Announcement

**Spearit** · 05-03-2007, 01:36 PM

But why do that when Saturday's 133rd edition of America's greatest race gives us two brilliant colts in Curlin and Street Sense who will square off at Churchill Downs, not only against each other, but against long-standing ideas about where and when a horse needs to run to have him ready for 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday of his 3-year-old year.

Right behind this pair are a host of talented runners, including five trained by Todd Pletcher, the Eclipse Award-winning conditioner still looking for his first Derby score. Many of them also are bucking old trends or looking to join new ones as they complete the myriad of routes that have brought them to Louisville.

Owners have reacted predictably, lining up to ensure that Churchill Downs' cut-off at 20 starters means exactly that number will run. For those with few horses in training, being a major player on the sport's biggest stage, surrounded by an ocean of 150,000 screaming fans and with a stake in what's rightly called "the most exciting two minutes in sports" is too much to resist. And for the movers and shakers in the sport's breeding industry, the wealth connected to a Derby winner is overpowering as well.

Soon, the desire to have a legitimate "Derby horse" gives way to desiring to have a horse in the Derby, regardless of how good his chances are, with the result being the annual mayhem of the first run past the stands. So let's give kudos to the connections of Cobalt Blue, Birdbirdistheword and Xchanger, three horses that qualified to run in the Derby but will not because, in their trainers' eyes, they had no chance to win.

Here is the field by post position with each horse's lifetime record (Starts-1st-2nd-3rd), jockey and morning-line odds:

1. Sedgefield 8-2-3-0 Julien Leparoux 50-1
If a horse making his first-ever start on a conventional dirt track is what you seek in the Derby, look no further. Most of his graded earnings came from his Polytrack races and the rest were garnered on the grass, making his Churchill Downs prospects most inscrutable. Sire Smart Strike is also Curlin's daddy, but this colt fits better in Friday's Crown Royal Turf.

Curlin is the morning line favorite, but history is not on his side. (Ed Reinke / FOXSports.com)

2. Curlin 3-3-0-0 Robby Albarado 7-2
He's the favorite despite the challenge of trying to win the Derby without a race at two, a feat last accomplished 125 years ago and the equivalent of leading a team to the NBA title in your first year out of high school. He's obviously loaded with talent, but the competition he's faced has been meager and his inside post means he'll have plenty of dirt and other horses to contend with. A tough road ahead of him but he may be the superstar that can pull it off.

3. Zanjero 8-2-2-3 Shaun Bridgmohan 30-1
Trainer Steve Asmussen's second starter and another with a win over the track, he had every chance to grab the Blue Grass after the rail opened wide but could not quicken sufficiently to get the job done. The son of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Cherokee Run tries hard every time and should pass a few down the lane but even his best effort may not be good enough to hit the board.

4. Storm in May 13-4-2-6 Juan Leyva 30-1
The stronger half of trainer Bill Kaplan's unlikely two-horse Derby contingent, he was second in the Arkansas Derby but, in fact, was just another horse left in Curlin's wake. Second-place money was enough to get him here though he's actually more at home on the turf. He's been off the board just once in 13 starts, a stat certain to change for the negative on Saturday.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy 11-2-2-2 Mark Guidry 50-1
A non-threatening sixth in the Florida Derby, this gelding made the cut after two defections earlier in the week and if he wins on Saturday it will be his first stakes victory. "It's a once-in-a-lifetime thing for the owners," said Kaplan, "but this horse has tremendous cardiovascular capability and the 1 1/4-mile distance will be perfect for him." Name your price.

6. Cowtown Cat 7-4-0-1 Fernando Jara 20-1
Another Pletcher runner and the costliest auction purchase in the race at $1.5 million, he took the path of least resistance to Louisville — the Gotham Stakes and Illinois Derby — after showing significant improvement in Florida. Though he won both with authority and has been training well since, the suspect opposition of those races make his record look gaudier than it is. Outsider.

7. Street Sense 7-3-2-2 Calvin Borel 4-1
The curse of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ and doubts surrounding the effectiveness of a two-race campaign are his potential stumbling blocks, but he has impressed everyone all year and his trainer remains supremely confident in light of a week of dazzling workouts. If a horse is ever to break the BC spell, it's one returning to the scene of his 10-length romp last October. Looks hard to deny.

Poll

8. Hard Spun 6-5-0-0 Mario Pino 15-1
Hails from Smarty Jones country and the plan was to follow that Derby hero's route to Louisville. It changed when this son of Danzig showed a marked dislike for Oaklawn Park but he regrouped over Turfway's Polytrack and has worked sensationally — maybe too well — since arriving at Churchill. Questions aplenty about this colt whose flashy record lacks a win against a quality field.

9. Liquidity 7-1-2-1 David Flores 30-1
A member of the Paul Reddam trio of contenders with trainer Doug O'Neill that was reduced by one when Notional broke down, his star was bright after a solid second in the Sham Stakes followed a similar effort in the Hollywood Futurity. But subsequent dull races in New Orleans and Arcadia have dropped him off the charts. O'Neill has always spoken highly of him but he still hasn't won a race since his career debut last fall.

10. Teuflesberg 15-4-1-2 Stewart Elliott 30-1
He is the most experienced horse in the race with 15 starts — twice the average of the rest of the field — but was unable to hold the lead in the Blue Grass despite setting a tortoise-like pace. His speed will have him in the first flight down the backstretch but it is hard to see this non-winner of a graded race hanging on for even a small share.

11. Bwana Bull 9-4-2-1 Javier Castellano 50-1
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said the Santa Anita Derby would tell him what he needed to know about this colt but his owners evidently got a different message from his fifth-place finish. Ostensibly sent to Louisville for the Derby Trial, he was scratched after a poor draw. The good news is he ran a career-best 91 Beyer at Santa Anita; the bad news is that every other horse in the race has posted a higher number.

Wood Memorial winner Nobiz Like Shobiz expects big things at Churchill Downs. (Ed Betz / Associated Press)

12. Nobiz Like Shobiz 6-4-1-1 Cornelio Velasquez 8-1
It was love at first sight between Barclay Tagg and this colt and, despite his wandering ways in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, things have gone pretty much as planned for the pair. Funny Cide's trainer didn't come to Louisville until Wednesday — "I don't like to go down and mess around with that crowd," he said — but his consistent colt, who responded well to the addition of blinkers in the Wood Memorial, has the style and stamina to put him in position for a victory.

13. Sam P. 8-2-2-1 Ramon Dominguez 20-1
He is the least-fancied of the Pletcher quintet, having never won a stakes or a two-turn race but he had a very smart win over the Churchill strip as a 2-year-old, and his California form was encouraging. That may mean more about the quality of horses he faced there than his own improvement but it wouldn't surprise if he's in the first half-dozen finishers.

14. Scat Daddy 8-5-1-1 Edgar Prado 10-1
Thoughts that he was a miler were put to rest at Gulfstream Park with successive nine-furlong wins, including the Florida Derby in a time identical to Barbaro's last year — though over a slower track. He's coming into the race in the best shape of any of Pletcher's starters and, as was proven in 2006, a five-week break may be just the thing to give a horse the best chance of winning. Expect to hear his name called in the last furlong.

15. Tiago 4-2-0-1 Mike Smith 15-1
While others flaunt tradition, trainer John Shirreffs made sure to give this half-brother to 2004 Derby winner Giacomo a start before he turned three, saying, "I know all about the history." The colt looked like a poor relation until he stormed from behind to win the Santa Anita Derby and has held his form since. A horse with his pedigree and showing such marked improvement belongs on a few superfecta tickets at worse.

