Wednesday Trends and Indexes 05/23

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Wednesday, May 23

Good Luck on day #143 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Wednesday

-- Braves' pitcher Davies hit homer over centerfield fence, just his fifth big league hit; can't ever remember seeing a pitcher homer over centerfield fence before. Good poke.

-- Scott Kazmir took 96 pitches to get 15 outs; as usual, the Devil Rays bullpen took over and blew game from there. It seems possible that Kazmir will wind up as a closer.

-- Padres' Adrian Gonzalez might be most underrated hitter in the major leagues. He's that good.

-- Colby Lewis had rough major league debut for Oakland, getting ten outs while allowing ten runs in a 10-4 loss.

-- Giants' rookie Tim Lincecum went head-to-head with Roy Oswalt twice, and Giants won both games, as rookie from Washington allowed only two earned runs in 15 innings.

-- Even though I have the DirecTV Extra Innings package, I couldn't watch Bronx-Red Sox game Tuesday, thanks to the blackout rules, while next door neighbor with regular cable could watch. Another reason why lawyers are nitwits.

[pm530]

Wednesday's list of 13: Quarterly report on the umpires


13) Through Monday night, 190,880 pitches had been tossed this baseball season, with an average of 16.3 per inning, 5.45 per out, 3.79 per plate appearance.

12) An average game has 9.11 runs in it, unless it is umpired by John Hirschbeck, who hasn't umped the plate since game in New York between Mets and Rockies, when Hirschbeck called Matt Holliday out on pitches that had to be 25 inches apart. He favors pitchers way too much, but prejudices such as his are what makes charting umpires a lot of fun.

The following stats are for the first 25% of the 2007 season. Things always change, but this is what happened so far.......
11) Umpires who favor the under:
-- Marsh, 9-1 under.
-- Crawford, Drake, Foremming, all 7-2 under.
-- Danley 6-2 under.
-- Scott 8-3 under.

10) Umpires who favor the over:
-- Dowdy, 4-1 over.
-- Barksdale, West both 7-2 over.
-- Kellogg, 7-3 over.

9) Umpires where home team has thrived:
-- Bucknor, 7-0
-- Marsh, Vanover both 9-1
-- Holbrook, 8-1
-- Cederstrom, 8-2

8) Umpires where home team has struggled:
-- Hudson, 1-7
-- Cousins, 2-7
-- Demuth, Dreckman, Gorman, Kulpa, all 3-7.

7) Umpires where favorites thrive:
-- Scott, +$780
-- Meals, +$650
-- Reed, +$590
-- Guccione, +$546
-- Vanover, +$535
-- Montague, +$510

6) Umpires who burn the favorites:
-- Hudson, -$914
-- Foster, -$614
-- Meriwether, -$559
-- Kulpa, -$414
-- BWelke, -$395
-- Drake, -$370

5) Umpires with high pitches per batter (these umps are bad for teams with poor bullpens)
-- Knight 4.16
-- Hernandez, 4.08
-- Hoye, 4.04
-- Miller, 4.00

4) Umpires with low pitches per batter (MLB average is 3.79)
-- Everitt, 3.49
-- BWelke, 3.51
-- Cooper, 3.55
-- Barrett, 3.64

3) Umpires with high pitches per out:
-- Randazzo, 5.99
-- Fairchild, 5.96
-- Miller, Vanover, both 5.94
-- Guccione, 5.90

2) Umpires with low pitches per out (MLB average is 5.45)
-- BWelke, 4.83
-- Everitt, 4.95
-- Cooper, 5.01
-- Drake, 5.06

1) Charting umpires can help you win total bets, but umpires can't save you from a dismal pitcher. Ump charts are a tool to help us, but studying the pitchers is still the #1 way to go.

[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Wednesday, May 23

Hot Pitchers
-- Kim won his first Marlins' start, allowing three runs in 5.1 IP.
-- Braves are 4-0 with James if they give him four or more runs. Perez is 2-0, 1.69 in his last couple of starts.
-- Pirates won Snell's last three starts, scoring 28 runs.
-- Francis is 1-0, 2.01 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers are 4-1 in Penny home starts (2-0, 2.05).

-- Bonser is 2-0, 3.00 in his last five starts.
-- Colon is 5-0, 3.69 in six starts this season. Durbin is 3-0, 2.40 in his last five starts.
-- Red Sox won seven of Schilling's last eight starts.
-- Indians won three of first four Lee starts, scoring 27 runs.
-- Garland is 3-0, 2.01 in his last three starts. A's won Gaudin's last three starts, scoring 31 runs.

