NFL & NCAA CONFIRMED PLAYS 8/27-9/1 (Update #1)

[Sports Guru]

HERE WE GO...THE START OF THE SEASON. I AM STILL GOING TO PLAY A FEW GAMES IN THE PRESEASON BUT ONLY FOR MAYBE A TOKEN AMOUNT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT PEOPLE MAY ARGUE, IT IS MY OPINION THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK WITH ANY CERTAINLY A SPREAD IN AN NFL PRESEASON GAME. THERE ARE SIMPLY TO MANY INTANGIBLES, HOW LONG WILL THE PLAYERS PLAY, THE QB, THE FACT THE GAMES MEANS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING EXCEPT FOR US WHO BET IT, ECT...ECT. SO ALL PRESEASON PLAYS WILL BE OPINION PLAYS. AS FOR THE OTHER RATED PLAYS, I PLAY ALL RATED GAMES AT $100/UNIT SO BET ACCORDINGLY, (IE REDUCED THE UNITS IF YOU PLAY A SMALLER AMOUNT. AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY!

IF YOUR INTERESTED IN GETTING A FULL SEASON OF MY PLAYS AND THE NEWSLETTERS SHOOT ME AN EMAIL [email protected]

8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* STRONG PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* STRONG SELECTION
3* PROBABLE COVER
2* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
1* ALMOST AN OPINION SELECTION
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN.

Summary of Plays:
(1) MARYLAND -8

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MARYLAND (0 - 0) at N ILLINOIS (0 - 0)
Week 1 Thursday, 8/28/2003 7:30 PM
vs
125 MARYLAND -8
126 N ILLINOIS

Detailed Analysis

The Maryland Terrapins are a strong 7-2 straight up and against the spread on the road the last two years. Maryland has 17 starters back to a team that outscored opponents by a 32-17 average with perfect balance: 202 yards rushing/196 yards passing per game. QB Scott O’Brien is injured (strained groin muscle) and is questionable for this game, with Orlando Evans the possible replacement. The Terrapins like to run the ball, and so do the Northern Illinois Huskies. Maryland's running game is strong behind Chris Downs (1,113 yards) and Bruce Perry, though Perry has not been 100% lately and status uncertain. Northern Illinois has a remarkable RB in Michael Turner (1,915 yards, 19 TDs and 5.7 yards per carry). N. Illinois went 8-4 SU and a sizzling 9-2 ATS and the offense looks strong again. N. Illinois averaged 31 points, 200 yds rushing and 175 yds passing per game in 2002. Defense is another issue and they gave up a whopping 24.8 ppg and 386 total yards. The ‘D’ was poor against the run (131 yds rushing) pass (255 yds passing allowed). The primary trouble for the Huskies is the Terrapins are bigger, faster, and stronger on both sides of the ball. The Terrapins O-line outweighs the opposing line by almost 40 lbs per man. In addition Maryland operates a 3-4 defensive set which is specifically designed to stop the run. The Terrapins will keep it on the ground and roll over the smaller stop unit to a double digit victory. Based on today's report, this should be a high scoring game, so if they post a number, also bet the over for a small amount.

Projected Score: Maryland 44, No Illinois 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MARYLAND -8

[Sports Guru]

Subject: NFL & NCAA CONFIRMED PLAYS 8/27-9/1 (Update #4)

HERE WE GO...THE START OF THE SEASON. I AM STILL GOING TO PLAY A FEW GAMES IN THE PRESEASON BUT ONLY FOR MAYBE A TOKEN AMOUNT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT PEOPLE MAY ARGUE, IT IS MY OPINION THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK WITH ANY CERTAINLY A SPREAD IN AN NFL PRESEASON GAME. THERE ARE SIMPLY TO MANY INTANGIBLES, HOW LONG WILL THE PLAYERS PLAY, THE QB, THE FACT THE GAMES MEANS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING EXCEPT FOR US WHO BET IT, ECT...ECT. SO ALL PRESEASON PLAYS WILL BE OPINION PLAYS. AS FOR THE OTHER RATED PLAYS, I PLAY ALL RATED GAMES AT $100/UNIT SO BET ACCORDINGLY, (IE REDUCED THE UNITS IF YOU PLAY A SMALLER AMOUNT. AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY!

IF YOUR INTERESTED IN GETTING A FULL SEASON OF MY PLATS AND THE NEWSLETTERS SHOOT ME AN EMAIL [email protected]

8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* STRONG PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* STRONG SELECTION
3* PROBABLE COVER
2* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
1* ALMOST AN OPINION SELECTION
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN.