16. Circular Quay 7-4-2-0 John Velazquez 8-1
Another powerhouse from the Pletcher barn, his spring went astray almost from the get-go. Blocked by a fallen horse in the Risen Star, he rebounded in February's Louisiana Derby but was put on ice after his progress was deemed unsatisfactory. Pletcher, who has had great success with fresh horses, opted for the uncommon strategy of training him up to the Derby. It's a tall order but what a storybook way it would be to break his Derby drought.

Kentucky Derby field
In post position order from the rail out:
Sedgefield (Julien Leparoux, 50-1)

Curlin (Robby Albarado, 7-2)

Zanjero (Shaun Bridgmohan, 30-1)

Storm in May (Juan Leyva, 30-1)

Imawildandcrazyguy (M. Guidry, 50-1)

Cowtown Cat (Fernando Jara, 20-1)

Street Sense (Calvin Borel, 4-1)

Hard Spun (Mario Pino, 15-1)

Liquidity (David Flores, 30-1)

Teuflesberg (Stewart Elliott, 30-1)

Bwana Bull (Javier Castellano, 50-1)

Nobiz Like Shobiz (C. Velasquez, 8-1)

Sam P. (Ramon Dominguez, 20-1)

Scat Daddy (Edgar Prado, 10-1)

Tiago (Mike Smith, 15-1)

Circular Quay (John Velazquez, 8-1)

Stormello (Kent Desormeaux, 30-1)

Any Given Saturday (G. Gomez, 12-1)

Dominican (Rafael Bejarano, 20-1)

Great Hunter (Corey Nakatani, 15-1)

17. Stormello 9-3-1-2 Kent Desormeaux 30-1
This fiery colt looked like a coming star until he showed signs of strain following a taxing spring that saw him twice fly cross-country to run in Florida. He's had five weeks to recover, will be reunited with main man Desormeaux and may set a more sensible pace since this field is wanting for speedballs. Staying the distance could be a problem but it's easy to see him with the leaders turning for home and getting a check is definitely within reason.

18. Any Given Saturday 6-3-2-1 Garrett Gomez 12-1
Starting out on the Tampa Bay Downs path like Pletcher's ace Bluegrass Cat last year, this colt disappointed in the Wood. Said the trainer, "He took the worst of it being wide around the turns but he really didn't polish it off in the last sixteenth of a mile. He will have to step up a notch to get it done." The flashy colt has trained well since and, after his big performance over the track as a 2-year-old last November, still must be given a chance.

19. Dominican 7-3-0-2 Rafael Bejarano 20-1
Is it real or is it Polytrack? The gelding's dramatic improvement this spring normally would have fans gushing his praises but a cautious approach is warranted because everything of note has come on the all-weather. That closing burst in the Blue Grass was mighty impressive but he's been just ordinary on dirt and it takes a leap of faith to see him duplicating the feat on Saturday.

20. Great Hunter 9-3-4-1 Corey Nakatani 15-1
The second Reddam entry and thought to be best of all O'Neill's Derby horses this winter, he was jostled around in the stretch run of the Blue Grass — just his second race of the year — but jockey Corey Nakatani didn't bother to claim foul because, he said, "I was beat." He still has his backers but no closing punch after a snail's pace is not a harbinger of success.

The Crystal Ball

In any race, especially one as taxing as the Kentucky Derby, the question of pace is an issue and it appears that this Derby, unlike most recent ones, lacks a horse like Sinister Minister, Spanish Chestnut or Songandaprayer, one that will take everyone along at a demanding clip.
That doesn't mean the race is likely to be stolen by a front-runner, since the vast majority of contenders don't utilize that style, but that a slower pace — 1:11 versus 1:09 and change, for example — will make it hard on the deep closers, or horses who find themselves shuffled back in the pack, to catch up to the leaders.

This puts a premium on racing luck, as always, and the best way to assure luck is going your way is to employ tactical speed to stay away from the bad-luck spots on the racetrack. Horses with this commodity are Nobiz Like Shobiz, Street Sense, Scat Daddy and Any Given Saturday. Cowtown Cat and Hard Spun also may vie for position in the second flight though the latter likely will be up with Teuflesberg and Stormello at the front.

I look for Street Sense to emerge from that group and, in his first start on the ground he relished last October, to put to rest a few Derby canards in the process. Nobiz and Scat Daddy will be on my exacta box ticket and Stormello and Tiago will be used in wider exotics.

As for Curlin, it will be a wonderful thing for racing if yet another exciting, undefeated horse emerges from the Derby and advances to the Triple Crown. But the obstacles he faces seem quite a bit more formidable and, coupled with his post position, look like too much to overcome. Of course, that should get him right into the winner's circle since last year I narrowed it down to Barbaro and Bob and John and chose the latter.

**vinnyvegas** · 05-04-2007, 11:59 AM

Bumpage

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 12:56 AM

Thanx Vinnie for bumpage

This is the 133rd running of The $2,000,000 Grade I Kentucky Derby.

#1 - SEDGEFIELD: Turf and Polytrack seem to be his game.

#2 - CURLIN: Is he good enough to overcome the inexperience?

#3 - ZANJERO: Definitely not as good as the best ones.

#4 - STORM IN MAY: Calder shipper seems miscast.

#5 - IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY: Will need a career best effort for a small share.

#6 - COWTOWN CAT: Nice colt is at the top of the "B" class.

#7 - STREET SENSE: If the rail is open, look out!

#8 - HARD SPUN: Recent 5-furlong drill most certainly can't help.

#9 - LIQUIDITY: Californian is overmatched in here.

#10 - TEUFLESBERG: Has already had 15 starts. Look elsewhere.

#11 - BWANA BULL: King of the Northern California sophomores is up against it.

#12 - NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ: Enigmatic colt must "get his act" together.

#13 - SAM P.: Removes blinkers for toughest test to date.

#14 - SCAT DADDY: Honest colt is getting good at the right time.

#15 - TIAGO: Don't expect lightning to strike twice.

#16 - CIRCULAR QUAY: Great fresh runner returns from an 8-week hiatus today.

#17 - STORMELLO: Multiple cross-country travels have taken a toll on him.

#18 - ANY GIVEN SATURDAY: Much better than his last. Not impossible.

#19 - DOMINICAN: Does have some familiarity with Churchill Downs.

#20 - GREAT HUNTER: I've always believed he's a closing sprinter. Pass

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:03 AM

Are we Looking at a Sloppy Track Tomorrow ?
The local weather forecast is calling for rain right through tomorrow, and that means a sloppy track is likely for the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby . I guess it’s time to start looking for the mudders in the field.

Surprisingly, the Derby starters don't have much off-track form to judge. Four horses in the field have won on a wet track: Bwana Bull, Hard Spun, Teuflesberg and Scat Daddy. Street Sense finished third last year in his only try over a wet track at Arlington. Curlin is untested over a wet surface

The Tomlinson mud figures, published in Daily Racing Form, are a good way to predict a horse’s likely prowess on wet surface based on breeding. The higher the number, the better. Any Given Saturday and Cowtown Cat, both sired by Distorted Humor, have the highest ratings in the field.

Here are horses with Tomlinson ratings over 400:

Any Given Saturday - 458
Cowtown Cat - 454
Zanjero - 435
Hard Spun - 412
Curlin - 409

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:04 AM

Placing my bet on Any Given Saturday as the winning horse! Good Luck all!