Cold Pitchers
-- Garcia is 1-2, 4.93 in his last five starts.
-- Lohse is 0-5, 8.64 in his last five starts. Simontacchi is 1-2, 5.71 in three starts for the Nationals.
-- KWells is 0-7, 9.00 in his last seven starts.
-- Davis is 0-3, 5.73 in his last four starts.
-- Marshall was 6-9, 5.59 in 24 starts for Cubs last year. Padres are 1-5 with D.Wells if they score less than seven runs.
-- Brewers were outscored 17-2 in last two Capuano starts.
-- Albers is 1-3, 10.34 in his last four starts. Zito is 1-3, 6.30 in his last five starts.

-- Tejeda is 0-2, 6.11 in his last three home starts.
-- Pettitte is 0-1, 5.73 in two starts vs Boston this season. Bronx is 1-6 in his starts if they give him less than eight runs.
-- Orioles lost four of Trachsel's last five starts. McGowan is 0-1, 8.92 in three starts this season.
-- Batista is 0-2, 11.00 in his last couple starts. Fossum has 9.88 RA in his last five starts.
-- Elarton has a 6.10 RA in his first two '07 starts.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1 in Phillies' last seven games.
-- Over is 8-1 in last nine Cincinnati home games.
-- Five of last seven James starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 10-3 in last thirteen Pittsburgh road games.
-- Five of last six Davis starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1 in D.Wells' starts at Petco Park.
-- Over is 14-4-1 in last nineteen games at Dodger Stadium.
-- Under is 5-1 in Giants' last six games.

-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Bonser starts.
-- Under is 5-1 in Durbin's last six starts.
-- Under is 17-4-1 in Boston road games.
-- Over is 6-1 in last seven games at Camden Yards.
-- Five of last six Fossum starts went over the total.
-- Three of Lee's first four starts went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Garland starts.


Hot Teams
-- Florida won six of its last seven games. Phillies are 8-4 in last twelve games.
-- Mets are 14-6 on the road this season.
-- Arizona won four of its last six games.
-- Padres won seven of their last nine home games.
-- Giants won their last three games, 4-1/4-0/4-2.

-- Detroit won three of its last four home games. Angels won five of last six games, allowing total of ten runs.
-- Red Sox won fifteen of their last twenty games.
-- White Sox are 11-5 in their last sixteen games.
-- Indians won seven of their last ten games. Royals won seven of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Reds lost fifteen of their last twenty games. Nationals lost nine of their last ten road games.
-- Braves lost four of their last six games.
-- Cardinals lost five of last six games, allowing 46 runs. Pirates lost nine of their last thirteen road games.
-- Colorado lost eleven of its last seventeen road games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Dodgers lost four of last four games, outscored 30-11. Brewers are 3-7 in their last ten games.
-- Astros lost five of their last six games.

-- Bronx Bombers lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Toronto lost eight of its last ten away games. Orioles are 5-7 in their last dizen home games.
-- Twins lost nine of their last thirteen games. Texas is 5-10 in its last fifteen games.
-- Oakland is 4-7 in its last eleven games, has no healthy closer.
-- Mariners lost five of their last seven games. Devil Rays lost last four games, all at home.

Umpires
-- Home side is 6-2 in Timmons games (Phil-Fla)
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Barksdale games (Wash-Cin)
-- Barrett's 5.18 pitches/out is one of lowest in MLB (NY-Atl)
-- Faves are -$414 on $100 plays in Kulpa's 10 games (Pitt-StL)
-- Road team won seven of nine Cousins games (Colo-Ariz)
-- Over is 4-2 in Bell games this season (Chi-SD)
-- Visitor is 6-3 in Wendelstedt games this season (Mil-LA)
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Tschida games this season (Hst-SF)

-- Favorites are -$914 in Hudson games, worst in MLB (Min-Tex)
-- Favorite is 7-2 in last nine Reilly games. (LA-Det)
-- Home side is 7-0 in Bucknor games this season (Bos-NY)
-- Over is 6-3 in Runge games this season (Tor-Balt)
-- Darling's average total of 11.4 is highest in MLB (Sea-TB)
-- Hallion's average total of 7.25 is 4th-lowest in MLB (Cle-KC)
-- Favorites are +$226 in O'Nora games this year (A's-Chi).

