Monday Trends and Indexes 05/14

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel


Buffalo at Ottawa
The Sabres are reeling after dropping the first two games of the series at home, including a 4-3 double-overtime defeat in Game Two. The top seed is playing like anything but that right now as Buffalo has dropped four of its last six, while allowing 13 goals in the past three games. Instead it is Ottawa that has dominated the postseason with a 10-2 record and the three top scorers in Dany Heatley (17 points), Jason Spezza (17) and Daniel Alfredsson (14). Returning home tonight for Game Three, the Senators look like a good pick straight up in this one according to Dunkel, which has Ottawa favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa. Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, MAY 14

Game 1-2: Buffalo at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.807; Ottawa 14.468
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under

[pm530]

Baseball – Hot Lines

MLB
Hot Lines


Monday, May 14

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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

This is one of those games that can make you argue with yourself for hours. No team has earned more cake than the Brewers this season, but then again, you’re getting a great price on the Phillies and their hottest starter at home.

That’s when you have to turn to the stats – and the numbers say the Phillies win today.

First of all, Jamie Moyer must have had his left arm replaced with a bionic replacement in the offseason because he has been darn near perfect. His team has won five of his seven starts and they probably should have won all of them, given that he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start this season. More importantly, he’s gone deep every time and kept Philly’s relievers in the bullpen where they belong. Add to that Milwaukee’s .197 batting average on the road against lefties and you have to like the Phillies’ chances.

Pick: Phillies -116



Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox

No team is hotter than the Red Sox after they’ve won eight of their last 10, but it’s not like they’re playing the Kansas City Royals here. The Tigers are only two games behind Boston in the AL standings and they have yet to lose a series on the road this year.

Nate Robertson hasn’t gotten a ton of wins, but his 3.43 ERA is a heck of a lot better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s 4.80. There are some numbers on Boston’s stat sheet that'll make you a little nervous (such as a 2.34 bullpen ERA and .371 batting average against lefties at Fenway) but for the price, take a chance with a strong Detroit club.

Pick: Tigers +142



Florida Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates

No matter how bad the Pirates’ hitting has been this year, you have to give them a long look any time Tom Gorzelanny in on the mound. This kid has a good fastball and a nasty slider, which he’s used to frustrate dangerous lineups like Chicago and Milwaukee and keep them off the scoreboard. His 2.72 ERA puts him among some elite company in the NL and if you’re going to give the Pirates bargain prices at home in Gorzelanny’s starts, bettors have to take advantage.

You can’t discount the ability of Dontrelle Willis making the start for the Marlins, but he’ll face a Pirates lineup that finally has a little confidence after a 13-2 win over Atlanta yesterday. With the exception of the starting pitcher, every batter in the Pittsburgh starting lineup got a hit in the win, which could do wonders for these guys after the struggles they've been going through.

Pick: Pirates -113

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[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Monday, May 14th

National League

Atlanta at Washington, 7:05 ET
John Smoltz (R) vs. Jason Bergmann (R)
Smoltz: 17-1 TSR as a road favorite of -175 or higher
Bergmann: 1-6 TSR as an underdog of +150 or higher

Florida at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Dontrelle Willis (L) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (L)
Willis: 12-2 Under as a road underdog
Gorzelanny: Pittsburgh 13-34 SU after scoring 8+ runs

Milwaukee at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Dave Bush (R) vs. Jamie Moyer (L)
Bush: Milwaukee 10-2 SU off a loss
Moyer: Philadelphia 5-14 SU with line of +125 to -125

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, 7:10 ET ESPN
Jason Marquis (R) vs. Tom Glavine (L)
Marquis: Cubs 23-43 SU after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Glavine: 20-5 TSR in the first half of the season

Cincinnati at San Diego, 10:05 ET
Matt Belisle (R) vs. Greg Maddux (R)
Belisle: Cincinnati 6-17 SU off an Over
Maddux: 18-7 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -150

St. Louis at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Bradley Thompson (R) vs. Brett Tomko (R)
Thompson: St. Louis 14-4 Under in night games
Tomko: Dodgers 27-12 SU off 3+ wins


American League

LA Angels at Texas, 2:05 ET
Jered Weaver (R) vs. Kevin Millwood (R)
Weaver: Angels 15-5 Under as a favorite of -150 or less
Millwood: Texas 5-23 SU as a home underdog

Detroit at Boston, 7:05 ET
Nate Robertson (L) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Robertson: Detroit 14-3 Under off a division loss by 6+ runs
Matsuzaka: Boston 17-5 SU off BB games without a home run

Baltimore at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Erik Bedard (L) vs. Tomo Ohka (R)
Bedard: Baltimore 41-18 SU as a favorite
Ohka: Toronto 2-10 SU in May

Kansas City at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Gil Meche (R) vs. Dan Haren (R)
Meche: Kansas City 5-26 SU on Mondays
Haren: Oakland 31-16 SU after scoring 9+ runs

.

