Saturday Trends and Indexes 05/26

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Saturday, May 26

Good Luck on day #146 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Saturday

-- Felix Hernandez got hurt again, leaving game with a stiff back. So many young pitchers are breaking down. Why?

-- Red Sox gave Matsuzaka double digit runs again Friday; they've scored 65 runs in his last seven starts.

-- Washington Nationals are 11-4 in their last fifteen games, and their top three starters are on the DL. Wow.

-- Astros lost their last six games, outscored by 53-8 margin
Arizona rookie 3B Reynolds had 5-4-5-4 night Friday; he is a bigtime hitter, a questionable glove.

-- Dodgers had a 5-1 lead in 7th inning, before the bullpen imploded, and Cubs scored seven times in top of seventh. Then Dodgers scored four times in 8th against hideous Cub bullpen, as Lou Piniella had another tough night.

-- Looking ahead to which teams might be sellers before the July 31 trade deadline, the two Texas teams appear to be a good place to start.

[pm530]

Saturday's list of 13: Re-inventing major league baseball

-- First thing is, we dissolve American, National Leagues, and geographically re-align the major leagues. This makes job of scheduling much simpler. Here is how we would re-align.......

Northeast______Southeast______Great Lakes
Boston____________Atlanta_________Cincinnati
NY Mets__________Baltimore________Cleveland
Bronx______________Florida__________Detroit
Philadelphia________Tampa Bay______Minnesota
Toronto__________Washington_______Pittsburgh

Midwest______Southwest______California
Cubs_____________Arizona_________LA Angels
White Sox________Colorado________LA Dodgers
Kansas City_______Houston_________Oakland
Milwaukee_________Seattle_________San Diego
St Louis___________Texas________San Francisco

-- You play other four teams in your division four times (72), the other 10 teams in conference six times (60) then teams in one division of the other conference six times (30), making up the 162-game schedule.
-- In division rivalries, there would be six, three-game series, played once a month.
-- Six division winners make playoffs, plus one wild card in each conference.
-- The designated hitter would go away, except for All-Star Game, where it belongs.
-- Teams would take infield practice before games.
-- No coaches in uniform, though, and none allowed between the lines, once the game starts. This speeds the game up.
-- Each team plays six doubleheaders a year; three at home, three on road, which takes a week off the regular season.
-- Each team would have to pay out at least $60M a year to its players in salary, with a salary cap of $150M.
-- Foreign players are subject to free agent draft in June, just like college kids. No more spending a fortune on players from Asia, as free agents; everyone has same shot at taking them.

Baseball is a great game. Competitive balance would make it even greater. Maybe it isn't realistic, but I think the changes listed here would greatly improve the game.

[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Saturday, May 26

Hot Pitchers
-- Eaton is 1-0, 1.32 in his last couple of starts.
-- Colorado won four of last five Cook starts, scoring 33 runs. Morris is 2-0, 2.48 in his last four starts.
-- Webb is 3-1, 2.60 against teams other than Colorado, who he has faced four times already this season.
-- Germano is 2-0, 0.94 in three starts this season. Brewers are 7-1 in Vargas starts this season.

-- Angels won five of last six Escobar starts (4-1, 3.40). Wang is 2-0, 2.03 in his last couple of starts.
-- Sabathia is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts; Indians are 9-1 so far this season when he starts. Verlander is 4-0, 2.57 in his last four starts for Detroit.
-- Kennedy has 2.39 RA in nine starts, but A's are just 2-6 in the eight games.

Cold Pitchers
-- Cubs are 0-4 with Zambrano if they score less than six runs; he is 2-2, 6.07 in his last four starts. Hendrickson is 0-1, 8.41 in his last three starts.
-- Carlyle was 5-2, 2.59 in nine AAA starts, striking out 56 in 48.2 IP; he has made seven other big league starts (1-3. 7.41).
-- Maine is 0-2, 6.19 in his last three starts. Obermueller is 0-2, 6.89 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 6.19 in his last three starts. Chacon makes first '07 start; he is 1-0, 3.48 in relief this season. This is his 116th big league start (39-54, 5.05).
-- Thompson is 1-1, 4.67 in three starts this season. Speigner is
0-0, 11.57 in two starts for Washington.
-- Sampson is 1-3, 3.80 in his last four starts; Astros scored five runs total in those four games.