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:11 AM

Up until last year no horse had won with a more than 4 week layoff prior to the Derby since 1955. Barbaro broke that jinx.

3 years ago, no gelding had ever won the Derby, funny cide broke that jinx.

Just a little info, only 12 of the 25 winners of the BC Juvenile have even run in the Kentucky Derby. A lot of times a horse peaks as a 2 yr old and then everyone catches up to him or he gets injured.

Seeing that no horse has posted a Beyer Speed Rating within 5 pts of Street Sense tells me that the rest of the class has not caught up to him yet.

And as stated earlier, Street Sense is a horse for the course. He absolutely loves this race track, winning the BC Juvenile here by 10 lengths with a Beyer figure of 108. He has also posted 2 bullet workouts here over the last 2 weeks.

While I believe in angles, I also have to have some concrete evidence that the angle makes sense. The BC Juvenile jinx is just a coincidence while the jinx that Curlin has to overcome makes a lot of sense (No unraced 2 yr old has won the Derby since the 1800's) because of how the horses need to be prepared for this race, the first time they are going 1 1/4 miles.

Yet again---- on Street Sense...no horse ever won the Derby off a Juvenile
Stakes race.

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:14 AM

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Trainer Todd Pletcher has five horses. Steve Asmussen, Bill Kaplan, Darrin Miller, and Doug O'Neill each have two. But all anyone will want to know about the 133rd Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs is who will be the one.

A full field of 20 is entered in the Derby, and handicappers will find it a truly challenging race. There are horses with proven form - such as 2-year-old champion Street Sense, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner - and a horse whose brilliance may overcome his lack of experience, the unbeaten Curlin. Three horses - Nobiz Like Shobiz, Street Sense, and Tiago - are trained by gentlemen who already have stood in the Derby winner's circle. Eight - Dominican, Great Hunter, Hard Spun, Imawildandcrazyguy, Liquidity, Sedgefield, Storm in May, and Teuflesberg - are in the hands of trainers who have never run in the Derby.

Many of the leading contenders have some history going against them. Curlin, the Arkansas Derby winner, is trying to become the first horse since 1882 to win the Derby without racing at age 2, and the first since 1915 to win the race with three starts or fewer. Street Sense is trying to become the first winner of the Juvenile to capture the Derby, and the first 2-year-old champ to win the Derby since 1979. Street Sense is also trying to become the first horse to win the Derby with two starts or fewer at age 3 since Sunny's Halo in 1983, a streak that Circular Quay, Great Hunter, and Stormello will also try to break.

When Barbaro won last year's Derby, he became the first horse in 50 years to win the race off a layoff of five weeks or more. This year, Imawildandcrazyguy, Scat Daddy, and Stormello are coming in off five-week layoffs, Hard Spun has not run in six weeks, and Circular Quay has not run in eight weeks.

Compounding factors are that Dominican, Great Hunter, Street Sense, Teuflesberg, and Zanjero each made his last start on the synthetic surface Polytrack, and Sedgefield has never raced on dirt, the surface at Churchill Downs.

All of them will be trying 1 1/4 miles for the first time.

And there is the possibility that the Derby could be run on an off track. A steady, soaking rain was hovering in the area on Thursday morning, and according to the Weather Channel, occasional thunderstorms were forecast from Thursday through Saturday. There is a 30 percent chance of rain on Saturday, with a high temperature of 79 degrees.

The Derby is the 10th race on a 12-race card that begins at 11 a.m. Eastern. The listed post time for the Derby is 6:04 p.m. The race will be seen live on NBC on a two-hour telecast beginning at 4:30 p.m. A crowd of more than 150,000 is expected at Churchill Downs, including Queen Elizabeth II of England.

If all 20 start in the Derby, the gross purse will be $2,210,000, with $1,450,000 to the winner.

Curlin and Street Sense figure to vie for favoritism. Mike Battaglia, the linemaker at Churchill Downs, has Curlin a slight favorite on his morning line. Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, made Street Sense the favorite.

Curlin is the least experienced horse in the race. Asmussen, his trainer, is hoping talent trumps experience.

"This is what makes the Derby the Derby - it's his only chance," Asmussen said. "I do not believe the three races or not running as a 2-year-old will be any excuse."

Asmussen also sends out Zanjero, third in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Street Sense was a 10-length winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile six months ago at Churchill Downs, where he is based with Carl Nafzger, who trained 1990 Derby winner Unbridled. Nafzger for years has shown the ability to bring a horse to a peak performance on a big day following a below-par final prep. So even though Street Sense was defeated last time out in the Blue Grass, his subsequent brilliant works here are a tipoff that he will be a formidable foe.

Nafzger is confident.

"Just show me daylight," he said this week, "and I'll rest my case."

Nobiz Like Shobiz, the Wood Memorial winner, and Tiago, the Santa Anita Derby winner, are the other horses whose trainers have won the Derby. Barclay Tagg, the trainer of Nobiz Like Shobiz, did it in 2003 with Funny Cide. John Shirreffs, the trainer of Tiago, did it with Tiago's half-brother Giacomo in 2005.

Nobiz Like Shobiz added blinkers for the Wood, and Tagg stuffed cotton in his ears to limit distractions. Asked if he was worried about the over-the-top atmosphere of the Derby getting to Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tagg said, "I just worry if he can go a mile and a quarter."

"He seems like the right type of horse to do it, but that extra eighth of a mile stops a lot of them," Tagg said.

If Tiago wins, his dam, Set Them Free, will become the first dam to produce two Derby winners.

Pletcher, the Eclipse Award-winning trainer three years running, has five chances to win his first Derby; he has been second twice in the last six years. His five starters - Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat, Sam P., and Scat Daddy - equal a Derby record held by D. Wayne Lukas and Nick Zito.

"I really believe these horses are all going to run a good race," Pletcher said. "If that's good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, that's the question we're going to find out."

O'Neill sends out Great Hunter, third in last year's Juvenile to Street Sense, and Liquidity. Kaplan, who trains just eight horses at Calder, has two longshots, Imawildandcrazyguy and Storm in May. Miller has Dominican, the Blue Grass winner, and the longshot Sedgefield.

The race's early action may come from the middle of the gate, with Hard Spun in post 8 and Teuflesberg in post 10. Hard Spun smoked through a five-furlong workout in 57.60 seconds on Monday.

"I know what they're saying - the cowboy blew it," said Hard Spun's trainer, Larry Jones. "All that's left," he said, joking, "is to put the Band-Aids on and try to get him there."

Jamie Sanders, who trains and co-owns Teuflesberg, is seeking to become the first woman to train a Derby winner. Teuflesberg likes to race near the lead, but he is a notoriously bad gate horse. How he breaks could affect the pace, as well as the chances of those alongside him, Bwana Bull and Liquidity.

At that point, when the gate opens, the focus will be on all 20 runners. Two minutes later, it will be down to one. The one who wears the roses.

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:15 AM

One guys attitude on the race!

The big trifecta part wheel
Every year a couple of my buddies and I get together and put in about $100 apiece to try and hit the tri. 2 years ago we mised out on probably the largest tri in KD history even though we had all the horses. It came down to the last horse we were putting in the win position and our choices were narrowed down to 2 (Sun King and Giacomo). We, of course, chose Sun King and then Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1, with Closing Argument 2nd at about 60-1 (had him in 2nd and 3rd position) with one of horses we pegged for the top position 3rd (Afleet Alex).