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Wednesday, May 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (2:05 PM ET)

Twins right-hander Boof Bonser has pitched well on the road this season, going 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts. He’s walked just six batters while striking out 20 in 18 innings of work. EDGE: TWINS
After failing to record a victory in his first seven starts, Bonser has picked up back-to-back victories in his last two outings. He struck out a season-high 11 batters in an 8-1 victory over Milwaukee last time out. EDGE: TWINS
Texas starter Robinson Tejada is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in four home starts this season. SLIGHT EDGE: OVER
The Twins are 6-1 in Bonser’s last seven road starts.



Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM ET)

Toronto’s Dustin McGowan is 0-1 with a 8.79 ERA in five career appearances against Baltimore. He’s allowed 15 runs and 21 hits in just 14 1/3 innings against them. EDGE: ORIOLES & OVER
McGowan has allowed at least four earned runs in all three of his starts in 2007. His main problem has been command of his pitches, issuing 10 free passes in 15 1/3 innings. EDGE: OVER
Orioles right-hander Steve Trachsel is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in five career starts against the Blue Jays. He picked up his second win of the season against Toronto, allowing just one runs and four hits over 5 1/3 innings. BIG EDGE: ORIOLES
The Blue Jays are 1-5 in McGowan’s last six road starts.



Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (7:05 PM ET)

Angels starter Bartolo Colon is 8-8 with a 5.03 ERA in 20 career starts against the Tigers. He’s a perfect 5-0 with a 3.69 ERA this season, but has a 5.50 ERA on the road. SLIGHT EDGE: TIGERS & OVER
Los Angeles has won five out of Colon’s six starts this season, outscoring opponents 41-24. BIG EDGE: ANGELS
Detroit right-hander Chad Durbin is 0-2 in three career starts against Los Angeles despite carrying a respectable 3.05 ERA. SLIGHT EDGE: ANGELS & UNDER
Durbin’s control at home has left a lot to be desired, issuing 10 walks in just 8 2/3 innings that has led to an inflated 6.23 home ERA. EDGE: OVER
The Angels are 21-5 in Colon’s last 26 road starts.



Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (ESPN | 7:05 PM ET)

Boston’s Curt Schilling is 7-5 with a 4.57 ERA in 20 career appearances (15 starts) against New York. He picked up a no-decision in his last start against the Red Sox, as Boston came away with a 7-6 victory on April 20. SLIGHT EDGE: RED SOX & OVER
Schilling is a solid 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in four road starts this season. All four of his road starts have been low scoring, with an average of just seven runs combined. EDGE: RED SOX & UNDER
Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte is 13-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 25 career outings (23 starts) against the Red Sox. He was drilled for five runs and six hits against Boston and Schilling on April 20. SLIGHT EDGE: YANKEES & UNDER
The OVER is 7-0 in Schilling’s last seven starts versus the Yankees.



New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (7:35 PM ET)

New York’s Oliver Perez picked up a win in his only career start against Atlanta this season, as the Mets blew out the Braves 11-1 at Turner Field. EDGE: METS
Perez has won consecutive starts for the first this season. He lasted a season-high 8 1/3 innings in a 9-1 victory over first-place Milwaukee and followed it up with a 3-2 victory over the New York Yankees. EDGE: METS
Braves left-hander Chuck James is 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA in five career appearances against the Mets. He allowed a season-high 10 hits against the Mets in a 7-2 loss at Shea Stadium on April 21. EDGE: METS
James is an even 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA in three home starts this season. SLIGHT EDGE: BRAVES & UNDER
The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta.



Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox (8:11 PM ET)

Oakland’s Chad Gaudin has allowed just two runs and four hits over 10 1/3 career innings against Chicago. EDGE: UNDER
The Athletics picked up a 2-1 victory in Gaudin’s second start of the season against the White Sox, as he allowed just one run over 5 2/3 innings. EDGE: ATHLETICS
White Sox starter Jon Garland is a dismal 3-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 11 career starts against the Athletics, but did throw seven shutout innings against Oakland in a 2-1 road loss on April 10. SLIGHT EDGE: ATHLETICS & UNDER
The UNDER is 6-1 in Garland’s last seven starts versus the Athletics.



Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (10:05 PM ET)

Chicago left-hander Ted Lilly is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts against San Diego. He’s also a perfect 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in three away starts this season. BIG EDGE: CUBS
Padres starter David Wells has pitched well at Petco Park this season without picking up a decision, allowing just nine runs and 25 hits in 26 2/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES & UNDER
Wells is coming off his best start of 2007, tossing a season-high eight innings and allowing a season-low one run in a 2-1 loss to Cincinnati. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES
The OVER is 12-3-1 in Wells’ last 16 starts as an underdog.



Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)

After going a perfect 5-0 in his first seven starts, Milwaukee’s Chris Capuano has picked up consecutive losses. He’s allowed 10 runs and 14 hits in just 9 1/3 innings. EDGE: DODGERS & OVER
Capuano is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in eight career outings against Los Angeles. The Brewers picked up a 4-3 victory over the Dodgers on April 3 with Capuano on the hill. SLIGHT EDGE: BREWERS
Los Angeles starter Brad Penny looks to bounce back after picking up his first loss of the season against Los Angeles on May 18. He’s 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in five home starts this season. EDGE: DODGERS
Penny is an even 2-2 with a 5.65 ERA in six career starts against the Brewers. EDGE: OVER
The Brewers are 2-8 in Capuano’s last 10 starts as a road underdog.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

Baseball – Starting Pitchers

MLB
Starting Pitchers


Wednesday, May 23rd

National League

Philadelphia at Florida, 7:05 ET
Freddy Garcia (R) vs. Ricky Nolasco (R)

Washington at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Jason Simontacchi (R) vs. Kyle Lohse (R)

NY Mets at Atlanta, 7:35 ET TBS
Oliver Perez (L) vs. Chuck James (L)

Pittsburgh at St. Louis, 8:10 ET
Ian Snell (R) vs. Kip Wells (R)

Colorado at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Jeff Francis (L) vs. Doug Davis (L)

Chicago Cubs at San Diego, 10:05 ET WGN
Angel Guzman (R) vs. David Wells (L)

Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Chris Capuano (L) vs. Brad Penny (R)

Houston at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
Matt Albers (R) vs. Barry Zito (L)


American League

Minnesota at Texas, 2:05 ET
Boof Bonser (R) vs. Robinson Tejeda (R)

LA Angels at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Bartolo Colon (R) vs. Chad Durbin (R)

Boston at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET ESPN
Curt Schilling (R) vs. Andy Pettitte (L)

Toronto at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Dustin McGowan (R) vs. Steve Trachsel (R)

Seattle at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Miguel Batista (R) vs. Cassey Fossum (L)

Cleveland at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Cliff Lee (L) vs. Scott Elarton (R)

Oakland at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Chad Gaudin (R) vs. Jon Garland (R)

[pm530]

Pro Basketball (women) – Hot Lines

WNBA
Hot Lines


Wednesday, May 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut Sun at San Antonio Silver Stars (+2, 148)

The season isn't a week old but after the Silver Stars lost their opening game, the sense of defeatism was apparent. San Antonio led the Phoenix Mercury 18-15 in the first quarter of Saturday’s contest but they allowed Phoenix to go on a 15-0 run and steal the game. However, San Antonio reduced a 20-point deficit in the second half that left coach Dan Hughes optimistic.

“If we’d have been sitting down 10 or 11, this would have been a heck of a finish,” he said after the game.

Brutal. Has this team forgotten what winning feels like? The franchise has gone a combined 29-73 in its last three seasons.

Connecticut has a deep bench and had no problem playing an uptempo pace with the Washington Mystics. The Sun had nine players log double-digit minutes and four players score 10 or more points in the season opener.

Pick: Sun



Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm (-5 1/2, 169 1/2)

Things weren’t looking too good for the Storm on Saturday. They were down 22 points with 15 minutes remaining against the Houston Comets when something miraculous happened.

“I just looked up there and we were going down 15, 17, 22 and we just looked shell shocked,” Seattle coach Anne Donovan said after the game. “Then all of a sudden one basket here, one stop there and just kept building on it.”

Seattle closed the game on a 44-9 run and beat Houston 82-69.

“For the first game of the season and the way we played after that run in the third quarter, it was pretty amazing,” Storm center Lauren Jackson said.

Expect the momentum to spill over into Wednesday night. Phoenix is still working three starters back into the mix. Diana Taurasi, Penny Taylor and Cappie Pondexter all missed the preseason because they were finishing up seasons with different teams overseas.

Pick: Storm

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

MLB
”Baseball Today”


Wednesday, May 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baseball Today - Wed, May 23, 2007

SCOREBOARD Wednesday, May 23
Milwaukee at Los Angeles (10:10 p.m. EDT). Chris Capuano and Brad Penny square off.

STARS Tuesday

-Kyle Davies, Braves, gave up one run in eight innings and hit a three-run homer in Atlanta''s 8-1 rout of the Mets.