-- Wakefield is 0-2, 8.25 in his last couple starts. Red Sox scored three or less runs in five of his last six starts. Rangers lost eight of ten Padilla starts this season.
-- White Sox lost last four Vazquez starts (0-2, 4.61). Devil Rays are 0-8 in Jackson starts (0-6, 7.78).
-- Bannister is 0-2, 5.73 in five starts this season. Baek is 1-2, 6.04 in his last four starts.
-- Ortiz is 0-4, 8.26 in his last six starts. Ohka has an 8.27 RA in his three road starts this season.
-- Burres is 1-2, 5.93 in three starts this season.

Totals
-- Over is 8-0-1 in Zambrano's last nine starts.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Atlanta's last eight home games.
-- Under is 9-2 in Mets' last eleven road games.
-- Over is 11-2 in Cincinnati's last thirteen home games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Cardinals' last eight home games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Colorado games.
-- Five of last seven Webb starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee road games stayed under total.

-- Five of last six Angel road games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Cleveland's last seven road games, 9-0-1 in the Tigers' last ten home games.
-- Over is 7-3 in Baltimore's last ten home games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in Boston's last eleven road games.
-- Five of Royals' last six games went over the total.
-- Under is 13-6-1 in last twenty White Sox home games.
-- Over is 13-7-3 in Toronto road games this season.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won seven of their last ten games. Mets are 3-1 in the second game of road series, if they won the opener.
-- Braves won five of their last seven home games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six home games. Nationals won last four games, scoring 29 runs; they're 11-4 in last 15 games.
-- Arizona is 6-3 in its last nine home games.
-- Padres won nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Colorado won its last three games, allowing a total of 4 runs. Giants won four of last five games, allowing total of nine runs.
-- Dodgers won ten of their last twelve home games.

-- Detroit won five of its last seven games, scoring 55 runs.
-- Red Sox are 13-5 in their last eighteen road games.
-- Royals won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Toronto is 8-5 in its last thirteen games. Twins are 5-2 in their last seven games.
-- White Sox won four of their last five games.
-- Mariners won three of their last four games, scoring 32 runs.
-- A's won eight of their last twelve road games.

Cold Teams
-- Reds lost thirteen of their last sixteen home games. Pirates lost five of their last six games.
-- Phillies are 0-4 in game after their last four wins.
-- Astros lost their last six games, outscored 53-8.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last eleven road games.

-- Bronx is 5-9 in its last 14 games. Angels allowed twenty-six runs in their last three games. Mike Scioscia went back home to attend his son's high school graduation.
-- Indians lost six of their last nine road games.
-- Orioles lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Rangers lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Devil Rays lost six of their last seven road games.

Umpires
-- Favorite won last five Eddings games. (Chi-LA)
-- Four of last five Iassogna games went over the total. (Phil-Atl)
-- Favorite is 9-2 in last eleven Rapuano games. (NY-Fla)
-- Six of last seven Davidson games went over total. (Pitt-Cin)
-- Underdog is 7-2 in Reliford games this season. (Wsh-StL)
-- Six of last seven Diaz games stayed under the total. (Colo-SF)
-- Home team won last four Crawford games. (Hst-Az)
-- Six of last eight Montague games stayed under total. (Mil-SD)

-- Under is 6-2 in last eight Nelson games. (LA-NY)
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Hernandez games. (Bos-Tex)
-- Favorite is 7-1 in Wegner games this season. (Clev-Det)
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Cederstrom games. (TB-Chi)
-- Five of last six Cooper games went over the total. (Sea-KC)
-- Over is 9-3-2 in last fourteen Dowdy games. (Tor-Min)
-- Underdog won last four Marquez games. (A's-Balt)

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Saturday, May 26

San Antonio's halftime leads in two games at Alamo, 54-36 and 58-41, tell you what you need to know about competitiveness of series. Spurs put five in double figures in Game 2, Jazz only had two-- their bench played total of just 46:02, contributing a total of two baskets to the cause. Now Utah will play better at home; they're 7-0 at home in playoffs, but until they win a game in San Antonio, they have no chance in series.