This year the 4 of us are spending $90 each as this ticket costs $360.

3/7/12/14/18
with
3/7/8/12-16/18/19
with
3/7/8/12-16/18/19

We have Zanjero, Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, and Any Given Saturday in the win position and then added 5 other contenders (Hard Spun, Sam P, Tiago, Ciruclar Quay, and Dominican) along with our win horses for 2nd and 3rd.

Basically, as long as one of five on top win, we will hit the trifecta if the following horses don't hit the board
Cowtown Cat
Curlin
Great Hunter
Liquidity
Stormello
Tueflesberg
Bwana Bull
Storm In May
Sedgefield
Imawildandcrazyguy

If one of our win horses scratch, we will replace on top with Sam P.
If one of our other horses scratch, we will replace with Curlin.

GLTA

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:17 AM

Another thought process!

superfecta
me and 17 other co- workers went together and played this $1 superfecta box($360.00)

#2 curlin
#7 street sense
#8 hard spun
#12 nobiz like showbiz
#14 scat daddy
#18 any given saturday

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:18 AM

FADE DOSAGE & DUAL QUALIFIER ???
None in 9 last winners. This year's group.

Street sense
scat Daddy
Circular Quay
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Great Hunter
Stormello
Any Given Sunday
Liquidity

http://www.horsehats.com/KentuckyDerbyBetting.html

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:32 AM

Regarding Curlin, no horse has won the Derby, that did not
run as a 2 yr old, since 1950

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 01:33 AM

Circular Quay
is still my pick and more so after the draw. Pletcher said of the 5 horses that he was starting, post position mattered the least for Circular Quay but John Velazquez wanted outside. The Pletcher/Velazquez team brought 55-1 Invisible Ink to a 2nd place finish in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. Circular Quay is the son of 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. I had Thunder Gulch picked to win that day and I am looking for a repeat performance.
I believe that a nice trifecta is brewing for this race. The favorite seldom wins the Kentucky Derby and Asmussen said he would have prefered to be farther outside with Curlin. I don't think he will be better than 5th but Street Sense and Nobiz Like Shobiz can get there. There are many longshots in this race that can light the board. You can't afford to box them all and there are very few that can safely be eliminated.
I don't understand why Scat Daddy is 10-1. He is in perfect position for this race. Hard Spun and Tiago are 15-1 on the ml and are both very capable of winning. Any Given Saturday and Dominican probably got hurt with the outside positions but Great Hunter on the far outside is still a threat. There are others that you can't leave out of a trifecta if you want to cash the big one including Bwana Bull who could sneak in to show and make you quit playing trifectas forever if you didn't include him.
I will be playing Circular Quay across the board and if I decide to play a trifecta I will wheel him in all positions with other picks. He will have to light the board for me to cash.
Good luck to all. I will be working that day (as every day) so I won't see the race.

**goldencontender** · 05-05-2007, 03:04 AM

spear, you know what keeps me off stree sense? he has only 2 prep races, and i know theres only been one winner in the last 60 years to win with that few 3 years old races- i think it was sunnys halo- other than that the usual derby winner has an avg 109 beyer going into derby, this year the 108 by street is a career best, the only other horse whose battle tested and is almost as fast as him is anygivsat-, and thats who im gonna go with 2 win, ill use street,and some others behind him- the only negative is the 18 post- bol gc-

**Spearit** · 05-05-2007, 09:31 AM

GC- I agree but remember that trends can be bucked! History does not support a favorite to win and on top of that- not enuff races to define a winner in the K.D. I do not have Street Sense or Curlin in the top position. Sneaking in the winners circle can be one of six horses. Any given Saturday is my pick to be on top with a sloppy track!!!!!!!!

Read this analysys on the race- of course- as most they have these two at the top. Now if you remember- Barbaro had the winning percentage entering the race last year- and I was all over it--- but this year the public likes whoever has not een defeated or near the top in racing form from a previous race.

(2) CURLIN (Asmussen Steven M/Albarado R J)

If you had told someone that the morning line favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby would be a horse that has had only three career races in the last three months, they would think you were out of your mind. Curlin is on the brink of silencing any critics that say it is impossible to overcome 217 years of history. A horse named Apollo was the last one to win the Kentucky Derby without a race as a two year old. The great filly Regret, was the last horse to win the Derby off only three races.
Thoroughbred racing has changed dramatically in recent years. Many factors that you would use to handicap the Derby in the past are not etched in stone in the present. Pedigree, dosage, time between races, and training regimens by old fashioned horseman were the main tools which handicappers focused their attention on. The biggest change in the last couple of years is the switch from the conventional dirt track to a new synthetic racing surface called polytrack. There are many advantageous to polytrack but the major factor is if horses can reproduce their form from one surface to another. An example of this is how do you properly evaluate the outcome of the Bluegrass stakes at Keeneland, run over the polytrack for the first time? The winner Dominican won his third straight race on polytrack. He is 0-4 in his four other dirt starts. Last years dominant Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense was beaten a nose. He is now winless in both his races over polytrack while all three of his wins have been on dirt. Conventional wisdom says that Dominican will not repeat on dirt at Churchill while Street Sense should be forgiven for his effort in the Bluegrass. Meanwhile, as soon as these two hit the finish line, Street Sense future book odds went up and Dominican went down. Before polytrack was installed at Keeneland, inside speed was dominant every meet. With the change to polytrack last year, only one horse the entire meet went wire to wire. This spring’s meet was much the same. Handicappers are in a quandary trying to decide how these horses will perform next time out when shipped to other track surfaces.

In Curlin’s case, his form can only be evaluated based on all three of his winning efforts on dirt. In each race, he crushed his opposition, showing big improvement each time. Very few horses break their maidens first asking the way Curlin did on Feb 3 going 7f at Gulfstream. Following that race, Curlin was privately purchased for big money and transferred over to trainer Steve Asmussen, one of the best horsemen in the land. Asmussen wasted no time, shipping Curlin to Oaklawn Park for the Grade 3 Rebel stakes. He was stretching out to two turns for the first time. The result was the same but even more impressive. In his debut, Curlin wired the field. In the Rebel, he rated comfortably in mid pack, and then made a monster wide move on the turn, In the stretch he blew away the field as if they were tied to a pole. Off that effort, Curlin was sent off the odds on favorite in the prestigious Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Just as he did in the Rebel, Curlin rated nicely while saving ground. Midway on the far turn, jockey Robbie Albarado, nudged him a little, and Curlin took off, winning by 10 ½ lengths under a hand ride. It was one of the most visually impressive performances I have ever seen.

Critics of Curlin will point out that history is against him and that he beat a very weak field in the Arkansas Derby. I feel you have to look beyond this and examine more important issues than the simple ones being echoed. My strength is as visual handicapper first, then taking other handicapping factors in consideration afterwards. What I loved most about Curlin’s effort was the way he hit the ground with a smooth and fluid motion. He did it effortlessly. When I watched the head on shot, Curlin switched leads at the perfect time turning for home. Through the stretch he raced three paths off the inside, while keeping a straight line to the wire. This is not common for a horse not to drift out or in a bit down the lane. What all this means is that Curlin, with only three races under his belt, is already a professional and mature horse who is as sound physically as a horse can be.