Season Record: College 1-1 50% (-.60)
Season Record: NFL Regular Season 0-0

Summary of Plays:
(2) USC/AUBURN UNDER 45.5
(2) COLORADO STATE -1.5
(1) UTEP +22 Probable Upgrade

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USC (0 - 0) at AUBURN (0 - 0)
Week 1 Saturday, 8/30/2003 6:00 PM
vs
171 USC 45.5
172 AUBURN -3.5

Detailed Analysis

An intriguing matchup that pits two stellar teams - USC, the balanced offense/defense specialists and last year's Pac-10 Conference Champs, against the Tigers and their RB trio of Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams and Tre Smith, making arguably the best combo in the nation (2,207 rushing yards last season). Both teams were prolific scorers last season (USC averaged 35.6 ppg, Auburn 31.3), and the defenses a virtual toss-up (USC 18.6 points allowed pg avg, Auburn 18.5). The Trojans managed to beat the Tigers last year at home, 24-17, and will look to do the same again this year on the road. Pete Carroll has been coach of the Trojans the past two seasons, and in that time, his team has gone 8-3 against the spread on the road. This will be a great game to watch but tough one to pick ATS. The key here is an inexperienced signal caller in a hostile environment. HC Carroll will play it close to the vest in an attempt to make it a fourth quarter game. Ergo this one has the feel of a tough field position opener. Tough place to win and being opening week, tend to believe this one will be a defensive battle. Low scoring game, take the under.

Projected Score: Auburn 16, USC 13
PLAY 2* UNITS ON USC/AUBURN UNDER THE TOTAL 45.5

COLORADO (0 - 0) vs. COLORADO ST (0 - 0)
Week 1 Saturday, 8/30/2003 7:45 PM
Denver, CO
vs
183 COLORADO Pick 48.5
184 COLORADO ST -2

Detailed Analysis

The annual grudge match at Invesco is Saturday night's ESPN tilt. The Rams have won 3 of the last 4 S/U, and on paper -- look to be the better team in late August. The best team has not always won this heated rivalry, however. Fueling the fire were the words of Colorado State WR Eric Hill who said, "We've devloped confidence here, and CU is not as good as they think they are". CU may be a bit overrated this year with just 9 returning starters and a walk-on, Joel Klatt, starting at QB. Colorado Head Coach Barnett says watching his young, rebuilt offense (only 3 starters back) in recent scrimmage was "very sobering." And seriously doubt identity-seeking Buff attack will come very close to "finding itself" vs. a veteran, active CSU defense (7 starters return) that limited a more experienced and dangerous Colorado arsenal to just 14 points year ago. Meanwhile, the Rams return 15 starters and QB Brad Van Pelt is back for his senior season. Making this year's tilt even more intriguing is the fact that RB Marcus Houston was declared eligible for the Rams after spending a couple of seasons in the Buffalo backfield. We feel even with CU's lack of experience on the offensive line, the rivalry itself will keep this one close. Barnett has not done well in openers, (0-4, S/U & ATS), but committed 20-minutes each day in spring practice to this very game! The Rams defensive mastermind Head Coach Lubick has installed some special blitz packages-featuring head-hunting, 6-2, 235 sr. LB Wood (7 sacks LY), to seriously disrupt Buffs green soph QB Klatt operating behind an undeveloped offensive front (only 1 starter back). On other hand, fully expect CSU's mobile, tough-minded sr. QB Van Pelt (74 YR in LY's meeting!), productive sr. WR Pittman (60 catches LY), and deep stable of RBs to move chains vs. non-dominating CU defense that gave up an unimpressive 4.3 ypc & 23 ppg year ago. Also, Rams own much more reliable PK in Babcock, who booted 24 of 32 LY. The Rams make it 4 out of 5 S/U in great matchup.

Projected Score: Colorado State 28, Colorado 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON COLORADO STATE -1.5

UTEP (0 - 0) at ARIZONA (0 - 0)
Week 1 Saturday, 8/30/2003 10:00 PM
vs
193 UTEP
194 ARIZONA -22

Detailed Analysis

In a match up between the worst the WAC and Pac 10 have to offer, there's no surprise that the Pac 10 team is the chalk here. But laying more than three touchdowns with a squad that's covered just two home games as a favorite over the last FOUR years is a rather dicey decision, even vs. as woeful a team as UTEP. Arizona head coach John Mackovic knows a thing or two about implementing quick-striking offenses but last season his attack unit only scored an AVERAGE of 12 points per game over their last eight contests. And with quarterback Jason Johnson, who threw for over 3,300 yards in 2002, gone, don't expect much of an improvement. The Miners won't win this game, but with an offensive line that looks pretty solid, expect them to generate between 10 and 14 points which should be more than enough for them to cover this huge number.

Projected Score: Arizona 28, UTEP 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UIVERSITY TEXAS EL PASO +22
PROBABLE UPGRADE