[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


Saturday, May 26

Los Angeles (6-5) @ Kansas City (6-5) -- Avengers won three of last four games overall, but are 1-3 in last four road games, with a game at lowly Las Vegas the only win. Brigade won three of last four home games; they're 3-1 vs spread as a favorite. LA is 3-4 vs spread as an underdog. Six of last seven Kansas City games went under the total, as did Avengers' last three games.


Dallas (10-1) @ Columbus (6-5) -- Destroyers lost 53-51 (+15) in Dallas in Week 6, in game they led 37-14 at half; think it might be harder to come from way behind in AFL, since it is harder to get defensive stops. Columbus had four takeaways, still lost. Dallas had its bye last week; they won last three games, by 7,7,4 points and is 5-1 on road, with wins by 53,12,21,7 points. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Columbus games.


Colorado (8-4) @ Grand Rapids (3-8) -- Visiting Crush won five of last six games; they won three of last four games, but were upset at home in their season opener by Rampage, 44-42 (-10.5) in game Crush led 28-20 at the half. Grand Rapids is 2-8 since upsetting opening win; they're 1-5 in last six games, losing last two, by 3,25 points. Eight of last ten Rampage games went over total. Crush is still waiting for its bye; they could be tired.


Tampa Bay (5-6) @ Georgia (9-2) -- Force won 61-47 at Tampa Bay back in Week 3 (-6.5) in game that saw Storm drop to 0-3, Georgia rise to 3-0. Now Tampa is hot, going 4-0 since its bye, winning by 2,21,3,9 points behind new QB Dietz, who has energized Tampa's offense. Egiht of last ten Storm games went over the total, while Georgia is 5-0 at home, winning by 9,2,1,1521 points- they lost at LA last week, coming off bye, just their second loss of season.


Chicago (8-3) @ Arizona (3-9) -- Visiting Rush lost opener, then got eight wins in row, now they've lost last two games, scoring 37.5 ppg- they're 3-2 on road, winning by 8,12,21 pts, while losing 54-41 at Kansas City, 52-48 at Dallas. Arizona yet to have its bye; five of last seven Rattler games stayed under total. None of last five Arizona losses has been by less than seven points. Over is 6-3 in Chicago's last nine games.

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Saturday, May 26

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Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees (1:05 PM ET)
Los Angeles starter Kelvim Escobar is 6-7 with a 5.23 ERA in 34 career appearances (15 starts) against New York. EDGE: YANKEES
Escobar was rocked for eight runs and eight hits in just two innings of work in his last road start, an 11-3 loss to Seattle at Safeco Field. EDGE: YANKEES
New York right-hander Chien-Ming Wang is an even 2-2 with a 4.72 ERA in four home starts this season. He's won two straight outings, including an 6-2 victory over Boston on Monday. SLIGHT EDGE: YANKEES
The Angels knocked around Wang in his only career start against them, banging out 13 hits and five runs in 5 1/3 innings. EDGE: ANGELS & OVER
The UNDER is 14-6 in Wang's last 20 home starts.



Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (FOX | 3:55 PM ET)
Chicago's Carlos Zambrano is 1-1 with a fantastic 1.74 ERA in eight career outings (four starts) against Los Angeles. He's also 3-1 with a 4.09 ERA in five starts on the road this season. EDGE: CUBS
Zambrano allowed a season-high seven earned runs in his last start against the Chicago White Sox. EDGE: DODGERS & OVER
Cubs left-hander Mark Hendrickson is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA in four home appearances (two starts) this season. EDGE: DODGERS & UNDER
Hendrickson gave up a season-high five earned runs in his last start, allowing nine hits in a 6-2 loss to the Angels. EDGE: CUBS & OVER
The OVER is 23-5 in Zambrano's last 28 starts overall.



Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (FOX | 3:55 PM ET)
Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia has plenty of experience facing Detroit, with a 10-7 career record and 4.04 ERA against the Indians. SLIGHT EDGE: INDIANS
The Indians have won nine out of Sabathia's 10 starts this season, including his last two. He's allowed just two earned runs in his last 13 innings of work. EDGE: INDIANS
Tigers starter Justin Verlander is an even 2-2 with a 5.32 ERA in four career starts against the Indians. EDGE: OVER
Verlander has won four consecutive starts after picking up his first loss on April 28. He's 3-1 with a 3.99 ERA in five home starts. EDGE: TIGERS
The UNDER is 4-0 in Sabathia's last four starts versus the Tigers.



