters return from a defensive front seven that held opponents to 98 yards rushing (2.8 ypc) a year ago.
Ohio State - Buckeyes were 7-1 ATS as a home favorite a year ago. Running back Maurice Clarett suspended.
Rice at Houston
Rice - The road team has won outright as a dog in the last two meetings. The dog has covered four of the last five in the series. The Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 visits to the Cougars' home field, but overall, Rice is 6-11 ATS in its last 17 outings as a road pup, and 12-18 ATS in its last 30 games on grass. Top four offensive linemen return plus starting QB and #1 RB and WR.
Houston - The home team is 5-9 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Cougars are 1-8 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons.
Oregon at Mississippi State
Oregon - Lost final three games a year ago. 4-0 ATS as a road favorite the past two seasons. 13-3 ATS last 16 road openers.
Mississippi State - Lost 36-13 at Eugene in last year's opener as starting quarterback Kevin Fant was suspended two days prior to the contest. 3-7 ATS as a dog last year.
UTEP at Arizona
UTEP - Miners are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog.
Arizona - Wildcats have failed to cover 11 straight games as double-digit favorites. Only 2-12 ATS the last four years laying any kind of points.
Indiana at U.Conn
Indiana - Defense allowed 39 points a game last year and 5.8 yards per carry to opposing backs. New QB is former Notre Dame signal-caller Matt LoVechio.
U.Conn - 16 starters return led by QB Dan Orlovsky (2488 yards, 19 TDs) as Huskies open new stadium.
Idaho vs. Washington State at Seattle
Washington State - Cougars' next game is at Notre Dame.
U.L. Lafayette at South Carolina
U.L. Lafayette - Went 3-9 SU last year scoring 17 points or less in eight games.
South Carolina - 2-2 ATS when laying 20 or more under Lou Holtz. 1-4-1 ATS last six home openers. Battles with Virginia and Georgia to follow.
Arkansas State at Texas A&M
Arkansas State - Covered seven of final nine games last year. Opened last season by getting blasted 63-7 at Virginia Tech.
Texas A&M - Aggies are 10-3 ATS in last 13 home openers. Dennis Franchione's A&M debut.
Troy State at Kansas State
Troy State - Lost 44-7 and 42-12 to Big 12 members Missouri and Iowa State a year ago, respectively.
Kansas State - Opened with a 42-28 win against Cal last Saturday. 23-6 ATS in non-conference action since 1993. Also 33-8 ATS in last 41 games laying 20-or-more points. Wildcats are 3-0 ATs when laying 30+ points during Bill Snyder's tenure.
U.L. Monroe at LSU
U.L. Monroe - Allowed 30-or-more points in seven of final nine games a year ago. Lost four games by 35 or more. 3-14 ATS as s double-digit non-conference road dog since 1998.
LSU - Tigers were 4-1 ATS as a home favorite a year ago.
By Rob House, President of I Will Win Sports
Virginia has it's home opener here against Duke, who has 20 returning starters, is an easy chore on paper in this one, but take a second look. Duke always give the Cav's problems, 7-2 ATS the last 9 games.
Remember Duke is a team returning 20 starters who lost 4 ACC games last year by 5 or less points, and all key components return. Duke is 9-3 in road openers ATS the least 12 years and they keep this one close as the Cav's may get caught looking ahead to South Carolina in Week 2. The Cav's are just 3-7 in home openers the last 10 years against the spread. Blue Devils to keep it close, take the points.
PICK: 3 DUKE
Central Michigan at MICHIGAN(-33)
By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
Now on to your free play ....
High expectations surround Michigan this season as it opens the season against Central Michigan on Saturday. The Wolverines are ranked fourth despite some lingering questions on defense and special teams.
Michigan returns 15 of 24 starters, including quarterback John Navarre, leading rusher Chris Perry, and receiver Braylon Edwards. Add in four returning starters on the offensive line, and Michigan boasts one of the more talented offensive groups in the country.
Central Michigan coming off a 4-8 campaign, have significant familiarity with the Wolverines. Central Michigan's hopes for significant improvement will rest in the backfield as junior halfback Terrence Jackson is looking to return to the form of 2001 when he rushed for 1,194 yards.
Michigan is way to fast and strong for Central today. I know that 33 is a lot of wood, but I look for Michigan to be up 21 by halftime.