-Felipe Lopez, Nationals, hit a grand slam and had six RBIs to help Washington rally to an 8-4 victory over Cincinnati.

-Jim Thome, White Sox, hit a three-run homer and had five RBIs to lead Chicago past Oakland 10-4.

-Johan Santana, Twins, gave up one run and struck out a season-high 13 in seven innings in a 7-1 win over Texas.

-Mike Cameron, Padres, hit two homers in San Diego''s 5-1 win over Chicago.

BIRTHDAY BOY

Julian Tavarez improved his record to 3-4 on his 34th birthday in Boston''s 7-3 win over New York on Tuesday. Tavarez allowed two runs and three hits over 5 2-3 innings in winning his second straight start. The previous major league pitcher to start and win on his birthday was Derek Lowe of the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 1 last year.

NEARING MILESTONES

Sammy Sosa homered off Johan Santan in Texas'' 7-1 loss to Minnesota on Tuesday to move within two of becoming the fifth player in major league history with 600 career homers. ... Ken Griffey Jr. tied Harmon Killebrew for eighth on the career home run list with his second shot in two games in Cincinnati''s 8-4 loss to Washington. Griffey has 573 career homers, trailing Mark McGwire by 10.

DROUGHT

Barry Bonds has played in 12 games since his last home run - his longest homerless stretch since the first 13 games of 2006. He has gone 34 at-bats and 53 plate appearances without a homer, remaining 10 shy of tying Hank Aaron''s career home run record of 755. During that stretch since the homer, Bonds has drawn 19 walks with seven intentional free passes, struck out eight times and is batting .147 (5-for-34). He went 0-for-2 with two walks in San Francisco''s 4-2 win over Houston on Tuesday.

STREAKS

Derek Jeter pushed his hitting streak to 17 games in New York''s 7-3 loss to Boston on Tuesday night. Kevin Youkilis extended his hitting streak to a career-best 15 games for the Red Sox in the win. ... Ichiro Suzuki extended his hitting streak to 15 games in Seattle''s 5-2 win over Tampa Bay. He has a major league-best 23 hitting streaks of 10 or more games since his rookie season in 2001. ... Yadier Molina extended his hitting streak to 14 games in St. Louis'' 9-4 win over Pittsburgh.

SNAPPED

Randy Winn had his career-best 20-game hitting streak snapped in San Francisco''s 4-2 win over Houston on Tuesday. ... Toronto''s Matt Stairs went 0-for-3 in a 6-4 win over Baltimore to end his streak of consecutive games with a home run at three. ... St. Louis ended a five-game losing streak with a 9-4 victory over Pittsburgh. ... The Los Angeles Dodgers beat Milwaukee 3-2 to snap a season-high four-game losing streak.

SPEAKING

''If that''s what it takes, I''ll start screaming in the top of the first.'''' - Marlins hurler Scott Olsen, on getting angry with Philadelphia''s Chase Utley for calling timeout just as he was about to deliver a pitch in Tuesday''s game. Utley walked on the next pitch and Olsen angrily shouted at him as he trotted to first base. In the bottom of the inning, the Marlins totaled four extra-base hits to rally for a 5-3 win.

SEASONS May 23

1901 - The Cleveland Indians scored nine runs with two outs in the ninth inning to beat the Washington Senators 14-13.

1924 - Washington''s Walter Johnson struck out 14 in a 4-0 one-hitter over the Chicago White Sox for his 103rd shutout.

1925 - Cincinnati pitcher Pete Donohue had five hits - four singles and a homer - in beating the Philadelphia Phillies 11-2.

1935 - The first major league night game, scheduled for Cincinnati, was postponed because of rain.

1962 - New York''s Joe Pepitone hit two homers in the nine-run eighth inning of the Yankees'' 13-7 triumph over Kansas City.

1970 - The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants battled for 15 innings, with the Padres winning 17-16. Nate Colbert led San Diego with five hits and four RBIs.

1984 - The Detroit Tigers won their 16th consecutive road game, 4-2 at California, tying an AL record.

1991 - Tommy Greene, making the 15th start of his major league career, pitched a no-hitter and the Philadelphia Phillies beat Montreal 2-0.

2002 - Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shawn Green became the 14th man in major league history to homer four times in a game and set a big league record with 19 total bases. He went 6-for-6, scoring six times with seven RBIs in a 16-3 win at Milwaukee.

2003 - Jeremi Gonzalez earned his first major league victory in nearly five years as Tampa Bay beat Anaheim 3-1. Gonzalez won for the first time since June 28, 1998, while with the Chicago Cubs. He had elbow surgery in 1998 and ''99 before the Cubs released him in 2001.