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet


Monday, May 14th


Eastern Conference Playoffs
Semifinals, Game Four
Cleveland Leads, 2-1
TV: TNT
Cleveland at New Jersey, 7:05 EST

Cleveland:
11-24 ATS after scoring 85 points or less
26-12 Under revenging a road loss by 10+ points

New Jersey:
13-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points
18-9 Under off a home win


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Western Conference Playoffs
Semifinals, Game Four
San Antonio Leads, 2-1
TV: TNT
Phoenix at San Antonio, 9:35 EST

Phoenix:
7-0 ATS away revenging a road loss
11-3 ATS off a road loss

San Antonio:
4-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less
4-14 ATS off ATS wins in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet


Monday, May 14th


Eastern Conference Playoffs
Finals, Game Three
Ottawa Leads, 2-0
TV: VER
Buffalo at Ottawa, 7:05 EST

Buffalo:
7-0 SU away off BB games allowing 4+ goals
23-9 SU off BB division games

Ottawa:
10-2 Under at home off BB division wins
8-1 Under at home off a division win by 4+ goals

[Udog]

MLB
Write-up


Monday, May 14


Hot Pitchers
-- Smoltz is 3-0, 1.71 in his last three starts.
-- Gorzelanny is 3-2, 2.61 in his last six starts.
-- Phillies are 4-1 in last five Moyer starts (3-1, 2.80).
-- Marquis is 5-0, 1.23 in his last five starts. Mets won five of the last six Glavine starts (3-0, 3.16).
-- Belisle is 2-0, 1.20 in his last two starts. Maddux is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts.
-- Thompson allowed one run in five IP in his first '07 start, vs Colorado, game Cardinals later won 4-1.


-- Weaver is 1-1, 2.55 in his last three starts.
-- Red Sox won last four Matsuzaka starts, scoring 35 runs.
-- Orioles won six of Bedard's last seven starts.
-- Royals won last three Meche starts (2-0, 2.32). Haren has 2.10 RA in his last four starts; A's are 4-1 in his last five outings.

Cold Pitchers
-- Nationals lost last four Bergmann starts (0-2, 3.25), outscored by 16-8 margin.
-- Willis has 7.45 RA in last five starts, but Florida is 6-2 in his starts this season.
-- Bush has 7.11 RA in his last three starts.
-- Tomko is 1-3, 5.70 in his last four starts.

-- Millwood comes off DL (hamstring) to start; he is 0-2, 8.10 in his last three outings.
-- Robertson has 5.47 RA in last four starts; Tigers lost four of his last five outings.
-- Ohka is 2-4, 6.07 in his last six starts.

Totals
-- Under is 6-2 in Smoltz starts this season.
-- Over is 7-1 in Willis starts this season.
-- Five of last six Moyer starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-2 in Marquis starts this season.
-- Over is 4-1 in last five Belisle starts, 1-6 in Maddux starts.
-- Last three Tomko starts stayed under the total.

-- Under is 4-1 in Weaver starts for Anaheim.
-- Last four Matsuzaka starts all went over the total.
-- Three of four Bedard road starts went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in Haren starts.


Hot Teams
-- Braves won five of their last six games. Nationals just swept a three-game series from Florida, outscoring them 19-7.
-- Brewers are 11-3 in last fourteen games, 4-1 in last five series openers on road.
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games. Mets won four of last five games.
-- Phillies won three of their last four games.
-- Padres won four of their last five home games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last five games.

-- Angels won four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last eleven games. Tigers are 11-2 in their last thirteen games.
-- A's are 6-3 in last nine games, going WLW last three series.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost three in row, seven of last nine games. Pirates are 2-6 in their last eight home games.
-- Reds lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Cardinals lost eight of last eleven road games.


-- Rangers are 4-6 in last ten home games.
-- Orioles lost last two games, allowing 19 runs; they blew a 5-0 lead in ninth inning yesterday. Toronto is 4-8 in last 12 at home.
-- Royals lost seven of their last nine games.

[Dennis14072]

Thanks Guys, good luck tonight!

[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Monday, May 14

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CHICAGO (8 - 1) at DALLAS (9 - 1) - 5/14/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
DALLAS is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NEW YORK (2 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 5) - 5/14/2007, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


Monday, May 14

Chicago (8-1) @ Dallas (9-1)-- Two best teams in AFL meet; Rush is 3-0 since its bye, winning by 21,11,6 points. Dallas hasn't had a bye yet; they scored 66 ppg in last three weeks; they're 5-0 in its home games, winning by 19,4,2,10,7 points (2-3 as home favorite). Chicago is underdog for first time this season; they won three in row on road, by 8,12,21, after losing opener 54-41 at Rampage.


New York (2-7) @ Philadelphia (4-5)-- Soul lost last five games in row, after 4-0 start, scoring 39 ppg during skid- they averaged 67 ppg during 4-0 start- they miss Graziani at QB. Dragons lost five of last six games; they were last team to lose to Philly, 65-60 back in Week 5 (+12), turning ball over five times. Last four New York games stayed under total, as did four of last five Philly games.

[pm530]

Hockey – Tips & Trends

NHL
Tips and trends


Monday, May 14

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Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators (7 PM ET)
Ottawa has won the first two games of a series for the first time in franchise history and is 41-9-8 since December 23rd, including an NHL-best 10-2 this postseason. BIG EDGE: SENATORS
The top-seeded Sabres have lost four of six and are 8-5 overall this postseason and allowed 13 goals in their past three games. SLIGHT EDGE: SABRES & OVER
The Senators are 6-1 in their last seven games playing on one days rest.
The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

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