Milwaukee and Los Angeles

[Spearit]

This is one of those games that popped up quickly in my search for a play this evening. The Under was golden in the Yanks win last night but was chilling in the 8th inning as Chado pointed out.

As usual, I like to zero in on the pitchers and then the bull pens to help out and then let the other pieces fall into place. First, lets look at the pitchers and team trends. Lets also look at the umpire and how he has performed. Then as I place more info - make a determination.

As of now- the Over looks to be very good. But I have seen these go the opposite way at times too so more needs to be looked at!


Milwaukee
Over is 5-0-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1-2 in Brewers last 8 vs. National League West.
Over is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 games following a win.
Over is 21-8-2 in Brewers last 31 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 23-9-2 in Brewers last 34 games as a favorite.
Over is 10-4 in Brewers last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 10-4 in Brewers last 14 games as a road favorite.



Over is 7-0-1 in Sheets' last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 7-1 in Sheets' last 8 starts overall.
Over is 7-1 in Sheets' last 8 starts on Grass.
Over is 7-1-2 in Sheets' last 10 starts as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Sheets' last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 4-1 in Sheets' last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 4-1-1 in Sheets' last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Sheets' last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Now for these unders in previous years!
Under is 15-6 in Brewers last 21 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 13-4-1 in Sheets' last 18 starts as a road underdog.
Under is 16-5-1 in Sheets' last 22 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 22-8-3 in Sheets' last 33 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 22-8-4 in Sheets' last 34 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 19-7-2 in Sheets' last 28 starts as an underdog.
Under is 20-8-1 in Sheets' last 29 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 7-3-3 in Sheets' last 13 starts vs. National League West.
Under is 35-17-3 in Sheets' last 55 starts vs. a team with a winning record.


LA Dodgers
Over is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-0 in Dodgers last 7 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 7-1-1 in Dodgers last 9 overall.
Over is 7-1-1 in Dodgers last 9 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 7-1-1 in Dodgers last 9 on Grass.
Over is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1-1 in Dodgers last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 22-8-1 in Dodgers last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Over is 53-22-2 in Dodgers last 77 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 38-17-1 in Dodgers last 56 games a home underdog.
Over is 49-22-1 in Dodgers last 72 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 70-32-2 in Dodgers last 104 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 43-20-2 in Dodgers last 65 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 64-30-2 in Dodgers last 96 home games.
Over is 55-27-1 in Dodgers last 83 games as a home favorite.
Over is 65-32-4 in Dodgers last 101 vs. National League Central.
Under is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Wolf's last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Wolf's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1 in Wolf's last 8 starts overall.
Over is 7-1 in Wolf's last 8 starts on Grass.
Over is 6-1 in Wolf's last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 5-1 in Wolf's last 6 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 5-1 in Wolf's last 6 home starts.
Over is 5-1 in Wolf's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Head to HeadOver is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Over is 10-3-3 in the last 16 meetings.
Brewers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Brewers are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.


Umpire Trends - Sam HolbrookHome team is 7-0 in Holbrook's last 7 games behind home plate.
Over is 6-1 in Holbrook's last 7 games behind home plate.
Over is 4-1 in Holbrook's last 5 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.Road team is 4-1 in Holbrook's last 5 Tuesday games behind home plate.

[BigWeiner]

One of my plays as well

[Spearit]

- Now lets look at anothers view on this game.

Milwaukee and over

Overview: Two National League Division leaders collide for the Game Two of a three game set. Milwaukee won the opener 9-5 as they embark on a six game Southern Cal West Coast swing. The Brewers are just 3-6 in last nine games as the lumber went into cold storage. Signs are appearing they are breaking out of slump with 25 hits in last two games and 15 runs posted on the board. Los Angeles has lost four straight and has seen its lead in the West Division dwindle to a mere half game. The Dodgers lack the big bopper in the middle of the line-up and when a number of players go into minor slumps, they lack the capacity to generate many three run homers to get them out. Los Angeles has scored 2.6 runs a game in last five losses and are 3-11 against the money line in home games after three or more consecutive losses.