Today''s birthdays: Kirk Saarloos, 28; Mike Gonzalez, 29; Chris Sampson, 29; Ramon Ortiz, 34.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Wednesday, May 23


Hot pitchers

Jon Garland (Chicago White Sox) - After going winless in his first five starts of the season, Garland has won his last three outings and only gave up five earned runs in the process. Garland has been a workhorse in 2007 and has lasted seven or more innings in all but one start. The White Sox host Oakland tonight as -126 favorites with the total set at 9.

Boof Bonser (Minnesota Twins) - Bonser is coming off a career high 11-strikeout performance in an 8-1 victory at Milwaukee and has shown a knack for always giving the Twins a chance to win. He hasn't lost since April 10 against the Yankees, a string of seven starts in which he posted a tidy 2.68 ERA while earning two consecutive victories. Bonser and the Twins have good value today as +109 underdogs on the road in Texas.

Chad Durbin (Detroit Tigers) - The journeyman right-hander's stay in the Tigers' rotation was not supposed to last this long. After losing on April 9, Durbin has rattled off a 3-0 record in seven starts including victories over division rivals Minnesota and Chicago. Detroit is listed at -103 at home tonight versus the Los Angeles Angels.

Cold Pitchers

Kyle Lohse (Cincinnati Reds) - Lohse is coming of a disastrous start against the Indians in which he gave up seven runs and didn't make it out of the second inning. In fact, he hasn't won in six starts while losing five straight with the game playing over in four of those contests. The Reds are at home tonight as -165 favorites against the Washington Nationals with the total set at 9 1/2.

Kip Wells (St. Louis Cardinals) - An ERA of 6.75 and seven consecutive losses have Wells clinging to his rotation spot. Wells has struggled with control problems which keep him from lasting far into games while putting pressure on the Cardinals bullpen. St. Louis is getting the same odds as its opponent tonight, the Pittsburgh Pirates, at about -106.

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Pittsburgh at St. Louis
One of the reasons for the disappointing start by the Cardinals has been the poor pitching from Kip Wells. The former Pirate has not adjusted well to his new surroundings and comes in with a 1-8 record and 6.75 ERA. Over his last five starts, those numbers look even worse as Wells is 0-5 with a 10.38 ERA. Today Wells will go up against his former team and one of the better-kept secrets in the league in Ian Snell. Despite pitching for a team six games under .500, Snell has led the Pirates to a 4-1 record in his last five starts and 6-3 overall with a solid 2.78 ERA. Pittsburgh looks like a good pick (-110) in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 23

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Garcia) 16.367; Florida (Kim) 15.716
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-131); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-131); Under

Game 903-904: Washington at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Simontachi) 14.543; Cincinnati (Lohse) 15.532
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Over

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 17.165; Atlanta (James) 16.757
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 16.643; St. Louis (Wells) 13.407
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Under

Game 909-910: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.270; Arizona (Davis) 15.659
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-125); Under

Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Marshall) 15.461; San Diego (Wells) 16.784
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 913-914: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Capuano) 16.503; LA Dodgers (Penny) 15.557
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Over

Game 915-916: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Albers) 16.042; San Francisco (Zito) 15.810
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Bonser) 15.959; Texas (Tejeda) 15.767
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Colon) 16.477; Detroit (Durbin) 16.870
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Schilling) 17.344; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.294
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+135); Over

Game 923-924: Toronto at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (McGowan) 15.108; Baltimore (Trachsel) 16.465
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-140); Over

Game 925-926: Seattle at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Batista) 14.403; Tampa Bay (Fossum) 14.895
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-117); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-117); Under

Game 927-928: Cleveland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 17.500; Kansas City (Elarton) 15.704
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-170); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-170); Under

Game 929-930: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gaudin) 17.014; White Sox (Garland) 16.157
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+135); Over

[Udog]

MLB
Hot Lines


Wednesday, May 23


Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers: (-103, 9)

The AL West-leading Angels are putting some serious space between them and the rest of the division since winning six straight games and eight of their last 10.

Los Angeles started the season with one of the best batting averages in the majors but was unable to drive in base runners due to the lack of power in the order. But since shuffling their lineup due to injury issues, it seems manager Mike Scioscia has flicked on the power switch.

During their six-game streak the Angels are averaging nearly six runs per game, almost 1 ½ runs better than their season average. Slugger Vladimir Guerrero has continued to produce but is now getting help in the middle of the order from former leadoff hitter Gary Matthews Jr.

