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Saturday NCAA Football...........
Here we go, first full weekend of college football!!! Winners with Northern Illinois on Thursday and UNLV on Friday, lets keep it rolling today!!! Here is my card for today...........
5 STAR: KANSAS STATE (-37.5) OVER Troy State
I normally don't lay this much wood, especially for a 5 STAR play, but I smell a blowout here. K-State's offense looked good against California in their opener, but their defense was suspect, as they got burned for some long touchdown passes by Cal. I'm sure that coach Snyder laid into that defensive unit this week and look for them to look like one of the best defenses in the country (even if they are not) against a very weak offensive team from Troy State. Overall, Troy State ranked 112 out of 117 teams in total offense last season and they are trying to run a new I-formation offense this season, instead of the "Trojan Spread" which produced 16 interceptions and only 6 touchdowns for returning starting quarterback Hansell Bearden. If there is any coach in NCAA football that is aware of the pointspread, it has to be K-State's coach Snyder. After failing to cash the ticket last week, Snyder will see to it that the alumni are happy this week. K-State is 16-4 against the spread in the first month of the season since 1992, 14-4 against the spread in non-conference home games since 1992, 18-5 against the spread in September games since 1993 and 7-1 against the spread as a favorite of 31 or more points since 1992. Look for K-State to score at will in this game!
3 STAR: Miami-Ohio (+10.5) OVER IOWA
The Hawkeyes escaped with a 5 point win at Miami of Ohio last season, but this looks to be a rebuilding year for the Hawkeyes as they only return 5 starters on offense and 7 on defense and they must replace the heart of their offense, quarterback Brad Banks who led the nation in passing efficiency last season. The Red Hawks are loaded again this season and are a favorite to win the MAC championship. Miami quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is the real deal, and he threw for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns against Iowa last season. Roethlisberger is a true Heisman candidate and with 7 returning starters on offense, Miami should put up some big numbers on offense again this year. This is way to many points to give to a team that is capable of winning straight up. Take the points with the Red Hawks!
3 STAR: South Florida (+16) OVER ALABAMA
I have to take the points with a solid South Florida team that is 12-4 against the spread over the last three seasons. South Florida joins Conference USA and is immediately being recognized as one of the teams to compete for the league crown in 2003. For good reason, too, as in just two years of division 1-A football, the Bulls have legitimatized their promotion to college football’s top level. Last season’s 9-2 record followed up an 8-3 mark in 2001. It has been an off season off turmoil for Alabama, and they might have a hard time getting up for South Florida. I just don't see them covering this huge of a spread as I see them looking ahead to a clash with the Oklahoma Sooners in week two. The Crimson Tide has historically struggled in the early weeks of the season, they are only 5-14 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season over the last five seasons. Take the points here again with the Bulls!
3 STAR: MISSISSIPPI STATE (+4) OVER Oregon
The Ducks struggled down the stretch last season going 1-6 straight up and against the spread to close out the season. The late slide can be attributed to a defense that was lit up during the horrible skid, allowing 37.4 points per game in that span. Overall, they finished with the nation’s third worst pass defense. Six starters return for that unit and I am not convinced that they have addressed that problem. The Bulldogs have had two back to back disappointing seasons, but they do return 7 starters on offense and 8 starters on defense. The Ducks like to throw the ball, and this Mississippi State defense was ranked third nationally against the pass and should do a good job against the Ducks attack that no longer has Ontario Smith in the backfield. This is a revenge game for the Bulldogs who turned the ball over four times in a loss to the Ducks at Oregon last season when Ontario Smith and company rushed for 205 yards. Oregon is 0-8 against the spread as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points the last three seasons. Take the points, but the Bulldogs should pull off the upset here!
2 STAR: Wake Forest (+12) OVER BOSTON COLLEGE
Wake Forest has only three returning starters on offense this season, but I still look for them to keep the final score within this big number. The Demon Deacons have replaced the departed starters with more athletic players. The offensive line should be outstanding and the running game should be as good or better than it was last year. They have a big time go to guy on offense in Wide receiver Jason Anderson. I don't see this game being a shootout as the Eagles are going to try to pound the ball on the ground also, with their star running back Derrick Knight, but that might play into the hands of Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons defense will have problems against the pass, not the run. With a new starting quarterback at Boston College, replacing the graduated Brain St. Pierre who is now with the Steelers, the Eagle passing game might not be able to get the job done early in the season and the Eagles also must replace three top starters from the offensive line. BC has a history of struggling early in the season, posting a 1-5 record against the spread in the first month of the season the last three years and they are only 1-5 against the spread in home non-conference games over the last three seasons. Take the points here!
NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.3 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-0 (+1.0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 2-1 (+0.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $70.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: KANSAS STATE (-37.5) OVER Troy State
I normally don't lay this much wood, especially for a 5 STAR play, but I smell a blowout here. K-State's offense looked good against California in their opener, but their defense was suspect, as they got burned for some long touchdown passes by Cal. I'm sure that coach Snyder laid into that defensive unit this week and look for them to look like one of the best defenses in the country (even if they are not) against a very weak offensive team from Troy State. Overall, Troy State ranked 112 out of 117 teams in total offense last season and they are trying to run a new I-formation offense this season, instead of the "Trojan Spread" which produced 16 interceptions and only 6 touchdowns for returning starting quarterback Hansell Bearden. If there is any coach in NCAA football that is aware of the pointspread, it has to be K-State's coach Snyder. After failing to cash the ticket last week, Snyder will see to it that the alumni are happy this week. K-State is 16-4 against the spread in the first month of the season since 1992, 14-4 against the spread in non-conference home games since 1992, 18-5 against the spread in September games since 1993 and 7-1 against the spread as a favorite of 31 or more points since 1992. Look for K-State to score at will in this game!
3 STAR: Miami-Ohio (+10.5) OVER IOWA
The Hawkeyes escaped with a 5 point win at Miami of Ohio last season, but this looks to be a rebuilding year for the Hawkeyes as they only return 5 starters on offense and 7 on defense and they must replace the heart of their offense, quarterback Brad Banks who led the nation in passing efficiency last season. The Red Hawks are loaded again this season and are a favorite to win the MAC championship. Miami quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is the real deal, and he threw for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns against Iowa last season. Roethlisberger is a true Heisman candidate and with 7 returning starters on offense, Miami should put up some big numbers on offense again this year. This is way to many points to give to a team that is capable of winning straight up. Take the points with the Red Hawks!
3 STAR: South Florida (+16) OVER ALABAMA
I have to take the points with a solid South Florida team that is 12-4 against the spread over the last three seasons. South Florida joins Conference USA and is immediately being recognized as one of the teams to compete for the league crown in 2003. For good reason, too, as in just two years of division 1-A football, the Bulls have legitimatized their promotion to college football’s top level. Last season’s 9-2 record followed up an 8-3 mark in 2001. It has been an off season off turmoil for Alabama, and they might have a hard time getting up for South Florida. I just don't see them covering this huge of a spread as I see them looking ahead to a clash with the Oklahoma Sooners in week two. The Crimson Tide has historically struggled in the early weeks of the season, they are only 5-14 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season over the last five seasons. Take the points here again with the Bulls!
3 STAR: MISSISSIPPI STATE (+4) OVER Oregon
The Ducks struggled down the stretch last season going 1-6 straight up and against the spread to close out the season. The late slide can be attributed to a defense that was lit up during the horrible skid, allowing 37.4 points per game in that span. Overall, they finished with the nation’s third worst pass defense. Six starters return for that unit and I am not convinced that they have addressed that problem. The Bulldogs have had two back to back disappointing seasons, but they do return 7 starters on offense and 8 starters on defense. The Ducks like to throw the ball, and this Mississippi State defense was ranked third nationally against the pass and should do a good job against the Ducks attack that no longer has Ontario Smith in the backfield. This is a revenge game for the Bulldogs who turned the ball over four times in a loss to the Ducks at Oregon last season when Ontario Smith and company rushed for 205 yards. Oregon is 0-8 against the spread as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points the last three seasons. Take the points, but the Bulldogs should pull off the upset here!
2 STAR: Wake Forest (+12) OVER BOSTON COLLEGE
Wake Forest has only three returning starters on offense this season, but I still look for them to keep the final score within this big number. The Demon Deacons have replaced the departed starters with more athletic players. The offensive line should be outstanding and the running game should be as good or better than it was last year. They have a big time go to guy on offense in Wide receiver Jason Anderson. I don't see this game being a shootout as the Eagles are going to try to pound the ball on the ground also, with their star running back Derrick Knight, but that might play into the hands of Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons defense will have problems against the pass, not the run. With a new starting quarterback at Boston College, replacing the graduated Brain St. Pierre who is now with the Steelers, the Eagle passing game might not be able to get the job done early in the season and the Eagles also must replace three top starters from the offensive line. BC has a history of struggling early in the season, posting a 1-5 record against the spread in the first month of the season the last three years and they are only 1-5 against the spread in home non-conference games over the last three seasons. Take the points here!
NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.3 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-0 (+1.0 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 2-1 (+0.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $70.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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