New York Mets at Florida Marlins (7:05 PM ET)
Mets right-hander John Maine is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in four starts away from Shea Stadium this season. BIG EDGE: METS
After picking up seven straight victories with Maine on the mound, New York has lost two consecutive games - getting outscored 16-3. EDGE: MARLINS
Florida's Wes Obermueller has fared relatively well against New York despite his 0-1 record against them, allowing four earned runs and eight hits in 13 2/3 innings. EDGE: UNDER
The Mets are 9-0 in Maine's last nine starts versus the NL East.



Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins (7:10 PM ET)
Blue Jays right-hander Tomo Ohka is 0-1 with an inflated 7.36 ERA in three career games against the Twins. EDGE: TWINS & OVER
Ohka has surrendered 15 runs and 22 hits in just 16 2/3 innings on the road this season. EDGE: OVER
Minnesota starter Ramon Ortiz is 4-7 with a 4.67 ERA in 13 career starts against Toronto. EDGE: BLUE JAYS
Tonight's start will mark Ortiz's third straight on the road, with the Twins losing the previous two. He's allowed 11 runs and 17 hits in just 5 1/3 innings over that span. BIG EDGE: BLUE JAYS & OVER
The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Minnesota.



Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET)
Boston's Tim Wakefield is a miserable 7-14 with a 5.89 ERA in 29 career appearances (22 starts) against Texas. He picked up his first loss of the season against Texas on April 6 despite allowing just one earned run over six innings. EDGE: RANGERS
Wakefield has pitched great on the road with an even 3-3 record and 2.65 ERA in six starts. SLIGHT EDGE: RED SOX & UNDER
Texas starter Vicente Padilla is 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against Boston. SLIGHT EDGE: RED SOX
Padilla's been solid at home during 2007 with a 2-2 record and 3.04 ERA in four starts. EDGE: RANGERS
The UNDER is 17-4 in Boston's last 21 games as a road favorite.



Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (9:05 PM ET)
Rockies right-hander Aaron Cook is 3-6 with a 5.23 ERA in 18 career appearances (13 starts) against the Giants. BIG EDGE: GIANTS
Colorado has won four of his last five starts overall, and Cook is 1-0 with a 3.51 ERA in five road starts this season. EDGE: ROCKIES
San Francisco starter Matt Morris is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in four home starts this season and comes into this matchup off his best start of the season. He picked up a 4-1 complete game victory over Oakland on May 20. BIG EDGE: GIANTS
The Rockies are 1-7 in Cook's last eight starts versus the Giants.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Tips and Trends

NBA
Tips and trends


Saturday, May 26

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#2 San Antonio Spurs at #4 Utah Jazz
Game 3 - Saturday, May 26th, 8:30 p.m. Eastern (ABC)

Utah is a perfect 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs, going 5-0-1 ATS. While the Jazz trailed at halftime twice against the Warriors in the second round, the fans provided a huge boost after the break and proved they could be a difference maker against the Spurs. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off to slow starts away from home in the playoffs, trailing four of five at halftime despite going 4-1 on the road in the postseason. EDGE: JAZZ

The Spurs have been able to play very well offensively at home, but they have taken a more defensive-oriented approach on the road. The UNDER is 4-1 in their five games away from home in the playoffs, as they have limited the opposition to just 94 points per game. EDGE: SPURS & UNDER

Extra rest has certainly helped the veteran-laden Spurs, who are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS when having a break of three of more days. The young Jazz have been just the opposite, playing better with little rest (3-3 SU & 1-4-1 ATS) under identical circumstances. Utah is 38-30-4 ATS when playing with one or two days of rest and 6-12 ATS when playing back-to-back days. EDGE: SPURS

San Antonio is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 Saturday games.
San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Utah is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
OVER is 6-2 in Utah's last 8 games.