PICK: 3 MICHIGAN
Miami, Ohio at IOWA (-10')
By Chuck Franklin, Featured Handicapper
Saturday's Free Selection:
MIAMI,OHIO +10' over Iowa
Iowa opened a lot of eyes last year, posting their first-ever 11-win season. They did it despite the fact they surrendered 30 YPG more than did the seven-win squad of 2001. This year a new quarterback is in place with Heisman-runnerup Brad Banks departed. Among the victories last season was a five-point win over Miami,Ohio in Athens. Miami,Ohio is picked this year by conference writers, in a pre-season poll, to win the MAC East. Over the last five years, only five MAC schools have been fortunate enough to win at Big 10 sites. Here comes the sixth. Miami owns the senior leadership along with one of the best college quarterbacks in the game, Ben Roethlisberger, to pull off this upset. Miami's impressive 10-4 ATS road mark makes the RedHawks very attractive. Watch Heisman candidate Roethlisberger key this outright victory!
PICK: 5 MIAMI OF OHIO
Miami of Ohio (+10') at IOWA
PICK: 2 MIAMI OF OHIO
Mississippi (-13) at VANDERBILT
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
HOT DAMN! I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!
Now as promised, here’s that freebie as today Ole Miss will cover against Vanderbilt as these two SEC rivals kickoff their 2003 seasons.
For the Rebs’ Eli Manning, his Heisman Trophy hopes will get off to a great start as he will riddle a Vandy defense that returns just two starters. Last year, he passed for 386 yards, two scores and no picks as Ole Miss racked up 45 points on the Commodores. He’s got a veteran line protecting him and talented backs and receivers including Chris Collins and Bill Flowers, who combined for 108 catches a year ago.
Ole Miss has won nine of 10 SU over Vandy and is 20-11 ATS in conference road games the last three years. The home team is on a 1-7-1 ATS run in this series and the Commodores have dropped 18 straight SEC games. They have just seven seniors on the roster and no upperclassmen in the secondary.
This is one of the best Ole Miss teams in years and they’ll rout Vandy today in Nashville!
PICK: 3 MISSISSIPPI
South Florida (+16) at ALABAMA at Birmingham
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
HOT DAMN! I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!
Now as promised, here’s that freebie as today South Florida will hang tough and stay within the number against Alabama as these two teams meet up at Legion Field in Birmingham.
The Bulls aren’t afraid to go on the road as they demonstrated two years by winning at Pittsburgh. Last season, they upset nationally-ranked Bowling Green and Coach Jim Leavitt has 14 starters back from a team that went 9-2 SU in 2002.
The past two years, South Florida is 17-5 SU and 13-4 ATS. The Bulls have a veteran line and good receivers, which should benefit new quarterback Ronnie Banks.
The Tide makes its 2003 debut after another distraction-filled off-season. Mike Shula steps onto the field for the first time as a head coach and he’ll lead an Alabama team that is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 openers. Sure there’s talent, but Bama is rebuilding along the defensive line and will certainly keep things vanilla with Oklahoma set to visit Tuscaloosa next week.
The Bulls will be within striking range all day and will stay inside this double-digit number.
PICK: 3 SOUTH FLORIDA
Buffalo (+12) at RUTGERS
By Sean Michaels, Featured Handicapper
Now, let's get to your free selection...
Okay, explain this to me. Rutgers hasn't been favored by double digits in over 20 years. Are you kidding me. I just don't see it.
Buffalo returns 18 starters from last year and they are a scrappy bunch. They covered 7 of 8 last year when getting double digits and that is what they are catching here.
I have always cashed in going against teams that are aren't used to laying big wood. It is too tall a tree to chop down.
I like this kid at QB for Buffalo, Randall Secky, who threw for over 2,000 yards last season.
You have a team in Rutgers that finished 1-11 last year laying 12. I just don't see it.
I will take the points and won't be the least bit suprised if Buffalo doesn't have a chance to win outright.
PICK: 3 BUFFALO
Wake Forest at Boston College
Wake Forest – Demon Deacons have covered each of their last six non-conference road games, but are just 1-4 ATS in their first game as a dog. Jim Grobe’s team went 7-6 SU & ATS last year, but only has 10 starters back. The offensive output is expected to be down with just three returning starters on that side of the ball.
Boston College – Eagles are a stellar 18-4 SU & ATS in their last 22 at home, but only 5-13 against the number in their last 18 openers. Boston College has covered six of its last eight versus the ACC, the league that spurned them during this summer’s expansion fiasco.
Temple at Penn State
Temple – Temple has nine starters back from last year’s 4-8 team, but Coach Bobby Wallace signed 21 JUCO players and will be counting on many of them Saturday. Owls are 6-13 ATS against non-conference foes under Wallace and just 2-7 ATS against Penn State since 1986. Returning QB starter Mike McGann needs to turnaround his TD-INT ratio (13-22).