With many questions marks surrounding the major contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby, Curlin is the wild card. No one really knows how good this colt is. In the hands of Steve Asmussen, anything and everything is possible. NOTE: Curlin had an outstanding four furlong workout on Monday. He galloped out powerfully past the wire. Based on all three of his starts in which he has finished up full of run and his workout, I feel that 1 ¼ miles is well within his scope.

(7) STREET SENSE (Nafzger Carl A/Borel C H)

Street Sense was just another runner when he entered the starting gate at Churchill Downs on November 4 to contest the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Dispatched at odds of 15-1 that day, nothing was much expected from this homebred runner. However, when the dust had finally settled, Street Sense had demolished the competition in the juvenile, and emerged as the leading two-year-old in 2006.
Owned by his breeder, James B. Tafel, Street Sense unleashed an ”Arazi like” move in the Juvenile leaving the far turn to place himself in contention. Trained by Carl Nafzger, who saddled Unbridled to win the Kentucky Derby in 1990, Street Sense blew past the beleaguered pacesetters shortly after entering the stretch, and was four lengths in front by the time he passed the eighth pole. He continued to pad his lead with every stride, eventually winning by a commanding ten length margin in racehorse time. While Street Sense flew under everyone’s radar prior to his break out performance, he would now have the distinction as the early-bird favorite for the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

A son of Street Cry, Street Sense collected an Eclipse Award for his spectacular effort in Louisville. He would also be saddled with the so-called “Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx”, as no horse who has been victorious in the Juvenile has been able to win the Run for the Roses the following year. Street Sense made his belated three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 17. The two-year-old champ wasn’t even the favorite in that race, as that honor was bestowed upon Any Given Saturday. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Any Given Saturday boasted a recent winning race over the track in addition to a tactical edge over his chief rival. However, none of that mattered. Street Sense slipped through along the inside to seize command in the stretch, and then won a stirring stretch duel over Any Given Saturday by a head bob. Street Sense’s connections were delighted not only with his victory that day, but the fact that he received some much-needed conditioning which was a bonus.

A deserving favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14, Street Sense was merely a shell of his former self over the Polytrack surface. Racing wide while tracking a snail-like pace down the backstretch, Street Sense was carried out during the stretch run when he was set down for the drive by jockey Calvin Borel. Conspicuous by its absence was Street Sense’s potent late kick. He ducked-in a bit under heavy pressure from Borel, and was one-paced to the wire. Still, he finished with good energy, losing only by a scant nose in a tight photo finish.

Without question, Street Sense was not in his comfort zone at Keeneland, losing ground throughout while chasing a slow pace over the Polytrack surface. At times during the stretch, he appeared as if he was merely spinning his wheels over the all-weather surface, but persevered nevertheless. He is now 0 for 2 at Keeneland, but returns to what could arguably be his favorite traditional dirt track, Churchill Downs. Street Sense has run four races around two turns. He is perfect over conventional dirt tracks, and he looks to keep that record unblemished in the Kentucky Derby.

Undoubtedly, the pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby will be in stark contrast to the one he encountered in the Blue Grass. Street Sense will lay a lot farther off what should be a much quicker pace in the Derby. Borel with obviously let him relax early while attempting to save ground, affording him every opportunity to make full use of his come-from-behind style of running. Street Sense has yet to attain the level of excellence that he demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. To be fair, he has only had two chances since that race. He makes his third start off the layoff in the Derby, and could possibly deliver another sparkling effort over the track where he shined last year. He appears to be on the brink of delivering an explosive performance, and should things fall that way, not only can he win this race, but he can do so by a daylight margin. NOTE: Street Sense last two workouts at Churchill Downs have been nothing less than spectacular.

(12) NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (Tagg Barclay/Velasquez Cornelio)

The day Nobiz Like Shobiz was to make his debut going a mile at Belmont Park on September 9, I was watching a TV show filmed from upstate New York. The guest that morning was Barclay Tagg, trainer of Nobiz. He said that this was a very special colt, one of the best 2 year olds he had ever trained. That was strong words from a horseman who has had great success throughout his career and has won a Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide. No Biz was making his debut going a one turn mile against a decent field of maidens. Nevertheless, a horse could not be more impressive winning first time out than this son of Albert The Great.
Nobiz Like Shobiz stamped himself as a potential star off that one race. It would not be long before he proved that he was in his next two starts. He was beaten less than a length stepping up from his maiden win into the prestigious Grade 1 Champagne and then once again crushed the field in the Grade 2 Remson in his first start around two turns. Nobiz certainly would have been one of the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but Tagg opted to skip the race and point for his three year old campaign which I felt was a smart move.

He returned February 3rd at Gulfstream Park back at a one turn mile. He did not disappoint with a game win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Nobiz was back with a vengeance and following that victory, he became the future book favorite for the run for the roses. Despite running third in his next start as the odds on favorite in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth, Nobiz ran better than it looks on paper. He was bumped at the start, and steadied on the first turn. He rated behind a quick pace then made a menacing move midway on the turn. For some reason he appeared to lose his focus at the top of the stretch dropping back a bit while between horses. At that point it did not look for a second that he was going to come again to get the victory. With about 100 yards to go, Nobiz found another gear, finishing up strong but beaten a half length by Scat Daddy whom he beat by three lengths in the Holy Bull. His performance took on added importance when you take into consideration the fact that he raced wide against a strong speed inside bias.

Tagg wasted no time adding blinkers following the Fountain Of Youth. Nobiz trained very well with the hood as he prepared for the Grade 1 Wood Memorial back at Aqueduct, the scene of his powerful victory as a two year old in the Remson. With his new hood and cotton inserted in both ears, Nobiz was all biz with a game victory as the odds on favorite. Skeptics who wrote him off when losing the Fountain Of Youth, were back on his bandwagon.

Obviously this is a very talented horse, possibly the most talented in this year’s Kentucky Derby field. Nevertheless, there are serious question marks concerning his effectiveness going 1 ¼ mile in a big field with an expected lively pace. Despite having won four of his six career starts with a second and third place finish, in each of those six races, he still shows me some immaturity. Nobiz clearly is at his best when he is able to bust the race open at the top of the stretch as he did in winning his maiden race and the Remson. It’s a different story when he is set down as the field turns for home and there are horses challenging for the lead inside and outside of him. He begins to lose his focus and has to work that much harder to fight on to the finish. What he will face in the Derby with many horses jockeying for position early on and then making their moves midway on the turn. It is possible that Nobiz could have the lead turning for home which will play to his strength, but I am predicting that he will wait on horses and be forced to battle hard through the lane. He cannot lose his focus and the “greenness” he still displays must be put behind him. Blinkers were added in the Wood Memorial. The verdict is still out whether or not they really helped him. He stalked the leaders from the start, but still appeared a bit rank. Once again this can not happen Saturday or else Nobiz will not win. NOTE: Nobiz has been training very well at Belmont Park while equipped with blinkers on.

(14) SCAT DADDY (Pletcher Todd A/Prado E S)

Last year, the major knock concerning Barbaro’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby were tied to the fact that he had not raced since winning the Florida Derby, meaning that he would be idle for five weeks before attempting to win the Run for the Roses. No horse had accomplished that feat in the past, and as a result, he was summarily dismissed by many handicappers. Barbaro silenced his detractors in the Derby with an impressive daylight victory. Scat Daddy will attempt to catch lightning in a bottle in 2007, returning to the racing wars off a professional victory in the Florida Derby on March 31.
One of the leading juvenile runners in 2006, Scat Daddy failed miserably at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. Making his sophomore debut for trainer Todd Pletcher on February 3 in the Holy Bull Stakes, he ran creditably to finish third, his first start off the layoff. He would need to show improvement off that effort if he was going to be successful against top competition. Scat Daddy showed remarkable progress in his next start, with a determined come-from-behind victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. He overcame an inside speed bias in the process. The son of Johannesburg rallied determinedly in the stretch to win by a nose over Stormello and Nobiz Like Shobiz. Scat Daddy once again rose to the occasion in the Grade 1 Florida Derby in late March, with yet another fine tactical victory. He rallied to the lead in midstretch and edged away slowly, enroute to his second successive win at nine furlongs.