The centerfielder was bumped into the cleanup spot after Garret Anderson was put on the DL with a hip injury. Since moving into the 4-hole, Matthews has knocked in nine runs in 36 at-bats – the same amount of runs driven in during his 115 at-bats when hitting leadoff this season.

Pick: Angels -105




Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals: (+161, 10 ½)

Who’d have thunk it? The Kansas City Royals are competing in the AL Central after winning seven of their last 10 games, including Tuesday night’s win over division leader Cleveland.

“You hear guys talking in here, ‘What’s our record? How far back are we from Minnesota?’ ” catcher John Buck told the Kansas City Star. “You didn’t hear that in the past. We’d be satisfied if we got a couple of wins. Now you hear guys saying, ‘How far are we out of first place? Ten games? Oh, we can do that.’

“The whole attitude of the team is different. We’re moving in the right direction.”

The Royals had a couple convincing wins, like a 10-5 victory over Colorado, but have shown true grit to hang in when the going gets tough. Four of Kansas City’s last 10 games were decided by one run and the Royals managed to pull out a win in three of those nail-bitters.

Pick: Royals +161




Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: (-110, 9)

Colorado starter Jeff Francis is beginning to find his form. Too bad his teammates keep hiding it on him.

The Rockies left-hander has a 2-4 record with a 4.60 ERA this season but in his last three starts, Francis posted an ERA just over 2.00 and has pitched into at least the seventh inning in each game. Unfortunately for Francis and Colorado backers, the Rockies bullpen has wasted these efforts by allowing the deciding runs late in the game.

Francis is 6-1 in 12 starts against the Diamondbacks during his career and has a 3.68 ERA.

Pick: Rockies +102

[kbsooner21]

Thanks guys!

[Udog]

Sure, kb! Good luck tonight!

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, May 23rd

National League

Philadelphia at Florida, 7:05 EST
Freddy Garcia (R) vs. Ricky Nolasco (R)
Garcia: 13-2 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest
Nolasco: Fla 20-5 Over vs. division opponents

Washington at Cincinnati, 7:10 EST
Jason Simontacchi (R) vs. Kyle Lohse (R)
Simontacchi: Wash 3-11 vs. Cincinnati
Lohse: 11-2 Over in home games

NY Mets at Atlanta, 7:35 EST TBS
Oliver Perez (L) vs. Chuck James (L)
Perez: 1-10 TSR Away first half of the season
James: Atl 13-3 Over as a home underdog of +100 to +125

Pittsburgh at St. Louis, 8:10 EST
Ian Snell (R) vs. Kip Wells (R)
Snell: 21-10 TSR in night games
Wells: 1-8 TSR in all starts

Colorado at Arizona, 9:40 EST
Jeff Francis (L) vs. Doug Davis (L)
Francis: 8-2 Under in May
Davis: 8-0 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -125

Chicago Cubs at San Diego, 10:05 EST WGN
Ted Lilly (L) vs. David Wells (L)
Lilly: 3-0 TSR, 2.66 ERA in road starts
Wells: SD 30-14 Under vs. NL Central

Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Chris Capuano (L) vs. Brad Penny (R)
Capuano: Mil 6-2 Over at LA Dodgers
Penny: 18-4 Over in home starts

Houston at San Francisco, 10:15 EST
Matt Albers (R) vs. Barry Zito (L)
Albers: Hou 17-6 Under as a road underdog of +125 to +150
Zito: 21-4 TSR as a favorite of -150 or more


American League

Minnesota at Texas, 2:05 EST
Boof Bonser (R) vs. Robinson Tejeda (R)
Bonser: 11-2 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125
Tejeda: Tex 9-23 when the total is 8.5 to 10

LA Angels at Detroit, 7:05 EST
Bartolo Colon (R) vs. Chad Durbin (R)
Colon: 11-0 TSR Away with a money line of -100 to -150
Durbin: Det 11-2 Over at home vs. righties

Boston at NY Yankees, 7:05 EST ESPN
Curt Schilling (R) vs. Andy Pettitte (L)
Schilling: 21-5 TSR 1st half of the season
Pettitte: NYY 16-3 Under in May

Toronto at Baltimore, 7:05 EST
Dustin McGowan (R) vs. Steve Trachsel (R)
McGowan: 2-6 TSR in road starts
Trachsel: 11-1 Over at home 1st half of season