Penn State – Lions lost 11 starters from a year ago and have to replace RB Larry Johnson and fill holes on both lines. The play-making QB Zach Mills (2,417 passing yards) is back and that’s a plus. Penn State is just 1-5 ATS in the first two games the past three seasons, including 0-3 in the home opener. Up next for the Nittany Lions is a big game with Boston College and then Nebraska. Penn State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Duke at Virginia
Duke – Blue Devils have dropped 25 straight conference games but seemed poised for a breakthrough. They return 20 starters from a team that lost four of its ACC games in 2002 by five points or less. They’ve covered seven of nine versus Virginia, including last year’s 27-22 loss when they were leading through three quarters. Duke was 8-3 ATS as a dog last season.
Virginia – There’s a lot of hype surrounding this team that went 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS last season with a young roster. Sixteen starters are back, including seven on defense. QB Matt Schaub, the 2002 ACC Player of the Year, completed 69% of his passes and fired 28 TD strikes, while versatile RB Wali Lundy rushed for 826 yards and caught 58 passes. Defense has seven starters back, but must do better against the run. Just 4-10 ATS as a double-digit home chalk.
Georgia at Clemson
Georgia – Graduation, injuries and suspensions have depleted the reigning SEC champs roster. QB David Green led the conference in passing last season and is a gamer, but all five of Georgia’s starters on the offensive line from last year are gone. Overall, only three offensive starters are back. Georgia has lots of holes to fill at linebacker and the secondary is suspect. Under Coach Mark Richt, Georgia is a perfect 8-0 ATS away. The Dawgs are also 8-3-1 SU and 8-4 ATS is its last dozen versus Tigers.
Clemson – Tiger sophomore passer Charlie Whitehurst is one of eight starters back on offense and has a deep, veteran line protecting him. Four starters return on defense. Clemson outgained the Dawgs and had more first downs last year, but Georgia won 31-28. Clemson (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS last season) is just 6-11-1 ATS the last three years at home under Coach Tommy Bowden.
Wisconsin at West Virginia
Wisconsin –The Badgers built up a 31-3 lead last year over the Mountaineers before winning by 17. Eight defensive starters return for a team that covered nine of 12 games in 2002. All total, 18 starters are back from a team that finished 8-6 SU. Quarterback Jim Sorgi will be looking for the dynamic WR Lee Evans, who missed last year with a torn ACL, but set a Big Ten mark with 1,545 yards in 2001. Nobody in the country has rushed for more yards the past two years than Anthony Davis (3,021). Badgers are 16-10 ATS on the highway the last five years.
West Virginia – Closed the 2002 regular season by covering seven straight games. Overall, 10 starters are back from a team that went 9-4 SU and 9-3 ATS last year. But inexperience reigns on the defensive line where no starters return.
Central Michigan at Michigan
Central Michigan – 1-6 ATS versus Big Ten teams since 1994 with an average losing score of 44-13. But, 8-2 in their last 10 as a double-digit dog.
Michigan – Wolverines have covered six of eight as a home chalk of 10 or more, but cashed just five of 13 games in 2002.
Miami of Ohio at Iowa
Miami – Redhawks covered by half a point last year in losing 29-24 at home to the Hawkeyes. They had two TDs called back by penalties and had more first downs than Iowa. Miami is just 2-8 SU versus the Big Ten, but 7-2-1 ATS in those games. 10-3 ATS since 1997 as a non-conference pup and aiming for their sixth straight opening game cover.
Iowa – Nathan Chandler takes over under center for 2002 Heisman runner-up Brad Banks. The Hawkeyes lost seven offensive starters from last year's 11-2 team that went 9-3 against the number, including Banks and four linemen. Iowa has also covered nine of 12 as a home favorite the past two seasons.
Missouri vs. Illinois at St. Louis
Missouri – Tigers have 10 offensive starters back including do-everything QB Brad Smith who rushed for 138 yards and passed for 152 in last year's 33-20 upset of Illinois as a 7-point dog. Eight starters are back on defense and the Tigers are on a 10-5-1 ATS run against the Big Ten. Missouri is 9-3 ATS against opponent’s with revenge.
Illinois – Only 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Big 12. Illinois has failed to cover three straight in domes, losing by an average margin of 20 points. Seven starters return from a defense that allowed 420 yards a game a year ago.
Mississippi at Vanderbilt
Mississippi – Rebels are 20-11 ATS on the SEC highway the last three seasons. QB Eli Manning threw for 386 yards and two TDs in a 45-38 win over the Commodores last year. Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS in conference openers.