Head-to-Head Recaps

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS (HOME team in CAPS)

RESULTS

San Antonio leads 2-0 SU & ATS
OVER 2-0

5/22/07 - Game 2 - SAN ANTONIO 105, Utah 96 (ATS winner: SA -6.5 | OVER 188)
SUMMARY: For the second straight game, the Spurs used a big second quarter to distance themselves from the Jazz and then held on for the cover despite being outscored in the second half. San Antonio has outscored Utah by 15 points in the second quarter of each of the first two games, topping the 30-point mark both times. The Jazz have then averaged nearly 60 points in the second half of both games to force the total OVER despite having their rallies fall short each time.

5/20/07 - Game 1 - SAN ANTONIO 108, Utah 100 (ATS winner: SA -6.5 | OVER 186.5)
SUMMARY: The Jazz outplayed the Spurs in the second half, but it wasn't nearly enough to overcome a poor second quarter. Utah was outscored 31-16 in the second to enter halftime down, 54-36. The Spurs could not contain Deron Williams in the fourth though, when the second-year point guard scored 18 of his game-high 34 points. The heroics of Williams was almost enough to cover the spread for Jazz backers, but San Antonio's Michael Finley went 8-of-8 from the free-throw line to prevent that from happening. The 118 points scored between both teams after the break - including 68 in the fourth quarter alone - were more than enough to force an easy OVER.

SCHEDULE

5/26/07 - Game 3 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ABC | 8:30 PM ET)
5/28/07 - Game 4 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
5/30/07 - Game 5 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
6/1/07 - Game 6 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
6/3/07 - Game 7 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 8:30 PM ET)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Series tied 2-2 SU & ATS
OVER/UNDER 2-2

3/30/07 - SAN ANTONIO 102, Utah 93 (ATS winner: SA -8 | OVER 185)
1/31/07 - UTAH 97, San Antonio 93 (ATS winner: Utah +5 | OVER 185.5)
12/28/06 - SAN ANTONIO 106, Utah 83 (ATS winner: SA -7.5 | UNDER 193.5)
11/29/06 - UTAH 83, San Antonio 75 (ATS winner: Utah +1 | UNDER 190.5)

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECAP: The home team won and covered each meeting during the regular season, with the Jazz also winning straight-up twice despite being an underdog in every game. It's important to note that the Jazz beat the Spurs in the first meeting when they were on fire to start the season and then were handled rather easily in the last one when they were struggling down the stretch. This could definitely be another series where home court plays an important factor in who advances though San Antonio is a far superior road team, proving that once again vs. Phoenix.

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[pm530]

MLB
”Baseball Today”


Saturday, May 26

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SCOREBOARD

Saturday, May 26

Colorado at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EDT). Giants right-hander Matt Morris threw a two-hitter with nine strikeouts in a 4-1 win over Oakland on Sunday.

STARS Friday

-Paul Lo Duca, Mets, had four hits in New York's 6-2 win over Florida.

-Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres, hit a grand slam to lead San Diego past Milwaukee 8-6.

-Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks, went 5-for-5 with two homers and four RBIs to help Arizona beat Houston 13-3.

-Kaz Matsui, Rockies, singled in the go-ahead run in the ninth inning and Colorado beat San Francisco 5-3.

TWENTY YEARS LATER

Every 20 years or so, Jamie Moyer beats the Braves. He was right on schedule Friday night. Moyer and the Philadelphia Phillies beat Atlanta 8-3 on Friday. The win came 20 years and two days after the only other time he beat the Braves. On May 23, 1987, he earned the win in relief as the Cubs beat the Braves in Chicago. The 44-year-old Moyer had never won in Atlanta and had lost six straight decisions to the Braves.

ANGELS' EDGE

The Angels are the only AL team to own an edge over the Yankees since Joe Torre became manager before the 1996 season. Following a 10-6 win on Friday, the Angels are now 56-52 against the Yankees in the regular season in that span - they've also beaten them twice in playoff series.

MILESTONES

Ken Griffey Jr. hit the 574th homer of his career in the sixth inning of Cincinnati's 10-4, 10-inning loss to Pittsburgh on Friday night, moving the Reds outfielder one ahead of Harmon Killebrew for eighth place on the career list. ... Toronto's Frank Thomas home run No. 494 in a 4-3 loss to the Twins to move past Lou Gehrig and Fred McGriff into sole possession of 21st place on baseball's career list.