Why Brewers cover – The Brewers will start Ben Sheets who is arguably off his best outing of the season. He surrendered two runs on five hits in 7 2/3 innings as the Brewers won in Philadelphia and notched a season-high eight strikeouts. Sheets has worked on his mechanics the last month and believes he has found a way to create more bite on the curve ball. The righthander is 4-2 with a 3.86 ERA and Milwaukee has won his last four starts. The Brew Crew is 11-2 in last 13 tries after scoring five or more runs. Milwaukee is 8-4 in the second game of series in 2007 and 19-9 +7.6 units as a favorite.

Why Dodgers cover – Los Angeles turns to Randy Wolf to send skid and get back on the winning beam. Wolf has been strong in May with 2-0 record, having not allowed more then two earned runs in three starts. When tabulated, an outstanding 1.56 ERA is what he’s produced and a phenomenal strikeout to walk ratio of better then 8 to 1. The lefty is 53-35 (+26.0 Units) against the ML vs. teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) In spite of the loss last night, the Dodgers are still 18-5 in home games in May games over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is 19-40 in road games after one or more consecutive Overs.

Top Totals Trends – Ben Sheets and the Brewers are 8-1 OVER in all games this season with the average score being 10.7 RPG. Los Angeles is 11-2 OVER against NL Central opponents this season.

Pick- This contest has exceptional parlay potential to build revenue. The Brewers Sheets has been an Over pitcher, which of course means he allows some runs. He is 3-10 in night games over the last two seasons. (Brewers Record) Milwaukee is dismal 8-25 in road games after two straight games where they committed no errors. The series opener was the first home loss in May (7-1) for the Dodgers. The other part of the parlay involves playing the total on the Over. The Brew Crew is 10-2 OVER vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season and L.A. is 18-3 OVER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.

[Chado1]

BOL tonight Spear and thanks for the quality info!!!

[SACPAC]

Good Luck Spear..

[Kaptain]

Spearit-----are you saying the plays are Milwaukee and OVER.........kapt

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Spearit!

[Spearit]

Do not jump the gun -folks!!!!

Now having said all of this- I believe these trends may have a problem.
I site the last games pitched by these two pitchers as my source.
Sheets has 2-3-2-2 ER in his last 4 games 25+ innings
Wolf is 2-0-1 ER in 17 innings.
Los Angeles is missing the heart of its batting order. They have given up 7 runs by their bull pen in the last 3 games.
Milwaukee has given up only 2 runs by the bull pen in its last 4 games.

My play is on Milwaukee.
The Total is on the first 5 innings-Under 4!!!!
I also lean toward Over 7.5 for the game
Good Luck on how you read this!
The purpose is to expose all fronts to the play!!
How do you see it?

[tech fan]

gl today spearit

[Chado1]

Do not jump the gun -folks!!!!

Now having said all of this- I believe these trends may have a problem.
I site the last games pitched by these two pitchers as my source.
Sheets has 2-3-2-2 ER in his last 4 games 25+ innings
Wolf is 2-0-1 ER in 17 innings.
Los Angeles is missing the heart of its batting order. They have given up 7 runs by their bull pen in the last 3 games.
Milwaukee has given up only 2 runs by the bull pen in its last 4 games.

My play is on Milwaukee.
The Total is on the first 5 innings-Under 4!!!!
I also lean toward Over 7.5 for the game
Good Luck on how you read this!
The purpose is to expose all fronts to the play!!
How do you see it?

Love the Brewers tonight....Sheets owns the Dodgers...I will be posting them in a bit myself...LAD wont score more than 2 runs on Sheets IMO

[Spearit]

Milwaukee in its last 5 have hit 2.37 against left handers and LA has hit 2.17 against right handers.

[jt4545]

good luck Big " S "

[thaikarate1]

GL Spear

[PhilJr]

I hope your "lean" on the over is the right call tonight

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Spearit