Vanderbilt – Commodores have dropped 18 straight SEC games, but is 3-0-1 ATS against the Rebels the last four years. There are only seven seniors on the team and the defense has just two returning starters. Vandy was 3-0 ATS last year as a home puppy, but the home team is on a 1-7-1 ATS series slide.
South Florida at Alabama at Birmingham
South Florida – Bulls are 17-5 SU and 13-4 ATS the past two years. Ronnie Banks steps in at quarterback and will be aided by a veteran line that allowed only 19 sacks a year ago. Fourteen starters back from a team that won nine of 11 games last fall.
Alabama – First game for Coach Mike Shula as Tide comes in 2-8 ATS in their last 10 openers. Oklahoma is on deck for Tide next week in Tuscaloosa.
Western Michigan at Michigan State
Western Michigan – On a 7-4 ATS run versus the Big 10. Failed to cover in seven of 11 lines games in 2002.
Michigan State – It’s John L. Smith’s first game at Michigan State, which is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight against MAC schools. Prodigal son Jeff Smoker is back as the QB starter and 15 starters return from an underachieving 4-8 SU (3-9 ATS) team that featured the worst statistical defense in school history. Spartans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite.
Tulsa at Minnesota
Tulsa – Team has covered three of its five as an away dog after failing in 16 of the previous 17 such games. Golden Hurricanes went 1-11 SU last year and have dropped 21 of the last 23. Tulsa comes in on a 1-7 ATS run in the first lined road game of the season
Minnesota – Golden Gophers have nine starters back on defense and 16 in all on a team that went 8-5 SU last year. On a 9-4 ATS non-conference run, but covered just five of 12 lined games a year ago.
Oklahoma State at Nebraska
Oklahoma State – Cowboys beat the Huskers for the first time since 1961 last year. Team went 8-5 SU and 8-4 against the number and has 14 starters returning. QB Josh Fields (3,145 yards, 31 TD) has a good line and talent around him with RB Tatum Bell and WR Rashawn Woods. Cowboys just 4-12 ATS as a road dog the past four seasons.
Nebraska – Team went 7-7 SU last year, but was 4-1 ATS as a home chalk. Nebraska has QB Jammal Lord back, but he completed just 47% of his passes last year. Nebraska has posted 17 straight opening game SU wins and is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 SU victories.
Fresno State at Tennessee
Fresno State – Bulldogs have covered seven of last nine as a puppy, and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 September outings as a road dog.
Tennessee – Vols had an injury-riddled season and finished 8-5 SU. The year concluded with a 30-3 pasting by Maryland in the Peach Bowl. Vols have finished 6-7 ATS each of the past two seasons. Tennessee, though has covered 11 of its last 13 openers.
San Jose State at Florida
San Jose State – Spartans shutout I-AA Grambling last week and come in having covered each of their last six road openers. Five of those came against BCS member schools. Team is 7-3 against the number in its last 10 away.
Florida – Florida has six offensive starters back on offense, and only three on defense. There’s plenty of unproven, but very talented players competing for many spots including at quarterback. A pair of projected starters on defense won’t play due to suspensions while injuries will keep two offensive line two-deep players off the field, as well. The Gators have won 33 of 34 openers SU. Miami is up next for Florida, which went 4-9 ATS in 2002.
Southern Cal at Auburn
Southern Cal – Trojans won last year 24-17 in L.A., but failed to cover by a half point. USC is 8-3 ATS on the road under Coach Pete Carroll, but are 0-2 ATS in openers with Carroll at the helm.
Auburn – Tigers have covered three straight home lined openers. They went 9-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in 2002. A total of 15 starters are back.
Southern Miss at California
Southern Miss – Golden Eagles are 3-10 SU but 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road openers. But they’re just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 away from home and 0-5 ATS in non-conference games.
California – Bears covered last week as a four-touchdown puppy against Kansas State. Two quarterbacks threw for 383 yards and four scores, but the defense, with nine new starters, struggled in the 42-28 loss. Cal covered three of five last year as a home chalk and was 4-1 ATS off a SU loss.
Buffalo at Rutgers
Buffalo – Eighteen starters return from a team that went 1-11 SU (5-6 ATS) and was the youngest among all I-A teams. The Bulls did win 34-11 last year at Rutgers as a 7-point dog.
Rutgers – Prior to last year’s upset, Rutgers had outscored Buffalo 90-15 in easy wins the previous two seasons. The team has 15 starters back from its one-win season. The Scarlet Knights are on a 7-13 ATS run in non-conference games, but covered six of 11 overall last season.