A runner who was once thought to have distance limitations, Scat Daddy has certainly proven his mettle over a route of ground. Without question, he is at his absolute best when afforded the opportunity to “sit and pounce” and rate outside of horses. He has enough tactical speed to handle whatever pace scenario he is confronted with as well as his ability to persevere no matter what circumstances are present. Whether or not he will be as effective at ten furlongs remains to be seen. That said, this is one runner who gives you his all every time he sets foot on a racetrack against good fields. All these qualities make him a major contender. NOTE: Scat Daddy has been training in bar shoes. He will not be equipped with them come Derby day. Many people would consider any horse who wears bar shoes, whether it is in workout or a race a major negative. I do not when it comes to Scat Daddy. Since May of his two year old campaign, Scat Daddy has trained in bar shoes. In each race they were removed. All five of his wins, four in Graded stakes, have been accomplished with this training regiman.

(3) ZANJERO (Asmussen Steven M/Bridgmohan S X)

This colt is an uncoupled mate of Curlin, one of the favorites to win the Derby. Both are trained by superb conditioner Steve Asmussen. Zanjero has shown steady improvement in his last three starts as a three year old. He was a well beaten second to Nobiz Like Showbiz in last year’s Remson, but nobody was going to beat him that day. Zanjero made his three year old debut in the Grade 3 Risen Star. He broke from a tough outside post then made a huge middle move from far back while very wide throughout. I was expecting a better performance in his next start, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Once again Zanjero was taken far back early. He sustained a decent rally from midway on the far turn to the wire, but had no punch late. His final prep for the Derby came in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. Zanjero’s third place finish was better than it appears. The pace could not have gone any slower. He found himself stalking along the inside. Zanjero was beaten only a head, in a blanket finish but again had no late punch. That had more to do with a change in running style. Zanjero clearly prefers to take back well off the pace and make one run. He will get much faster fractions in the Derby and therefore will find himself where he wants to be. He will be completely overlooked in the wagering. It is unlikely that Zanjero would need to make a big move forward to upset the field. He is an interesting horse to hit the board at a big big price.

(16) CIRCULAR QUAY (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)

Circular Quay, a homebred runner owned by Michael and Doreen Tabor, attained his first measure of prominence with an electrifying come-from-behind win in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes last summer at Saratoga. Racing in a different zip code as the pacesetters butted heads on the front end, Circular Quay uncorked a powerful burst of late foot to reach contention leaving the far turn. He quickly joined the leaders nearing the eighth pole and then drew clear to a 4 1/4 length victory.
That winning effort stamped him as one of the leaders of the sophomore division, but it would be some time before he would reacquaint himself with the winner’s circle. Circular Quay was a commendable second to Street Sense in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November, despite losing by 10 lengths. He was forced to rally from last place after being virtually eliminated at the break. He improved his position against the grain of an inside speed biased track, and obviously would have been closer with a better trip and a fairer track. A son of Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch, Circular Quay was off-the-board in his sophomore debut on Feb. 10 in the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds. He was stopped cold while in the midst of his rally as jockey John Velazquez steered him clear to avoid trampling over a fallen rider. Despite that incident, he somehow managed to recapture his stride and finished a respectable fifth. I’m sure that was not the race that Todd Pletcher had in mind for his top three-year-old.

Circular Quay had now been beaten three times in as many starts around two turns, and the whispers were rampant that he was nothing more than a late-running sprinter. Circular Quay quickly silenced the skeptics with a devastating late burst of speed to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by more than two lengths. Breaking alertly from the rail and without a straw in his path, Circular Quay picked off runners one-by-one down the backstretch and around the far turn. He challenged eventual runner-up Ketchikan for the lead at the midstretch point, and left that rival in his wake as he drew clear with complete authority.

A dyed-in-the-wool closer, Circular Quay enters the Kentucky Derby off nearly a two-month break, a difficult task to be sure. His ability to emerge victorious today may be directly attributed a clean trip and/or a lively and contentious pace scenario, which is vital to set-up his late run. Deep closers usually need everything to fall their way in order to be successful, and Circular Quay is no different. He would definitely profit if the race falls apart during the late stages, as his closing kick would even be more enhanced with quick fractions, particularly in a race where many contenders are suspect at 1 1/4 miles. In the end, whether he emerges victorious today may not be tied to his ability, but rather the kind of trip he gets, in what can be one of the most roughly run races at times.

(20) GREAT HUNTER (O'neill Doug/Nakatani C S)

Despite being soundly trounced by Street Sense in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November at Churchill Downs, Great Hunter was still considered to be one of the leading juvenile runners of 2006. Prior to his Breeders’ Cup effort, Great Hunter acquired a measure of notoriety with his game off-the-pace victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on October 7 while making his initial foray around two turns. Forced to steady a bit early on and overcome a bumping incident as well, Great Hunter still managed to lodge a strong rally leaving the far turn. His sustained bid propelled him to the lead in the stretch, and when the Polytrack finally settled after the race, the West Coast invader had emerged with a 1 3/4 length victory.
Despite being well-beaten to conclude his two-year-old campaign, Great Hunter was bet down to odds-on favoritism when he returned in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita on March 3. This time, Great Hunter did not disappoint. The Doug O’Neill trained sophomore overcame a bit of a wide trip, uncorking a powerful burst of speed leaving the far turn to reach contention. His forward momentum carried him to the front in the stretch, and he maintained a clear advantage to the wire. Great Hunter showed noticeable improvement off the layoff, clearing the first hurdle of his three-year-old season with style. However, much tougher obstacles lie ahead him in the not to distant future.

In his next start, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Great Hunter was the second choice in the wagering, with Street Sense installed as the post time favorite. With a snail-like pace to contend with in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, jockey Corey Nakatani found himself stalking the crawling fractions. A horse that likes to make a swooping late run, Great Hunter was quite clearly out of his element pressing the pace. As a result, he was unable to quicken was asked by Nakatani. He had been taken out of his game plan by tracking the sluggish fractions. While attempting to rally in the stretch, Great Hunter was forced to steady a bit approaching the 1/16 pole, but it didn’t really matter as he was just not himself with the change in tactics.

While Great Hunter would live to fight another day, this is not the type of effort you want from your horse as he prepares to contest the Kentucky Derby. While Great Hunter is a talented individual, he has yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles, and that does not bode well for him today as he returns to Churchill Downs. A runner who is at his best when able to sit and make one run, how effective he will be at ten furlongs is certainly a question mark. His late kick has been quite useful at shorter distances while receiving the most optimal setups. In my opinion, Great Hunter will be severely tested today against much more accomplished rivals, and would have to be at his absolute best to have a chance of hitting the board at the demanding 1 1/4 mile distance.