PERFECT 10

Pittsburgh used an eight-run 10th inning to beat Cincinnati 10-4 on Friday night. It was the Pirates' biggest inning since they scored nine runs at Montreal on July 9, 2004. The Reds fell to 0-9 when the score is tied after seven innings and have lost 18 of 22, leaving them a major league-worst 18-31.

STREAKS

Derek Jeter extended his hitting streak to 19 games in New York's 10-6 loss to Los Angeles on Friday. ... Orlando Cabrera extended his hitting streak to a career-high 15 games for Los Angeles in a 10-6 win over New York. ... Arizona routed Houston 13-3 to hand the Astros their sixth straight loss.

SPEAKING

''It's not like every time we lose it's 'Here we go again.' It's not like the end of the world and we're back to playing the way we were.'' - Derek Jeter, on New York's 10-6 loss to Los Angeles on Friday after winning two of three against AL East-leading Boston.

SEASONS May 27

1904 - Dennis McGann of the New York Giants stole five bases in one game to set a major league record.

1937 - Carl Hubbell, working in relief for the New York Giants, won his 24th straight game over two seasons. Hubbell pitched two innings and Mel Ott hit a ninth-inning home run to beat the Cincinnati Reds 3-2. Hubbell's string started July 17, 1936.

1955 - Norm Zauchin of the Boston Red Sox knocked in 10 runs with three home runs and a double in the first five innings of a 16-0 victory over the Washington Senators.

1960 - Baltimore catcher Clint Courtney used the ''big mitt'' for the first time to catch knuckleball pitcher Hoyt Wilhelm. The mitt, designed by Paul Richards, was 50 percent larger than the standard. Nothing got by Courtney as the Orioles beat the New York Yankees 3-2.

1968 - Montreal and San Diego were awarded National League franchises as the league expanded for the first time in seven years.

1997 - Seattle's Ken Griffey Jr. broke his own major league record for home runs hit through May by connecting for his 23rd of the season in an 11-10 loss to Minnesota. Griffey's homer broke the mark he set in 1994.

2004 - Carlos Pena was 6-for-6 with two home runs, five RBIs and four runs in Detroit's 17-7 victory over Kansas City.

Today's birthdays:
Ramon Hernandez 31; Frank Thomas 38.

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Hot Lines

NBA
Hot Lines


Saturday, May 26

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San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz (-2, 190)

The Jazz fell short in both games at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, rallying from hefty first-half deficits in both games to fall short of covering the spread in the fourth.

With Mehmet Okur disappearing on offense, Utah has become a two-man show featuring Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams. The pair combined for 113 of the Jazz’s 196 points in Games 1 and 2 and inspired Spurs forward Robert Horry to suggest that the pair would be better than legendary Jazz duo Karl Malone and John Stockton in a couple of years.

It’s likely a case of the veteran Spurs sweet-talking a young opponent they’re readying to slap around on Saturday. That’s bad news for Utah backers with the Jazz now favored and the defensive stopper Bruce Bowen determined to stop Williams like he did Steve Nash in the Spurs recent series with the Phoenix Suns.

"(Bowen) watches film and is a student of the game, as much, or more, than anybody,” Tim Duncan told the San Antonio Express News. “Situations happen and things happen and he will adjust to them. He will do a much better job in games to come. You will see things get harder for (Williams)."

"I think Bruce is just getting used to Deron, to be honest,” Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich added. “I think he understands Steve Nash because he's played him enough.”

The Jazz haven’t shown they can stop the Spurs’ offense. Now that San Antonio’s promising an improved defensive effort, it’s tough to go against the three-time champs getting points, despite Utah's unblemished home record this postseason.

Pick: Spurs +2

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball (women) – Hot Lines

WNBA
Hot Lines


Saturday, May 26

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Los Angeles Sparks at Connecticut Sun (-5, 148 1/2)

These teams meet twice a summer and the Sun hold a 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS advantage over the Sparks since 2004. The key difference between Saturday afternoon’s clash and the previous meetings, of course, is that the Sparks won’t have three-time WNBA MVP Lisa Leslie anchoring the middle.