Northwestern at Kansas
Northwestern – The Wildcats went 3-9 SU and 6-6 ATS a year ago. They’ve got nine starters back from a defense that permitted more than 41 points and 500 yards a game last season. The Wildcats have covered 12 of 17 against non-conference foes.
Kansas – The Jayhawks gave up at least 31 points to every lined opponent last year. Six starters are back from that unit that allowed more than 42 points a game. Thirteen JUCO players were signed for a team that went just 2-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in 2002.
SMU at Texas Tech
SMU - Has lost seven in a row straight-up in the series, covering only twice in that span. 9-18-1 ATS as a road dog since 1996.
Texas Tech - Red Raiders are 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 as a home favorite.
UAB at Baylor
UAB - 16 starters return including nine on an offense led by QB Darrell Hackney (1977 yards, 14 TDs).
Baylor - Defense allowed 41.3 points a year ago. Bears have failed to cover in last 13 outings as a dog.
Colorado vs. Colorado State at Denver
Colorado - The Dog is on a 10-3 ATS series' run. But, the Buffs are 0-4 in openers since Gary Barnett came to town, losing to the Rams in 99, 00, and 02.
Colorado State - Won 19-14 last year as an 8-point pup. Has won three of the last four meetings straight-up.
Florida State at North Carolina
Florida State - Stunned 41-9 by 17-point dog Tar Heels in last visit to Carolina two years ago. Avenged defeat with a 40-14 home win last season, failing to cover the 3 1 1/2-point margin. Ten defensive starters return from last year's 9-5 team. The road team is on a 5-2 ATS series' run.
North Carolina - Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home dog with lone win being their upset of the Seminoles two years ago. 3-6 ATS in last nine season openers.
Washington at Ohio State
Washington - Four starters return from a defensive front seven that held opponents to 98 yards rushing (2.8 ypc) a year ago.
Ohio State - Buckeyes were 7-1 ATS as a home favorite a year ago. Running back Maurice Clarett suspended.
Rice at Houston
Rice - The road team has won outright as a dog in the last two meetings. The dog has covered four of the last five in the series. The Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 visits to the Cougars' home field, but overall, Rice is 6-11 ATS in its last 17 outings as a road pup, and 12-18 ATS in its last 30 games on grass. Top four offensive linemen return plus starting QB and #1 RB and WR.
Houston - The home team is 5-9 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Cougars are 1-8 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons.
Oregon at Mississippi State
Oregon - Lost final three games a year ago. 4-0 ATS as a road favorite the past two seasons. 13-3 ATS last 16 road openers.
Mississippi State - Lost 36-13 at Eugene in last year's opener as starting quarterback Kevin Fant was suspended two days prior to the contest. 3-7 ATS as a dog last year.
UTEP at Arizona
UTEP - Miners are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog.
Arizona - Wildcats have failed to cover 11 straight games as double-digit favorites. Only 2-12 ATS the last four years laying any kind of points.
Indiana at U.Conn
Indiana - Defense allowed 39 points a game last year and 5.8 yards per carry to opposing backs. New QB is former Notre Dame signal-caller Matt LoVechio.
U.Conn - 16 starters return led by QB Dan Orlovsky (2488 yards, 19 TDs) as Huskies open new stadium.
Idaho vs. Washington State at Seattle
Washington State - Cougars' next game is at Notre Dame.
U.L. Lafayette at South Carolina
U.L. Lafayette - Went 3-9 SU last year scoring 17 points or less in eight games.
South Carolina - 2-2 ATS when laying 20 or more under Lou Holtz. 1-4-1 ATS last six home openers. Battles with Virginia and Georgia to follow.
Arkansas State at Texas A&M
Arkansas State - Covered seven of final nine games last year. Opened last season by getting blasted 63-7 at Virginia Tech.
Texas A&M - Aggies are 10-3 ATS in last 13 home openers. Dennis Franchione's A&M debut.
Troy State at Kansas State
Troy State - Lost 44-7 and 42-12 to Big 12 members Missouri and Iowa State a year ago, respectively.
Kansas State - Opened with a 42-28 win against Cal last Saturday. 23-6 ATS in non-conference action since 1993. Also 33-8 ATS in last 41 games laying 20-or-more points. Wildcats are 3-0 ATs when laying 30+ points during Bill Snyder's tenure.
U.L. Monroe at LSU
U.L. Monroe - Allowed 30-or-more points in seven of final nine games a year ago. Lost four games by 35 or more. 3-14 ATS as s double-digit non-conference road dog since 1998.
LSU - Tigers were 4-1 ATS as a home favorite a year ago.