Seattle at Tampa Bay, 7:10 EST
Miguel Batista (R) vs. Cassey Fossum (L)
Batista: 10-4 TSR as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Fossum: 9-1 Over working on 5 or 6 days rest

Cleveland at Kansas City, 8:10 EST
Cliff Lee (L) vs. Scott Elarton (R)
Lee: Cle 13-2 as a favorite of -150 or more
Elarton: KC 15-47 vs. left-handers

Oakland at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 EST
Chad Gaudin (R) vs. Jon Garland (R)
Gaudin: 3-0 TSR, 3.37 ERA L3 starts
Garland: 3-0 TSR, 2.02 ERA L3 starts

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB
Betting on Baseball’s Best Over Teams


Whether it is baseball, football, basketball or whatever sport, people love to see large numbers. If Detroit and San Antonio are in NBA Finals, Sleep-Fest 2007. Every red blooded American loves to see scoring. Soccer can’t make it, not enough scoring, hockey is improving, but it’s not our game. No baseball is an American game and while many other sports have structured time limits and prescribed sizes on the field of play, not this sport. In baseball you never run out of time, just the 27 outs to score runs. Building a team that can score runs, drives people to the park and smart totals players reap the rewards of betting on them.

The Los Angeles Dodgers rank only 19th in runs scored in major league baseball and are 6th in runs allowed. This does not mean that playing them Over is a bad idea, in fact, it a wonderful wager with L.A. 26-19-1 Over, among the best in baseball. The line-up has Russell Martin leading in batting average, Nomar Garciaparra with 26 runs batted in and Jeff Kent the leading home run hitter at just five, yet they are prone to outbursts. Dodger Stadium has long been thought of as a pitchers paradise, yet information has surfaced that this is no longer true. In Baseball Prospectus 2007 annual, the venerable old ballpark is now considered a neutral ball yard for hitters. With so many of the oddsmakers totals reflecting low numbers, the Boys in Blue are 15-6 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. In addition, they are 19-14-1 Over playing at night.

One ball club earning serious pub is the Milwaukee Brewers, as they have jumped off to early quarter poll lead in the National League Central. The last time Milwaukee was this good a Bush was president, our current one’s father. The Brewers are 26-19-1 Over, led by a robust offense that is doing the job, ranking 3rd in runs scored in the senior circuit. Shortstop J.J. Hardy has put his injury riddled past behind him and is now showing the promise so many expected. He leads the Brew Crew in BA, RBI’s and dingers and is the biggest reason why they are second in baseball in home runs. Milwaukee is 16-8 Over at Miller Park and has killed division teams with a 17-8 record and has played Over just as often. In games decided by four or more runs, Milwaukee’s best is 10-8, but are unimaginable 15-3 Over.

Tampa Bay may finish last again in money bags division, the AL East, however now at least there is a reason to go see the D-Rays. Tampa has some of the finest young talent in the game with players like B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young. While they collectively have not been able to harness all their talents just yet, they are second in the American League in home runs. The Devil Rays are 23-17-4 Over having these young players in the everyday line. Unfortunately after pitchers Scott Kazmir and James Shields, the rest of the pitching staff could generously be described as pathetic. Opposing teams are scoring 6, that is SIX runs a game against Tampa Bay, easily the worst in the league. Manager Joe Maddon doesn’t wear the black horn-rimmed glasses because he wants to, he just chooses to so because he doesn’t want to look at any relief pitcher in the eyes when handing him the ball. The D-Rays have enjoyed much of there success against the right-handed pitchers with 18-11-3 Over mark. Close games are not the Tampa Bay way, however games ending in scores by two or more runs has them 19-8-4 Over the posted total.

Cleveland has the appearance of team that is ready for dog fight (sorry Mike Vick) in the Central Division. The Indians are the top scoring team in baseball, just ahead of division foe Detroit. The Indians line-up is deep with no real easy outs and DH Travis Hafner hasn’t even started to hit just yet with eight home runs and 29 runs batted in. The Tribe is 23-17-3 Over in 2007, with alarming 17-4 straight up record at Jacobs Field. Oddsmakers like those at Sportsbook.com have taken that into consideration and Cleveland is just 11-10 Over at home. The majority of the damage has come on the road, where they are 12-6-2 Over. Right-handed starters have bared the brunt of the offense with the Indians 19-11-1 Over. Opposing teams better have bullpen in order when facing this Tribe who is 11-4 Over vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities this season.

In the weeks ahead, cash in on these and other teams who favor the Total a certain way and fill up those wagering accounts expertly.