(18) ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (Pletcher Todd A/Gomez G K)

Off his three two year old races, I was of the opinion that this $1.1 million dollar yearling purchase was one to keep a close eye on as potential Kentucky Derby contender. Any Given Saturday broke his maiden first asking breaking from an outside post in a field of eleven at the 5 ½ furlong distance. Based on his long winded pedigree, he showed he was quality colt to win at this distance. He scored easily in his next start stretching out to two turns. Both races were on polytrack at Turfway Park and Keeneland. Any Given Saturday would get his stiffest test stepping up into a Grade 2 stake in his final start as a two year. This would be his first start on a conventional dirt track at Churchill Downs, while facing a quality and more seasoned runner in Tis Wonderful. Despite a wide trip throughout, he was only beaten a half length by that rival.
I was anxiously awaiting Any Given Saturday’s first start as a three year old. That came nearly three months later in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Despite not being more than 75 % fit going into the race as trainer Todd Pletcher indicated, he won ridden out against a modest field. Following that race, a major interest was sold to Win Star farm for an amount way above his yearling price. Any Given Saturday had gotten a good sharpener for his next race, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. This race would be a true barometer of his ability as he would face last year’s two year old champion, Street Sense, who was making his three year old debut. The Tampa Bay Derby was clearly a two horse race and that was how it was run, with Street Sense winning by a scant nose. Both horses ran extremely well. Street Sense sat a perfect rail trip, but showed how gritty he is by eking out a win over a horse that had the advantage of a race over the track. I felt that jockey John Velazquez who was aboard Any Given Saturday finessed him to much. With a more aggressive ride, he would have won. Nevertheless he had proven that he was a potential Kentucky Derby winner with loads of talent. Pletcher felt after this race, that he was his best chance to win the run for the roses.

Any Given Saturday would have one more prep race in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct to have him dead fit for the Derby. I felt he would defeat Nobiz Like Showbiz. As the odds on favorite, Any Given Saturday ran a disappointing third. He lacked any kind of strong finish in the final eighth of a mile, running third, beaten nearly four lengths. The second place finisher had only a maiden win to his credit

With a month to recover from that effort, it is really difficult to predict which horse will show up in the Derby. There are two ways to evaluate his performance. Did the Tampa Bay Derby take too much out of him? Did he dislike the Aqueduct main track surface? Was he hindered by racing wide throughout? Could he have had some sort of minor illness which was discovered after that race, but was not disclosed? These are questions very difficult to answer.

Handicappers have short memories and evaluate horses by their last race. Because of this, Any Given Saturday will be ignored at the windows. This was exactly the same scenario last year when Pletcher won with Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby as the heavy favorite, then ran poorly in the Bluegrass stakes at Keeneland. Off that unforgiving effort, Bluegrass Cat went off at very long odds in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a strong second. This could occur again with Any Given Saturday. Regular rider John Velazquez has opted to ride the Pletcher trained Circular Quay. New rider Garrett Gomez will get the call. I am not concerned by this rider change. I have seen many times that Velazquez will jump off a horse he has ridden for another Pletcher runner and the other one wins. A matter of fact, I prefer Gomez as a rider over Velazquez. He is a stronger finisher and a more aggressive jockey. Velazquez is more of a finesse rider, a style which I feel does not suit Any Given Saturday. His best chance to win the Derby is to take back further off the pace than he has been in his last two starts. If Gomez can have him nice and relaxed until he asks his mount for his run approaching the stretch, I feel that he has a chance to be a factor. My main concern is that Any Given Saturday had every chance to beat Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby and could not. He had every chance to run second in the Wood and could not. His final workout for the Derby was good but he did not gallop out that strong. All three factors concern me about his ability to win at 1 ¼ miles.

If for some reason the track comes up wet, his chances of winning increases. He has the best wet track pedigree of any horse in the Derby field. Any Given Saturday has worked very well on many occasions over wet surfaces.

(19) DOMINICAN (Miller Darrin/Bejarano R)

I could sum up Dominican with one sentence; “He is a significantly better horse on Polytrack than he is over traditional dirt surfaces”. Purchased for $150,000 as a two-year-old, this gelded son of El Corredor has yet to taste defeat over a “synthetic type” track, most recently taking the measure of Street Sense by a nose in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes last month at Keeneland. His last second heroics at the wire were good enough for him to take down the lion’s share of the purse, rallying determinedly from off the pace, while racing widest of all in the stretch. Dominican overcame a lackluster pace scenario to boot.
The conundrum that will beset Dominican in the Kentucky Derby is the reality that he is winless from two starts over the Churchill Downs main track, with one of those races coming against preliminary Allowance runners last fall. The Darrin Miller trained runner finished fourth in that aforementioned effort. He certainly has not been disgraced over conventional dirt surfaces, overcoming a troubled-trip to take down fourth money in the Arlington-Washington Breeders’ Cup Futurity last summer at Arlington Park over a sloppy track. He dispensed a creditable third-place finish later in the year over this track in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Gold Cup, with Tiz Wonderful and Any Given Saturday finishing in front of him in that contest.

That said, the fact he has never won on dirt is problematic for me. Even though Dominican was victorious in the Bluegrass, it was a bizarre race from start to finish because of the “snail” pace. The fractions in the Derby will be much faster, but I do not have a feel that Dominican will be able to duplicate his win in the Derby, even though he can hit the board.

(8) HARD SPUN (Jones J Larry/Pino M G)

As a two-year-old, Hard Spun was one of the leading juveniles in the Mid-Atlantic region, winning all three of his races for trainer Larry J. Jones. As a result, his connections sought greener pastures for him in the New Year, shipping to the Fair Grounds to compete in the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes on January 13.
The LeComte would be Hard Spun’s first race around two turns, and his initial effort against graded stakes competition. The son of Danzig cleared both of those obstacles with aplomb as the even money favorite. Hard Spun wired the field with remarkable ease, rating kindly under jockey Mario Pino and then drawing off at will to win by daylight, while remaining unbeaten in the process. His next target would be the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on February 19. Once again he was dispatched as the odds-on favorite despite breaking from a disadvantageous outside post. Settling into fifth position early, Hard Spun made a menacing middle move to come within shouting distance of the lead. Nevertheless, he could not sustain that bid into the stretch and had to settle for fourth. Reports were abundant that Hard Spun did not handle the Oaklawn Park track all that well, failing to grab a hold of it and extending himself. A change in venue was in order for the Pennsylvania-bred runner, as he would now contest the Grade 2 Lanes End Stakes on March 24 at Turfway Park.

Hard Spun took to the Polytrack surface like a duck takes to water. He overcame an outside post to sit a perfect stalking trip down the backstretch. This time when he was asked by Pino to accelerate leaving the far turn, he responded willingly, drawing away to an insurmountable lead at the midstretch point. He subsequently won by 3 3/4 decisive lengths. Hard Spun was now back on track and set his sights on Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. However, when he missed a critical workout at his home base, Churchill Downs, due to track conditions, that plan had to be scrapped. Trainer Larry Jones wasn’t sure he would he make the Derby, but after a bullet workout on April 12 over a fast Churchill Downs main track, it was full steam ahead.

In his most recent winning effort at Turfway Park, Hard Spun proved that he didn’t need the lead to win. That said, not having raced in forty two days and the fact that he possesses a discriminating taste concerning what track he will run his best race over, is problematic. A horse with obvious talent, he faces an uphill battle stretching out to ten furlongs. While he should make his presence felt, I would be hard pressed to think that he could win at this distance. NOTE: Hard Spun had one of the fastest works ever seen by a Derby horse for as long as I can remember. On April 30, Hard Spun worked :57 3/5 breezing. He worked in company with a Grade 1 filly, and easily disposed of that rival before the work ended. What I did not like to see was how tired he pulled up.