Los Angeles missed Leslie on Thursday night when they lost 83-70 as a 4-point road underdog to the Indiana Fever. The Sparks were outrebounded and all three Indiana frontcourt starters scored in double-digits.

Now the Sparks head even further east for Connecticut’s home opener. The Sun were 14-3 SU and 8-8-1 ATS at home in 2006.

They lost their last game as well, falling 74-71 as a 4-point road favorite to the San Antonio Silver Stars on Wednesday. Connecticut backers can take heart, however, from the Sun’s near-miraculous comeback. They rallied from 25 points down with 6:11 to go to make it a 1-point game before just falling short.

The Sun are one of the WNBA’s elite teams and their 53-35 second-half edge in San Antonio proved it. They won’t commit 22 turnovers in front of the home crowd on Saturday afternoon and this should be the last time bettors see Connecticut sitting at .500 in the standings all season.

Pick: Sun

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet


Saturday, May 26

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SAN ANTONIO (68 - 27) at UTAH (59 - 37) - 5/26/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 52-42 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 187-146 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
UTAH is 116-139 ATS (-36.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 35-49 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-4 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Saturday, May 26

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LOS ANGELES (6 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 5) - 5/26/2007, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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DALLAS (10 - 1) at COLUMBUS (6 - 5) - 5/26/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
DALLAS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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COLORADO (8 - 4) at GRAND RAPIDS (3 - 8) - 5/26/2007, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GRAND RAPIDS is 3-2 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 3-2 straight up against GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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TAMPA BAY (5 - 6) at GEORGIA (9 - 2) - 5/26/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in May games since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 4-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 4-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CHICAGO (8 - 3) at ARIZONA (3 - 9) - 5/26/2007, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
ARIZONA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 8 or more games since 1996.
ARIZONA is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a game on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet


Saturday, May 26th

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Western Conference Playoffs
Conference Finals, Game Three
San Antonio Leads, 2-0
TV: ESPN
San Antonio at Utah, 8:35 ET

San Antonio:
29-14 ATS playing with two days rest
16-7 ATS off BB home games

Utah:
20-7 Under trailing in a playoff series
6-1 Under after playing BB games as road underdog

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Cleveland at Detroit
The Tigers try to bounce back from last night's loss behind Justin Verlander, who 4-1 over his last five starts with a 3.19 ERA. As a team, the Tigers are 7-2 with Verlander on the mound this season. Cleveland starter C.C. Sabathia has a road ERA over a point higher than his season average (4.81 to 3.53) and got roughed up in his last road appearance for six runs on nine hits in an 8-2 loss at Oakland on May 11. The Tigers look like a good pick (-127) to pick up the win in this one according to Dunkel, which has Detroit favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-127). Here are all of today's games.

SATURDAY, MAY 26

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.835; LA Dodgers (Hendrickson) 16.247
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-119); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+119); Over

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Eaton) 16.294; Atlanta (Carlyle) 16.746
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-117); 10
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-117); Under

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 15.612; Florida (Obermueller) 15.395
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-145); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Chacon) 15.282; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.483
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+200); Under

Game 959-960: Washington at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Speigner) 15.230; St. Louis (Thompson) 16.154
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 11
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-178); 10
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-178); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 16.419; San Francisco (Morris) 17.064
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-151); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-151); Under

Game 963-964: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Sampson) 12.762; Arizona (Webb) 16.156
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-165); Over

Game 965-966: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Vargas) 16.462; San Diego (Germano) 17.459
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-116); Under

Game 967-968: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Escobar) 16.861; NY Yankees (Wang) 17.153
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-168); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-168); Over

Game 969-970: Boston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.496; Texas (Padilla) 15.125
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Boston (-152); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-152); Over

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sabathia) 16.291; Detroit (Verlander) 19.173
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-127); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-127); Over

Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Jackson) 13.770; White Sox (Vazquez) 15.490
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-200); Under

Game 975-976: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Baek) 15.036; Kansas City (Bannister) 15.250
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-121); 10
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+121); Over

Game 977-978: Toronto at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Ohka) 14.932; Minnesota (Ortiz) 15.017
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-142); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-142); Under

Game 979-980: Oakland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kennedy) 16.076; Baltimore (Burres) 15.154
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Under