(15) TIAGO (Shirreffs John/Smith M E)

Half brother to 2005 Kentucky Derby upset winner Giacomo, attempts to catch lightning in the bottle once again for trainer John Shirreffs and owner Jerome Moss. There are similarities between the two colts. Both run from off the pace even though Giacomo had less gate speed and more of a grinder. Tiago is more agile and can make that middle move that puts him in contending position entering the stretch. Tiago comes off an upset win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Blinkers were removed that day which seemed to keep him more focused. I felt it was not the blinkers that did the trick that afternoon, but the fast pace which set up his closing rally. The sire of Giacomo was Holy Bull. Tiago’s father is Pleasant Tap who loved a distance of ground. The 1 ¼ mile distance should not hurt Tiago. I can see Tiago possibly getting a piece of the pie, but I just don’t feel he is good enough to be a factor for the win.

(13) SAM P. (Pletcher Todd A/Dominguez R A)

One of five Todd Pletcher trained runners in the Derby and one that I do not like at all. Has two wins, a maiden score and an entry allowance win, both around one turn. Sam P has improved around two turns running second in a Grade 2 stake at Santa Anita and then returned with a solid third in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. As the betting favorite, Sam P forced a quick pace, dropped back on the turn and then came again to finish evenly in the stretch. He will be a pace factor in the Derby, but like several others in this race, he is expected to tire when the real racing begins.

(17) STORMELLO (Currin William/Desormeaux K J)

Except for his maiden loss in his career debut (without lasix) and a fifth place finish in last year’s BC Juvenile, Stormello has been a very consistent performer. Stormello loves the lead but has also run just as effectively stalking the pace. What I have noticed about him is that he prefers to race outside of horses. He appears to have distance limitations. Stormello has yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles, even though he ran very well in the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park, when beaten a nose by Scat Daddy. Stormello is a hard knocking colt who will win stakes races in the future when placed in the right spot. The Kentucky Derby is not one of them.

(6) COWTOWN CAT (Pletcher Todd A/Jara Fernando)

He showed ability as a two year old, but the verdict was out whether or not he could develop into a serious Derby contender when he returned at three. With an easy allowance win and a third place finish in the Grade 2 Swale stakes, both at Gulfstream, it was evident that he had improved. The problem was that both those races were in sprints. He had yet proved he would be just as affective at two turns. The question was answered when Cowtown Cat won the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. His win was over the winterized inner dirt course. He had to prove that he could win on a conventional dirt track. Cowtown Cat shipped to Hawthorne Park and wired the field. He set a very slow pace but finished up fast.
He is not quick enough to take the lead or even force the pace in the Derby. His ability to rate will help him get a position in the first flight of horses. When the field turns for home, Cowtown Cat will make a move, but I find it difficult for him to sustain it. In the final eighth of a mile, it is likely that he will tire.

(1) SEDGEFIELD (Miller Darrin/Leparoux Julien R)

Sedgefield is an uncoupled mate of Dominican, winner of the Blue Grass stakes. Both horses are trainer by Darrin Miller. He has won two of eight starts, one on polytrack and once on the grass. Sedgefield’s best career effort was a solid second place finish in the Grade 2 Lanes End at Turfway Park. He broke from a tough outside post, racing wide throughout. Hard Spun won easily that day, but with a better trip, Sedgefield would have been closer. His last race was in the Grade 3 Transylvania on grass at Keeneland. Sedgefield forced the pace throughout, tiring in the final eighth of a mile. I feel he is best rating and then pouncing. In all three of his starts at 1 1/8 miles, he has lost ground in the stretch. I cannot consider him a win factor, because he does not appears to be a horse who will be effective at 1 ¼ miles.

(4) STORM IN MAY (Kaplan William A/Leyva J C)

Storm In May is a speed horse who has shown he can rate just of the leaders if need be. He has four wins, two on grass and two sprinting. He gets neither in the Derby. Storm In May found himself further back than expected in the Arkansas Derby. He was beaten ten lengths by Curlin, but could have been further back than that of Albarado on Curlin has been hard urged late to extend his margin. Storm In May has no shot winning the Derby. He is not even likely to beat half the field at a distance which is much further than what he wants.

(9) LIQUIDITY (O'neill Doug/Flores D R)

Liquidity is an uncoupled mate of Cobalt Blue. Both are trained by California based horseman Doug O’Neill. Liquidity broke his maiden in his debut and since that race, he has yet to win, despite solid efforts in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, the Grade 3 Sham and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He has shown a tendency to be a little head strong early on, and then moves up quickly to force the pace. The major flaw for this colt is that in all six starts against winners, he has lost ground from the eighth pole to the wire. Facing a much stiffer pace and a full field of twenty, Liquidity will be a factor for a mile, but after that, he is likely to tire badly.

(10) TEUFLESBERG (Sanders Jamie/Elliott S)

Teuflesberg gets into the race with the defections of Xchanger and Cobalt Blue. It would have been better for him if those two elected to run. His fourth place finish in the Bluegrass, beaten only a neck, was not nearly as good as it might look on paper. Teulflesberg set a snail pace which gave him every advantage over the other off the pace runners, who had to adjust to a very different pace scenario, than what was anticipated. He is most effective as a sprinter and up to mile. Tueuflesberg is unlikely to last even a mile in the Derby. If I could wager on which horse will run last, I would be tempted to place some money on this colt.

(5) IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY (Kaplan William A/Guidry M)

Sneaks into the Derby because of two late defections. It’s too bad, because he is being thrown to the wolfs with no chance at all. He has won two races, one a maiden win sprinting and the other in an optional claimer in a five horse field. Imawildandcrazyguy was long odds in the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby. In both races he passed tired and overmatched rivals late. He will make a late run in the Derby which will help him pass speed horses who figure to back up badly in the stretch. He is just not good enough to be a factor at the finish.

(11) BWANA BULL (Hollendorfer Jerry/Castellano J J)

Bwana Bull was scratched out of the Derby Trial last Saturday in favor of the Kentucky Derby. It was not unexpected because he has been racing around two turns whereas the Trial is around one. Prior to the Santa Anita Derby in his last start, Bwana Bull had reeled off three strong wins at Golden Gate and Bay Meadows. In the Santa Anita Derby he did not fire at all in the stretch and actually lost ground. He had a good post and got a fast pace to close into. Off that effort in his first start at 1 1/8 miles, it is very difficult to consider him a contender on Saturday, especially at the 1 ¼ mile distance.

A Wagering Strategy
The key to making money on any particular race is how you structure your wagering tickets. In this case I have selected the two morning line favorites. This does not concern me at all because it is how I plot out the wager which is the difference between winning and losing.
A win bet on # 2 Curlin.

Equal exacta box 2-7.

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 2 / 7 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 = $10.00.

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 7 / 2 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 = $10.00

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 2 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 / 7 = $10.00

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 7 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 / 2 = $10.00

Total trifecta wager = $40.00

(I have given the trifectas for $1.00 as an example on what each ticket would
cost. The total cost for the trifecta = $40.00. Obviously you can play each
trifecta for a differant amount. Always remember to wager within your own
comfort level).

I have constructed a wagering strategy for trifecta plays using my top two
selections in the first, second and third positions in the tri along with those
horses that I feel have the best chance to complete the trifecta ticket

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